Author: INQUIRER.net

A central bank-led government group tasked with shielding the financial system from market shocks will step up monitoring of banks and other firms with conglomerate ties next year, aiming to nip early signs of stress that could ripple through the country’s broader financial sector.

During its 43rd Executive Committee Meeting, members of the Financial Stability Coordination Council (FSCC) said a comprehensive mapping of corporate linkages in the Philippines would be a priority initiative for 2026.

The council noted that connections between nonfinancial corporations and the financial system have deepened in recent years, with risks shaped largely by housing market trends and high levels of debt in both corporate and household sectors.

To support this, the FSCC is also developing an “interagency coordinated response protocol” to address systemic risks.

“The FSCC’s top priority is to stay ahead of emerging risks and respond as one cohesive front,” said FSCC chair and Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) Governor Eli Remolona Jr.

“By improving system-wide monitoring and coordination, the FSCC aims to safeguard the stability of the Philippine financial system,” Remolona added.

The FSCC also includes the Department of Finance, Insurance Commission, Philippine Deposit Insurance Corporation and Securities and Exchange Commission. It is the venue for financial market authorities to identify, monitor, manage and mitigate the buildup of systemic risks.

Already, institutions like the International Monetary Fund had said that while overall systemic financial risks remained moderate in the Philippines, the “strong bank interconnectedness with complex conglomerate structures” needed close monitoring.

Last June, Moody’s Ratings said that while conglomerate shareholders boosted the balance sheet and loan portfolio of banks via capital and lending opportunities, such a tight relationship also increased related-party risks.

Moody’s also noted the high dependence on banks funding in the absence of a deep capital market. This is seen to become a problem during economic downturns.

Overall, the FSCC said the banking sector remained resilient, backed by robust capital, healthy liquidity and ample allowance for credit losses.

Stress tests likewise indicated that postshock capital adequacy ratios stayed comfortably above regulatory thresholds.

Even so, the council said it would continue efforts to deepen the local capital market to reduce the country’s reliance on banks for funding. Measures include establishing a standardized bond-pricing convention and refining open market operations for greater efficiency. —IAN NICOLAS P. CIGARAL INQ

The Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PSEi) has been highly volatile this month—falling as much as 5.8 percent before rebounding to almost 6,000.

Given this backdrop, it’s understandable that investors are unsure about what to do. Is the recent rebound of Philippine stocks a sign that the worst is over? Or is it an opportunity to trim exposure?

The answer depends on the kind of investor you are.

If you are a trader looking for quick short-term gains, this is not the environment for you. Fundamentals have not improved—and may even weaken—making a sustained rally unlikely. In this case, it may be wise to use the current bounce to take profits or reduce exposure.

Third-quarter gross domestic product grew just 4 percent, far below expectations, as government spending slowed sharply amid the corruption probe and household consumption rose only 4.1 percent, its weakest since early 2021. 

Corporate earnings reflected the same sluggishness: most companies missed analyst estimates, while median growth was less than 5 percent, dragged by telcos, consumer firms, power companies and gaming operators.

External risks are rising too. US economic indicators are weakening, with serious auto and credit-card delinquencies climbing to 5 percent and 12.4 percent respectively—levels last seen during the global financial crisis. 

Layoffs have also surged, while payroll growth has softened. 

Finally, stress in private credit is increasing as recent high-profile bankruptcies at First Brand, Tricolor and Renovo are leading to massive losses among shadow banks. This, in turn, is expected to lead to heightened risk aversion among investors.

Concerns about a potential artificial intelligence (AI) bubble are also building. Big Tech continues to pour hundreds of billions into data centers and other AI infrastructure despite limited real-world adoption. 

A recent MIT study found 95 percent of firms saw no measurable returns from AI, while losses of OpenAI (ChatGPT’s owner) widened to an estimated $7.8 billion in the first half of 2025 despite higher revenues. 

With the S&P 500 trading well above its historical average valuation—and the “Magnificent 7” now accounting for 40 percent of the S&P 500—any reversal in sentiment could trigger a sharp correction that would spill over to emerging markets, including the Philippines.

If, on the other hand, you are a long-term investor building wealth for retirement or for your children, then staying invested makes sense. Economies move in cycles, and today’s challenges will eventually pass.

Valuations also offer a strong argument for staying invested. The PSEi is trading at just 8.8x forward earnings, a level that’s close to the trough reached during the 2008 global financial crisis. 

In fact, before the recent rebound, the index had fallen back to near-pandemic lows even though the economic backdrop is not as bad.

Many blue-chip stocks led by property and consumer stocks are also priced below their 10-year lows. This is despite earning higher profits today. 

At the same time, a number of companies offer dividend yields that exceed those of government bonds, making them appealing sources of passive income. These yields also give investors a cushion, making it easier to stay patient while waiting for prices to recover.

While we cannot predict what catalyst will drive the next sustainable bull market, buying stocks while they are cheap ensures you won’t be left behind when the recovery finally happens.

That said, long-term investing works best when you size your exposure properly. Avoid using margin or leverage and keep only an amount in equities that you are sure you won’t need anytime soon. The market is very volatile right now and cheap stocks can still get cheaper. Holding too many stocks in a volatile environment can cloud your judgment—turning opportunity into panic if prices fall further.

It may also be prudent to raise some cash. With the US economy and markets showing signs of strain, conditions could worsen before they improve. Having liquidity gives you the flexibility to take advantage of any irrational selling should the Philippine market be dragged lower by global contagion. INQ

Trust in online shopping and digital payments in the Philippines is among the strongest in Southeast Asia, but logistics barriers and uneven regulatory enforcement are hampering the growth of small businesses, a regional study found.

A report by Singapore-based Blackbox Research said three in four Filipino e-commerce leaders view the country as ahead of its neighbors in digital payment maturity and consumer confidence.

However, they warned that inefficiencies in delivery, infrastructure and regulation are acting as a “hidden tax” on micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs).

“Filipino consumers have shown remarkable trust in the digital economy, but the systems supporting that trust have yet to reach full maturity,” said David Black, founder and CEO of Blackbox Research.

“The opportunity now lies in closing those structural gaps so that MSMEs can scale alongside consumer demand,” he added.

Barriers

The study interviewed 46 e-commerce leaders and experts across Southeast Asia.

Regulatory inconsistencies were cited as a major barrier in e-commerce industries, with 87 percent of respondents saying uneven enforcement allows some cross-border sellers to evade taxes and product certification requirements.

In the Philippines, logistical gaps remain one of the biggest hurdles. The cost of shipping accounts for 20 percent to 30 percent of the order value, double that of those in mature markets.

The 7,641 islands in the archipelago further complicate shipping. Delivery timelines vary from 24 to 48 hours in Metro Manila to as long as seven to 14 days for remote provinces.

And while investment into e-commerce technologies is high, the report said this focused primarily on visibility and customer acquisition instead of reliability, returns processing and customer support.

Optimistic

Despite these challenges, the Philippines recorded an e-commerce optimism score of 7.93 out of 10 for the next three years, among the highest ratings in Southeast Asia.

“If logistics bottlenecks and compliance burdens can be tackled, the country is well placed to convert digital confidence into inclusive, nationwide growth,” the report said.

To maximize the country’s potential, the study called for greater public-private investment in MSMEs, expanded regional logistics hubs and simpler compliance processes.

“For the Philippines, the task is clear: strengthen the systems that sustain consumer confidence and ensure MSMEs are not just participants but beneficiaries of the region’s digital transformation,” the market research firm said.

“Without decisive collaboration on logistics, regulation and innovation, the very trust that fuels growth today could become its greatest constraint tomorrow,” it added. INQ

The Marcos administration is eyeing a P44.58-billion allocation in 2026 for education infrastructure to address the country’s classroom backlog and develop innovative, climate-adaptive learning spaces.

Rolly Toledo, officer in charge at the Department of Budget and Management (DBM), said funds for education infrastructure is “at the heart” of the record-high proposed education budget of P1.38 trillion for 2026. 

Of this total, the Department of Education is set to get P928.5 billion. That is based on the National Expenditures Program (NEP) that Malacañang, through the DBM, submitted to Congress for deliberation.

“With the DBM and the Government Procurement Policy Board operationalizing the National Government Procurement Act, we are ushering in procurement strategies that will deliver classrooms faster, more efficiently and with greater transparency and accountability,” Toledo said.

According to Toledo, the bulk of the funding will create 4,900 new classrooms and repair more than 9,400 nationwide.

Also, the 2026 NEP proposes to restore over a hundred heritage Gabaldon school buildings, or those built during the American colonial period, for P1.134 billion.

Meanwhile, P3 billion will fund the construction of 200 new “last mile” schools in geographically isolated and underserved areas, each equipped with solar power, water and sanitation facilities, and appropriate furniture.

About P9.39 billion will be used to rehabilitate, retrofit and rebuild 1,300 disaster-affected schools—totaling more than 13,000 classrooms—under the Infrastructure for Safer and Resilient Schools Project.

Further, the proposed national budget provides furniture for 18,000 classrooms; electrification for over 400 schools and 300 new health and sanitation facilities.

“These investments ensure that learning environments are not only structurally sound but also holistic, functional and conducive to student well-being,” Toledo said. 

He described the proposed 2026 national budget as the “true education budget.” Its allocation for education represents 4 percent of gross domestic product, the largest-ever allocation for the sector.

“Together with DepEd, we are promoting more flexible and innovative ways of building classrooms. We will not rely on a single implementing agency. We will empower LGUs, civil society organizations and partners closest to the communities,” he said. 

“This is how we make every peso count. Every classroom we build is a statement of hope. Every repaired structure is a promise kept. Every safe, dignified learning space is a legacy we give our children,” he added. INQ

The Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI) and its insurance arm have launched a critical illness plan offering a lump-sum cash benefit. This is aimed at reducing treatment delays due to patients’ financial hardship.

Called “BPI Kaya Care critical illness insurance,” the plan offers a cash payout upon diagnosis. Early-stage cases could receive 50 percent of the benefit and late-stage or major diagnoses receive the full amount.

Premiums start at P859 per year, depending on age and coverage.

According to BPI, the plan was designed to offer immediate cash support that policyholders can use for medical procedures, medication or daily expenses following a diagnosis. The benefit may be claimed as long as the insured survives for at least seven days after diagnosis.

BPI MS president and CEO Noriyuki Kobayashi said this offering is a “vital and affordable protection to the core and middle markets.”

“The silent crisis of underinsurance, coupled with surging medical costs, creates an urgent need for simple, accessible insurance solutions,” Kobayashi said.

The rollout comes as Filipino households continue to shoulder a significant portion of their own medical costs, even as the government has been spending more on health than ever in the past decade.

Five years after the enactment of the universal health care law, out-of-pocket spending by households still rose by 11.8 percent in 2024, reaching P615.16 billion.

A survey from the WTW Global Medical Trends also showed that medical insurance costs in the country are expected to increase by 18.4 percent this year, making it the second-highest growth among markets in the Asia Pacific.

Filipinos are most prone to critical illnesses, according to the Department of Health. The Philippine Statistics Authority reported that heart diseases, neoplasms and cerebrovascular diseases are still the leading causes of death in the Philippines in 2024.

“For too long, critical illness insurance has felt complex and out of reach. We wanted to change that. BPI Kaya Care is more than a policy—it’s a partner that helps families focus on recovery without financial strain, support that truly matters when it matters most,” said Maria Cristina Go, consumer banking head of BPI. —Nyah Genelle C. De Leon INQ

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