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You do not need a weather bulletin to know that nights have been challenging lately. Still, the bulletins are worth reading. Recently, the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) recorded 41°C in Nguru, Yobe State, and 34°C in Lagos. In May, the agency issued a heat stress alert, with temperatures of between 40 and 45°C expected in some northern states. It also warned that dust in the air could raise the risk of meningitis.

The label ‘Super El Niño’ is a media creation, not an official category. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) says El Niño is firmly established and rapidly strengthening. It forecasts a seasonal average Pacific temperature anomaly of about 3.7°C above normal for October to December, peaking around December. That would be the highest since observations began. The previous record was 2.6°C. The WMO also says this event could be among the strongest since at least 1950.

Now, consider the mortality figures. Researchers at the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab combined seasonal temperature forecasts with research on how heat affects death rates. They estimate 451,000 additional heat deaths worldwide by February 2027. Nigeria accounts for 31,400 of them. This makes it the country most likely to record the highest heat mortality worldwide. These are extra deaths compared with the average for the same months from 1996 to 2025. The period runs from September 2026 to February 2027. It is a projection, not a body count, and it can change depending on what we do.

The truth is that many heat deaths go unnoticed. A man with high blood pressure has a stroke after a day in a tin-roofed workshop. A grandmother with weak kidneys becomes dehydrated and does not recover. A baby in an airless room develops a fever. The record will name the failing organ, and the weather often goes unmentioned. That is why heat-related deaths are so easily missed.

Rainfall is the other concern. For this season, the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), which monitors food security, reports that cumulative rainfall deficits have been recorded across the Sahel. This includes parts of south-western, north-western and north-eastern Nigeria. The same report cites some of the most severe deficits in the north-east. Dry spells of more than eight consecutive days occurred in several Sahel areas between late August and 20 September. Late rains are unlikely to make up the full shortfall. A later FEWS NET report describes the deficits in north-eastern Nigeria as moderate.

A rainfall deficit is not the same as a declared drought. Yet, the trend points in one direction. NiMet’s February forecast warned of prolonged dry spells and a severe August break in some parts of the country. That forecast assumed a mostly neutral climate pattern, and the Pacific has since changed. A senior NiMet meteorologist, Musa Tanko, expects the effects to be worse in the north. Rainfall could fall there and dry spells could lengthen, and he expects heat stress to peak between March and May 2027. He also cautions that some places may see long dry spells and sudden heavy rain in the same season. The WMO adds that its seasonal signals do not replace local forecasts.

Now, a poor harvest affects people far from the farm. Wells and streams run low, and people drink from whatever source is available. That is how dry weather leads to diarrhoea, cholera and malnutrition. Food prices then rise, and children are the first to eat less.

So who is most at risk? The researchers point to people over 65, children under five, people with chronic conditions, and outdoor workers such as farmers who have no way of cooling down. I would add pregnant women, whose bodies are already working harder. Poverty widens the gap. The same researchers note that more than 60% of Nigerians were estimated to live below the national poverty line in 2025. About 87.3 million Nigerians have no access to electricity. For many families, a good fan is unaffordable.

The government has a clear job here. It must issue heat warnings in plain language, keep clinics stocked and protect water supplies. We should demand all of it. However, a radio warning will not remind your father to drink water, and a policy paper will not cool a child’s room. Those tasks are our responsibility.

Drink water regularly, not only when you are thirsty. You are already behind if your urine is dark. Keep sleeping rooms ventilated. Wet a cloth and cool a child’s face and neck. Never leave anyone in a parked car, even for five minutes. Move heavy work to the early morning or the evening. If you must work in the afternoon, rest in the shade every hour. Employers and foremen share this duty. Give breaks. Provide water. Do not push people through the hottest hours.

You must know the danger signs. Confusion, heavy drowsiness, hot dry skin, vomiting or fainting may mean heatstroke. That is an emergency. Move the person into shade and remove excess clothing. Cool the skin with wet cloths and fanning, and rush the person to the hospital. Do not force fluids on someone who is not fully awake.

If you take medicine for blood pressure, diabetes, epilepsy or kidney problems, speak to a pharmacist or doctor this week. Some tablets make you pass more urine, which can worsen dehydration in the heat. Do not stop any medicine on your own. Stock for a few weeks in case the roads or the pharmacy become difficult to reach.

Water safety matters more as supplies shrink. Boil or treat what you drink. Keep storage containers covered. Wash your hands with soap. If a child has watery stools, start oral rehydration salts immediately. Take reports of cholera or meningitis near you seriously, and seek care early.

Then think about the people around you. Who lives alone on your street? Which elderly neighbour has no fan? Which relative in the north depends on a borehole that may soon run low? A phone call, a sachet of oral rehydration salts or a bottle of treated water can make a real difference to how that person copes.

Nothing we do will cool the Pacific. However, the projected toll is not fixed. The final count will depend on what households, employers and officials do in the coming months. A neighbour checked on, a worker given shade and a child given water in time all lower that number.

Seven months of unpaid salaries for support staff at the Port Harcourt Refining Company (PHRC) have triggered disagreement among energy stakeholders, with some demanding urgent intervention while others question the justification for maintaining a large workforce at a refinery operating below capacity.

The affected workers recently protested over the salary arrears, appealing to President Bola Tinubu to intervene.

They alleged that support staff were owed seven months’ salaries, security contractors eight months, and cleaners nine months.

Energy expert and lecturer, Dr. Joseph Obele, condemned the situation, describing it as unfair and unacceptable, and called on the management of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) and the Federal Government to resolve the crisis.

Obele also expressed concern over the reported monthly salary of about N156,000 for support staff, arguing that the amount was inadequate given the cost of living and the demands of working at a strategic national asset.

He questioned why permanent employees were reportedly receiving their salaries while support staff, cleaners and security personnel remained unpaid for months.

‘If there is money to pay one category, there should be a clear explanation why another category remains unpaid,’ he said.

Obele argued that workers should not bear the consequences of the refinery’s operational difficulties, insisting that their welfare should be addressed regardless of the facility’s production status.

He also said workers had alleged that the refinery coordinator promised a new salary structure from October 2026, urging management to implement any approved changes without further delay.

The energy expert further called on management to consider the workers’ request for a N1 million housing or rent relief package per support staff member, subject to applicable welfare policies.

He cited a reported disparity between the approximately N2 million earned by the least-paid NNPCL staff at the facility and the N156,000 received by support workers, saying the gap required urgent examination.

‘You cannot build a successful refinery on unpaid workers. The refinery may be temporarily unproductive, but workers should not be made the casualties of that situation,’ he said.

Obele urged the protesting workers to remain peaceful and called for an urgent meeting involving the refinery coordinator, relevant authorities and labour representatives to settle the arrears and restore confidence.

However, another energy expert, Rasheed Adeleke, said the salary dispute reflected deeper problems in Nigeria’s refinery management, questioning the resources spent on maintaining facilities that had failed to deliver expected output.

He argued that the government needed to account for the substantial expenditure on refinery maintenance and personnel despite limited refining performance.

‘We pay billions to maintain a refinery that does not work, we pay permanent staff to manage failure, and now we are arguing about paying support staff to clean idle machines and guard empty tanks,’ Adeleke said.

He called for an audit of manpower and contract staff at PHRC, insisting that Nigerians deserved to know the value being obtained from the resources committed to maintaining the facility.

Adeleke also questioned the number of workers required to maintain the refinery during periods of limited operations, saying a review could help establish appropriate staffing levels and accountability.

Another analyst, Bola Joseph, opposed the workers’ demand, arguing that maintaining and paying all categories of staff while the refinery was not operating optimally could encourage redundancy.

‘If the refinery is not working, there is no justification to keep paying all categories of workers,’ he said, adding that the government should consider reducing the workforce rather than increasing salaries or approving additional allowances without clear justification.

The dispute highlights the tension between workers’ welfare and concerns about the management of public resources at the refinery.

The affected workers were reportedly still awaiting payment as of the period following their last public protest on October 6, with stakeholders divided over whether the immediate priority should be settling salary arrears, reviewing staffing arrangements or addressing the refinery’s operational challenges.