Nigeria’s fragile electricity supply is leaving households and businesses increasingly vulnerable as an intensifying El Niño threatens to expose millions of people to extreme heat, raising the cost of cooling homes, disrupting businesses and increasing health risks in a country where reliable power remains out of reach for many.
Nigeria has some of the world’s largest energy access deficits, with about 92 million people lacking access to electricity, according to data from Austria-based Sustainable Energy for All, an international organisation working in partnership with the United Nations.
This data is compounded by warnings from researchers at the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab, who said Nigeria could record 31,400 additional heat-related deaths between September 2026 and February 2027, making it the country with the highest projected toll from the weather phenomenon of El Niño. The estimate is part of a wider forecast of 66,800 additional deaths across Africa’s Sahel region.
For Africa’s most populous country, the development is becoming more urgent as electricity distribution companies struggle to secure sufficient power from the national grid, forcing consumers to endure shorter supply hours and rely on generators, inverters and other costly alternatives to keep essential activities running.
Data from Nigeria’s electricity distribution system showed that 11 distribution companies had a combined allocation of 3,176 megawatts as of 1 p.m. Nigerian time on October 23.
Abuja Disco received the most at 575 MW, followed by Ikeja Disco at 467 MW and Eko Disco at 458 MW. Ibadan Disco was allocated 355 MW and Port Harcourt Disco 291 MW. Benin (240 MW), Enugu (230 MW), Kano (173 MW), Kaduna (167 MW) and Jos (146 MW) got far less. Yola Disco, serving the north-east, received just 74 MW.
The northern allocations matter because that is where the heat is most severe due to distance from the Atlantic Ocean, proximity to the Sahara Desert and low rainfall. The Nigerian Meteorological Agency recorded 41°C in Nguru, in Yobe State, in recent days. Lagos reached 34°C.
Heat of that magnitude, combined with unreliable power, leaves people with few ways to cool their homes or keep food and medicine cold.
‘Not having stable electricity during this heatwave period is very disastrous,’ said Toyosi Akinbobola, head of energy at Sofidam Capital.
Gas shortages compound the problem. The generators’ association says supply to thermal plants is below 43 percent of daily need. Pipeline vandalism destroyed 128 transmission towers in 2024.
‘Nigeria’s stranded power crisis is a transmission failure, not a generation failure,’ Joy Ogaji, chief executive of the generators’ association, said in July.
She described the toll on small businesses: ‘A small tailor earning N4,000 a day can spend N3,000 of it on generator fuel.’
Greg Odogwu, national coordinator at Centre for Renewable Energy, said Nigeria’s power shortages make it vulnerable to global heatwaves.
‘Even households connected to the grid may be unable to depend on electricity throughout the hottest hours of the day,’ Odogwu said. ‘When supply fails, consumers with sufficient resources turn to petrol or diesel generators, solar systems, batteries and inverters. Others have no practical alternative.’
BusinessDay’s findings showed the resulting costs extend beyond household comfort.
Shops may need to run generators for longer, manufacturers face additional operating expenses, and healthcare facilities must maintain power for essential equipment and medicines that require controlled temperatures.
Apart from rising costs, the weather risk is climbing at the same time.
Celeste Saulo, Secretary-General of the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), said the current El Niño could peak toward the end of 2026, with effects lasting well beyond that.
El Niño is a natural pattern, marked by warming surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. But climate change is adding to its force, raising baseline temperatures and widening the gap between what people face and what they can cope with.
Researchers behind the Climate Impact Lab analysis said the numbers reflect poverty and power shortages as much as the weather.
Michael Greenstone of the University of Chicago and Tamma Carleton of the University of California, Berkeley, wrote in an analysis published by Gavi’s VaccinesWork that ‘this makes Nigeria the country most likely in the world to have the highest heat mortality under the super El Niño.’
They added that ‘much of Africa lacks the electricity needed for air conditioning,’ and that ‘poorer, hotter countries will lack the money and reliable electricity needed to protect people.’
‘More than 60 percent of Nigerians were estimated to live below the national poverty line in 2025,’ Chicago researchers noted, and even homes with electricity connections face frequent outages.
The most exposed are people who work outdoors, such as farmers, traders, construction workers and commercial drivers. They are joined by residents of communities with little access to cooling, steady power or health care.
Hospitals and clinics that rely on diesel generators face higher fuel costs and the risk of equipment failure just as heat-related admissions rise.
In Lagos, Nigeria’s commercial capital, residents have been enduring sweltering conditions with limited relief.
‘The heat is unbearable, and with no power, we can’t even turn on fans or air conditioners to cool down,’ lamented Adeola Okonkwo, a resident of Mushin Local Government Area in Lagos. ‘It’s like being trapped in an oven.’
For those who can afford it, the answer is self-supply. Generators and solar-battery inverters have become routine in Nigerian homes and shops, but they are expensive to buy and run.
Diesel and petrol costs eat into household budgets, and small firms that need cold storage, such as food sellers and pharmacies, face rising overheads or spoiled stock.
This development means wealthier urban households can buy their way through a heat wave while poorer families in dense neighbourhoods and rural northern states, where temperatures are highest, mostly cannot.