Ahead of the 2027 gubernatorial poll in Kwara State, an African research and strategy consultancy specialising in opinion polling, NU Northstar Research, has reported that 31 per cent of voters have not undecided or declined to disclose their preference in the governorship race.
However, the poll reported that the All Progressives Congress (APC) governorship candidate, Salihu Yakubu Danladi, is leading his Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) rival, Bolakale Kawu, by 63 per cent to 34 per cent among voters who have expressed a voting preference, according to a new opinion poll.
The findings, signed by the Head of Research, NU Northstar, Mr Ebuka Iloh, are based on a survey of 30,000 registered voters across the state’s 16 local government areas and 193 wards.
Iloh said the survey was conducted between September 2 and October 20, 2026.
The report also puts the ruling APC candidates ahead of their PDP counterparts in all three senatorial districts.
Among the entire electorate surveyed, Danladi recorded 43 per cent support, compared with Kawu’s 24 per cent, while 31 per cent were undecided or declined to disclose their preference.
Zakari Mohammed of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) polled one per cent, while Ridwan Apaokagi of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) recorded less than one per cent.
A breakdown of the governorship findings showed that Danladi led in all three senatorial districts and all 16 local government areas.
His highest margin was recorded in Kwara North, where he polled 71 per cent against Kawu’s 26 per cent among decided voters. In Kwara Central, the figures were 56 per cent and 41 per cent respectively.
The closest local government contest was recorded in Ilorin West, Kawu’s home local government, where Danladi led by 51 per cent to 46 per cent. The poll, however, identified 58 of the state’s 193 wards as too close to call, while Danladi recorded clear leads in 135 wards.
Kwara South accounted for the largest concentration of undecided governorship voters, with 43 per cent yet to identify a preferred candidate.
The corresponding figures were 28 per cent in Kwara Central and 24 per cent in Kwara North. All six local governments where undecided voters exceeded 40 per cent were in Kwara South.
Young voters aged between 18 and 29 also recorded the highest level of uncertainty, with 37 per cent yet to make a choice.
Undecided voters were also more concentrated in Kwara South, where 36 per cent had yet to identify a preferred senatorial candidate, compared with 25 per cent in Kwara Central and 19 per cent in Kwara North.
On voting patterns, 64 per cent of respondents said they intended to support the same political party in both the governorship and senatorial elections, while 15 per cent indicated a possibility of splitting their votes. Another 21 per cent were uncertain.
The survey also examined public assessment of the incumbent administration.
Bad roads emerged as the most frequently identified problem statewide, cited by 25 per cent of respondents. However, priorities differed across the senatorial districts, with electricity prominent in Kwara Central, road infrastructure in Kwara South and insecurity in Kwara North.
According to the research team, the exercise combined telephone interviews, street surveys and online questionnaires to capture voters’ preferences, perceptions of government performance and concerns across different communities.
Daily Trust reports that the controversial outcomes of the APC’s candidate selection processes have deepened divisions within the ruling party in Kwara State.
Fifteen influential party leaders, operating under the aegis of the G-15, had rejected candidates backed by Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq and warned the party’s national leadership of the potential consequences of the internal crisis ahead of the 2027 general elections.
The G-15 which later rebranded as ‘The Otoge Progressives,’ comprising former ministers, serving and former lawmakers, party chieftains and grassroots mobilisers, has reportedly thrown its weight behind the PDP governorship candidate, further complicating the APC’s political calculations in the state.
One of the group’s members, Senator Saliu Mustapha, who represents Kwara Central, has since defected to the PDP and secured the party’s senatorial ticket.
His emergence as the PDP’s senatorial candidate sets up a direct contest against Governor AbdulRazaq, who is also seeking election to the Senate on the APC platform.