What can a profitable Kenyan supermarket chain and loss making artificial intelligence [AI] company valued at $2 trillion teach us about business? Do two companies, worlds apart – one with a closed initial public offering [IPO] and the other about to launch – reveal a fundamental truth about how companies create, capture and sustain value. How did a start-up with seven founders, most in their late 30s, and oldest being 43, become so respected?
Why are some businesses worth dramatically more than others, even when both create tangible value for their customers? How can Anthropic, with a recent operating loss of $ 110 billion be valued in the stratosphere of trillions of dollars?
What could Quickmart, a Kenyan supermarket chain selling bread, milk and vegetables, possibly have in common with Anthropic, the American AI company behind Claude, whose potential valuation has attracted global speculation?
One operates physical supermarkets in Kenya. The other develops AI that could transform how millions of people work and how businesses operate. Quickmart competes for the Kenyan consumer’s shopping basket. Anthropic competes to become the intelligence powering the global economy. [Not to mention it may be part of an AI bubble, and may pose an existential threat to humanity.]
Nairobi-based Quickmart founded 20 years ago, recently closed its successful IPO that aimed to raise Sh15 billion, with the supermarket chain valued at about Sh30 billion, roughly $117 million. Analysts expect the company to remain debt-free throughout the forecast period of 2026 to 2028.
San Francisco-based Anthropic, just six years old is on track to be the largest IPO ever. Aiming to raise about $100 billion, that would beat SpaceX’s $75 billion record from June.
Anthropic filed its request to go public on October 26 and will list on the NASDAQ under the ticker ANT. In the first nine months of 2026, Anthropic reported a net loss of $ 104 billion, approximately 315 percent greater than its revenue of $ 33 billion, which surged 47 percent in a recent quarter.
Growth is not the same as value creation
Imagine Quickmart opening another 10 supermarkets across Kenya, building on the 72 existing locations. Sales would almost certainly increase with the new outlets attracting customers, but would profits increase proportionately? Every new supermarket requires premises, employees, refrigeration, inventory, electricity, security and working capital.
But with growth comes additional costs and complexity.
Anthropic operates differently.
Once an AI model has been developed, it can potentially serve millions of customers across the world without opening a single physical branch. However, AI is not costless to scale.
Computing infrastructure, energy and ongoing research require enormous investment. The difference is that Anthropic has the potential to reach global markets much faster than a conventional retailer. Lesson – aim is simply not just to grow bigger, but to become more valuable as it grows.
Real prize is capturing value, not just creating it
Quickmart, profitable and well managed, creates value by making groceries accessible and affordable, with its ‘fresh and easy’ branding.
But how much of that value can it retain? Competition is intense, customers want lower prices, suppliers chase better margins, staff want a salary increase, with landlords increasing rents. Competitors are constantly attempting to attract the same shoppers.
A supermarket may create considerable value for society while operating with a net profit margin of 1 to 3 percent. Anthropic faces a similar challenge.
Yes, AI technology can help customers write software, analyse information, automate processes and make better decisions.
While the Anthropic economic value generated for customers can be immense, competitors, including OpenAI, Google and emerging open-source AI developers, threaten to make advanced intelligence increasingly affordable.
Problem faced by both is identical. How much of the value created for customers can the business capture for itself? Lesson- a successful business must design a model for capturing value, not merely delivering it.
Investors buy the future, not the past
Suppose Quickmart earns attractive profits and continues expanding successfully. Investors would typically value the company using its profitability, cash flow, growth prospects and return on capital.
Anthropic’s potential valuation, by contrast, reflects expectations about a future in which AI becomes fundamental to business, education, science and everyday life. Investors may be willing to pay extraordinary prices today, because they believe the company could eventually capture a meaningful share of an enormous global market.
But expectations are not guarantees. History is littered with businesses that attracted spectacular valuations before disappointing investors.
The dot-com boom that peaked in 2000 demonstrated that exciting technology does not automatically produce sustainable profits.
Lesson – the value of a business depends not only on what it earns today, but on what investors believe it can earn tomorrow, with the risk that those expectations may prove wrong.
Competitive advantage matters more than industry
Tempting to assume that Silicon Valley tech businesses are inherently superior to traditional supermarkets.
That may be a mistake. A well-managed supermarket chain with strong customer loyalty, excellent purchasing systems, efficient inventory management and disciplined expansion can outperform a poorly managed tech venture.
In contrast, a ‘sexy’ AI company with remarkable technology, but no sustainable competitive advantage could lose its position surprisingly quickly. Quickmart’s competitive advantage comes from its locations, supply chain, pricing and understanding of Kenyan consumers.
In contrast, Anthropic’s advantages come from research capabilities, technological performance, customer trust and integration into business systems.
Very different organisations, but the underlying principle is the same. Lesson — a business must offer something competitors cannot easily replicate.
As competition intensifies, any advantage that is easily copied eventually disappears. It is not the industry sector you operate in that determines your success – it’s the strength and durability of your competitive advantage.
Value comes from weekly adapting, paying a price for an investment in ‘out of the box’ creativity.