The Congressional Policy and Budget Research Department (CPBRD) said the climate adaptation budget will recover in 2027. However, mitigation funding will continue to decline, raising concerns about the shift to a low-carbon economy.
In its 2027 budget brief, the CPBRD said mitigation spending accounts for only 6.7 percent of total climate expenditures from 2025 to 2027, compared with 93.3 percent for climate adaptation.
Climate mitigation refers to spending that reduces greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and addresses the root cause of climate change. Adaptation, meanwhile, focuses on strengthening resilience to climate impacts.
For 2027, the government proposes P681.5 billion for adaptation, partially recovering from a 40.8-percent decline to P582.9 billion in 2026 from P984.3 billion in 2025.
Next year, the government projects to reduce mitigation spending by 83 percent, dropping it to just P11.2 billion from P65.8 billion.
‘Although the country’s climate change expenditures have historically been skewed toward adaptation measures due to its high vulnerability to typhoons, flooding, drought, sea-level rise, and other climate-related hazards, investments in mitigation initiatives that reduce GHG emissions are equally critical to addressing the underlying drivers of climate change and enhancing long-term climate resilience,’ the CPBRD said.
The decline in mitigation spending ‘raises concerns about the country’s capacity to sustain investments aimed at reducing GHG emissions and supporting transition to a low-carbon economy,’ it added.
The national government has committed to cutting emissions by 75 percent by 2030. However, the Climate Change Commission recently said the country’s fossil carbon dioxide emissions have risen by 25 percent since 2021.
The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development earlier warned that a high-emissions scenario could shrink the country’s gross domestic product by about 5 percent as early as 2040, with losses accelerating to 20 percent by 2070.
The CPBRD also noted that national government departments account for 96.5 percent, or P668.6 billion, of the P692.7-billion total climate spending proposed for 2027.
‘The effectiveness of climate spending therefore depends not only on the amount identified at the national level, but also on whether resources, implementation mechanisms, and technical capacity reach LGUs and other frontline institutions,’ the CPBRD said.
The agency also cautioned that tagging a large amount as climate spending does not necessarily translate into climate impact.
‘It ultimately depends on the accuracy of tagging, the quality and additionality of interventions, budget execution, and evidence that expenditures contribute to adaptation or mitigation outcomes,’ the CPBRD said.