Kazakhstan’s growing interest in exporting more of its oil through Azerbaijan may initially appear to be just another energy-sector development. But Astana’s consideration of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) and Baku-Supsa pipelines as additional export routes points to something much broader: Azerbaijan’s potential emergence as one of the Caspian region’s key energy transit hubs.
Kazakhstan currently relies heavily on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) route to export its oil. The pipeline carries most of Kazakhstan’s crude through Russian territory to the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk. As regional geopolitical and security dynamics continue to evolve, however, Kazakhstan has increasingly looked at alternative routes that could diversify its export infrastructure, and this, in particular, creates an important opportunity for Azerbaijan.
First of all, one of the most significant alternatives is the Trans-Caspian route. Kazakh oil can be transported across the Caspian Sea to Azerbaijan and then moved westward through existing infrastructure. One option is the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, which carries crude from Azerbaijan through Georgia and Trkiye to the Mediterranean port of Ceyhan. Another is the Baku-Supsa route, which connects Azerbaijan with Georgia’s Black Sea coast.
For Azerbaijan, the importance of these routes goes well beyond the transit of crude oil.
When Kazakh oil enters Azerbaijan, economic activity is generated across a much broader logistics chain. Ports, terminals, tankers, storage facilities, pipelines, railways and other transportation services can all benefit from increased volumes. Kazakhstan remains the owner of the oil, but part of the economic value generated by transporting that oil to international markets can remain in Azerbaijan.
This could become increasingly important for Azerbaijan’s long-term economic model.
For decades, Azerbaijan has primarily been viewed as an oil and gas producer and exporter. Its future role in the regional energy system, however, can increasingly extend beyond the production of its own resources.
Azerbaijan can become a country through which the energy resources of the wider Caspian and Central Asian region reach global markets.
This would represent a significant evolution in the country’s energy strategy: from an energy producer to an energy transit hub.
The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline is central to this transformation. BTC was originally developed as a major export route for Azerbaijani crude, connecting the Caspian region with the Mediterranean. Growing interest from Kazakhstan gives the pipeline an even broader regional significance.
It could increasingly serve as part of a wider energy corridor linking Central Asia with Trkiye and European markets.
The same logic applies to the Baku-Supsa route. Greater use of this infrastructure would strengthen Azerbaijan’s position as a connection point between the Caspian and Black Sea regions, creating another channel through which Central Asian energy resources can reach international markets.
The strategic significance of Azerbaijan’s geography therefore becomes increasingly apparent.
Located on the western shore of the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan provides a natural connection between Central Asia and the markets of Trkiye and Europe. At the same time, the country already has oil and gas pipelines, ports, transportation infrastructure and established energy partnerships connecting it with western markets. Besides, that combination gives Azerbaijan an important advantage.
The opportunity is not limited to oil. As regional energy connections deepen, the same infrastructure and logistics network can support the movement of other energy resources and related products. Azerbaijan’s role in the transportation of natural gas, energy products and potentially other commodities can further strengthen its position within the emerging East-West economic corridor.
This could also generate benefits beyond direct transit revenues. Larger energy flows can stimulate investment in ports, pipelines, storage facilities, shipping and logistics. They can also deepen economic ties between Azerbaijan and Central Asian states while increasing the importance of the country’s transportation infrastructure.
In this sense, Kazakhstan’s interest in alternative oil routes is more than a question of transportation.
It is part of a broader transformation in the economic geography of the Caspian region.
As Central Asian countries seek more diversified routes to international markets, Azerbaijan’s geographical position becomes increasingly valuable. The country can serve not merely as an exporter of its own energy resources, but as a platform connecting the energy-producing economies of Central Asia with Trkiye, the Mediterranean and Europe.
For Azerbaijan, the strategic objective should therefore go beyond simply exporting its own oil.
A much larger opportunity lies in becoming one of the principal gateways through which the wider region’s energy resources reach global markets.
Kazakhstan’s growing interest in the Azerbaijani route could be an important step in that direction.