On September 26, an event themed ‘Restoring Trust in a Fragmented World: The South Caucasus as a Pillar of Global Connectivity and Investment Stability’ was held as part of the 2nd Azerbaijan International Investment Forum in Baku, under the patronage of President of the Republic of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev.
President Ilham Aliyev attended the event.
The head of state answered questions from moderator Adebayo Ogunlesi.
Moderator: Good morning, everybody. I’m Adebayo Ogunlesi, Chairman and CEO of Global Infrastructure Partners, and it is my pleasure to have this fireside chat with His Excellency the President. Let me start by giving you a sense of what the President has accomplished over the last 20-some years that he has been President of Azerbaijan. It really has been a true, an extraordinary transformation. And, as you would expect, I consulted ChatGPT. I’m on the board of OpenAI, so I have to consult ChatGPT. It’s not Claude. And so, here’s what he’s done. GDP has increased tenfold, from $7 billion to $76 billion. GDP per capita has increased more than eightfold, from 900 to 7,500. Impressively, the poverty rate has dropped from 45% to 5%. SOFAZ assets have grown 90-fold, from $840 million to $75 billion. And in a meeting yesterday, the President gave our friend Israfil a challenge to increase SOFAZ’s assets to $100 billion, and I’m sure everybody in the room here-where is Israfil?-they are all eager to help you achieve that objective.
He has expanded the economy by increasing the size of the non-oil and gas economy by four and a half times, so that in 2025, the non-oil and gas economy accounted for 71% of GDP. At the same time, while oil production has been going down, gas production has been expanded from 5 billion cubic meters in 2003 to 50 billion in 2025. And, of course, Azerbaijan has now become a critical supplier of natural gas to Europe, to Trkiye, which obviously has been very, very important in the aftermath of the war in Ukraine.
I’m sure the President will tell you about some recent developments in the gas sector, with announcements with Exxon, TotalEnergies, bp, and ADNOC, which will further increase gas production.
Physical infrastructure in Azerbaijan has been transformed. Lots of spending on social programs, on defense, roads, electricity, water, rail, schools, hospitals. All of this has been accomplished at a time when he has actually reduced public debt as a percentage of GDP from 22% to 20%. I can name many countries-the U.S., France, the UK, Japan, China-who would love to have public debt as a percentage of GDP of 20%.
On the political front, he has restored Azerbaijan’s control over its internationally recognized territories, which, of course, culminated in the peace agreement that was signed at the White House in August of last year. Azerbaijan has maintained its strategic autonomy, strong relationships with the U.S., with Europe, and Trkiye, and continuing relationships with Russia and with China, and hosted COP29 in Baku in 2024.
So it’s small wonder that the people of Azerbaijan have rewarded the President by electing him five times, each time with an increasing majority. If I were an Azerbaijani, I would vote for him. So please join me in a round of applause for the President.
But, Mr. President, as they say, that was yesterday’s news. What my audience here is eager to hear is what your plans for the future are. So let’s turn to the future. Sitting in the room are people who manage some $30 trillion in assets. I think the President’s request is that only a small portion of that be channeled towards Azerbaijan to help stimulate further growth. I was talking to my friend George Walker, who’s sitting in front, who’s the CEO of Neuberger Berman, and he said he bought a large number of the 30-year bonds that SOCAR sold. So I think George asked that I ask if he would stay on for another 30 years, but I’m not sure that’s feasible.
Over the next decade, Mr. President, what is your vision for Azerbaijan, for economic growth, and what are the key drivers for that growth?
President Ilham Aliyev: First of all, thank you very much for such an introduction. I think you covered all the parameters of our economic performance, and not only that, but also the regional dimension. I am very grateful for that. What has been done so far was definitely the main prerequisite for future development. Because if not for what has been done, and for a stable economy and independent financial and economic system, today it would be difficult to talk about the future. So we need to build on that positive momentum. We need to build on the fact that many leading international companies from different sectors of the economy consider Azerbaijan a reliable partner. And, already having a good investment climate, we have accumulated more than $350 billion in investments over the last 20 years. Half of that is direct foreign investment.
So, building on all that, we need to be in line with the general trend of economic development and use our potential in sectors beyond oil and gas to achieve long-term and sustainable growth. As the main priorities, I would name several. One of them is renewable energy. We have enormous potential. Only in the Azerbaijani sector of the Caspian Sea, we have 157 gigawatts of power, plus onshore solar and wind farms already in operation. So our target is to reduce to a minimum the consumption of natural gas to generate power and to use that reserve for export. And renewables will be developed everywhere in Azerbaijan in the coming five years.
The second important driver of the economy is definitely logistics, transportation, and connectivity. We have worked on that for quite a long time, creating physical infrastructure, establishing a more understandable business climate for investors, and also working with our neighbors because we are landlocked. Without our neighbors, we cannot be a major transit country. So that could be another driver, especially taking into account today’s geopolitical situation, where some of the traditional supply chains are at certain risk.
So this is a great opportunity for local and foreign investment. Having extra capacity of electric power, definitely, we are looking in two directions. First, how to use it to the maximum degree domestically, with respect to AI data centers, and how to export it. We have transmission lines, but they are not sufficient. So now we are working on new transmission lines, expanding the existing ones and building new ones. So that could also be an important part of economic development for the future.
And maybe among those which have big potential is mining. Just several days ago, the State Program on Mining was adopted. It’s a very short-term program of four years, which will generate a lot of activity. So these are the main directions of our development. And, of course, we should not forget the elephant in the room: oil and gas, especially having in mind that this year many contracts were signed and more are to be signed today. So, oil and gas will continue to dominate our economy and generate the wealth which will be reinvested.
Moderator: That sounds like quite a vision, and lots of opportunities for people to invest in Azerbaijan. You mentioned the current geopolitical environment, and obviously Azerbaijan sits at the crossroads of Europe and Asia, on an increasingly important trade route. And you yourself have been one of the big advocates of Central Asian unity and prosperity growing together. How do you see Azerbaijan’s strategic role evolving as global trade and supply chains are reshaped?
President Ilham Aliyev: First of all, we had to do our homework. And that was to build physical infrastructure. So we largely invested in railroads, in seaports, in air cargo transportation, and highways. Sixty percent of our railroads are electrified. And this process continues. We have railroad connections with all the neighbors, and also inside the country. So that was an important part. In order to become a transit country, definitely we needed to have good relations with our neighbors and the neighbors of our neighbors. Otherwise, as a landlocked country, no matter how hard you try, you will not succeed. That also was done, and today relations with all the neighbors are very clear and, more importantly, predictable.
And also, we had to create such an environment and such an incentive that suppliers would choose Azerbaijan, and we did it even before this geopolitical change. Because five years ago, it was difficult to even imagine that the traditional supply chains would be disrupted. So we wanted to create such a physical and administrative environment so that suppliers would choose to use multimodal transportation through Azerbaijan. Because if you go through Azerbaijan, you also have to use ferryboats.
So today we see a growing demand for transportation through Azerbaijan, whether it’s East-West or North-South. We are sitting at these two important junctures. And, by the way, we are one of the very few countries that are active participants in both transportation corridors. We have seen rapid growth in transit cargo through Azerbaijan. This year it will reach 16 million tons. But our target is, by 2030, to reach 25 million tons, and maybe even more on both routes, as I said, East-West and South-North. For that, we are actively engaging with our neighbors. You mentioned Central Asia. Azerbaijan, since last November, became a full member of the Central Asian Consultative Council. This is actually an unprecedented event, because geographically we are situated in the Caucasus, but already politically and from an economic and transportation point of view, we are part of the broader Central Asian region. And also, definitely, the administration, digitalization of transportation, customs administration, very clear and understandable rules and regulations in Azerbaijan for investors-all that will strengthen our potential. If the geopolitical situation in our region changes and goes back to what it was five years ago, still we should be attractive for suppliers.
Moderator: That’s very exciting, and I think one of the goals you have set is to deepen Azerbaijan’s engagement with global markets. You mentioned some of the competitive advantages: renewables, your geographic location, and, obviously, the hydrocarbon sector. Perhaps you can expand a little bit on what you think the competitive advantages are, and why all of these ladies and gentlemen should bring big portions of that $30 trillion into Azerbaijan.
President Ilham Aliyev: Well, I think one of the most important factors, especially in today’s world, is political and economic stability, and this has continued in Azerbaijan for more than 30 years. We had difficult times since the beginning of our independence in the 1990s: the occupation by Armenia of our territory and ethnic cleansing against Azerbaijanis. We had 1 million refugees and internally displaced persons at the beginning of the 1990s. At that time, the population was 8 million. So it was actually a humanitarian catastrophe. We had a civil war, and the economy was in total chaos.
So all that is already in the past. So today, political stability and economic stability are important factors. Another factor is that our financial system is very strong, and, as you mentioned, we have a very low public debt, 20%. But this is together with internal debt. External debt, foreign debt, is 5.6 percent of GDP, and we can actually zero it in one day because our currency reserves exceed our foreign debt almost 20 times. Our currency has been stable since April 2017. The exchange rate of the currency against the dollar didn’t change. It was $1 to 1.7 manat in April 2017, and it is today, and it will continue because we have a good trade balance.
The investment contracts which actually led to the development of the oil and gas sector, signed 30 years ago, are still absolutely untouched. Not a single word was changed, and that was one of the factors that attracted investors. So already we have a very credible portfolio of being a very responsible partner. So even if we were not 100% satisfied with some parameters of the contract, we think that responsibility should prevail. I think one of the important factors, especially in today’s world, is security. Azerbaijan is one of the safest places in the world. The criminal situation is totally under control.
And also, I think it’s important to mention a good climate, nine climatic zones in a relatively small country, good cuisine, hospitable people, and also important events like today’s Formula One race, UFC traditional fights, and many others. So I can talk a lot about the advantages, but I don’t want to seem too nationalistic.
I think the audience will have time, if not yet, to walk around and explore more about Azerbaijan. And also, I think all these and many other factors will lead to more investments in human capital, infrastructure, AI, and other sectors of our economy. And the importance of these kinds of gatherings also is to have a country presentation in the country. Because if you go out and have some presentations outside, the audience is relatively limited, and also you come and you just say good things about your country. And when you have this gathering in Azerbaijan, everyone can make their own judgment. I think that-I hope that most of the judgments will be positive.
Moderator: That’s really excellent. So, give us some advice: What do you think are the two or three most attractive investment opportunities in Azerbaijan over the next decade?
President Ilham Aliyev: First, of course, though we want, and we do a lot, on diversification, it will still be oil and gas. And today, two important contracts are to be signed. One with Exxon on the development of unconventional oil and gas fields with huge potential. If exploration is successful, that could lead to another oil and gas boom in Azerbaijan.
And fortunately, now the main Euro-Atlantic trend on fossil fuels has changed, thanks to President Trump. And on gas, we again today will sign a contract on the development of the second stage of the Absheron Field with Total, which will increase gas production in Azerbaijan in three or four years by 5 billion cubic meters more. And contracts have been signed during this year’s Baku Energy Week. So, oil and gas will still be one of the most attractive sectors and, from the point of view of the volume of investment, the biggest segment. And this is for the long term.
Another potential, as I said, having in mind that not many countries in our region-and I mean a broader region-have spare energy capacity. Most of them are facing energy shortages. Most of them buy energy resources from outside, including from Azerbaijan. So this advantage, of course, can be used for digital development, data centers, AI development, and we are already in a very active phase of negotiations with the leading companies of the world. So this is, I would say, number two.
I already mentioned renewables, and when I say renewables, I don’t only mean generation; I mean transmission and storage. So we already have storage capacity of 250 megawatts, but it’s only the beginning. We want to become a very important supplier of electric energy, and along with oil, natural gas, oil products, petrochemicals, and fertilizers, which we export. And we are one of the few in this region which exports all of them. Export of electric energy, especially to the European premium market, will also strengthen energy security, connectivity, and interdependence.
And with respect to our domestic needs, all that I was just describing has a broader impact. With respect to domestic needs, of course, one of the priorities is food security, because we do not yet feel the complications of climate change. I go skiing every winter, and I see that the level of snow in our mountains stays the same. Maybe somewhere it is melting, but not in Azerbaijan. So we are not yet subject to the effects of climate change, but water scarcity and some other factors definitely dictate that we need to do more on food security. A state program was adopted this May to largely reduce dependence on imports. I don’t know to what degree agriculture will be of interest to these gatherings.
Moderator: Lots of people care.
President Ilham Aliyev: Yeah. But I think this is a huge potential, especially now when there are also some limitations due to different factors, due to droughts, due to a lack of diesel, due to other problems with the supply chain. We do not exclude the situation when some countries will be in danger with respect to food security. We want to avoid that situation. So this could also, I think, be attractive for local and foreign investors.
Moderator: So, Mr. President, being an infrastructure investor, and we have some of the leading infrastructure investors in the room-we have Connor Teskey from Brookfield, we have ADIA, we have Temasek-how can infrastructure investors, and imagine what you’ve done on the renewable side with Masdar and with ACWA Power, where else should infrastructure investors be looking for public-private partnerships to help grow the development of infrastructure in Azerbaijan?
President Ilham Aliyev: Well, actually, as far as domestic needs are concerned, I think everything, most of the things, have been done.
Moderator: Do you need us?
President Ilham Aliyev: For domestic purposes, maybe not, because we have one of the highest, maybe the highest, rates of gasification in the country. Ninety-six percent of the country is gasified. We have 100% coverage of the country with electricity and broadband internet, and we’re exporting railroads-almost done. Airports-we have nine international airports; the seaport is being expanded.
So basically, as far as domestic infrastructure is concerned, we are fine. What I think could be of interest is the infrastructure that serves multinational interests. And here comes, first of all, transportation, logistics, and physical infrastructure, and software infrastructure, because we can build a lot of bridges and piers and, you know, vessels, but if we do not properly address the current trends with respect to digitalization and customs administration, and make the process of handling cargo easier and more speedy, then we will lose. So I think this is one.
Another is electric transmission lines. This has huge potential because today, not only is Azerbaijan itself a source of energy for Europe, but less than two years ago we signed an agreement with Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan to build a subsea electric cable from Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan under the Caspian to connect Central Asia with Azerbaijan and then with Europe with electric energy. So that will need a lot of financing.
Another important project, which is already in the post-feasibility-study phase, is a Black Sea cable, which will again come from Azerbaijan to Georgia and then Romania. It’s a four-gigawatt electric cable, again heading towards the premium energy market. Energy storage-so all this is needed not only for us, but for broader international presence. So this, I think, could be the major areas of infrastructure concentration.
Moderator: Mr. President, you mentioned interest in digital infrastructure and data centers, and benefiting from the excess supply of low-cost energy, some of which is renewable, that Azerbaijan has. And I know one of your plans when you go to the G20 in December is to meet with the leadership of some of the major hyperscalers. Talk to us a little bit about your vision for Azerbaijan as a center for digital transformation and activity in the region?
President Ilham Aliyev: We work on several tracks. Of course, one is capacity building, and a lot is being done now on education. The Center for Cybersecurity, which has already been operating for a while, was just the first important step. Education is number one because without trained personnel, we would never be able to achieve our goals. And, of course, these practical advantages which we have, like extra capacity of cheap energy and our location-we are situated just between Europe and Asia. We have a fiber-optic cable going towards the west. By the end of this year, we will inaugurate one connecting Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan under the Caspian Sea. So this is also an advantage.
We definitely want to be in line with the general trends in the development of the global economy, and for that purpose, of course, we need to work actively with hyperscalers, with those institutions like yours and like those whose leaders I met yesterday, to look at Azerbaijan from the point of view of investments. And what I already mentioned about security, safety, a good investment climate, predictable tax regulations, and also an investment-friendly economy-all these can be prerequisites. So, if this is attractive enough, we will succeed. If not, then we will ask our partners to tell us what else should be done in order for them to come to Azerbaijan as long-term investors.
Moderator: So beyond capital, obviously your global partners can also help by bringing technology, expertise, and capabilities. You have a willing and enthralled audience. Tell them what they should be doing in terms of bringing technology and capabilities to Azerbaijan and to Baku in particular.
President Ilham Aliyev: First, open the offices in Baku.
Moderator: We discussed that yesterday indeed.
President Ilham Aliyev: We discussed this with our friend from Brookfield yesterday. I think, well, you know, technologies we can buy, and we are doing that. And today, having substantial financial resources, we can buy almost any technology. Of course, if it’s not classified.
Expertise, yes, it’s very important, and here we also have a good example from our experience in oil and gas, because when the first production-sharing agreement was signed in 1994, more than 90% of the employees in the energy companies of the West were expats. Now, probably, the percentage of expats is about 5%. So that was an enormous contribution to the country’s development and capacity building. Many Azerbaijani nationals now work on a global scale in different companies, and we are also glad and proud that our representatives are holding important positions.
So I think what will be very important will be training and capacity building, especially taking into account that the literacy level in Azerbaijan is close to 100% and a lot has been done with respect to education. As soon as I became President for the first time in 2003, we adopted an educational program to train our young people abroad, and since that time, thousands, maybe tens of thousands, of them have studied, and the absolute majority came back. So this is capacity building, which we cannot buy.
And, of course, with respect to expertise, yes, the best practices, the best experience of the leading companies will be very important for us in order to follow the right path and to create, in the sectors which we described, the same environment as we have managed to create in oil and gas.
So in this case, our economy will be more diversified. Though today it’s already, if you look at GDP, more than 70% in the non-oil sector. But if you look at our exports, you will see more than 90% of our exports are still oil and gas. We need to improve it, and we hope, with the help of our guests, those who would decide to work with us, we will achieve that.
Moderator: So, Mr. President, what message should the trillions of dollars that are gathered here take away about Azerbaijan and its future? What I’ve heard is that Azerbaijan is open for business. It’s an attractive place to invest. What else should they be thinking about?
President Ilham Aliyev: I think they should not believe the fake news media. And I think one of the advantages of this kind of event is that they can see everything with their own eyes. They can hear what people say, and not only from the business community, but these days they can ask anyone what they think about the country and how it develops. Is it on the right track or not? And make up their minds themselves.
No matter how we praise our country, how we say good things, every host country says good things about its country. It would be difficult to find any kind of investment forum where the president would come and say, ‘This is bad and this is bad.’ We say it between ourselves, but again, I think the best impression is the impression you feel yourself, you get yourself. We just need to create an environment. We just need to provide some room for that.
But I think if any objective observer, from any kind of background, any part of, you know, activity-not only business-looks at what the transition of Azerbaijan was from being part of the Soviet Union in 1991, with a zero market economy, with zero freedoms, with an absolutely devastated, you know, even at that time, oil and gas industry, and now, everyone can judge that, yes, this country is not a failed state. This country and its people are committed to their statehood.
You know, Azerbaijan was the first-not at that time a country, but the first place in the world-where oil was produced, and we have a memorial to the first oil derrick. It is situated not very far from here. It was 1846, even before Pennsylvania. If at that time Azerbaijan was independent, can you imagine what today would have been? If we could have preserved our independence in 1920, because in 1918, the first democratic republic in the Muslim world was established here, but it lasted only two years. Then our independence was taken from us, and we became again part of the big empire. So, if at that time we had been independent and could have been the owners of our resources, can you imagine what we would have been today?
So we were deprived of that. During the Second World War, Azerbaijan supplied more than 80 percent of the fuel to the Soviet army, and if not for that, the result of the Second World War would have been completely different. The Nazi Army-why was it going to climb the Caucasian mountains? Why? Just because they wanted to train themselves? No, they were coming to Baku to get Baku oil, and if they succeeded, then the Soviet army would be totally cut off from fuel supplies, and that would be the end of the war, with very, very bad consequences.
So all that was taken from us, and what did we get when we became independent in 1991? Oil industry in decay, gas production at zero. We were buying gas, energy shortages, civil war, Armenian aggression and occupation of our lands, which lasted 30 years until we liberated our lands by force, and all that was bringing Azerbaijan to the verge of collapse. So when we became independent in 1991, we were very close to being totally ruined. So we managed to stand up, and today we stand up firm.
I think the history of the country, at least its 20th-century history, is enough to understand that people in this country are capable. They can live independently, they can live with dignity, they can win wars and win wars in a short period of time. They can restore their territorial integrity. Probably the only case in the history of this century, and maybe the biggest part of the 20th century, and they are strongly committed to national interests. They are open to the world.
A lot of expats live and work in Azerbaijan, and I think that this is something which one cannot read in a book or in an article. One can only feel it when one comes and stays for some time. So I wish our guests will stay for some time in Baku and maybe come again. Definitely, we would like them to come back and to work with us, to be with us, and to be a part of our new journey.
Moderator: Mr. President, it has been a pleasure spending time with you. This is an extraordinary story. I think the context of the history that you put it into makes the achievements even that much more significant.
This seems to be the period of investment summits. Last week it was Toronto. I think next month it will be Germany. I think you have given every other country that has an investment summit a run for its money.
So congratulations, and we look forward to investing in Azerbaijan.
Thank you, Mr. President.