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IEA forecasts decline in global natural gas demand

Global natural gas demand is expected to fall by approximately 1.5%, or 65 billion cubic meters, in 2026 compared with the previous year, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). This would mark the third annual decline in global gas consumption since 2020.

The forecast was published in the IEA’s Global Gas Security Review 2026.

According to preliminary IEA data, global natural gas consumption fell by more than 1%, or over 35 billion cubic meters, in January-September 2026 compared with the same period last year. The agency said lower consumption in the Middle East, along with high prices in major LNG-importing markets in Asia and Europe, had contributed to the decline in gas demand.

In particular, rising gas prices prompted several Asian countries to switch from gas to coal for electricity generation. Higher prices also reduced gas consumption in energy-intensive industries, including fertilizer production.

In 2026, the decline in global gas demand is expected to be concentrated mainly in the power generation, energy and industrial sectors. Together, these three sectors are projected to account for 90% of the overall decrease.

The impact of the conflict in the Middle East on gas markets varies significantly across regions. In the countries most directly affected by the conflict, damage to domestic gas production and processing facilities has led to a sharp decline in output across energy-intensive industries.

The IEA also forecasts a 1.5% drop in natural gas demand in the Asia-Pacific region in 2026.

“Limited LNG availability and high prices will encourage a shift towards coal in power generation and reduce capacity utilization at energy-intensive industrial facilities,” the report said.

In Europe, natural gas consumption is expected to decline by 3% over the year. The agency attributes this to lower industrial gas use amid high prices, as well as reduced gas consumption in the power sector due to increased electricity generation from renewable energy sources.

The impact of the conflict has been limited in regions that are less dependent on LNG imports.

UNICEF, EU target 3,400 youths in Kano, Jigawa, Sokoto with employability skills

The Youth Employability and Skills Project (YESP), being implemented by Yaba College of Technology in partnership with the Industrial Training Fund (ITF), is expected to address skills gaps among young people and strengthen their capacity to participate in the labour market.

The programme will cover 30 selected local government areas across the three states, with Kano accounting for 1,200 beneficiaries, while Jigawa and Sokoto will each have 1,100 participants.

Project Coordinator Funmilayo Doherty disclosed this at the launch and induction training in Kano, where participants were introduced to the Global Record Book, National Skills Qualification and guidelines on the Prevention of Sexual Exploitation and Abuse.

She said the initiative was designed to equip beneficiaries with practical competencies that would improve their productivity, support enterprise development and enable them to contribute to the economic development of their communities.

Doherty noted that Nigeria’s growing youth population represented a significant economic resource, but stressed that unlocking its potential required deliberate investment in skills that reflected the changing demands of the labour market.

According to her, the project would place particular emphasis on young women and vulnerable youths, especially those facing greater barriers to education, training and employment opportunities.

She also urged employers, businesses and industry leaders to provide internship placements, apprenticeships, mentorship and employment opportunities for participants after their training.

She said such partnerships would help bridge the gap between skills acquisition and actual employment, ensuring that beneficiaries could translate their newly acquired competencies into sustainable sources of income.

The UNICEF Representative at its Kano Field Office, Shafeeq Ur Rehman, said the partnership with the European Union and other implementing institutions reflected a shared commitment to investing in young people as drivers of economic growth, innovation and sustainable development.

He said equipping youths with relevant skills was important to improving their economic prospects and strengthening their contributions to society.

Similarly, Ibraheem Abdul, Rector of Yaba College of Technology, represented by the Deputy Rector, Ismail Badmus, said the institution was committed to expanding access to technical and vocational education.

Abdul disclosed that the college was targeting 18,000 young people through various skills acquisition programmes as part of its broader efforts to promote employability and economic empowerment.

The YESP will provide training in digital, green, technical, vocational and entrepreneurial skills, alongside pathways designed to connect beneficiaries with employment and enterprise development opportunities.

The involvement of the ITF and Yaba College of Technology is expected to strengthen the technical delivery of the programme, while collaboration with employers will be critical to determining how effectively the training translates into jobs and viable businesses.

The initiative comes amid persistent concerns over youth unemployment and the mismatch between the skills acquired by young Nigerians and those demanded by employers, particularly in the country’s northern region, where access to technical training and formal employment remains a development challenge.

Man Butchered At KO

A man believed to be in his 40s has allegedly been butchered to death at KO in Kumasi in the Ashanti Region, triggering a police investigation into the gruesome incident.

The body of the deceased has been conveyed to the Komfo Anokye Teaching Hospital (KATH) for preservation and autopsy to establish the exact cause of death.

Police have since commenced investigations to unravel the circumstances surrounding the suspected killing. However, no arrest had been made as of the time of filing this report.

The latest incident has heightened concerns among residents over reported cases of deaths involving vulnerable persons in the Kumasi metropolis.

Less than a week ago, a toddler was reportedly dumped into a water closet (WC) toilet and later pronounced dead following police intervention.

The disturbing incident attracted public attention, with residents expecting the police to establish the circumstances surrounding the child’s death.

Although there is no indication that the two incidents are connected, their occurrence within a short period has raised concerns about public safety in the metropolis.

Meanwhile, the identity of the deceased, the motive behind the suspected killing and the possible perpetrators are yet to be established as police investigations continue.

Surplus that starves

In September 2024, Sri Lanka handed the National People’s Power the cleanest mandate in its history. Two years on, the question is no longer whether the Government means well. It is whether it can deliver.

First, remember what was handed over. The NPP did not inherit a collapse; it inherited a recovery. In 2022, the economy had shrunk 7.3% and the country had defaulted on its foreign debt. By September 2024, under the IMF programme agreed in March 2023, growth was back to 5% in the first half of the year. Inflation stood at -0.5%, reserves had rebuilt to about $ 6 billion, and interest rates had been cut by 7.5 percentage points. Two days before the election, the outgoing Government reached an agreement in principle with international bondholders. The hardest part of the rescue was done. The test for the new Government was never stabilisation. It was what came next.

The new Government has built on that inheritance, and the record deserves credit. Growth held at 5% in 2025. Per capita income reached an all-time high of $ 5,003. Inflation stayed below zero for most of 2025. The stock market doubled from about 11,300 points at the election to 22,624 by December 2025. Tax revenue rose from 12.3% to 15.4% of GDP in a single year, and the primary surplus hit a record 5.4% of GDP. Government debt fell from 98.4% to 94.9% of GDP. These are real achievements, and any honest scorecard begins with them.

Year one was a good year for stability: low inflation, falling rates, record revenue and a booming market. Year two has reversed most of those gains, and the oil shock explains only part of it.

But look closer at how that surplus was made.

A Government that collects but does not build

A budget surplus is earned in two ways: by raising more or by spending less. This Government has done both, and the second is the problem.

In 2026, Parliament approved Rs. 1,380 billion for capital investment: the roads, hospitals, schools and water schemes that make an economy grow. By the end of September, about Rs. 385 billion had been spent. That is roughly 28% of the year’s investment budget, with three months left. The Finance Ministry says 70% of spending usually happens in November. If so, that is not a plan; it is a year-end rush in which quality is the first casualty.

The pattern runs through the line ministries. A Right to Information disclosure from July 2025 showed that only 19% of the Health Ministry’s Rs. 18 billion medicine allocation had been spent at mid-year. For new hospital buildings, the figure was 10%. Twenty-five health construction projects, some begun in 2014, still need Rs. 76 billion to finish.

Meanwhile, the money keeps coming in. In the first half of 2026, tax revenue rose 26%. The Government ran an overall budget surplus of Rs. 9.5 billion, against a deficit of Rs. 406 billion a year earlier. A country still rebuilding from Cyclone Ditwah, with hospitals unfinished and roads washed away, posted a surplus because it could not spend what Parliament had approved.

Taxation is not a growth strategy

Sri Lanka’s entire GDP, $ 108.8 billion in 2025, is less than two months of Walmart’s global sales. An economy this small cannot tax its way to prosperity. Growth must come from investment, exports and productivity.

The signals there are mixed at best. Foreign direct investment reached $ 1.06 billion in 2025, a genuine improvement. But in the first half of 2026 it slowed to about $ 450 million, against a full-year target of $ 1.5 billion. Exports did better: $ 17.25 billion of goods and services in 2025, and up 8% in the first half of 2026. Tourism tells a harder story. Arrivals hit a record 2.36 million in 2025, but earnings rose only 1.6%, so each visitor spent about 12% less. In 2026, arrivals are slightly down on last year.

A global shock, and who was ready for it

In fairness, the energy shock of 2026 was not made in Colombo. When the Strait of Hormuz closed, Brent crude peaked at $ 118 a barrel at the end of March, and every importing country paid more. In Europe the anger spilled onto the streets. Ireland saw fuel blockades in April. Since September, France has faced port blockades by fishermen and a revived Yellow Vest movement, with diesel above pound 2.37 a litre.

North-East Asia stayed calm, and not by luck. Japan held about 254 days of oil reserves and released 80 million barrels in March. South Korea held about 208 days and capped pump prices for the first time in almost 30 years. China held about 120 days and Taiwan more than 100. They built their buffers in good years, for exactly this kind of bad one.

Sri Lanka had about six weeks of fuel. Within days, motorists were rationed to 15 litres a week, and from 16 March State offices, schools and universities moved to a four-day week. Sri Lanka has never built a strategic reserve, and that failure belongs to every Government, not this one alone. But it marks the difference between managing a crisis and preparing for one.

Preparing means scenario planning. Every year, a Government should ask what happens to fuel supply, the rupee and the Budget if oil reaches $ 100 or $ 130, or if the Gulf closes, and have the reserves, supply contracts and contingency funds ready before it does. Singapore has run a Government scenario-planning unit since 1991. Sri Lanka still plans for the year it hopes for, not the year it may get.

Interest rates and the rupee: The cushion thins

The stabilisation of 2025 has not survived its first serious test. The war in the Middle East sent fuel prices up 40%. Inflation rose from 2.2% in March to 8% by August. In May, the Central Bank raised its policy rate by a full percentage point to 8.75%. Treasury bill yields reached their highest level in 87 weeks. The rupee, at Rs. 310 to the dollar at the end of 2025, now trades around Rs. 332. The stock market has given back about 13% this year.

For borrowers, the turn has been sharp. Lending rates rose from 11.56% to 12.16%, and longer-dated Government Bonds now yield 12 to 12.5%. For a household with a pawning loan, or a small firm on an overdraft, that is the cost of living by another name. The rupee lost 7.2% in the first five months of the year and briefly touched Rs. 348 in the interbank market in May, before the Central Bank stepped in. A weaker rupee raises the price of every litre of fuel, every bag of fertiliser and every box of medicine the country imports.

Some of this is imported, and no Sri Lankan Government controls the price of oil. But a shock tests the buffers a Government has built. Reserves stand at $ 6.85 billion, barely above the $ 6.8 billion of December 2025, and short of the $ 8 billion promised to the IMF for year-end.

To its credit, the Central Bank has not printed money to fund the Government. Monetary discipline has held. Fiscal execution has not.

Slower growth, fewer jobs for the young

In June, the IMF cut its 2026 growth forecast for Sri Lanka to 3%, down from 4% before the Middle East war. The Government’s own target had been 5 to 6%.

Slower growth lands hardest on the young. An IMF comparison published in September found that 43% of Sri Lanka’s young people with post-secondary education are unemployed. That is the highest of 12 Asia-Pacific economies. National figures point the same way. Unemployment rose to 4% in the second quarter of 2026, and among 25- to 29-year-olds it jumped from 9.3% to 12.1% in a year. Net, the economy added only about 74,000 jobs over the year, while agriculture shed 174,000.

Hardship runs deeper than the headline poverty rate suggests. The World Bank puts monetary poverty at 16.9% in 2025. Yet in March, the Government’s own Rural Development Minister Upali Pannilage, said about one in four Sri Lankans lives in poverty. A 2025 survey by the International Food Policy Research Institute found that one in three households was moderately or severely food insecure, five times the 2019 level.

Families are borrowing to get by. Pawning advances rose from Rs. 660 billion in December 2024 to Rs. 1,012 billion by March 2026, up 53% in fifteen months. Credit card balances rose 17% over the same period, to Rs. 197 billion. Higher gold prices explain part of the pawning surge, but not why so many households are putting their jewellery on the counter. With State investment stalled and the 2027 capital budget cut, the jobs that would lift these families out are not being created.

Households: Spending on borrowed money, saving less

On the surface, households are spending again. Private consumption grew 9.1% in 2025 and 7.1% in real terms in the first quarter of 2026. But incomes have not caught up. At the end of 2025, real wages in the public sector were still 16.1% below their 2020 level, and in the informal private sector 11.8% below. The gap is being filled with credit. Private sector lending was growing 27% a year by April 2026, on top of the rise in pawning and card debt. Retailers now report shoppers buying only essentials, with inflation above 7%.

An economy is sustained by what its people save and invest, not by what they borrow to consume. Here the trend runs the wrong way. In its December 2025 review, the IMF projected national savings falling from 28.7% of GDP in 2024 to 23.2% in 2026, and national investment from 27.0% to 23.6%. The State saves by not spending its investment budget, while households borrow to stand still. That is not a recipe for growth.

Health: Allocated, not delivered

The health service shows the gap between allocation and delivery most painfully. The 2026 Budget gave Health and Mass Media Rs. 555 billion, its largest allocation yet. Yet medicine and equipment funds sat largely unspent at mid-year, and 25 hospital projects remain unfinished. Meanwhile, the specialists are leaving. The service needs 3,181 specialists and has 2,042, a gap of more than 1,100, and about 25 emigrate each year.

Agriculture: Going backwards

Agriculture shrank 2.3% in the second quarter of 2026, after growing 2.5% a year earlier. Rice production fell 15.1%, marine fishing 10.1% and tea 1.9%. In April, the Government had to allow emergency imports of Samba and Keeri Samba after the Maha harvest fell short. Farm employment fell by 174,000 in a year. Cyclone Ditwah destroyed an estimated $ 814 million of agricultural assets, and a bag of urea now costs Rs. 9,900 to Rs. 10,200. A country this fertile should not be importing its staple.

Energy: A promise reversed

Before the election, Anura Kumara Dissanayake promised to cut electricity bills by a third. Tariffs fell 20% in January 2025, then rose 15% in June 2025, well before any war. The Ceylon Electricity Board ended 2025 with a Rs. 38.7 billion loss. In February 2026, still before the Gulf erupted, it asked for a 13.56% increase, and from April tariffs rose by 8% to 14%. The war came on top, opening a Rs. 38 billion hole for mid-2026, which the regulator kept off 95% of consumers with a Rs. 15 billion subsidy. Low-quality coal, a procurement failure, cut output at Norochcholai. Most of the electricity problem was made at home. A third off was the promise, and voters remember it.

Losing money it already had

Good governance was the NPP’s founding promise. Yet between October 2025 and January 2026, $ 2.5 million meant for a debt repayment to Export Finance Australia was diverted to cybercriminals in ten separate transactions. It was Australia, not the Treasury, that noticed the money had not arrived. The parliamentary Committee on Public Finance found that payments continued after red flags were raised.

It was not an isolated failure. Around $ 625,000 meant for the United States Postal Service went astray through a phishing scheme, most of it in 2025. Two departments, the same weakness: payment systems that no one was watching.

Safety, and a disaster still waiting

Public safety has not improved. Police recorded 114 shootings and 60 deaths in 2025, more incidents than the 103 of 2024. By mid-September 2026, underworld-linked shootings had killed 17 people, including two children in a grenade attack in Dehiwala. The police service is short of about 40,000 officers.

Cyclone Ditwah, in November 2025, killed more than 600 people. The World Bank put direct damage at $ 4.1 billion, about 4% of GDP. Parliament approved over Rs. 500 billion for recovery projects. Nearly a year on, the opposition is still asking for a report on how much has been spent. The IMF’s latest mission called for removing the bottlenecks in capital spending to speed up reconstruction.

Power at the centre

The 2027 Appropriation Bill directs about 27% of spending to ministries held by the President, chiefly Finance and Defence. Previous presidents also held these portfolios, so the share alone is not the scandal. The trend in the President’s own office is harder to defend. Its allocation was Rs. 3.88 billion in 2023. It rose to Rs. 11.38 billion in 2026, the highest ever, and Rs. 11.2 billion is proposed for 2027. Meanwhile, the 2027 capital budget in the Appropriation Bill is 5.4% lower than this year’s, despite promises of Rs. 2 trillion in investment.

What has worked

The digital agenda deserves recognition. GovPay, the platform for paying Government charges online, has processed more than Rs. 5 billion across over 300 State institutions. Service charges on Government e-payments were scrapped in January 2026. The first digital identity cards are due by the end of this year. These are the foundations of a modern State, and they were built quietly and well.

The verdict: Country before politics

The NPP inherited a country on the road to recovery and kept it there through 2025. That counts. But a surplus built on unspent hospital and road budgets is not prudence. It is postponed development. When the first real shock arrived in 2026, the cushion proved thin.

If 2027 is to look better, the President must run the Government by delivery. Every key Ministry, from health and education to agriculture, energy and highways, should have three or four published targets for the year. Spending and progress against them should be reported in public, every month. Malaysia did this through PEMANDU, its delivery unit, from 2009; Britain did it through the Prime Minister’s Delivery Unit. Ministers who deliver should be backed. Those who do not should be moved, whatever their standing in the party.

That means spending the capital budget on time and in full. It means fixing the payment controls that let millions walk out of the Treasury, giving the families rebuilding after Ditwah an account of where the money went, and putting jobs for the young at the centre of the 2027 Budget.

The NPP promised a new way of governing. Collecting taxes was never the hard part. Building a country is. In 2027, it must be country before party.

Journalists challenged: Protect OSAEC survivors via responsible storytelling

LAPU-LAPU CITY, Cebu-For journalists, telling the stories of children who have survived sexual abuse and exploitation presents one of the most difficult challenges in reporting: How do you expose a crime that thrives in secrecy without exposing the very people who need protection?

This delicate balance between the public’s right to know and a child’s right to safety became the central discussion during a three-day media training on online sexual abuse and exploitation of children (OSAEC), held October 19-21 at Bluewater Maribago in Lapu-Lapu City, Cebu.

Organized by International Justice Mission (IJM) Philippines in partnership with the Philippine Survivor Network (PSN) and STET Women in Cebu Media, the training brought together 20 media practitioners from different parts of Visayas and Mindanao for discussions on ethical reporting, trauma-informed journalism and the responsibility of news organizations in protecting vulnerable children.

Under the theme ‘Stories That Matter, Communities That Protect,’ the gathering challenged journalists to examine not only how they report sexual exploitation cases but also whether their stories help survivors find justice or unintentionally deepen their suffering.

Several OSAEC survivors shared their insights during the duration of the training, with a consensus that a photograph, a video clip, a headline or even a seemingly harmless detail in a news report can help bring an injustice to public attention but cautioned that when handled carelessly, the same information can reveal a survivor’s identity, reopen traumatic experiences and expose a child to further harm.

For Patricia, a survivor and member of the Philippine Survivor Network (PSN), the responsibility begins with recognizing the human lives behind every story.

‘Behind every report is a life that matters, not just a headline, not just a statistic,’ she told the participating journalists.

Patricia, now a fourth-year college student pursuing a bachelor’s degree in secondary education, reminded the media practitioners that survivors should never be defined solely by the abuse they experienced.

‘We are not just numbers. We are students, workers, parents, leaders, advocates, and members of our communities,’ she said.

‘Every word, every image, and every detail can affect real lives,’ Patricia said.

When reporting is part of the problem

The organizers explained that for journalists covering crime, child protection and human rights, the challenge extends beyond gathering facts and interviewing sources.

‘A child’s face may be blurred in a photograph, but the surrounding environment, school uniform, neighborhood or family circumstances could still reveal the child’s identity. Even when names are withheld, the combination of details in a report can allow neighbors, classmates or other community members to identify a survivor.’

In video journalism, a voice, recognizable location or footage of a family home may create similar risks.

The rapid circulation of digital content further complicates the problem. Once photographs, videos and identifying information are published online, they can be copied, downloaded and shared far beyond the control of the original news organization.

For media practitioners accustomed to documenting disasters, armed conflict, crime and other sensitive situations, reporting on OSAEC requires another level of ethical judgment.

The question is no longer simply whether an image or piece of information is newsworthy, but whether publishing it serves the public interest without compromising the safety and dignity of a child.

Atty. Lovelie Faith Entoma-Forcadilla, IJM Philippines’ head of casework, emphasized that responsible reporting must begin with the principle of doing no harm.

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Journalists, she said, must balance the public interest with the best interests of the child, avoiding unnecessary interviews or descriptions that could force survivors to relive traumatic experiences.

Instead of repeatedly asking survivors to recount their abuse, reporters can seek information from social workers, aftercare providers, investigators and other qualified sources.

The goal, she explained, is to report on the crime and the systems that allow it to continue, rather than turn a survivor’s suffering into the centerpiece of a sensational story.

‘We want to tell the story of the crime, not the trauma of the survivor,’ Entoma-Forcadilla said.

A crime hidden in plain sight

The need for responsible reporting has become increasingly urgent as online child sexual exploitation continues to affect communities across the Philippines.

Entoma-Forcadilla pointed out to the participants how offenders use internet-connected devices, digital communication platforms and financial transactions to facilitate abuse.

Some cases involve the production and distribution of child sexual abuse or exploitation material, while others involve abuse transmitted live over the internet.

The exploitation may take place inside ordinary homes, sometimes involving people who have direct access to children, including relatives or even their own parents.

Entoma-Forcadilla cited findings from an IJM-supported study conducted in 2022 and released in 2023, which estimated that nearly half a million Filipino children were trafficked to produce new child sexual exploitation material that year.

The study, she said, also challenged earlier assumptions that the problem was concentrated in a few known locations.

Instead, its findings indicated that the threat extended across the country, including communities where cases were rarely reported or detected.

The figures underscore a troubling reality: A crime can remain largely invisible to the public even when it is occurring within communities.

For journalists, that creates a difficult reporting environment.

The training emphasized that unlike crimes committed in public spaces, online child sexual exploitation can take place behind closed doors, leaving few visible signs for reporters to document.

It added that fear, stigma and mistrust of authorities can also discourage survivors and families from coming forward. Yet the absence of reported cases does not necessarily mean that children are safe.

IJM pointed out that journalists can make a difference by investigating systemic failures, examining the response of authorities, explaining how communities can recognize and report suspected abuse, and holding institutions accountable without exposing survivors.

Airtel Africa revenue rises to $3.82 billion

Dar es Salaam. Airtel Africa’s revenue increased by 28.2 percent to $3.82 billion in the six months to September 30, 2026, supported by growth in mobile data and mobile money services, as its customer base expanded to 193.9 million.

The telecommunications company said revenue growth reached 20.8 percent in constant currency, with all its operating regions recording increases. Nigeria led with 27 percent growth, followed by Francophone Africa at 19.2 percent and East Africa at 18.2 percent, according to a statement issued on Tuesday November 03, 2026.

The group’s total customer base grew by 11.6 percent from 173.8 million in the corresponding period last year. Data customers increased by 15 percent to 89.9 million, while Airtel Money customers rose by 22.4 percent to 60.9 million.

Airtel Africa chief executive officer Sunil Taldar attributed the performance to demand across its markets and the implementation of the group’s business strategy.

‘Over the first half we have delivered another strong operating and financial performance, reflecting the depth of underlying demand across our markets and consistent execution of our strategy, with total customer growth remaining strong and stable,’ he said.

Mobile services revenue grew by 18.9 percent in constant currency to $3.14 billion, driven by a 28 percent increase in data revenue and an 11.1 percent rise in voice revenue.

The company said smartphone penetration reached 51.6 percent, while average monthly data usage per smartphone customer increased to 13.3 gigabytes from 10.1 gigabytes a year earlier. Data average revenue per user also rose by 10.7 percent in constant currency.

Airtel Money revenue increased by 25.8 percent in constant currency, supported by growth in its customer base and a 2.6 percent rise in average revenue per user to $2.50.

The annualised value of transactions processed through the mobile money platform reached $275 billion in the second quarter of the financial year, reflecting increased use of its financial services.

The growth also translated into higher profitability. Underlying earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) increased by 32.8 percent in reported currency to $1.92 billion, or 23.5 percent in constant currency.

The underlying EBITDA margin improved by 172 basis points to 50.3 percent for the half year. Taldar said the group maintained strong margins despite pressure from rising fuel costs.

‘In Q2’27, we delivered a record underlying EBITDA margin of 50.4 percent through a combination of operational discipline, ongoing cost efficiency programmes and continued scale benefits,’ he said.

Profit after tax rose to $452 million from $376 million in the corresponding period last year, while basic earnings per share increased to 10.2 US cents from 8.3 US cents.

Capital expenditure more than doubled to $657 million from $318 million, as the group increased investment in network capacity and coverage. Operating free cash flow grew by 6.8 percent to $972 million, compared with $910 million in the previous year.

Airtel Africa also highlighted the admission of Airtel Mobile Commerce N.V., the holding company for Airtel Money, to the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange on October 14, 2026.

The listing involved the sale of 270 million existing shares by minority shareholders, representing 10 percent of the company’s issued share capital, at £1.96 ($2.63) per share. No new capital was raised, while Airtel Africa retained a 77.85 percent stake in the business.

Mr Taldar described the listing as an important step in the group’s mobile money strategy, saying Airtel Africa remained a long-term shareholder with exposure to the business’s future growth.

The company said the listing would give Airtel Money an independent platform to pursue its expansion plans and raise its profile among international investors.

The board also approved an interim dividend of 3.1 US cents per ordinary share for the six-month period. The payment is scheduled for December 11, 2026, to shareholders registered by the close of business on November 13.

During the period, Airtel Africa completed the first tranche of its share buy-back programme, repurchasing about 24.5 million shares at a cost of $108.7 million.

Mr Taldar said the group remained confident about its prospects, citing its financial position and growing demand for digital and financial services.

Foreign currency debt exposes states to exchange rate risks

Several Nigerian states remain exposed to exchange rate risks because a significant proportion of their public debt is denominated in foreign currencies. This raises concerns about the sustainability of their borrowing and future repayment obligations.

The exposure persists even among states that recorded reductions in their total debt stock in 2025, according to BudgIT’s 2026 State of States Report, which identified foreign currency-denominated debt as a key measure of subnational debt sustainability.

The report noted that a high proportion of foreign debt makes state finances vulnerable to exchange rate movements, as fluctuations in the naira can increase the domestic currency cost of servicing and repaying external obligations.

Although the report acknowledged the relative stability of the naira over the six consecutive quarters preceding its assessment, it described foreign currency exposure as a risk that states should not ignore.

Abia, Anambra and Ondo were among the states with particularly high foreign currency exposure. Foreign debt accounted for 76.06 percent of Abia’s total debt stock, 92.73 percent of Anambra’s debt and 93.48 percent of Ondo’s N129.08 billion total debt.

BudgIT said the high foreign currency share of these states’ debt profiles exposes them to exchange rate movements even where their nominal debt stocks are stable or declining. in 2024 to N158.78 billion in 2025, largely through a 59.73 percent reduction in domestic debt, which fell from N28.68 billion to N11.55 billion.

However, the report said the currency composition of the state’s borrowing remained a concern, as foreign debt continued to account for 92.73 percent of its total debt.

Similarly, Abia reduced its total debt by 8.86 percent to N202.22 billion, but foreign debt still represented 76.06 percent of its outstanding obligations.

Cross River also recorded substantial exposure, with foreign debt accounting for 69.96 percent of its N457.31 billion total debt stock at the end of 2025. Its foreign debt increased by 10.11 percent from $202.46 million in 2024 to $222.92 million in 2025, while domestic debt declined by 16.28 percent.

The state spent N69.77 billion on debt servicing in 2025, representing 18.27 percent of its total revenue. BudgIT advised the government to strengthen exchange rate risk assessments, carefully evaluate new borrowing and prioritise concessional financing for projects with clear economic and social returns.

Edo State also recorded significant foreign currency exposure, with external debt accounting for 84.79 percent of its total debt in 2025.

Although the state’s total debt stock declined by 14.52 percent from N701.1 billion in 2024 to N599.3 billion in 2025, its foreign debt stood at $354.03 million, down from $383.05 million in the preceding year.

BudgIT said Edo’s relatively high debt burden per capita and substantial exposure to foreign debt make it necessary to assess the affordability and development returns of new borrowing. It also recommended stronger foreign exchange risk management and a credible repayment plan for outstanding liabilities.

Jigawa recorded another notable increase in foreign currency borrowing. Its foreign debt rose by 95.87 percent to $45.72 million in 2025 and accounted for 97.62 percent of its total debt stock, despite the state remaining the second-least indebted in the country.

The report, however, noted that Jigawa’s debt service-to-revenue ratio was 0.91 percent, indicating that its immediate debt servicing burden remained relatively low.

BudgIT’s revised debt sustainability assessment considers foreign currency exposure alongside total debt relative to revenue, debt servicing obligations and payment arrears. The framework is intended to provide a broader picture of states’ capacity to manage their liabilities and withstand fiscal pressures.

The report urged state governments to adopt credible medium-term debt strategies, ensure transparent reporting of guarantees and arrears, and apply conservative exchange rate risk management.

It also stressed the need for a stronger connection between borrowing and productive capital formation, arguing that debt-financed projects should expand states’ future capacity to provide services and generate revenue.

For states with substantial foreign currency obligations, the challenge is therefore not only reducing the size of public debt but also managing its composition and ensuring that repayment commitments remain sustainable under changing exchange rate conditions.

SOE profits rise in 1H, SriLankan losses deepen

The Finance Ministry yesterday said 51 major State Owned Enterprises (SOEs) reported a combined profit of Rs. 259.3 billion in the first half of 2026, up from Rs. 227.8 billion a year earlier.

The rise in cumulative earnings is despite rising input costs, supply chain disruptions and order cancellations caused by the Middle East conflict, with State banks leading the gains while Treasury subsidies supported Ceylon Petroleum Corporation (CPC) and SriLankan Airlines sank deeper into losses.

The figures are contained in the Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development’s Mid-Year Fiscal Position Report released yesterday. Between April and June, the General Treasury provided subsidies of Rs. 41 billion to the CPC and Rs. 15 billion to the National System Operator (Private) Limited (NSO) to mitigate the impact of the conflict on the public and the wider economy.

The State banks delivered the strongest results. Bank of Ceylon (BoC) reported profit before tax (PBT) of Rs. 62.6 billion, up from Rs. 59.4 billion, driven by a 9.2% rise in total operating income to Rs. 131.4 billion. Its loans and advances grew 6.6% to Rs. 2.5 trillion while deposits fell 1.6% to Rs. 4.3 trillion, and its impaired (Stage III) loans ratio, a measure of bad loans, improved to 5.01% from 5.59% at end-2025. People’s Bank recorded an all-time high PBT of Rs. 32.6 billion against Rs. 28 billion, on an 18.9% rise in net interest income to Rs. 82.4 billion, with loans up 9.7% to Rs. 1.9 trillion, deposits down 2% to Rs. 3.2 trillion and its Stage III ratio improving to 6.7% from 7.7%. National Savings Bank’s PBT fell 6.2% to Rs. 22.6 billion, mainly due to a 10% rise in personnel expenses to Rs. 13.8 billion.

The CPC’s results reflected the conflict’s direct cost. Net sales revenue rose 40.4% to Rs. 576.6 billion on higher domestic fuel prices, but its petroleum import bill surged 73.8% to $ 1.7 billion from $ 1 billion amid disruptions to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and higher shipping and insurance costs. Cost of sales rose 50.2% to Rs. 567.6 billion, cutting gross profit by 72.9% to Rs. 8.9 billion. Operating profit nevertheless rose to Rs. 23.9 billion from Rs. 11.1 billion, mainly due to the April to June subsidy, and with an unrealised exchange gain of Rs. 7.2 billion, net profit rose 71.8% to Rs. 29.2 billion. Total fuel subsidies to domestic petroleum market players amounted to about Rs. 57 billion.

SriLankan Airlines posted a loss before tax of Rs. 35.6 billion in the first quarter of the 2026/27 financial year, against Rs. 12 billion a year earlier, based on unaudited management accounts. Revenue rose to Rs. 82.8 billion from Rs. 62.6 billion, but total expenditure climbed 40.4% to Rs. 95.2 billion as aircraft fuel costs jumped about 93% to Rs. 41.2 billion, producing an operating loss of about Rs. 12.5 billion before exchange losses. The group’s net loss narrowed to Rs. 32.2 billion after Rs. 3.4 billion in net income from SriLankan Catering.

‘The above financial performance demonstrates that SLA continues to face significant structural financial and liquidity challenges,’ the report said. With total liabilities of Rs. 561.4 billion against assets of Rs. 209.9 billion, the airline reported negative equity of Rs. 351.5 billion at end-June. ‘This is particularly significant given the Company’s existing debt burden and the continuing requirement for Government support to ensure uninterrupted operations,’ the Ministry said.

That support continued in the first half. The Government serviced instalments on selected BoC and People’s Bank loans to the airline, released $ 30 million for short-term funding needs and absorbed $ 126.5 million in restructured guaranteed Bonds into the Government debt stock from 20 March, 2026. In June, the Cabinet approved a Strategy and Restructuring Committee to undertake a comprehensive review of the airline.

In the power sector, the Ceylon Electricity Board’s (CEB) functions passed to six wholly government-owned successor companies from 9 March, 2026 under the Sri Lanka Electricity Act. The Public Utilities Commission of Sri Lanka (PUCSL) approved an average 10.3% tariff increase in April and a further 18% increase in May for selected categories, including domestic consumers using more than 180 units a month and all Government entities, while the Rs. 15 billion NSO subsidy supported the remaining categories, about 95% of consumers. Electricity sales revenue rose 20% to Rs. 231.2 billion as demand grew about 7% to 9,304 GWh and average revenue per unit rose to Rs. 31.9 per kWh from Rs. 24.6. Hydropower generation fell about 23%, and despite a 57% rise in rooftop solar, thermal fuel generation increased about 88% to meet demand. The Treasury also provided Rs. 8 billion in equity to fund a Voluntary Retirement Scheme for CEB employees who did not move to the successor companies.

Sri Lanka Ports Authority (SLPA) lifted profit 19% to Rs. 29.1 billion, helped by a 9% rise in operational revenue to Rs. 44.1 billion and a foreign exchange gain of Rs. 2.7 billion, although containerised cargo fell 6% to 1.2 million TEUs. ‘The decline in containerized cargo volumes and the changing global shipping environment remain areas requiring close monitoring to sustain the Authority’s financial performance,’ the report said.

Airport and Aviation Services (Sri Lanka) (Private) Limited (AASL) more than doubled PBT to Rs. 24.9 billion from Rs. 11.2 billion, on a 17% rise in non-aeronautical revenue to Rs. 23.4 billion and an exchange gain of Rs. 5.6 billion against a loss of Rs. 4.3 billion a year earlier, as aircraft diversions to Sri Lanka offset flight cancellations, including 115 at Bandaranaike International Airport in a single day. ‘The continuing uncertainty in the Middle East, particularly its potential impact on flight connectivity and passenger movements, warrants close monitoring given the importance of Middle Eastern routes to Sri Lanka’s aviation and tourism sectors,’ the Ministry said.

Elsewhere, the National Water Supply and Drainage Board’s net profit fell 8.5% to Rs. 16.2 billion as higher pumping costs lifted cost of sales about 10%, while non-revenue water edged up to 24.4%. Sri Lanka Insurance Corporation Limited raised PBT 10.3% to Rs. 2.6 billion.

On restructuring, a dedicated SOE restructuring unit set up under the Ministry in March 2026 is liquidating 33 selected SOEs, while the Treasury had settled Rs. 2.8 billion of the Rs. 5 billion allocated in the 2026 Budget for long-outstanding Employees’ Provident Fund (EPF), Employees’ Trust Fund (ETF) and gratuity liabilities of selected SOEs by end-August.

From Tema To Dunkirk To Beirut: Ghana’s Cocaine Problem And A Reputation Under Threat

There is a disturbing pattern emerging from a succession of cocaine trafficking incidents connected to Ghana. From large consignments intercepted at the country’s ports to shipments traced to Ghana and seized in Europe and the Middle East, the incidents are raising an uncomfortable question: Is Ghana becoming an increasingly attractive transit point for international drug trafficking networks?

The latest development, the arrest of a Syrian national at Beirut’s Rafic Hariri International Airport on October 31, 2026, after arriving from Accra with approximately 46.7 kilogrammes of cocaine, should give Ghana’s security authorities considerable cause for concern.

Lebanese authorities described the seizure as the largest cocaine interception in the history of Beirut airport. The drugs were reportedly concealed in 40 packages using sophisticated packaging and insulation materials. Electronic tracking devices were also discovered.

More significantly, the operation involved cooperation between Ghanaian and Lebanese drug enforcement authorities. NACOC has confirmed that it is pursuing suspected accomplices in Ghana.

This is not an isolated incident.

A Disturbing Trail Of Incidents

On August 5, 2026, Ghanaian police intercepted 866 parcels of suspected cocaine concealed in sacks of gari at a warehouse within the Tema Harbour enclave. The consignment, estimated to have a street value of US$6.928 million, was reportedly being loaded into a 40-foot container for export. Three suspects, including a Dutch national, were arrested.

The attempt to conceal suspected cocaine in a familiar Ghanaian food commodity demonstrated the lengths to which trafficking networks could go to disguise illicit consignments within legitimate commercial activity

In September, another incident brought domestic distribution networks into focus. Police intercepted a driver’s mate at the ESP Bus Station in Wa with 192 compressed wraps of cocaine. The consignment was reportedly being transported from Kumasi through the Bole enclave. A second suspect was subsequently arrested.

But perhaps the most consequential international development was the seizure of nearly four tonnes of cocaine at the Port of Dunkirk in France. The cocaine, estimated to be worth approximately pound 225 million, was concealed in a 40-foot container declared as carrying plastic waste from Ghana.

The seizure triggered investigations in Ghana, resulting in arrests and court proceedings involving four accused persons. The investigation has also generated allegations of links to Dutch fugitive, Jos Leijdekkers, popularly known as Bolle Jos. These allegations remain subject to judicial determination.

Taken together, the incidents raise serious questions about the possible exploitation of Ghana’s ports, airports, commercial infrastructure and domestic transport networks by international drug trafficking organisations.

Ghana’s international reputation is at stake

Perhaps the most worrying consequence is the potential damage to Ghana’s international reputation. For decades, Ghana has worked to establish itself as a stable democracy and a reliable destination for international business, investment and tourism.

Our ports, airports and commercial infrastructure are important assets in our ambition to become a regional trade and logistics hub. But that ambition could be undermined if international law enforcement agencies increasingly associate Ghana with the movement of large cocaine consignments.

The warning signs are already being articulated publicly. Following the Dunkirk seizure, concerns were raised by political figures, lawyers and civil society organisations about the possibility of Ghana acquiring an international reputation as a cocaine trafficking corridor.

The implications could extend beyond drug enforcement. Legitimate Ghanaian exporters could face increased scrutiny, more intrusive inspections, delays and higher shipping costs. Airlines, logistics companies and international commercial partners could become more cautious in their dealings with Ghana.

Ghanaian travellers could also face additional questioning and scrutiny. These consequences are not inevitable, but they are risks that must be taken seriously. We cannot allow the criminal activities of a few individuals and organised networks to compromise the reputation and economic interests of an entire country.

What must the authorities do?

The response must go beyond issuing statements after every successful drug interception. Ghana needs a coordinated national investigation involving NACOC, the Police Service, National Security, Customs, the Ghana Airports Company and other relevant institutions

Authorities must establish whether these incidents are isolated operations or evidence of interconnected trafficking networks. The security of Tema Port and other major entry and exit points must be independently reviewed. Any official found to have facilitated drug trafficking must face the full consequences of the law.

Ghana must also deepen intelligence-sharing and operational cooperation with international partners, particularly France, the Netherlands and Lebanon.

Crucially, investigations must go beyond couriers and intermediaries. Authorities must identify the financiers, organisers, beneficiaries and networks behind these operations. The money must be followed, illicit assets traced and criminal proceeds recovered in accordance with the law.

The government must also demonstrate to international trading partners, airlines and diplomatic partners that Ghana is confronting the problem with seriousness, transparency and measurable results.

A national response cannot be delayed

This must not become a partisan political contest. It is a national security, economic and reputational issue that requires cooperation across political parties, public institutions, civil society and the private sector.

The Beirut arrest should be a wake-up call. The Tema seizure should have been a wake-up call. The Dunkirk discovery should certainly have been one. How many more such incidents must occur before Ghana treats this as an urgent national priority?

Ghana has too much at stake to allow its international reputation to be compromised by organised criminal networks. Our ports and airports must remain gateways for legitimate commerce, not convenient channels for international drug traffickers

Our ambition to become a major regional centre for trade, aviation, logistics and investment cannot comfortably coexist with a growing international perception that the country is vulnerable to cocaine trafficking.

The authorities must act decisively, investigate thoroughly and prosecute where the evidence supports prosecution.

Ghana must not become known internationally for cocaine when it should be known for its democracy, hospitality, entrepreneurial spirit, culture and economic potential.

The time to protect that reputation is now.

Real relief is engineered, not announced

Every month, salaried Sri Lankans see tax leave their payslip before they see their pay. For them, the debate on income tax relief is a question of whether the household budget balances after food, transport, school fees and loan instalments. The Government has indicated a proposal to raise the monthly tax-free threshold from Rs. 150,000 to Rs. 200,000 as revenue strengthens, with the timing and design still under discussion, and its stated medium-term policy is to lower tax rates while broadening the base and improving compliance. That intent is understandable and welcome. The real question is how relief is delivered.

Relief and the base must move together

The personal relief was raised from Rs. 1.2 million to Rs. 1.8 million from April 2025, and the first taxable band was widened from Rs. 500,000 to Rs. 1 million, with the 12% band removed. Some observers have reasonably cautioned that a further increase should be weighed against its revenue cost and the narrowness of the base. Those concerns deserve to be taken seriously, and they sharpen the case for careful design.

The base is narrow. Of the 2,547,322 employees in the Inland Revenue Department’s employer returns for 2024/25, about 75.6% had no tax deducted, which is consistent with earnings below the taxable threshold. On my earlier estimate, drawing on IRD and Labour Force Survey data, the system reliably reaches only around a quarter of the employed population. For 2024/25, only 25% of individual income tax returns were filed on time.

Between end-2024 and end-2025, registered income taxpayers rose 19% to about 1.3 million, and registered VAT payers rose from 21,227 to 33,187. The task now is to build on this by bringing the informal sector and self-employed into the net, and by keeping collections balanced between individuals and corporates. Relief that is not matched by a wider base leaves the same compliant taxpayers carrying the load, or leaves a gap that is filled later through higher consumption taxes that fall hardest on ordinary households.

The IRD’s APIT data for 2024/25 show how concentrated the load already is. Of the 2.55 million employees on employer returns, 1.92 million (75.6%) had no tax deducted. Their average gross pay was about Rs. 528,000 a year, or roughly Rs. 44,000 a month, which fits earnings below the threshold. The 622,419 on whom tax was deducted paid about Rs. 308,000 each on average. At the top, the 83,397 employees earning above Rs. 3.7 million (3.3% of the total) accounted for Rs. 150.5 billion, or 78.4% of all APIT, an average of about Rs. 1.8 million each. The table also shows how steeply the average tax rises between income ranges. It describes employees covered by completed employer returns for 2024/25, under the earlier Rs. 1.2 million relief, so it is a guide to the distribution of the load and not a basis for costing any change.

Individuals and corporates: how the balance looks

The balance between corporate and non-corporate taxpayers is the other side of the same question. The IRD’s 2025 data show that corporate taxpayers contributed Rs. 669.6 billion, or 59% of income tax collections, up from 57% in 2024. Non-corporate taxpayers contributed Rs. 461.7 billion, or 41%, down from 43%. Corporate collections grew by about 15% over the year, against about 4.5% for the non-corporate group. The corporate figure includes corporate income tax, dividend tax and remittance tax, while the non-corporate figure includes individual and partnership income tax, APIT , AIT and withholding taxes. The split is therefore by type of tax, not strictly by type of taxpayer.

Why the slabs, not the threshold, should be the key change

Raising the threshold takes everyone between Rs. 150,000 and Rs. 200,000 a month out of the net altogether. Revising the slabs delivers relief to those carrying the burden while keeping them inside the system. Today the first Rs. 1 million of taxable income is taxed at 6%, and the rate then jumps to 18%. An individual reaches the top rate of 36% at about Rs. 358,000 a month, which is hardly an extravagant income in today’s cost-of-living environment.

Consider, purely as an illustration and not as any official proposal, reinstating an intermediate 12% slab on the next Rs. 500,000, with the personal relief of Rs. 1.8 million unchanged. The rates would then run: 6% on the first Rs. 1 million, 12%, 18%, 24% and 30% on each successive Rs. 500,000, and 36% thereafter. The 36% rate would begin at Rs. 400,000 a month rather than Rs. 358,333. The effect on three illustrative earners is shown below.

The relief is largest in proportion for the Rs. 300,000 earner, who pays about a fifth less tax. For higher earners the benefit is capped at Rs. 10,000 a month, or Rs. 120,000 a year, so the cost per taxpayer is bounded. The total cost depends on how many taxpayers fall in each band, which the available IRD data, based on the earlier 2024/25 structure, cannot show. The Ministry of Finance and the IRD are best placed to compute and publish that figure preferably before the Budget. Importantly, nobody is removed from the net and everyone above Rs. 150,000 a month remains a taxpayer.

A package, not a single measure

This is an illustration of design, not a finished proposal. The final width and rates are for policymakers, who must weigh the revenue effect and the available fiscal space. The principles, however, are clear:

1. Pair any relief with a credible plan to widen the base, including the informal sector and the self-employed.

2. Keep the burden balanced between individuals and corporates, as it broadly is today, so that salaried earners do not become the default source of new revenue.

3. Deliver relief by reshaping the slabs, so that it reaches the middle and keeps taxpayers within the net.

4. Publish the revenue cost and the distribution of benefits alongside the Budget, so that the public can judge the fairness of the system as well as its yield.

Tax relief that reaches the common man should leave him better off and keep the system strong enough to serve him. A revised individual tax slab structure, alongside a wider base, can do both.