Kyari warns opposition against politicising 2027 food insecurity projection

The Minister of Agriculture and Food Security, Senator Abubakar Kyari, has cautioned opposition politicians against turning the October 2026 Cadre Harmonisé food security assessment into political propaganda.

Kyari said the projection that 33.5 million Nigerians could face severe food and nutrition insecurity between June and August 2027 should not be interpreted as a consequence of President Bola Tinubu’s re-election or continuation in office.

The minister, in a statement issued on Monday, described attempts by some opposition voices to politicise the assessment as unfortunate, insisting that the report was a technical early-warning instrument rather than an election forecast.

He explained that the Cadre Harmonisé was developed by the Permanent Inter-State Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel (CILSS), in collaboration with regional and technical partners, including the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), World Food Programme (WFP), FEWS NET, UNICEF and the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC).

According to him, the assessment is designed to identify food and nutrition security risks and enable governments and development partners to respond promptly.

Kyari noted that the projected figure of 33.5 million represented a decline from the 34.8 million projected for the corresponding period in 2026.

He, however, explained that the assessment framework does not conduct retrospective evaluations after the projected period to establish whether the initial projections were accurate.

The minister identified climate change, inconsistent rainfall, prolonged dry spells and the Super El Niño phenomenon as some of the major factors contributing to food and nutrition insecurity, noting that these developments had disrupted weather patterns, planting seasons and agricultural production.

He maintained that the challenges were not consequences of the continuation of any particular political administration.

Kyari said the Federal Government, under President Tinubu, was responding to the identified risks through expanded access to fertilisers and other farm inputs, increased mechanisation, irrigation and dry-season farming, improved agricultural financing, investment in storage and processing facilities, and the promotion of climate-resilient agriculture.

He also highlighted improved security in several farming communities, which he said had enabled farmers who previously could not access their farmlands to return to cultivation.

The minister specifically cited Marte and Guzamala in Borno State, which were previously inaccessible to data collectors but have experienced improved stability, allowing the Cadre Harmonisé assessment to be conducted in the areas.

He further listed progress in fertiliser distribution and local blending, support for smallholder farmers, mechanisation partnerships, expansion of dry-season farming and strengthened agricultural financing through the Bank of Agriculture as part of the government’s interventions.

While acknowledging that the measures would not resolve all the country’s food security challenges overnight, Kyari described food insecurity as a longstanding structural problem that had developed over several years and predated the present administration.

He, however, insisted that agriculture had recorded significant progress since Tinubu assumed office.

‘As Minister, I accept the responsibility that comes with this challenge. When the data identifies a risk, our duty is to act on it, not to hide from it,’ he said.

The minister urged political actors to exercise caution and responsibility when interpreting food security data, warning against exploiting the difficulties faced by millions of Nigerians for political gains.

He said the government welcomed scrutiny and constructive criticism but maintained that there was a difference between legitimate political debate and the deliberate misrepresentation of technical assessments for electoral propaganda.

Kyari assured that the government would continue to use the findings of the Cadre Harmonisé assessment to strengthen agricultural interventions, support farmers, protect livelihoods and improve access to safe, nutritious and affordable food.

Ayala turnaround gains traction

Ayala Corp.’s efforts to cut losses and tighten capital spending are gaining traction, with improving results from its newer businesses strengthening its turnaround prospects, according to conglomerate analyst Klark Gaba.

In a research note, Gaba said changes under president and CEO Cezar ‘Bong’ Consing had eliminated P3 billion in recurring portfolio losses through the disposal of nonperforming assets.

Since taking the helm in late 2022, Consing has also brought in operating partners for AC Health and AC Logistics, reduced parent company headcount by 50 and raised P20 billion in fresh equity through Mitsubishi Corp’s investment.

AC Health, AC Logistics and AC Mobility remain unprofitable, but narrowing losses and operational changes point to improving prospects, Gaba said.

AC Logistics’ net loss narrowed to P167 million in the first half of 2026, with its net margin improving to negative 8 percent.

The subsidiary recorded a P1.9-billion loss and a negative 48-percent margin for full-year 2025.

At AC Health, provider group revenues grew by 32 percent as patient volumes and average spending increased.

Professional fees included in revenues nearly doubled to P700 million, which Gaba viewed as an indication of greater physician activity.

Expansion-related costs, however, weighed on profitability.

AC Mobility sold 25,048 vehicles across its brands in the first half, up 25 percent year-on-year, supported by its BYD partnership.

The peso’s weakness pressured margins, although its negative margin narrowed to 0.18 percent from 1.49 percent in 2024.

Gaba said the charging station rollout should support longer-term profitability.

Ayala has also moderated capital infusions. Annual investments averaged P17.8 billion in 2023 to 2025, down from P18.6 billion in 2018 to 2022.

Capital infusions as a proportion of dividends received fell to 91 percent from 123 percent across the same periods, reflecting a more disciplined allocation of resources, Gaba said.

A dedicated portfolio management team now assesses businesses against their cost of capital, operating targets and return measures, including return on equity, return on invested capital and total shareholder return.

Govt launches Shs10.5b electricity network plan

Government has embarked on an 18-month, Shs10.5b project to develop a national electricity distribution master plan aimed at guiding network expansion, reducing connection costs and supporting government’s ambition to achieve universal access by 2030.

The plan will provide a comprehensive picture of the country’s existing electricity distribution infrastructure and identify areas requiring new connections, upgrades and alternative energy solutions.

Under government’s 2030 target, half of the population will access electricity through the national grid, while the other half will be connected through off-grid solutions, particularly solar systems.

Ministry of Energy commissioner for rural electrification Abdon Atwine said the project seeks to address weaknesses in the current approach to electricity planning, which largely focuses on taking power to districts and sub-counties.

He said the absence of integrated planning has sometimes resulted in public facilities being established far from existing electricity infrastructure, creating expensive demands for grid extensions.

‘That is something we want to address by working with our stakeholders … to have a robust plan in terms of upgrading our network and extending the grid,’ Atwine said in an interview.

The master plan is expected to bring together electricity infrastructure planning and the development priorities of other government ministries, helping ensure that new public facilities and investments are considered when decisions on network expansion are made.

‘It is a study that will take us 18 months, for Shs10.5b … after 18 months, we should be a harmonised sector,’ he said.

Turkish technology firm Basarsoft has been contracted to undertake the studies, including mapping the electricity distribution network using Geographic Information Systems (GIS).

The exercise will involve collecting data on existing electricity infrastructure, identifying underserved communities and assessing potential demand to inform future investment decisions.

Basarsoft General Manager Tuncay Kucukpehlivan said the use of GIS would provide government with a reliable and continuously updated database to support electricity planning.

‘We are trying to establish a GIS database by studying all the fields and visiting all villages. We will collect existing infrastructure and potential demands. In this way, we will see the existing system and the demands for the future,’ he said.

The company plans to deploy about 200 field staff to undertake the surveys, which have already started.

The field exercise, Kucukpehlivan said, is expected to cover targeted areas within six months, followed by approximately three months of data evaluation.

The findings will then be used to develop the master plan, with outputs produced progressively across different regions rather than waiting for the entire countrywide exercise to be completed.

He said the process would also allow the Ministry of Energy to access data as it is collected, enabling it to monitor progress and understand emerging findings.

‘There will be regions to be covered; as the data comes, we will open that data also to the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development to see what’s going on, and after evaluating the data, we start producing the outcomes,’ he said.

The resulting master plan is expected to provide a basis for prioritising electricity investments, coordinating network expansion with public infrastructure development and identifying where grid connections or off-grid solutions would be more appropriate.

Dangote Cement, Mid-Caps drive NGX N65.74trn gain

THE Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX) sustained its bullish trajectory in October, with investors recording an additional N2.01 trillion in market value as renewed demand for heavyweight industrial stocks and selected mid-cap equities lifted the benchmark All-Share Index (ASI) to another record high of 254,299.49 points.

The performance increased the market’s year-to-date (YTD) return to 63.42 percent, translating into an impressive N65.74 trillion increase in equity market capitalisation between the beginning of the year and October 30, 2026.

Data from the Exchange showed that market capitalisation increased from approximately N99.376 trillion at the beginning of January to N165.114 trillion at the end of October, representing a 66.15 percent appreciation.

The ASI similarly advanced from 155,613.03 points at the beginning of the year to 254,299.49 points, adding 98,686.46 points over the 10-month period.

However, October’s performance was relatively subdued compared with the extraordinary returns recorded earlier in the year. The benchmark index appreciated by approximately 1.23 percent during the month, rising from 251,211.67 points at the end of September to 254,299.49 points on October 30.

This translated into a market capitalisation increase of approximately N2.01 trillion from N163.10 trillion recorded at the end of September. The relatively modest monthly appreciation concealed significant disparities in individual stock performances, with some equities recording double-digit gains while others experienced substantial losses.

Dangote Cement leads October market rally

Dangote Cement Plc emerged as one of the biggest contributors to the October rally, appreciating by 33.12 percent from N1,066.70 at the end of September to N1,420 per share on October 30. The stock’s appreciation increased its market valuation to approximately N24 trillion, reinforcing its influence on the overall performance of the industrial goods sector and the benchmark index.

Honeywell Flour Mill Plc also recorded an impressive performance, gaining 25.28 per cent from N18 to N22.55, while Livestock Feeds Plc appreciated by 64.20 per cent from N8.10 to N13.30. Multi-Trex Integrated Foods emerged as October’s strongest percentage gainer, doubling its share price from 36 kobo to 72 kobo, representing a 100 per cent appreciation. E-Tranzact International gained 33.61 per cent, increasing from N12.20 to N16.30, while AVA Capital appreciated by 32.74 per cent from N5.65 to N7.50. Learn Africa also recorded a 19.61 per cent increase, moving from N7.65 to N9.15.

Other notable gainers included Fidelity Bank, which appreciated by 10.85 per cent from N21.65 to N24, Guinness Nigeria, up 9.93 per cent from N384.80 to N423, and CAP Plc, which gained 10 per cent from N100 to N110.

Among the heavyweight stocks, MTN Nigeria gained 1.55 percent to close at N850, while Ecobank Transnational Incorporated appreciated by 4.41 percent to N71. Unilever Nigeria also advanced by 3.91 per cent to N109.

These performances demonstrated that although the market’s overall appreciation was modest, selected industrial, financial services and consumer-related stocks delivered substantial returns.

October losers expose market weakness

Despite the impressive performances of selected equities, the broader market experienced significant selling pressure during October. Of the 146 securities tracked in the monthly market performance review, 28 recorded gains, 72 declined, while 46 remained unchanged.

Critical Minerals Financing Corporation emerged among the worst-performing stocks, declining by 30.56 per cent during the month. Zichis Agro Allied Industries also recorded a 16.28 per cent depreciation, despite reporting a significant improvement in its nine-month earnings.

The performance of these stocks highlights the divergence between the benchmark index and individual equity returns, with the broader market experiencing considerably more declines than advances.

Oil and Gas leads 10-month sector performance

On a broader 10-month basis, the oil and gas sector emerged as the strongest-performing segment of the Nigerian equities market. The NGX oil and Gas Index appreciated by 127.9 per cent year-to-date to 6,085.42 points as of October 30, substantially outperforming the benchmark index.

The Industrial Goods Index followed with a 114.9 per cent appreciation, while the Banking Index advanced by 60.27 per cent.

The Consumer Goods Index recorded a marginal 0.97 percent increase, reflecting the relatively weak performance of several consumer-facing companies amid operating cost pressures and subdued purchasing power.

In contrast, the Insurance Index declined by 13.6 per cent to 1,027.06 points, making it the worst-performing major sectoral index over the 10-month period.

The strong performance of the oil and gas sector reflects improving investor appetite for energy-related equities, supported by foreign exchange liquidity, energy-sector reforms and improving corporate earnings.

YTD stock performers reflect extraordinary market returns

The 10-month market rally has also produced exceptional returns in individual stocks, although the strongest performers have not necessarily been the most capitalised companies.

In the first nine months of 2026, Fortis Global Insurance, SCOA Nigeria, Union Dicon Salt, First HoldCo, Berger Paints and UPDC Real Estate Investment Trust featured among the strongest-performing equities.

Fortis Global Insurance appreciated by 805 percent to N1.81 as of September 30, while SCOA Nigeria gained 365.49 percent to N33.05. Union Dicon Salt advanced by 244.20 percent to N23.75, while First HoldCo appreciated by 233.82 percent to N159.90. Berger Paints gained 207.50 percent to N147.60, while Premier Paints appreciated by 204 percent to N30.40.

UPDC Real Estate Investment Trust advanced by 199.28 per cent to N20.65, while RT Briscoe gained 185.71 per cent to N10.

Airtel Africa and Seplat Energy also recorded significant appreciation, gaining 177.53 per cent and 175.44 per cent respectively as of September 30.

Stocks that have struggled

The market’s impressive headline performance has not translated into positive returns for all investors.

Aluminium Extrusion Industries was the weakest stock in the nine-month performance review, declining by 54.27 percent to N9.90. Austin Laz and Company lost 48.24 percent to N2.20, while Guinea Insurance declined by 47.37 percent to 70 kobo.

Tripple Gee and Company depreciated by 47.29 percent to N2.33, while Sunu Assurances Nigeria declined by 44 percent to N3.08.

Sovereign Trust Insurance lost 42.41 percent to N2.20, while Transcorp Power declined by 42.02 percent to N178. Royal Exchange fell by 38.17 percent to N1.15, Ellah Lakes lost 38.06 percent to N8.30, while Universal Insurance declined by 36.36 percent to 77 kobo. The continued weakness of several insurance stocks is consistent with the negative performance of the NGX Insurance Index, which lost 13.6 percent over the 10-month period.

Local investors dominate as foreign participation declines

Beyond individual stock performances, the structure of participation in the Nigerian equities market has undergone a significant transformation, with domestic investors increasingly providing the liquidity sustaining the rally. According to Gbemisola Richard-Adelokiki, Head of Equities Research at Coronation Research, Nigerian investors accounted for almost nine out of every 10 naira traded on the NGX between January and September 2026.

The latest NGX Domestic and Foreign Portfolio Investment Report showed that local investors traded N13.52 trillion, representing 89.7 per cent of total transactions, while foreign investors accounted for N1.55 trillion, or 10.3 percent. This compares with a foreign participation share of 21.6 per cent in the corresponding period of 2025.

Richard-Adelokiki, however, cautioned against interpreting the decline in foreign participation as a complete withdrawal of international investors, noting that foreign trading fell by approximately 16 per cent while domestic trading doubled.

Indeed, total transactions in the first nine months of 2026 had already surpassed the full-year trading value recorded in 2025. The shift in market participation also reflects a reversal in foreign investment flows. Foreign investors were net sellers in every month of 2026 through September, ending the period with net sales of approximately N281 billion, compared with net purchases of about N220 billion in the corresponding period of 2025.

According to the Coronation Research executive, profit-taking following the market’s strong appreciation, the exit of long-held positions and improved foreign exchange liquidity have contributed to the selling pressure. The transition to a T+1 settlement cycle on June 1 also initially raised concerns among international investors about possible pre-funding requirements.

These concerns contributed to FTSE Russell pausing Nigeria’s planned market upgrade, while foreign buying fell to its lowest levels in July and August.

However, the Securities and Exchange Commission’s clarification on August 12 that foreign investors were not required to pre-fund their transactions helped address the concerns. FTSE Russell subsequently confirmed Nigeria’s return to its Frontier Market index, effective September 21, ending approximately three years of exclusion. The impact was reflected in September, when foreign buying more than tripled compared with August and purchases and sales moved close to balance for the first time in 2026.

Pension funds underpin domestic liquidity

Richard-Adelokiki identified pension funds as an important source of domestic market liquidity, particularly following changes to investment regulations by the National Pension Commission (PenCom).

Through an addendum to its investment regulations, PenCom increased the proportion of pension assets that could be invested in equities.

For instance, the permitted allocation for RSA Fund I increased from 30 per cent to 35 per cent, while Fund II’s limit rose from 25 per cent to 33 per cent.

PenCom data showed that pension funds’ holdings of Nigerian equities increased from N3.96 trillion in December 2025 to N6.32 trillion in August 2026.

This represented approximately one-fifth of total pension assets of N31.80 trillion.

In May, the pension regulator also granted pension funds a one-off waiver to participate in the Dangote Refinery IPO.

However, the Coronation Research executive warned that part of the increase in pension funds’ equity holdings reflected higher market valuations rather than fresh purchases alone.

This suggests that domestic investors are not only providing liquidity but are also supporting equity valuations, creating a degree of dependence on local capital.

She noted that the market’s performance had been substantially driven by domestic investors positioning ahead of Nigeria’s return to the FTSE Russell Frontier Market index.

Consequently, the expected return of foreign capital could be smaller than some market participants anticipate.

Dangote IPO presents fresh market dynamics

The Dangote Petroleum Refinery IPO represents another important factor likely to influence market liquidity and investor positioning in the final two months of the year.

The company is offering 4.1 billion shares at N525 each, translating into approximately N2.15 trillion, in what is expected to be Africa’s largest equity offering.

According to Richard-Adelokiki, although IPO subscriptions are not captured in NGX secondary-market trading figures, some investors may have sold existing listed shares to raise funds for their applications.

She identified three possible implications of the offer following allotment.

First, substantial oversubscription could result in significant refunds to unsuccessful or partially successful applicants, with some of the returned funds potentially finding their way back into listed equities and supporting market liquidity towards December.

Second, the refinery’s indicative valuation of approximately N65 trillion at the offer price would make it one of the largest companies in the Nigerian equity market.

At that valuation, it would represent approximately 40 per cent of the market’s value based on the capitalisation level used in the IPO analysis, potentially changing the concentration and direction of the benchmark index once listed.

Third, with only about three per cent of the company’s equity being offered to investors, limited free float could result in significant price movements during the early trading sessions.

She cited economist Bismarck Rewane’s expectation that the market could initially experience a dip before recovering as investors adjust to the refinery’s listing.

The IPO could also generate another increase in domestic trading activity, while foreign investors’ share of transactions could fall below 10 per cent if international funds do not participate significantly.

Outlook: Domestic liquidity remains critical

Looking ahead, the sustainability of the market’s rally will depend largely on whether domestic investors can maintain their current level of participation and whether the return of foreign investors translates into sustained net purchases.

Richard-Adelokiki noted that the market has demonstrated greater resilience because domestic investors no longer automatically follow foreign investors out of the market.

Between March and July, foreign trading declined from N288.8 billion to N132.6 billion, representing a fall of more than half.

Over the same period, local trading increased from N1.46 trillion to N2.24 trillion, demonstrating the growing capacity of domestic investors to absorb selling pressure.

July, which recorded the weakest foreign participation, was also the busiest month of the year for local investors.

Nevertheless, the market’s increasing reliance on domestic liquidity presents its own risks, particularly if pension funds and other institutional investors reduce their exposure or redirect funds to fixed-income instruments.

The market will also be watching developments surrounding Nigeria’s potential return to the MSCI Frontier Market Index, as well as the ability of the Dangote Refinery IPO to attract additional domestic and international capital.

For investors, the immediate test will be whether October’s performance, the first full month following Nigeria’s return to the FTSE Russell Frontier Market index, marks the beginning of a sustained recovery in foreign participation.

With the ASI already delivering a 63.42 per cent return in 10 months, the final two months of 2026 could determine whether the rally broadens further or remains heavily dependent on domestic liquidity and a relatively small group of heavyweight stocks.

’Shs13b for This?’: Minister Onek decries exaggerated cost of Pece stadium renovation

The Minister for General Duties, Eng. Hillary Onek, has expressed disappointment over the progress of works at Pece Stadium in Gulu City and demanded an audit of the project cost, citing a lack of value for money.

”So, Ministry of Works, this one is shoddy work, technical work, shoddy technical performance. 13 billion (shillings), 13 billion for this kind of thing,” the Minister wondered.

He explained that the works duplicate facilities that were previously in the stadium before the National Council of Sports demolished them for an upgrade ahead of the 2027 African Cup of Nations (Afcon).

”The pavilion which was there was destroyed; now we are building the same pavilion back. The same groffa (storeyed) was also there. What you are building here, this structure there, if I am to assess with my experience as a builder, it cannot even reach one billion (shillings).” the furious minister said after an assessment on October 21.

Mr Onek said the infrastructure on site is worth just one billion shillings as opposed to thirteen billion shillings that had already been injected by the government for the project.

”13 billion (shillings) can build a fully-fledged stadium, not just a pavilion like this one. I know what building is all about, so I am really disappointed. You have a lot of explanations to make for 13 billion (shillings) going into this; I am not sure.” He noted.

The National Council of Sports is undertaking renovation of Pece War Memorial Stadium in Laroo-Pece Division, Gulu City as a training ground ahead of the Afcon 2027. It is expected to be one of the three training grounds alongside other stadiums under upgrade in Lira and Gulu Universities. The stadiums are expected to serve teams that will play at Akii Bua Stadium in Lira City.

Last renovated in 2017 for the Federation of East Africa Schools Sports Association (FEASSA), the state of the stadium had been deteriorating. The upgrade started in May after the site handover to the UPDF Engineering Brigade and was expected to be completed by November 15 this year.

Similarly, Ms Florence Alanyo, the Assistant Resident District Commissioner for Gulu, questioned the work progress.

She said, ”I am also much worried a bit; this project was supposed to be for six months, already five months gone, we are left with one month, and my sister talked of this project being finished by 31st November, you are talking of 15th November, now I am even confused.”

But Site Engineer, Mr Daniel Matsiko, defended their positions, saying, ”Whatever you are seeing here, we are trying to do our best to make sure that by 15th we have completed this work, and the project duration is six months, and the contract time so far, we have now used nine months, but we are where we are, and slowly we can achieve it.

Gulu District Sports Officer, Mr Braxtone Ojara, said they have no prerogative over the project as it is being handled by the National Council of Sports.

”All the land titles were with the National Council of Sports; official handover was done from the district (Gulu), and for us, we thought everything would be then in this area.”

The Site Engineer reported that 68.8% of the work was completed. Currently, the facility is expected to have 1,000 pavilion seater, a dressing room, floodlights, artificial turf and a levelled training ground with a wall fence erected and work on the drainage and pitch was yet to start.

Questions swirl over internet deal between Uganda, Tanzania

Questions swirl around the operability of Uganda’s proposed alternative fibre optic infrastructure through Tanzania that was pitched to the government by a company called Samanga Utilities.

In a June 23 letter, President Museveni indicated that he had received proposals from Samanga Utilities regarding ‘an alternative internet route through Tanzania’-tapping on the latter’s high-capacity fibre-optic network at the Mutukula border point, and automation of toll collections of the Kampala-Entebbe Expressway (KEE), which was the subject of a recent parliamentary inquiry.

However, months down the road, documents seen by this publication indicate that the discussions now centre on management of the Dense Wavelength-Division Multiplexing (DWDM) fibre optic line previously operated by the Uganda Electricity Transmission Company Ltd (UETCL).

Accordingly, UETCL’s contracts committee is in the process of reviewing the evaluation report of the joint venture of Samanga Utilities and Liquid Telecommunications for ‘a commercial partner’ to oversee DWDM fibre optic covering over 1,775.2km. After evaluation, the contract worth $4.6m (Shs19.3b), will be forwarded to the Solicitor General for guidance.

This raises questions whether Samanga Utilities is introducing new internet connectivity infrastructure connecting from Tanzania or is merely going to run the UETCL fibre.

In the June 23, President Museveni suggested the options of using ‘the electricity transmission line for creating capacity for digital connection’ and ‘the petroleum corridor to lay fibres for digital connection.’

The latter refers to the buried fibre-optic cable running contiguous with the 1,443m km East African Crude Oil Pipeline (Eacop) that will transport Uganda’s waxy crude oil from the oil fields in mid-western Uganda to Tanga Port in Tanzania.

‘Study this with the relevant ministers and recommend courses of action for each of their efforts,’ Mr Museveni guided.

In August, the Parliamentary Committee on Physical Infrastructure started inquiring into the KEE toll management operations that were initially contracted to Egis Road Operations SA, and its sub-contractor Pinnacle Security Ltd.

Egis Road Operations SA divorced from the toll management operations, leaving behind Pinnacle Security Ltd. The committee probe discovered gaps in the latter’s contracting. Rather than recommending the Ministry of Works and Attorney General to plug the gaps, the committee broached terminating Pinnacle Security Ltd.

However, on the fibre optic network side, neither the National Information Technology Authority-Uganda (NITA-U), the statutory body mandated to coordinate government IT-services, nor its supervising Ministry of Information and National Guidance are involved in the ongoing discussions.

Samanga Utilities’ chief executive officer, Mr George Nkya said that ‘internet between Uganda and Tanzania is already flowing and people are enjoying high speed connectivity.’

‘You check with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. They facilitated discussions between the two governments,’ he said.

There is, however, little record on the same, except an article titled ‘Tanzania adds Uganda to its ongoing regional fibre loop’ published on October 2, 2023, following signing of a memorandum of understanding between NITA-U and Tanzania Telecommunications Corporation (TTCL) earlier on September 29. The article suggests that Tanzania ‘will’ connect Uganda’s national fibre infrastructure called National ICT Broadband Backbone (NICTBB).

Dr Hatwib Mugasa, the NITA-U executive director, said Uganda’s fibre optic cable – National Backbone Infrastructure (NBI) – already runs to Mutukula at the border in Kyotera District, and to Busia and Malaba border points with Kenya.

‘NITA-U is in charge of the NBI and its operations. For the other fibres you are asking about, you have to speak to the responsible agencies,’ Dr Mugasa said.

In 2006 the government acquired a $106m (Shs444.5b) loan from China’s Export-Import (EXIM) Bank for the optical fibre cable to link all government offices and the supply and installation of communication equipment to enable the transmission of voice, data and conferencing services.

Phase One of the project was completed in June 2008 and involved laying of optical fibre cable within Kampala and Entebbe to link 27 ministries, departments, and agencies and laying of 168km of fibre linking Kampala to Mukono, Bombo and Jinja.

Phase Two ran from 2009 to 2013 encompassing laying 1,400km and construction of a data centre, at Statistics House in Kampala.

Phase Three ran from 2016 to 2017 covering 756km of high-speed optical fibre cable from Kampala to Western Uganda and the borders with Tanzania and Rwanda.

Phase Four was funded by the World Bank to a tune of $75m (Shs314.5b) from 2016 to 2022 to extend ICT backbone to the West Nile districts and border points with DRC and South Sudan.

The former Energy minister, Ms Ruth Nankabirwa, left behind the deal in the in-tray of her successor, Dr Monica Musenero, who assumed office on June 10. She wrote of the deal ‘The use of Tanzania as a primary internet route’ in her handover report.

Consequently, in a letter dated July 27 under the reference ‘Implementation of the presidential directive on the Uganda-Tanzania fibre optic connection’, Dr Musenero directed the UETCL chief executive officer, Mr Richard Matsiko, to ‘terminate’ procurement of a commercial partner to manage the DWDM fibre optic, and directly engage Samanga Utilities Ltd, in joint venture with Liquid Telecommunications.

Dr Musenero, further, directed UETCL to ‘progress implementation of the Masaka-Kyaka optical fibre project in accordance with the approved work programme.’

This fibre is proposed to run on the planned Wobulenzi-Masaka-Mutukula to Mwanza 400 kilovolt transmission line, part of the regional interconnection lines under the Eastern African Power Pool.

UETCL, subsequently, terminated the procurement of a commercial partner to manage the DWDM fibre optic that runs alongside the high voltage power line.

Previously, the company leased the infrastructure to four telecommunication companies, Uganda Telecom Ltd/Uganda Telecommunications Corporation Ltd (UTL/UTCL), Sky Dot Com Ltd, Telkom-Kenya Ltd and Hamilton Telecom Ltd, with payments made three months in advance for fibre cores and 12 months in advance for co-location spaces.

However, the recent Auditor General’s report detailed that receivables from management of the fibre ‘have been outstanding for extended periods starting from as far back as 2016 to 2025.’ UTL/UTCL owed Shs10b, Sky Dot Com Ltd Shs8b, Hamilton Telecom Ltd–Shs7b, and Sky Dot Com Ltd Shs127m.

Insiders told this publication that owing to spiralling debt they had moved to procure one commercial partner to manage the infrastructure on a revenue sharing basis, when the orders to cancel the procurement were issued.

Motherhood is starting later, menopause is not

Doctors say late pregnancies reflect fertility treatment and changing lifestyles, not a shift in when women reach menopause.

When she walked into Dr Charles Masiko’s clinic at 45, she was pregnant for the first time. There had been no fertility treatment, no hormones, no procedure. She had simply conceived naturally, at an age when many women are approaching the end of their reproductive years.

Two years later, she is back in his consulting room. At 47, she is pregnant again, and Dr Masiko says this pregnancy, too, was conceived naturally. When the pregnancy was confirmed, he says, she struggled to believe she was expecting another baby. He describes her as a woman who keeps fit and eats well.

Dr Masiko, a gynaecologist at Kawempe National Referral Hospital and La Bridge Hospital in Lusanja, says he is seeing more women starting families later than their mothers did.

A woman of 35 who is only just beginning to have children no longer surprises him. But a pregnancy at 47 raises a question that goes beyond the age at which women are having babies: if motherhood is possible later in life, does that mean menopause is also happening later?

The distinction matters because the ability to carry a pregnancy and the age at which a woman reaches menopause are not the same thing.

What fertility treatment can and cannot do

Safinah Namukwaya’s pregnancies brought that distinction into sharp focus. In 2020, at 64, she gave birth to a baby girl after in vitro fertilisation (IVF) using donor eggs. In November 2023, at 70, she delivered twins, a boy and a girl, through another IVF pregnancy.

Her pregnancies were made possible by fertility treatment, not by her ovaries continuing to release eggs into her seventies. Once a woman has reached menopause, donor eggs can make pregnancy possible if she is medically suitable for treatment and her uterus can carry the pregnancy.

According to Dr Edward Tamale Ssali, director of the Women’s Hospital International and Fertility Centre in Bukoto, Kampala, Namukwaya was the 25th woman above 50 to conceive through IVF at his centre.

The hospital operates an egg-sharing programme through which eggs donated by eligible IVF patients can be used to help other women conceive.

The treatment, however, raises questions beyond the medical possibilities. Uganda has long operated without a specific law governing assisted reproductive technology. The Human Assisted Reproductive Technology Bill, 2023, which was tabled in Parliament in March 2024 to regulate the sector, had yet to become law at the time of reporting.

Namukwaya’s story demonstrates what fertility treatment can achieve, but it should not be confused with a change in the natural ageing of the ovaries.

‘Women are not reaching menopause later,’ says Dr Vincent Karuhanga, a general practitioner at Friends Polyclinic in Kampala. He says the pregnancies that attract attention are better understood as examples of what fertility treatment can make possible, rather than evidence that the age of menopause is changing.

The woman pregnant at 47 presents a different case. Her pregnancies occurred without medical assistance, making them unusual at her age. Dr Masiko says natural conception becomes increasingly uncommon as women grow older, although it is not impossible before menopause. She is not the only one in her family, she says: her sister conceived naturally at 50.

Why women are starting families later

A woman’s natural fertility declines with age as the number and quality of her remaining eggs decrease. As the ovaries age, the likelihood of conception falls, while the likelihood of chromosomal abnormalities in eggs increases. These changes affect both the chances of becoming pregnant and the risk of miscarriage.

By menopause, the ovaries have stopped releasing eggs, making natural conception no longer possible. Fertility treatment may sometimes overcome the barrier to pregnancy by using donor eggs or previously frozen embryos, but it does not reverse the natural ageing of a woman’s ovaries.

The reasons women begin families later vary. Dr Masiko points to women pursuing higher education and careers before having children. Dr Karuhanga says some want financial security before taking on the cost of raising a family. Others take longer to find a partner or experience difficulties conceiving. These circumstances can mean that a woman begins trying for a child when her natural fertility has already declined. Some then seek medical assistance, while others may conceive naturally, as the 47-year-old patient did.

What late pregnancy means

Being able to conceive is not the same as being medically fit to carry a pregnancy. Pregnancy at an older age is associated with increased risks for both mother and baby, including high blood pressure disorders during pregnancy, gestational diabetes, miscarriage and preterm birth. The likelihood of some complications rises with age, and existing medical conditions may increase the risks further.

The age of the egg also matters. As women grow older, their remaining eggs are more likely to have chromosomal abnormalities, increasing the risk of miscarriage and certain conditions affecting the baby. Using donor eggs changes the age-related risks associated with the egg, but it does not remove the risks associated with the age and health of the woman carrying the pregnancy.

Namukwaya’s first delivery illustrated why pregnancies at very advanced ages require close medical attention.

Dr Herbert Kalema, a gynaecologist at Masaka Regional Referral Hospital, told the Daily Monitor that Namukwaya arrived with abdominal pain, high blood pressure, difficulty breathing and swollen legs. Her doctors opted for a caesarean delivery at eight months.

For the woman pregnant at 47, Dr Masiko says he is managing the pregnancy through monthly antenatal appointments. Her case illustrates why a pregnancy at this age needs medical supervision rather than assumptions based on how healthy or physically fit a woman appears.

For women considering pregnancy later in life, a discussion with a qualified health professional is important. Their age, existing medical conditions and individual circumstances all matter when assessing whether pregnancy is advisable and what monitoring may be required.

The point is not that every pregnancy in the forties will have complications. Rather, the risks change with age, and women need accurate information to make decisions about their reproductive health.

When does menopause actually happen?

Menopause is confirmed after 12 consecutive months without menstruation, provided there is no other medical explanation.

According to the World Health Organisation, most women experience natural menopause between 45 and 55 years.

During perimenopause, periods may become irregular, but pregnancy remains possible if ovulation continues.

However, conceiving in one’s forties does not mean menopause will occur later, and there is insufficient evidence that Ugandan women are reaching menopause later than previous generations.

When should you seek fertility advice?

Women aged 40 and above who wish to conceive should seek medical advice early rather than spend months trying without understanding their fertility prospects.

A fertility assessment may examine ovarian function, menstrual history and other factors affecting conception. Depending on the findings, a doctor may discuss natural conception, assisted reproductive techniques or other options.

Women who become pregnant in their forties also need early antenatal care because pregnancy at an advanced maternal age carries higher risks, including miscarriage, gestational diabetes, high blood pressure and chromosomal abnormalities.

Buwenge Town Council leads Jinja in HIV-positive cases

Buwenge Town Council has recorded the highest number of new HIV-positive cases in Jinja District, accounting for 28 percent of the 442 people who tested positive during the 2025/2026 financial year.

The district HIV focal person, Ms Suzan Naguya, said 127 people tested positive in Buwenge, making it the lower local government with the highest number of new cases among the district’s seven administrative units.

Kakira Town Council followed with 22 percent, while Kagoma Town Council accounted for 21 percent.

Busedde Sub-county recorded 12 percent. Buyengo and Namagera town councils accounted for 5.8 percent and 5.6 percent respectively, while Butagaya Sub-county recorded the lowest number.

Ms Naguya attributed the higher numbers in urban centres to population movement and social activities that increase exposure to HIV.

‘When you look at the areas with the highest numbers, they are all urban centres with bars and lodges that attract many people,’ she said.

She added that such centres attract different categories of people, including sex workers, increasing the need for targeted HIV prevention and testing interventions.

Renewed optimism

Despite the figures recorded in some areas, Ms Naguya said HIV prevalence in Jinja District had declined from 3.7 percent to 3.4 percent, below the national prevalence of 4.7 percent.

She urged residents and the general public to undertake regular HIV testing, remain faithful to their partners and practise abstinence as part of efforts to prevent further transmission.

Health interventions

The HIV figures emerged as the Insurance Regulatory Authority (IRA) conducted a three-day medical camp at Mpumudde Primary School in Jinja City, which ended last Friday.

Dr Protazio Sande, IRA chief executive officer, said the authority organised the medical camp after recognising the need to improve health outcomes in Eastern Uganda.

‘I am very happy to be welcomed to Jinja, one of the districts in eastern Uganda whose health indicators are not among the best in the country. I believe this was one of the factors considered in organising the health camp to contribute to better health outcomes,’ he said.

Dr Sande said although the authority’s primary responsibility was regulating the insurance industry, it also undertakes corporate social responsibility programmes to improve community welfare.

He said good health was essential for productive lives and that taking medical services closer to communities would improve access, particularly for people who struggle to reach health facilities.

He urged residents to take advantage of free medical camps whenever they are organised, noting that health challenges, including shortages of medicines, continue to affect communities.

Meanwhile, the Jinja City Secretary for Health, Ms Irene Nakato Wakabi, raised concern over an increase in mental health cases, calling on the ministry of Health to strengthen the supply of medicines for affected patients.

‘The ministry of Health should increase stocks of medicines for people with mental health conditions because I have observed a rise in the number of cases in Jinja City,’ Ms Wakabi said.

The Jinja City secretary for health also identified diabetes as an emerging public health concern requiring urgent attention.

Dr Charles Wako, the officer-in-charge of Mpumudde Health Centre IV, said the facility registers at least one new patient with diabetes or hypertension daily.

Military says NPA leader killed in South Cotabato encounter

A high-ranking communist instructor wanted for attempted homicide was killed in a legitimate law enforcement operation in South Cotabato last week, the military announced, directly contradicting rebel assertions that the man was an ailing, unarmed retiree allegedly executed by state forces.

The conflicting narratives center on the October 30 death of 60-year-old Noel Pamaong in Barangay Silway 8, Polomolok town.

In an official Facebook post of the Army’s 6th Infantry Division (6ID) Saturday, October 31, it said that Pamaong – known in the underground movement as ‘Lauro’ or ‘Santi’ – was a dangerous fugitive who headed the Regional Instructors Bureau of the New People’s Army (NPA).

According to the 6ID, joint elements of the army and police moved in to serve a July 2023 arrest warrant for multiple attempted homicide when the encounter occurred at around 8:30 p.m.

Authorities said they recovered a .45-caliber pistol and a hand grenade from the scene.

But for the National Democratic Front-Far South Mindanao Region (NDF-FSMR), Pamaong was hors de combat – a former combatant ‘entirely incapable of fighting’ due to severe ailments, including chronic kidney disease, rheumatism, and diabetes.

In an email to the Inquirer Monday, November 2, NDF-FSMR spokesperson Kim Montiza vehemently denied military claims of a shootout, stating Pamaong had been inactive and living with the masses since 2024.

Montiza accused state forces of planting the pistol and grenade to legitimize an ‘overkill’ operation, noting that Pamaong was simply traveling to visit a relative.

His civilian companion and driver, Laurence Porras, was also shot during the raid and remains in critical condition.

Brig. Gen. Edgar Catu, commander of the 6ID and Joint Task Force Central, lauded the operation, emphasizing the tight coordination between the 1st Mechanized Brigade, the 603rd Infantry Brigade, and the South Cotabato provincial police.

Catu credited the active support of local residents in helping authorities track the fugitive and neutralize the security threat.

The NDF, however, maintains the raid was a blatant violation of International Humanitarian Law and is calling on human rights advocates to launch an independent investigation into the killing.

ADC South-West reaffirms support for Atiku

The leadership of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) in the South-West has reaffirmed its unity and support for the party’s presidential candidate, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, ahead of the 2027 general elections.

In a press statement signed on November 2, 2026, by the South-West National Vice Chairman, Akin Omole, and six state chairmen, the leaders said there was no rift, division or leadership crisis within the ADC in the South-West.

‘The zonal leadership and six state chairmen remain united in purpose and determined to strengthen the party’s structures across the region,’ the statement said.

‘We fully support Alhaji Atiku Abubakar as the party’s presidential candidate. We recognise his leadership, political experience and national vision, and remain committed to working closely with him, the National Working Committee, National Chairman Senator David Mark, National Secretary Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola and other stakeholders to deliver a historic victory in 2027.’

The leaders also reaffirmed their confidence in the leadership and political coordination of Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola across the South-West.

They said the meeting held in Ibadan on September 4, 2026, was a strategic gathering convened to discuss how the ADC could strengthen its structures and deliver the South-West for Atiku and all party candidates.

‘It focused on political strategy, grassroots mobilisation, stakeholder engagement and organisational coordination. It was not a meeting against the presidential candidate, national leadership or any individual within the party,’ the statement said.

The ADC South-West leadership said there was no virtual meeting with Alhaji Atiku Abubakar on September 5, 2026, describing the claim as false and fabricated.

‘Any claim that such a meeting took place, or that it was held to resolve an alleged internal crisis, is false and fabricated. We consider this a deliberate attempt by political opponents to sow discord and weaken the party’s growing cohesion,’ they said.

‘We urge members and supporters to disregard such divisive narratives. For the avoidance of doubt, we stand solidly with our presidential candidate, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar. There is no disagreement, hostility or division between the South-West leadership and our presidential candidate.’

The leaders said political consultations and strategic meetings were normal features of a growing party and should be understood as efforts to strengthen the ADC and prepare for electoral success.

‘We are intensifying grassroots mobilisation, voter engagement, membership expansion and consolidation of party structures. Our mission is to deliver victories for presidential, governorship, senatorial, House of Representatives and State House of Assembly candidates across Lagos, Ogun, Oyo, Osun, Ondo and Ekiti States,’ they said.

‘We urge party members, supporters and the public not to be distracted by narratives designed to create suspicion or division. We remain focused, united and determined. ADC is united. There is no rift. There is no division. We are working together to deliver the South-West for Atiku Abubakar and all ADC candidates in 2027.’