Slow visa processing in countries whose visa-free privileges have been withdrawn has disrupted travel to Thailand, with many travellers opting for Vietnam instead. Airlines have also reported a large number of no-show passengers and urged the government to resolve the issue as soon as possible.
Meanwhile, the Saudi Arabia market suffered a sharp 40% decline following the closure of Riyadh’s international airport after Houthi strikes earlier this month.
Emirates was among the airlines reporting the consequences of the slow visa application process, recording 30-40 no-show passengers per flight on its Mexico-Thailand route, as many travellers were unable to obtain visas before their departure dates.
Tourism and Sports Minister Surasak Phancharoenworakul said the ministry had acknowledged the issue. The visa policy committee is scheduled to meet on Nov 9, when the tourism ministry will propose granting visa privileges to several Latin American countries, including Mexico, as well as Uzbekistan.
However, the committee must thoroughly discuss the candidates on the list, taking both security and economic factors into account.
According to sources in the travel industry, many tourists from Latin America have shifted their travel plans to other destinations with faster and more convenient visa procedures, particularly Vietnam, which offers tourism products similar to those of Thailand.
Chiravadee Khunsub, deputy governor for Europe, Africa, the Middle East and the Americas at the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT), said that even though the European and US markets remained largely unfazed by the Middle East conflict, posting growth of 0.09% and 0.19%, respectively, the war continued to have a significant impact on Gulf countries, which are directly affected, resulting in a decline of 8.1% as of Oct 20.
SAUDI MARKET HIT HARD
She said the Saudi market, which had been among the fastest-growing markets in recent years, plunged by almost 40%, mainly due to disruptions at Riyadh’s main airport this month, as airlines were forced to cancel flights following several Houthi attacks and the airport’s closure.
This resulted in the suspension of 10 direct flights per week between Riyadh and Bangkok, leaving only nine weekly flights between Jeddah and Bangkok still in operation.
Mrs Chiravadee said the recovery of the Middle East market had also stalled after a strong rebound in pent-up demand when conditions improved in the third quarter.
However, with Middle Eastern airlines having resumed all services to maintain slots at previous levels, she said the agency expects the region to stage a solid recovery once the conflict subsides.
For instance, during the winter season, Qatar Airways is increasing its direct flights from Doha to Phuket to 21 per week from 14, with the increase scheduled to take effect on Oct 25.
During the fourth quarter, she said the number of visitors from long-haul markets is projected to reach 3.38 million, driven by continued growth from several markets, led by Poland and the Nordic countries, which recorded increases of 10.8% and 5.8%, respectively, during the first 10 months of the year.
Forward bookings for the final quarter also remain strong in several key markets, including Russia, up 34% year-on-year, Kazakhstan, up 45%, Finland, up 29%, Denmark, up 14%, Sweden, up 13% and Norway, up 8%.
For the first quarter of 2027, forward bookings recorded by Amadeus Destination Gateway indicate that arrivals from long-haul markets to Thailand are expected to reach 2.25 million, an increase of 18.3% year-on-year, with the Middle East posting the strongest growth at 38.2%, followed by Europe at 17.5%.
Mrs Chiravadee said the trend next year is likely to see more airlines expand long-haul direct services that bypass Middle Eastern hubs, offering travellers more options to plan trips that avoid potential risks associated with these hubs.
This trend is already evident in airlines’ expansion this year, with direct flights from Europe, the US and Africa totalling around 5.73 million seats, up 5.56% year-on-year as of Oct 2.
This winter, notable new direct services include Scandinavian Airlines’ flights from Copenhagen to Phuket and Krabi.
CAUTION PERSISTS
In 2027, the TAT projects that arrivals from long-haul markets will reach 11 million, up 4% from this year, generating 730 billion baht in revenue, also an increase of 4%.
She said the agency must continue efforts to stimulate spending in certain underperforming markets that have been affected by rising fuel costs, weakening economic confidence and price-sensitive consumer behaviour.
These include the UK market, which declined by 3-4% this year, as around 30% of travellers relied on connecting flights through Middle Eastern airports, prompting more people to take holiday trips within Europe instead during the past summer.
For markets facing ongoing protests, Mrs Chiravadee said the agency is closely monitoring the situation. While there has been no immediate impact, as most tourists had already booked their holidays in advance, the situation could affect bookings for next year.
To prepare for any potential impact, she said the agency has already held discussions with airlines on launching joint promotions.
One new partnership is expected with Italy’s flag carrier, ITA Airways, which has merged with the Lufthansa Group.
The TAT and ITA Airways are planning to organise familiarisation trips to raise Thailand’s profile in the Italian market, with the TAT hoping that the airline will upgrade its Thailand services to year-round operations rather than operating only during the peak season.
Suladda Sarutilavan, TAT’s executive director of Europe, said the agency recently hosted the Amazing Thailand Fest 2026 in Madrid, attracting around 5,000 visitors after promoting the event through 430 digital screens across the city.
She said the Spanish market has strong growth potential, supported by flight connections from several Spanish cities via Istanbul, a major aviation hub that offers access to Thailand without relying on Middle Eastern transit points.
The agency also held an inaugural flight ceremony on Oct 25 for Belavia, which has launched scheduled services from Minsk, Belarus, to Bangkok with one weekly flight and will reinstate its direct Minsk-Phuket service with two flights per week from Oct 29 to serve higher demand during the winter season.