Iran-US nuclear talks in Geneva: Strait of Hormuz risks and Azerbaijan’s energy strategy

This Thursday, February 26, Iranian and US representatives are scheduled to hold another round of nuclear talks in Geneva. The talks come at a time of heightened military tensions in the Middle East, with US President Donald Trump warning that ‘limited strikes’ remain on the table if no agreement is reached.

Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that an ‘unprecedented agreement’ serving the interests of both sides is possible, and that Tehran is preparing to present a formal package of proposals. Against this backdrop, the US has deployed its largest military force in the region in decades, including aircraft carriers and fighter jets. Meanwhile, new protests in Iran have added pressure, making this meeting appear to many observers as a ‘last chance.’ Washington seeks to block Iran’s ability to acquire nuclear weapons, while Tehran demands recognition of its right to a ‘peaceful’ nuclear program in exchange for lifting economic sanctions.

Whenever tensions rise between Iran and the United States, one narrow waterway moves to the center of global attention – the Strait of Hormuz. Earlier this month, Tehran signaled how it might respond to an attack by temporarily closing sections of this strategic passage, which links the Gulf to open seas.

To assess the likelihood and implications of such a move, AzerNEWS spoke with Dr. Frank Musmar, a political analyst specializing in the Middle East, Turkiye, and the Caucasus. He emphasized the importance of distinguishing between immediate and long-term threats to inform strategic planning.

Dr. Musmar noted that the probability of Iran initiating a full, long-term closure of the Strait of Hormuz is low. This assessment, he argued, should reassure policymakers about regional stability despite frequent threats.

Q: Considering that around 20% of global oil supplies pass through the Strait of Hormuz, what impact would a closure have on global oil supply and prices?

A closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of global oil passes, would trigger an immediate shock to energy markets. Oil prices could surge to $120-$150 per barrel, with US gasoline prices potentially exceeding $3-$4 per gallon. This would fuel worldwide inflationary pressures.

A sustained disruption of 20 million barrels per day would cause a global supply crisis, as alternative pipelines can bypass only about 15% of that volume. Countries heavily reliant on Gulf energy, such as China, India, and Japan, would face severe shortages. Maritime insurers might suspend coverage or demand exorbitant premiums, forcing shipping companies to halt traffic or take longer, costlier routes.

Q: What lessons can past Strait of Hormuz crises teach us about today’s market risks?

Historical precedent is instructive. The strait was effectively closed or severely impacted during the 1973 oil crisis and the 1979 Iranian Revolution, both of which triggered massive price shocks.

More limited disruptions such as the 1980s ‘tanker war’ or modern drone incidents are more likely than a full closure. Yet even these smaller-scale actions create immediate volatility in oil futures, impacting global supply chains.

Mitigating factors exist: Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline can bypass the strait, though it handles only a fraction of Gulf exports. Strategic petroleum reserves in the US, China, and OECD countries, along with diversified supply chains, provide some buffer against short-term disruptions.

Q: From Azerbaijan’s standpoint as a regional energy producer, how could a disruption in the Strait of Hormuz affect its oil exports and energy strategy?

A disruption would significantly boost Azerbaijan’s energy strategy by driving up global oil prices and enhancing the value of its non-Persian Gulf export routes, particularly the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline.

Baku would likely face increased demand for Caspian oil and lucrative opportunities to expand exports to Europe and Asia. Azerbaijan’s diversified pipeline network, including Baku-Novorossiysk and Baku-Supsa, positions it as a reliable energy partner outside the Gulf.

Revenue gains from surging oil prices could accelerate Azerbaijan’s plans to expand pipeline capacity and strengthen its role in reducing Europe’s reliance on Gulf-dependent suppliers.

Q: Given that Azerbaijan shares a border with Iran, how might a war against Iran affect its energy security and regional stability?

A war against Iran would severely disrupt Azerbaijan’s energy security. It could threaten infrastructure, halt critical trans-border energy swaps (notably with Nakhchivan), and sever regional transit corridors.

The 765-km border puts Azerbaijani infrastructure at risk of spillover, requiring heightened security around pipelines through Georgia and Turkiye. The key gas swap agreement, under which Iran receives gas from Turkmenistan and delivers an equivalent amount to Nakhchivan, would likely collapse, forcing Azerbaijan to seek alternative supplies.

Joint energy projects in the Caspian Sea could also be halted. Most critically, Azerbaijan would face a ‘delicate balancing act’ between its strategic partnership with Israel , which often targets Iranian assets, and its need to maintain stability along its southern border.

National Art Museum holds lecture dedicated to Khojaly Tragedy [PHOTOS]

Azerbaijan National Art Museum has hosted a lecture titled “The Khojaly Genocide in Visual Arts” in commemoration of the 34th anniversary of the Khojaly tragedy, AzerNEWS reports.

The event opened with the performance of the national anthem, followed by a minute of silence in memory of the martyrs who sacrificed their lives for Azerbaijan’s freedom and territorial integrity.

The lecture, presented by Asad Guliyev, Head of the Museum’s Exhibition and Design Department and an art historian, focused on how the Khojaly genocide has been represented in Azerbaijani visual art. He discussed the various artistic approaches to the subject, stressing the significance of the museum’s extensive collection of paintings and graphic works, which serve as a vivid artistic chronicle of this historical tragedy.

Behram Sheydayev, a retired colonel and head of the Yasamal district branch of the Public Union of Disabled Veterans and Families of Martyrs of the Karabakh War, emphasized the importance of promoting the truth about Khojaly. He noted that preserving the memory of the victims is a moral duty for every citizen.

The lecture was well-received by attendees, who particularly appreciated how depictions of the Khojaly genocide in visual arts play a crucial role in shaping collective historical memory.

The tragic events unfolded on February 25-26, 1992, when Armenian armed forces, with direct support from the 366th regiment of the former USSR stationed in Khankandi in Azerbaijan’s Karabakh region, launched a brutal attack on Khojaly from multiple directions.

The result was devastating, with approximately 613 civilians, predominantly women and children, losing their lives in the massacre.

Around 1,000 individuals were left disabled, eight families were completely wiped out, 25 children were orphaned, and 130 children lost at least one parent.

Some 1,275 innocent people were taken captive, and the whereabouts of 150 individuals remain unknown to this day.

Armenia asks EU to deploy team to counter Russian disinformation ahead of elections

Armenia has formally requested assistance from the European Union to counter potential Russian interference ahead of its parliamentary elections scheduled for June, AzerNEWS reports via Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL).

In Wider Europe, RFE/RL’s newsletter covering the EU, NATO, and Eastern Europe, Europe editor Rikard Jozwiak wrote that Brussels is preparing to deploy a ‘hybrid rapid response team’ to help identify and counter Russian disinformation efforts during the election period.

Jozwiak cited a letter seen by RFE/RL in which Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan requested on February 13 that the EU dispatch such a team. According to the report, the EU is considering not only a temporary deployment but also ‘potentially’ establishing a more permanent civilian mission with a similar mandate in the future.

Modelled on the Moldova mission

RFE/RL noted that the EU previously sent a 20-person team to Moldova during its parliamentary elections last year.

‘Both Brussels and Chi?inau deemed the project a success and the European Union is now keen to replicate the effort in Armenia as the country faces crucial elections that Russia is expected to try to influence,’ Jozwiak wrote.

Ahead of Moldova’s September 2025 elections, the EU said it had provided Chi?inau with ‘targeted support’ to enhance cybersecurity and combat illegal financial flows, as well as foreign information manipulation and interference.

EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas confirmed in December 2025 that Armenia had requested ‘similar help to fight the malign influence, like [the EU] granted to Moldova.’

Earlier in December 2025, Armenia and the EU signed a new strategic agenda prioritising cooperation against hybrid threats.

Over the past year, Armenian officials have repeatedly accused Russia of waging a hybrid campaign against the country, an allegation Moscow has denied, describing it as ‘another round of aggressive language that causes bewilderment.’

Azerbaijan and Turkiye agree to expand scope of preferential trade agreement

An agreement has been reached to expand the scope of the Preferential Trade Agreement (PTA) signed between Azerbaijan and Turkiye.

As reported by AzerNEWS, Azerbaijan’s Minister of Economy, Mikayil Jabbarov, shared the update on his official X account following a meeting with Turkiye’s Minister of Trade, Ömer Bolat, held within the framework of the Georgia-Azerbaijan-Turkiye Business Forum.

Jabbarov noted that discussions focused on deepening economic partnership between the two friendly nations, ensuring sustainable growth in trade turnover and investments, improving the legal framework for business cooperation, and strengthening collaboration in energy, industrial production, transport, logistics, tourism, and other sectors.

‘Within the discussions, we reached an agreement on expanding the scope of the Preferential Trade Agreement signed between Azerbaijan and Turkiye,’ he stated.

The Preferential Trade Agreement between the Government of the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Government of the Republic of Turkiye was signed on February 25, 2020, to promote preferential trade between the two countries.

The agreement entered into force on March 1, 2021, allowing a number of products to be exported to Turkiye under preferential terms without the payment of import duties.

On March 1, 2024, a protocol introducing amendments to the agreement came into force in Turkey.

Speaking to local media during the 2nd Azerbaijan-Turkiye Investment Forum in Baku, Bolat said that technical teams from both countries are currently conducting impact analyses and assessments regarding a potential Free Trade Agreement.

‘Our official position is that, when the time is right, it will also be possible to sign a Free Trade Agreement between Turkiye and Azerbaijan,’ he emphasized.

According to Azerbaijan’s State Customs Committee, trade turnover between Azerbaijan and Turkiye amounted to $431.7 million in January this year. This represents a decrease of $51.6 million, or 10.7%, compared to the same period in 2025.

Exports from Azerbaijan to Turkiye totaled $268.2 million in January, down $39.9 million, or 13%, year-on-year.

Of this amount, $19.5 million consisted of crude oil and crude petroleum products obtained from bituminous minerals, with export volumes reaching 41,800 tons. Compared to January last year, exports of these products to Turkiye increased 4.6 times in value terms (up $15.3 million) and 4.8 times in volume (up 33,100 tons).

Non-oil exports to Turkiye amounted to $31.4 million during the reporting month, marking a decline of $5.7 million, or 15.3%, compared to January 2025. Non-oil exports to Turkiye accounted for 11.72% of Azerbaijan’s total non-oil exports, ranking Turkiye fourth among Azerbaijan’s top destinations for non-oil exports during the period.

Imports from Turkiye to Azerbaijan reached $163.6 million in January, down $11.6 million, or 6.6%, year-on-year.

Overall, trade turnover between Azerbaijan and Turkiye approached $6 billion last year, underscoring the strategic economic partnership between the two countries.

National Museum of Azerbaijani Literature pays tribute to Khojaly Tragedy victims [PHOTOS]

An academic session titled “Khojaly’s Unceasing Cry” has taken place at National Museum of Azerbaijani Literature, AzerNEWS reports. The event was timed to the 34th anniversary of the Khojaly tragedy.

The event began with a minute of silence in memory of the victims of the Khojaly massacre.

The session was opened by the museum’s director, Academician Rafael Huseynov, who spoke about the scale, devastating consequences, and the political and legal dimensions of the Khojaly tragedy committed in February 1992. He described the Khojaly genocide as one of the bloodiest chapters in the more than 200-year campaign of ethnic cleansing and genocide carried out by Armenian nationalists against the Azerbaijani people, emphasizing that it was a grave crime against humanity.

Academician Huseynov noted that the Khojaly genocide claimed the lives of 613 people, including 106 women, 63 children, and 70 elderly individuals. The particular brutality with which civilians were killed, he stressed, proves the calculated cruelty of the act. They were targeted and murdered simply because they were Azerbaijanis living in Khojaly, in Karabakh.

The museum director underlined that the tragedy received its first political and legal assessment at the initiative of National Leader Heydar Aliyev. On February 24, 1994, the Azerbaijani Parliament adopted the resolution “On the Day of the Khojaly Genocide.”

In his remarks, the academician also emphasized that raising international awareness of the Khojaly genocide has consistently held an important place in the foreign policy pursued by President Ilham Aliyev.

He further highlighted the significance of the international campaign ‘Justice for Khojaly!’, launched at the initiative of Leyla Aliyeva.

Academician Huseynov stressed that, under the leadership of the victorious Supreme Commander-in-Chief , President Ilham Aliyev, Azerbaijan restored its territorial integrity and full sovereignty as a result of the historic Victory, and that Khojaly, like other regions of Karabakh, has been liberated from occupation. The blood of the nation’s martyrs, he noted, has not gone unavenged.

During the academic session, presentations were delivered on the topics “The Reflection of Khojaly’s Reality in Poetry” and “The Realities of the Karabakh War in the Prose of Alisafa Azayev.”

Kazakhstan develops into regional digital hub

The Valley of Data Centers project is being implemented in Kazakhstan with the goal of creating the largest data center campus in Central Asia, featuring an energy capacity of up to 1 GW, AzerNEWS reports.

The project was officially launched in January 2026 in the city of Ekibastuz, located in the Pavlodar Region, and is currently in the active implementation phase.

The launch of the Valley of Data Centers is expected to establish a major regional hub for digital infrastructure and high-performance computing in Kazakhstan. The project aims to attract up to $30 billion in investments and create more than 500 highly qualified jobs in engineering, IT, and energy management.

The Government of Kazakhstan is providing comprehensive infrastructural and legal support for the initiative. Land plots with a total area of 1,400 hectares have already been allocated. A key component of the project is the development of a dedicated Greenfield zone designed to attract international technology partners. The initial capacity of this zone will reach up to 100 MW, with significant potential for further expansion.

In addition, the project benefits from Ekibastuz’s strong energy base and proximity to major power plants, which ensures stable electricity supply and competitive energy costs. The campus is also expected to integrate advanced energy-efficient technologies and explore the use of renewable energy sources to enhance sustainability and reduce its carbon footprint.

The progress of the project was reviewed at a government meeting chaired by Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov, where key milestones and further development plans were discussed.

Trkiye’s Foreign Ministry commemorates victims of the Khojaly Genocide

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Trkiye has shared a statement commemorating the victims of the Khojaly tragedy.

As reported by AzerNEWS, the statement was published on the ministry’s official X account.

‘We commemorate with respect and mercy the cherished memory of our Azerbaijani brothers who were killed in Khojaly on February 26, 1992. We always feel the pain of dear Azerbaijan in our hearts,’ the statement said.

Today marks the 34th anniversary of the events in Khojaly, which Azerbaijan describes as genocide committed by Armenian armed forces.

The Khojaly tragedy is considered one of the bloodiest episodes of Armenia’s occupation policy and campaign of violence against Azerbaijan.

On the night of February 25-26, 1992, Armenian armed forces launched an assault on Khojaly, which had been under blockade since October 1991, with its road and energy connections cut off. During the attack, mass atrocities were committed against Azerbaijani civilians.

The massacre was carried out with the assistance of the 366th Motor Rifle Regiment of the former USSR. As a result, 613 residents were killed, including 63 children, 106 women, and 70 elderly people. Another 487 people were injured, 1,275 were taken hostage and reportedly subjected to torture, and the fate of many remains unknown. Eight families were completely wiped out, 130 children lost one parent, and 25 children lost both parents.

Azerbaijani actress says law enforcement raids target Azerbaijani families in Russia’s Rostov-on-Don

In the Rostov-on-Don region of Russia, law enforcement forces reportedly conducted nighttime raids on apartments where Azerbaijani families reside, sparking alarm among relatives and prompting questions from authorities in Azerbaijan, local media say, AzerNEWS reports.

Actress Ruhiyya Yusifova told local Azerbaijani outlet that a group of uniformed officers entered the home of her uncle, Mardan Askerov, during the early hours. ‘They beat my uncle’s son for no reason. they took his mother, his pregnant wife and two children, and my uncle away. They destroyed the house and broke everything,’ she said.

According to Yusifova, officers then entered the home of her uncle’s eldest son, where force was allegedly used against his wife and children. Most of those taken to the police station were later released, but her uncle reportedly remains in custody, with relatives’ phones confiscated at the scene.

An official inquiry has been sent to the Azerbaijani Ministry of Foreign Affairs seeking clarification on the matter, local media reported.

Previous incidents against Azerbaijanis in Russia

Wider concerns about the treatment of Azerbaijanis and ethnic minorities in Russia first occurred back in June. In June 2025, a raid by Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) on homes belonging to Azerbaijani families in Yekaterinburg led to the deaths of two Azerbaijani brothers and the detention of several others.

That incident sparked diplomatic protests from Baku, with the Azerbaijani Ministry of Foreign Affairs demanding an investigation and justice for the victims. Azerbaijan later summoned the Russian chargé d’affaires to express strong disapproval.

Azerbaijani lawmakers and officials described the Yekaterinburg operation as extremely brutal and inconsistent with legal norms, warning that such actions risk damaging bilateral relations.

Trump Hotel to become Australia’s tallest skyscraper

The Trump Organization, owned by the family of former US President Donald Trump, has unveiled its first major project in Australia. The company announced plans to develop the Trump International Hotel on the Gold Coast in partnership with Altus Property Group, AzerNEWS reports.

The ambitious project will see the construction of a 91-storey skyscraper in Surfers Paradise, featuring a 285-room luxury hotel under the Trump brand. In addition, the development will include 272 high-end residential apartments, a three-storey podium with a private beach club, and over 3,400 square meters of commercial, retail, and restaurant space, designed to revitalize the central part of the city.

Eric Trump, executive vice president of the Trump Organization, called the project a significant milestone. ‘Trump International Hotel and The Tower is our first official project in Australia, reflecting our ongoing commitment to delivering world-class luxury experiences in the most desirable locations,’ he said. ‘This project embodies the Trump brand’s dedication to quality, sophistication, and unmatched service, and we are thrilled to bring this vision to the vibrant Gold Coast community.’

Once completed, the skyscraper, with a planned height of approximately 335 meters, is expected to become the tallest building in Australia, surpassing existing records and reshaping the city skyline.

Urban development experts note that the project could boost tourism and international investment in the Gold Coast, while also generating thousands of construction and hospitality jobs. Some analysts suggest that the tower’s luxury positioning may attract high-net-worth international buyers, making it a potential landmark for both the Australian skyline and the global luxury real estate market.

Diplomatic meeting in Almaty focuses on deepening Azerbaijan-Kazakhstan cooperation

A meeting was held in Almaty to discuss the expansion of cooperation between Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan.

As reported by AzerNEWS, the information was published on the official Facebook page of the Almaty office of Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

On February 24, Deputy Head of the Almaty Representative Office of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Kazakhstan, Rashid Yerishov, met with Vusal Aliyev, Head of the Almaty Representative Office of the Embassy of the Republic of Azerbaijan.

Yerishov congratulated the Azerbaijani diplomat on assuming his new post and wished him success in his future work. During the meeting, the parties exchanged information about upcoming events and discussed prospects for cooperation. Both sides reaffirmed their mutual interest in further strengthening and expanding partnership in bilateral and multilateral formats.