THE Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX) sustained its bullish trajectory in October, with investors recording an additional N2.01 trillion in market value as renewed demand for heavyweight industrial stocks and selected mid-cap equities lifted the benchmark All-Share Index (ASI) to another record high of 254,299.49 points.
The performance increased the market’s year-to-date (YTD) return to 63.42 percent, translating into an impressive N65.74 trillion increase in equity market capitalisation between the beginning of the year and October 30, 2026.
Data from the Exchange showed that market capitalisation increased from approximately N99.376 trillion at the beginning of January to N165.114 trillion at the end of October, representing a 66.15 percent appreciation.
The ASI similarly advanced from 155,613.03 points at the beginning of the year to 254,299.49 points, adding 98,686.46 points over the 10-month period.
However, October’s performance was relatively subdued compared with the extraordinary returns recorded earlier in the year. The benchmark index appreciated by approximately 1.23 percent during the month, rising from 251,211.67 points at the end of September to 254,299.49 points on October 30.
This translated into a market capitalisation increase of approximately N2.01 trillion from N163.10 trillion recorded at the end of September. The relatively modest monthly appreciation concealed significant disparities in individual stock performances, with some equities recording double-digit gains while others experienced substantial losses.
Dangote Cement leads October market rally
Dangote Cement Plc emerged as one of the biggest contributors to the October rally, appreciating by 33.12 percent from N1,066.70 at the end of September to N1,420 per share on October 30. The stock’s appreciation increased its market valuation to approximately N24 trillion, reinforcing its influence on the overall performance of the industrial goods sector and the benchmark index.
Honeywell Flour Mill Plc also recorded an impressive performance, gaining 25.28 per cent from N18 to N22.55, while Livestock Feeds Plc appreciated by 64.20 per cent from N8.10 to N13.30. Multi-Trex Integrated Foods emerged as October’s strongest percentage gainer, doubling its share price from 36 kobo to 72 kobo, representing a 100 per cent appreciation. E-Tranzact International gained 33.61 per cent, increasing from N12.20 to N16.30, while AVA Capital appreciated by 32.74 per cent from N5.65 to N7.50. Learn Africa also recorded a 19.61 per cent increase, moving from N7.65 to N9.15.
Other notable gainers included Fidelity Bank, which appreciated by 10.85 per cent from N21.65 to N24, Guinness Nigeria, up 9.93 per cent from N384.80 to N423, and CAP Plc, which gained 10 per cent from N100 to N110.
Among the heavyweight stocks, MTN Nigeria gained 1.55 percent to close at N850, while Ecobank Transnational Incorporated appreciated by 4.41 percent to N71. Unilever Nigeria also advanced by 3.91 per cent to N109.
These performances demonstrated that although the market’s overall appreciation was modest, selected industrial, financial services and consumer-related stocks delivered substantial returns.
October losers expose market weakness
Despite the impressive performances of selected equities, the broader market experienced significant selling pressure during October. Of the 146 securities tracked in the monthly market performance review, 28 recorded gains, 72 declined, while 46 remained unchanged.
Critical Minerals Financing Corporation emerged among the worst-performing stocks, declining by 30.56 per cent during the month. Zichis Agro Allied Industries also recorded a 16.28 per cent depreciation, despite reporting a significant improvement in its nine-month earnings.
The performance of these stocks highlights the divergence between the benchmark index and individual equity returns, with the broader market experiencing considerably more declines than advances.
Oil and Gas leads 10-month sector performance
On a broader 10-month basis, the oil and gas sector emerged as the strongest-performing segment of the Nigerian equities market. The NGX oil and Gas Index appreciated by 127.9 per cent year-to-date to 6,085.42 points as of October 30, substantially outperforming the benchmark index.
The Industrial Goods Index followed with a 114.9 per cent appreciation, while the Banking Index advanced by 60.27 per cent.
The Consumer Goods Index recorded a marginal 0.97 percent increase, reflecting the relatively weak performance of several consumer-facing companies amid operating cost pressures and subdued purchasing power.
In contrast, the Insurance Index declined by 13.6 per cent to 1,027.06 points, making it the worst-performing major sectoral index over the 10-month period.
The strong performance of the oil and gas sector reflects improving investor appetite for energy-related equities, supported by foreign exchange liquidity, energy-sector reforms and improving corporate earnings.
YTD stock performers reflect extraordinary market returns
The 10-month market rally has also produced exceptional returns in individual stocks, although the strongest performers have not necessarily been the most capitalised companies.
In the first nine months of 2026, Fortis Global Insurance, SCOA Nigeria, Union Dicon Salt, First HoldCo, Berger Paints and UPDC Real Estate Investment Trust featured among the strongest-performing equities.
Fortis Global Insurance appreciated by 805 percent to N1.81 as of September 30, while SCOA Nigeria gained 365.49 percent to N33.05. Union Dicon Salt advanced by 244.20 percent to N23.75, while First HoldCo appreciated by 233.82 percent to N159.90. Berger Paints gained 207.50 percent to N147.60, while Premier Paints appreciated by 204 percent to N30.40.
UPDC Real Estate Investment Trust advanced by 199.28 per cent to N20.65, while RT Briscoe gained 185.71 per cent to N10.
Airtel Africa and Seplat Energy also recorded significant appreciation, gaining 177.53 per cent and 175.44 per cent respectively as of September 30.
Stocks that have struggled
The market’s impressive headline performance has not translated into positive returns for all investors.
Aluminium Extrusion Industries was the weakest stock in the nine-month performance review, declining by 54.27 percent to N9.90. Austin Laz and Company lost 48.24 percent to N2.20, while Guinea Insurance declined by 47.37 percent to 70 kobo.
Tripple Gee and Company depreciated by 47.29 percent to N2.33, while Sunu Assurances Nigeria declined by 44 percent to N3.08.
Sovereign Trust Insurance lost 42.41 percent to N2.20, while Transcorp Power declined by 42.02 percent to N178. Royal Exchange fell by 38.17 percent to N1.15, Ellah Lakes lost 38.06 percent to N8.30, while Universal Insurance declined by 36.36 percent to 77 kobo. The continued weakness of several insurance stocks is consistent with the negative performance of the NGX Insurance Index, which lost 13.6 percent over the 10-month period.
Local investors dominate as foreign participation declines
Beyond individual stock performances, the structure of participation in the Nigerian equities market has undergone a significant transformation, with domestic investors increasingly providing the liquidity sustaining the rally. According to Gbemisola Richard-Adelokiki, Head of Equities Research at Coronation Research, Nigerian investors accounted for almost nine out of every 10 naira traded on the NGX between January and September 2026.
The latest NGX Domestic and Foreign Portfolio Investment Report showed that local investors traded N13.52 trillion, representing 89.7 per cent of total transactions, while foreign investors accounted for N1.55 trillion, or 10.3 percent. This compares with a foreign participation share of 21.6 per cent in the corresponding period of 2025.
Richard-Adelokiki, however, cautioned against interpreting the decline in foreign participation as a complete withdrawal of international investors, noting that foreign trading fell by approximately 16 per cent while domestic trading doubled.
Indeed, total transactions in the first nine months of 2026 had already surpassed the full-year trading value recorded in 2025. The shift in market participation also reflects a reversal in foreign investment flows. Foreign investors were net sellers in every month of 2026 through September, ending the period with net sales of approximately N281 billion, compared with net purchases of about N220 billion in the corresponding period of 2025.
According to the Coronation Research executive, profit-taking following the market’s strong appreciation, the exit of long-held positions and improved foreign exchange liquidity have contributed to the selling pressure. The transition to a T+1 settlement cycle on June 1 also initially raised concerns among international investors about possible pre-funding requirements.
These concerns contributed to FTSE Russell pausing Nigeria’s planned market upgrade, while foreign buying fell to its lowest levels in July and August.
However, the Securities and Exchange Commission’s clarification on August 12 that foreign investors were not required to pre-fund their transactions helped address the concerns. FTSE Russell subsequently confirmed Nigeria’s return to its Frontier Market index, effective September 21, ending approximately three years of exclusion. The impact was reflected in September, when foreign buying more than tripled compared with August and purchases and sales moved close to balance for the first time in 2026.
Pension funds underpin domestic liquidity
Richard-Adelokiki identified pension funds as an important source of domestic market liquidity, particularly following changes to investment regulations by the National Pension Commission (PenCom).
Through an addendum to its investment regulations, PenCom increased the proportion of pension assets that could be invested in equities.
For instance, the permitted allocation for RSA Fund I increased from 30 per cent to 35 per cent, while Fund II’s limit rose from 25 per cent to 33 per cent.
PenCom data showed that pension funds’ holdings of Nigerian equities increased from N3.96 trillion in December 2025 to N6.32 trillion in August 2026.
This represented approximately one-fifth of total pension assets of N31.80 trillion.
In May, the pension regulator also granted pension funds a one-off waiver to participate in the Dangote Refinery IPO.
However, the Coronation Research executive warned that part of the increase in pension funds’ equity holdings reflected higher market valuations rather than fresh purchases alone.
This suggests that domestic investors are not only providing liquidity but are also supporting equity valuations, creating a degree of dependence on local capital.
She noted that the market’s performance had been substantially driven by domestic investors positioning ahead of Nigeria’s return to the FTSE Russell Frontier Market index.
Consequently, the expected return of foreign capital could be smaller than some market participants anticipate.
Dangote IPO presents fresh market dynamics
The Dangote Petroleum Refinery IPO represents another important factor likely to influence market liquidity and investor positioning in the final two months of the year.
The company is offering 4.1 billion shares at N525 each, translating into approximately N2.15 trillion, in what is expected to be Africa’s largest equity offering.
According to Richard-Adelokiki, although IPO subscriptions are not captured in NGX secondary-market trading figures, some investors may have sold existing listed shares to raise funds for their applications.
She identified three possible implications of the offer following allotment.
First, substantial oversubscription could result in significant refunds to unsuccessful or partially successful applicants, with some of the returned funds potentially finding their way back into listed equities and supporting market liquidity towards December.
Second, the refinery’s indicative valuation of approximately N65 trillion at the offer price would make it one of the largest companies in the Nigerian equity market.
At that valuation, it would represent approximately 40 per cent of the market’s value based on the capitalisation level used in the IPO analysis, potentially changing the concentration and direction of the benchmark index once listed.
Third, with only about three per cent of the company’s equity being offered to investors, limited free float could result in significant price movements during the early trading sessions.
She cited economist Bismarck Rewane’s expectation that the market could initially experience a dip before recovering as investors adjust to the refinery’s listing.
The IPO could also generate another increase in domestic trading activity, while foreign investors’ share of transactions could fall below 10 per cent if international funds do not participate significantly.
Outlook: Domestic liquidity remains critical
Looking ahead, the sustainability of the market’s rally will depend largely on whether domestic investors can maintain their current level of participation and whether the return of foreign investors translates into sustained net purchases.
Richard-Adelokiki noted that the market has demonstrated greater resilience because domestic investors no longer automatically follow foreign investors out of the market.
Between March and July, foreign trading declined from N288.8 billion to N132.6 billion, representing a fall of more than half.
Over the same period, local trading increased from N1.46 trillion to N2.24 trillion, demonstrating the growing capacity of domestic investors to absorb selling pressure.
July, which recorded the weakest foreign participation, was also the busiest month of the year for local investors.
Nevertheless, the market’s increasing reliance on domestic liquidity presents its own risks, particularly if pension funds and other institutional investors reduce their exposure or redirect funds to fixed-income instruments.
The market will also be watching developments surrounding Nigeria’s potential return to the MSCI Frontier Market Index, as well as the ability of the Dangote Refinery IPO to attract additional domestic and international capital.
For investors, the immediate test will be whether October’s performance, the first full month following Nigeria’s return to the FTSE Russell Frontier Market index, marks the beginning of a sustained recovery in foreign participation.
With the ASI already delivering a 63.42 per cent return in 10 months, the final two months of 2026 could determine whether the rally broadens further or remains heavily dependent on domestic liquidity and a relatively small group of heavyweight stocks.