‘If I had an hour to solve a problem and my life depended on the solution, I would spend the first 55 minutes determining the proper question to ask . for once I know the proper question, I could solve the problem in less than five minutes’ said Albert Einstein.
Why do we have this infatuation with the right answer? Are smart managers often confused, or hesitant – while the ‘stupid’ always have the right solution? Can knowledge and insight come from the most unexpected places? Are the real masters of the business universe those who can chart the right line of enquiry? What is system 1 and system 2 thinking?
Our human brain is metabolically expensive, consuming approximately 20 percent of metabolic energy, despite comprising only two percent of our body weight. Unlike a muscle, it has no way to store energy.
Risk of leaping to a quick fix
Success in business is all about asking the right questions.
Not very helpful to get the right answer to the wrong question. The Japanese are masters of this, always taking the time to reach a Quaker like consensus on the right questions to ask – and not leaping to quick answers that are often more fueled by managers’ ‘attempting to look good’ egos.
Useful to take some time to ‘think about how we think’. How is it that we can jump to quick decisions in business that turn out to be dead wrong?
Imagine the fund manager who tastes the food products of a manufacturer listed on the Nairobi Stock Exchange. ‘Wow, I love all their tasty products, plus their distribution and packaging is first class’ says the potential investor.
Their literally gut feel, their intuition tells them this is great company with mouth watering products and the fund should make a significant investment.
Fund manager trusts his deep down inside feeling, his intuition and will recommend to his board to buy up a significant block of their stock.
Stop a minute and let’s push the pause button. What is the question the fund manager should really be asking? Correct question is – Is the stock currently under priced?
Why didn’t they do this? The reason is our brains sometimes work on the ‘law of least effort’. When faced with a tricky difficult question, we all too often answer the easier question instead. The problem is that we don’t notice that this substitution of the correct question is happening. We take the easy way out.
The fund manager is not alone, we all do this, trusting our intuition and just plain gut feel, which is hopefully often right, but can be very wrong.
Fancy term for this is the ‘affect heuristic’. Heuristic is the name of the process of how we find out things for our ourselves, from the Greek word to discover.
Driven by emotion
When we do this, our judgment and discussions are guided by our feelings of like or dislike, by just plain emotion, without any deeper deliberation or reasoning. One can easily see this on NSE share prices that are often more driven by investors’ emotions than business fundamentals.
Daniel Kahneman, the winner of the 2002 Nobel Prize for economics and one of the founders of the school of behavioral economics believes our thinking decision making processes can be described as: fast thinking system 1 and slow thinking system 2.
Your system 1 thinking is always automatically on allowing us to survive, so that when you see a stop sign you know instantly what it means. Or, when you see an expression of grief on someone’s face you can instantly tell how they are feeling.
System 1 is where your gut feel and intuition lie, where there is stereotyping, with all the prejudice and biases that comes with it.
System 2 is thinking that requires an effortful mental activity, as in what is 17 x 24 ? It is system 2 that is operating if you are talking to your boss on the phone while driving and he or she asks you a difficult and sensitive question.
Your brain can only process so much information and can get easily overloaded – which is why talking on your cell while driving is forbidden in Kenya.
Notice the programming
Next time you are making a business decision remember you can’t stop the automatic programming of system 1 that is built into your grey matter’s CPU.
But notice this is happening and be ready to dig deeper with some analysis, that may require some number crunching and research.
There is a world of difference between a strategy and an operational plan.
What most Kenyan businesses have is a ‘hope for the best’ operational plan, often based more on [system 1] emotions and gut feel — where a distinctive strategy based on [system 2] solid diagnosis, taking time to ask the right questions is just not there.
At the heart of strategy is a deep understanding of what your product or service is all about.
Part of this is asking the fundamental system 2 question of: What does the customer really want ? In the best of all possible worlds one would be able to answer the question and even be able to reinvent the category. In others words, be able to reinvent the basis of competition, ideally inventing a whole new category. That might be too ambitious for today but 17 x 24 is 408.
‘Smart people learn from everything and everyone, average people from their experiences, stupid people already have all the answers,” advised Socrates.