Public opinion on the impeachment of Vice President Sara Duterte remains deeply divided between those favoring acquittal and those seeking conviction, though more Filipinos are now taking a side, according to the latest Octa Research survey.
In its third-quarter 2026 Tugon ng Masa (TNM) survey, Octa revealed that 25 percent of adult Filipinos favored acquittal, while 21 percent wanted Duterte convicted. Nevertheless, the largest single group, at 47 percent, said they needed to see the evidence first before deciding her fate.
According to the research group, the findings point to a gradual shift in public opinion since the Senate impeachment trial opened in July, when 55 percent of respondents said they wanted to examine the evidence before taking a position.
Furthermore, the 8-percentage-point drop in undecided respondents suggests that more Filipinos are taking a side as the proceedings unfold. Nevertheless, neither side has gained a clear advantage, with only 4 percentage points separating those favoring acquittal and conviction.
In its July survey, 21 percent favored acquittal and 17 percent supported conviction, while 7 percent were undecided.
Combined, those expressing a preferred verdict increased to 46 percent in the third quarter from 38 percent at the start of the trial.
Nonetheless, Octa cautioned that the two surveys involved separate samples of respondents. The results therefore reflect changes in the overall distribution of public opinion rather than proving that particular individuals have changed their positions.
Widening regional divide
Octa pointed out that the survey revealed a sharper regional divide. Respondents in Metro Manila expressed strong conviction while Mindanao respondents increasingly favored acquittal. This is expected as Mindanao is still a strong political base of the Duterte clan.
In the National Capital Region (NCR), the proportion favoring Duterte’s conviction rose to 34 percent from 19 percent in July. Meanwhile, support for acquittal declined to 17 percent from 21 percent.
Mindanao showed the opposite pattern. Support for acquittal climbed to 52 percent from 41 percent, making it the only major geographic area where either preferred verdict commanded a majority.
The Visayas, meanwhile, took the middle road and maintained a strong preference for waiting for the evidence, with 53 percent of respondents taking this position in both survey rounds.
Octa said these contrasting regional movements underscore the challenge of interpreting public sentiment as a single national verdict, particularly when political preferences differ significantly across geographic areas.
Younger Filipinos
Younger adults recorded the biggest decline in the proportion waiting for evidence, while support for both conviction and acquittal increased among this group.
Among respondents aged 18 to 24, the share wanting to see the evidence first dropped to 29 percent from 50 percent in July.
At the same time, support for conviction rose to 36 percent from 26 percent, while support for acquittal increased to 27 percent from 16 percent.
billboards do the job socmed
The nearly equal gains show that younger Filipinos are moving toward more definite positions without converging on a common preferred outcome.
Among those aged 35 to 44, support for acquittal increased to 33 percent from 19 percent. For respondents aged 65 to 74, support for conviction rose to 27 percent from 18 percent.
The results indicate that the shift away from an evidence-first position is not translating into uniform support for either side. Instead, preferences are developing differently across age groups.
Urban-rural, education gaps
The survey also found growing differences between urban and rural respondents, whose views were nearly identical at the start of the trial.
In urban areas, support for conviction increased to 25 percent from 16 percent. In rural areas, support for acquittal rose to 30 percent from 21 percent.
Educational attainment also emerged as a dividing line. Among college-educated respondents, support for conviction nearly doubled to 32 percent from 17 percent.
Class E, which recorded the strongest preference for acquittal in the July survey, registered the highest proportion favoring conviction among the socio-economic classes in the third quarter, at 32 percent, up from 13 percent.
These shifts suggest that public opinion on Duterte’s impeachment is becoming more differentiated across social and demographic groups, even as a substantial share of Filipinos remains unwilling to commit to a verdict.
Public opinion, trial
The survey was conducted from September 28 to October 4, roughly three months after the Senate impeachment trial opened on July 6.
During the fieldwork, the Senate impeachment court was hearing Article II of the Articles of Impeachment, which alleges that Duterte acquired unexplained wealth.
Proceedings covered her alleged corporate ties and undeclared assets, including testimony from government officials and Davao City Mayor Sebastian Duterte, the Vice President’s brother, who testified on September 29 and was declared a hostile witness.
The court also heard testimony concerning properties linked to her husband, Manases Carpio. A dispute involving Anti-Money Laundering Council documents marked the October 1 session, which ended early.
The survey results do not capture subsequent developments in the proceedings. These include the start of testimony on bank transactions involving Duterte and her husband on October 5, as well as the prosecution’s October 13 decision to drop three of the four articles of impeachment and proceed solely on Article II.
The trial is scheduled to resume on November 9.
Octa’s non-commissioned Q3 2026 TNM survey was based on face-to-face interviews with 1,200 adults nationwide from September 28 to October 4. It has a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points at the 95-percent confidence level, and plus or minus six percentage points for each of the four major geographic areas: NCR, Balance Luzon, the Visayas and Mindanao.
While more Filipinos are starting to favor a particular outcome, Octa said the public remains far from reaching a consensus on Duterte’s political fate. With acquittal and conviction support both increasing, the evidence-first group remains the largest bloc in the country.