Category: Business Daily

One of the most famous places in Sweetwaters Serena Camp is the fireplace at Suni Bar. The barman lit it promptly after 6:30 pm when the chill descended in Nanyuki’s Ol Pajeta conservancy.

Directly facing the fireplace are two sets of comfortable sofas which go quickly. Once they arrive, the bar area, a conduit from the main entrance through to the restaurant, is suddenly populated by guests coming back from game drives, sitting down to their teas or pre-dinner cocktails, and sharing anecdotes about their day with the animals.

Some guests stand over a big book where they note down the animals they saw during game drives. The book is a treasure catalogue of wildlife. We stumbled upon lions mating during one of the night game drives.

A rare and exciting find, yes, but also an embarrassing experience for the king of the jungle, only because he lasts only as long as you can cough. I was tempted to comment on the book, but that would have been seditious to the king.

The lodge is full of tourists with their cameras and game gear, hats, and other items, seated in small groups around the fire, sipping tea. A guy with a guitar waltzes about the room, plucking a tune. The man is truly, truly gifted. His voice possesses lemons and honey.

The first night we missed the fireplace sofas, so we sat at the bar drinking hot toddies and talking about the things we loved about the place: the view of the conservancy from the rooms where we could see elephants, rhinos, buffalo and all manner of small animals; the watering hole where animals gather at night, making all manner of noises.

The second night, we got there early and managed to secure one side of the sofa. We ordered whiskies while a couple came and joined us on the opposite sofa.

A fireplace is only charming when it’s shared. The fire crackled and simmered, creating both heat and ambience. The couple scrolled through their phones, going over photos they had taken.

President William Ruto is banking on two sovereign funds to deliver Sh5 trillion worth of projects over the next 10 years, highlighting the government’s resolve to shift from funding infrastructure projects using debt.

During an address to Parliament on Thursday, the President stated that funding for projects in the transport, energy, agriculture and education sectors, would be sourced from the Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF) and the National Infrastructure Fund (NIF), rather than borrowing or relying on taxes.

The government has lined up projects valued at Sh5 trillion across the sectors, including the construction of hundreds of dams, tarmacking and dualling of roads, extension of the standard gauge railway (SGR) line from Naivasha to Malaba, growing electricity generation and boosting educational research.

The Ministry of Roads and Transport has already mapped out 2,500 highways for dualling and 28,000km of roads to be tarmacked in the next 10 years, with the launch of the dualling of 170km Rironi-Naivasha-Nakuru-Mau Summit Road scheduled for next week.

Other roads set for dualling include Muthaiga Kiambu-Ndumberi, Machakos Junction-Mariakani, Mau Summit-Kericho-Kisumu, Kisumu-Busia, Mau Summit-Eldoret-Malaba, Kericho-Kisii-Migori-Isebania, Nakuru-Nyahururu-Karatina and Nakuru-Nyahururu-Karatina, President Ruto said.

The Ministry of Roads and Transport has already mapped out 2,500 highways for dualling and 28,000km of roads to be tarmacked in the next 10 years, with the launch of the dualling of 170km Rironi-Naivasha-Nakuru-Mau Summit Road scheduled for next week.

Other roads set for dualling include Muthaiga Kiambu-Ndumberi, Machakos Junction-Mariakani, Mau Summit-Kericho-Kisumu, Kisumu-Busia, Mau Summit-Eldoret-Malaba, Kericho-Kisii-Migori-Isebania, Nakuru-Nyahururu-Karatina and Nakuru-Nyahururu-Karatina, President Ruto said.

He said the government wants to fund the multi-billion-dollar projects using the SWF and the NIF, highlighting the challenge to keep financing infrastructure development through borrowing and additional taxes.

The SWF will pool monies generated from Kenya’s natural resources, such as mining and petroleum products, and will have three components: a stabilisation unit, an infrastructure investment arm and a segment focused on savings.

On the other hand, the NIF will source capital from the sale of state-owned enterprises, private capital through PPPs and other domestic sources.

‘Estimates indicate that achieving these four priorities will require at least Sh5 trillion. How shall we finance these transformative projects, and do so sustainably? The answer lies in two key financing vehicles: the NIF and the SWF,’ the President said. Other than infrastructure projects in the transport sector, the government has a plan to deliver 50 mega dams and more than 200 medium and small dams, whose funding will come from the two funds.

The government plans to add at least 2.5 million acres of land under irrigation in a span of five to seven years, with targeted dams including the High Grand Falls and Arror, which had previously been halted.

‘The Ministry of Water, Sanitation and Irrigation, alongside all relevant agencies, has already mapped the precise locations of these dams. These projects span the breadth of our Republic; from High Grand Falls, a mega dam on river Daua in Mandera, Soin Koru in Kisumu, Narosura in Narok and Arror in Elgeyo-Marakwet,’ President Ruto said.

Arror and High Grand Falls dams, which the government plans to fund using the sovereign funds, have previously faced compliance and legal challenges and their construction had been halted.

The government also plans to generate an additional 10,000 MW of electricity in the next seven years with the President noting that despite an installed capacity of 3,300 MW, ‘the intermittence of solar and wind means our firm capacity is only 2,300 MW – far below what the Kenya of tomorrow will require.’

In the Education sector, the government plans to actualise the national research fund by growing research funding from the current level of 0.8 percent to two percent of gross domestic product..

The current funding levels have left shortfalls of Sh180 billion, with the President indicating that he established a dedicated State Department for Science Research and Innovation, in order to scale up Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics courses in Kenya’s education system and help actualise the two percent research fund needed.

‘… we should grow the fund to Sh1 trillion over the next 10 years. We will mobilise domestic public resources, private investment, venture capital and other private-sector financing to drive this effort,’ he said.

Rabobank is a global food and agriculture bank based out of the Netherlands. The financier runs one of 10 Central Bank of Kenya authorised representative offices of foreign lenders in the country.

The Business Daily talked to Els Kamphof, a member of the bank’s managing board, who provided insights into the role played by the Nairobi rep office in building resilient food systems in the region.

What’s the day-to-day operation like for a foreign bank representative office like yourselves? Our Nairobi office is part of a commitment to developing our business in Africa, working closely with the headquarters in the Netherlands.

Our staff on the ground are fully involved in the commercial business of connecting with clients locally from the bank, our foundation and our rural fund. The rep office gives us boots on the ground and local experience, which makes the difference for us.

This is the 11th year in this market, what would you say has been your impact/achievements so far?

From a global perspective, Africa was the first continent that Rabobank ventured into 40 to 45 years ago when we began international operations, initially through the foundation where we used earnings from the group to make impact globally. We have worked with small-holder farmers, cooperatives and have bought stakes in banks throughout Africa.

We opened this representative office in 2014 on the same note serving corporate clients in food and agriculture which are active on the continent as a global food and agriculture bank. Supporting commodity finance is very key for us.

Your Nairobi representative office also serves a regional role, tell us how you came about making the choice to base the hub here?

We wanted to have a presence in Africa, and we are happy with our choice of Nairobi. There are adequate talents here and there is also a vibe here.

What has been your working relationship with local banks?

We have previously had a working relationship with the Co-operative Bank of Kenya. We also have consulting projects with other banks, but our only stake is in Equity Bank, and we are very happy with that.

Your focus on food and agriculture finance makes you quite unique, how did this come about?

It connects with the roots that we have, having started as an agriculture cooperative in the Netherlands. This is who we are, and this is the knowledge we have, and this is what we want to do as well in Africa to create resilient food systems.

We have a lot of information and knowledge… for example with climate change we could advise farmers on alternative crops and this information is extremely valuable. If we would say SME finance, we would not be any different from any other bank.

With agriculture making huge swaths of countries’ economies in Africa, is it an automatic choice to base yourselves on the continent?

We have a presence in all the different regions, but each region is different from climate conditions to culture. The small-holder system is very typical for Africa, which requires a unique approach to other markets.

Given the population growth expected, it’s so important that food and agriculture develop on the continent. We bring clients together from different regions and we share knowledge and we hope that these clients collaborate.

What’s fascinating for this region is that the bulk of economic and population growth in the world going forward will happen here. 65 percent of all unused arable land is in Africa. There is a big opportunity to make this land suitable and start growing commodities on it. I am convinced the food and agriculture sector has so much potential to grow.

You have a foundation and a rural fund in addition to the commercial bank operations, how does this all come together?

A co-operative bank doesn’t have to serve any shareholders which is great. If you generate profits, you can use this for society and that’s how the fund came about. We don’t have dividends to pay to shareholders, so this is our co-operative dividend.

We also started a foundation in which we put a percentage of our profits every year and we use this funding to promote agriculture in developing countries and among small social entrepreneurs in the Netherlands.

We drive healthy net profits for the bank so we can use that beyond banking to invest in resilient food systems. This gives us a broader role beyond any other regular commercial bank which is fantastic. You compete with all other banks, and if you do well, there is funding available to make a difference in society.

We have seen some or at least one representative office wanting to convert their current license to a full-fledged bank, would you go down the same route?

It would depend very much on the scale of how food and agriculture develop. We make a lot of impact already which is good for Kenya and Africa, but I don’t think we would be currently suited to be a fully-fledged commercial bank in Kenya. Our aim is to make an impact beyond banking which we already do. I would never exclude anything but at this point in time I would say I am very happy with how we are positioned.

How do you approach competition among your peers (licensed representatives of foreign banks)?

I would say they are actually not our competitors as our offering is so different. We both come across the same clients but what we offer is different.

What is to come in terms of your impact in Kenya and Africa?

We continue to tap talents from Kenya and Africa through our graduate programme where we train young graduates on food and agriculture and they bring that knowledge back home. I believe in the potential of this sector, and we want to be there.

I’ve just returned from Dreamforce 2025 in San Francisco, where global leaders were imagining what comes next in the ‘agentic era’, a future where AI systems don’t just follow instructions but plan, reason, and act independently to help organisations achieve complex goals. What struck me most was how deeply relevant these conversations are for Africa today.

Across the continent, businesses and governments face a familiar challenge: expectations are rising while budgets and teams remain constrained. We’re being asked to deliver more, to more people, with less.

AI offers a way to bridge that gap, not as a shiny new tool, but as a reliable partner that can take on the heavy lifting, handle repetitive tasks, enhance decision-making, and free our people to focus on work that truly moves us forward.

But to unlock that potential, technology alone is not enough. African organisations need the right internal functions, people, processes, and guardrails, to ensure AI is deployed responsibly, safely, and at scale.

From where I sit, supporting teams across the continent, these five functions are essential for any African business preparing for this new era, and will determine whether Africa prospers in the agentic era:

AI agent management: Turning ideas into action

Every organisation experimenting with AI is asking the same question: Where do we start?

AI agent management provides the answer. This function defines where AI can drive measurable value, from improving service delivery to streamlining operations to enabling financial inclusion. We’re already seeing this in action: Absa, for instance, is using AI to deliver faster, more accessible banking for millions.

AI risk and governance: Building trust from the start

AI can only be transformative if it is trusted, which requires strong safety barriers from the very start.

Yet Africa faces a unique challenge: most global AI models are trained on datasets that overlook African languages, cultural nuances, and local contexts. When systems fail to moderate hate speech or misinterpret African dialects, the consequences are not theoretical.

This makes governance non-negotiable. Strong oversight, from bias testing and transparency reviews to data protection and continuous monitoring, ensures AI remains ethical, safe, and aligned with our values. Governance isn’t red tape; it’s the foundation of trust.

AI operations management: Scaling for dependability

The reality is that most, almost 95 percent of AI pilots fail. Often, it’s because companies try to build everything from scratch, only to run into security risks, bad data or runaway costs.

In Africa, failed pilots are even more painful because budgets are tighter. The AI operations management function prevents this. It handles the day-to-day running of AI systems, by deploying them properly, keeping them stable, monitoring performance and making sure they stay secure.

At the heart of this function is the AI platform engineer, whose job is technical and hands-on: they connect agents, data and applications into a single, reliable workflow. They make sure the system runs smoothly around the clock and can deploy digital labour when demand grows.

AI Workforce Training and Development: Bridging tech and talent

Technology only works when people understand how and when to use it. This is where the training function becomes critical. A significant digital literacy gap exists, with only half of African countries including computer skills in their school curricula.

The AI learning and development function must prioritise structured training, moving from basic AI awareness to role-specific capability development, ensuring employees are prepared for the ‘human-agent collaboration’ that defines the future of work.

Salesforce’s latest Slack Workforce Index shows people using AI are 81 percent more satisfied with their job than those who aren’t, making training a critical function for talent attraction and retention.

AI workforce integration: Augmenting human potential

Ultimately, AI is at its best when it elevates, not replaces, human ingenuity. This function focuses on fostering seamless, productive collaboration between human employees and AI systems. The goal is to augment human capabilities, enabling employees to focus on creative and strategic tasks and reduce friction.

By automating repetitive and time-consuming activities, AI can free employees to focus on high-value work and strategic initiatives.

We’ve seen real-world success, such as Secret Escapes increasing autonomous resolution rates from 10 percent to 30 percent, which allows human employees to focus on higher-value interactions. The AI collaboration strategist defines the essential interaction points and optimises collaboration models to ensure AI enhances our human ingenuity.

Africa’s opportunity in the agentic era

The move toward agentic systems isn’t just another tech upgrade. It changes how work actually gets done. It redefines productivity, service delivery, and even how governments engage with citizens. For Africa, it’s a real opportunity because it has the potential to deliver better public services, faster responses, and the ability to grow without inflating limited budgets.

But real transformation requires structure. These five functions, from governance to workforce integration, give organisations the structure they need to use AI safely and effectively. Without them, AI remains guesswork, but with them, it becomes something that can genuinely support growth.

After witnessing many AI success stories at Dreamforce, one thought kept surfacing: while success and profit are noble causes, Africa has a duty to set the bar higher and use AI as an opportunity to elevate its people and solve real human problems.

Can we, as Africans, afford to miss this opportunity to make meaningful change on a continent that knows too well the price we pay for being left behind? Our AI success starts with each of us taking up the responsibility to participate, develop ourselves, train our people, rethink our workflows, and place skills where they’ll make the biggest difference.

We need AI solutions that reflect our values and serve our people.

From a remastered collection of hits by an icon of Kenyan music, to a new album by a rising star of Afrobeats, and a fresh twist to timeless Christmas songs, here are five albums that have dropped on streaming platforms this month that are well worth adding to your playlists.

The first career retrospective from one of the all-time greats of Kenyan music contains 17 of the best singles of Joseph Kamaru’s illustrious career remastered from the original tapes. The UK label Disciples has released this album, digitally and on vinyl, with the assistance of Kamaru’s grandson KMRU who is himself also a musician.

There is a very interesting mix of musical styles that illustrate the musical versatility of Kamaru, from the soul-funk groove of Kenya Kurungara to the pure benga of Gari La Trela, Karolina and the deeply emotional J.M. Kariuki released in the wake of the politician’s assassination in 1975.

The physical copy of the album comes with detailed liner notes by the Kenyan scholar Maina wa Mutonya who has studied and written extensively on the works of Joseph Kamaru, and Italy-based music journalist Megan Iacobini de Fazio.

Mario

Mood Swings

Mario has come a long way since he burst on the scene as 15-year-old in 2002 with the classic Just a Friend, the track that turned him into an R and B sensation, and the follow up, the Grammy nominated Let Me Love You.

His latest release, an 8-track EP that dropped on November 14, 2025, lives up to the singer-songwriter, actor and entrepreneur’s trademark sleek R and B style.

True to the name of the EP, the songs are a mix of up-tempo dance tunes like the title track and some silky-smooth, romantic numbers like Home, Chosen and Friends featuring a verse by R and B star Ty Dolla $ign.

The outstanding tune on the EP is the silky Nobody but Us, a catchy mid-tempo arrangement where Mario delivers his tried and tested vocal style that has put him in the top league of contemporary male performers.

Afrobeats has become a global movement and the success of heavy hitters like Burna Boy, Davido, Wizkid, and Ayra Starr has opened the doors for a steady stream of new, hungry Nigerian acts. Among the biggest of the new crop of artistes in the genre is Seyi Vibez (he has already collaborated with both Burna and Ayra).

The 25-year-old singer-songwriter from Lagos State who built his career with hard-hitting street rhythms, combines Yoruba music from the 1960s, with cutting edge Afropop sounds on his new album Fuji Moto.

Fuji music has traditionally been popular in the North West of Nigeria but thanks to stars like Asake, Fireboy DML and now Seyi Vibez, the genre has been acquired a contemporary edge

The standout tracks on the album are How are You, which contains an interpolation of Bobby Caldwell’s soul classic What You Won’t Do for Love, and the infectious Macho featuring American rapper NLE Choppa.

Another big-name US rapper French Montana jumps on a remix of the superb Pressure, while the high energy Fuji Party features Nigerian Afrobeats star Olamide.

If you are looking for a song to lift up your mood then turn on the appropriately named Happy Song whose choral refrain is divine. As Seyi told Apple Music in February 2025, ‘Whether we are good, or we are struggling, we are hungry, or we are in any kind of position we are in as African children, we are always happy.’

The dismal science is a derogatory, informal moniker for economics.

Usually used in critique of the field’s methodologies or policy influence in the face of current economic challenges, the term was coined by Scottish anti-abolitionist Thomas Carlyle in 1849 in a bitter attack on classical economists’ arguments for the emancipation of black slaves.

I had the difficult but pleasant task of explaining the economy, current business conditions and taxes, on radio and television, last Monday morning.

In my mother tongue! Well, there are many concepts on the subject for which I could not find Kikuyu words. It is likely, therefore, that I performed dismally, leaving more questions than answers!

A social science, economics studies how societies manage limited resources to produce, distribute, and consume goods and services. It analyses the choices that individuals, businesses, and governments make in the face of scarcity. It looks at the behaviour of individuals and firms (microeconomics), and the economy as a whole (macroeconomics).

For moral and other reasons you cannot use laboratory experimentation like say in physics or chemistry. However, economists routinely design clever ‘experiments’ to explain behaviour.

For instance, does tribalism have economic roots? The big ideas in economics are scarcity, supply and demand, costs, benefits, and incentives.

Scarcity arises because human beings have unlimited wants, but limited resources. This forces individuals, families, counties and nations, to make choices about how to allocate what they have. Since the entire county cannot fit in one decision-making meeting, we elect MCAs to make the county choices. Ditto the National Assembly.

Is Kenya living beyond its means?, the popular interviewer asked me. We seem unable to debate the expenditure side of the budget, I replied.

Our elected representatives pass budgets with ever-growing deficits. That means more borrowing. Oddly, they then turn around and criticise government borrowing.

Availability of products or services and our desires for them, is supply and demand. Their interaction determines market prices. Too much demand creates inflation.

The classic solution to inflation is to increase the cost of money – slowing down credit to persons and private sector – thus reduce demand, to create a balance with supply.

In big English, the government effort to create balance between supply and demand is called monetary policy. Upon succeeding in taming inflation, we make money cheaper, increasing demand. But as we have seen in recent times, commercial banks, who are the transmission mechanism for those efforts, do not always play ball.

Incentives motivate individuals and businesses to act in a certain way, influencing economic decisions. Costs and benefits is the idea of evaluating the trade-offs involved in any decision, weighing the advantages against the disadvantages.

If you are a bank manager, it is much easier to lend to government, which is relatively risk free, than to look for small businesses in Gikomba to lend to.

Inflation, economic growth, unemployment, and public policy affect the entire economy and not just an individual firm, hence the term macroeconomics.

The behaviour of individual economic agents such as households and firms, and their resource allocation decisions are often based on feelings particularly trust and confidence.

When individuals and firms believe that the future will be bright – consumer and business confidence – they will tend to increase consumption and investments, and borrow to do so. Conversely, when they are pessimistic about the future, they slow down.

This is true even when actual data, such as the level of inflation or the stability of the exchange rate, may suggest otherwise. So today, the macros are right, but sentiment has stubbornly refused to improve. As a result, we have no money in our pockets, and find difficult to believe that inflation is down.

Economics has wide application. It is centrestage in finance, business, engineering, politics, psychology, and health. Its ideas shape our understanding of choices, how markets function, and what factors influence the overall economic health of our republic.

Today, government is criticised for crowding out the private sector in the credit market, and inability to fix the failed credit transmission mechanism.

Are we overtaxed, the interviewer asked? Though pay-slips are feeling the weight, as a nation we are not.

The proportion of national income going to taxes is 14 percent, compared to Uganda where it is 13.6 percent. Some of the highest tax-to-GDP ratios in Africa are in Tunisia (33.5 percent), South Africa (26 percent), and Morocco (22 percent). The average for Africa is 16 percent, Asia-Pacific (19.8 percent) and OECD (34.1 percent).

Safaricom has received regulatory approval to issue a Sh40 billion public bond for infrastructure upgrades in Kenya and Ethiopia, making it the largest corporate bond to be listed at the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE).

The telecoms operator will inform investors on Thursday that it will issue the bond in tranches, offering a further boost to Kenya’s corporate bond market-where East Africa Breweries Limited (EABL) has just raised Sh16.7 billion.

The firm will issue the first tranche once it has agreed on the pricing and tenure of the bond, with the finer details of the security yet to be approved by the Capital Market Authority (CMA).

Safaricom is seeking billions of shillings to broaden its 4G and 5G networks as it ramps up its data business to offset a decline in mobile calls, where it has seen a small revenue fall due to saturation.

Data is one of Safaricom’s fastest-growing revenue lines and it hopes that increased smartphone usage will boost the business further.

In Ethiopia, the telecoms operator plans to boost its network expansion and ease cash flow for the subsidiary where it owns a 53.7 percent stake.

‘Under the MTN [medium-term note] Programme, the company may issue various forms of notes, including green notes, social notes or sustainability notes,’ the firm says in a regulatory notice that will be made public tomorrow.

‘The issuance of tranche 1 is subject to the determination of the final commercial terms of the offer and approval by the CMA of the corresponding pricing supplement.’

The telecoms operator closed its half-year period ending September 2025 with a debt of Sh117 billion, including Sh61.2 billion in long-term borrowings and Sh55 billion in short-term borrowings.

Earlier, it tapped a Sh30 billion sustainability-linked loan or green bond from a consortium of local banks, including KCB, Absa Bank Kenya, Standard Chartered Bank Kenya and Stanbic Bank Kenya.

A green bond is a type of fixed-income instrument that is specifically earmarked to raise money for climate and environmental projects.

Safaricom’s debt and finance costs have increased recently, compounded by capital spending at its new business in Ethiopia.

It betted on the facility to accelerate its transition to becoming a technology company, reduce its carbon footprint, monitor its social impact and enhance its progress on gender diversity.

Safaricom will likely deploy proceeds from the bond to meet its growth targets for the financial year ending in March 2026, which include scaling 4G and 5G devices in Kenya and financing its commercial scaling activity in Ethiopia.

The telco’s capital expenditure for the period is estimated at between Sh72 billion and Sh78 billion where spending on Kenya is projected at between Sh54billion and Sh57 billion.

It targets spending between Sh18 billion and Sh21 billion for Ethiopia.

‘In Kenya we remain focused on executing our strategy through segment-led execution and integrated solution and our consumer business will deepen partnerships to accelerate 4G+ device access and availability alongside scaling content solutions,’ Safaricom Plc chief executive officer Peter Ndegwa said earlier this month.

‘For our Ethiopia business, the priority is addressing operational and financial challenges and also meeting our regulatory obligations while maintaining commercial momentum.’

Safaricom’s first corporate bond is expected to revitalise a debt segment, which has been in a lull for years as Treasury bonds dominate.

Only Sh25.9 billion worth of corporate bonds were outstanding at the NSE at the end of September, including notes by EABL, Family Bank, the Kenya Mortgage Refinance Company (KMRC), Linzi Finco Trust and Batian Income Properties.

The corporate debt segment has been dented by issuers who went belly up soon after issuing their notes, including Imperial Bank.

Micro-lender Real People, which has Sh1.63 billion in outstanding notes, also ran into financial headwinds soon after issuing its medium-term notes.

EABL has recently dipped back into the corporate debt segment, raising Sh16.7 billion to pay for other outstanding borrowings after making an early redemption of Sh11 billion notes last month.

The brewer’s bond was oversubscribed from its initial target of Sh11 billion, translating to a performance rate of 152.4 percent, with the paper being priced at 11.8 percent.

EABL is set to return to the market with a second tranche of the notes as it seeks to raise a total of Sh20 billion, indicating it would likely take Sh3.3 billion in the second issue.

Safaricom reported a 52.1 percent rise in its half-year profit to Sh42.7 billion, helped by a smaller loss in Ethiopia and M-Pesa’s double-digit growth.

Its net profit grew from Sh28.11 billion the previous year, and it expects to declare an interim dividend in February.

The Kenya business continued to be the main profit driver on the back of M-Pesa, the firm’s largest unit and on course to generate half of the telco’s revenues.

Its reported loss in Ethiopia dropped by 59 percent compared to the first half of the previous financial year, which was heavily impacted by a depreciation of the birr currency.

The loss in Ethiopia that is attributed to Safaricom dropped to Sh15.2 billion from Sh19.4 billion in the same period a year earlier, translating to a gain of Sh4.2 billion.

Safaricom launched in Ethiopia in 2022 as the Addis government opened up the tightly-controlled economy to foreign competition and is hoping its presence in Africa’s second most populous country will power future growth.

Its diversification from the saturated voice and SMS business is paying off, with M-Pesa, mobile data and fixed internet emerging as sales drivers.

Safaricom’s revenue rose to Sh199.9 billion in the six months to September, from Sh179.9 billion in the same period a year earlier, reflecting a 11.1 percent growth.

Revenue from mobile financial service M-Pesa rose to Sh88.1 billion from Sh77.2 billion previously, reflecting a growth of 14 percent.

The shilling is expected to weaken against the US dollar to about Sh134 next year on the back of increased imports and higher costs for servicing foreign public debt.

Seven global institutions tracking Kenya’s macroeconomic position such as Oxford Economics, Standard Chartered and Citigroup Global Markets see sustained calmness in the foreign exchange market for nearly one and a half years coming under threat in coming months due to mounting pressure on Kenya’s dollar reserves.

The Kenyan currency opened trading on Wednesday at 129.90 per dollar, according to official data from the Central Bank of Kenya, a 15-month low since it hovered around 130 units on August 6, 2024.

It has remained little changed for months at 129.24 units, drawing concerns from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

IMF officials are reported to have termed the shilling too stable during their recent staff visit to Kenya, which concluded on October 10, suggesting an element of management of the market by the CBK, which has denied this view.

Forex traders have attributed the renewed pressure on the local unit in recent days largely to falling supply of dollars.

The shilling has been relatively stable since mid-2024, exchanging between 129 and 130 levels on increased dollar inflows from diaspora remittances, dollar-denominated borrowing, agricultural exports and return-chasing offshore investors.

The currency has averaged 129.30 this year, reportedly supported in part by the Central Bank’s crawling-peg strategy, which allows gradual, controlled adjustments in response to inflation and external sector conditions.

But global institutions expect this stability to soften going forward.

According to the December 2025 FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast, based on feedback from seven international firms, the shilling is likely to trade at 134 per dollar by end-2026, and slipping further to 138 by end-2027.

The analysts see persistent fiscal deficits due to revenue shortfalls, widening current account deficit and elevated external financing needs amid gradual erosion of purchasing power as the biggest drivers of projected gentle weakening in the next two years.

‘The shilling is expected to gradually weaken against the dollar through 2026 due to persistent fiscal and current account deficits and an uptick in inflation,’ analysts at FocusEconomics wrote in the outlook report. ‘A potential IMF deal reinforcing fiscal discipline is an appreciatory risk.’

A depreciating shilling means higher costs for imports such as industrial supplies into factories, fuel, and machinery and spare parts, while also pressuring foreign debt servicing costs projected at Sh586.46 billion this fiscal year ending June 2026.

Imports, for example, edged up 1.16 percent in first eight months of the year to Sh1.81 trillion, while exports dropped 2.20 percent to Sh745.20 billion, signaling more demand for dollars than supply.

Kenya’s fiscal deficit this fiscal year ending June 2026, on the other hand, is projected at Sh923.2 billion, or 4.8 percent of gross domestic product (GDP).

An elevated fiscal pressure poses a risk to the continued stability of the shilling because the budget shortfall is bridged by increased domestic borrowing – effectively printing money- which result in devaluation of the currency when the increase in supply of local unit is not matched by demand.

UK-based Capital Economics projects the steepest depreciation among the forecasters surveyed in the report, seeing the shilling touching 140 levels in 2026.

Analysts at Oxford Economics expect the currency at 138 next year and 150 in 2027, while Standard Chartered places its forecast at 133 in 2026 and 139 the following year.

Fitch Ratings and Fitch Solutions are more moderate, seeing the shilling exchange at 131 next year, before weakening to 133-134 levels in 2027, while Citigroup Global Markets and the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) forecast the local to sell at mid-130s levels across the two years.

These projections come on the back of the CBK maintaining that the shilling’s current stability reflects improved confidence in the economy and increased dollar inflows.

‘The Kenya shilling has remained stable, supported by diversified foreign exchange inflows from diaspora remittances, horticulture, tea exports and offshore banks as well as confidence in the economy, particularly with the recent upgrade of Kenya’s credit rating by S and P Global Ratings,’ CBK Governor Kamau Thugge said on October 8.

‘The expectation is that the stability will continue given momentum in the balance of payments and the narrowing of the current account deficit.’

Analysts have maintained the ‘crawling peg’ approach – which has allowed small, predictable adjustments in the exchange rate to align with economic fundamentals such as inflation and current account conditions – has helped anchor the shilling in a narrow trading band of between 129.22 and 129.24.

‘Since February 2024, the exchange rate has been remarkably steady at Sh129 to Sh130 per US dollar, with indications the Kenya shilling would have appreciated more were it not for the central bank’s proactive reserve accumulation strategy,’ analysts at global credit rating agency Moody’s wrote in a note on July 22.

‘Despite these positive developments, external debt service needs remain large, averaging about $3.5 billion annually in interest and principal payments. Meeting these obligations without eroding the central bank’s reserve buffer will require continued access to concessional and market-based external financing.’

Kenya’s textile industry has long stood as a symbol of both promise and neglect.

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Once employing nearly 30 percent of the manufacturing workforce and supporting over 200,000 cotton-farming households, the sector has since withered under decades of underinvestment, policy inconsistency, and the influx of second-hand imports.

What was once a proud pillar of industrial employment and export earnings has been reduced to a patchwork of struggling mills, idle ginneries, and farmers who abandoned cotton for survival crops.

A story of decline

The liberalisation wave of the early 1990s opened Kenya’s market to global competition, but without the infrastructure or capacity to withstand it. Textile mills, unable to compete with cheap imports, shut their doors.

By the early 2000s, most large-scale garment manufacturers had either collapsed or were operating at less than 10 percent capacity. The result was devastating.

Factories that once produced millions of metres of fabric became ghost facilities dependent on government bailouts rather than production.

Cotton production plummeted from historic highs to below 10,000 MT annually, dismantling a once-integrated ecosystem of farmers, ginners, and processors.

As mills fell silent, the collapse cascaded down the value chain, farmers lost markets, gins rusted away, and rural economies stagnated.

A window of opportunity

Three decades later, a window for renewal has opened. Kenya’s Cotton, Textile, and Apparel (CTA) Policy 2024 sets out a clear roadmap for revitalization, emphasizing value-chain integration, private-sector partnerships, and incentives for modernisation.

Kenya currently imports about $2.2 billion worth of textiles annually, a paradox for a cotton-producing country. Local mills meet less than 45 percent of domestic fabric demand, representing a massive import-substitution opportunity.

If the policy is executed with discipline and focus, even partial import replacement could save the country hundreds of millions in foreign exchange, while exports could triple to $2 billion by 2030, up from $628 million in 2024.

The multiplier effects are substantial. A thriving textile ecosystem can rejuvenate cotton farming across 24 counties, re-engage 200,000 farmers, and catalyse thousands of indirect jobs in logistics, transport, and retail. This is particularly crucial in a nation where 17.7 percent of the youth remain unemployed.

At a household level, a predictable cotton market revives rural incomes, while at a national scale, the textile revival strengthens Kenya’s manufacturing share of GDP, reduces trade deficits, and expands export diversification under trade frameworks like Agoa, AfCFTA, and EBA.

A global shift Kenya can seize

Global supply chains are undergoing realignment. Rising labour costs in Asia, sustainability pressures, and shifting trade dynamics are prompting major brands to diversify sourcing to Africa.

Studies by Gherzi indicate that over 50 percent of Africa’s apparel demand is currently met through imports, a market valued at $74 billion in 2024, and projected to grow to $93 billion by 2030.

Kenya currently enjoys a 10 percent tariff advantage into the US compared to Asian exporters such as Bangladesh or Vietnam, following the latest Trump tariff directives but also benefits from the one-year Agoa extension, a structural edge that, if coupled with vertically integrated capacity, grants Kenya the opportunity to position itself as East Africa’s textile and apparel hub.

The road ahead

If implemented with discipline, this initiative will not only re-industrialize Kenya’s textile sector but reposition the country as a continental model for sustainable industrialisation, combining agriculture, manufacturing, and exports in one circular ecosystem.

From Rivatex’s factory floors in Eldoret to new knitwear lines in Vipingo, the rebirth of Kenyan textiles is more than an industrial project; it is a social and economic renaissance. It represents a shift from dependency to productivity, from importing to exporting, and from unemployment to empowerment.

The targets of 22,000 jobs, $514 million in annual output, $470 million in investment, and $2 billion in exports by 2030 are both bold and achievable.

With government as the enabler, and private enterprise as the driver, the revival of Kenya’s textile industry is no longer a distant ambition. It is a transformation already in motion.

A silent revolution is reshaping the global economy, driven by talent, technology, and the relentless pursuit of competitive service delivery. As global enterprises diversify operations and seek new efficiency frontiers, Africa stands ready to reap the proceeds.

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Young, educated, and digitally connected, the continent is positioned to power the next wave of global services and innovation. Yet, the continent’s greatest opportunity remains its greatest gap; the need for world-class business ecosystems that allow global firms to set up, operate and scale with confidence.

A United Nations paper published in October 2024 estimates that Africa’s youth population, already the largest in the world, is projected to double to over 830 million by 2050. By the same year, the continent’s working-age population (15-64 years) will rise from 849 million in 2024 to 1.56 billion, accounting for 85 percent of the global workforce increase.

This will create an unmatched pool for technology, BPO, finance and professional services. One in four global workers will be African by 2035, shifting the centre of global talent.

Africa’s exports of services are growing faster than the global average, powered by digital infrastructure, trade integration, and expanding innovation hubs.

As a developing country and the sixth-largest economy on the continent, Kenya must be at the heart of this revolution. Nairobi must position itself as the gateway through which Africa’s services future is taking shape.

Without doubt, Kenya is where Africa’s service economy meets global scale. Strategically positioned, globally connected, and innovation-led, Kenya has become the continent’s hub for international services, investment, and talent.

With a vibrant private sector, policy stability, and world class digital infrastructure, Nairobi has evolved into a regional command centre for technology, finance, and professional services, where global companies establish operations, access skilled labour and serve international markets.

Over 400 regional and continental headquarters including the UN, Microsoft, Visa, IBM, and Teleperformance are located in Nairobi.

Services now account for over 50 percent of GDP and deliver Kenya’s only trade surplus, led by ICT, finance, and professional outsourcing.

The country is ranked top 3 innovation hub in Africa with more than 200 active tech and innovation centres and nearly 50 percent of East Africa’s tech Foreign Direct Investments (FDI).

The Jomo Kenyatta International Airport and the Moi International Airport Mombasa link Africa, Europe, and Asia within a single workday. Kenya’s strategic time zone (GMT+3) enables seamless overlap with Europe, the Middle East, and Asia. Strong governance and a progressive Special Economic Zones (SEZ) framework are big investor confidence boosters.

The smart money right now is betting that Africa’s next trillion-dollar growth frontier is not in goods, but in its in services.

Global demand for service delivery is rising sharply, and Africa is the next major frontier.

Driven by rising labour costs, talent shortages and supply-chain realignments, global firms are rethinking where they operate.

Multinationals are diversifying operations to cost-competitive, talent-rich, and stable hubs for service delivery. Africa is emerging as the next major services frontier.

The continent is beginning to capture a larger share of global outsourcing, technology, and professional-services investment. Kenya leads Africa’s service-export transformation. As a regional hub for innovation and corporate headquarters, it combines skilled talent, digital infrastructure, and policy stability, attracting global firms seeking scalable service operations.

Yet, setup remains complex and uncertain. Across Africa, companies struggle to find compliant facilities and predictable processes, slowing expansion and limiting the continent’s ability to convert opportunity into output. Global companies face the same obstacles; setting up operations is slow, complex, and uncertain.

So far, service SEZs have proven to provide the best chance for eliminating that barrier. They do so by offering Grade A workspace, clear regulation, world-class infrastructure, and a streamlined one-stop setup process, giving investors the speed, certainty, and compliance needed to start and scale. They enable service-oriented firms to launch or scale operations quickly and confidently.

By providing real estate, infrastructure, fiscal incentives, and enterprise enablement, global investors get quick access to regulatory licensing, skilled talent, advanced technology, operational certainty, and business enablement.

Beyond the tax and infrastructure incentives, SEZs also deliver high-level engagement with policymakers and global anchors, ensuring barriers are removed and growth is accelerated.

Investors don’t just find offices, they find acceleration, clarity, and confidence to grow globally from Kenya.

The government must be commended for creating a magnetic pull of tax advantaged-SEZs with the performance of private business accelerators, reducing friction, lowering cost, and amplifying productivity.

If Kenya is to generate tens of thousands of high-quality jobs for our youth, then it must tap into the expanding African footprint in global service delivery.

The UN paper titled Unlocking the potential of Africa’s youth posits that to fully harness their vast potential, aligning Africa’s economic strategies with the realities of its growing youth population is crucial.

Service SEZs have the capacity to catalyse Kenya’s next generation of skilled professionals, linking education, enterprise, and export-ready expertise.

Formal, high-income jobs feed directly into PAYE and income tax, while multinational tenants strengthen Kenya’s corporate tax base and boost foreign exchange earnings through export-led services.