The contest for the Ilorin Government House in February 2027 is revving up by the day, and the contestants appear not to be leaving any stone unturned in their push to succeed Governor Abdulrahman Abdulrazaq. While, to a large extent, political watchers in the state have limited the contest to the two leading candidates. Namely, Engineer Salihu Yakubu Danladi of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and Engineer Bolakale Kawu of the main opposition party, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), there are 11 other political parties in the contest, as announced by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). However, outside the two leading political parties, only the candidate of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), Associate Professor Yinka Ajia, appeared to be showing some visibility compared to the others in the race.
To the chagrin of political enthusiasts in the state, Governor Abdulrazaq, a few days ago, approved the appointment of Alhaji Mashood Mustapha, the former cabinet member and member of the House of Representatives between 2011 and 2015, as the leader of the state’s contingent to the 2027 Muslim pilgrimage in Saudi Arabia.
Before his appointment, Alhaji Mustapha, popularly known as MM, was the PDP candidate for the Kwara Central senatorial district, but the ticket was given to the incumbent officeholder, Senator Saliu Mustapha, who recently defected from the ruling APC to the opposition PDP.
While no one suspected any ill feeling in the candidate swap, the leader of the PDP, Senator Bukola Saraki, and the PDP governorship candidate in the state, Engineer Bolakale Kawu, had visited MM at his Abuja residence after the announcement of Saliu Mustapha as eventual PDP candidate. Even the picture of the visit was circulated in the media, just as MM also did not indicate that he was hurt by the political development.
Hitherto, some political analysts in the state had thought that Saliu Mustapha would give Governor Abdulrazaq a hotter race to run as two were set to lock horns for the Kwara Central senatorial race in 2027. It was thought that the strength of Mustapha informed the decision to drop MM and swap the PDP ticket. But with the Amir Hajj appointment, where MM would coordinate the state’s 2027 Hajj exercise along with other statutory bodies at various levels of government, no one is left in doubt of his allegiance to the leader of the APC in the state, who is Governor Abdulrazaq.
MM, the traditional title holder of the Wakili of Ilorin, is a seasoned entrepreneur, public servant, and community leader. He is the chairman of Crystal Group of Companies. He is an alumnus of Kwara State Polytechnic, Lagos State University, and Rome Business School (Italy), and he is expected to garner votes for all candidates of the APC in the Kwara Central district, where the PDP governorship candidate hails from. Political watchers are keenly waiting to see the effect his decision to team up with Abdulrahman would have on the 2027 general elections.
The ruling APC, which is anchoring its 2027 political campaign on continuity and change, said that the implications of the governorship contest are beyond the search for a successor for Governor Abdulrazaq. According to coordinator of the Kwara North Integrity Youth Forum (KNIYF), Aliyu Likofu, the governorship election represents an opportunity to change the political history of a state where the governorship has never been held by an elected politician from Kwara North since 1999.
‘For the APC, Danladi’s candidacy represents both continuity and change: continuity with the political order established in 2019 and change through the elevation of a younger generation into the race for executive power,’ he said.
On the other hand, the state chairman of the PDP, Mallam Isa Bawa, said that the party is ready to provide improved performance and governance in the state through its flag bearer, Bolakale Kawu, arguing that the opposition party had done it in the state before now.
Mallam Bawa, who said that PDP is already gaining wider acceptance among the people, said that the 2027 general election would offer an opportunity to prove that it is a force to reckon with.
Meanwhile, in his analysis of dynamics that could offer victory to one of the political parties in the 2027 governorship poll, an erudite political commentator, a professor of Political Science, University of Ilorin, Hassan Ajisafe Saliu, said that there are variations in electoral geography of each state of the federation, arguing that the only common national denominator revolves around the poverty level.
The political scientist, who said that what recently happened in Osun State may not be replicated in other states of the federation, added that the Osun electoral geography differs from that of Kwara State in some fundamental ways.
Talking on what he described as Ancestry Politics and Voter Sophistication, the university don said that ancestry politics that defined the Osun election is absent in Kwara State, adding, ‘Kwara is just one of the states.’
‘It is instructive to note that Osun State has a relatively more sophisticated voting population than Kwara State. Until the 2019 general elections, Kwara voters had been made docile on account of historical political antecedents. Regrettably, the 2019 electoral revolution has since been replaced by another era of docility incubated in people’s strong belief in transfer earnings. This means that Kwara voters can vote either way if properly motivated,’ he said.
Professor Saliu also said that Kwara’s politics is defined by three senatorial districts with different power blocs: Kwara Central with the highest votes, Kwara North, and Kwara South.
However, he said that no single district can deliver victory alone, adding that alliances must be built. ‘Political alliances in the state are fluid and unpredictable because of the state’s diversity and sharp ethnic divisions. In Osun State, by contrast, people tend to vote more as a bloc, and swings are often statewide. It’s just like Kwara’s three senatorial districts versus Osun’s Unity,’ he said.
While discussing money politics and vote buying, the university don said that major political parties offered high sums of money during the Osun election.
Relating that scenario to Kwara State, he said that money will be a significant factor, ‘but I doubt the N50k and N100k figures reported in Osun State will be on offer here in Kwara State because of the high stakes of that election.’
‘Politicians will definitely give money to voters, but I am not sure the state can beat the Osun record because of the imposed orientation of the voters,’ he said.
Professor Saliu said that the governorship contest in Kwara State will also fall within the neo-liberal tendency just like that of Osun.
‘Nothing spectacular is on offer to make the election highly interesting and competitive beyond the goal of gaining control and ego. People have argued that there is no fundamental difference between the old order and the current: PDP and APC. A capitalist orientation has driven the state’s actions since 1999 and even before, when the Fourth Republic kicked off. In other words, the Kwara election will be more like an ego war between different sides of the capitalist orientation, engaged in expanding the scope of their political control and the allied benefits that come with it,’ he said.
He also added that most people have not realised this is the simple truth. ‘Moreover, that is why, whichever way the election goes, no fundamental changes may happen unless God takes control. Wherever huge sums of money dominate every step in the political process, the outcome hardly favours the masses. The Kwara case may prove to be different this time around. This represents a challenge to those jostling for elective and appointive positions in the state,’ he added.
Talking about the timing of the election, the political scientist said that one needs to appreciate that the Kwara election will be coming up during the general elections. ‘This means it will not be an isolated election, as the recent Osun election was. As a result, not all eyes will be on it, though current political developments in the state are already drawing attention to it,’ he stated.