The main sectors banks expect to drive Kenya’s economy

Commercial banks are betting on traders and builders as the country’s drivers of economic expansion, channelling more than half of fresh credit into commerce and construction businesses.

Trade, building and construction sectors accounted for Sh195.5 billion, or 54.22 percent, of new net credit in the year to May 2026, data by the Central Bank of Kenya shows, while manufacturers continued repaying loans.

This came in a period when bank lending to the private sector rose by Sh360.6 billion compared with Sh75.2 billion the year before.

Trade emerged as the biggest beneficiary after absorbing Sh153.5 billion in additional credit, or 42.6 percent of all new private-sector lending created during the year, signaling where lenders expect business activity and economic growth to strengthen.

The shift in lending suggests banks expect Kenya’s economy to be powered by commerce, retail activity, infrastructure projects and agricultural production rather than factory expansion or logistics.

‘Improved uptake of credit across sectors is expected to support growth, particularly in trade, building and construction, agriculture and consumer durables,’ CBK Governor Kamau Thugge said after the June Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

Construction, trade and agriculture, Dr Thugge said, were recording increases in bank lending, reflecting stronger demand for credit in those sectors.

Building and construction received Sh42 billion in additional credit in the year to May, agriculture Sh46.6 billion and consumer durables Sh42.1 billion, reflecting a pattern that favours sectors linked to domestic demand, government projects and household spending.

The lenders made these bets after more than a year of gradual monetary easing in borrowing costs, with the weighted average lending rate falling to 14.5 percent in May from a peak of 17.22 percent in November 2024.

The lending rates, however, remained relatively elevated, sitting above the roughly 12 percent levels in early 2022.

That means banks expanded credit before the cost of money returned to the lower levels that prevailed before the 2022-2023 global supply-chain disruptions triggered a wave of central-bank interest-rate hikes, suggesting lenders are selectively directing funds toward sectors they believed would generate stronger growth and more reliable repayments.

Manufacturing was one of only three major sectors where credit shrank, falling Sh38.6 billion to Sh547.6 billion despite overall private-sector lending expanding by 9.3 percent.

Transport and communications lending declined by Sh28.9 billion, while real estate remained largely flat, indicating lenders remain cautious about sectors exposed to high operating costs and slower investment cycles.

The contrast highlights a growing divide inside the country’s productive economy, with banks favouring businesses that generate cash quickly over capital-intensive industries requiring longer investment horizons.

The CBK governor said the manufacturing contraction resulted from net loan repayments in April and May, meaning existing borrowers paid more debt than they borrowed during those months.

‘In the case of the manufacturing sector, there were net loan repayments in both April and May, which explains the contraction in credit in both of those months,’ Dr Thugge said.

‘It is expected that this will recover in the coming months.’

Even with that explanation, the bank lending figures show financiers committed substantially more capital to commerce than to manufacturing, underscoring where lenders currently see stronger opportunities and lower risk.

Trade is often considered one of the fastest-moving sectors for bank lending because businesses require working capital to finance inventories, imports, distribution networks and day-to-day commercial activity.

The increase in lending to traders suggests banks expect consumer demand and business transactions to remain resilient despite persistent cost pressures across the economy in the wake of unresolved Israel-US war with Iran.

Construction represents the second major pillar of that optimism, according to the industry data.

Credit to the sector jumped 26.2 percent, reflecting expectations that affordable housing projects, infrastructure works, settlement of pending government bills and public-private partnerships will sustain building activity.

The resurgence follows the Ruto administration’s decision to restart hundreds of road projects that had stalled under an estimated Sh650 billion backlog of unpaid bills owed to local and international contractors.

More than 500 road projects resumed from 2025 after the Roads ministry negotiated a return-to-work arrangement backed by an initial Sh123 billion payment, restoring contractors’ cash flows and renewing demand for bank financing.

Dr Thugge says the industrial sector is expected to remain resilient largely because of construction activity and government-backed investment programmes.

Agriculture delivered one of the strongest performances, with credit rising 32 percent to Sh192 billion during the year to May.

Banks have traditionally been cautious about agricultural lending because of weather-related risks, making the latest increase particularly significant.

Dr Thugge attributes the improved outlook to favourable weather conditions which are expected to support agricultural growth through 2026 and 2027.

That combination of stronger farm lending and higher trade financing points to an economy increasingly anchored in food production, distribution and domestic commerce.

Consumer durables lending also expanded, suggesting banks remain willing to finance household purchases despite elevated living costs.

Together with a 4.9 percent rise to Sh591.6 billion in lending to private households, the data indicates that domestic consumption remains a key component of the credit recovery.

On the other hand, manufacturing and transport remain vulnerable to higher electricity and fuel costs, expensive imported inputs and weaker industrial investment, pressures that continue to weigh on borrowing demand and repayment capacity.

Dr Thugge warned in June that higher energy prices were expected to affect manufacturing, transport and storage, accommodation and food services, and wholesale and retail trade.

Banking industry executives say factories are still struggling to regain momentum despite policy efforts aimed at boosting production.

‘Manufacturing has never really fully recovered since Covid days. There’s policy work that is being done to support it, but there is still a lot of work to be done there,’ KCB Group Chief Financial Officer Lawrence Kimathi said in March, in reference to a sector that accounted for 14.8 percent of the lender’s gross loan book last year.

The Kenya Association of Manufacturers’ 2026 Manufacturing Priority Agenda identifies multiple pressures holding back industrial expansion, including heavy taxation, high electricity costs, weak global competitiveness and cash-flow constraints.

Manufacturers also face expensive imported raw materials, levies such as the Import Declaration Fee and Railway Development Levy, delayed VAT refunds, and competition from counterfeit and contraband goods.

Those structural challenges partly help explain why factory borrowing remains weak even as lending rates have eased and banks expand credit to faster-growing sectors.

The latest figures, therefore, point to a recovery in private sector credit that is uneven rather than broad-based.

The data shows banks are not withdrawing from the economy, but are reallocating capital toward activities they believe will expand faster and generate stronger cash flows.

Put communities at centre of HIV response in Africa

The future of HIV response depends on more than funding medicines and technologies. As governments take greater ownership of HIV programmes, they must also sustain a community centred approaches that have underpinned progress over the last four decades.

As the global HIV community gathers in Rio de Janeiro for the 2026 International AIDS Conference under the theme Rethink. Rebuild. Rise, we find ourselves at a defining moment.

Like never before, science has produced innovative HIV prevention tools with the potential to cut new HIV infections. Emergence of long-acting HIV prevention technologies, including long-acting injectable PrEP, marks another major milestone in the fight against the virus.

Yet new technologies only achieve public health impact when people trust them, can access them and choose to use them.

Kenya’s rollout of oral PrEP in 2017 offers an important example. Awareness and curiosity were initially high, but sustaining uptake proved more challenging. It became clear that making prevention technology available was not enough as people also needed to trust and understand it before feeling more confident using it.

As a technical partner supporting the Ministry of Health and NASCOP in introducing and scaling up oral PrEP, Lvcthealth helped generate evidence that shaped Kenya’s national rollout. During the IPCP oral PrEP demonstration project among adolescent girls and young women and female sex workers, continuation on oral PrEP declined from nearly 100 percent at initiation to about 30 percent within three months.

Working with communities to understand why people were discontinuing oral PrEP, we found that the barriers had little to do with the medicine itself.

We also found that stigma, misconceptions, concerns about confidentiality and low perception of HIV risk often shaped people’s decisions more than the scientific evidence behind the intervention. These findings informed provider training, demand generation and community engagement strategies, ensuring the national rollout better responded to people’s realities.

Working alongside communities, we developed trusted information materials, engaged community gatekeepers, and created spaces for honest dialogue about HIV prevention.

These conversations went beyond encouraging people to use oral PrEP and helped us understand how HIV prevention fit within people’s aspirations, relationships and everyday lives, while building confidence in oral PrEP and informing approaches that continue to shape HIV prevention programmes today.

We have continued applying these lessons through studies supporting introduction of new PrEP technologies under the MOSAIC consortium. Demand-generation tools co-created with young people are now supporting Kenya’s rollout of long-acting injectable PrEP, helping ensure these innovations reach the adolescents and young people who stand to benefit most.

These experiences have also contributed to global evidence on HIV prevention. A recent study published in The Lancet HIV and co-authored by Lvcthealth researchers reinforces what communities have long demonstrated that meaningful community engagement is essential to ensuring HIV prevention programmes are trusted, responsive and effective.

These lessons matter because the next phase of the HIV response will look very different from the last. As countries take greater ownership, there is a real risk that the conversation focuses primarily on sustaining medicines, diagnostics and new prevention technologies. Those investments are essential, but they are only part of what has driven progress.

We must also rebuild trust by ensuring communities are not passive recipients of innovation, but active partners in shaping how new technologies are introduced, delivered and sustained.

Community voices should inform not only what interventions are offered, but how they are implemented, so they respond to people’s realities, priorities, and aspirations.

Putting communities at the centre means much more than consulting them. It means listening before programmes are designed, co-designing solutions alongside communities and continuously adapting services based on their evolving needs and feedback. It is through these partnerships that policies become more responsive, and health systems become more resilient.

Beyond the app: Why farmers still require human touch in financing

If you spend any actual time on the ground in places like Kitale, you quickly realise how detached our conversations about agricultural financing are when they happen in air-conditioned boardrooms in Nairobi and other world capitals.

Out in the fields, the statistics look like Mama Wafula. She does not need a weather app to tell her the rains have changed; she can see it in her maize stalks. Her problem is not a lack of data but a lack of cash. She needs a realistic way to pay for certified seeds or a solar pump before her topsoil turns to dust.

Yet international venture capital tells a different story. For the past decade, tech hubs and global summits have promoted the idea that building an app and refining an algorithm can solve poverty. Investors embraced the narrative, pouring more than $1 billion into Kenyan fintechs on the promise that instant mobile credit would transform livelihoods. It has not.

The 2026 Kenya National Bureau of Statistics Economic Survey shows the economy remains resilient, but agricultural growth slowed to 3.1 percent as erratic weather disrupted production. When climate shocks hit, purely digital lending begins to fail.

Farming does not follow a neat 30-day repayment cycle, yet most lending apps rely on short-term unsecured loans.

Expecting rigid repayment schedules to support an industry where nearly 80 percent of farmers depend on rainfall is not innovation. It is a structural design failure.

Commercial banks largely avoid smallholder farmers because they consider them too risky. Fintech firms step in with quick but expensive loans that rarely match crop cycles, trapping many households in debt instead of helping them grow.

If agriculture is to realise its potential, we must stop treating automation as a silver bullet.

We need a hybrid model that combines digital efficiency with human relationships and local knowledge. Micro-finance institutions like Juhudi Kilimo have demonstrated this for years.

Rather than offering unsecured cash, they finance productive assets such as dairy cows and irrigation equipment.

They have channelled more than Sh14.5 billion into rural communities, reaching half a million households, with about 70 percent of clients being women who are often excluded from conventional bank lending. Their success rests on community peer groups that overcome long-standing structural barriers.

An app can transfer money in seconds, but it cannot tell whether a farmer has bought counterfeit seeds or show them how to use a drip irrigation kit.

Government platforms such as the Kenya Inte-grated Agriculture Management Information System have registered more than seven million farmers, but data alone does not grow food. Real progress comes when digital systems are backed by local field officers who provide training, build trust, promote financial literacy and share climate-smart farming practices.

Fintech is a powerful accelerator, but it is not a cure-all. A financial system that truly supports farmers must combine smart digital tools with people who understand the realities of life in the field.

Fresh win for book publishers in fight against factory tax

The Kenya Bureau of Standards (Kebs) has suffered a fresh blow after the High Court rejected its push to impose factory taxes on a book publisher, marking a back-to-back defeat for the agency.

The court rejected an appeal by Kebs, seeking to revive a Sh52 million standards levy against book printer Oxford University Press East Africa, saying that book publishers are not manufacturers and cannot be subject to the levy under the Standards Act.

This is the second such verdict in favour of book publishers in a fight against the monthly Kebs factory tax, which is charged at 0.2 percent of the monthly turnover of goods manufactured or services offered, with the Standards (Standards Levy) Order 2025 capping it at Sh4 million per annum for five years, with an exemption for manufacturers with an annual turnover of less than Sh5 million.

In April 2026, the High Court upheld a tribunal’s decision to reject a factory tax claim by Kebs against Moran (E.A) Publishers, saying that the book publisher outsources printing services and doesn’t qualify as a manufacturer.

In its ruling, the High Court dismissed an appeal by Kebs and upheld an earlier decision of the Standards Tribunal that freed Moran from the multi-million-shilling demand.

The dispute stemmed from demands issued by Kebs in January and March 2024, seeking Sh52.1 million in levies and penalties covering the period between 2017 and 2023.

Moran challenged the claim before the Standards Tribunal, arguing it is not a manufacturer and, therefore, not liable to pay the levy imposed under the Standards Act.

And now, the High Court has sided with Oxford University Press East Africa, saying publishers are not automatically manufacturers and Kebs failed to prove the publisher carried out such activities that attracted the levy under the Standards Act.

The court upheld an earlier Standards Tribunal decision that cancelled Kebs’ demand for Sh52.1 million in alleged unpaid standards levy and penalties issued against the educational publisher in January 2024.

The dispute began in 2023 after Kebs demanded the money from Oxford University Press East Africa for unpaid Standards Levy and penalties covering 2017 to 2023. Kebs argued that Oxford qualified as a manufacturer because it exercised control over the production of books despite outsourcing the printing.

Oxford challenged the demand before the Standards Tribunal, maintaining it was a publisher rather than a manufacturer because independent printing firms carried out the physical production and had already paid the applicable standards levy. The Tribunal agreed with Oxford in July 2024, prompting Kebs’s appeal.

The dispute centred on whether Oxford qualified as a manufacturer because it commissioned, published and distributed books, even though independent companies handled the physical printing and binding.

Kebs argued the law gives a broad meaning to manufacturing and said Oxford exercised overall control over creating finished books despite outsourcing production.

Oxford maintained it was a publisher rather than a manufacturer because third-party printers carried out the printing and binding and remitted any applicable standards levy.

It publishes textbooks, dictionaries and other educational materials for schools across the region, but contracts independent firms to print and bind its books.

The court agreed that the Standards Act gives an expansive definition of manufacture but found that alone was insufficient to impose the levy.

“I agree with the appellant that the definition of manufacture under section 2 of the Standards Act is expansive and is not confined to the conventional transformation of raw materials into finished goods in a factory,” the court said.

However, he added that the wider definition did not remove KEBS’ obligation to establish the factual basis for liability before demanding payment.

“The appellant was required to establish the factual activities undertaken by the respondent which brought it within the statutory process of manufacture,” the court said.

Court records showed Oxford produced publishing agreements with authors and contracts covering paper supply, printing and binding services.

The evidence indicated independent suppliers in Kenya and abroad physically printed and bound the books before Oxford marketed and distributed the finished publications.

The court said commercial responsibility for bringing books to market did not automatically make a publisher a manufacturer under the Standards Levy Order.

“There is a distinction between being commercially responsible for bringing a product to market and actually engaging in the statutory process of manufacture,” it said.

It ruled that Kebs did not present sufficient evidence that Oxford carried out manufacturing activities contemplated under the law.

Homes, land price boom in Nairobi outskirts ends

A decades-long property boom on the outskirts of Nairobi, including Kiambu, Kitengela and Ngong, is coming to an end as home prices drop and land costs soften.

HassConsult, a property agency which compiles a quarterly property index, says that house prices in the satellite towns have dropped in the past two quarters to June, while land cost grew 1.4 percent – the slowest in eight years.

This is a departure from a market structure that saw housing and property prices on the outskirts of Nairobi rise annually in double digits over a period of nearly two decades since 2002.

Housing had been one of Kenya’s fastest-growing sectors in the decade to 2019, with returns from real estate outpacing equities and government securities.

But equities, bonds and money market funds have risen to the top as developers struggle to sell units to a market that is balking at meeting the offer prices.

Eight out of 10 towns whose house prices have been tracked by the realtor over 18 years recorded a decline during the quarter ended June, led by Ongata Rongai, where the cost of homes dropped 2.7 percent to Sh15.6 million and 2.5 percent to Sh19.4 million in Ngong.

Ngong recorded the largest drop in land prices at 2.5 percent in the quarter under review, with Limuru, Athi River, Kiambu, Kitengela, Syokimau and Tigoni all reporting declines.

‘Despite resilient occupier demand, satellite towns continue to face greater price pressure than Nairobi’s suburbs, reflecting the sensitivity of their buyer base to rising household costs and tighter economic conditions,’ said Sakina Hassanali, the HassConsult co-CEO and creative director.

The property craze saw coffee plantations in the capital’s suburbs uprooted to pave the way for gated housing estates and shopping centres, creating thousands of construction jobs.

But a soft economy, a leap in commercial interest rates and costly property prices have upended the market, wiping out developers’ and land dealers’ returns.

This has seen developers cutting back or postponing new construction as high-net worth investors put billions of shillings in the Nairobi bourse, government securities and money market funds.

The Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE) has posted returns of 31 percent since the start of the year.

This reaffirmed the Nairobi bourse as the shortest route to wealth in an economy that has oscillated between strong and soft growth as investors increasingly turn to passive investments instead of pouring money into startups.

Kenya’s soft economy has left workers with a lower disposable income as employers have become hesitant to offer salary increases to cover inflation.

Inflation-adjusted earnings or real wages – a barometer for measuring employees’ purchasing power- grew by 2.0 percent last year, marking the first time since 2020 that growth in workers’ earnings has surpassed the increase in consumer prices.

Consequently, a regularly paid worker, or wage employee, saw his or her monthly real earnings increase marginally to Sh56,566 last year from Sh55,450 in 2024.

The earnings are, however, still lower than in 2020, when they stood at Sh62,256, meaning workers’ earnings have suffered an erosion of Sh5,690 compared to six years ago, excluding the effects of the new housing and health levies.

Infrastructure improvements, including new roads, provision of electricity to poor areas and improving security in crime-ridden areas from the early 2000s, drove land prices higher.

This raised expectations of even higher prices, fuelling the property boom.

Analysis of Nairobi land prices by HassConsult shows that in the year to March 2026, land prices in the satellite towns grew at an average of 4.3 percent, down from 9.93 percent in the year to March 2025.

Over five years, the average price per acre has gone up by 50 percent, from Sh22 million to Sh33 million, and has effectively doubled from Sh16 million per acre over 10 years.

This means that a person buying a quarter-acre piece of land to build a home is now being asked to pay Sh8.3 million on average in the areas surrounding the city, up from Sh5.5 million in 2021 and Sh4 million in 2016.

But the red-hot market is chilling.

Housing developers say the pace of building has cooled in recent years, after nearly two decades of rises that nearly tripled values.

Real estate analysts feel this underlying demand will prevent an all-out crash.

Kenya’s small businesses must embrace digital transformation

Last week, I came across a Facebook video of a farmer in Kisii advertising fresh matoke. As the mother of a weaning baby, finding quality matoke has always been a challenge.

Like many Kenyans, I hesitated, wondering whether the seller was genuine. I took the chance anyway, and two days later my parcel arrived. It reminded me how technology is transforming markets while highlighting the need for ethical digital practices in an era of online scams.

Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) are the backbone of Kenya’s economy, employing nine out of every 10 young people entering the workforce. Yet many still rely on paper records to manage sales, stock and expenses, limiting productivity, access to finance and growth.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) and digital tools offer an opportunity to change that. AI is not simply about replacing jobs; it helps businesses improve productivity, make informed decisions and better understand customers.

At the same time, platforms such as TikTok and Facebook have evolved into thriving marketplaces, while free tools like Canva enable entrepreneurs to market products professionally at minimal cost.

However, technology is only as valuable as the trust behind it. Every successful online transaction depends on honesty, transparency and consumer confidence. Entrepreneurs who embrace ethical digital practices-by delivering quality products, protecting customer data and honouring their promises-will build loyal customers and stronger brands in an increasingly competitive online marketplace.

Many businesses now operate from home, using social media to reach customers and pickup points to avoid the cost of physical shops. Consumers also benefit from real-time information about products and promotions.

The Government’s Bottom-Up Economic Transformation Agenda recognises the importance of MSMEs through programmes such as Nyota, which combines business training, financial inclusion and digital tools.

As the African Union advances its Continental AI Strategy, Kenya must invest in digital literacy, afford-able internet and ethical technology use.

The future of MSMEs will depend not only on access to capital but also on their ability to embrace technology, innovation and data.

Empowering entrepreneurs with the right skills and tools will create jobs, strengthen businesses and build a more resilient economy.

How Kenyans lost Sh491m, cryptos via SIM hijack

Kenyans lost Sh491.6 million ($3.8 million) and cryptocurrency after cyber-criminals hijacked victims’ mobile phone numbers in SIM-swap fraud.

Interpol reckons that Kenya’s SIM swap fraud surged by 327 percent last year on the back of increased use of mobile money platforms.

The surge in attacks highlights the risk of cyber heists in the wake of heavy tech adoption by banks and mobile banking investments.

SIM swap fraud occurs when a fraudster convinces a mobile carrier to transfer a victim’s phone number to a SIM card they control, exploiting the legitimate feature of mobile number portability.

Once the swap is complete, the victim’s phone loses network connectivity, and the fraudster receives all calls and texts, including one-time passwords for account access.

‘In 2025, SIM swap fraud surged by 327 percent in Kenya, with more than 123,000 fraudulent SIMs issued and an estimated $3.8 million (Sh491.6 million) drained from mobile wallets,’ said Interpol.

‘Tanzania and Rwanda reported similar patterns, with telecoms providers struggling to implement real-time biometric verification.’

Interpol says mobile money fraud has become one of Africa’s most prominent cyber-enabled crimes, with 97 percent of countries surveyed by the global police identifying it as their most common scam.

Interpol said weak and inconsistent know-your-customer (KYC) procedures, coupled with the inability of some telecoms operators to verify identities in real time, continue to leave mobile money users vulnerable.

‘The widespread use of mobile money platforms, while enhancing financial inclusion, has also created new attack surfaces, particularly in countries where Know Your Customer (KYC) protocols are weak or inconsistently enforced,’ the agency said.

‘The root cause remains inconsistent KYC protocols, particularly in countries where telecoms providers lack the technical capacity to verify identity in real time.’

The scale of the losses underscores the growing financial toll of cybercrime targeting digital payment platforms.

‘Ghanian citizens lost $1.3 million (Sh168.2 million) in the first quarter of the year, while Tanzania reported a 19 percent reduction in attempts following stricter SIM registration enforcement,’ said the international policing agency.

Interpol said governments, telecoms operators and financial service providers need to strengthen safeguards against SIM swap fraud and improve coordination in responding to cyber-enabled financial crime.

It urged authorities to tighten identity verification and enhance information sharing.

‘Require all mobile money platforms and fintechs to integrate real-time fraud alerts with national cybercrime units. Mandate biometric verification at the point of SIM registration and KYC onboarding,’ said Interpol.

Kenya built a reputation as a pioneer of financial inclusion through its early adoption of a mobile money system that enables people to transfer cash and make payments on cellphones with or without a bank account.

This has become a hackers’ paradise.

Mobile banking was the hardest hit, with criminals siphoning off Sh810.68 million in 2024, translating to a 344 percent rise from Sh182.41 million in the prior year.

The thefts often happen on Friday and Saturday nights, with millennials-individuals born between 1981 and 1996- being the most affected.

Warning signs of SIM swapping include sudden loss of mobile service, unexpected text messages or emails about account changes, inability to access accounts or unauthorised transactions.

‘Mobile banking fraud cases surged 87 percent, driven by social engineering, credential compromise, and SIM swap schemes,’ says Safaricom in its latest annual report.

Safaricom says a new technology, or the so-called Single View (View360) SIM swap platform, is helping fight the vice.

It provides Safaricom agents with a centralised dashboard to verify customer identities and safely execute telephone line replacements while flagging high-risk transactions.

‘The platform runs 18 automated pre-checks, covering roaming status, fraud location patterns, device activity, and more, handing decision-making to the system rather than frontline agents,’ says Safaricom.

‘Due to the adoption of Single View, fraudulent swaps have dropped by 65 percent, and this will drop further due to the enhancements that are in the pipeline.’

Tax amnesty: Debunking the political lies

We are, on a continuous basis, fed fake news, propaganda, false and misleading narratives. You do well to maintain a healthy skepticism, and to fact-check as much as possible, just to make sense of what is going on.

Politicians create, and Kenyans fall for, propaganda for many reasons. In the main though, it is because of tribalism, confirmation bias, fear and survival. Humans naturally prefer their own group and distrust outsiders, as a safety mechanism. Every parent cautions their children against strangers.

People easily believe false information if it matches what they already think. That is why the stereotypes we have for each other in our tribes are so easily exploited to create fear.

In turn, fear makes people accept simple, strong messages that promise safety or blame others.

Today, never mind actual economic conditions and prospects for growth, people’s income struggles are blamed on other tribes, or traitors in our own! And heaven forbid if the other tribe takes power, ‘for you are finished’, our tribal chieftains proclaim to much applause.

All this is amplified by social media, whose algorithms supercharge lies and propaganda by directly exploiting tribalism, confirmation bias, and fear to maximise user engagement. Social media has become a favourite for politicians. Instead of showing an objective view of the world, digital platforms function as invisible mirrors that reflect and amplify human psychological vulnerabilities.

Algorithms prioritise content that sparks high interactions – likes, comments, shares- rather than accuracy. This engagement-based ranking feeds on, and thrives by tribalism. Platforms actively boost information that is prestigious, ingroup, moral, and emotional to increase engagement.

Users are grouped into homogeneous online communities. These echo chambers create polarisation, because seeing only one side deepens the ‘us versus them’ mentality. Algorithms track exactly which messages you pause on, click, or argue with. The system filters out opposing viewpoints to keep you comfortable and online.

Constant repetition of the echo chamber makes biased or false information feel like universal truth, distorting reality. And because content is seamlessly mixed into personalised feeds, it bypasses, normal fact-checking instincts.

Social media monetises fear and outrage. The creators know that fear and anger trigger the fastest, most intense human reactions. The algorithms are created with this in mind.

Real footage can be modified, by adding siren sounds or screams, to force psychological fixation.

Politicians create a sense of crisis, because they know that fear drives people to seek quick answers, making them highly susceptible to simple, malicious lies. The social media platforms profit from clicks, effectively turning panic, anxiety and outrage, into financial gain.

In the Mt. Kenya’s tribal politics, I am now the target of a regular dose of untruths, defamation and outright lies about myself, my role in tax administration, who I am, and what I stand for.

One outlandish untruth being peddled by a prominent politician is that I am somehow punishing Kikuyus through taxation. Laughable, but sadly calculated to dissuade citizens from taking advantage of the on-going tax amnesty, and diminish tax morale. The tax amnesty is, of course, for all taxpayers. Singling out a particular community to persuade them that it is a bad thing is incredibly mean and reckless of politicians.

Tax morale depends, in part, on the trust that citizens have in the tax administration authority. Citizens want fairness, respectful service and clear information. So, morale drops if the tax rules seem to favour some people.

Tax agencies that are helpful service providers rather than harsh enforcers build higher compliance and trust. Simple rules and clear education on how taxes work make people feel more confident to pay. The Kenya Revenue Authority constantly works to improve all three.

What can one do? There are several digital truth and fact-checking platforms that can help debunk misinformation, verify political claims, and flag online hate speech. I found a few online after a brief search – PesaCheck, Africa Check (Kenya Bureau), Piga Firimbi, and Hakikisha.

Images are sometimes manipulated or taken out of context to spread false narratives. You can Reverse Image Search to verify the origin of an image and determine if it has been misused. Pasting its URL can reveal where and when it was first published, helping to expose fake visuals.

In 2022, the Media Council ran iVerify Kenya Desk, leveraging automated tools and training media desks to track down hate speech and election-related propaganda. They will do well to bring it back.

Regulator now plans tighter data shields on offshore AI platforms

Offshore artificial intelligence (AI) system providers face enhanced privacy safeguards under a new proposal aimed at holding them accountable for breaches of personal data abroad.

The Office of the Data Protection Commissioner (ODPC) has published a draft guidance note as it seeks to tighten scrutiny on the growing use of cross-border AI tools among firms such as banks and insurers.

The draft framework says firms must formalise relationships with vendors and ensure enforceable protections are in place before any data leaves Kenya. The proposal places new compliance demands on companies that export personal data for processing outside the country.

The ODPC said it has noted a trend in which AI services are frequently provided by offshore processors, and training data transferred to and processed in foreign jurisdictions without adequate data protection frameworks.

The regulator now wants formal contractual arrangements between local firms and offshore AI providers, with the agreements explicitly governing how personal data is handled once transferred.

‘Entities shall assess and document the adequacy of data protection in any jurisdiction to which personal data is transferred in connection with AI processing and shall implement contractual or other safeguards including binding corporate rules or contractual clauses where adequacy cannot be established. Entities may not transfer personal data to offshore AI processors without a lawful transfer basis,’ reads the draft note.

The provision effectively forces firms to embed privacy protections into their international data-sharing arrangements rather than relying on informal or ad hoc measures.

The draft guidance note adds that firms will be required to ‘enter into a written data processing agreement governing the vendor’s handling of personal data,’ ensuring that offshore providers are legally bound to meet Kenya’s data protection standards.

The regulator says the responsibility for data privacy safeguards will rest with the local entity even when data processing is outsourced overseas.

‘Entities deploying AI systems bear accountability for ensuring that the system complies with data protection law throughout its lifecycle,’ reads the draft.

The proposals align with global trends, where regulators are tightening controls on AI and cross-border data flows to mitigate data privacy risks.

The move comes amid a surge in the use of global AI platforms in Kenya, many hosted in jurisdictions with differing data protection standards, raising concerns over how citizens’ data is stored, processed, and potentially reused.

The proposals could have wide-ranging implications, particularly for sectors such as finance, healthcare, and telecommunications, where AI-driven tools are increasingly used for customer analytics, fraud detection, and automation.

Financial firms such as banks and insurers are increasingly using AI for credit scoring, fraud detection and claims adjudication, while hospitals apply machine learning to diagnostic imaging as law enforcement agencies explore predictive analytics.

In addition, employers are turning to algorithmic tools to screen job candidates, as retailers and digital platforms deploy AI for personalised advertising and content recommendation.

‘The volume of personal data being collected, aggregated, and fed into AI training pipelines and inference systems is growing exponentially. AI systems by their nature introduce novel data protection challenges that existing sectoral guidance has not fully addressed,’ said ODPC.

How a Kenyan lawyer built a career, immigration firm in the US

Dr Jephnei Orina stood inside a United States immigration office, watching a woman cry tears of joy. She had waited 18 years for this moment.

Years earlier, immigration officers had planned to deny her asylum application because she had tried to handle the paperwork herself and failed to submit crucial evidence. Then she hired Orina.

He reviewed every page of her file, gathered the missing documents and walked into the interview by her side.

When the woman was finally granted asylum, she hugged him tightly and kissed him on the cheek.

“That felt so good for me,” Orina says. “You are able to use your knowledge, your skills, and your experience to change someone’s life.”

He believes every green card he secures for a client is, in many ways, a gift to an entire village back home.

Orina is an advocate of the High Court of Kenya and runs Orina and Orina Advocates along Ngong Road in Nairobi. Even while living in the United States, he still logs into virtual court sessions whenever his Kenyan office needs an extra hand.

But before any of that, he was a boy from Kisii County chasing a dream.

“I was born and raised in Kisii,” he says.

He attended St Charles Carolina for primary school before joining St Joseph School Rapogi in Migori County for secondary education. He later graduated from Kisii University in 2018 with a Bachelor of Education (Arts).

After graduation, he moved to Nairobi to pursue what he says had always been his ambition.

“I have always wanted to be a lawyer.”

He enrolled for a law degree at the University of Nairobi’s Parklands campus while simultaneously pursuing an MBA at Kisii University’s Nairobi campus. His schedule left little room to breathe.

“I came to town, did morning classes, went to work at a law firm in Upper Hill,” he says, before rushing to evening law classes.

He graduated with his law degree in 2021, joined the Kenya School of Law and was admitted as an advocate of the High Court of Kenya in 2023.

Soon afterwards, he left for the United States.

“I really wanted to get this done before I get to my 30s,” he says of his ambition to earn a doctorate. “It exposed me to world-class education and international law.”

He completed a Master of Laws at Northeastern University between 2023 and 2024 before enrolling for a PhD in Law at Suffolk University, graduating on May 17, 2026.

Financing that education demanded enormous sacrifice.

“I sold a piece of land back home, my car. I took out a student loan to help cover my master’s degree,” he says.

To pay for his PhD, he worked at a group home caring for elderly residents and people with mental health needs, earning about Sh2,200 an hour.

“For my PhD, I was working 96 hours, 100 hours a week just to be able to pay it,” he says.

His tuition alone totalled nearly Sh7.8 million.

“So, it was just about working those extra shifts until I’m able to pay it off.”

Finding work as an international student was not straightforward.

“International students are not allowed to work outside the university because, remember, you came to study. That is the main purpose,” he explains.

Campus jobs were scarce, forcing him to seek overnight work at the care facility.

“Once residents finish dinner, take their medication and go to sleep around eight in the evening, you have like a block of 10 hours where you can sit overnight and work on your PhD dissertation. You are not supposed to sleep because you are at work,” he says.

His first days in America proved even more difficult than he had imagined.

“The journey in America was a bit rougher than I thought.”

He landed at Logan International Airport in Boston knowing almost no one. A family friend who had promised to host him stopped answering calls the day before he left Kenya.

“So I get to Logan International Airport, I have nowhere to go. I’m in a new country,” he recalls. “That day I actually slept in the airport.”

The university could only direct him to apartment listings, which offered little help to someone without local contacts.

He began calling everyone he knew in the United States. Eventually, a former Airbnb guest connected him to a family from Thika living outside Boston.

They welcomed him into their home for several months.

Before that, he says, he spent days sleeping in classrooms.

“For almost a week, I was sleeping in the classroom because, you know, you don’t have anywhere to go. So in the morning, you go and take a shower at the gym.”

A friend later gave him a car, making it easier to move around the city as he settled into life in America.

After completing his master’s degree, Orina became eligible to sit the Massachusetts bar examination.

“Massachusetts allows lawyers trained in common law countries like Kenya to complete a one-year master’s programme before testing for the bar,” he says.

“The exam itself is a beast.”

“In Kenya, we just do nine courses and that is one per day. But in the US we do 14 courses within two days, totalling 12 hours.”

He says fewer than 40 per cent of first-time candidates pass.

Preparing for the examination came with immense pressure.

“I had grandparents who depended on me, I have parents who depend on me, I have children, I have a family,” he says.

“I remember when I saw the congratulation email that you passed the bar exams, I literally broke down and cried. It was a good feeling.”

He was admitted to the Massachusetts Bar in May 2025 and opened his own law firm the following month.

He deliberately chose immigration law because it is a federal practice area, allowing him to represent clients across the country while giving him the flexibility to continue his doctoral studies.

“If I was to go and do something like criminal or family law that needs me to go to court, that means you have to go to court at nine,” he says.

Immigration practice, which largely involves paperwork and filings, enabled him to build his business around his studies.

He says lawyers trained in Kenya already possess many of the legal foundations needed to practice in the United States.

“The US and Kenya were both colonies of Britain. So we inherited a lot of things from the British. That is the common law type of system,” he says.

“The only difference is there are two levels of government – the federal government and the state government.”

Away from work, Orina remains deeply connected to Kenya.

“I watch the news every day,” he says.

He says he remains active in politics and community development, returning home about four times a year.

“It is home and we have to build it,” he says.

“We want to build a country where our children can get education and jobs, so they do not have to come to the US.”

For Orina, success in America was never about leaving Kenya behind.

It was about gaining knowledge, experience and opportunity before bringing them back home.

It is a long way from the night he slept on the floor of Logan International Airport, but Orina says every sacrifice was worth it.