Nigeria’s agricultural trade balance has returned to deficit after agricultural exports fell by 36 per cent year-on-year (YoY) to N803 billion in the second quarter of 2026, raising fresh concerns over food security and the country’s growing reliance on imported food.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that agricultural exports accounted for only three percent of Nigeria’s total exports of N27.0 trillion during the quarter, and underscored the sector’s relatively weak contribution to the country’s external earnings despite its huge production potential.
The decline represents a 36 percent YoY and 32 percent quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) deterioration in agricultural trade performance.
The development also highlights the continued dominance of crude oil and refined petroleum products in Nigeria’s export basket. The two categories generated N23.3 trillion in Q2 2026, accounting for about 86 percent of total exports.
Non-oil exports, excluding crude oil and petroleum products, stood at only N3.7 trillion, representing about 14 per cent of total exports.
The agricultural sector remains central to the Federal Government’s economic diversification strategy because of its extensive value chain and potential to generate non-oil export earnings, create jobs and reduce the dependence on imported food.
However, the latest trade figures suggest that the sector is yet to fully realise this potential.
The leading agricultural export commodities in Q2 were cashew nuts in shell, standard-quality cocoa beans and sesame seeds, with export values of N286.6 billion, N154.3 billion and N96.0 billion, respectively.
While agricultural exports weakened, imports moved sharply in the opposite direction.
The NBS data showed that the country’s agricultural import bill rose by 45 percent QoQ and two percent YoY to N1.2 trillion in Q2.
Consequently, the agricultural sector recorded a net trade deficit of N400.8 billion, reversing the surplus recorded in the preceding quarter.
The reversal points to persistent supply-side weaknesses in domestic agriculture, including low productivity, insecurity in major food-producing areas, post-harvest losses, inadequate storage and weak processing capacity.
It also suggests that domestic production remains insufficient to meet demand for several key food and agricultural commodities, forcing consumers and businesses to rely increasingly on imports.
The renewed deficit comes amid continuing food-security concerns across the country.
According to the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), an estimated 36.3 million Nigerians experienced crisis-level food insecurity or worse during the June-August 2026 lean season, representing about 16.7 percent of the population covered by the assessment.
The figure was higher than the more than 30.6 million people estimated to have faced similar conditions during the corresponding period of 2025.
The deterioration has been linked to insecurity, elevated food prices, displacement, climate-related disruptions and weak household purchasing power, highlighting the disconnect between improvements in some macroeconomic indicators and living conditions for many households.
The situation remains particularly severe in the North-East, where prolonged insecurity continues to restrict access to farmland, markets and humanitarian assistance.
FAO estimates that more than 3.7 million people were internally displaced nationwide as of early August, with about two-thirds located in Borno State.
Insurgency, kidnapping and banditry have disrupted farming activities and displaced rural communities, while farmer-herder conflicts in parts of the North-Central and other agricultural regions have further affected crop cultivation and livestock production.
Climate-related shocks are also compounding the pressure on food production, with flooding and other extreme weather events threatening agricultural output, particularly in rural and low-lying communities.
Analysts at Quest MFB and CSL Research said reversing the agricultural trade deficit would require simultaneous interventions across production, processing, storage and distribution.
They called for stronger security in rural areas to enable farmers to return to their farms, alongside greater investment in rural roads, irrigation and storage infrastructure to reduce post-harvest losses and improve market access.
They also stressed the need to expand climate-smart agriculture through drought- and flood-resistant crop varieties, improved water management and other measures capable of protecting farmers from weather-related shocks.
In addition, improved access to inputs, affordable financing and extension services for small holder farmers would be critical to raising domestic output.
Analysts said targeted social-protection and nutrition programmes would also remain necessary to cushion vulnerable households, particularly internally displaced persons and low-income communities, from elevated food costs.
The latest trade figures therefore reinforce the need for Nigeria to move beyond agricultural production for domestic consumption towards stronger value chains capable of supporting food security, import substitution and competitive non-oil exports.