At least 67 per cent of Nigerians are demanding the restoration of the fuel subsidy, a report by geopolitical research firm SBM Intelligence, has disclosed.
In the Wave 2 analysis of the Nigeria 2027 Voter Sentiment Tracker, titled ‘Nigeria 2027: A Narrower Race,’ SBM Intelligence surveyed 1,103 eligible voters through face-to-face interviews across 12 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), representing all six geopolitical zones.
Fieldwork took place in diverse settings, including markets, viewing centers, schools, and hotels in both urban and rural environments.
However, the report cautioned that its sampling frame is a direct snapshot of stated sentiment among the surveyed population and does not adjust for historical turnout, NPC population projections, or INEC voter registration figures, meaning it may not fully capture the complete scale of voter sentiment for the 2027 presidential election.
Petrol has rapidly emerged as a standalone political issue across the country.
It was absent as an issue option in the survey’s first wave, it has jumped to become the second-most cited national problem at 18.2%, the worst-rated issue of the current administration with a performance score of 1.69 out of 4, and the subject of a core policy rejected by nearly seven in ten citizens.
According to the report, ‘It is now the second-most cited national problem at 18.2%, the government’s worst-rated issue at 1.69 out of 4, and the subject of a policy the public rejects by 67.4% to 19.2%.’
Views on petrol vary sharply depending on geography, settlement type, and age cohort. Petrol ranks as the single highest voter’s concern in the Southwest (30.5%) and South-South (29.1%).
Settlement-wise, 32.4% of rural respondents cite petrol as their primary issue, compared to only 11.7% of urban voters.
By age, concern over petrol rises steadily alongside age, starting at 19.6% among youth aged 18 to 24 and reaching 27.6% among respondents over 55.
The report highlighted a split across geopolitical zones regarding the primary issues citizens want fixed ahead of the 2027 polls.
Insecurity remains the top national issue overall, cited heavily in the Southeast (62.6%), Northcentral (47.5%), and Northwest (25.0%). Conversely, the Northeast presents a unique profile, with debt identified as the leading concern at 28.3%, followed by insecurity at 17.1%.
Economic and basic service priorities also shift by region.
In Southwest, petrol leads at 30.5%, followed by the general economy at 20.2%, jobs at 9.0%, and insecurity at 7.9%.
For South-South, petrol leads at 29.1%, followed by the economy at 21.1%, insecurity at 9.3%, and corruption at 7.5%.
In Southeast, insecurity leads overwhelmingly at 62.6%, followed by debt (7.5%), jobs (7.5%), and the economy (5.6%), while in Northcentral, insecurity dominates at 47.5%, followed by the economy (26.5%), jobs (6.5%), and debt (5.5%).
For Northwest, insecurity leads at 25.0%, with petrol following closely at 24.0%, the economy at 16.0%, and electricity at 15.0%.
And in Northeast, debt leads at 28.3%, followed by insecurity (17.1%), health (11.2%), and corruption (9.8%).
Daily Trust reports that President Bola Tinubu has firmly ruled out a return to the petrol subsidy regime, sparking a major political and economic debate as opposition figures advocate for its reinstatement ahead of the 2027 elections.
Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar proposed bringing back a form of subsidy-specifically a production subsidy on locally refined petrol-to lower soaring pump and transport prices.
Petrol prices in Nigeria range from N1,375 to N1,500 per litre under Tinubu’s administration, driven by the removal of the fuel subsidy and floating of the naira.
The price ranged between N185 – N200 per litre before the Tinubu’s presidency, worsening the cost of living crisis in Nigeria.
It would be recalled that the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC), led by President Joe Ajaero, had called for immediate wage awards and structural measures to cushion rising transport costs and safeguard workers’ purchasing power.
In response to market pressures and public complaints, the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) stated on September 19 that it lacks legal backing to fix petrol pump prices, promising instead to step up market surveillance against price-gouging.
Analyst: Nigeria can’t return to fuel subsidy
Emeritus Professor of Petroleum Economics, Wumi Iledare insisted that the era of fuel subsidy is gone.
Instead, he charged the government to deploy the improved resources to cushion the effect of fuel subsidy.
In a chat with Daily Trust, he said, ‘At a time when consumers are facing higher PMS prices and declining purchasing power, government has a legitimate responsibility to use improved fiscal space to mitigate welfare losses – not by returning to an indiscriminate fuel subsidy, but through targeted and transparent interventions that improve transportation, energy access, social protection and productive infrastructure.’