Category: Business Daily

Kenya will buy a stake in the planned 650,000-barrel-a-day oil refinery fronted by Africa’s richest industrialist, Aliko Dangote.

President William Ruto said the country will invest in the multibillion-shilling project through the National Infrastructure Fund, a State-backed investment vehicle created to mobilise long-term financing for major infrastructure projects.

The refinery could cost up to $20 billion (Sh2.58 trillion), an outlay that could see Kenya take a minority stake in the plant.

Mr Dangote recently said he prefers Kenya as the site for the mega refinery oil that will serve the Eastern Africa region, seemingly walking back on his previous push to build it in Tanzania.

Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu lashed at his Kenyan counterpart for announcing that Dangote’s refinery would be built in Tanga without consulting her.

‘We have an infrastructure project for the development of an East African refinery. Dangote tells me that this project will cost anywhere between $16.0 billion and $20.0 billion. Kenya will invest through the National Infrastructure Fund. We do not want to be held hostage any more by the Strait of Hormuz,’ President Ruto said.

Dangote Group is currently undertaking a feasibility study to determine which location among the ports of Mombasa, Lamu and Tanga would be best positioned to host the East African refinery.

A refinery is used to process and purify raw materials such as crude oil into usable products like petrol, diesel, kerosene and other industrial fuels.

For the raw materials, Dangote is focused on the oil discoveries in Uganda, which are expected to be exported through a pipeline to Tanzania. Kenya is also on course to start commercially producing oil in Turkana County.

For the East African refinery to get off the ground, Mr Dangote said, he would need Ruto to offer land, some East African finance and, most importantly, protection from what he called the dumping of cheap fuel from the likes of Russia or India.

East Africa currently imports all of ?its refined petroleum products, mainly from the Middle East, leaving the region vulnerable to the supply disruptions and price spikes that have been seen ?during the US-Israeli war on Iran.

Kenya, and many other African countries – including oil-producing nations – have to pay higher prices for petroleum products because the final cost includes refinery margins charged by foreign processors.

However, Dangote wants to change this, starting with his home country, Nigeria, a major crude oil producer that for years imported most of its refined petroleum products.

‘The ball is in the hands of President Ruto,’ he said, in reference to the Kenya refinery plan. ‘Whatever President Ruto says is what I’ll do.’

Dangote, who built his industrial empire through cement, has been expanding his footprint in Kenya through the acquisition of a tour company and restaurant chain Java House.

Alterra Capital, a private equity firm with wealthy backers including Mr Dangote, entered the East African tourism market last year through the full acquisition of Pollman’s Tours and Safaris Limited (Pollman’s). Alterra is said to have paid Sh4 billion for the acquisition.

Earlier in January, Alterra and another PE fund, Phatisa, signed an agreement in March to fully acquire restaurant chain Java House for an undisclosed amount from emerging-market investor Actis. The acquisition marked Dangote’s entry into the Kenyan market.

Talk of a new massive oil refinery in Africa follows the long-awaited completion of Dangote’s own $20 billion (about Sh2.6 trillion) refinery in Lagos, Nigeria’s coastal commercial capital.

It comes as the fallout from the war in Iran highlights the significance of local refining capacity.

‘I’m leaning more towards Mombasa because Mombasa has a much larger, deeper port.’ He compared Kenya’s port to Tanga, the proposed Tanzanian site for the refinery to process oil from Uganda and the open market. Dangote estimated that it would cost $15 billion to $17 billion to build.

‘Kenyans consume more. It’s a bigger economy,’ he said, adding that crude oil for the refinery could be transported by ship and need not be located near a pipeline that will carry oil nearly 1,500 kilometres from Ugandan oilfields to the Tanzanian coast at Tanga.

Dangote and Dr Ruto seem to have struck a chord, with the Nigerian featuring among the prominent individuals present at the Kenyan President’s inauguration ceremony in late 2022.

The visit signalled that Dangote could soon expand his business empire into Kenya, particularly in the areas of cement and fertiliser, which have been of interest to President Ruto’s administration.

Mr Dangote had previously tried to invest in Kenya, but in 2017 pushed back plans to set up his Dangote Cement plant in the country to 2021.

The company, which received a licence to prospect for limestone in Kitui County, was planning to set up two cement factories, one in Nairobi and another in Mombasa.

Mr Dangote already has cement factories in Ethiopia and Tanzania. The 2.5 million tonnes-per-year plant in Ethiopia was commissioned in 2015 and remains among the largest cement factories in the country.

In Tanzania, Dangote Cement operates a three-million-tonnes-per-year cement plant in Mtwara, commissioned in December 2015 and considered the largest cement factory in the country.

The Nigerian tycoon also has cement plants in Zambia with a production capacity of 1.5 million tonnes annually, Cameroon (1.5 million tonnes) and Congo Brazzaville (1.5 million tonnes). Dangote Cement now has a total production capacity of about 48.6 million metric tonnes annually across Africa.

According to Forbes, Aliko Dangote remains Africa’s richest man with an estimated net worth of about $28.5 billion, driven largely by his interests in cement, sugar and oil refining.

Dangote told Financial Times in an interview that for the East African refinery to get off the ground, he would need Ruto to offer land, some East African financing and, most importantly, protection from what he called the dumping of cheap fuel from countries such as Russia or India.

‘There is no refinery in the world that can survive without that protection,’ he said. ‘If we have an agreement, we can start this year.’

Kenya has overtaken Nigeria in the list of countries with the fastest growing companies in Africa in the Financial Times ranking, cementing it as one of the continent’s dynamic business hubs.

South Africa topped the list.

The Financial Times Africa’s Fastest-Growing Companies 2026 ranking, now in its fifth year, shows that Kenya has leapfrogged Nigeria into second place in terms of the number of companies represented.

South African companies consolidated their dominance, notching up no fewer than 51 of the 130 fastest-growing businesses. Kenya had 17 top-ranked companies, Nigeria (16), Mauritius (12) and Tunisia, which made a first-time appearance in the top 5, had 6.

Last year, Nigeria had 28.

In Kenya, several big businesses, including Naivas and Kenya Airways, have joined the usual roster of fintechs and start-ups.

The ranking tracks revenue growth over the 2021-2024 period.

The list includes relatively young firms such as General Printers 2021 Limited, M-Kopa, Kofisi Hospitality Group and The Avenue Group as well as established ones such as KCB Group, Co-operative Bank of Kenya, Kenya Airways (KQ), Kenya Power, Naivas, Quick Mart and Carbacid Investment.

The ranking, compiled with research company Statista, is based on compound annual growth in revenues (CAGR), measuring how quickly firms have expanded their top line over the review period.

Firms that made it to the list had a growth rate ranging from 9.27 percent (Roff Industries) to 311.17 percent to Thndr Technology Holding for Financial Investments from Egypt.

Kenya’s representation on the list across sectors such as financial technology, retail, manufacturing and clean energy, signals diversification beyond the traditional dominance of banking and agriculture.

The publication explains that to be included in the list, a company must have revenue of at least $100,000 (Sh12.92 million) generated in 2021 and $1.5 million (Sh193.8 million) in 2024, with the growth in the topline being organic. In addition, the firm must be an independent company (not a subsidiary or branch office of any kind) and headquartered in an African country.

General Printers 2021 Limited was ranked as the fastest growing company in Kenya and 13th on the continent, with a CAGR of ?118.49 percent in the four years through 2024. It was followed by Turaco Microfinance (72.01 percent), M-Kopa (43.01 percent), KQ (38.98 percent) and Carbacid (31.6 percent).

The presence of mid-sized and established firms points to a corporate landscape where growth is no longer confined to start-ups. Companies are increasingly scaling into larger enterprises, supported by regional expansion and improved access to capital.

Kenya’s rise to second place marks a shift in the continental pecking order, reflecting the growing depth and resilience of its private sector at a time when peers such as Nigeria face macroeconomic headwinds.

Also featured in the list of top 10 fastest growing firms in Kenya were Fourth Generation Capital Group with a CAGR of 31.6 percent, Kofisi (27.25 percent), Greenlight Planet (26.28 percent), KCB (22.89 percent) and Quick Mart (22.07 percent).

Companies such as M-Kopa, Kofisi, Greenlight Planet (the seller of Sun King products), and Quick Mart point to the range of business models driving expansion – from asset-financing platforms and electric mobility solutions to modern retail chains tapping into changing consumer habits.

Mic Global Risks (20.24 percent), Impax Business Solutions (19.87 percent) Kenya Power (17.05 percent), Naivas (16.32 percent), Co-op Bank (15.74 percent), Avenue Group (15.74 percent and Craft Silicon (10.29 percent) closed the list of Kenyan firms that made it to the list.

Kenya’s strong showing in the FT ranking also highlights the continued rise of Kenya’s technology ecosystem, with Nairobi maintaining its position as a regional innovation hub. Fintech and software firms remain among the fastest-scaling businesses, supported by high mobile penetration, digital payments infrastructure and growing investor interest in scalable solutions.

Nigeria’s marginal drop in representation reflects the strain of currency volatility, high inflation and investor caution, which have slowed corporate expansion despite the country’s large market size.

South Africa continued to dominate in the ranking, highlighting the advantages of deeper capital markets, stronger corporate structures and a larger pool of established firms.

The Kenya Revenue Authority (KRA) could gain sweeping powers to freeze a taxpayer’s bank accounts or assets even where the disputed tax assessment is under appeal, should Parliament approve the Finance Bill 2026 in its current form.

The Finance Bill 2026, which Treasury has tabled before the National Assembly, seeks to amend the Tax Procedures Act by deleting a clause that currently shields taxpayers involved in disputes with the KRA from being issued with agency notices once they have formally appealed the taxman’s decision.

An agency notice is a directive issued by the taxman under Section 42 of the Tax Procedures Act, compelling a third party, such as a bank or employer, to recover unpaid taxes from a defaulter’s account and remit them to KRA.

The proposed amendment is likely to rekindle long-running disputes between taxpayers and KRA over the taxman’s use of agency notices to freeze bank accounts before disputes are fully determined by courts and the Tax Appeals Tribunal.

‘Section 42 of the Tax Procedures Act is amended in subsection (14), by deleting paragraph (e),’ reads part of the Finance Bill 2026.

Paragraph (e) bars KRA’s Commissioner from issuing agency notices if the taxpayer has appealed against an assessment. KRA issues a tax assessment, or liability, in case of a dispute, inviting the taxpayer either to accept or reject it.

Even where the taxpayer rejects the assessment, KRA still considers the debt due and can proceed to issue agency notices to banks or other income streams linked to the taxpayer.

Tax experts reckon that should the National Assembly approve the deletion, it would mean that whether or not a taxpayer appeals a tax assessment, KRA would still be free to issue an agency notice.

This is the fifth time the National Treasury has attempted to introduce this amendment. The first time, it came with a rider requiring taxpayers to first pay 50 percent of the assessed tax before appealing. The threshold was later reduced to 20 percent before the riders were eventually dropped altogether.

‘If the previous attempts were rejected, why does it keep coming back?’ Robert Waruiru, a tax partner at Igeria and Ngugi Advocates, asked.

The High Court recently dealt a blow to aggressive debt recovery methods used by KRA, blocking the agency from directly raiding a taxpayer’s bank accounts to recover dues, citing violations of due process.

The court nullified agency notices issued to NCBA Bank Kenya and Stanbic Bank Kenya, which had been directed to remit funds held in accounts belonging to Katahira and Engineers International Limited.

Mr Waruiru speculates that Kenya might be borrowing from positions adopted in Uganda and Tanzania. In Uganda, a taxpayer pays an agreed amount with the Commissioner, while in Tanzania the tax authority withholds a third of the assessed tax.

There are fears that this provision could be abused, especially if KRA fails to expeditiously refund money collected from taxpayers who later win their appeals.

‘For businesspeople, the issue is that you are pulling cash out of my business, so I have to borrow to get cash. Why?’ wondered Waruiru.

Tanzanian conglomerate MeTL Group is planning a Sh6.5 billion ($50 million) soft drinks plant in Mombasa, setting up a rare regional challenge to Coca-Cola and Pepsi in Kenya’s highly concentrated beverages market.

Construction of the multi-billion shilling plant is expected to start within the next year, and marks the company’s first major investment in Kenya, as Tanzanian investors flock to the neighbouring country in expansion bids.

It will produce MeTL’s signature beverages, including Mo Cola, Mo Xtra and Mo Malto, which have gained popularity in Tanzania with cut-price drinks that have challenged established market leader Coca-Cola.

Mo Cola is named after Mohammed Dewji, the chief executive of MeTL, who Forbes ranked as East Africa’s richest person with a net worth of $2.1 billion (Sh271 billion).

Like in Tanzania, Mr Dewji hopes to undercut Coca-Cola prices in the quest for market share.

He will follow in the footsteps of Softa Bottling Company, the only Kenyan firm that took global giant Coca-Cola head-on and almost succeeded. Softa was started in 1997 by business tycoon Peter Kuguru.

‘I’m setting up a plant in Uganda, and I have land in Mombasa now, and I’m looking into setting up a carbonated soft drink plant,’ Mr Dewji said in an interview with the Business Daily on Wednesday.

‘We are right now at the drawing table, but we think that it is very possible that within 12 months, we may be able to break ground,’ added the tycoon who was in Nairobi to attend the Africa Forward Summit.

More than 30 African government leaders, as well as heads of multilateral financial institutions and business executives from across Africa and France, attended the Nairobi summit.

Mr Dewji owns Mohammed Enterprises Tanzania Limited (MeTL) Group, one of Tanzania’s largest conglomerates, serving the needs of Tanzania’s largely poor population with everything from sugar and spaghetti to fuel and pens.

The investment adds to a wave of big-ticket investments by Tanzanian tycoons in Kenya over the past five years, underlining the growing influence of regional capital in East Africa’s largest economy.

Having reportedly overtaken Coca-Cola sales in Tanzania within a decade of launch, MeTL’s entry into Kenya’s soft drinks market is expected to intensify competition in a sector long dominated by multinational brands.

In Tanzania, MeTL’s beverages have carved out market share, partly by positioning themselves as more affordable alternatives in a price-sensitive market.

Its signature drink, Mo Cola, would retail at about Sh15 in Kenya for the 300 ml bottle, against the industry average of Sh40, giving it a competitive edge which has helped it grow its market share in Tanzania fast.

Mr Dewji said the company intends to pursue a similar strategy in Kenya, targeting low-income consumers who remain underserved by mainstream beverage brands.

However, analysts say challenging Coca-Cola’s dominance in Kenya will require deep distribution networks, sustained marketing investment and regulatory fairness in a market where several smaller brands have previously struggled to survive.

Some lower-cost brands that once sought to penetrate the Kenyan market, including Softa, eventually collapsed under intense competition from larger players.

‘In Kenya, I think what is needed is a beverage product that focuses on poor consumers. Most of the brands available do not carter for that consumer group. But also, fair trade practices will help a newcomer survive,’ argued Stephen Mutoro, the head of the Consumers Federation of Kenya, a lobby.

Currently, Coca-Cola’s closest rival in Kenya is Kevian Kenya, the maker of Pick and Peel, with about 4.8 percent market share, followed by Excel Chemicals (2.3 percent), Highlands (1.6 percent), Del Monte (1.4 percent), and Suntory (0.48 percent). The rest share the remaining 19.5 percent.

Mr Dewji said his company was leaning towards a complete greenfield entry into to Kenya, but is also considering the possibility of buying out a player or merging with another one.

‘We cannot afford to ignore Kenya because it is the largest economy in our region. Yes, Kenya is more advanced, more competitive, but if you’re taking a long-term tenure, then it is definitely a country that you cannot ignore,’ he said.

Outside the fast-moving consumer goods industry, Mr Dewji is also eyeing the Kenyan energy and hospitality industries as the company’s next expansion frontier, as the sectors record sustained growth.

In energy, Mr Dewji is considering investing in power production as an independent power producer, as well as in transmission, following the liberalisation of the energy sector by the government.

He is also looking to construct hotels in Kenya, but has yet to settle on a location. This follows President William Ruto’s announcement during the Africa-Forward Summit that the government is leasing out land on which investors can construct hotels.

The planned expansion would make Mr Dewji one of several Tanzanian tycoons to make major investments in Kenya in recent years, highlighting Nairobi’s increased attractiveness to regional investors.

Among the latest deals was the acquisition of Bamburi Cement by Tanzania’s Amsons Group, owned by businessman Edha Abdallah Munif, while energy investors Ally Edha Awadh and Rostam Azizi have also expanded their liquefied petroleum gas operations into Kenya.

The Treasury is seeking to impose a 16 percent value-added tax (VAT) on Kenya’s 42 payment platforms, such as Pesapal, Kenswitch, Airtel Money and M-Pesa, which could trigger an increase in user fees for money transfer services.

A Treasury official said that fees earned by the owners of platforms would attract VAT, arguing that the tax will not apply to consumers’ mobile money transfer services and other money transfer services.

‘The person who supplies ICT to enable payments, including paybills or tills, is the one subject to VAT,’ Albert Mwenda, the director-general of budget at the Treasury, told the Business Daily.

‘Persons making payments would be out of the scope for VAT as they are not supplying any services.’

But the payment service providers look set to transfer the burden to consumers in the form of higher money transfer fees.

Safaricom has previously opposed a tax increase on mobile phone-based transfers, saying that it would likely mostly hurt the poor, most of whom do not have bank accounts and rely on mobile transfer services such as M-Pesa.

VAT, however, is deemed a consumption tax, payable by the end user, as revenues earned by payment service providers (PSPs) are generated from user fees.

M-Pesa, which Safaricom pioneered in 2007, now has around 37.91 million users in Kenya, handling billions of shillings in daily transfer volumes-a low-hanging fruit with the capacity to generate outsized profits.

Its double-digit growth in the year to March made the Kenyan unit of Safaricom the first to cross the Sh100 billion mark in earnings, underlining its cash-generation capacity.

Tax experts have argued against the proposal, seeing it as detrimental to the growth of digital payments and expect providers like Safaricom, Airtel and Pesapal to resist the amendment.

Michael Mburugu, a partner at PKF Kenya tax advisory service division, expects Safaricom to lobby hard against the proposal, noting that the levying of VAT on payment service providers will largely translate into higher user charges.

‘If you look at the financial services that are proposed to basically move from VAT-exempt to taxable status, you will note that they touch on money transfers and M-Pesa services involve money transfers,’ he said.

‘As to whether there will be any lobbying against it that can be expected, especially given the velocity and number of transactions being done nowadays on M-Pesa. You can imagine the impact of a VAT introduction at the rate of 16 percent on money transfer services.’

VAT charges are widely passed on to consumers, as they are seen as an end-user charge, implying that mobile-money wallet operators like Safaricom and Airtel would be unlikely to absorb the costs.

The Treasury clarified that M-Pesa was licensed by the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) as a pay service provider (PSP), rendering charges on transfers subject to VAT under current proposals.

Some M-Pesa service charges like Fuliza and M-Shwari would, however, remain VAT-exempt as they involve partnerships between the operator and commercial banks.

‘It depends on what you are considering. M-Pesa is licensed by CBK as a PSP, but there are financial services that they partner with banks to provide. So, it’s [the application of VAT] all dependent on the service,’ Mr Mwenda said.

The proposal in the Finance Bill is seen as biased towards traditional banking institutions and a discouragement for investments in fintech solutions.

Automated teller machine (ATM) transactions, telegraphic money transfer services, foreign exchange transactions, cheque handling and loan underwriting are all deemed financial services and thereby exempt from VAT.

The issuance of securities for money, provision of guarantees and the issue, transfer and receipt of dealings with bonds or stocks are also exempt from VAT.

A senior tax advisor at corporate law firm Bowmans Law, David King’ori, warned that the application of VAT on money transfers via platforms like M-Pesa could amount to double taxation.

‘M-Pesa user charges are already expensive and this would only be a step in the wrong direction. This could ultimately sideline some users from using formal financial services,’ he said.

M-Pesa charges Sh7 for transfers between Sh101 and Sh500 and a maximum Sh108 for transfers above Sh50,000, while low-value transactions below Sh100 are zero-rated.

The proposal to apply VAT on money transfer platforms follows a High Court ruling that saw judges bar the Kenya Revenue Authority (KRA) from collecting tax from PSPs, including Pesapal and Kenswitch.

The High Court suit pitted Limited and the Commissioner of Domestic Taxes, with the judge ruling that the services of receiving, transferring and processing payments on behalf of third parties or merchants were exempt from VAT.

The VAT Act currently exempts financial services from VAT, including money transfer services and the acceptance of over-the-counter payments of household bills.

Kenya has 42 PSPs, including Kenya Airports Parking Services (KAPS), Craft Silicon Limited and Cellulant Kenya Limited.

M-Pesa payment volumes rose by 25.1 percent in the year to March 2026, hitting 46.4 billion unique transactions in the period from 37.1 billion transactions previously.

The value of the 46.4 billion combined transactions, meanwhile, jumped 8.9 percent to hit Sh41.7 trillion from Sh38.3 trillion previously.

Safaricom was able to charge 42.2 percent of the transactions or 19.6 billion deals, helping it earn a record Sh182.7 billion for the period as M-Pesa revenues, a rise of 13.4 percent from Sh161.1 billion in the previous period to March 2025.

M-Pesa revenues made up 44.2 percent of Safaricom’s earnings for the year ended March 2026.

The number of monthly active M-Pesa customers in Kenya rose by 13.3 percent to 37.91 million from 33.46 million, while the average number of chargeable transactions per customer jumped to 38.6 from 37.3.

US President Donald Trump is set to travel to Beijing for a high-stakes meeting with China’s President Xi Jinping on May 14-15, 2026.

The summit, which is officially termed as a bilateral diplomatic engagement is also viewed as something closer to an emergency maintenance check on the global system itself. Not because either side expects a historic breakthrough, but because the modern world has become so economically intertwined.

On May 7, 2026, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met a bipartisan delegation of US senators led by Steve Daines in Beijing. The first such congressional visit since President Trump returned to office. Wang spoke optimistically about stabilising relations and implementing understandings reached by both leaders.

Diplomatically, this matters. Not because anyone suddenly believes the world’s two largest powers have discovered political soulmates in each other, but because both sides are increasingly aware that permanent instability is expensive.

Even superpowers eventually look at the bill and start asking who ordered all this tension in the first place. In the current geopolitical landscape, optimism has become so rare that when two superpowers merely agree to keep talking, we hold our breathe in anticipation.

Yet beneath the ceremony lies a deeper reality. In this week’s publication of The Economist, in its cover story, the argument is that this summit may expose less a strategic partnership than a ‘dysfunctional duo’-two powers bound together by economic necessity while simultaneously pulling apart politically.

Meanwhile, The Times has already described the upcoming visit as potentially little more than political theatre: ceremonial handshakes, symbolic soybean deals, flattering communiqués, then everybody boarding separate planes with the assumption that the structural problems stayed behind in the conference room.

This reveals one of the defining features of modern geopolitics.

The world no longer expects permanent solutions from Beijing and Washington. It merely hopes they can manage to meet, compromise and ensure globally we are more prosperous.

The relationship between China and the United States now functions less like a traditional bilateral partnership or rivalry and more like a form of global infrastructure. It quietly underpins trade routes, manufacturing networks, technology standards and capital flows.

For much of the world, particularly across the Global South, the outcome of China-US engagement is not abstract diplomacy. It is fuel prices, debt costs, food inflation, currency stability, infrastructure financing and trade flows. Africa sits at the centre of this transmission system.

The Xi-Trump meeting is therefore not simply about trade disputes, technology restrictions, or geopolitical signaling in isolation. It is a systemic signal event: a moment that reshapes expectations across multiple layers of the global economy.

Three broad outcomes can be expected. If the meeting produces even limited stabilisation, such as clearer communication or a temporary easing of trade tensions, the effects are quickly felt: supply chains become more predictable, commodity markets stabilise, and investment flows into Africa and other developing regions become steadier, manageable. In today’s geopolitical climate, manageability is a rare form of reassurance.

If it produces only partial understanding or symbolic engagement without substantive alignment, the system remains tense but contained. Markets adapt, but uncertainty persists as a baseline condition.

If tensions between China and the US become worse, especially over technology, trade tariffs, or military issues in Asia, the effects spread quickly across the global economy.

Companies begin moving factories and supply chains away from countries or routes seen as politically risky. Investors also become more cautious and avoid putting money into developing economies, including many African countries. This can make it more expensive for these countries to borrow money and can increase inflation, meaning everyday goods become more costly.

One of the fastest ways these tensions affect the world is through oil and energy prices. Historically, when major powers clash politically, oil markets become unstable, especially if there is also conflict in the Middle East. For many African countries that import fuel, higher oil prices immediately raise transport and electricity costs, increase food prices, and put pressure on government budgets.

Also, China’s role in Africa cannot be understood in isolation from its strategic competition with the United States. If China-U.S. relations stabilise, China’s engagement in Africa tends to follow more predictable long-term patterns, particularly in infrastructure, industrial zones, and trade financing.

If tensions escalate, Chinese global capital allocation often becomes more cautious and strategically selective.

U.S. engagement with Africa has become increasingly shaped by its strategic competition with China. Instead of focusing on large infrastructure projects, Washington now focuses on areas such as digital technology, critical minerals, security cooperation, and supply chain protection.

This reflects a more selective and strategic approach, where Africa is often viewed as part of a wider geopolitical contest rather than a priority on its own.

The upcoming President Xi Jinping- President Donald Trump meeting in Beijing is more than a diplomatic photo-op between two powerful leaders shaking hands like relatives trying very hard not to discuss politics at dinner. It is a reflection of a global order increasingly held together by economic interdependence under tension.

For Africa, this is no longer distant geopolitics discussed in conference halls; it is felt in inflation, trade opportunities and the price of everyday life. Yet Africa is also becoming more strategically flexible, engaging multiple powers without fully depending on any single one.

In that sense, the real significance of the Beijing Summit is not simply what Xi and Trump say behind closed doors, but whether the meeting lowers the temperature of the global system enough for everyone else to breathe, trade, invest, and plan without feeling like the world economy is one angry press conference away from another panic attack.

Many multinational employers operating in Kenya rely on global HR policies for good reason. These frameworks are designed to promote consistency, reinforce shared values, and support a common corporate culture across markets. On paper, they do exactly that.

The difficulty tends to arise in practice, particularly when issues of discipline or termination are involved. It is often only at this point that organisations are surprised to learn that a decision which complies fully with global standards can still be challenged and overturned under Kenyan law. When that happens, the cost in litigation, reputational exposure, and operational disruption can be substantial.

The fundamental issue is one that many global organisations overlook. In Kenya, employment is mainly regulated by law. The Employment Act and the Labour Relations Act establish minimum protections that internal policies cannot override, regardless of how widely those policies are applied elsewhere.

When disputes reach the courts, the question is not limited to whether an employer followed its own internal processes, but whether those processes met the requirements of Kenyan law.

This gap shows up most clearly in discipline and dismissal. Global HR frameworks often focus on efficiency, centralised escalation steps and decision-making at a regional or group level.

Those things matter. But Kenyan law approaches the process differently. Under the Employment Act, an employee must be clearly informed of the allegations against them, given a genuine opportunity to respond, and heard before any decision is made.

These are not just formalities; they are legal rights. An employer may feel it has done everything right under its internal policies, only to find that, in the eyes of the law, the process simply was not fair enough.

The challenge is that this misalignment is rarely obvious until a dispute escalates. In many cases, it only comes into focus once at that stage.

Local HR teams may be acting entirely in good faith, applying global guidance as intended, without realising that the framework does not fully align with Kenyan legal requirements.

By the time a matter reaches litigation, where claims such as unfair dismissal, reinstatement, or compensation are at stake, these gaps become significantly more difficult to manage.

Another complication is how HR policies are treated. Multinational organisations often assume their policies apply automatically. Kenyan courts don’t. They look at how the policy was introduced and whether it forms part of the employee’s contract.

This can create real uncertainty. Employees may see certain policy provisions as rights they can rely on, while employers may treat the same provisions as guidelines only.

When that line is blurred, the risk of dispute increases. The problem is made worse by frequent updates to global policies. Changes driven by regulatory or reputational pressures at head office are not always reviewed against Kenyan law before rollout.

As a result, local teams can find themselves applying frameworks that do not fully fit the local legal landscape, with the risk only becoming clear when a specific case brings it to light.

The answer is not to abandon global policies, but to be more thoughtful about how they are applied locally.

Looking at global frameworks through a Kenyan legal lens before rolling them out is a practical way to manage risk.

Where Kenyan law requires additional steps or protections, those need to be built in clearly. Employment contracts should also be clear on how policies apply and which rules take priority, so there is less room for confusion. Equally important, managers and HR teams need to understand not just what the policies say, but how Kenyan courts are likely to view them in practice.

From a risk and communications perspective, getting this alignment right early matters. Organisations that adapt global frameworks upfront are better positioned to manage disputes, and, in many cases, avoid them altogether.

In Kenya’s employment landscape, statutory protections take precedence over internal processes. For general counsel and senior leaders, the critical question is not whether a decision meets global standards, but whether it will stand up under Kenyan law. Getting that balance right early can prevent a manageable issue from becoming a costly and disruptive dispute.

Proactive alignment between global governance and local law is, at its core, a litigation risk management strategy. Organisations that do this work upfront are better placed to defend employment decisions when challenged, and in many cases to avoid disputes altogether.

For general counsel and senior leaders at multinationals operating in Kenya, the critical question when any employment decision is made is not whether it meets global standards, but whether it will withstand scrutiny under Kenyan law. Getting that answer right before a dispute arises is considerably less costly than finding it out in court.

Across most coffee shops in Nairobi, a cup of espresso usually costs between Sh300 and Sh600. But at a few speciality establishments, the experience is in a different league altogether.

At Cafe Amka in the city’s CBD, for instance, you could be looking at Sh2,200 for a small jar containing two cups. A high-end V60 pour-over costs around Sh550, while premium brews made with carefully selected whole or freshly ground beans range from Sh900 to Sh2,200.

According to Café Amka co-founder Wangui Ndegwa, these prices reflect the rise of Kenya’s speciality coffee culture, which is slowly emerging.

‘Unfortunately, most Kenyans don’t drink their best coffee, despite our country being one of the world’s top coffee producers,’ she tells us.

She adds: ‘Most of our finest beans are exported, packaged differently, and then sold at prices that many people cannot afford. As a result, many of us end up consuming low-quality coffee products like the sachets sold for Sh10 in shops and supermarkets.’

From the data she has gathered, only about 11 percent of Kenyans consume premium coffee, with just three percent of that group being urban, working class individuals.

Since opening Café Amka in 2022, Wangui says she has noticed a glaring gap in Kenya’s coffee scene and has decided to try to create the kind of coffee culture she experienced abroad.

“When I came back to Kenya from Asia in 2018, there were lots of coffee shops, but I struggled to find really good coffee. We don’t have a coffee culture in the true sense. We drink coffee for the caffeine kick. But coffee should be experienced in the same way as wine or whisky,’ she says.

She explains that the best coffees aren’t bitter; they’re layered and should be drunk at a temperature between 60 and 65 degrees celsius.

Depending on the roast, your nose should be able to pick up notes of dark chocolate, bright florals or juicy fruit from a well-made cup. She says that a slightly roasted bean brings out the best and most flavours.

“A good cup of coffee doesn’t need sugar because that alters the flavours of the drink. It should be flavourful, not bitter. Depending on how the beans are roasted, you should easily be able to identify the different flavours.’

Wangui’s knowledge deepened during her academic research. For her thesis, she spent several months in Ethiopia studying processing methods and immersing herself in a culture where coffee is not just a habit, but a ritual.

“In Ethiopia, coffee is more than just a drink. It’s a lifestyle. They consume nearly 50 percent of their own coffee,’ she says.

She later moved to China, where she founded an African coffee-themed café, before eventually returning home to Kenya. There, a few friends who had witnessed her passion for years finally encouraged her to open her own establishment.

Serious investment

Building Café Amka required serious investment. Among the equipment she purchased was the Sanremo Café Racer, a high-performance commercial espresso machine costing around Sh1.2 million.

She describes her coffees as ‘farm to table’ and personally visits farms to select the beans, curating what goes into each cup. She uses techniques such as carbonic maceration and anaerobic fermentation to coax more complexity and depth from the bean than conventional processing ever could.

‘It’s this experience that keeps people coming back. Even though we serve other cuisines, we’ve become known for our coffee more than anything else.’

‘A good cup of coffee doesn’t need sugar,’ she says, recalling how she often stops customers from reaching for the sugar sachets on instinct. “If you don’t understand the process behind the coffee, you miss the whole journey.”

Although the trend seems to be growing, aided by more coffee shops setting up and focusing on offering speciality coffee experiences, Wangui admits that Kenya’s coffee journey is only just beginning.

“When we started, speciality coffee houses were almost non-existent. Even the reputable ones offered commercial coffee. Now, more are appearing, and I have seen a few set up, which means that Kenyans are beginning to realise that they can actually have better coffee. We are seeing more curiosity now. People are starting to ask questions about the beans, the farms, and the flavours. However, we still have a very long way to go. Change starts with one customer at a time.

Wangui maintains that speciality coffee is not just about expensive beans. It’s about identity, traceability, and craftsmanship, which can only be achieved if more coffee houses in Kenya start serving competition-grade coffees recognised globally.

“Speciality coffee has an identity. You can trace it back to the farmer, the farm, and even the processing method. If a farmer called David uses carbonic maceration, for example, that process alone can completely transform the flavour of the coffee.’

She believes that the future of Kenya’s coffee culture can grow further if the market also begins to value farmers.

‘Most farmers have never tasted their best coffee. We must care about the farmers because that’s where the flavour of your coffee starts. If farmers are empowered and supported, they will continue to produce quality coffee instead of abandoning coffee farming altogether or cutting down the trees.’

Speciality coffee sits at the top of the hierarchy. At the bottom is commercial coffee, which is essentially mass-produced and inconsistent in terms of its structure and flavour. Above that is premium coffee, which is very good quality, clean and possibly single-origin, but without a deep, traceable story. Then, at the very top, is speciality coffee.

“Speciality coffee is bespoke. As I said, it is traceable. You can identify the farmer, the farm, the processing method, the terroir and even the pH of the soil, and how the coffee was harvested and dried. Every stage of production has a story,” she explains.

Speciality coffee is also scored.

“In a standardised global grading system administered by certified Q grader-tasters who have undergone rigorous training, the cup must score above 856 percent. The same cup sent to graders in Brazil, the UK and Nairobi should receive consistent ratings based on body, acidity, flavour and finish.’

Kenyan coffee, she says, is genuinely rare. “Because of its cup quality and the country’s unique highland terroir, it has historically been used to enhance blends, imparting depth and brightness to coffees from other regions. Pure, unblended Kenyan speciality coffee on the international market is highly prized. But there’s no sense of that here. No pride, no recognition.”

Although Wangui believes that the culture is slowly growing, the Agriculture and Food Authority disagrees.

According to the authority, local consumption has risen sharply, with the number of coffee houses increasing from just 14 in 2022 to over 800 today.

Felix Mutwiri, director of the Coffee Directorate at AFA, noted that this trend reflects Kenya’s evolving urban lifestyle, as well as the growing speciality coffee culture that has taken root in Nairobi and other cities and major towns.

According to Mutwiri, local coffee consumption remained stagnant at around three percent of the total crop for years, as most Kenyan coffee was exported.

However, around 2,000 tonnes of the beans are currently consumed locally, signaling a cultural shift in how Kenyans relate to coffee, he says.

‘Right now, we have over 800 coffee shops. That shows consumption is increasing,’ says Mutwiri.

He added that quality of coffee is deteriorating in many producing countries due to climate-related stresses, adding that Kenya can fill part of the resulting premium market gap thanks to its reputation for high-quality Arabica coffee.

‘We want to assure Kenyans and farmers that the government is committed to ensuring there is a market for their coffee,’ he said.

Major shareholders of NCBA Group bought an extra 449,509 shares in the bank for Sh38.8 million before South Africa’s Nedbank Group made an offer to acquire a 66 percent stake in the Nairobi Securities Exchange-listed firm.

The shares were purchased at an average price of Sh86.45, placing the investors in a position to book substantial gains from selling to Nedbank.

The trades also allow the unnamed investors to increase their ownership in Nedbank and NCBA, with the ongoing transaction initially structured to allow one to retain 34 percent of his holdings in NCBA and sell the rest for cash and shares of Nedbank.

The South African firm submitted its offer on January 21, 2026 to acquire 1.087 billion shares of NCBA at a price ranging from Sh100 to Sh105 per share depending on whether an investor takes cash only or cash and shares in the multinational.

Those to be paid in cash only have been offered a price of Sh105 per share.

The additional NCBA shares were purchased by investors who have committed to sell their holdings to the Johannesburg Stock Exchange-listed firm.

‘During the period between 28 November 2025 and the date of this offer document [April 17, 2026], the following NCBA shareholders who have signed irrevocable undertakings acquired additional NCBA shares on the dates and at the prices set out below,’ Nedbank said in its offer document.

‘Save for the above transactions, there have been no other transactions involving NCBA shares undertaken by any other NCBA shareholders who have signed irrevocable undertakings.’

The share purchases started on December 4, 2025 and terminated on the eve of Nedbank’s offer.

Investors bought the shares through a Kestrel Capital nominee account and investment partnership of D and M Management Services LLP.

Most of the shares were bought through Kestrel.

NCBA shareholders can tender 66 percent of their holdings to Nedbank. Out of this pool of shares, 80 percent of the units will be converted into Nedbank shares at a rate of 4.02994 shares for every 100 shares.

The Nedbank shares are priced at 250 rand (Sh1,928.5) using the deal’s exchange rate.

The remaining 20 percent of the shares will be bought in cash at a rate of Sh2,100 for every 100 shares or Sh21 apiece. NCBA owners may apply to sell more shares to Nedbank in case there is undersubscription, with up to 75 percent of the additional stocks being accepted.

The cost of two-bedroom stand-alone house in the leafy suburbs of Lavington, Runda and Karen has fallen since 2022, keeping the price at near par with those in middle income estate like Langata and Parklands, a new survey shows.

New data from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics shows the smaller units in the high-end estates dropped to Sh8 million from Sh22 million in 2022 amid reduced demand.

This kept the prices new a stand-alone two-bedroom cost of Sh7.78 million in middle income estate like Langata and Parklands.

Top earners and wealthy businessmen buying properties in the two zones appear to prefer larger units, whose costs have increased in double digits in the period under review.

A three-bedroom house in the high-end estate rose to Sh23 million from Sh20 million over the three years while four-bedroom home was up to Sh60 million from Sh40 million , a 50 percent jump.

The narrowing price gap between upper-income and middle-income estates points to growing pressure in Nairobi’s premium housing market, where developers and homeowners are struggling with slower sales, reduced speculative demand and tighter household budgets.

At Sh22 million in 2022, a two-bedroom house in Nairobi Upper cost more than six times the price of a similar unit in middle-income estates.

By 2025, the premium had almost disappeared, with upper-market houses costing only slightly more than homes in Nairobi Middle locations.

The decline reflects changing market dynamics in Kenya’s real estate sector, where high borrowing costs, expensive mortgages and weaker disposable incomes have pushed many buyers away from luxury property purchases.

Property analysts say middle-income estates are increasingly attracting demand from salaried professionals and first-time homeowners seeking relatively affordable homes with access to urban infrastructure.

The data also suggests that high-end property owners may have been forced to cut asking prices aggressively to attract buyers in a market experiencing slower transaction volumes.

Kenya’s housing market has in recent years faced mounting pressure from elevated construction costs, reduced access to credit and a broader economic slowdown that has weakened purchasing power.

While upper-income suburbs traditionally commanded strong price growth due to exclusivity and land scarcity, the latest figures indicate that affordability concerns are reshaping demand patterns across Nairobi’s residential market.