How Azerbaijan’s post-war leverage meets Armenia’s economic reality [ANALYSIS]

At a time when peace negotiations between Azerbaijan and Armenia are gaining momentum, recent signals of economic cooperation have drawn attention. Armenia’s economy minister announced that the two sides have already exchanged lists of goods that could be exported to one another. This development, though modest, reflects a new reality emerging after decades of hostility.

The history of conflict between these two South Caucasus states stretches back before their independence in 1991. Beginning in 1988, irredentist claims from Armenia triggered a war that culminated in the First Karabakh War, which ended in 1994. As a result, roughly 20 percent of Azerbaijan’s territory was occupied. The consequences were devastating: more than a million refugees and internally displaced persons, destroyed towns and villages, and the collapse of local industry and agriculture.

It is worth noting that the war brought suffering not only to Azerbaijan but to the entire South Caucasus region. For example, around 30,000 people from both sides lost their lives, and tens of thousands were wounded. The war also stunted the development of regional transit routes, limiting economic growth across the South Caucasus.

The long conflict inflicted severe damage on Armenia itself. Its economy weakened, and migration soared. Over the past three decades, a significant portion of Armenia’s population left the country, contributing to its status as one of the poorest states in the region.

The 44-day war in 2020 marked a turning point. Azerbaijan regained its territories in line with international law, and subsequent localized anti-terror operations restored full sovereignty. Although some political forces in Armenia attempted to revive a revanchist agenda, the country’s deep social and economic crisis undermined their efforts. Azerbaijan, with its strong military and stable economy, emerged in a position to push forward the peace process.

Yet peace cannot be built overnight. The trauma of more than 30 years of war will not simply vanish. What can help, however, is economic cooperation. Integration offers a practical path to reducing tensions and preventing renewed conflict. In recent months, small but meaningful steps have been taken. Azerbaijan has begun exporting fuel to Armenia. While the volume is limited, the symbolism is powerful: a small move for Azerbaijan, but a significant step for peace. Additionally, reports suggest that Azerbaijani aircraft have been using Armenian airspace, another sign of growing trust.

The preparation of export lists is a logical next step. Expanding trade ties will strengthen mutual confidence and reinforce the peace process. From a logistical perspective, cooperation with a neighboring state is more cost-effective than relying solely on distant markets. Azerbaijan, for instance, has a well-developed fruit and vegetable sector, with Russia as its primary market. Diversifying exports is a strategic goal, and Armenia could become an additional destination. Conversely, Armenia’s mountainous terrain makes livestock farming more prominent, and animal products could find a market in Azerbaijan.

The list of goods that could be exported is already extensive. However, the real issue is not simply about the exchange of products. The South Caucasus is a small but strategically vital region. It connects Russia to the north, Iran to the south, and Turkiye and Europe to the west. Stability here would transform the region into a dynamic transit hub, accelerating economic and social development.

Peace talks between Azerbaijan and Armenia have not yet produced a final agreement, but the steps toward economic cooperation are encouraging. Historical enmity and the scars of war cannot be erased instantly, yet economic interdependence can lay the foundation for lasting peace. The fact that both sides are now engaging not only at the diplomatic table but also in practical trade discussions suggests a genuine shift. If this process continues, the South Caucasus may enter a new era defined not by war but by cooperation.

Globally, states are dismantling barbed-wire borders and replacing them with flows of goods, services, and people. In such a context, maintaining mined fields and trenches along borders is neither sustainable nor profitable. The hope is that Armenia will demonstrate political will and seriousness in its commitments, ensuring that peace is not just discussed but achieved.

British Embassy in Baku reaffirms support for Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity

The British Embassy Baku has issued a statement in response to numerous enquiries regarding this week’s parliamentary hearing in the UK House of Commons, reaffirming its support for Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity, AzerNEWS reports via the embassy.

‘We have received a number of enquiries regarding this week’s parliamentary hearing in the House of Commons. We understand there is significant interest in this matter, and we want to be clear about how the UK system works,’ the statement said.

The Embassy emphasized that it represents the government and communicates its foreign policy positions, but does not speak on behalf of the UK Parliament, which functions as a separate and independent branch of the country’s constitutional system.

‘Parliament operates independently of the Government, and its hearings, debates, and inquiries reflect the views of individual Members of Parliament or parliamentary committees, not the policy of His Majesty’s Government,’ the statement noted.

The diplomatic mission added that it would not be appropriate for the Embassy to comment on the content or conduct of parliamentary proceedings, stressing that all related enquiries should be directed to the UK Parliament through its official website.

At the same time, the Embassy reaffirmed that the UK Government’s position on the South Caucasus remains clear and unchanged.

‘We recognise Azerbaijan’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and we support the ongoing normalisation of relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia as the path to a lasting and peaceful settlement,’ the statement reads.

Azerbaijan establishes Digital Development Council – decree

The Digital Development Council of the Republic of Azerbaijan has been established, AzerNEWS reports.

President of the Republic of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev signed the relevant decree.

According to the decree, the following composition of the council should be approved:

Chairman of the council

First Vice President of Azerbaijan

Members of the council:

Assistant to the President of Azerbaijan – Head of the Department of Economic Issues and Innovative Development Policy

Assistant to the President of Azerbaijan – Head of the Department of Economic Policy and Industrial Issues

Assistant to the President of Azerbaijan on Socio-Economic Issues

Minister of Digital Development and Transport of the Republic of Azerbaijan

Minister of Science and Education of the Republic of Azerbaijan

Minister of Justice of Azerbaijan

Minister of Finance of Azerbaijan

Minister of Economy of Azerbaijan

Chairman of the Central Bank of Azerbaijan

Executive Director of the State Oil Fund of Azerbaijan.

In order to organize the activities of the council, the secretariat of the council shall be established, and the implementation of the Secretariat function shall be entrusted to the Ministry of Digital Development and Transport of Azerbaijan.

The council may involve local and foreign experts, specialists, international organizations, scientific institutions, and organizations in order to perform the duties stipulated in Part 5 of this decree, as well as establish working groups in separate areas consisting of representatives of relevant state bodies (institutions) and other interested parties.

In the field of digital development, the council must:

– ensure control over the implementation of measures envisaged in state programs and coordination of policies between state bodies (institutions);

– Exercise control over ensuring the compliance of projects implemented by state bodies (institutions) with existing strategic goals in this area;

– Take measures to improve regulatory legal acts, taking into account the proposals of state bodies (institutions) and recommendations of international organizations.

– Report on the activities of the council to the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan once a year.

Azerbaijani student released from ICE custody after mayor Mamdani’s appeal to Trump [VIDEO]

An Azerbaijani student detained by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the United States has been released following a meeting between New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani and U.S. President Donald Trump, AzerNEWS reports via The City.

According to the publication, the issue was raised during a meeting at the White House, where the mayor asked the president to release a Columbia University student who had been detained by ICE agents in his dormitory on the morning of February 26. Mamdani said that the president gave an order for her release.

Azerbaijani national Elmina Agayeva, an undergraduate student studying neurology and political science, later confirmed her release on Instagram. She wrote that ICE released her shortly before 4 a.m., and that she returned by taxi to the Morningside Heights campus.

‘I’m fine, I’m fine. I’m still in shock from what happened.,’ she wrote on her Instagram story.

According to the city administration, Mamdani also handed Trump the names of four other migrant students whom the administration reportedly intends to deport over criticism of Israel, and asked that deportation proceedings be halted. It remains unclear how the president responded to that appeal.

Agayeva’s detention early Thursday sparked unrest on the Columbia campus. The university’s security service allowed officers from the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) into the dormitory without a warrant, prompting spontaneous protests by faculty members and students.

Columbia’s acting president, Claire Shipman, stated that the agents did not properly identify themselves and allegedly claimed they were investigating a missing person case in order to gain entry.

A DHS spokesperson denied the allegation, saying: ‘The investigators identified themselves verbally, and their IDs were clearly visible around their necks.’

No further comment was issued by DHS following Agayeva’s release.

Mamdani’s spokesman, Joe Calvello, said Trump called him shortly after the mayor left the White House and indicated that the detained student would be released in the morning. The identities of the other students and whether they remain in custody were not disclosed.

The City reported that one of the other detainees is Palestinian activist and Columbia graduate Mahmoud Khalil. Two others reportedly did not study at Columbia and were detained during campus protests in 2024.

SOCAR named among Moody’s ‘rising stars’ as investment-grade status strengthens

The State Oil Company of Azerbaijan Republic (SOCAR) has been included in the list of six ‘rising stars’ of the global oil and gas sector in 2025, after securing an investment-grade credit rating from Moody’s Investors Service, AzerNEWS reports.

According to the agency’s latest report, six oil and gas companies achieved investment-grade status this year, while one company was downgraded to speculative grade and classified as a ‘fallen angel.’

Moody’s noted that SOCAR’s rating stands at Baa3 with a stable outlook. The upgrade followed the improvement of Azerbaijan’s sovereign rating to Baa3, reflecting stronger macroeconomic and fiscal fundamentals at the national level.

Among other companies highlighted in the report, TechnipFMC plc saw its rating upgraded to Baa3 with a positive outlook in January 2025 and further improved to Baa2 in September. The agency cited a reduced debt burden, simplification of the capital structure and increased free cash flow as key drivers behind the upgrade.

Expand Energy Corporation (Baa3, stable) also received an upgrade, reflecting a significant reduction in debt and a commitment to a more conservative financial policy.

Moody’s upgraded the ratings of DT Midstream (Baa3, stable) and Vallourec (Baa3, stable) on the back of business expansion and continuous improvement in credit metrics.

Meanwhile, EnLink Midstream LLC saw its rating upgraded following its acquisition by ONEOK Inc. (Baa2, stable).

Azerbaijan assigns demining responsibility to Ministry of Emergency Situations – decree

The Ministry of Emergency Situations will participate in demining operations together with relevant state bodies (institutions), AzerNEWS reports.

This is reflected in the decree signed by President Ilham Aliyev on amendments to certain decrees and orders of the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan in connection with the implementation of the Law of the Republic of Azerbaijan ‘On Demining.’

According to the decree, amendments have also been made to the ‘Charter of the Management of the State Historical and Architectural Reserve ‘Icheri Sheher”.

Thus, in accordance with the Law of the Republic of Azerbaijan ‘On the Protection of Historical and Cultural Monuments’, the Administration of the State Historical and Architectural Reserve ‘Icheri Sheher’ is obliged to authorize demining operations in areas where immovable historical and cultural monuments are located, if they are discovered during demining operations in the reserve.

SOCAR wins European Commission approval for Italian takeover

Brussels is prepared to embrace new actors in Europe’s energy market as the European Commission has given the green light for Azerbaijan’s state energy giant SOCAR to acquire Italiana Petroli, one of Italy’s largest integrated downstream energy platforms. The approval covers a 99.82% stake in the company, in a deal first signed in September 2025 but only recently cleared by EU regulators as having no competitive concerns.

The acquisition, expected to be completed by early 2026, is a departure from SOCAR’s traditional role as a crude producer and exporter. For years, Azerbaijan’s economic strategy in energy resembled that of many resource exporters: extract hydrocarbons and sell them to Europe with limited participation in refining, distribution or retail. That model left the most lucrative parts of the value chain in the hands of Western companies.

Italiana Petroli operates two refineries with a combined processing capacity of around 10 million tonnes per year, a nationwide network of over 4,500 fuel stations, and extensive logistics infrastructure. That means SOCAR will step into refining and retail, where profit margins are traditionally higher than upstream crude sales, and embed itself more deeply in the European energy economy.

Italy has established itself as a pivotal consumer of Azerbaijani energy, consistently ranking among the largest buyers of oil and gas exported from Baku. The Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP), a central component of the Southern Gas Corridor, has played a crucial role in facilitating the flow of Azerbaijani gas into Italy and beyond.

In its engagements with Azerbaijan, Italian officials have reiterated the critical importance of supply security, making it clear that any transaction would hinge on guarantees of fuel supply, an essential condition underscored during negotiations in the previous autumn.

In political terms, this also underlines Azerbaijan’s emergence as more than a supplier of raw materials. The deal reinforces Baku’s status as a strategic partner in European energy security, a mantle once held almost exclusively by Norway or North African exporters. With Russia’s gas role in Europe lowering and LNG markets fluctuating, new supply relationships are a welcome diversification for Brussels.

European Commission approval did not find competition issues because SOCAR’s combined assets do not dominate Italy’s downstream market. But the strategic implications are broader: it allows an Azerbaijani state company to own and operate critical energy infrastructure inside the European Union, a rare instance of direct state-level foreign ownership in a tightly regulated sector.

In opening the transaction to scrutiny under EU merger rules, Brussels insisted on transparency but raised no barriers, suggesting that SOCAR’s presence is not seen as a threat to market competition. Italian domestic debates, however, have focused on jobs and environmental stewardship: lawmakers have questioned how the transition will maintain refinery employment and comply with Italy’s climate commitments, concerns reflected in parliamentary hearings earlier this year.

From SOCAR’s perspective, the Italian acquisition is more than a business expansion. It builds on the company’s earlier experience abroad, notably in Georgia, where it modernised gas distribution and retail operations, but at a much larger scale. It sends a clear message that Baku is positioning itself as an integrated energy player capable of managing extraction, refining and distribution across borders, a vertical leap up the value chain.

For Italy, the numbers tell a story of precarious reliance. In recent months, natural gas has hummed behind more than 60% of the nation’s power generation, leaving the country structurally exposed to the slightest tremor in global supply. Against this backdrop of fragility, Azerbaijan’s state energy giant, SOCAR, isn’t just signing a contract; it is planting a flag.

By acquiring a network that stretches from the oil field to the neighborhood petrol station, SOCAR has secured a foothold deep within the European energy machinery. It is a move that transforms a distant supplier into a local landlord.

There is a distinct scent of “geopolitical realism” hanging over the deal. In an era where pipelines are viewed as levers of influence, Brussels has signaled a quiet “yes” to a non-EU, state-owned behemoth snapping up vital downstream assets.

It is a decision born of necessity. As Europe pivots away from its traditional Atlantic anchors, it is embracing a messy, pragmatic diversification. The deal underscores a shifting map of power, where the EU is increasingly looking East to secure its lights-on future, even if it means handing the keys to players outside the bloc.

If SOCAR can make this work, balancing the books while satisfying Rome’s green mandates, it may well have drafted the blueprint for how energy-rich nations buy their way into the heart of the global market. For now, the continent watches to see if this partnership is a bridge to stability or just another layer of dependency.

Roya Aliyeva shines in her first solo concert at National Art Museum [PHOTOS]

Roya Aliyeva, laureate of national and international competitions, has been held her first solo concert in the Italian Hall of the Azerbaijan National Art Museum, AzerNEWS reports.

The performance featured a repertoire of classical and retro pieces.

Born on February 25, 2005, in Baku, Roya Aliyeva began her musical journey at the Azerbaijan National Conservatory, where she studied at the affiliated Art Gymnasium.

During her school years, she participated in numerous concert programs, excelling in both violin and piano. She served as the first violinist in the Gymnasium’s Chamber Orchestra and was an active member of the vocal and choral ensembles.

Röya has earned top prizes, including Grand Prix and first-place awards, at prestigious national and international competitions in Azerbaijan, Turkiye, Russia, the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Italy, Spain, and Finland. Her performances have also graced official and cultural events hosted by foreign embassies in Azerbaijan.

Since 2025, she has been studying vocal arts under Farid Aliyev at the vocal music school of Fidan Hajiyeva. That same year, at the initiative of Fidan Hajiyeva, Röya appeared as Telli in Uzeyir Hajibayli’s operetta “The Cloth Peddler” during the 2nd International Opera Festival, earning acclaim for her performance.

Currently, Roya Aliyeva is a fourth-year student at the Baku Music Academy, majoring in instrumental performance (violin).

Alongside her studies, she teaches violin at Fidan Hajiyeva’s vocal music school in both Azerbaijani and English.