There are two powerful forces spoiling for change in our current political landscape. The first group wants to oust President Marcos through fair and foul means, motivated by the singular aim of installing Vice President Sara Duterte as president. The second group wants to oust the entire ruling political class, especially the political dynasties and everyone involved in massive corruption, but they do not want Mr. Marcos to be ousted if that would mean the VP’s assumption of the presidency.
The members of the first group are none other than the pro-Duterte forces. They have been spoiling for a fight ever since the breakup of the so-called ‘UniTeam.’ The pro-Dutertes’ wrath against Mr. Marcos reached a boiling point when former President Rodrigo Duterte was turned over to the International Criminal Court (ICC). The massive flood control corruption scandal has given the pro-Dutertes additional ammunition against the Marcos camp, even if multiple Duterte allies are among the biggest names involved.
On the other hand, the second group is a loose assemblage of Marcos supporters and pink/yellow forces. These two groups have been mortal enemies for the longest time, but they now find themselves in a de facto alliance by necessity, bound by their mutual hatred for a common enemy the Dutertes and their allies. This anti-Duterte group has also been so riled up by the flood control corruption scandal, and they’re raring for a political bloodbath.
The pro-Duterte forces have three available means to install the VP as president. First, there’s the option to launch a coup d’état, as, in fact, there have been several such attempts against Mr. Marcos, and more attempts will take place if the proponents are not arrested. However, for a coup to have a chance of success in our country, it must satisfy two conditions. First, it must appeal to our soldiers’ sense of nationalism. A coup plan must be infused with a spirit that will animate our security forces to believe that they are fighting for our country’s good. A coup anchored on pure lust for power, or to install someone who has more political baggage than the one whose ouster is sought, will have little chance of success. Second, a coup must have a groundswell of people’s support, manifested in street protests, which the pro-Duterte forces have not managed to do.
There’s also the pro-Duterte option to launch a people power revolt. While the pro-Dutertes have failed to generate massive crowds in their street protests, their capacity to gather a humongous crowd cannot be discounted because there are three big religious groups that can supply warm bodies. These are the Kingdom of Jesus Christ of Apollo Quiboloy; the Jesus Is Lord group of Sen. Joel Villanueva and his father; and the Iglesia Ni Cristo, whose members in power, like Sen. Rodante Marcoleta, are identified with pro-Duterte forces.
Third, there’s the option to build up electoral support to catapult the VP to the presidency in 2028. The pro-Duterte forces are digging up wellsprings of sympathy, disappointment, and support to benefit the VP. These include the ICC detention of Duterte, the flood control corruption scandal, natural calamities that expose failures of past and present administrations, all conveniently wrapped together as the sole shortcomings of the current government, and the inadequacies of the Marcos administration. It is in this third option that the Dutertes have a bigger chance of success.
With regard to the anti-Duterte forces, a coup d’état is not on their plate of options, obviously because they do not desire the ouster of Mr. Marcos, as it would give way to a Sara Duterte presidency. For the same reason, a people power revolt, aimed at toppling the entire ruling government, is also not an attractive option, especially because the pro-Duterte forces can ride on the initiative.
There are multiple legal remedies available to the anti-Duterte forces that are aimed at the surgical removal from office of the VP and her allies. These remedies include the VP’s impeachment and the ICC prosecution of Sen. Bato dela Rosa and Sen. Bong Go. Additionally, erstwhile Justice Secretary Jesus Crispin Remulla’s appointment as Ombudsman has given hope that criminal and administrative charges can soon be filed against Duterte stalwarts.
As for the 2028 election option, the anti-Duterte forces lag behind the pro-Duterte group in preparations because of the absence of a clear successor candidate that they can collectively rally behind. There’s no one being groomed by the Marcoses as their successor in 2028. Objectively, it’s still former Vice President Leni Robredo who has the best chance of defeating VP Sara because the contrast and the differences are like day and night.
These are the contending political forces and the arsenals at their disposal that will define our nation’s life for the foreseeable future. They either give us hope or render us hopeless, depending on which side we choose for ourselves.