When I last covered the United States Grand Prix in Austin in 2023, Max Verstappen arrived with his third championship already secured in Qatar. This time, Kimi Antonelli comes to Texas with the title still open-and Mercedes with work to do before it can expect to win the race.
Madrid was my most recent stop with Formula One. Returning to the Circuit of the Americas will show how these cars respond to different demands: from the sustained banking of Madring’s La Monumental to the repeated changes of direction through Austin’s opening esses. Holding a balance through one long corner is one task. Settling the car quickly enough to commit to the next change of direction is another.
Mercedes has a particular reason to study the difference. The team judged its latest upgrade faster in Singapore, but acknowledged that finding the correct setup had become more difficult. Antonelli finished third, more than 24 seconds behind Verstappen. His championship lead grew, but Mercedes had not challenged for victory.
The United States Grand Prix, October 23-25, presents two separate questions: whether Antonelli can secure the championship, and whether Mercedes can give him the speed to do it with a victory.
Madring and COTA are close in length: 5.414 kilometres in Madrid against 5.513 in Austin. Their demands are less alike. Madrid combines street and permanent sections across 22 corners, including La Monumental’s 550 metres of sustained banking. Austin’s 20-turn layout moves from the uphill braking zone at Turn 1 into rapid direction changes, then through slower sections requiring traction and careful positioning.
Neither circuit is adequately described by its signature corner. Through COTA’s opening sequence, a correction can compromise the approach to the next turn. Later, a car that was responsive through the esses must provide enough rear grip to accelerate cleanly from the slower corners. Finding the best compromise matters more than producing one exceptional sector.
That compromise extends to the tyres.
For the Austin weekend, Formula One’s official tyre supplier Pirelli has selected the C2 hard, C3 medium and C4 soft compounds. The selection marks a return to a more conventional combination after the 2025 experiment that introduced an extra compound step between the hard and medium tyres.
Last year’s hardest C1 compound was not used in the race, with teams favouring one-stop strategies built around the softer C3 and C4 tyres. Pirelli’s return to the C2 as the hard compound could again make a single stop attractive, although the heat typically associated with the Texas weekend may introduce greater degradation and encourage alternative strategies.
According to Pirelli’s pre-race technical assessment, COTA places substantial demands on both tyre axles. The fast corners and rapid direction changes in the first sector place the front tyres under particular stress. Later in the lap, repeated acceleration out of slower corners generates thermal degradation, primarily affecting the rears.
The circuit’s asphalt is not especially abrasive, but the ageing surface presents another complication. A section between Turns 9 and 11 was resurfaced earlier this year. Elsewhere, Pirelli warns that tyre wear rather than graining could become an important consideration, particularly after several tyres reached high wear levels during last year’s race.
For Mercedes, this adds another layer to the question surrounding its upgraded car. Finding additional aerodynamic performance is only part of the job. The drivers must also be able to use that performance without placing excessive stress on the tyres over a full stint
Austin’s conventional weekend format gives engineers time to investigate. With no Sprint, Mercedes has three practice sessions to compare settings rather than the single session available before competitive running begins on a Sprint weekend.
After Singapore, trackside engineering director Andrew Shovlin said Antonelli’s updated package was clearly faster than the previous specification by Sunday. Toto Wolff acknowledged that accessing its performance was more difficult. Antonelli believed further improvement remained available through setup work.
The question is how much of that gain Mercedes can make available throughout a stint. A qualifying simulation offers an initial indication, but the longer runs must show whether the drivers can sustain the pace as fuel burns off and the tyres accumulate laps. A faster car is of limited benefit if keeping its balance manageable requires surrendering the improvement.
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Pirelli’s compound selection gives Mercedes another variable to study. A car that performs well on the soft tyre over one qualifying lap may not respond in the same way on the medium or hard during the race. The relationship between car balance, tyre temperature and degradation could prove decisive, particularly if the expected one-stop strategy becomes marginal in higher temperatures.
Antonelli and George Russell approach that work from very different positions. Antonelli leads his teammate by 102 points. Based on the scheduled remaining races, he can clinch in Austin by winning, with Russell ninth or lower and Lewis Hamilton fifth or lower. Victory alone would not settle the championship.
Russell needs an immediate reversal. Ninth in Singapore followed a start from 19th after power-unit penalties. He recovered ground but could not pass Nico Hlkenberg’s Audi late in the race. Another afternoon spent limiting losses would do little to revive his title prospects.
For Antonelli, Singapore showed the value of recovering what the car could deliver. Fresh tyres helped him take third as Hamilton’s older tyres faded. Four track-limits incidents attracted scrutiny, but the stewards did not impose a time penalty. He could not match Verstappen or Charles Leclerc, yet still extended his championship lead.
Turn 12 is one of COTA’s principal passing opportunities, but the preparation begins at Turn 11. The hairpin feeds onto the long back straight. An attacker needs a clean exit to remain close enough to challenge under braking; gaining ground on entry is of limited value if it costs acceleration. A competitive lap in clean air will not reveal whether a driver can stay close through the hairpin and still apply power early enough to attack.
Nor does arriving ahead at Turn 12 necessarily complete the pass. The slower sequence that follows can sustain side-by-side racing. A driver who brakes later but leaves the car poorly positioned may have gained little by the next corner.
Turn 1 offers a different opening. Its broad entry and steep uphill approach accommodate several lines, particularly at the start. Defending the inside does not remove every outside option. For Antonelli, it is a place where retaining a position must be weighed against the consequences of contact.
A driver who loses ground through the esses must recover it before the next major braking opportunity. The preparation often determines whether a pass is available at all. That connects the setup work to Sunday’s racing: responsiveness keeps a rival within reach; traction and braking provide the opportunity to attack.
Verstappen won both the Sprint and Grand Prix in Singapore. On Sunday, he resisted Leclerc at the start, managed a radio problem and finished 7.335 seconds ahead of the Ferrari. Mercedes never mounted a comparable challenge.
That makes Red Bull a serious Austin prospect, not an automatic favourite. Verstappen acknowledged the change of demands after Singapore, noting COTA’s different character and bumpy surface. The question is whether the car’s recent improvement remains effective through a faster, more varied lap.
Singapore’s winning margin cannot simply be transferred to Texas. Red Bull must establish its advantage again, under different loads and across a different range of corners. Mercedes’ additional practice time also gives its engineers a better chance to respond.
Starts remain a concern. Team principal Laurent Mekies acknowledged that launches needed improvement after Leclerc challenged Verstappen off the line in Singapore. At COTA, the width of the approach to Turn 1 gives a rival space to exploit even a modest advantage. Pole would help without eliminating that vulnerability.
Verstappen also has less reason to settle for second. He has no comparable championship lead to preserve. If he and Antonelli meet on track, the same position can carry a different value for each driver.
Leclerc’s second place in Singapore demonstrated Ferrari’s competitiveness. Hamilton’s sixth showed how quickly a promising afternoon could deteriorate. He qualified third, missed the pit entry when called in under the Virtual Safety Car and subsequently chose to defend track position on ageing tyres. Antonelli, Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri all passed him.
Hamilton accepted responsibility. His finish should not be mistaken for proof that Ferrari lacked podium pace: Leclerc supplied the contrary evidence. The immediate task is to reproduce that competitiveness at a different circuit and convert it into two strong results.
More practice should improve Ferrari’s tyre assessment. Fred Vasseur said Singapore’s limited running had left uncertainty, with the soft compound proving stronger relative to the medium than expected. Austin requires fresh evidence, not assumptions carried from the previous race.
Pirelli’s analysis of the 2025 United States Grand Prix offers a useful reference. Thirteen drivers adopted the medium-soft combination, the most popular strategy of the race. Charles Leclerc was the exception among the podium finishers, starting on the soft compound to gain an early grip advantage.
That history may influence Ferrari’s preparations, but the 2026 tyres and conditions will require a fresh assessment. A softer starting compound could provide an advantage off the line, particularly on the uphill approach to Turn 1, while exposing the driver to greater degradation later in the stint.
Hamilton remains nine points behind Russell and eight ahead of Verstappen. Ferrari holds second in the constructors’ standings, with 444 points against Mercedes’ 578. Hamilton’s position and Ferrari’s constructors’ standing leave little room for another missed opportunity.
Norris described McLaren as fourth-fastest in Singapore and said upgrades were needed. Piastri was similarly restrained. Fourth and fifth recovered points, but neither driver suggested the team had solved its deficit to the leaders.
Ferrari needs to convert its pace into results from both cars. McLaren first needs to show that more speed is available.
It also needs both drivers contributing. McLaren leads Red Bull by seven points in the constructors’ standings, 339 to 332. Norris and Piastri’s Singapore Sprint collision prompted Andrea Stella to reiterate that the team’s interests must come first. Another internal incident would be costly while Verstappen is winning.
Haas returns to its home Grand Prix seventh in the constructors’ standings, seven points ahead of Audi. Oliver Bearman and Esteban Ocon finished 12th and 13th in Singapore, while Hlkenberg scored eighth.
Bearman felt another couple of tenths per lap could have brought points. Ocon reported insufficient grip and excessive sliding. Additional practice gives Haas time to investigate Ocon’s complaints while building on Bearman’s greater confidence in the car.
Further ahead, Racing Bulls has 100 points against Alpine’s 68. Liam Lawson’s seventh strengthened that advantage in Singapore. Pierre Gasly described rear-tyre and traction difficulties that prevented Alpine from converting qualifying speed into race points-a weakness COTA’s slower exits will examine again.
Pirelli expects track grip to be generally good, helped by the supporting categories, including Porsche Carrera Cup North America. But the choice between preserving tyre life and extracting maximum performance remains an important calculation for every team.
For Mercedes, the longer runs will show whether Antonelli can use the upgrade’s extra performance consistently while keeping the tyres within their operating window. Verstappen and Leclerc have already demonstrated what happens when Mercedes falls short.
Antonelli has enough of a championship advantage to accept a result short of victory. His team’s task is to give him a genuine choice.
In Austin, the stopwatch will measure the speed. The tyres may determine how long that speed can last.