Botswana’s Central District could record as many as 180 heat-related deaths between October 2026 and March 2027, according to projections from a climate research model, as a developing El Niño threatens to intensify extreme temperatures and worsen drought conditions across the country.
The Climate Impact Lab’s El Niño Heat Mortality Tracker, developed at the University of Chicago, identifies parts of the Central District as among Botswana’s most vulnerable areas, highlighting the potential human cost of prolonged heat as the country prepares for months of above-average temperatures and below-normal rainfall.
The projections come as the Department of Meteorological Services warns that El Niño could strengthen and persist into early 2027, raising concerns about the combined effects of extreme heat, water shortages and pressure on public health.
The tracker estimates between 49 and 180 heat-related deaths in areas including Nata, Sowa Town, Mmadinare, Serowe, Palapye, Mahalapye, Orapa and Khwee over the six-month period. Kweneng and the North-West District are projected to record between 15 and 49 deaths, while Ghanzi faces an estimated toll of between zero and 10.
The figures are model-based estimates that compare projected mortality with historical conditions, rather than confirmed deaths or a definitive forecast of how many people will die.
The threat extends beyond Botswana. The tracker projects Nigeria to record more than 56,000 heat-related deaths during the period, followed by India with about 55,200. Indonesia, Brazil and Sudan round out the five countries with the highest projected tolls, at approximately 29,300, 19,500 and 14,700 deaths, respectively.
‘The 2026/27 regional outlook indicates an increased likelihood of below-normal rainfall and above-average temperatures across Botswana,’ Director of Meteorological Services Chandapiwa Sebeela said during a government briefing reported by DailyNews on October 28.
The outlook raises concerns about risks to vulnerable populations, including older people, children, people with existing health conditions and workers exposed to direct sunlight. Prolonged heat can cause dehydration, heat exhaustion and potentially fatal heatstroke.
The Ministry of Health has warned that high temperatures can increase the risk of heat-related illness. Symptoms include excessive sweating, fatigue, breathing difficulties and confusion, according to a government briefing.
The combination of heat and reduced rainfall could also deepen pressure on food security and water supplies. Drought can damage crops, reduce grazing and water availability for livestock, and increase the risk of food shortages. Restricted access to safe drinking water can further heighten the risk of diarrhoeal diseases, particularly among children.
‘Our research puts new forecasting capabilities to work to answer one of the most urgent questions we face: where is extreme heat likely to cost lives?’ Michael Greenstone, a co-founder of the Climate Impact Lab and an economics professor at the University of Chicago, said in the announcement introducing the tracker.
The researchers say the projections are intended to help governments identify high-risk areas and direct interventions before deaths occur. Measures such as heat-warning systems, improved access to healthcare, cooling centres and stronger protections for outdoor workers could help limit the toll.
Authorities in Botswana have urged residents to minimise prolonged exposure to direct sunlight, schedule outdoor activities during cooler morning hours, seek shade and drink water regularly.
The eventual impact will depend on local temperature conditions, the duration of heat exposure, population vulnerability and the effectiveness of preventive measures. The projections nevertheless highlight the potential for extreme heat to become a significant public-health threat as El Niño-related conditions develop.