The case for multilateralism in a changing world

For much of the post-Cold War era, globalisation and multilateralism travelled together. Trade expanded, capital moved more freely, supply chains stretched across continents, and international institutions assumed a growing role in managing an increasingly interconnected world.

In the process, the web of linkages between countries and continents became deeper and more complex. Supply chains that were once largely contained within national borders now depend on events unfolding thousands of kilometres away. A political crisis in one country or a drought in a distant region, can affect livelihoods across the world.

Globalisation has led to undeniable benefits. Between 1990 and 2026, nearly 1.5 billion people escaped extreme poverty, even as the global population continued to grow. Greater economic integration has also contributed to lower prices for many traded goods and an unprecedented expansion in the cross-border flow of knowledge, technology and innovation.

But its benefits have not been distributed equally. In many countries, communities experienced greater employment insecurity and income inequality widened even as national economies became wealthier.

The share of total income distributed to workers fell by 1.6 percentage points between 2004 and 2024, due to structural shifts, including automation, globalization and the decline in the bargaining power of workers.

Meanwhile, the number of billionaires worldwide increased from 1,757 in 2015 to 2,919 in 2025, an increase of about 66 percent in just a decade, while their combined wealth rose from $6.3 trillion to $15.8 trillion, an increase of roughly 150 percent. Governments did not always build domestic institutions needed to manage these disruptions.

Social protection, worker retraining and other mechanisms for sharing the gains of economic change did not consistently keep pace with the speed of transformation.

Yet much of the resulting anger has been directed at the international system.

Citizens and their governments are increasingly turning away from the promise of collective solutions and towards a more traditional balance of power: national self-reliance, strategic competition and the balancing of one power against another.

This is particularly consequential for Africa. Despite all its imperfections, multilateralism provides developing states with rules, institutions and collective platforms through which asymmetries of power can be moderated. In a more fragmented and transactional international system, African countries risk increasingly negotiating individually with economic and political powers on profoundly unequal terms.

The consequences extend across many of the continent’s most important strategic interests. On climate change, African countries face some of the most severe consequences despite having contributed relatively little to historical emissions.

Their ability to advocate for adaptation finance and a more equitable distribution of the costs of the climate transition depends heavily on collective action. The same is true of debt, trade, and the growing global competition for critical minerals.

Access to capital is another key example. Developing countries often face significantly higher borrowing costs than advanced economies, limiting their ability to invest in infrastructure, social protection, climate resilience, and economic transformation.

If 94 developing countries could borrow at the same rates as those in developed economies, they could collectively save around $500 billion a year in interest payments. For Africa, the challenge is compounded by perceptions of risk and the way sovereign creditworthiness is assessed.

UNDP has estimated that greater objectivity in sovereign credit ratings could save African countries as much as $74.5 billion through lower interest costs and increased access to financing.

Reforming the international financial architecture – including how risk is assessed, how multilateral development banks deploy their balance sheets, and how affordable long-term finance is made available – therefore cannot be achieved by countries acting alone. It requires collective action and institutions capable of addressing structural inequalities in the global economy.

None of this is to suggest that the multilateral system is beyond criticism. Developing countries remain underrepresented in key areas of global decision-making and perceptions of double standards have eroded confidence in international rules. These failures have contributed to the crisis of trust.

But acknowledging the shortcomings of multilateralism is different from concluding that multilateralism itself is the problem.

Indeed, multilateralism should be judged not against an ideal world, but against the realistic alternative. The alternative to imperfect collective institutions may instead be a more fragmented world in which countries respond separately to problems that cross borders and outcomes are determined increasingly by economic, political and military power.

Abandoned cash haul increases to Sh125bn in eight months

Kenya’s unclaimed financial assets fund has grown by 8.41 percent (Sh10 billion) in eight months, reflecting a growing trend of citizens losing track of their wealth, as holding companies ramped up reporting compliance to avoid a 25 percent financial penalty.

Latest disclosures by the Unclaimed Financial Assets Authority (Ufaa) show the value of abandoned wealth remitted to the State-owned agency to date surged by Sh9.7 billion to Sh125 billion from Sh115.03 billion in December 2025.

However, only Sh3.12 billion, equivalent to 2.49 percent of the total unclaimed assets remitted (Sh125 billion), has been reunited to the beneficial owners.

Section 33 of the Unclaimed Financial Assets Act (2011) provides that failure to report and surrender qualifying unclaimed financial assets by November 1 of each year attracts penalties and sanctions of 25 percent of the unclaimed financial assets held.

In addition, failure of a holder to willingly and fully report any unclaimed financial assets under their custody renders them liable for a penalty of Sh7,000, but not more than Sh50,000 for each day the report is held.

These dormant assets include forgotten wealth comprising idle bank accounts, uncollected insurance payouts, abandoned shares and dividends, and dormant mobile money accounts.

Faced with heavy penalties for holding onto dormant accounts, commercial banks, listed companies, insurance firms, and telecommunication companies have accelerated their reporting and remittance of the dormant assets.

Ufaa began receiving unclaimed financial assets from holders in 2014 and reuniting them with beneficiaries in 2016.

However, the Auditor General, in a report dated August 2025, says the rate of unification is still significantly low.

Ufaa has lined up a raft of policy changes, including easing penalties and extending the dormancy period, in a bid to mop up idle resources in the country.

The authority is seeking to extend the time listed companies and saccos have to look for the rightful owners of dividends by two years before such assets can be declared abandoned and handed over to the agency.

The Unclaimed Financial Assets (Amendment) Bill proposes that shares and dividends be presumed abandoned after five years, up from the current three years.

Dividends are deemed abandoned when payouts fail to reach intended owners due to outdated contact details, uncashed physical cheques, or inactive bank accounts.

Listed firms and saccos will now have more time to locate the owners of the financial assets before turning them over to Ufaa which has an even harder task of identifying the investors whose details it gets from third parties.

As of June this year, listed companies had submitted Sh5.3 billion to the authority, leaving more than Sh8.5 billion in unclaimed dividends in their books. Saccos had remitted Sh160 million to the authority, leaving them holding Sh16.5 billion worth of unclaimed dividends.

Ufaa is also looking to soften penalties levied on companies that have idle resources in their books to encourage them to voluntarily submit what they are holding.

The Bill proposes a penalty of 25 percent of the value of unremitted assets, a departure from the current law, which has three types of penalties.

Non-compliant companies are charged 25 percent of the unsurrendered unclaimed assets and are levied a penalty of between Sh7,000 and Sh50,000 for each day that the assets stayed before being submitted.

An interest of one percent per month is also charged on the unclaimed assets based on the assumption that the resources were earning the company a return.

Executives of the non-remitting company can also be penalised with a sum of up to Sh 1 million for the non-remittance and could be imprisoned for a period not exceeding a year.

A survey conducted last year showed unclaimed assets valued at Sh394.9 billion are yet to be remitted to Ufaa, which has only received Sh125 billion in shares and cash.

Commercial banks are said to hold the largest share of unremitted assets, at Sh133.8 billion. The manufacturing sector holds Sh24.2 billion in unremitted wages, according to the survey, while universities have Sh8.3 billion associated with caution money deposited with the institutions by first-year students.

Trader loses bid to block NBK takeover of city leather firm

The High Court has dismissed an attempt by a supplier to stop the National Bank of Kenya (NBK) and its appointed receiver manager from taking control of a leather-processing business linked to Zingo Investments.

The court ruled that Yobesh Kenya Ontiria, trading as Hillbase General Suppliers, had shown only a contractual claim for Sh26.3 million and no registered security interest capable of overriding the bank’s rights.

NBK, which is owned by Nigeria’s Access Bank Plc after being acquired from KCB Group in May 2025, is pursuing recovery of Sh733 million from the leather processor.

The dispute centres on two Zingo Investments’ properties charged to NBK, which the supplier claimed had also been offered as security for payment of his outstanding debt.

The case pits an alleged unpaid hides-and-skins supplier against a lender seeking to recover a larger debt from Zingo, whose business and assets are under receivership.

Mr Ontiria told the court that he entered into a service agreement with Zingo on February 2, 2004, for the supply of hides and skins. He said Zingo stopped paying him in 2020, leaving Sh26.3 million outstanding.

He claimed Zingo had offered two land parcels as security for payment. He alleged the company failed to disclose that the properties were charged to NBK, saying a company search document obtained during due diligence did not reveal the encumbrance.

In an application dated May 4, 2026, Mr Ontiria sought orders restraining NBK and the receiver-manager from accessing, possessing, managing, selling or disposing of the properties, factory and business.

However, the court found that the alleged business arrangement had not been converted into a registered charge or enforceable proprietary interest.

“The difficulty with the applicant’s case, however, is that no evidence has been placed before the court demonstrating that the alleged security was perfected by the creation and registration of a charge or other proprietary security in its favour,” the court said.

It added that Mr Ontiria was an unsecured creditor whose remedy lies in pursuing the debt against Zingo Investments.

The court also said that Mr Ontiria had not demonstrated ‘any registered or enforceable proprietary interest’ capable of taking priority over NBK’s securities.

According to the court, a monetary claim against Zingo arising from the alleged breach of the service agreement cannot find an injunction restraining a secured creditor from enforcing its registered securities.

NBK opposed the application, relying on registered charges over both properties and several debentures. Its representative said Zingo had persistently defaulted despite acknowledging a debt of $5.6 million (Sh730 million) in a consent recorded in 2017.

The bank said it had issued demands and notices before appointing the receiver under its contractual rights. It argued that the supplier’s unsecured claim could not prevent enforcement of securities held by the lender.

Zingo, through director Robert Njoka, denied concealing the bank’s interest. The company said it was undertaking a technical and forensic audit of its accounts, transactions and obligations.

It maintained that NBK’s facilities secured against the properties had been fully settled and that the assets were unencumbered. The court said that assertion was disputed and could not, at this stage of Mr Ontiria’s case, displace the bank’s registered securities.

The court noted that NBK’s recovery rights had featured in litigation between Zingo and the bank. In March 2024, the court dismissed Zingo’s challenge to recovery efforts, while the Court of Appeal declined to stop enforcement in January 2025.

Although Mr Ontiria was not a party to those proceedings, the court said it had to be cautious about allowing an unsecured creditor to interfere with rights arising from securities litigated previously.

“In the circumstances, I am not satisfied that the applicant has demonstrated an apparent legal or equitable right over the suit properties which has been infringed or threatened with infringement by the second defendant (NBK) and third defendant (Receiver Manager),” said the judge.

The court dismissed Mr Ontiria’s application and discharged interim orders restraining NBK and the receiver.

The ruling did not determine whether Zingo owes Hillbase the claimed Sh26.3 million. It also did not conclusively resolve Zingo’s assertion that its banking facilities had been settled.

Ardhisasa needs to make land transactions truly transparent

When Kenya launched Ardhisasa, it took an important step towards modernising one of the country’s most important public services. Significant aspects of land administration could, for the first time, be undertaken through a digital platform rather than traditional paper files.

Applications that once required multiple physical visits could increasingly be initiated online, making records more accessible and transactions more transparent.

Yet digitisation has revealed the next challenge rather than eliminated it. Anyone involved in conveyancing understands the reality. A transfer is lodged, documents are uploaded and the application enters the system.

Yet advocates and clerks still make phone calls, send emails and make inquiries to establish whether a valuation has been assigned, an assessment completed or a registration executed. The transaction is digital, but monitoring its progress often remains manual.

The challenge is institutional rather than personal. Kenya has made tremendous progress in digitising transactions but has not fully digitised workflow visibility. Participants may know when a file enters the system but struggle to determine precisely where it is, how long it has been there and what is delaying it.

This has economic consequences. Developers, manufacturers, financial institutions, pension funds and families all depend on land transactions being completed efficiently. When visibility is limited, uncertainty increases and investment decisions slow.

Georgia’s property registration model offers an important lesson. Its one-day and same-day registration services are significant not simply because they are fast, but because transactions can be monitored, timelines defined and institutional performance measured against successful completion. Kenya should establish a one-day benchmark for clean, compliant transactions while allowing complex cases involving disputes, succession, fraud or incomplete documentation additional scrutiny.

One practical reform would be a National Land Transaction Dashboard integrated into Ardhisasa.

Each transaction would receive a tracking number, with every stage visible in real time, including where it sits, when it arrived, the applicable service standard and whether it has exceeded the timeline.

Kimani raises Centum stake with Sh133m purchase

Billionaire investor John Kibunga Kimani raised his stake in Centum Investment Company to 11.51 percent in the year ended March 2026, even as the holding of the estate of Chris Kirubi declined.

Centum has disclosed in its latest annual report that Mr Kimani increased his holding from 69.4 million shares, equivalent to a 10.43 percent stake at the end of March 2025, to 76.59 million shares in the review period.

The additional shares are currently valued at Sh133.38 million based on Centum’s share price of Sh18.60 and mark the continued accumulation of the investment company’s stock by the businessman.

Mr Kimani bought the additional shares in a period when the Centum stock traded at between Sh11.23 and Sh11.86. His entire stake is now valued Sh1.42 billion.

The increase extends a sustained rise in Mr Kimani’s ownership of Centum over the past five years, with his stake more than doubling from 4.39 percent in March 2022 to 11.51 percent in March this year.

His holding stood at 1.24 percent in March 2021, before rising to 4.39 percent in 2022, 5.21 percent in 2023 and 6.87 percent in 2024. He then added more than 23.7 million shares in the year to March 2025, taking his stake to 10.43 percent.

The latest purchase takes his cumulative holding to nearly 9.3 times the 8.26 million shares he owned five years ago.

The increase in Mr Kimani’s stake comes as the ownership structure of Centum’s top shareholders undergoes a slight shift, with the estate of Christopher Kirubi remaining the largest shareholder.

The estate of Mr Kirubi fell by 810,000 shares to 205.1 million shares at the end of March 2026, giving it a 30.82 percent stake compared with the previous year when the stake was 30.94 percent.

The estate has retained its position as Centum’s largest shareholder following the death of Mr Kirubi in June 2021.

Kenya Development Corporation is the second-largest shareholder with 152.85 million shares, representing a 22.97 percent stake, unchanged from the previous year.

Mr Kimani is the third-largest shareholder, ahead of Centum Investment Company, which held 10.84 million shares or 1.63 percent through its share buyback programme.

The top three shareholders collectively controlled 65.3 percent of Centum at the end of March, up from 64.34 percent a year earlier.

The company had 665.44 million issued shares at the end of the latest financial year, with its top 10 shareholders controlling 72.11 percent of the stock.

Centum announced a dividend of Sh521 million with nearly half of it being a special distribution coming on the back of several investment exits in the financial year ended March 2026.

The dividend is made up of an ordinary payout of Sh0.42 per share amounting to Sh281 million and a special distribution of Sh0.36 per share totalling Sh240 million. Mr Kimani will receive Sh59.73 million from the distribution.

Centum proposed the dividend despite the group net profit falling by 8.4 percent to Sh743.91 million from Sh812.81 million posted in the previous financial year. At a company level, net profit rose 87 percent to Sh1.02 billion from Sh547.13 million.

Why traditional credit models must evolve to finance creative economy

Kenya’s next generation of businesses will not necessarily be built around factories, machinery, land or buildings. Some will be built around a camera, laptop, fashion label, beauty brand or creative talent.

Yet when these entrepreneurs seek capital, they are often assessed using lending models built for a different economy: what asset do you have that we can take as collateral? That excludes businesses whose value sits in intangible assets such as intellectual property, brands, audiences and future income streams.

Globally, the World Bank estimates creative industries generate about $2 trillion in revenue and support more than 50 million jobs.

Nearly 80 percent of Kenyans under 35 work in informal, low-quality jobs, making enterprise support a jobs agenda, not just an entrepreneurship one. The World Bank’s Kenya Youth Employment and Opportunities Project helped create 125,000 direct jobs and enabled beneficiaries to employ 30,000 more. Yet access remains uneven: under the Bank’s SAFER programme, youth made up 22 percent of beneficiaries but only 11 percent of loan volume.

Banks have legitimate reasons to demand financial records, repayment history and collateral. But creative enterprises can offer other evidence.

A filmmaker may hold a distribution agreement; a fashion designer may have loyal customers and confirmed orders. M-Pesa and bank transaction data can also reveal cash-flow behaviour where collateral is absent.

At 36, Jimmy Jay runs a business far removed from the single-chair barbershop he started over a decade ago. Jimmy Jay Spa combines barbering, salon and spa services with a training academy, employing about 55 people.

In December 2024, he applied to HEVA Fund’s Ota Growth Fund and received Sh10 million in October 2025. The financing enabled him to source equipment from China, clear obligations, hire 13 more staff and invest in digital marketing.

Story Zetu offers another example. In 2019, Gathoni Kimuyu and colleagues were preparing to stage Tom Mboya, inspired by the Rusinga Festival. They had the concept and audience, but not the roughly Sh4.8 million required. HEVA’s support through its Sanara programme helped bridge the gap, allowing the company to move from a 350-seat venue to one seating roughly 640. The show sold out, running 22 times and employing about 51 people including cast and crew.

There is no single financing model for the creative economy. The answer is to expand the definition of evidence. Transaction records, purchase orders, signed contracts, recurring customers, receivables, inventory and platform revenues can demonstrate an ability to generate and repay cash.

Credit guarantees can absorb some early risk, allowing lenders to build portfolios and learn from borrower behaviour. Kenya’s creative economy does not need charity.

It needs structured capital, patient investment and financial institutions willing to understand how creative businesses make money, creating a system flexible enough to finance the economy already emerging.

Kenya’s insurance industry faces opportunity to build a broader culture of protection

Last year, Kenya’s long-term, or life, insurance premiums increased by 23.1 percent to Sh235.39 billion, while general insurance, which includes motor and medical cover, grew by 11.4 percent to Sh227.17 billion.

That momentum has continued into 2026, with the Insurance Regulatory Authority reporting a sharp rise in the first quarter, led by a 36.3 percent increase in long-term gross premium income to Sh72.87 billion.

These figures tell the story of a sector that is expanding rapidly, but if you look beyond the value of premiums, a very different picture emerges. Insurance penetration fell from 2.44 percent of GDP in 2024 to 2.2 percent in 2025, well below the African average of about 3.5 percent and the global average of 7.4 percent.

That gap becomes even more striking when you look at health insurance. Medical is now the largest class of general insurance, accounting for more than 40 percent of premiums, yet private health insurance reaches barely 4 percent of Kenyans.

This situation creates the ‘coverage illusion’, where the industry appears to be growing when measured in shillings, but not when measured by the number of people who are actually protected. We are growing in shillings while shrinking in reach, ‘premium without penetration, product without trust’.

Affordability is certainly part of the problem, but the bigger challenge may be trust deficit, whether people believe insurance is worth paying for in the first place.

Research by the Association of Kenya Insurers (AKI) points to a limited understanding of what insurance covers and uncertainty over whether claims will actually be paid.

Recent difficulties involving Trident Insurance, KUSCCO Mutual and Corporate Insurance placement under statutory management serve to reinforce these concerns, leaving customers with legitimate questions about whether the policies they pay for will deliver protection when they need it most.

But trust is not shaped only by what happens when a claim is made. It is also shaped by whether the product itself feels relevant, affordable and suited to the realities of the people it is intended to protect.

Indeed, many of the products available in Kenya today are based on models developed for other markets, with assumptions that may not always fit the local context. And when insurers have to work within treaties and models developed elsewhere, they can have less room to create flexible products that respond to local needs.

That mismatch becomes even harder to address as the cost of service continues to rise. Aon, Mercer and WTW, for example, place the global medical inflation trend at 9.8 percent, the first projection below 10 percent since 2023. The Middle East and Africa, remain the highest-cost regions, with medical costs rising by between 11 percent and 15.3 percent, while Kenya is near 13.5 percent.

The local data is stark, medical claims have almost doubled in five years, rising 97 percent to Sh52.6 billion, driven by utilisation, comorbidities, lifestyle-related conditions and fraud.

In 2025, medical claims rose 17.9 percent and now absorb 51.2 percent of every shilling paid out of the general insurance claims, taking them above the halfway mark for the first time in a decade.

Insurers have repriced hard, for instance medical premiums are up 81 percent to Sh93.2 billion yet the loss ratio sits at 77.7 percent on a conservative look, forcing underwriting losses, exits and tighter terms. In other words, the cost of doing the insurance business has continued to outpace even significant increases in premiums.

Meanwhile, the widening gap between what customers pay and what their cover ultimately provides makes the question of value increasingly important and puts greater pressure on the broker to demonstrate value addition.

The broker’s mandate which seems abandoned is to provide that advocacy by understanding the client’s needs and helping negotiate the right cover in addition to standing with them when a claim arises. Over time, however, that role seems to have shrunk down to placement, just as insurance distribution.

This can easily be interpreted to the space having been commoditised. Recently, telcos, banks and bancassurance channels have been licensed to distribute insurance and are estimated to account for about a tenth of premiums.

In such a space, the only ground left is advocacy, expertise, collaboration and outcomes that is owning turnaround from placement to claim, making wellness and prevention the bedrock, and feeding client feedback into design for genuine need and ultimate cover hyperpersonalisation.

The true value goes back to traditional responsibility of representing the client throughout the life of the policy. Prevention must finally pay through innovative reward models that align reward for the claim that never happens. This is the strongest lever to re-orient and fix the current trend. Aon maps from its recent publication that technology will reshape employee benefits within five years.

The current buzzword is AI adoption. Realistically AI arrives in two waves that the mundane/back office automation i.e. pre-authorization, real-time claims adjudication and payment, assessments and auto linkages to garages in a matter of minutes not days, then the complex bit which is infinite but as an example predictive risk, flexible informed pricing and personalized underwriting, chronic-care navigation etc.

The survivors are those that will intentionally use AI to say yes faster and keep members satisfied, not to deny faster.

The next client demands it, demographics have shifted and the current client buys transparent, embedded bite-sized cover from brands they trust and abandons any that treat a claim as a fight.

The answer to a squeezed market is not sharper undercutting but a deeper solution, an end-to-end employee-benefits stack spanning from payroll, insurance, pension, statutory advisory all with administration outsourcing bouquet as the connective tissue that unlocks growth and frees HR to focus on development of people and culture.

Regulators can accelerate it with global practice as the benchmark that is consumer-outcome regulation, published claims and turnaround benchmarks, curb on undercutting, prevention incentives promotion, innovation sandboxes, data portability and professionalised intermediation.

AKI’s 2026 Customer Service Charter i.e. expectation of a claim to be acknowledged within 24 hours, a dedicated handler, published performance etc. is exactly that floor; applied market-wide it would rebuild trust faster than any product launch.

The new dawn is not a product or a platform but the redefinition of a mandate: from placing risk to advocacy.

Penetration below the African average is no verdict on demand, the demand sits in the 96 percent private health cover never reaches.

Closing that gap is the sector’s largest opportunity, and it belongs to whoever remembers the broker’s oldest job: to stand on the member’s side.

Why East-West pipeline disruption matters for Kenya

Kenya’s fuel supply security is facing fresh challenges after Saudi Arabia was forced to shut down an alternative pipeline that it has used to export the commodity for the better part of this year after the Middle East war paralysed movement across the Strait of Hormuz.

The closure of the East-West pipeline was announced on Friday following drone attacks that damaged parts of the critical infrastructure in Riyadh and Medina.

Saudi Arabia is the world’s biggest exporter of oil, and its inability to supply this commodity due to closure of the East-West pipeline and the Strait of Hormuz will rattle the globe, choke fuel supply and send prices skyrocketing.

What is the East-West pipeline?

It is a 1,200-kilometre (km) (746-mile) pipeline, also known as the Petroline, that carries roughly four to five million barrels of oil per day (bpd) and links Saudi Arabia’s major oil-producing fields in Abqaiq with the Red Sea port of Yanbu.

Saudi Arabia built the facility in the 1980s during the Iran-Iraq War, to help the country bypass maritime threats arising from the conflict.

The East-West pipeline is the primary alternative oil pipeline that Saudi Arabia relies on to bypass the Persian Gulf, which is now impassable due to the US-Iran conflict.

Prices of Brent crude, the primary benchmark for fuel prices globally, hit $107 (Sh13,865.06) per barrel on Tuesday, reflecting the impact of the US-Iran attacks that have intensified in the past few weeks.

Closure of the pipeline could compel Saudi Arabia to ship the four-five million barrels of oil through the Strait of Hormuz, a not so welcome scenario given the current paralysis of the critical maritime chokepoint.

How big is the damage to the pipeline and how long will it remain closed?

The Saudi government did not give an official statement on the extent of the damage inflicted by drones. However, satellite photos from media outlets showed at least one pumping station was charred and badly damaged.

The duration of the closure remains unknown, but unnamed sources within the government said that damage could take upto six weeks to repair, but could be fixed sooner and pumping could resume partially while repairs are ongoing.

How critical is it to Saudi Arabia’s fuel exports in the wake of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz?

The pipeline became Saudi Arabia’s alternative route to ship fuel from the oilfields in Abqaiq on the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea without relying on Gulf shipping routes. It is estimated that the pipeline has been carrying about four percent of the global fuel supply, helping to significantly ease the impact of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Oil buyers and traders in Saudi Arabia reckon that the country will run out of oil stocks available for export if it does not restart the drone-damaged major pipeline to the Red Sea within days.

What are some of the impacts of the closure of the East-West pipeline?

Closure of the pipeline could potentially force Saudi Aramco, the operator of the pipeline, to look for alternative routes to ship out fuel.

Forced rerouting of fuel exports from Saudi Arabia will trigger steep freight charges, besides the skyrocketing prices of the commodity due to the Middle East war.

Kenya, which relies on Saudi Aramco and two other Gulf oil majors for fuel supplies, is now staring at uncertain months ahead.

On Monday, Energy and Petroleum Cabinet Secretary Opiyo Wandayi owned up to the jitters, saying that closure of the pipeline will significantly impact fuel prices.

What happens to Kenya and other importers of refined fuel now that the East-West pipeline has been shut down?

The pipeline has been critical in helping Saudi Arabia to increase exports to Kenya despite the disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz.

Official data shows that Saudi’s exports to Kenya rose to Sh24.60 billion in March, Sh31.50 billion in April and Sh43.69 billion in May, compared to Sh13.50 billion and Sh11.35 billion in January and February this year, before the outbreak of the war.

Has Kenya found herself in a similar state of supply uncertainty in recent times?

Closure of the East-West pipeline marks the second time since the start of the US-Iran war that Kenya’s security of supply has been threatened.

In March this year, a vessel that was loaded at the Jebel Ali port in Dubai was unable to sail to the port of Mombasa, and this forced Kenya to seek back-up cargoes to avert a fuel shortage.

Saudi Aramco disclosed that it has been forced to load fuel at ports in Europe and India in order to avoid the Strait of Hormuz.

An extended shutdown of the East-West pipeline could see the company stick to alternative ports in order to ensure uninterrupted fuel supply to Kenya.

Has the East-West pipeline been in the past and were there any major disruptions?

Last week’s drone attack was the third in seven years, with the first being in May 2019. The attacks led to minor damages at at least three pumping stations.

The pipeline was also attacked in April this year, months into the US-Iran war, with minor damages to pumping stations forcing Saudi Arabia to cut supply by an estimated 700,000bpd.

But the two attacks in May 2019 and April this year did not trigger a prolonged shutdown of the pipeline. Last week’s drone attacks are the first that look set to keep the facility out of use for an extended period.

New legal battle as Treasury’s sale of 15pc Safaricom stake nullified

The High Court has quashed the Government’s sale of its 15 percent stake in Safaricom to Vodacom Group after finding that material information regarding the transaction was concealed from the public.

A three-judge bench held that the deal, which was completed on June 30, 2026, had been presented as a partial divestiture when in reality it amounted to a takeover that gave Vodacom effective control of Safaricom.

The court declared the divestiture invalid, null and void, quashed all approvals relating to the transaction and ordered that the 15 percent stake be restored to the Government of Kenya on behalf of the people.

‘A declaration is hereby made that the partial divestiture of the 15 percent of the Government of Kenya shares in Safaricom PLC was a camouflage merger or acquisition and takeover of Safaricom PLC and is in contravention of the Constitution and the law,’ said the court.

The government says it will appeal against the decision, but its attempts to convince the court to suspend the judgment pending the appeal were rejected. The court directed the parties, including the Attorney General, Safaricom and Vodacom, to file a substantive application seeking a stay of the judgment.

The court noted that under the arrangement, the South African multinational’s ownership in the Kenyan telco rose to 55 percent from 39.9 percent after taking full ownership of the investment vehicle Vodafone Kenya, through which it holds the shares in the Nairobi Securities Exchange-listed firm.

The judges found that this critical information was not adequately disclosed to the public, the Cabinet or Parliament.

‘A declaration is hereby made that the partial divestiture of the 15 per cent of the Government of Kenya shares in Safaricom PLC was marred by obscurities on the proposed buyer, misrepresentations and concealment of material information on the nature and effects of the partial divestiture in violation of the principles of integrity and transparency,’ said the court.

The court also raised concerns about national security, noting that Safaricom operates critical infrastructure, including election transmission systems, government payment platforms and mobile money services, and stores the personal data of millions of Kenyans.

‘In the circumstances, even with regulatory safeguards, there is no guarantee that would prevent foreign and external influence or interference with the governance systems, personal security and data,’ the court said.

The judges added that any perception of external influence over election transmission systems could undermine public confidence in the democratic process. They held that transferring effective control of such infrastructure to a foreign entity without a prior national security assessment violated the Government’s constitutional obligations.

The Government had sold the stake for Sh204.3 billion at Sh34 per share and also received Sh40.2 billion through the sale of future dividend rights attached to its remaining 20 percent shareholding.

The transaction was approved in March, but it was delayed by a court order, which was lifted in June by the Court of Appeal after it ruled that the deal could be reversed if it was proved that there were anomalies.

The court faulted the Government for failing to competitively identify a strategic investor and found that the pricing process was arbitrary.

While the Government argued that the Sh34 share price was based on an independent valuation conducted by KCB Investment Bank and reflected a market premium, the judges held that the transaction failed the rationality test.

They also rejected the argument that selling future dividend income was a legitimate way of financing infrastructure projects, finding that converting a perpetual income stream into a one-off payment deprived future generations of the benefits of a public asset.

The court also found that although Parliament conducted hearings in 30 counties, crucial transaction documents, including the share purchase agreement and dividend rights agreement, were never made available to the public.

‘We are thus in consonance with the petitioners that material information and documents were concealed from the public, Cabinet and the National Assembly,’ the judges said.

The court held that public participation must be more than a procedural exercise but must be ‘real, purposive and meaningful.’

The bench found that the process was undermined by non-disclosure of material information, rendering Parliament’s approval constitutionally defective.

‘In light of our findings above, we hold that there was no reasonable, meaningful and purposive public participation in respect of the divestiture, thus violating Articles 10 and 118 of the Constitution,’ the judges said.

The judges further rejected arguments that the matter had been overtaken by events after Parliament approved the transaction in March, holding that the petitions challenged the constitutional foundation of the deal itself.

They also dismissed claims that existing regulators, including the Communications Authority and the Office of the Data Protection Commissioner, provided sufficient safeguards, saying regulatory oversight could not replace proactive measures to address national security risks before control of a strategic asset was relinquished.

The wealthy Kenyans spending more than Sh100,000 on grown plants

Would you spend Sh144,000 on three trees? Last Friday, someone did at Planty Kenya, a small shop in Lavington, Nairobi. Three European olive trees, each at ShSh48,000, left the shelves in a single morning.

“These plants don’t stay in the shop for long. By the end of the week, not a single one will be left. Most of them are pre-ordered, and the rest are for walk-in customers,” said Lucy Kioi, who runs the shop.

While most plant shops in Nairobi sell seedlings and common shrubs, Lucy sells plants that take years, sometimes decades, to grow into what they are: mature olive trees, bonsai shaped over a lifetime of pruning, hybrid roses grafted onto thick trunks, and magnolias already old enough to flower.

She imports most of her stock from Europe and China, and when a shipment lands, it rarely lasts long. The batch that arrived less than 24 hours before we visited had 201 plants across 20 varieties, and most of them were already paid for.

Ask Lucy why anyone would spend Sh100,000 on a tree, and her answer comes down to this: people are not really paying for the plant itself, but for the years of waiting they get to skip.

The most expensive

A 200-centimetre olive tree costs around Sh100,000, while a smaller 120-centimetre one goes for Sh30,000, and a five-year-old magnolia sells for Sh85,000. A particularly thick, mature olive from an earlier shipment sold for Sh120,000, with the most expensive olive Lucy has ever sold going for Sh150,000.

Bonsai take years of training to develop their signature shape, and the current selection is priced at around Sh39,000, though a Juniperus chinensis bonsai from an earlier batch sold for Sh63,000.

“When someone has spent Sh50,000 on a plant, they become very invested in it,” Lucy said, adding that they want to know how to take care of it, where to put it, and how to keep it healthy.

Some plants come with a bonus: a mature calamondin, a cross between a mandarin orange and a kumquat, can already be bearing fruit when it arrives, and the same goes for olive trees, which will eventually produce olives that can be pressed into oil. Buyers end up with a fully grown ornamental plant instead of a young one that could take years to bear fruit.

Even Buddha’s Hand, a citrus fruit known for its odd, finger-like shape and cultural significance, sells for Sh10,000 for the fruit alone, while a pachira, more commonly called a money tree, goes for about Sh29,000.

Around 40 percent of Lucy’s customers are repeat buyers, and rather than shopping out of necessity, they tend to be hunting for something new.

“They want something different,” she said. “Some want a statement piece for their home or apartment, while others are looking for a particular variety they have seen online or encountered while travelling.”

Her customers range from apartment dwellers with barely a balcony to homeowners with large compounds and commercial clients furnishing offices or hotels.

Risky business

Getting a tree from a farm abroad into a shop in Lavington is complicated, and the process starts well before the plants ever touch Kenyan soil.

The Kenya Plant Health Inspectorate Service requires anyone importing plant material to get a permit before the shipment even leaves its country of origin, and every consignment also needs a phytosanitary certificate from the exporting country, along with, depending on the species, a permit under the international treaty covering endangered plants and animals.

“Imported plant material is inspected, and consignments without the required permits or documentation can be refused entry, destroyed or re-shipped at the owner’s cost,” Lucy said.

Even the soil is an issue, since plants cannot travel in the dirt they were originally grown in, as that soil can carry pests or diseases across borders, so instead they are packed in materials like coco peat for the trip and repotted once they arrive in Kenya.

Minimum capital

None of this comes cheap. Lucy says the minimum capital needed for a single import order is about Sh400,000, though most orders run between Sh600,000 and Sh1.5 million, depending on the type and size of the shipment. Sea freight is cheaper, but it takes much longer, and some plants need an extra month or two to recover once they land, which is why Lucy ships by air instead- a journey that takes about three days.

In January 2024, on her very first import order, Lucy brought in more than 100 bougainvillaea plants at about Sh1.2 million, for a batch that customers had already placed orders for.

“The plants arrived looking healthy, but they died within three days,” she said. She moved the survivors to her home in Tigoni, outside Nairobi, without expecting much. Three months later, they came back to life.

“When you are importing plants, anything can happen,” Lucy said. “They can leave the supplier looking beautiful and healthy, but by the time they arrive, the situation could be completely different. You just have to be ready for those risks.”

Could these plants just be grown here? Lucy thinks local propagation could eventually cut down the cost and risk of constant importing, though she does not see it replacing imports any time soon, since training a young plant into the size and shape customers want takes years on its own.

“For now, imports remain important because they provide the variety and maturity that customers want,” she added.