Fast thinking, bad decisions: When smart managers ask the wrong strategy questions

‘If I had an hour to solve a problem and my life depended on the solution, I would spend the first 55 minutes determining the proper question to ask . for once I know the proper question, I could solve the problem in less than five minutes’ said Albert Einstein.

Why do we have this infatuation with the right answer? Are smart managers often confused, or hesitant – while the ‘stupid’ always have the right solution? Can knowledge and insight come from the most unexpected places? Are the real masters of the business universe those who can chart the right line of enquiry? What is system 1 and system 2 thinking?

Our human brain is metabolically expensive, consuming approximately 20 percent of metabolic energy, despite comprising only two percent of our body weight. Unlike a muscle, it has no way to store energy.

Risk of leaping to a quick fix

Success in business is all about asking the right questions.

Not very helpful to get the right answer to the wrong question. The Japanese are masters of this, always taking the time to reach a Quaker like consensus on the right questions to ask – and not leaping to quick answers that are often more fueled by managers’ ‘attempting to look good’ egos.

Useful to take some time to ‘think about how we think’. How is it that we can jump to quick decisions in business that turn out to be dead wrong?

Imagine the fund manager who tastes the food products of a manufacturer listed on the Nairobi Stock Exchange. ‘Wow, I love all their tasty products, plus their distribution and packaging is first class’ says the potential investor.

Their literally gut feel, their intuition tells them this is great company with mouth watering products and the fund should make a significant investment.

Fund manager trusts his deep down inside feeling, his intuition and will recommend to his board to buy up a significant block of their stock.

Stop a minute and let’s push the pause button. What is the question the fund manager should really be asking? Correct question is – Is the stock currently under priced?

Why didn’t they do this? The reason is our brains sometimes work on the ‘law of least effort’. When faced with a tricky difficult question, we all too often answer the easier question instead. The problem is that we don’t notice that this substitution of the correct question is happening. We take the easy way out.

The fund manager is not alone, we all do this, trusting our intuition and just plain gut feel, which is hopefully often right, but can be very wrong.

Fancy term for this is the ‘affect heuristic’. Heuristic is the name of the process of how we find out things for our ourselves, from the Greek word to discover.

Driven by emotion

When we do this, our judgment and discussions are guided by our feelings of like or dislike, by just plain emotion, without any deeper deliberation or reasoning. One can easily see this on NSE share prices that are often more driven by investors’ emotions than business fundamentals.

Daniel Kahneman, the winner of the 2002 Nobel Prize for economics and one of the founders of the school of behavioral economics believes our thinking decision making processes can be described as: fast thinking system 1 and slow thinking system 2.

Your system 1 thinking is always automatically on allowing us to survive, so that when you see a stop sign you know instantly what it means. Or, when you see an expression of grief on someone’s face you can instantly tell how they are feeling.

System 1 is where your gut feel and intuition lie, where there is stereotyping, with all the prejudice and biases that comes with it.

System 2 is thinking that requires an effortful mental activity, as in what is 17 x 24 ? It is system 2 that is operating if you are talking to your boss on the phone while driving and he or she asks you a difficult and sensitive question.

Your brain can only process so much information and can get easily overloaded – which is why talking on your cell while driving is forbidden in Kenya.

Notice the programming

Next time you are making a business decision remember you can’t stop the automatic programming of system 1 that is built into your grey matter’s CPU.

But notice this is happening and be ready to dig deeper with some analysis, that may require some number crunching and research.

There is a world of difference between a strategy and an operational plan.

What most Kenyan businesses have is a ‘hope for the best’ operational plan, often based more on [system 1] emotions and gut feel — where a distinctive strategy based on [system 2] solid diagnosis, taking time to ask the right questions is just not there.

At the heart of strategy is a deep understanding of what your product or service is all about.

Part of this is asking the fundamental system 2 question of: What does the customer really want ? In the best of all possible worlds one would be able to answer the question and even be able to reinvent the category. In others words, be able to reinvent the basis of competition, ideally inventing a whole new category. That might be too ambitious for today but 17 x 24 is 408.

‘Smart people learn from everything and everyone, average people from their experiences, stupid people already have all the answers,” advised Socrates.

Better tax incentives crucial to sustain new NSE listings pipeline

Kenya’s capital markets have long been viewed as a critical pillar for mobilsing long-term funding, broadening ownership of productive enterprises, and supporting inclusive economic growth.

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Yet, despite this strategic importance, new listings at the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE) have been few and far between over the last decade.

As policymakers and market stakeholders reflect on how to reinvigorate the listings pipeline, one policy lever stands out as both practical and proven elsewhere: tax exemptions for newly listed companies.

If Kenya is keen on encouraging more companies to list, then the conversation must shift to what happens after listing, particularly how newly listed companies are supported through competitive tax incentives.

A good case study is Jamaica. With a population of just around 2.8 million people, Jamaica has built one of the most vibrant equity markets among small economies.

The Jamaica Stock Exchange (JSE) boasts over 100 listed companies, a remarkable feat when viewed against Kenya’s population of over 55 million and an NSE with 65 listed firms. The difference is not explained by economic size alone. A key driver has been Jamaica’s deliberate and generous tax policy aimed at encouraging companies to list.

Under Jamaica’s framework, companies listing on the Junior Market enjoy a corporate income tax holiday of up to 10 years, 100 percent exemption for the first five years and 50 percent exemption for the next five. This incentive materially improves post-listing cash flows, making the costs of listing worthwhile and attractive.

The result has been a steady pipeline of new issuers, including small and medium-sized enterprises that would otherwise have remained private. The tax incentive is simple, predictable, and substantial enough to change corporate behaviour.

Kenya has experimented with tax incentives for listed companies in the past, but the impact has been limited largely because the incentives were modest. Historically, newly listed firms have benefited from a reduction in corporate income tax, typically a 5 percentage point reduction (from 30 percent to 25 percent) for a limited period, often five years.

While helpful, this saving is relatively small when weighed against listing costs, ongoing disclosure obligations, market volatility, and the loss of control perceived by some promoters.

Unsurprisingly, these incentives did not meaningfully shift listing decisions, and the NSE did not experience a sustained increase in new entrants.

In other markets, Malaysia offers a clear example of deliberate post-listing support through tax policy. Companies listing on Bursa Malaysia, particularly on the ACE Market, have historically benefited from partial corporate income tax exemptions for several years after listing, directly improving post-IPO profitability and easing the transition to life as a public company.

In addition, IPO-related expenses such as advisory, underwriting, and professional fees are tax-deductible, significantly reducing the effective cost of going public. Importantly, Malaysia treats liquidity-enhancing corporate actions including share splits, bonus issues, and rights issues as tax-neutral at the point of issuance, meaning no immediate tax is triggered when companies restructure their share capital to broaden ownership or improve tradability.

With no capital gains tax on listed equities for investors, these measures collectively encourage strong investor participation, healthier secondary-market trading, and a sustained pipeline of new listings demonstrating how targeted tax incentives can support companies well beyond the IPO stage. Whilst IPO costs were tax deductible in Kenya, these incentives were also removed.

Kenya now has a timely opportunity to rethink its approach. The anticipated Kenya Pipeline Company (KPC) initial public offering, expected in the first quarter of 2026, could be a landmark transaction for the NSE.

As a strategic national asset, KPC’s listing has the potential to deepen the market, attract domestic and foreign investors, and set a benchmark for future State and private sector listings. However, for this listing to achieve its full impact, it must be supported by a well-designed tax incentive framework.

Beyond the initial IPO, corporate actions such as share splits may be considered in the future to increase the number of issued shares and improve liquidity and retail participation. While share splits are value-neutral in economic terms, they can trigger tax implications depending on how they are structured and interpreted under tax law.

If such actions attract taxes-whether stamp duty, capital gains-related considerations, or other transaction taxes-there is a strong case for extending tax incentives to cover these post-listing activities. Penalising companies for measures aimed at improving liquidity runs counter to the objective of building a vibrant secondary market.

Carefully designed tax exemptions would not erode the tax base in the long run; rather, they would expand it by bringing more companies into the formal, transparent market environment. In addition, dividends will remain subject to withholding tax.

Ultimately, the goal is not to offer incentives indefinitely, but to use them strategically to unlock listings that would otherwise not happen. The Jamaican experience demonstrates that when incentives are meaningful, companies respond. Kenya’s previous incentives, though well intentioned, were simply not significant enough to overcome structural and perception barriers to listing.

If Kenya wants more Kenyan companies to list and stay listed then tax policy must be bold, clear, and competitive. Supporting companies post listing through well-calibrated tax exemptions is not a giveaway; it is an investment in market depth, investor confidence, and long-term economic growth.

As the country looks ahead to major listings such as KPC and beyond, now is the time to align tax policy with capital market ambitions.

Let us support Kenyan companies not just to list, but to thrive after listing.

Green gram, cow peas top Kenya’s food crop exports on policy shift

Green gram and cowpeas exports grew sharply in the quarter to September 2025, bucking a trend of slumps in the shipment of Kenya’s main food crops to lucrative markets due to a policy priority to service domestic consumers.

Analysis of data by the Agriculture and Food Authority (AFA) showed that shipments of green grams, cowpeas, and beans posted explosive growth in the quarter to September, with cowpea exports rising over 724 percent, driven by high demand from Asia and the Middle East, handing a boost to producers servicing the well-paying markets abroad.

Contrastingly, exports of major cereals like rice and maize remained minimal amid a policy priority to satisfy local consumption in the wake of tight production volumes locally.

Kenya’s rice exports slumped 99 percent to 12.23 tonnes in the quarter to September 2025, compared to 1,561.69 tonnes in a similar period of 2024, indicating a major shift of available supplies to the domestic market.

Maize and wheat exports showed significant percentage growth from a very small base (increasing to 77.74 tonnes and 223 tonnes, respectively, although their absolute volumes remained negligible, continuing the trend of prioritising local consumption.

‘On the other hand, the pulse sector demonstrated growth, driving Kenya’s overall export performance. Green gram exports more than doubled, surging from 5,519.55 tonnes to 13,241.49 tonnes, with a particularly massive shipment in July 2025,’ the regulator said.

Cowpea exports saw an increase of over 724 percent, jumping from 645 tonnes to 5,317.41 tonnes, the quarterly data showed, while bean exports also grew by 14 percent to 8,059.55 tonnes.

The only pulse that recorded a reduction was pigeon peas, which fell by 16 percent to 17,453.21 tonnes, though it remained the second-highest export crop by volume. Irish potato exports fell sharply by 95 percent to 14.94 tonnes.

‘In general, the period was marked by a strategic pivot where cereal exports were heavily constrained, while pulses, particularly green grams and cowpeas, flourished in the international market,’ AFA said.

‘Kenya’s agricultural exports are highly concentrated in specific, strategic international markets. The data reveals a clear reliance on a few key destinations for each commodity,’ it added.

In the quarter to September, the export of pulses was mainly directed toward Asian markets. India was the near-total destination for cowpeas (99.95 percent) and the dominant buyer of pigeon peas (92.43 percent).

Similarly, the bean market was led by India (40.03 percent) and Pakistan (32.77 percent). Green grams found their primary markets in Thailand (37.98 percent), the United Arab Emirates (UAE) (20.60 percent), and Indonesia (20.28 percent).

Thailand bought 5,029 tonnes of green gram from Kenya valued Sh554.79 million, while the UAE purchased 2,728 tonnes of the commodity valued Sh282.45million. Indonesia was also a big buyer of Kenya’s green grams in the quarter to September 2025, with 2,685tonnes valued Sh295.3 million bought.

EABL chief finance officer Ohaga to exit after six years

East African Breweries Limited (EABL) chief financial officer Risper Ohaga will leave her position at the end of June, ending a six-year tenure during which she played a central role in strengthening the brewer’s financial position and governance.

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The exit comes ahead of EABL’s parent company Diageo selling its 65 percent stake to Japan’s Asahi Group, which will control the beer maker going forward.

In a staff announcement on Tuesday, EABL Group Chief Executive Officer Jane Karuku and Group Human Resources Director Jackie Chimhanzi said Ms Ohaga will leave the company to pursue interests in line with her career aspirations.

She will remain in office until June 30, to allow for an orderly transition, with her successor to be announced later.

Ms Ohaga joined EABL in February 2020 from Absa Group, then known as Barclays, where she had worked for more than a decade in senior finance and audit roles across Africa.

Her appointment coincided with the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, a period that placed unprecedented strain on corporate balance sheets and funding.

‘She has led in delivering the 2021 and 2025 medium-term notes, saving the business significant amounts in interest costs, demonstrating her financial acuity and bold decision-making,’ the company said in a statement.

The statement added that Ms Ohaga also placed strong emphasis on talent development, with members of the EABL finance team winning Diageo global finance awards a record three times in the past four years.

At EABL, she is credited with optimising the company’s balance sheet and securing funding to fully support its strategy while tightly managing costs. She led the issuance of the brewer’s 2021 and 2025 medium-term notes, transactions that the company says delivered significant savings in interest costs and strengthened its funding profile.

Under her leadership, EABL said, the company reinforced its financial controls and governance structures, enhanced investor relations, and delivered strong results in a challenging operating environment.

‘A number of Finance staff have taken up international assignments both globally and within EABL, with secondments to senior roles in Japan, Ghana, India, Ireland, and Singapore, among others. She believes in nurturing and developing talent as evidenced by the number of finance staff promoted and/or taking on new challenges under her leadership.’

Before joining EABL, Ms Ohaga served as Chief Financial Officer for Absa’s Zambian unit between November 2015 and February 2020. She previously held the role of Managing Director for Barclays Internal Audit, Africa Retail and Business Banking, where she was accountable for audit delivery across 13 African countries.

Earlier, she was Director, Africa, at Barclays Internal Audit, overseeing retail and business banking audits in 12 countries, including Kenya, South Africa, Uganda, Tanzania, Ghana, and Egypt. Her career at Barclays began as Regional Director for Internal Audit for East and West Africa.

Ms Ohaga earlier worked at KPMG, where she spent more than nine years as a senior manager between 1999 and 2008.

Change and the things we take for granted

In the debate about the prospects of Kenya’s transformation, it is easy to forget where we are coming from – the distance already travelled. The proportion of Kenyans age 50 and above, is 10 percent. Unlike the Gen Z, these older folks will have lived at a time of phone booths or coin boxes.

They will have known a time when calls were made through land lines, and a fax machine was all the rage.

Kenya passport jumps five places in global mobility rankings

The Kenyan passport has strengthened its global standing in 2026, climbing five places to 68th worldwide despite a marginal decline in visa-free destinations, new rankings show.

The improvement marks a reversal from last year’s slide and signals stabilisation in the local travel document’s strength following years of volatility linked to weak reciprocity and limited bilateral visa waiver agreements.

Beyond words: How culture shapes workplace dialogue

During a recent virtual project review, a team of managers from across three continents gathered to discuss progress on a global initiative. Midway through the meeting, the project lead from Germany presented his update with characteristic precision; clear, factual, and unambiguous.

He directly identified what was off-track and proposed corrective steps.

A colleague from Japan, who had quietly taken notes, appeared uneasy but said little. Afterward, she shared privately that the discussion had felt ‘too sharp,’ almost confrontational. The German lead, on the other hand, was perplexed as he thought he had simply been transparent and efficient.

Both professionals were competent, committed, and well-intentioned. Yet they experienced the same moment through very different cultural lenses.

This scenario captures one of the most persistent realities of modern work: in global and multicultural organizations, communication is never just about what is said, it is also about how it is understood. The owner of the meaning is indeed the receiver!

Culture is the invisible framework that shapes how we express ourselves, how we interpret messages, and how we respond to others.

It defines whether we value directness or diplomacy, whether silence signals reflection or disagreement, and whether hierarchy determines who speaks first, all voices being equal.

Even nonverbal cues such as eye contact, gestures, tone, and physical space carry meaning that differs dramatically across cultures.

A raised eyebrow or a brief pause can mean very different things in Paris, Nairobi, or Shanghai. An up and down motion of the head could be either a ‘yes’ or a ‘no’, depending on where you are on the globe!

These subtleties can lead to communication breakdowns if they go unrecognized. A brief email that seems efficient in one culture may appear abrupt in another. I remember a high-ranking official of a company that used to write ‘one sentence e mails’ in all capital letters and red color.

The rebellion simmered below surface, but not for long. It proved quite counterproductive as senior managers started to complain openly.

Looking back, it was cultural. I have noticed that, over time, small misunderstandings of this nature can accumulate into friction, frustration, and even fractured relationships. Teams may find themselves working hard yet misaligned.

This may not be due to a lack of skill or effort, but because of unspoken differences in how they communicate.

The key to bridging these gaps lies not in conformity, but in cultural agility. This refers to the ability to adapt one’s communication style without losing authenticity.

Cultural agility begins with self-awareness: recognising that our preferred way of speaking, listening, and leading is shaped by our upbringing and environment, not by universal truth.

It extends to curiosity, which is seeking to understand how others convey respect, disagreement, or enthusiasm. This mindset transforms cultural difference from a source of tension into a source of strength.

Organisations that operate successfully across borders intentionally develop cultural intelligence as part of their leadership DNA. In practice, this means taking deliberate steps: checking for shared understanding during meetings, inviting quieter voices to contribute, and framing feedback with awareness of how it might be perceived in different cultural contexts.

Instead of saying ‘ I don’t agree with that view’ which would be too direct and hurtful in some cultures, we encourage statements like ” That’s an interesting view, may we additionally consider the other option that.”. I have found this work wonders in practice.

In today’s interconnected world, the effectiveness of our communication defines the effectiveness of our leadership. It determines whether we build bridges or barriers, whether our messages connect or collide. Communication, at its best, is not merely about transmission, it is about connection.

Peter Drucker captured it well that ‘the most important thing in communication is hearing what is said and what is not’.

As workplaces continue to evolve across geographies and generations, the challenge for leaders is not just to speak clearly but to listen deeply, with empathy, openness, and cultural humility.

For in truly understanding one another, we move beyond words and build workplaces that are not only productive but profoundly human.

Directline Assurance moves to replace ousted CEO

Directline Assurance is looking for a new CEO hardly three months after its former boss, Sammy Kanyi, was ejected amid a shareholders’ row at the country’s second-largest public service vehicles insurer.

The development follows the exit of Mr Kanyi in September last year after one of the insurer’s top shareholders, Samuel Kamau (SK) Macharia, ejected several senior management staff as wrangles over control of the company escalated.

How US rivalry with Russia, China gifted exporters Agoa extension boost

Pressure from China and Russia prompted the US House of Representatives to pass a Bill to extend the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa) programme, which provides preferential access to a key market for goods from Kenya and other select African nations, a top official has revealed.

The US House of Representatives voted on Monday to extend Agoa for three years, bringing relief to Kenyan exporters to the US who had been primed to be hit by tariffs of as much as 42 percent from October 1, 2025, and to thousands of jobs at firms operating in export processing zones (EPZs) that were at risk.

Synergy between aviation, tourism key to unlocking economic growth

Kenya’s long-term economic growth depends on how effectively it connects with the world. Two sectors sit at the heart of this ambition: aviation and tourism.

Deeply interconnected, they act as engines for global and national economic growth. Leveraging the synergy between these sectors creates a multiplier effect that promotes employment, trade, and regional development, offering Kenya an opportunity to enhance competitiveness with peer economies.

Aviation provides the arteries of connectivity, bringing people, goods, and capital into the country, while tourism generates the demand that fills these routes.

Kenya’s aviation industry supports thousands of jobs and contributes up to 3.1 percent of GDP-about Sh425 billion annually-through direct and indirect impacts, including supply chain activity, employee spending, and tourism.

Globally, over 58 percent of international tourists travel by air, highlighting aviation’s central role in driving visitor numbers.

Tourism contributes 10 percent of GDP and supports more than a million livelihoods directly or indirectly.

As global tourism shifts toward diversity, authenticity, and year-round experiences, Kenya is well-positioned to expand its offerings, attract new traveler segments, and enhance its international profile.

Joint destination marketing is a natural starting point: airlines, airports, and tourism agencies can combine efforts by sharing traveler data, load factors, and demographics to identify underserved markets, promote new and existing routes, and strengthen both sectors.

Kenya’s airports must evolve into efficient, passenger-friendly gateways that facilitate tourism and trade. Investments in modern terminals, visitor centers, smart security, and cargo facilities can improve travel experiences and enhance Kenya’s logistics capacity for perishable exports like flowers, seafood, and horticultural products.

Expanding and refurbishing regional hubs will also disperse tourism beyond Nairobi and the Coast.

Policy alignment and human capital development are critical to realising these synergies. Expanding air access through international partnerships and Bilateral Air Service Agreements will increase competition, lower fares, and grow local capacity via partnerships, code sharing and joint ventures.

Kenya’s participation in ICAO and UN Tourism provides a strategic advantage, enabling the country to shape global policy, attract investment, and adopt best practices in connectivity and destination management.

By fully integrating aviation and tourism, Kenya can create jobs, boost foreign exchange earnings, drive business growth, and strengthen its global brand.