Category: Azer News

The global economy of the mid-2020s has been marked by persistent volatility, geopolitical fragmentation, and shifting trade corridors. Yet, against this turbulent backdrop, Azerbaijan’s macroeconomic indicators for the first half of 2026 paint a picture of remarkable domestic stability. Recent official data released by the State Customs Committee reveals a striking development: Azerbaijan’s foreign trade surplus has surged nearly sixfold year-on-year, reaching $7.979 billion. Parallel to this commercial windfall, the Central Bank of Azerbaijan (CBA) has expanded its foreign exchange reserves from $11.1 billion to an impressive $13.1 billion. Together, these figures underscore a deliberate, highly calculated strategy of monetary insulation that virtually guarantees the absolute stability of the Azerbaijani manat (AZN) at its pegged rate of 1.70 to the US dollar for the foreseeable future.

To appreciate the scale of this economic windfall, one must look at the mechanics of the trade balance. During the first six months of 2026, Azerbaijan’s total trade turnover hovered around $24.661 million-a marginal 1.1% increase compared to the same period last year. However, the internal dynamics of this turnover shifted dramatically. Exports jumped by 26.7% to $16.320 billion, propelled heavily by a nearly threefold increase in revenues from refined petroleum products and steady natural gas deliveries to European markets. Concurrently, imports contracted sharply by 27.6%, dropping to $8.341 billion. This simultaneous expansion of outbound shipments and contraction of inbound purchases widened the trade gap in Azerbaijan’s favor, generating the historic $7.979 billion surplus.

In a standard floating exchange rate framework, such a massive trade surplus would trigger a rapid appreciation of the local currency. As foreign buyers purchase manats to settle energy contracts, the demand for AZN would skyrocket. However, Azerbaijan operates under a de facto fixed exchange rate regime, anchoring the manat firmly at 1.70 per dollar. To maintain this peg and prevent the domestic currency from becoming overvalued-which would hurt the competitiveness of the non-oil export sector-the Central Bank of Azerbaijan must step in as a market stabilizer.

The CBA does this through currency purchase interventions. By actively buying excess US dollars flooding the domestic market from energy exporters, the central bank injects manats into the system, neutralizing upward pressure on the currency. The direct byproduct of this mechanism is the rapid accumulation of national reserves. The expansion of the CBA’s foreign exchange reserves by $2 billion in a relatively short window to a historic peak of $13.1 billion is tangible proof of this sterilization policy.

For the average citizen and the foreign investor alike, this reserve accumulation is far more than a dry accounting milestone; it is an impenetrable monetary shield. International financial benchmarks dictate that a developing nation’s foreign reserves should ideally cover at least three months of imports. With Azerbaijan’s monthly import bill averaging roughly $1.4 billion, the CBA’s $13.1 billion vault holds enough liquidity to cover over nine months of imports. This represents a safety cushion three times larger than the recommended international baseline. Even in the highly improbable event of a sudden, catastrophic collapse in oil prices, the CBA possesses the unilateral firepower to defend the peg for a prolonged period without risking depletion.

Furthermore, this financial fortress dampens any speculative tendencies within the local banking sector. During previous periods of global uncertainty, dollarization-where citizens and corporations convert assets to USD out of fear of devaluation-posed a threat to liquidity. Today, because the CBA’s defensive capacity is highly visible and backed by hard cash, public confidence in the manat remains exceptionally high.

Ultimately, Azerbaijan’s current economic policy reflects a prioritized trade-off. By utilizing its surging trade surplus to build a massive sovereign reserve buffer, Baku has chosen total exchange rate predictability over exchange rate flexibility. In an era where sudden currency devaluations can instantly destabilize emerging markets, the $13.1 billion fortress at the Central Bank guarantees that the manat will remain an island of absolute calm. For the remainder of 2026, the 1.70 peg is not merely a policy target; it is an unassailable financial reality.

Applications from the Russian technology holding VK and the national messenger Max are no longer available for download from the Google Play app store, AzerNEWS reports.

This was reported by VK, which stated that the restriction affects only new downloads. Previously installed applications will continue to operate normally and will not be subject to any functional limitations.

According to the company, Android users will still receive push notifications about new messages, events, and calls in the Max messenger and VK services. Existing users will be able to continue using the applications without interruption.

At the end of June, Apple also removed VK-related applications from the App Store. Earlier this week, the European Union included VK and the Max messenger on its sanctions list, which affected the availability of the company’s digital services on some international platforms.

VK representatives stated that they are working to maintain access to their services and provide users with alternative ways to install and update applications. The situation highlights the growing impact of international technology restrictions on the global availability of digital platforms.

The Max messenger, launched as a domestic communication platform, is part of Russia’s broader efforts to develop local alternatives to foreign digital services and strengthen technological independence.

The 2026 FIFA World Cup final between Spain and Argentina could be postponed due to air quality concerns caused by ongoing wildfires in Canada, AzerNEWS reports citing foreign media.

Smoke from the wildfires has spread to northern U.S. states, creating potentially hazardous air conditions. The polluted air is reportedly raising health concerns for players, coaching staff, and fans expected to attend the match.

Several outdoor events in Chicago have already been canceled due to the deteriorating air quality. The MLS regular-season match between Chicago Fire and Vancouver Whitecaps has also been postponed.

As forecasts suggest the smoke may not clear in the coming days, some experts believe the World Cup final, scheduled to take place in New York, could also be affected.

There is currently no official decision regarding a possible postponement of the decisive match.

However, FIFA has emergency protocols allowing changes to the tournament schedule if air pollution levels pose a health risk.

The World Cup final, hosted jointly by the United States, Canada, and Mexico, is scheduled to be played on July 19 at MetLife Stadium.

Iranian tanker docked at the strategic Kharg Island was hit on Friday by two American missiles. Bushehr Province Deputy Governor Ehsan Jahanian told the state agency IRNA that the vessel was empty at the time, AzerNEWS reports.

M/T Belma, the tanker in question sailing under the flag of Curacao, was previously targeted in order to prevent it from docking at this oil export terminal.

Jahanian also reported that the US military unleashed a new barrage across the coastal Bushehr province, home to a nuclear power plant.

Iranian tanker docked at the strategic Kharg Island was hit on Friday by two American missiles. Bushehr Province Deputy Governor Ehsan Jahanian told the state agency IRNA that the vessel was empty at the time, AzerNEWS reports.

M/T Belma, the tanker in question sailing under the flag of Curacao, was previously targeted in order to prevent it from docking at this oil export terminal.

Jahanian also reported that the US military unleashed a new barrage across the coastal Bushehr province, home to a nuclear power plant.

US Vice President JD Vance has claimed that convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein maintained connections to senior figures within both American and Israeli intelligence agencies, while acknowledging that there is no public evidence proving the exact nature of those relationships, AzerNEWS reports.

Speaking during a three-hour appearance on The Joe Rogan Experience, Vance said Epstein had links to “the highest levels of American intelligence” as well as “the highest levels of Israeli intelligence.”

“He clearly had connections to the upper, the highest levels, of American intelligence. He clearly had connections to the highest levels of Israeli intelligence,” Vance said.

Describing himself as “one of the O.G. Epstein conspiracy theorists,” Vance said he had explored numerous theories surrounding Epstein over the years.

When podcast host Joe Rogan referred to speculation that Epstein had ties to Israel’s Mossad intelligence agency, Vance replied, “Yeah, Mossad or CIA or some other deep state.”

Vance further speculated that Epstein’s alleged Israeli connections were primarily linked to what he described as “elements of the Israeli deep state that were left of center.”

“As much as I know, Prime Minister Netanyahu, not a particularly popular person in the United States of America right now, Epstein seemed to be connected to the elements of the Israeli deep state that were left of center,” he said, adding that Epstein had “much deeper connections to the Israeli left of center than right of center.”

The vice president also addressed criticism surrounding the Trump administration’s handling of documents related to the Epstein case, acknowledging that officials mishandled public communication on the issue.

“We did mishandle it, especially the communications of it,” Vance said. “I think that we should have just dropped everything at the very beginning. We should have just done it as quickly as possible.”

He denied there had been any deliberate cover-up, attributing the controversy to poor communication and what he described as exaggerated public expectations regarding the release of the Epstein files. Vance also criticized Epstein’s 2008 plea agreement, calling it the “original sin” of the investigation.

During the interview, Vance discussed other aspects of the Epstein case, including the financier’s relationship with billionaire Les Wexner and speculation surrounding his business dealings. He also rejected claims that US President Donald Trump had been blackmailed, describing such allegations as “crazy.”

U.S. President Donald Trump was reportedly displeased with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu after the latter publicly criticized the potential sale of F-35 fighter jets to Trkiye, AzerNEWS reports, citing Axios.

According to the information, Trump was angered by Netanyahu’s remarks during an interview with Fox News earlier this month, in which the Israeli leader voiced opposition to supplying F-35 aircraft to Trkiye. Sources cited by Axios said Trump believes the issue is not one in which Netanyahu should intervene.

Benjamin Netanyahu has previously argued that providing F-35 fighter jets to Trkiye could disrupt the balance of power in the Middle East. According to Axios, he also urged Trump during a phone conversation to refrain from approving the transfer of new U.S. weapons systems to Ankara.

Trkiye was removed from the F-35 program in 2019 after acquiring the Russian-made S-400 air defense missile system in 2017. Washington has maintained that no final decision has been made regarding a possible sale of F-35 aircraft to Trkiye.

Azerbaijan’s Mine Action Agency (ANAMA) has significantly strengthened its technical capabilities and expanded its workforce following changes to the agency’s legal status, Chairman of the Board of the Azerbaijan Mine Action Agency (ANAMA) Vugar Suleymanov said during a media briefing marking the agency’s 28th anniversary, AzerNEWS reports.

Suleymanov said that after ANAMA’s legal status was revised, the agency was tasked with reinforcing its material and technical resources and increasing its human capacity to address the scale of Azerbaijan’s mine contamination problem.

“We organized our activities in line with this task,” he said.

According to Suleymanov, ANAMA has since enhanced its technical base, procured new equipment and vehicles, and increased the number of personnel.

As an example of the new equipment, he highlighted two specialized X-ray devices donated by the People’s Republic of China.

“These are special-purpose X-ray systems that allow operators to determine what is behind closed spaces – such as inside doors, cabinets, or boxes – without having to open them,” Suleymanov said. He also added that the technology is expected to improve the safety and efficiency of mine clearance operations.

Another vessel has come under attack near the Strait of Hormuz amid escalating tensions between the United States and Iran, AzerNEWS reports, citing the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO).

The UKMTO said it received a report of an incident involving an unidentified tanker located about 19 kilometers east of Khasab, Oman. The vessel was struck by an unknown projectile, causing minor structural damage to its port side.

No crew members were injured in the incident, and there were no reports of environmental damage, the UKMTO said.

“All crew members are safe… No reports of any impact on the environment have been received,” the agency said in a statement.

As of Friday morning, only three commercial vessels had passed through the Strait of Hormuz over the previous 24 hours, marking the lowest daily transit level since May, according to information from the International Maritime Organization (IMO).

Shipping data showed that many vessels either stopped before entering the strategic waterway or changed their routes.

The IMO has also confirmed 56 shipping-related incidents connected to the regional conflict, resulting in the deaths of 17 seafarers.

The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow maritime passage between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, holding significant strategic importance as approximately 20% of global oil supplies and around 25% of liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports pass through it. Essentially, it serves as an energy artery for countries in Asia, Europe, and even the United States.

The strait separates Iran from Oman, and in some areas, the width of the shipping channel is only two miles on each side. Given its critical role in global energy supply chains, ensuring the safety and security of this vital waterway is paramount for international trade and economic stability.

Unfortunately, not every diplomatic initiative survives contact with the diplomacy that follows it. It sounds so eye-catching and laudable in a way; it kind of feels too good to be true. Among the more telling moments at the Shusha Global Media Forum this week was the question nobody expected to produce a significant answer. The “3+3” Format – three South Caucasus states plus Trkiye, Russia and Iran, conceived in the immediate aftermath of the 2020 war as a framework for regional self-governance, has gathered “dust on the shelf” of post-conflict ideas for the better part of four years, overtaken by bilateral deals, American brokerage and the sheer pace of events on the ground.

Azerbaijan’s own proposal, floated in late 2021 as a vehicle for regional countries to manage regional affairs without external referees and barely convened. When a journalist in Shusha this week asked President Ilham Aliyev whether it was still alive, the question itself carried the answer. “I think no one has returned to this topic for a long time,” Aliyev said, with the equanimity of a man who has moved on.

The South Caucasus has reached the point where it is in a period of multipolar competition; everyone from Washington to Beijing to Riyadh has a stake in its future, right when its own leaders are making the most important decisions for it. This is not chaos, although there are aspects of this as well. Instead, it is flux, calculated and quick, in a place that has been in the same unhappy state for thirty years.

We all know how that ice broke thanks to Baku and Yerevan’s reasoning. White House meeting between Trump, Aliyev, and Pashinyan was the trigger but not the cause of what is now unfolding. The cause was the accumulated exhaustion of all parties with a frozen conflict that was economically ruinous and strategically outdated.

Three-country problem?

Well, the South Caucasus is more than one story. It is three separate stories with a growing degree of complexity in their interactions, and the key to grasping the reality of today’s South Caucasus is in recognizing that the three trends are diverging, not coming together. Armenia is moving west, slowly but surely, and always under the shadow of Russian influence. Azerbaijan is moving in no particular direction, since it doesn’t have to: geography and infrastructure mean that it is of equal importance for Russia, Europe, China, Trkiye, and Central Asia. And Georgia is changing faster than it can adapt, perhaps at risk not of exclusion by force, but of marginalisation by design. Each trajectory carries its own specific risks. When these risks are viewed together, they point to the same conclusion: the current strategic advantage is time-sensitive.

Azerbaijan’s vision of what the region’s architecture should look like was stated with unusual candour by Aliyev at the Shusha Global Media Forum this week. Asked whether the long-dormant “3+3” format was still alive, he was characteristically blunt: “No, no. We initiated it as a post-conflict platform to achieve full settlement and the complete restoration of our sovereignty. At the time we initiated it, part of Garabagh was still under occupation.”

The format has since been overtaken by events, he argued, and any revival must look fundamentally different: a full six-sided, or for now, five-sided, given Georgia’s absence, mechanism with an agenda covering energy, transport and security across the entire region, not merely a bilateral Azerbaijani-Armenian issue dressed up in multilateral clothing. It is the implicit warning in the response that carries the punch here: “It should not become another Minsk Group.” That reference was pointed. The OSCE Minsk Group spent nearly three decades mediating the Garabagh conflict without producing a resolution; in Baku’s reading, the format became a mechanism for managing a conflict rather than ending one, and for keeping external powers in the room long after their presence served any useful purpose. The message to Moscow, which views the 3+3 format as an opportunity to reassert a convening role in a region where it is losing one, was unmistakable.

The window of opportunity

The South Caucasus’s new reality is the product of choices – by Aliyev, Pashinyan, and to a significant extent Trump, that could have gone differently and could still be reversed. The constitutional gap in Armenia, the Russian leverage instruments, and the Georgian political paralysis have been resolved. On top of that, the window created by simultaneous Russian and Iranian disruption to global trade routes will not stay open indefinitely as well.

What would squander the opportunity is familiar from every previous attempt at South Caucasus peace: outside interference that generates domestic political crises before the peace process can establish itself; impatient institutions in Brussels and Washington that dictate terms that the governments simply cannot fulfill without forfeiting the domestic support necessary for fulfillment; and, finally, time itself, which gives the spoilers, the Russian corporate structure, the lobbies of the diasporas, the opposition factions, a chance to organize against the process while it is too young to be consolidated.

The peace agreement has been initialled. The TRIPP corridor is being planned. The new order in the South Caucasus is not an idealized diplomatic ambition but a tangible phenomenon, manifested through the trucks full of oil traveling from Azerbaijan to Armenia for the first time in three decades, including bilateral diplomacy that is increasingly driven by the region’s own governments rather than outside powers. There is a saying in the history of this region that things happen very slowly and then very quickly. It seems that the latter has started. What remains to be seen is whether it ends.