Botswana could face an estimated P26 billion in economic losses from depression between 2025 and 2050, highlighting the growing economic cost of mental health problems. A new global study published in Nature Medicine titled: Global economic burden of depression in 154 countries from 2025 to 2050 estimates the country’s cumulative economic burden from depression at US$1.944 billion, equivalent to about P26.2 billion.
The estimated per-capita burden is US$635, equivalent to about P8,600, with a range of US$512 to US$788, or approximately P6,900 to P10,700. The study measures the cumulative difference in projected economic output between 2025 and 2050 under scenarios with and without depression morbidity. The researchers say reduced labour-force participation and productivity are the main drivers of the economic losses.
The authors state that mental health is projected to impose an economic burden equivalent to 0.293% of gross domestic product over the 2025-2050 period. That places it below several other sub-Saharan African economies on the relative GDP measure, including Lesotho, Uganda and Togo, which face some of the region’s highest projected burdens.
The macroeconomic model measures how depression affects labour participation, productivity, education and the accumulation of human and physical capital. ‘Depression is a leading contributor to the global burden of mental disorders worldwide, as measured by disability-adjusted life years (DALYs),’ states the report.
The researchers say the economic damage is driven primarily by the effect of depression on people’s ability to participate effectively in the workforce. ‘Lower labour force participation stands out as the primary way depression affects the economy,’ they wrote, while the decline in physical-capital investment plays a smaller role.
That finding carries particular significance for younger people, as the study notes that depression typically emerges during adolescence or early adulthood which are years when people are pursuing education, beginning careers and building families. ‘Previous studies have shown that depression is associated with productivity losses through reduced employment, absenteeism, presenteeism and premature mortality,’ states the report.
The authors argue that treating depression should not simply be viewed as an expense. Citing previous evidence, they say every US$1 [P13] invested in scaling up treatment for depression and anxiety can yield a US$4 [P54] return in improved health and productivity. ‘Treatment costs… should be considered strategic investments,’ the authors say.
They also call for mental-health services to be integrated into primary care and for wider access to affordable, evidence-based therapies, saying such measures could improve early intervention and reduce the economic burden.
Globally, the researchers estimate depression will cost the world roughly 0.460% of annual global economic output between 2025 and 2050. Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to bear a 0.493% burden relative to GDP, compared with 0.599% in North America.
Across sub-Saharan Africa, the researchers estimate a combined economic burden of US$375 billion, or about US$229 per person, over 2025-2050. Botswana’s per-capita burden is therefore substantially above the regional average.
The model incorporates the effects of depression on labour-force participation, education and work experience, using data from the World Bank and Global Burden of Disease study. It estimates economic losses through reductions in effective labour supply as well as weaker capital accumulation.