The uncomfortable economics of trying to build a bigger economy on an energy system that still struggles to power the one we have.
Nigeria has set itself a remarkable economic target: to become a $1 trillion economy by 2030. The ambition is embedded in the government’s Renewed Hope Development Plan for 2026-2030, endorsed by the National Economic Council as part of the roadmap towards that goal.
But one question deserves far more attention: What will power the $1 trillion economy? Not metaphorically. Literally. What will power the factories, farms, mines, hospitals, data centres, cold chains, businesses and millions of homes that must participate in producing a much larger Nigerian economy? Because Nigeria’s economic ambition is racing ahead of its electricity reality. Consider one number: 144.
‘The trillion-dollar economy will not arrive as a government announcement. It will emerge from millions of productive decisions: machines running, crops processed, goods manufactured, data transmitted, businesses expanded and investments made.’
According to World Bank data sourced from the International Energy Agency, Nigeria’s electricity consumption was just 144 kilowatt-hours per person in 2023. The global average was 3,558 kWh. Nigeria therefore consumed roughly 4% of the global average per person.
The contrast becomes even sharper among large economies. In 2024, electricity consumption per capita was approximately 12,839 kWh in the United States, 14,093 in Canada, 7,530 in Japan, 6,109 in Germany, 6,447 in France, 4,195 in the UK, 5,137 in Italy and 11,350 in South Korea. China consumed about 6,524 kWh per person in 2023, while India consumed 1,182. Nigeria consumed 144 kWh per person.
The point is not that Nigeria must consume electricity like America or Germany. It cannot-and should not. The point is that large, productive economies require reliable energy at scale. The World Bank estimates Nigeria’s 2025 GDP at about $290.8 billion.
Exchange rates and inflation mean reaching $1 trillion does not require physically tripling everything Nigeria produces. But it does require a dramatically more productive, competitive, and investment-ready economy. And that economy needs energy. GDP is an accounting measure.
Factories do not run on GDP. Electricity does. Manufacturers need power to operate machines. Farmers need it for irrigation and processing. Cold chains need it for refrigeration. Hospitals need it to function. Data centres need it to stay online.
When electricity fails, production suffers. When businesses turn to expensive self-generation, costs rise. The result is a productivity problem disguised as a power problem. Nigeria’s electricity challenge is not simply about building more power plants.