The Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) projects two economic futures; one with climate action and the other with 2023 as the base year. They are both premised on the assumption that oil and gas revenues will flow in the near future.
First, it considered the Business as Usual Scenario, where the country functions as if the situation is normal, with no climate action. Here, the country’s GDP remains at an average level of 6.5 percent.
The other situation is Aspirational projection (ASP), which aligns with the country’s Vision 40, with a target of growing the economy tenfold from the current US$50 to US$500 billion in 2040. It is premised on greater industrialization, service expansion, and private sector-led development.
GDP figures average 8.5 percent by 2040 through 2050. Amos Lugoloobi, the State Minister for Finance and Planning, who launched the CCDR report, said, ‘Climate action is not a cost. Investment in resilience and low carbon enhances competition.’
Investments would include irrigation, agroforestry, e-mobility, carbon markets, solar-powered technologies, and green materials. The CCDR study collaborates with previous studies in other countries that also allude to the benefits of climate action, especially adaptation.
For instance, a study, Strengthening the investment case climate adaptation: A triple dividend approach by the World Resources Report on Adaptation, released in June, found returns of US $10.5 for each dollar investment in adaptation over ten years.
The study included 320 projects in 12 countries spread across the Global South, from Kenya, Ethiopia, and Senegal in Africa to Vietnam, China in Asia, and Columbia and Brazil in South America, and looked at water, agriculture, infrastructure, and health investment.
The evaluated projects were supported by Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs) and other international financial institutions.
The MDBs included the African Development Bank, Asian Development Bank, the Adaptation Fund, the Global Environment Facility, the Green Climate Fund, the Inter-American Development Bank, and the World Bank.
The investments were compiled into the Adaptation Triple Dividend of Resilience, which details their objectives, components, costs, benefits, net present value, and economic rates of return, using the standard cost-benefit analysis. The study noted three benefits.
Adaptation investment helped avoid losses and led to economic, social, and environmental benefits. Half of the evaluated projects also yielded mitigation benefits.
Adaptation helped farmers avoid a yield reduction of 18 percent and a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions of 64 percent.
Adaptation and mitigation plans, also referred to as National Determined Contributions (NDCs) actions, are key in achieving the Paris Accord, where countries set targets of limiting emissions to only two degrees above pre-industrial levels.
The activities center around limiting and stopping the extraction of fossil fuels, which are responsible for much of the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
This has divided the globe into tri-polar spheres, namely, the European Union, Japan and the United States – until the Trump administration, which has adopted the transition to renewables, with phased fossil fuels stoppage, and the Arab world and some African countries that view fossil fuels as their main capital resources.
The latter are in favor of extraction, with guardrails, to fund critically needed infrastructure like hydropower dams and roads.
Uganda is currently exploring oil in the Albertine region, arguing that the money earned from oil will be used in the energy transition process. And lastly, there is China, a key player in renewables especially EV vehicles, but still a coal country and heavy consumer of oil fuels.
Experts weigh in
Maria Nantongo, the director of the Climate Finance and Sustainability Centre at Makerere University Business School (MUBS), explains that climate action is indeed a cost, but an investment as well.
‘You can get benefits from it. You are not throwing money in the ditch. I welcome the government’s enthusiasm for developing all these studies, policies, and strategies. The Climate Change Unit also launched the National Taxonomy, a National Finance Vehicle, and a National Finance Strategy. They are to bring the private sector into the climate change financing sector. It shows political will at a high level to tackle the challenge of climate change,’ she adds.
Several climate activists agree with Nantongo about new business opportunities and businesses, saying the country would benefit from its ecosystems, especially wetlands and lakes.
However, John Kaganga, an agroforestry farmer in Kasejjere, Bbambula Parish, Mityana District, says he plans to earn from carbon markets, but wants more information about them.
‘What is a ton of carbon? The government should take the lead in educating us about carbon markets as different players come with different business models. Some are only interested in coffee trees, while others are interested in all trees. They ask us to sign agreements without explaining to us the advantages and disadvantages of being partners with them. I want to participate in the carbon markets, but I am afraid that some of us may end up in jail,’ he told Monitor.
Baker Ainebyona, a planter with forest plantations spread across Mubende, Buikwe, and Rukiga districts, says investing in agroforestry is good business.
‘Forest plantations have been praised as a climate change mitigation measure as sustainable plantation harvesting limits pressure on the indigenous rainforests, which have absorbed carbon over centuries. The plantations aimed to enable Ugandans to make furniture that was previously imported, providing jobs to the youth. However, limited craftsmanship has slowed the plan,’ he says.
Some organisations that have adopted climate change actions are already seeing benefits, for instance, Mpanga Power in Kintagwenda District, which generates and supplies power.
‘Nature-based interventions with the Ministry of Water and Environment, like riverbank conservation, regenerating vegetation, and providing alternative water sources for the community, have decreased siltation of river banks, and increased the water retention rate in the catchment areas, leading to more power generation. Alternative water sources mean that cows can get water away from the river,” says Bob Tumusiime, the environment, health, and safety coordinator.
The Roofings Group, a steel and plastic manufacturing company, which was awarded the Green Manufacturing Award 2025, has incorporated climate actions in manufacturing.
Edwin Abaasa, the brand manager, says their principle is the incorporation of the 4Rs – Recycle, Re-use, Recover, and Reduce – in their manufacturing lines using the latest technology that minimises waste.
The factory also manages a nursery bed with improved and indigenous species which they donate to customers and communities.
‘The gases emitted are processed into oxygen and donated to government hospitals. We do not have any waste that goes into the air. The waste water is treated into safe water for use in the factory, while other waste like acids are re-generated,’ Abaasa says.
With climate change affecting all sectors of the economy, climate action is no longer an option; it is part of the solution. And solutions provide opportunities for innovation and business.
Ugandans who have adopted the use of irrigation or transitioned from charcoal use to clean energy can attest that climate actions are a benefit.
Key areas the CCDR focuses on
The CCDR recommends the adoption of four multi-sectoral interventions throughout the economy with active participation from the private sector. This would lead to increased job opportunities.
The first package is to boost resilience through jobs for youth and services for the poor as they are mostly affected by climate change. And indeed, many have migrated to Kampala for jobs, while others have gone to the Middle East to work as domestic workers.
It suggests skilling, a work-based skilling program, and the scaling of social protection programs, with a digital payment system, especially for the northern region.
It calls for the operationalization of the country’s Climate Change Health Adaptation plan to improve the response of climate health risks.
It also calls for universal access to clean water, sanitation, and hygiene to reduce water-borne diseases.
The second package is the promotion of a resilient and productive agriculture and natural resources sector with lower GHG emissions. It encourages and incentivises the private sector in agribusiness and the nature-based economy, the adoption of climate smart agriculture and sustainable exploitation of wetlands and forests. It also calls for a master irrigation and recommends the improvement of soil quality services.
It advocates for the adoption of perennial crops like bananas and planting of drought-resilient seeds developed by the National Agricultural Research Organisation (NARO), and the codification of charcoal market structures, streamlining biomass energy into a single agency, and advocates for measures to increase clean energy use technologies.
The third package is to develop climate-responsive energy, transport, and digital infrastructure. It recommends the development and institutionalised use of least cost generation and transmission expansion planning.
The last package is foster planning and climate urbanisation, which seeks to establish collaborative arrangements that create non-motorised lanes, promote electrification of minivans and boda boda, and promote research to inform green housing principles.
Other suggested points include the integration of climate resilience in urban plans, and policies and providing incentives to investors to invest in green infrastructure.