The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) is predicting a significant increase in goods exports for 2026 and highlights the opportunities created by modern services to diversify exports and drive growth and productivity.
In its latest edition of its annual report titled ‘International Trade Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean 2026: the importance of modern services exports and how to promote them’ ECLAC delivers three key messages.
It said that trade geography is changing and that the increased weight of Asia and regional integration can open markets and diversify goods and services exports. ECLAC is also indicating that the export outlooks for Latin America and the Caribbean are favourable, though they vary between countries and sectors.
It said that in modern services, promoting exports, attracting investments, and developing human talent must progress in coordination with the private sector and with the support of solid institutions.
The document addresses the deep reconfiguration being experienced by global trade, influenced by goals of economic security, resilience, and sustainability, as well as the weaponization of interdependence, and marked by rapid progress in emerging technologies, the resurgence of productive development policies, and the geographical reorganization of value chains.
It predicts a 20 per cent increase in the value of goods exports in 2026, the largest since the post-pandemic rebound in 2021.
This result is expected to be driven by an 11 per cent rise in export prices and a nine per cent increase in export volumes, which will grow for the sixth consecutive year. It also advises that performance will be unequal between subregions.
For example, South America will benefit from the price cycle of basic goods, while tourism benefited travel exports, especially in Central America and the Caribbean.
Regarding regional imports, ECLAC predicts they will grow by 16 per cent in value terms, driven by a 12 per cent expansion in volume and a four per cent increase in prices. Import growth points to a recovery in domestic consumption and growing demand for intermediate inputs and capital goods.
Reflecting the favourable outlook for the region as a whole, 28 of its 33 countries are expected to record increases in the value of their goods exports in 2026, with double-digit growth projected in 16 of them.
The report states that worldwide services trade, driven mainly by modern and digital services, is showing the strongest growth in international trade. It totaled US$9.6 trillion dollars in 2025, with average annual growth of 6.6 per cent over the last decade.
In Latin America and the Caribbean, modern services exports grew by more than 3.5 times in the last two decades, compared with about 1.6 times for traditional services. Despite this progress, the region accounts for just 2% of global modern services exports.
These services create opportunities to diversify exports, generate foreign exchange and quality employment, and increase the productivity of other sectors, such as agriculture, mining, and manufacturing.
‘To leverage this potential, a comprehensive strategy is needed that combines promoting exports, attracting direct foreign investment, and developing human talent, effectively coordinated through the public and private sectors,’ ECLAC notes.
It said that the region faces significant challenges in an uncertain geopolitical landscape. Geopolitical tensions, the disruption of shipping routes, and a lack of predictability in trade policy create trade risks.
‘The competition for critical minerals and new environmental demands are also reconfiguring value chains and conditions for market access,’ said ECLAC’s executive secretary, José Manuel Salazar-Xirinachs.
The Chief of the Division of International Trade and Integration, Daniela García, said that the favourable trade situation observed in the region during 2026 creates an opportunity to connect trade, productive development, and investment policies with new trends in the global economy.