Nigerian agriculture stands at a paradox. The sector contributes between 24% and 31% of real GDP depending on the quarter, employs an estimated 35-50% of the workforce, and in 2025 recorded modest growth recovery to 2.82% in Q2 after contractions in 2024. The 2025 Agricultural Performance Survey (APS) reported higher output for rice, maize, sorghum, millet, cowpea, yam, and cassava and a sharp fall in staple prices. Yet concurrently, 31-33.1 million Nigerians were projected to face crisis-level food insecurity during the 2025 lean season, and the October 2025 Cadre Harmonisé projects 34.7 million for June- August 2026-the highest number ever recorded. Nigeria ranked 115th out of 123 countries in the 2025 Global Hunger Index with a score of 32.8, classified as serious. The divergence between rising production volumes and deepening hunger reflects structural constraints: insecurity as the single largest tax on agriculture, post-harvest losses of 35-40 million tonnes valued at ?3.5-5 trillion annually, input cost inflation of nearly 20% for fertilizer, climate shocks that destroyed 180,000 farmlands, and low technology adoption.
Growth and Recent Performance
Macroeconomic Contribution
Recent NBS data under the rebased GDP methodology (base year 2019) shows agriculture remains Nigeria’s largest productive sector after services. Growth has been volatile:
Q1 2024: agriculture contracted -1.79% year-on-year, the record low in the series
Q1 2025: marginal recovery to 0.07% real growth, with contribution to nominal GDP declining to 19.40% from 20.86% a year earlier 1
Q2 2025: expanded by 2.82% in real terms compared to 2.60% in Q2 2024, but contribution to total GDP declined slightly to 26.17% from 26.53% 2
Q3 2025: grew 3.79% with contribution dipping to 31.21% 3
Q4 2025: Services 55.92%, agriculture 28.66%, industry 15.42% of real GDP 4
The sector comprises crop production, livestock, forestry, and fishing, with crop production dominant.
Production Trends
The National Agricultural Extension and Research Liaison Services (NAERLS) at Ahmadu Bello University Zaria, in collaboration with the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security and 22 agencies, released the 2025 APS. It confirmed steady growth driven by expanded cultivated areas, improved practices, and farmer resilience 5.
Key findings:
Rice, maize, sorghum, millet, cowpea, yam, and cassava all posted higher outputs versus 2024 6
Government communication cited 2.66% increase in rice and 2.0% rise in maize output in 2025
Maize, rice, and sorghum prices dropped by more than 50% nationally across six geopolitical zones, reflecting improved availability 7
Over 1,600 functional tractors recorded nationwide, plus new Farm Family Census and Tractor Census datasets.
However, other data indicates stress: corn acreage fell to 5.1 million hectares for 2024/2025, the lowest in 14 years due to insecurity and input costs. Cassava dominates production at about 60.6 million tonnes, yams at 61 million tonnes, maize at 12.75 million tonnes, and rice at 8.5 million tonnes, according to domestic supply estimates.
Food Inflation Dynamics
Food inflation experienced a dramatic nominal decline due largely to CPI rebasing, not purely price drops:
December 2024: Food inflation 39.84% year-on-year
November 2025: 11.08% year-on-year, down 28.85 percentage points from 39.93% in November 2024 8
December 2025: 10.84% year-on-year, down from 39.84% a year earlier, with a month-on-month decline of 0.36% 9
Twelve-month average food inflation for the year ending November 2025: 19.68%, down from 38.67% a year earlier
NBS explained the decline was largely due to change in base year and reduced weighting of food in basket. BusinessDay projects food inflation could slip below 10% threshold in early 2026, the first single-digit since May 2015 at 9.78%.
Food Security Status
Cadre Harmonisé and IPC Projections
Nigeria uses the Cadre Harmonisé (CH) framework, equivalent to IPC analysis, led by the government with FAO and WFP support.
May 2024 to April 2025 Analysis: about 31 million Nigerians projected to face acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3+) during 2025 lean season across 26 states and FCT, making it the largest food crisis globally 10
Within that: 5.4 million children affected by acute malnutrition, 3.5 million under-five with severe acute malnutrition (SAM), 1.2 million requiring life-saving treatment; 96,000 children at risk of death in northern states if no intervention 11
Late 2024 projection for 2025 lean season: 33.1 million people expected to face high levels of food insecurity, 7 million increase from same period last year 12
October 2025 CH: 34.7 million Nigerians projected to face acute food insecurity June-August 2026, including more than 650,000 IDPs in Borno, Sokoto, Zamfara 13
June 2026 WFP brief cites 36.3 million for 2026 lean season peak, while another WFP statement cites 35 million as highest ever recorded 14
Drivers identified across CH analyses: persistent inflation, insecurity, high input costs, climate shocks, and foreign exchange volatility.
Global Hunger Index
2024: Nigeria ranked 110th out of 123 countries, GHI score 28.8 (serious)
2025: ranked 115th out of 123 (some reports cite 115th out of 125), score deteriorated to 32.8, still serious category 15
GHI measures undernourishment, child stunting, child wasting, child mortality.
FAO estimates suggest that around 100 million Nigerians experienced some degree of food insecurity in early 2024 according to collated analyses, highlighting chronic versus acute dimensions.
Policy Framework and Government Interventions
NATIP 2022-2027
The National Agricultural Technology and Innovation Policy (NATIP) 2022-2027, approved by Federal Executive Council on 18 May 2022, replaces Agriculture Promotion Policy 2016-2020. It is anchored by the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security and aims to adopt technology-driven agriculture for sustainable food security, diversification, and jobs 16.
Key targets:
35% increase in domestic food production by 2027
Attract $5 billion private sector investment
Emphasis on rice, dairy and fish import reduction, resilience, digital agriculture, high-potential value chains 17
Recent Programmes
Renewed Hope National Agricultural Mechanisation Programme (RHAMP): Inaugurated June 2025 by President Bola Tinubu with 2,000 tractors and over 9,000 implements, described as largest mechanisation drive in Nigeria’s history 18. Terms include 3-5 year lease, 15% interest, 25% down payment, and special provisions for women and youth. Targets 1.2 million farmers, addresses tractor density of 0.27 per 1000 hectares versus African average 2.5 and global benchmark 3. Applications via Bank of Agriculture.