Category: Azer News

Sweden’s Parliament, the Riksdag, has approved a proposal to lower the age of criminal responsibility to 14 for certain serious crimes. The measure is part of a broader package of tougher rules targeting juvenile crime and organized criminal networks. According to the government, the changes are aimed at responding to the growing involvement of increasingly younger people in serious criminal activity, AzerNEWS reports.

The decision follows several months of political debate. The government initially proposed lowering the age to 13, but that proposal failed to gain sufficient support. A revised proposal setting the minimum age at 14 was then introduced. The new rules are intended to apply for a five-year period, with most of the changes scheduled to enter into force on September 10, 2026.

Under the new legislation, 14-year-olds suspected of certain particularly serious offences could face criminal penalties, including imprisonment. The reform also includes tougher rules for young offenders, reduced sentence discounts for those under 18, and stricter forms of youth supervision.

Swedish authorities have been preparing for the possibility of younger offenders entering the criminal justice system. The government has also introduced measures allowing law enforcement to use additional investigative tools in cases involving children under 15, including searches and, in certain circumstances, the collection of biometric data.

The reform is particularly notable because Sweden has traditionally placed strong emphasis on rehabilitation rather than imprisonment for young offenders. The decision therefore represents a significant shift in the country’s approach to juvenile crime.

An important factor behind the change is the growing concern over criminal gangs recruiting minors to carry out serious offences. Swedish authorities have warned that young people are increasingly being drawn into organized crime, sometimes because their age makes them less likely to face traditional criminal penalties. The government hopes that tougher legislation will help address this trend, although the reform is also likely to fuel debate over how to balance public safety with the rights and rehabilitation of children.

Azerbaijan entered 2026 with a state budget built around an average oil price assumption of $65 per barrel. That figure, set below the $70 assumption used for 2025, reflects a prudent approach to a commodity market where prices can change sharply under the influence of global supply, demand and geopolitical developments. Yet the oil market has moved considerably above that budget benchmark, creating a favorable environment for Azerbaijan’s public finances.

The significance of the $65 assumption becomes particularly clear against the latest oil-market outlook. The U.S. Energy Information Administration now expects Brent crude to average around $85 per barrel in the third quarter of 2026, while its broader annual forecast has also been raised significantly. The EIA attributes the higher outlook to disruptions affecting oil production and shipments in the Middle East, including reduced flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

For Azerbaijan, this creates an important financial cushion. The state budget was designed on the basis of a considerably lower oil price, meaning that an extended period of prices above $65 provides a stronger external environment than the one assumed during budget planning. Azerbaijan’s 2026 budget materials projected state revenues at AZN 38.423 billion, equivalent to 28.6% of GDP, using the $65 oil-price assumption.

The difference between the budget assumption and current market expectations is therefore more than a statistical curiosity. It demonstrates the value of conservative fiscal planning in an oil-producing economy. When the budget is built around a moderate price assumption, a period of stronger oil prices can provide additional room for maintaining fiscal stability, supporting public investment and strengthening the country’s broader financial position.

At the same time, the current oil-price environment should be viewed in its proper context. Much of the recent increase is connected to disruptions in global oil supply and transportation. The EIA estimates that about 5.5 million barrels per day of Middle Eastern oil production was shut in during July, while constrained shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have further tightened the market. The agency expects global oil supply to remain below earlier expectations in 2026, while demand remains comparatively strong.

This is important for Azerbaijan because the country benefits not only from the price of oil but also from the volume it is able to produce and export. Azerbaijan’s oil and condensate production has been gradually declining, with the EIA forecasting liquid hydrocarbon production at about 550,000 barrels per day for 2026 and around 540,000 barrels per day in the third and fourth quarters.

Consequently, higher prices are particularly valuable because they can partly offset the effect of lower production volumes. In simple terms, when fewer barrels are produced, a stronger price environment helps preserve export revenues. This makes the current market situation favorable for Azerbaijan even though the country’s long-term energy strategy increasingly extends beyond crude oil.

Another important point is that Azerbaijan’s $65 budget assumption should not be interpreted as a forecast that oil will actually trade at $65 throughout the year. It is a planning benchmark. The government has effectively created a margin between the price used for fiscal planning and the price that the market may ultimately deliver. That margin can be especially useful in a volatile environment.

The outlook for 2027 also reinforces the importance of this approach. The EIA expects Brent prices to decline from elevated 2026 levels as global trade and Middle Eastern production gradually recover, although the agency now expects the decline to be less pronounced than previously forecast. Its latest outlook puts the 2027 Brent average at about $69.39 per barrel.

That forecast is remarkably close to Azerbaijan’s $65 budget benchmark. It suggests that the country’s fiscal planning is positioned around a price level that remains relatively resilient even if the extraordinary geopolitical premium in today’s oil market fades.

For Azerbaijan, this is ultimately a story about fiscal flexibility. The country is entering a period in which oil prices are providing a favorable external backdrop while the state budget remains anchored to a comparatively cautious price assumption. That combination gives Azerbaijan an opportunity to benefit from stronger energy revenues without relying entirely on the continuation of unusually high oil prices.

The broader lesson is equally important. In commodity-producing economies, the strongest position is not necessarily created by assuming the highest possible oil price. It is created by planning around a reasonable baseline and allowing favorable market conditions to provide additional financial space.

With its 2026 budget based on $65 oil, Azerbaijan has done precisely that. If oil prices remain above this level for a substantial part of the year, the country will enjoy a meaningful cushion. And if prices eventually normalize closer to the long-term range projected by international energy analysts, the underlying budget assumption will still provide a relatively stable foundation.

In an oil market defined by uncertainty, Azerbaijan’s $65 benchmark therefore stands out not as a limitation, but as a source of fiscal resilience.

The U.S. State Department has created a special unit to combat so-called ‘birth tourism’ – a practice in which foreign nationals travel to the United States primarily to give birth, allowing their children to obtain U.S. citizenship, AzerNEWS reports.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced the move on X, saying the new unit would monitor visa holders, investigate illegal birth-tourism networks, and crack down on what he described as abuse of U.S. immigration laws.

According to Rubio, the department has already revoked more than 600 visas worldwide in just one month as part of the crackdown.

The move follows an executive order signed by President Donald Trump aimed at restricting travel to the United States for the sole purpose of giving birth and obtaining citizenship for a child. Under the measures, people suspected of being involved in birth tourism could face visa cancellation, denial of entry, removal from the country and restrictions on future travel to the United States.

Birth tourism has been a controversial issue in the U.S. for years. Some agencies have openly offered foreign clients assistance with accommodation, travel and medical services during pregnancy. Authorities are now expected to pay closer attention to these networks and the people facilitating such trips.

The issue is also legally sensitive. Birthright citizenship is linked to the 14th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, which has long been interpreted as providing citizenship to most people born on American soil. As a result, the government’s attempts to restrict birth tourism have sparked a wider debate over immigration policy and the constitutional limits of presidential power.

From October 28 to November 8, 2026, the capital of Azerbaijan will once again transform into the epicenter of the global art world, welcoming the Baku International Arts Festival, AzerNEWS reports.

This large-scale, multi-genre festival, held annually since 2025, will bring together key figures of the contemporary international scene, including artists, choreographers, dancers, musicians, acclaimed performers, and directors.

The festival’s theatrical program will open with the acclaimed production of The Seagull, directed by Lev Dodin and based on the play by Anton Chekhov. This recent premiere by the Maly Drama Theatre – Theatre of Europe (St. Petersburg, Russia), which has been honored with the prestigious Golden Sofit and Golden Mask awards, will be performed on October 29 and 30 on the stage of the Azerbaijan State Academic Musical Theatre. The outstanding director has been associated with Chekhov’s dramaturgical legacy for many years, and this performance is a non-trivial, deep reading of the classics, where Chekhov’s reflections on art and life are woven into the fabric of the play. Truly magnificent is the ensemble of actors with whom Dodin creates another Chekhovian universe: Igor Chernevich as Trigorin, Elizaveta Boyarskaya – who created a complex, spectacular, and unusual image of Arkadina – Sergey Kuryshev as Sorin, Anna Zavtur as Zarechnaya, Evgeny Zayfrid as Treplev, Oleg Ryazantsev as Medvedenko, and Polina Sevastianikhina as Masha. The metaphorical scenography of one of the most significant artists of the contemporary scene, Alexander Borovsky – the image of the lake stage and swaying boats – embodies Chekhov’s sense of the fragility of human existence. In Dodin’s words, The Seagull is specifically dedicated to people of art and life in art: ‘Suddenly it became important that we are talking about artists – about those who feel life particularly acutely and react to it in their own way, but each time, I would say, fervently. This is to an even higher degree about ourselves, about our circle of reflections today, about our questions, our responsibility and irresponsibility.’

Immediately following The Seagull, the festival audience will experience another fresh interpretation of world literary classics on the very same stage. On November 1 and 2, the famous Gesher Theatre (Tel Aviv, Israel) will present a new production by Dmitry Krymov, one of the most influential directors of his generation. Krymov’s theatre thrives on the laws of imagination and play – a dangerous, wonderfully absurd kind of play that remains deeply grounded in reality. The production Bloody Mary, first performed in June 2026, is neither a stage adaptation nor an illustration of Friedrich Schiller’s famous drama Mary Stuart, which inspired it. Instead, it creates an entirely new artistic world constructed from the fragments of a tragic plot, from our shared memory of it, and contemporary realities, in which Mary Stuart becomes a springboard for serious reflection. The main characters, performed by Sasha Demidov (Queen Elizabeth) and Evgenia Dodina (Mary Stuart), are fictional, grotesque, almost circus-like. They are people-symbols who come to life and take on flesh and blood right before our eyes. The masks crack, clowning gives way to confession, and abstract images become living human bodies. In Krymov’s theatre, the comical constantly coexists with the tragic, in which play becomes both a form of existence and a means of navigating our tangled lives.

Equally compelling will be the productions presented on the stage of the Azerbaijan State Academic National Drama Theatre. On November 5 and 6, world-renowned choreographer Shahar Binyamini, who emerged from the legendary Batsheva Dance Company and the school of Ohad Naharin, will combine two of his significant works – New Earth and Bolero X – into a single evening. New Earth is a hypnotic, almost primal experience in which the dancers’ crawling movements coalesce into organic, continuously disintegrating patterns. The piece premiered in 2025 at the Bregenzer Frhling festival in Austria. Bolero X is Binyamini’s reimagining of Ravel’s famous iconic score. Originally created in 2023 for Ballet BC (Ballet British Columbia) in Vancouver, it has evolved into a massive ensemble work, featuring up to 50 dancers moving simultaneously to explore the tension between individuality and collective power through Ravel’s relentless crescendo. Binyamini brings an impeccable global reputation to this staging, having created works for premier companies such as the Paris Opera, Teatro alla Scala in Milan, and the Bordeaux National Ballet.

One of the core principles of this year’s BIAF is the close collaboration between world-class visionaries who shape the cultural agenda and the artists of Azerbaijan. As part of this initiative, Shahar Binyamini will personally select and mentor dancers from the Azerbaijan State Academic Opera and Ballet Theatre and the Baku Choreography Academy. Through intensive training sessions, he will directly integrate these young performers into the stagings at the Baku festival.

The second multi-genre Baku International Arts Festival (BIAF), held with the support of the Heydar Aliyev Foundation and the Ministry of Culture of Azerbaijan, will be memorable with more than 20 events of various genres across Baku’s finest venues. Among them are concerts, ballet and theatrical productions, film screenings, artist talks, and masterclasses. This grand celebration of the arts will unite artists and creative companies from Azerbaijan, Canada, France, Israel, Monaco, Russia, the UK, the USA, and other countries.

Kazakhstan’s national oil transportation company KazTransOil shipped 155,000 tons of Kazakh oil via the Port of Aktau toward the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline in July 2026, marking an 11.5% increase compared with the same month last year.

AzerNEWS reports that the latest figures reflect Kazakhstan’s continued efforts to increase oil exports through the Trans-Caspian route and diversify its export infrastructure.

Kazakhstan has been steadily increasing shipments to the BTC system. In the first half of 2026, KazTransOil loaded 1.713 million tons of oil onto tankers at the Port of Aktau, including 704,000 tons destined for the BTC pipeline.

Kazakh Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov previously said the country planned to transport 2.2 million tons of oil through the BTC system in 2026. He also said the annual volume could potentially reach 2.5-3 million tons, depending on year-end shipments.

Kazakhstan exported approximately 1.2 million tons of oil through the BTC pipeline in 2025, meaning the country is seeking to significantly increase volumes through the route this year.

The BTC pipeline, which connects Azerbaijan’s Caspian coast with Georgia and Trkiye’s Mediterranean port of Ceyhan, has become an important component of Kazakhstan’s efforts to diversify oil export routes and expand shipments through the Caspian Sea.

The increase in Kazakh crude deliveries also strengthens Azerbaijan’s role as a key transit hub for Central Asian energy exports and supports the broader development of Trans-Caspian connectivity.

Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Digital Development and Transport is exploring cooperation with China’s CITIC Group on the development of an artificial intelligence (AI) computing platform planned for Baku, AzerNEWS reports.

Deputy Minister Samaddin Asadov met with a delegation from CITIC Group led by Benjamin Bao, the Chinese state-owned conglomerate’s vice president, to discuss potential areas of cooperation.

A key topic was the planned AI computing platform, which is expected to be developed in stages and have an initial capacity of up to 1 gigawatt (GW). The sides discussed the possibility of involving CITIC Group as a potential partner, including in financing and construction and installation works.

The meeting also covered potential cooperation between CITIC Group and AZCON Holding on projects in the transport and telecommunications sectors, as well as initiatives related to Azerbaijan’s National Artificial Intelligence Center.

The talks are part of Azerbaijan’s broader efforts to develop its digital economy and expand international strategic partnerships in advanced technologies and infrastructure.

CITIC Group is one of China’s largest state-owned enterprises and operates across five major business areas: financial services, industrial manufacturing, advanced materials, infrastructure and urban development. The group’s total assets are estimated at around $1.5 trillion.

Azerbaijan’s latest discussions with China’s Xinjiang Joinworld Co., Ltd. should be viewed as more than an effort to expand aluminum production. The country already has an established aluminum industry and, through Azeraluminium, remains the South Caucasus’ only producer of primary aluminum. The real opportunity lies beyond simply producing more metal. It is about using foreign technology, investment and expertise to take Azerbaijan’s aluminum industry to the next level, transforming existing industrial capacity into higher-value production and positioning the country further up the global industrial value chain.

This is what makes the recent Azerbaijan-China talks particularly interesting. Economy Minister Mikayil Jabbarov said discussions with Xinjiang Joinworld focused on joint projects, modern technologies, innovative solutions, know-how and the transfer of expertise. The company specializes in aluminum and metallurgical technologies. The discussions therefore appear to be about expanding industrial capabilities rather than simply creating another source of basic aluminum production.

That distinction matters for Azerbaijan’s economic strategy. Producing primary aluminum is valuable, but the greatest economic opportunity comes when raw or semi-processed materials are transformed into products with substantially higher added value. Aluminum sheets, rolled products, profiles, components and specialized alloys can generate considerably more industrial value than exporting basic metal alone.

Azerbaijan already has a foundation on which such an expansion can be built. Azeraluminium is the country’s primary aluminum producer, while previous modernization plans have targeted increased production capacity and the development of rolled aluminum products. Earlier cooperation with German technology partners also envisaged major investments in expanding aluminum production and processing capacity.

The emerging cooperation with Chinese companies should therefore be viewed as part of a broader industrial transformation. In January, Azerbaijan also held discussions with Chinese companies Wanji and Sunstone about potential joint projects in aluminum production. Sunstone, for example, specializes in carbon materials used in the aluminum industry. This indicates that Azerbaijan is exploring cooperation with different parts of the Chinese industrial ecosystem rather than focusing on a single investment project.

For Azerbaijan, the potential benefit is not limited to foreign capital. Technology may be even more important. Modern metallurgical production requires sophisticated equipment, process management, energy efficiency, automation and continuous technological upgrading. Partnerships with experienced international companies can shorten the time required to develop these capabilities domestically.

There is also an important export dimension. Azerbaijan has already demonstrated that aluminum can be a significant non-oil export product. In January-November 2022, the country exported more than 40,500 tons of aluminum worth $114 million. More recently, Azerbaijan has been seeking to increase production and shift toward higher-value processed products.

This strategy fits Azerbaijan’s broader effort to diversify its economy. The objective is not necessarily to replace the country’s energy sector, but to use existing advantages in energy, infrastructure, logistics and industrial policy to create new sources of export revenue.

Energy is particularly relevant. Aluminum production is energy-intensive, and Azerbaijan’s energy resources and infrastructure can provide an important competitive advantage. If energy can be converted into industrial products rather than being exported only in raw or primary forms, the country can capture a greater share of the value created along the production chain.

Location adds another advantage. Azerbaijan sits along the Middle Corridor linking China with Europe. A competitive aluminum-processing industry could therefore serve not only the domestic market but also regional markets in Trkiye, Central Asia and Europe. The combination of industrial production and logistics connectivity could make Azerbaijan more attractive as a regional manufacturing platform.

The development of the Western Industrial Park also points in this direction. Azerbaijan has increasingly emphasized deeper processing, stronger links between raw-material extraction and manufacturing, and the development of high-value-added metal products. These priorities suggest that metallurgy is being considered as a broader industrial ecosystem rather than a collection of individual factories.

There is, however, an important difference between discussing cooperation and delivering a project. The latest talks with Xinjiang Joinworld do not yet provide details on investment size, production capacity, ownership structure or construction timelines. The real economic significance will become clearer only if the discussions lead to a concrete joint venture, financing agreement and defined production plan.

If that happens, the strategic value could be substantial. Azerbaijan would not simply be producing more aluminum; it could be developing a deeper industrial chain around aluminum and metallurgy, attracting technology, creating skilled employment, expanding non-oil exports and strengthening its position as a manufacturing and logistics hub between Asia and Europe.

The real opportunity, therefore, is not to ask why Azerbaijan needs China if Azerbaijan already produces aluminum. The better question is how Azerbaijan can combine its existing industrial base with international technology and investment to produce better, more sophisticated and more valuable products. That is where the next stage of the country’s aluminum story may lie.

Pakistan’s Independence Day was marked in Baku with a ceremony at the Baku office of the Embassy of Pakistan, bringing together officials, diplomats and members of the Pakistani and Azerbaijani communities to commemorate the country’s 79 years of independence. Opening the ceremony, Ambassador of Pakistan to Azerbaijan Qasim Mohiuddin reflected on the country’s long struggle for independence, the sacrifices of its forefathers and the achievements Pakistan has made since 14 August 1947.

Pakistan’s independence was not granted easily. It was achieved through a determined political struggle and immense sacrifices by those who envisioned a sovereign homeland. Seventy-nine years later, Independence Day offers an opportunity not only to remember that struggle, but also to consider how Pakistan has sought to translate independence into economic resilience, national security and a greater role in international affairs.

One of the most important developments in recent years has been the government’s efforts to achieve economic stability and move Pakistan towards a more developed economy. The journey remains demanding, but economic stabilisation provides an essential foundation for sustainable growth, investment and improved living standards.

National security remains equally central to Pakistan’s experience. The country’s Armed Forces have demonstrated unwavering resolve in defending Pakistan against external threats. For a state located in one of the world’s most complex geopolitical environments, maintaining security is closely linked to preserving the conditions necessary for economic development and national progress.

Yet Pakistan’s strategic role extends beyond security. Today, Islamabad presents itself as a strong advocate of peace and continues to seek a constructive role amid an increasingly complicated regional environment. Its ambition is to act as a responsible nation and a stabilising force, contributing to global peace, regional cooperation and diplomatic engagement.

The Makkah Joint Defence Agreement between Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Trkiye is an important expression of this evolving strategic role. Beyond its security dimension, the agreement reflects Pakistan’s growing engagement with key regional partners and its emerging strategic weight in a changing geopolitical landscape.

Pakistan’s foreign policy, however, also remains shaped by longstanding questions of justice and self-determination. Islamabad continues to express unwavering solidarity with the Palestinian people and with the people of Jammu and Kashmir, reiterating its principled support for their rights.

For Pakistan, lasting peace in South Asia remains inseparable from a diplomatic resolution of the Jammu and Kashmir dispute, in accordance with relevant United Nations resolutions, international law and the aspirations of the Kashmiri people. Whatever the broader geopolitical shifts, Islamabad continues to regard diplomacy and international law as essential to resolving the dispute.

This is also where Pakistan’s relationship with Azerbaijan carries particular significance. Baku has consistently demonstrated strong solidarity with Pakistan on issues of concern, including Jammu and Kashmir. The depth of this relationship goes beyond conventional diplomatic ties, reflecting a broader sense of political trust and mutual support between two brotherly countries.

Pakistan’s 79th Independence Day therefore carries a meaning that extends beyond commemoration. It is a reflection on a country that emerged from a historic struggle, has faced repeated economic and security challenges, and continues to seek a stronger role in regional and global affairs.

For Pakistan and Azerbaijan alike, the years ahead offer an opportunity to build on that friendship through closer political coordination, stronger economic ties and continued support for peace and regional cooperation. The enduring message of Pakistan’s Independence Day is ultimately not only about the past, but about the country’s continuing effort to shape its future.

The 2026/27 Azerbaijan Premier League season kicks off on August 14, AzerNEWS reports.

Turan Tovuz will face Gabala in the opening match of the season. The game will kick off at 19:30.

The other matches of the opening round will be played over the following days.

On August 15, Araz-Nakhchivan will face Imishli, while Sabah will take on Kapaz. On August 16, Sumgayit will play Neftchi, and Zira will face Safa.

The final match of the opening round will take place on August 17, with Qarabag hosting Shamakhi at the Tofig Bahramov Republican Stadium.

The 2026/27 Azerbaijan Premier League season will kick off on August 14, with 12 teams set to compete for the country’s top-flight football title.

The championship, officially known as the Misli Premier League for sponsorship purposes, will be played over three rounds. Each team will play 33 matches during the season. According to the regulations of the Professional Football League (PFL), three points are awarded for a win and one point for a draw.

The opening round will take place from August 14 to 17. The first match of the new season will see Turan Tovuz host Gabala on August 14.

The remaining opening-round fixtures are scheduled as follows: Araz-Nakhchivan vs Imishli and Sabah vs Kapaz on August 15; Sumgayit vs Neftchi and Zira vs Shafa on August 16; and Qarabag vs Shamakhi on August 17. The official AFFA calendar confirms the fixture dates for the 2026/27 season.

The 2026/27 campaign features 12 clubs. At the end of the season, the team finishing first will qualify for the UEFA Champions League qualifying stage, while the second- and third-placed teams will earn places in the UEFA Conference League qualifying stage. The winner of the Azerbaijan Cup will qualify for the UEFA Europa League qualifying stage, subject to the competition’s qualification rules.

The team finishing last in the league will be relegated, while the 11th-placed side will play a relegation play-off against the second-placed team from the Azerbaijan First League for a place in the Premier League.

The new campaign follows the 2025/26 season, in which Sabah won its first Azerbaijan Premier League title.

The upcoming season is therefore set to begin with a new championship race involving 12 clubs competing for domestic honours and qualification for UEFA competitions.

Recent messages from the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia are increasingly strengthening the impression that the conflict that shaped relations between the two countries for more than three decades is moving into the past, while peace and practical cooperation are becoming more realistic prospects. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s latest statement suggests that Armenia is preparing to resume exports to Azerbaijan, potentially paving the way for more balanced trade between the two countries.

This development is important not simply because of the value of the goods that may initially cross the border, but because of what it represents. Since gaining independence, Azerbaijan and Armenia have never developed normal, direct and mutually beneficial trade relations. Their borders remained closed for decades, while the conflict prevented the emergence of ordinary economic ties. In recent years, however, limited economic interaction has started to appear, most notably through Azerbaijan’s fuel exports to Armenia. The emergence of Armenian exports to Azerbaijan would therefore represent another step toward establishing a genuine commercial relationship.

Trade can play a particularly important role in consolidating peace. It would be unrealistic to claim that trade alone can guarantee a lasting settlement, but economic interdependence can create powerful incentives for both sides to preserve stability. When businesses, consumers, transport operators and energy companies begin benefiting from cross-border economic activity, the cost of renewed confrontation becomes considerably higher. In this sense, trade can help transform peace from a political objective into an economic interest shared by both societies.

There is also a straightforward economic argument. Neighboring countries are often among each other’s most important trading partners because geographical proximity reduces transportation costs and facilitates supply chains. Azerbaijan’s non-oil exports, for example, are strongly connected with regional markets such as Russia, Trkiye and Georgia. Armenia could gradually become another important destination if political and logistical barriers continue to disappear. For Armenia, access to the Azerbaijani market would provide another nearby market for its producers. For Azerbaijan, Armenian goods could add another source of supply and create opportunities for companies operating in trade, logistics and distribution.

Yet the larger economic benefit of peace is likely to come from reduced geopolitical risk rather than trade alone. Both Azerbaijan and Armenia have spent substantial resources on defence and security because of the unresolved conflict. A durable peace would not eliminate the need for defence spending, but it could reduce the economic pressure associated with permanent confrontation and allow both governments to devote a greater share of resources to infrastructure, education, technology and social development. The economic dividend of peace could therefore be much larger than the initial value of bilateral trade.

Energy cooperation could become an even more important component of this process. During his recent visit to Nakhchivan, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev spoke about the possibility of electricity exports and indicated that regional countries could potentially benefit from such energy cooperation. Pashinyan’s latest comments about the possibility of cooperation with Azerbaijan in the electricity sector suggest that this idea is no longer merely a theoretical discussion. If technical and political conditions permit, electricity could become one of the first strategic sectors in which the two countries develop practical interdependence.

This possibility becomes more interesting when Armenia’s ambitions in artificial intelligence and digital infrastructure are considered. Armenia has been seeking to attract investment into AI infrastructure and data-centre projects, including initiatives involving US companies. Such facilities can require substantial and reliable electricity supplies. Armenia is already developing additional generation capacity, but meeting rapidly growing electricity demand will require significant investment over the coming years.

Nuclear power is an important part of Armenia’s electricity mix, but the country will also need to expand and diversify its energy capacity as electricity demand grows. This is particularly relevant as Armenia seeks to attract investment in energy-intensive industries and digital infrastructure, including AI-related projects.

For Azerbaijan, this could create an additional opportunity for regional energy cooperation. Azerbaijan has significant energy resources and is expanding its role as a reliable electricity and energy partner in the region. If bilateral relations continue to improve, electricity trade could become another area of practical cooperation, with Azerbaijan potentially supplying electricity to Armenia when commercially and technically feasible. Such cooperation would strengthen Azerbaijan’s role in the emerging regional economic architecture while creating a new source of energy security for Armenia.

The most important transformation, therefore, may not be measured in the first million dollars of bilateral trade. Its significance lies in the possibility of creating a cycle in which trade encourages trust, trust enables infrastructure cooperation, infrastructure creates economic interdependence, and interdependence makes peace more valuable for both sides. Azerbaijan enters this process from a position of considerable economic and energy strength, giving it an opportunity to contribute to regional connectivity while also benefiting from the opening of a new neighbouring market.

After more than thirty years of confrontation, the emergence of trade, energy cooperation and potentially wider economic links would mark a fundamental change in the South Caucasus. If the political momentum continues, Azerbaijan and Armenia could gradually move from being defined by the economic costs of conflict to being connected by the economic benefits of peace.