The beauty of democracy is that there is a wide space for the opposition to thrive and offer an alternative route to good governance, growth, and development.
This critical role has its root in the 1999 Constitution, which guarantees the freedom of association and assembly, and the right of ruling and opposition platforms to jostle for power without let or hindrance.
It is the duty of the opposition – political parties outside the government, individuals and groups holding opposing views on fundamental questions, and even the civil society pressing for a course of action in societal interest – to challenge the party in power and the government it has midwifed to a duel.
Through constructive, lawful, and legitimate engagements, the government acknowledges the imperative of self-moderation. Those in power are kept on their toes, and policies and programes are properly evaluated to determine whether they meet public expectations or not. The greatest feedback on the government’s operations, machinery, and performance is offered by parties outside power through scrutiny and criticism.
They become vital democratic assets when the alternatives they canvass are lucid, logical, objective, persuasive, convincing, and acceptable.
Opposition parties should ordinarily be constitutional threats to ruling parties. In playing the crucial role, they need vision, skills, capacity, resources, as well as bold, brave, courageous, resourceful, and dynamic leadership. The authentic opposition should be poles apart from the cowardice of the hypocritical political parties masquerading as alternative platforms in the country. The lack of objective actions among the nation’s opposition parties has motivated critics to now blackmail the government that it is plotting to push the country into a one-party state.
Since 2023, the major opposition parties – Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Labour Party (LP), and the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) – have not put their houses in order. Internal crises, multiple litigations and factionalisation have sapped the energies of their leaders who are not in one accord.
Unable to resolve their internal problems, they deluded themselves into thinking that they could conjure up a coalition in distress, oblivious of the fact that Nigerians were not ready to follow them to perdition.
The PDP is split, with pro-Atiku forces now taking temporary refuge in the borrowed platform, the African Democratic Congress (ADC). The two halves cannot electorally survive on their own. Yet, reconciliation cannot be contemplated ahead of the 2027 polls. After 2027, the PDP and ADC, after a fruitless search, will try to moot reconciliation.
Why they cannot broker a truce now is that their leaders are driven by antagonistic ambitions, and they cannot subject their individual aspirations to group interest. Currently, within the main opposition, crisis resolution is nil. All PDP stalwarts perceive themselves as leaders and they cannot subject themselves to any overriding leadership that evolved in an atmosphere of equity, fairness, and justice.
The party’s National Working Committee (NWC) is a divided and weak administrative structure that does not command respect. It was reported that the National Chairman, Ambassador Umar Damagum, and the National Legal Secretary, Kamaldeen Ajibade, openly clashed in court over legal representation for the party.
Today, the National Convention scheduled for Ibadan next month is being threatened by malice, hate and strife. It was proposed as a special reunion. But Bayelsa State Governor Douye Diri, who was the Zoning Committee Chairman, and his Enugu counterpart, Peter Mbah, who was the Convention Committee Secretary, have dumped the party.
Their defection trailed the departure of Governor Umo Eno of Akwa Ibom State and Governor Sheriff Oborevwori of Delta State. There are feelers that Taraba Governor Agbu Kefas may also call it quits with the main opposition.
Those who have defected can be properly marked or tackled. But the danger for the PDP lies in the activities of those who have not defected, and may not defect but have their souls connected to the APC while their bodies remain in the PDP. They cannot be quoted as canvassing support for APC; they are actively mobilising for President Tinubu’s second-term ambition.
ADC appears intact as an estranged PDP caucus, although the hosts – old ADC members – are at loggerheads with the new members, led by Atiku and David Mark. The snag is that the party is not waxing strong. Its membership drive has not drawn formidable politicians into its fold. Besides, there is an identity crisis for the dominant group in the party that abandoned its natural habitat, the crisis-ridden PDP.
The NNPP is confined to Kano State, its only stronghold that is now ebbing away, unable to withstand the arrows of the APC members in the state, who deprived it of two constituencies during the recent by-elections.
The Labour Party (LP) remains divided, the court verdict affirming the interim leadership of Esther Nenadi-Usman, notwithstanding. The party has a stunted growth, battered by in-fighting among cantankerous chieftains who cannot make sacrifices for the party to survive.
The four opposition parties are gasping for breath, and they lack colour and character to attract patronage. Thus, their chieftains, particularly the governors, their aides, and lawmakers, are escaping from the sinking ships.
Instructively, though the parties are in deep crises at the national level, the governors do not have problems with the state chapters they superintend as state party leaders. They also do not face serious opposition from the ruling party in their domains.
By moving from their parties to the ruling platform, they oppose the opposing roles of the opposition.
Those defecting claim to be captivated by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s style of leadership. But they are reluctant to learn and adopt his style, which led to the survival of the Action Congress (AC), the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), and APC. Some analysts argue that it may be due to their lack of intellectual wherewithal, sound principles, consistency, perseverance, courage, and capacity for long-term planning, which sustained the president when he was the opposition leader.
Where Tinubu learnt his politics is arguably unknown. But it is obvious that he understands the language of politics more than his political rivals. The two leaders he followed – Shehu Yar’Adua of Peoples Democratic Movement (PDM) and Moshood Abiola – only bestrode the space as colossuses but never attained power. But, not only has Tinubu mastered their tactics; he has become the most electorally successful strategist of the Fourth Republic.
While he was the arrowhead of the opposition from 2003 to 2015, he eschewed fear. He was focused and consistent. He was also honest in acknowledging certain limitations, one of which was that he or his progressive camp could not do it alone. He, therefore, constructed a bridge of understanding, attracting like-minds to the crusade to liberate the country from what the APC described as 16 years of misrule by the PDP.
The tragedy of the opposition is the decimation of its ranks through defections, lack of unity, and absence of a trustworthy and unifying leader who can make sacrifices. Asiwaju Tinubu made a great personal sacrifice for his party to survive in 2015 when he lost the bid for the presidential running mate. That quality is lacking in the current scattered opposition leaders who are driven by self-serving agenda.
The PDP of 2019 was strong and formidable. Four years later, the presidential candidate, Atiku, and his running mate, Peter Obi, parted ways. They became rivals in 2023. Ahead of 2027, PDP has now split into the mainstream PDP where Makinde/Fintiri/Bala forces do not see eye to eye with the Wike/Anyanwu camp; an ADC wallowing in self-deception and a frustrated Labour Party (LP).
The Obi/Otti factor has its inherent limitations, both being PDP defectors now hibernating in the LP.
As the PDP gladiators prepare for the Ibadan Convention, they are not in one accord.
It now boils down to the fact that while the widely advertised alliance or coalition of the opposition is crumbling, APC’s unannounced alliance and coalition with individual heavyweights it has attracted is taking shape.
With the expectation that more opposition governors and other heavyweights will soon join the ruling party, the months ahead portend interesting times in Nigeria’s political space. But it is expected that the opposition would make frantic moves to stabilise their bases. Indeed, a stitch in time saves nine. All hopes are not lost for them to overcome their challenges.