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Pag-IBIG Fund, the Department of Human Settlements and Urban Development (DHSUD), and the Department of Social Welfare and Development (DSWD) turned over new housing units on Monday, 29 September, to graduating qualified beneficiaries of the government’s Pantawid Pamilyang Pilipino Program (4Ps) who are also active Pag-IBIG Fund members.

The turnover ceremony, held at the Abuab Housing Project in San Mateo, Rizal, also marked the kick-off of National Shelter Month 2025, reinforcing President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s directive to provide safe, decent, and affordable shelter for all Filipinos. The event showcased the result of strong collaboration among national government agencies and local government units, working together to expand access to dignified housing under the Expanded Pambansang Pabahay para sa Pilipino Program (4PH).

DHSUD Secretary Jose Ramon P. Aliling highlighted the importance of inter-agency cooperation in fulfilling the administration’s housing goals.

‘President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has directed all government agencies to help one another in making homeownership more accessible to Filipinos, especially our 4Ps beneficiaries. Today’s turnover is a fulfillment of that directive. This is the first Expanded 4PH pilot project in Region IV-A. In close coordination with DSWD, we are matching the housing needs of 4Ps families in our collective effort to uplift lives,’ said Secretary Aliling.

Meanwhile, DSWD Secretary Rex Gatchalian emphasized the long-term impact of the initiative on social development.

‘DSWD’s mandate is not only to provide relief during times of crisis but to help our fellow Filipinos break free from poverty. This is the first time we have partnered with DHSUD on a project like this, and we are grateful that our 4Ps beneficiaries now have the chance to own a home through the expanded 4PH program. Hindi na kayo uupa. May sarili na kayong tahanan,’ said Secretary Gatchalian.

Pag-IBIG Fund, represented by Deputy Chief Executive Officer Alexander Hilario G. Aguilar, affirmed that qualified members can avail of their own homes at Abuab Towers, which will offer a total of 4,330 condominium units. For a 24-square-meter unit, the monthly amortization is as low as ?6,201.81 and can be further reduced to ?4,849.38 with DHSUD’s subsidy.

More than 100 4Ps beneficiaries have already received Notices of Approval for their Pag-IBIG housing loans, with several formally receiving their units during the ceremony. Pag-IBIG Fund continues to serve members nationwide through a wide range of benefits, including savings programs, multi-purpose loans for urgent needs, and other housing modalities under the Expanded 4PH Program.

To bring services closer to the community, Pag-IBIG Fund deployed its Lingkod Pag-IBIG on Wheels (LPOW) during the event. The mobile service unit provided on-the-spot assistance for membership registration, housing loan inquiries, and other programs. The San Mateo turnover stands as a milestone in the joint efforts of DHSUD, DSWD, Pag-IBIG Fund, and the Local Government of San Mateo to realize the government’s vision of providing every Filipino family with a decent and affordable home.

An initial ?2 billion pesos estimated worth in infrastructure damages was reported by the Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH) from the 6.9 magnitude earthquake that struck Cebu province on Tuesday evening, Sept. 30, 2025.

In a press conference, DPWH Sec. Vince Dizon said the figures could still go up as their teams continue to conduct more assessments.

Dizon told reporters that right now their priority are clearing the roads and providing access for unhampered delivery of relief goods to the affected areas.

‘We were sent here by the President [Ferdinand ‘Bongbong’ Marcos Jr.] quickly respond immediately to the needs of Bogo and the other LGUs,’ he added.

Apart from the repairs of roads and bridges, the DPWH secretary said they will send a team to assess the structural integrity of the Bogo City Provincial Hospital.

From their visit, he reported that the hospital incurred major damages in its operating room, emergency room, and the delivery room. With this, he instructed DPWH Cebu to direct all its resources to conduct repairs starting today, Oct. 2, 2025.

TOURISM

Apart from the infrastructure, Department of Tourism (DOT) Sec. Christina Frasco reported that 80 tourism establishments incurred damages and severely affected 711 tourism workers.

She asked the Department of Social Welfare and Development (DSWD) to provide assistance for them.

DOT has also facilitated for the safe return of 14 local tourists who got stranded and assisted one foreign tourist to stay in a safe place in Bogo City as the latter opted not to leave there.

‘We want to assure the local governments that the national government is here to help out. Nakighiusa mi sa mga kaigsonan sa Sugbo niining nahitabo (We are in solidarity with our brothers and sisters in Cebu after what happened),’ Frasco assured.

The DOT will also send a team to conduct assessments to the churches that were damaged in the earthquake.

Meanwhile, President Ferdinand ‘Bongbong’ Marcos Jr. is set to visit the quake hit areas in Cebu today, Sec. Dizon confirmed during the press conference.

Rep. Nathaniel Oducado of 1Tahanan Party-list has filed a proposed measure which aims to create Agricultural Pension Program for the country’s farmers and fishermen.

Oducado said that House Bill No. 5009, also known as Pensyonadong Magsasaka at Mangingisda, seeks to create an agricultural pension program to provide long-overdue social security and pension benefits to the country’s farmers and fisherfolk.

The lawmaker pointed out that despite being the backbone of national food security, farmers and fishermen remain among the poorest in the country.

He said that in 2023, poverty incidence was recorded at 27.0 percent among farmers and 27.4 percent among fisherfolk, placing them among the top three poorest sectors in the country. Unlike workers in the formal sector, they are largely excluded from the national social security system, leaving them vulnerable in times of old age, illness, or disability.

Oducado pointed out that the proposed measure will establish a comprehensive pension and social security program, while also offering an educational scholarship to the legitimate and legally adopted sons and daughters of registered farmer and fisherfolk beneficiaries – with reasonable allowances for supplies and other academic needs.

‘This aims not only to secure their present welfare but also to break the cycle of poverty by ensuring access to quality education,’ he said.

‘Farmers and fisherfolk play an essential role in our survival and national development. It is only right that the State ensures a decent quality of life, reliable retirement support, and opportunities for their children’s future,’ Oducado also said.

The bill highlights real-life stories like that of Mang Romeo, a farmer from Nueva Ecija who, at 70, continues to toil in the fields, but despite decades of service receives no retirement support from the government.

‘His experience mirrors the plight of millions who, without social protection, are forced to work well into their senior years,’ Oducado stressed.

‘With this program, we want to give dignity, security, and hope to those who feed our nation,’ Oducado added.

THE country’s earnings from coconut-based products surged by 44 percent to over $2.2 billion as of August, as supply constraints pushed prices.

Data from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) showed that the value of coconut-based exports leaped to $2.26 billion as of the end of August from $1.57 billion a year ago.

Shipments of coconut oil led the product group among other products, as it jumped by 43 percent to $1.83 billion in the reference period from $1.28 billion last year.

Industry sources said coconut oil prices have been on an upswing, propelled by tight supply from major producing countries due to adverse weather effects and the spike in quotations for other vegetable oils.

Historical figures from the World Bank showed that the average price of coconut oil skyrocketed to a record $2,771 per metric ton (MT) in July.

If this trend continues, the Philippine Coconut Authority (PCA) said the country’s export receipts from coconut oil alone will hit a new record high in 2025.

Such an outlook stemmed from growing demand and surging prices of the tropical oil in the world market. Last year, coconut oil earnings grew to $2.22 billion.

The World Bank expects coconut oil products to average at $1,800 per MT this year, higher than the average price of $1,519 per MT posted in 2024.

Meanwhile, the country’s outbound shipments of desiccated coconut skyrocketed by 75 percent to $323.52 million in January to August from $185.15 million in the previous year.

Export revenues of other coconut products also grew by 45 percent to $75.82 million from $52.49 million.

However, earnings from the outbound shipments of copra meal or cake slumped by 45 percent to $26.49 million from $48.08 million.

The United Coconut Association of the Philippines (Ucap) recently said export receipts from coconut-based products could hit as high as $3 billion in 2026 on the back of an expected rebound in output.

Meanwhile, PSA data also indicated that the country’s exports of fruits and vegetables during the reference period jumped by 21.3 percent to $1.9 billion from $1.55 billion.

Outbound shipments of bananas led the category, rising by 29 percent to $1.05 billion from last year’s $818.37 million, based on PSA data.

Exports of pineapple juice grew by 32.5 percent to $92.1 million from $69.5 million a year ago. However, shipments of canned pineapple dropped by 0.8 percent to $141.88 million from $143.06 million.

GEOPOLITICAL unrest in places like Thailand, Indonesia, the Philippines, Nepal, Japan, the USA, and across Europe may disrupt supply chains through protests, regulatory shifts, and ‘unstable’ governments, according to a report published by global logistics provider Dimerco Express Group.

‘These events can lead to port slowdowns, border delays, and unpredictable sourcing changes, especially in labor, raw materials, and transport logistics,’ Dimerco’s Asia Pacific Freight report for October 2025 noted.

October is a ‘turning point’ for global logistics, according to Kathy Liu, Vice President for Global Sales and Marketing at Dimerco Express Group, as this month is hounded by ‘peak-season demand, layered with geopolitical uncertainty and tariff changes.’

These developments, she pointed out, are creating ‘one of the most complex supply chain environments we’ve seen in years.’

As such, she advised businesses to ‘stay agile, plan early, and diversify their logistics strategies to mitigate disruptions.’

Dimerco said the October report highlights growing geopolitical risks-including protests, regulatory changes and trade negotiations ‘that could further destabilize supply chain operations.’

The global logistics provider said these are the developments along the supply chain that countries should watch out for, on top of the rising freight rates amid peak season.

In the case of the Philippines, goods being shipped through the seas may be slapped with higher freight rates in October 2025.

Dimerco’s freight report showed that ocean freight rates imposed on Philippine cargo bound for Asia, Europe and the United States are seen to rise this month.

As to the capacity of this cargo, the report said market is picking up, but demand of space can still be met by current supply.

In terms of the rates that may apply on Philippine cargo being shipped by air, the freight report divulged that only products bound for the United States may see rising freight rates.

Air freight rate for goods transported bound for Asia will remain stable in October with ‘soft’ capacity, meaning supply is greater than demand. Meanwhile, Philippine goods bound for Europe will see stable air freight rate but capacity is on an upturn, meaning, market is picking up but demand of space can still be met by current supply.

For the air freight market of the Philippines, Dimerco cautioned that with La Niña expected to begin in October 2025, this may affect flight operations and cause temporary road closures.

Moreover, the report said: ‘Peak-season imports of holiday goods and year-end inventory may cause localized short-term capacity constraints and higher rates in late October to early November.’

Liu, Dimerco’s Vice President for Global Sales and Marketing, explained that September to November is always the peak season for air freight.

‘This year, demand growth is more focused on Southeast Asia, particularly Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Singapore,’ Liu said.

‘With high-tech, AI, and semiconductor production increasing in these countries, more finished goods are being shipped out. As a result, we expect capacity pressure at major transit hubs including Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Korea,’ she also noted.

A WIDER trade-in-goods gap may keep the country’s Balance of Payments (BOP) in deficit in the next two years, according to the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP).

The BOP is projected to post a steeper decline of 1.4 percent of GDP to a deficit of $6.9 billion for 2025 and post -0.6 percent of GDP to a deficit of $3.4 billion in 2026.

With this, the current account shortfall is expected to stay at 3.3 percent of GDP in 2025 and 2.9 percent of GDP in 2026.

‘These reflect a widening trade-in-goods gap, subdued services receipts, and restrained capital inflows amid global uncertainty and shifting trade policies,’ BSP said.

BSP said goods exports and imports are both expected to post an average growth of 1 percent this year and next year.

Exports could average $55.6 billion in 2025 and $56.2 billion in 2026, while imports could reach $125.2 billion in 2025 and $126.4 billion in 2026.

‘Infrastructure investments, potential trade diversion, and efforts to diversify export and import partners may help cushion external shocks,’ BSP said.

‘However, structural constraints, such as logistical inefficiencies, skills mismatches, and elevated input costs, continue to weigh on export competitiveness,’ it added.

Services exports are projected to grow 2 percent in 2025 and 5 percent in 2026 while service imports are expected to increase 6 percent in 2025 and 2026.

The country’s services exports could reach $52.6 billion in 2025 and $55.2 billion in 2026. Service imports are projected to average $39.9 billion in 2025 and $42.3 billion in 2026.

BSP said the country’s service exports and imports, particularly from Business Process Outsourcing firms and tourism, could moderate due to ‘uncertainties surrounding US reshoring policies and weakening inbound travel.’

In terms of cash remittances, BSP said these inflows may average 3 percent to $35.5 billion this year and $36.6 billion next year.

‘Overseas Filipino remittances are expected to remain a resilient source of external support, underpinned by strong global labor demand and sustained confidence in formal transfer channels, despite the impending US tax on remittances,’ the BSP said.

Meanwhile, BSP said foreign direct investment inflows are projected to slow this year to $7.5 billion and $8 billion next year.

The data also showed foreign portfolio investments are expected to average $6.2 billion in 2025 and $5 billion in 2026.

‘[This reflects the] heightened global financial volatility and

cautious investor behavior. However, recent policy reforms-including amendments to the Investors’ Lease Act-are poised to improve the investment climate,’ the BSP said.

With these, the country’s Gross International Reserves are expected to average $105 billion in 2025 and $106 billion in 2026.

BSP said this remains adequate and serve as a robust buffer against external liquidity needs even as global market conditions evolve.

HIGHER tariffs that could undermine the country’s export earnings and investment growth will prevent the Philippines from attaining its growth targets until next year, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

In a briefing in Manila on Wednesday, IMF Mission Chief for the Philippines Elif Arbatli Saxegaard told reporters that the Washington-based lender projects GDP to average 5.4 percent in 2025 and 5.7 percent in 2026.

The Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) GDP target is at 5.5 to 6.5 percent in 2025 and 6 to 7 percent in the 2026 to 2028 period.

‘Risks to the growth outlook are tilted to the downside. The main external risks stem from prolonged global trade policy uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and disruptive financial market corrections,’ Saxegaard said. ‘On the domestic front, more frequent and intense climate shocks would cause notable macroeconomic losses.’

Saxegaard also said these new projections emanating from the completion of IMF’s 2025 Article IV Consultation with the Philippines, are also downgraded from its July forecasts.

In July, the IMF estimated that full-year GDP growth could average 5.5 percent in 2025 and 5.9 percent in 2026. Saxegaard said this reflected the country’s weak economic performance in the first six months of the year.

It may be noted that in the first quarter, the country’s GDP averaged 5.38 percent and recorded 5.5 percent in the second quarter of the year. The average first semester growth, based on data from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA), was at 5.4 percent.

‘This revision reflects factors related to the performance in the first half of 2025, which was weaker than what we had anticipated. Some of the important drivers of growth will be the higher tariffs, which are imposed on the Philippine exports to the US, will weigh on exports and investment,’ Saxegaard said. ‘We see also high frequency indicators pointing to negative growth momentum in the second half.’

Climate change, Asean

Given the country’s slower growth, IMF recommended that the country should focus on efforts to address the changing climate and inspire greater cooperation in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) when the Philippines assumes the chairmanship next year.

On climate change, the IMF recommended more programs that could better address climate conditions. She recommended enhancing green Public Financial Management (PFM) practices, with an emphasis on improving climate tagging systems and integrating climate considerations and estimating maintenance needs and costs.

She also noted that climate shocks to the economy are similar in effect to shortfalls in supply. Just a few days ago, Severe Tropical Storm Opong (international name Bualoi) hit the Philippines, entering through Samar, and exiting near Mindoro.

While there were no casualties, Opong affected up to eight transmission lines of the National Grid Corporation of the Philippines.

‘We think that there are a few areas where there could be further efforts, [like] public sector investment in adaptation, which is critical to raise macroeconomic resilience to climate shocks and also to protect the vulnerable by lowering the rebuilding costs when such shocks happen,’ Saxegaard said.

‘We have been looking at the impact of climate shocks on the Philippine economy, [and] what we find is that climate shocks do work like a supply shock: they tend to raise inflation and lower output,’ she also said.

Meanwhile, Saxegaard said the Philippines should start negotiating and implementing deep trade agreements. She also said the country should further enhance global value chain integration and resilience but will require steps to lower non-tariff barriers.

One of the ways this can be done is through Asean and with the country assuming the chairmanship of the association next year, this can be included in the agenda.

‘We understand that the government is already working on a very good agenda as part of its Asean leadership. We would support these efforts, including in terms of achieving higher integration, lowering trade and investment barriers across Asean countries, and better digital and payments infrastructure.’

Risks on the horizon

One of the things that the IMF intends to closely monitor includes private consumption, particularly consumer loans. Saxegaard said these loans have been rising and thus warrants close monitoring.

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) earlier reported that consumer loans to residents-which include credit card, motor vehicle, and general-purpose salary loans-grew by 23.6 percent from 24 percent.

The data showed salary-based General-Purpose Consumption Loans grew 6.4 percent in July 2025, albeit at a slower pace compared to the 8.3 posted in June 2025.

‘For private consumption, it’s more the consumer loans that have been growing quite fast in recent years that warrant monitoring. So we recognize it’s coming from a low base, but nevertheless it’s something to watch,’ Saxegaard said.

Apart from this, the IMF also flagged vulnerabilities in the real estate sector which is considered ‘quite important’ for the Philippine economy.

Saxegaard noted that vacancy rates remain elevated in some segments of the real estate sector and the banking system’s exposure to the real estate sector remains sizable.

In the second quarter, the number of real estate loans rebounded to 2.7 percent from a decline of 4.4 percent in the first quarter of 2025. The BSP said this was driven by an 8.9-percent growth in loan availments in Areas Outside the National Capital Region, which more than offset the sharp 45.6-percent contraction in the NCR.

‘The exposure of the banking system to the real estate sector is also an important part of their loan portfolio. With all of that, we do think that it’s important to monitor the potential risks from that segment in light of the high vacancy rates,’ Saxegaard said.

Apart from these, Saxegaard said it was also important to monitor the interconnectedness of the financial system, particularly the ‘exposure of banks to the non-financial corporate sector.’ She stressed that banks are linked to ‘complex conglomerate structures.’

In June, Moody’s Ratings said the ties between the country’s top conglomerates and the Philippine banking system is a ‘double-edged sword’ that could lead to contagion risks. These ties, the report said, allowed conglomerates access to capital and banks are given corporate lending opportunities, strengthening banks, there are risks.

It showed in its study that only six families in control of major conglomerates are the same ones linked to the country’s largest banks. Moody’s Ratings estimated that Philippine banks are the major source of funding by conglomerates. Part of these funds is the local currency bond market that was valued at $23.4 billion at the end of 2024.

‘If we look at the financial system in terms of the main linkages across different sectors, what really stands out is the exposure of banks to the non-financial corporate sector. Given those linkages, any risks in the non-financial corporates could feed into the banking system, so it’s again an important exposure that we advise the authorities to monitor and continuously assess potential risks because of this exposure,’ Saxegaard said.