ELECTRICITY demand growth outpaces new supply across major regions, possibly signaling a severe power shortage.
According to officials of the National Grid Corporation of the Philippines (NGCP), power supply across all grids are decreasing.
The Visayas experienced rotational brownouts in 2009. Since then, power demand has increased by up to 165 percent. However, power supply has only increased by up to 130 percent.
‘If you observe from 2019 towards 2026, the supply has become stagnant. As a result, demand growth has now outpaced supply…Visayas really lacks generation,’ said NGCP systems operations manager Erwin Bugawisan.
He said the most immediate solution to address the recurring red and yellow alerts in the Visayas is to restore all power plants in the region.
In Luzon, demand has increased by 118 percent since 2009, while capacity has only grown by 110 percent. ‘Supply is falling behind as well,’ he added.
As for Mindanao, because many new power plants came online after 2019, it is currently able to supply power to the Visayas. However, based on NGCP forecast, Bugawisan said Mindanao’s supply and demand might break even by 2028. ‘If that happens, it will no longer have any excess power to share with the Visayas,’ he said.
NGCP spokesperson Atty. Cynthia Alabanza said that the capacity increase from 2025 to 2026 is largely coming from solar plants or variable renewable energy, which only has a capacity factor of 17 percent based on 2025 data. ‘This means a 100-megawatt plant can only produce around 17 megawatts,’ she said.
On delayed transmission grid projects, Alabanza said the NGCP does not benefit from delaying project completion. ‘It is actually in our best interest to pursue the projects within the timeline. There’s no financial benefit. There is no regulatory benefit, nothing.
If you reduce it only to the engineering part, it can be done in four years. For example, the Mindanao-Visayas Interconnection Project (MVIP). If you strip away the rights-of-way, the permitting, etc….that would really have been done in four years.
NGCP has been given a lot of support, and we are thankful for that…but this is not a static requirement. As we continue to pursue, the problems continue to rise up. We will continue to pursue our projects, to finish within the timeline,’ added Alabanza.