Category: Business Daily

Kenya’s economy is set to expand faster in 2026 as inflation remains unchanged, reflecting a recovery that global lenders indicate will test the balance between growth and cost-of-living measure.

The latest World Bank’s Kenya Economic Update shows that market perceptions expect inflation to hold at 5.0 percent in 2026, unchanged from forecasts for 2025 and 2027, and higher than the 4.5 percent recorded in 2024.

At the same time, the multilateral lender projects real gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 4.9 percent in 2026, up from 4.7 percent in 2024, indicating a gradual strengthening of economic activity.

The outlook suggests that the economy is emerging from a period of weak growth, marked by tight financial conditions, softer household demand, and disruptions from floods and political unrest.

It however remains to be seen if the improved growth outlook will rev up jobs.

In 2024, the Kenyan economy added the fewest jobs since the 2020 coronavirus pandemic as growth slowed, dealing a blow to the Ruto administration’s plan to ease the mounting youth unemployment.

About 782,300 new jobs were created in 2024, down from 848,100 new hires a year earlier. Last year’s figures are yet to be released.

According to the World Bank, real GDP growth slowed to 4.7 percent in 2024 but gained momentum in early 2025 as monetary conditions eased and public investment picked up.

‘Real GDP growth slowed to 4.7 percent in 2024, but it accelerated in the first half of 2025, growing by 4.9 percent in quarter one of 2025 and 5.0 percent in quarter two of 2025,’ the lender said.

The recovery has been supported by improved performance in construction, driven by lower interest rates, increased public investment and the settlement of road-related arrears.

‘The construction sector is recovering, supported by a reduction in monetary policy rates, increased public investment, and payment of road arrears,’ it wrote in the update.

The World Bank projects real GDP growth to average 4.9 percent over the 2025 to 2027 period, underpinned by macroeconomic stability and a gradual recovery in private sector activity.

It raised its growth forecast for Kenya, citing low inflation, easier monetary policy, stronger credit growth and resilient agriculture as key drivers behind the revision.

However, the lender’s inflation outlook indicates that price pressures may firm alongside the growth recovery rather than continue easing.

Market perceptions captured in the update show inflation stabilising at 5.0 percent in 2026, suggesting that stronger demand and recovering investment could exert upward pressure on prices.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) shares a similar view, projecting real GDP growth to rise to 4.9 percent in 2026 from a forecasted 4.8 percent in 2025.

The IMF also expects inflation to increase to 5.2 percent in 2026, up from a projected 4.0 percent in 2025, signalling firmer price pressures as the economy gains momentum.

These projections, however, contrast with the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK)’s more benign inflation outlook over the next year.

The country’s apex bank has recently cut its inflation forecast for the next 12 months, saying it expects consumer prices to continue easing before reaching lows of about 3.7 percent by June 2026.

Inflation stood at 4.5 percent in November, down slightly from 4.6 percent in October, reinforcing the CBK’s view that price pressures remain contained in the near term.

‘Our focus for inflation going forward for the 12 months up to November 2026 shows that inflation will remain below the midpoint of our target range and will not exceed the five-percent rate,’ CBK Governor Kamau Thugge said.

The CBK attributes the expected moderation in inflation to exchange rate stability, improved food supply and subdued growth in core inflation.

Core inflation, which excludes food and fuel and accounts for about 81 percent of the inflation basket, is expected to anchor overall price growth over the next year.

Non-core inflation, covering food and fuel, is expected to rise temporarily due to seasonal pressures before easing as harvests improve and rains boost food supply.

The CBK’s inflation outlook has provided room for continued monetary policy easing aimed at supporting the recovery of private sector credit.

The central bank has cut its benchmark rate multiple times, citing stable inflation and a steady exchange rate as key factors supporting the decision.

Private sector credit growth has shown signs of recovery, reaching a 19-month high in November as falling borrowing costs stimulated demand for loans.

The CBK says the improvement reflects better credit demand rather than excess risk-taking, consistent with a gradual and controlled recovery.

The global lenders, however, caution that sustained credit growth and stronger domestic demand could gradually feed into inflation over the medium term.

The World Bank notes that the recovery in construction and infrastructure investment is playing a growing role in driving output growth.

While the revival of construction activity supports employment and demand, it also increases exposure to imported inputs and energy costs.

Stronger household spending, expected as borrowing costs fall and incomes stabilise, could further lift demand-side inflation pressures.

Development economist Charles Abugre leads a team of peers whose goal is to drive unconventional approaches on economic policy and development in Africa.

He spoke to the Business Daily on the sidelines of the first Africa Network Conference for the International Development Economics Associates (IDEAs) in Dakar, Senegal in November and discusses progress in pushing for unorthodox approaches to bettering the socio-economic outcomes for the continent, taking on mainstream ideas and his time in Kenya working for the United Nations.

What’s IDEAs main mission?

The mission is to have a coordinated global South perspective on matters of international development and economic policy and its impact on prospects for countries.

Much of the foundations of economics are rooted outside of the newly independent countries and assumptions are based on very matured economies and different traditions.

Countries at the early stage of development are largely agrarian in nature and a rural economy organised around small-scale farmers which is problematic because their participation in the international economy is largely based on the extraction of primary commodities, whether they are agricultural or minerals. These economies are entirely differently set up.

The problem we have had is that there has been an aggressive push of policies from the global North based on their own assumptions and interests such as structural adjustment programmes, privatisation and austerity measures.

What do you consider the early wins for you?

There has been a re-emergence of development economics, though it’s in Africa where this growth is the slowest. The first sign of success is this re-emergence and a demand for ideas for re-thinking economics.

Our writings are also becoming more visible and so our scholars are in demand to be in commission and specialised advisory panels on major issues of international economic development. Our numbers are also growing which is an important sign.

How can heterodox economic ideas go mainstream?

First, we must learn to communicate technical and complex ideas in a simple way. We are also collaborating with the mass media and if they can’t understand and project our work then we would know we are in an echo-chamber. We also want to build progressive partnerships with universities.

We also must be in spaces where discussions on economic/public policy are held. We still engage with institutions such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), but we are more at home with institutions on the continent like Afrexim Bank or the African Development Bank.

We are seeing opposition to anything different as hegemonic powers are challenged, how do you deal with this?

That’s the nature of intellectual discourse. We face that everyday even in countries within the global South. Some of our scholars feel insecure travelling to some countries in the global North because of the views they hold.

We, however must find our own spaces to continue with our work because we know that our views will stand the test of time. With money and power of hegemonies threatened, one can expect a pushback.

You spent some time in Kenya earlier in your career, what did you make of the country?

In my time in Kenya, we had older politicians who were committing to democratic governance and creating spaces for alternative policies. I was working for the UNDP’s Millennium Campaign which pushed for the millennium development goals, and we had to think of different approaches to tackling poverty.

I used to host discussions and that attracted different people like former Chief Justice Dr Willy Mutunga and Kipchumba Murkomen who is now a Cabinet Secretary. At that time, they were all young people, and they believed in goals like equality.

I also travelled around Kenya, I don’t think there is a part of the country I haven’t been to, but I was a UN bureaucrat and probably went to places I wasn’t supposed to go but it helped me understand the country. It was a very hopeful time.

African countries largely confront the same challenges, how different can they go about solving these problems?

When the trust factor and collective governance collapses, it becomes difficult to contain the anger, which is an important lesson learned from the GenZ protests. The lesson however strengthens our belief that austerity is not a way to economic stability. We have to resist excessive taxation.

The problem is not on how much revenue we can raise but how revenue is applied. We must work towards leadership whose solutions do not add to the burden carried by most of the population. We have the solutions in our hands, but governments must be disciplined and have the best interests of people at heart.

What are IDEAs goals over the medium term in championing alternative economic approaches?

In five years, we should launch a master’s course in development economics in at least two universities. We are training people who will find themselves in institutions such as the Central Bank, commercial banks and in public policy spaces. These scholars should be able to push for alternative ideas in government, which down the line would be experimented on.

What’s the one alternative idea would you like to see go mainstream?

There is a growing belief that the best source of development financing is abroad. Our countries have large domestic resources, both financial and non-finance. We have Central Banks and can regulate our commercial banks properly to serve the real economy, not what I call the ‘casino economy’.

Banks cannot be making money when farmers and small manufacturers have no money. We must also introduce more development banks which will work with commercial banks and big businesses to ensure projects requiring long-term funds can be financed.

Despite ranking as one of the strongest economies in Africa, the average rate of saving in Kenya is lower than the continental average, with estimates showing that only about 13 percent of Kenyans save for a rainy day.

While this can be attributed partly to the high cost of living, factors such as high initial deposit requirements, financial illiteracy, lack of formal identification documents and discomfort interacting with bank officials, also contribute to the low saving rate in the country.

As a consequence, many Kenyans, particularly those operating in the informal economy, continue to rely on predatory mobile loans to sustain their businesses or livelihoods when in need of emergency funding.

In economies like South Africa and Nigeria, where the rate of saving averages 30 percent, fintech platforms have been adopted widely to address the saving needs of the informal economy.

By offering decent interest rates on even small capital deposits, these platforms encourage people to start by saving the little money they can get, and watch as their portfolio grows over time.

Leveraging behavioural psychology, some of these platforms guide clients on when and how to save or invest money by sending strategic reminders during instances or events when they are likely to overspend.

The same can be replicated here, but for this to happen, there is a need to first create an environment where products that encourage people to invest with the little capital they have and earn a return, can thrive.

The government can provide incentives such as tax rebates and reliefs to startups that develop products which address the specific needs and constraints of underserved households, to spur innovation.

By increasing the availability of low-cost savings products and matching their design to the needs and constraints of underserved people, more people in the informal economy will start to appreciate the culture of saving.

Marketing campaigns and account features that try to overcome psychological obstacles to saving can also aid in increasing the uptake and use of savings accounts.

Since most of the available investment tools have complex financial jargon that discourages people from investing, simplifying the language can help Kenyans appreciate the value of saving.

Households that save will not only be able to cope with unforeseen disruptions to their income and unanticipated consumption needs, but also to invest in things that could benefit future generations.

As American investor Warren Buffet once said, the ability to discipline oneself to delay gratification in the short-term in order to enjoy greater rewards in the long-term is the indispensable prerequisite for success.

Chief executives of top Kenyan companies expect to hire more workers in 2026 after months of steadily improving business conditions, which followed one of the weakest periods for formal job creation since the Covid-19 pandemic.

The renewed optimism comes after Kenya’s private sector expanded for a third consecutive month in November to a five-year high, marking a sharp turnaround from 2024 and early 2025 when hiring stalled.

Last year, the economy created the fewest jobs since Covid-19, with nearly nine in 10 new positions coming from the informal sector as companies froze pay and avoided permanent hires.

Kenya’s private sector activity expanded for the majority of the months in 2025, boosted by better performance across all sectors.

This is setting the stage for additional hires in 2026.

A new Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) survey shows that 74 percent of banks and 42 percent of non-bank firms expect to increase staff in 2026.

The survey covered chief executives and senior managers at 400 private sector firms, including 37 commercial banks, 14 microfinance banks and 349 non-bank firms across key sectors.

The hiring optimism is anchored on expectations that economic growth will strengthen in 2026, supported by recovering private sector credit, lower lending rates and sustained macroeconomic stability.

‘Respondents reported mixed expectations about hiring prospects in 2026, with 74 percent of banks and 42 percent of non-bank private firms anticipating staff increases,’ the CBK said.

Agriculture, manufacturing, trade, construction and tourism are expected to lead new hires, driven by planned business growth, diversification and expansion.

The outlook marks a shift from 2025, when firms prioritised job retention and temporary hiring amid weak demand, high taxes and political disruptions.

Companies sustained payrolls even as sales dipped mid-year, choosing to hold on to staff in anticipation of recovery rather than risk costly rehiring.

As demand recovered in the second half of the year, firms added workers cautiously, leaning heavily on short-term contracts that offered flexibility but little job security.

Executives now say easing financial conditions are changing that calculus. Lower lending rates are improving cash flows and stimulating borrowing, allowing firms to revive expansion plans shelved during tighter credit conditions.

The Stanbic Bank Kenya Purchasing Managers’ Index rose to 55.0 in November from 52.5 a month earlier.

Readings above 50.0 indicate growth in business activity, while those below that signal contraction.

November’s figure is the highest since October 2020, the survey showed, as hiring expanded for 10 months through November.

The index was above 50 for seven of the 11 months to November.

Banks are the most optimistic employers, citing stronger credit demand, selective expansion and the need to replace exiting staff.

Non-bank firms are more guarded, balancing growth plans against high operating costs, weak household purchasing power and uncertainty around taxes and government payments.

Transport sector firms remain notably pessimistic about hiring prospects.

Executives cite high logistics costs, port congestion, lengthy clearance processes, elevated freight charges and heavy penalties for delays as barriers to expansion.

‘The transport sector respondents were less optimistic about new hires in 2026 due to sector-specific risks,’ the CBK noted.

Across the economy, firms see recovering private sector credit as central to sustaining both output growth and employment.

Credit growth is expected to strengthen further in 2026 as borrowing costs fall, supporting working capital, asset financing and trade activity.

Cheaper credit is also expected to lift household spending and strengthen order books, reducing reliance on temporary labour.

Executives expect economic growth in 2026 to improve slightly compared with 2025, supported by resilient services, agriculture and government investment in infrastructure.

Stable inflation and a steady exchange rate are giving firms greater planning certainty, a key factor in committing to longer-term hiring.

However, executives warn that fiscal consolidation, high taxation and reduced government spending could still weigh on demand.

Pending bills by national and county governments continue to strain liquidity for suppliers and contractors.

Global uncertainties, including geopolitical tensions and commodity price volatility, also pose risks to business confidence.

‘Not every battle leaves scars on the body. Some take the mind first.’- Unknown

Before we go any further, take a minute and remember the founders you know. Not the famous ones. The real ones. The people you shared meetings with. The ones who called late at night. The ones who were always ‘pushing through,’ always optimistic, always saying they were fine.

Now remember those who are no longer here.

In 2025 alone, many of us lost founders to mental health struggles. Some left quietly. Some left suddenly. Some left under circumstances we still struggle to talk about. These were not weak people. They were builders who carried too much for too long, often alone.

This article is written in their memory, but also for those still standing.

Behind pitch decks, press features, and polished LinkedIn updates lies a quieter reality many founders live with daily. Anxiety that tightens the chest at night.

Depression masked as discipline. Imposter syndrome disguised as relentless work. A constant mental negotiation between ambition and exhaustion. We celebrate resilience loudly, but we rarely interrogate its cost.

Founders often frame pressure purely through business language. Cash-flow gaps. Pending bills. Delayed payments. Broken systems. Politics. Legal Battles. Black tax. Cartels. Failed deals. These are real pressures, especially in our environment, and many of them will not disappear in 2026.

But pressure does not only come from business. Family strain, relationship breakdowns, marital conflict, parenting responsibilities, and unspoken expectations can weigh just as heavily. The founder is still a son or daughter. A partner. A parent. A sibling. When stress at work collides with strain at home, the load compounds quietly. Ignoring one lens while managing the other is how many founders slowly unravel.

One of the most dangerous misunderstandings in entrepreneurship is confusing everything painful with a profit-and-loss problem. Missed revenue hurts. Failed deals sting. Reputational hits bruise the ego. But these are often recoverable. Businesses can be restructured. Loans renegotiated. Deals rebuilt. Even relationships, when engaged early and honestly, can heal.

What is far more fragile are the true balance-sheet items: mental health, close friendships, family bonds, spiritual grounding, and the small circle of people who see you beyond your title.

These are rarely tracked, rarely reviewed, and often taken for granted until they are depleted. When founders feel trapped between public expectation and private pain, without a safe place to breathe, the consequences can be severe.

Research continues to confirm what many founders experience intuitively. Entrepreneurs are significantly more likely than the general population to experience anxiety, depression, burnout, and substance dependence.

The same traits that fuel ambition-high responsibility, optimism, risk tolerance-also increase vulnerability when setbacks accumulate without release. Unlike employees, founders often lack structure, permission, or an off-ramp.

Culture worsens this. We reward bravado and punish vulnerability. We praise endurance and ignore warning signs. We photograph launches but disappear during recovery. We build systems that extract relentlessly, then act surprised when people collapse under them.

Some fundamentals will not change in 2026. Markets will remain unforgiving. Governments will be slow and corrupt. Competition will remain ruthless. Family life will remain complex. Pretending otherwise is naive. What matters is the mindset with which founders confront these realities.

This is where the African Founders Operating System becomes more than philosophy. It becomes a survival framework.

Emotionally, founders must learn to manage their inner world before managing empires. Emotional debt does not disappear when ignored; it compounds. Anxiety unspoken migrates into the body, into relationships, into poor decisions.

Socially, founders must build networks that outlive personalities. Not contacts, but people who notice when you are not okay. People who can sit with discomfort without trying to fix you or judge you.

Strategically, founders must make decisions that remain true beyond their lifetime. Integrity is not a moral add-on. It is sustainability. Short-term wins that destroy trust, health, or values create long-term fragility.

Spiritually, founders must remember why they began. Purpose is not a luxury. It is fuel.

When purpose erodes, work becomes servitude, and servitude without meaning is one of the fastest paths to burnout.

And in mindset, founders must evolve. From builder to steward. From hustling alone to healing together. Leadership is not only about carrying weight. It is about knowing when to put it down.

One uncomfortable truth remains. We set aggressive goals for revenue, growth, and scale, yet rarely set equally deliberate goals for mental and spiritual wellness. We plan quarters but not rest. Forecast cash but not recovery. Track KPIs but ignore warning signs in our own bodies and homes. As 2026 begins, this must change.

Here is a simple starting point.

Write down the names of two or three people you could call if things became overwhelming. People you would not need to perform for. Then call at least one of them this week. Not to offload. Just to reconnect. Safe passages are easier to walk when they already exist.

Set one non-negotiable wellness commitment for the year. Therapy. Spiritual practice. Time with family. Rest without guilt. Protect it like revenue.

Finally, check on someone who crossed your mind as you read this. A simple message can matter more than we realise.

Let us honour those we lost in 2025 not with silence, but with change. Let us build companies without destroying the people building them. And let us enter 2026 with courage not just to grow, but to remain whole.

Because no business outcome, and no expectation-public or private-is worth losing a life.

The author is a serial entrepreneur, founder of Seven Seas and Ponea Health and the creator of Founders’ Battlefield.

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A Business Daily article of December 9, 2025, highlighted increasing waiting times for radiotherapy patients at a major public referral hospital, attributing delays to rising demand, machine overuse, and frequent breakdowns.

While accurate, this is just the tip of the iceberg; beneath it lies a dysfunctional radiotherapy market whose very design constrains access.

Kenya’s radiotherapy sector operates within a paradoxical market structure combining monopoly and oligopoly dynamics. On one side are government-run parastatals and on the other, a small number of private providers. Both supply a homogenous service, radiotherapy, but under different pricing and financing conditions.

The public monopoly is dominated by Kenyatta National Hospital, Kenyatta University Teaching, Referral and Research Hospital, and Moi Teaching and Referral Hospital. These facilities offer radiotherapy at heavily subsidised rates, now further supported by the Social Health Insurance Fund.

Predictably, low prices generate high demand, leading to chronic overutilisation. Capacity constraints mean many patients cannot be accommodated in a timely manner, and machine breakdowns translate into prolonged waiting lists. For most patients, exit options are limited, as private alternatives remain unaffordable.

The private oligopoly comprises a handful of institutions charging significantly higher fees. Insurance coverage offsets only a fraction of these costs, requiring substantial out-of-pocket payments.

Demand is therefore comparatively low, resulting in underutilised capacity. Access is effectively restricted to patients with sufficient financial means, although this segment benefits from shorter waiting times and the ability to transfer between facilities when disruptions occur.

The resulting paradox is stark. Public providers offer affordable care but cannot meet demand, while private facilities possess spare capacity that remains inaccessible to most patients. Fixing radiotherapy inaccessibility crisis therefore calls for market reforms.

Without addressing pricing, insurance design, and public-private integration, Kenya’s radiotherapy access crisis will persist-not from scarcity alone, but from structural misalignment.

The death of former Prime Minister Raila Odinga may have opened a new chapter of uncertainty as the family grapples with how the estate of their patriarch, Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, will ultimately be shared.

The estate includes Jaramogi’s majority stake in the family’s gas cylinder business.

The politically influential Odinga family – through siblings Raila and Oburu Oginga – has for decades jointly managed and shared Jaramogi’s estate, which spans several businesses, among them the gas cylinder company East Africa Spectre.

But with the death of Raila, arguably the most politically dominant figure in the family, questions are emerging over whether this long-standing arrangement – built on shared stewardship of a common inheritance – can endure.

In an interview, Oburu divulged plans to settle the issue of succession, fearing that the next generation of the Odingas might not necessarily enjoy the same cohesion as the current one.

Just before the former Prime Minister died, Oburu recalled calling his brother, where they discussed settling the estate of the Odinga family by ensuring that each member received what was due and leaving no loose ends that could fuel conflict.

‘I was telling him that there are a few things which are outstanding in the family, including the estate, which we had managed with him,’ Oburu, the Siaya Sentor, recalled.

He talked of having reminded his brother while the latter was in a hospital in India that ‘life of a human being is temporary’.

‘If anything happens to you or me, or to both of us, and we all go, these young people – I don’t see them gelling as much as we gel with you,’ Oburu said.

This placed East Africa Spectre, the family’s Mombasa Road-based gas cylinder business that the former Prime Minister started with his father in 1971, in the spotlight.

The estate of Jaramogi, Kenya’s first Vice-President, owns a majority stake – 52.5 percent or 262,500 shares – in East Africa Spectre.

The former Prime Minister owns 90,000 shares or an 18 percent stake. His brother, Oburu, owns 60,000 shares or 12 percent.

Raila’s spouse, Ida Odinga, owns 50,000 shares or a 10 percent stake.

Israel Otieno Agina, the man who spent two years in detention for alleged sedition against former President Daniel arap Moi, owns 30,000 shares or six percent.

The family of the late Argwings Kodhek, the first black lawyer in East Africa, owns 5,000 shares, while the family of former National Oil Corporation of Kenya director Ngesa Okolo holds 2,500 shares.

Raila, his wife Ida, and brother Oburu all have offices at the East Africa Spectre plant.

Shortly after Kenya attained independence, with Jaramogi serving as Vice-President under President Jomo Kenyatta, the two fell out, triggering one of the fiercest political duels in the country’s history – a rift that would see Jaramogi’s financial fortunes wane.

Jaramogi walked out of the government in 1966.

He favoured closer ties with the Soviet Union and China, while Jomo Kenyatta preferred an alliance with the US and other Western powers.

Earlier in his life, Jaramogi also acquired land in North Sakwa (around 140 acres) in the early 1970s – a large rural holding that formed part of the family’s property portfolio. Portions of this land were passed on to family members, including younger sons and daughters who received shares of the estate upon his death.

The Odinga family also faced dramatic financial challenges in the late 1970s, when properties in Kisumu – including buildings, vehicles and other assets – were put up for auction by Macho and Kimaru Auctioneers to recover unpaid loans, nearly driving the family toward bankruptcy. These assets were subsequently redeemed or managed to protect the family estate.

Beyond these holdings, other properties tied to Jaramogi’s legacy – such as ancestral land in Bondo, Siaya County – remain in family hands and are linked to ongoing developments, cultural heritage sites and family residences.

Notable among these is the Jaramogi Oginga Odinga Mausoleum in Bondo, maintained as a public heritage site commemorating his role in Kenya’s independence.

But it is in East Africa Spectre that Jaramogi’s business legacy is most visible. The unlisted company – its valuation not public – has been expanded and managed by his children, including the family of Raila and Oburu.

Just 5.2 kilometres from the Mombasa Road plant lie the memories of another firm the Odinga family set up, but for which fate had a different ending scripted.

Spectre International ceased operations in 2017, leaving behind a trail of debt to multiple creditors, including staff who negotiated a Sh44 million pay deal after suing in the same year.

Spectre International was incorporated in 1989, and six years later bid Sh570 million for the assets of the Kenya Chemical and Food Corporation (KCFC).

Former President Jomo Kenyatta had created the KCFC in 1977 to produce power alcohol.

In 2000, Raila and President Daniel Arap Moi entered a political pact, which saw the former appointed Energy minister a year later.

Around the same time, KCB’s receiver manager reached an agreement to sell the 240-acre land hosting the molasses plant to Spectre International for Sh3.6 million.

The absence of clear succession plans is often at the heart of conflicts among leading families when their patriarchs die, a fate that the Odinga family is keen to avoid.

Studies consistently show that most families do not have succession plans, and even where they do, the next generation is rarely fully prepared.

Raila, Jaramogi’s second-born son who studied engineering in Germany, carved out a distinct niche in deal-making, helping to grow Spectra while also venturing into other business interests.

Around the time Raila struck a truce with President William Ruto amid anti-tax protests, the Odinga family quietly opened a larger branch of East Africa Spectre near the Industrial and Commercial Development Corporation (ICDC), underscoring the parallel track on which his businesses run.

Be Energy, a petroleum dealer, is the other business owned by the late Raila’s family.

In 2020, Be Energy controlled 2.4 percent of the market share. By 2022, the firm was controlling 3.1 percent of the oil market. In the 2024/25 financial year, that control grew to 3.52 per cent after selling 205,369 cubic metres of petroleum products.

Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (Epra) disclosures indicate that it is currently the fifth-biggest oil marketer in Kenya, only behind the big four multinationals – Vivo Energy (Shell), Rubis Energy, TotalEnergies and Ola Energy.

Be Energy exports petrol, diesel, kerosene, jet fuel and oil lubricants to South Sudan, Uganda, Burundi, Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Raila and his family own 2,801 shares in Be Energy Limited through Pan African Petroleum Company Ltd.

The family of Saudi Arabian tycoon Sheikh Abdul Kader Al Bakri is the majority owner, with 5,201 shares held through their International Energy World S.A.

Pan African Petroleum Company is owned by Raila Odinga Junior (25,000 shares), Rosemary Adhiambo Odinga (50,000 shares), Winnie Irmgard Odinga (25,000 shares), Elija Bonyo Oburu (125,000 shares), Wenwa Akinyi Oranga (25,000 shares) and Kango Enterprises (250,000 shares).

Kango Enterprises is wholly owned by Raila and his wife, Ida. They each have 100 shares in Kango Enterprises.

The former Prime Minister’s son, named after him, runs Be Energy’s Kenyan operations.

Sipping cognac or Prosecco while watching the fireworks in Nairobi’s skyline was never a thing. Hotels in the city used to curate New Year’s Eve dinners mostly around music and food, but not selling fireworks displays as part of the package.

The wealthy Kenyans who wanted this view would book holidays in Manhattan, New York or stay at hotels overlooking the Hudson/East Rivers in the US or Burj Khalifa in Dubai, for fireworks. Some would go to Coast.

Fireworks have now become a thing. Be in malls hoping to pull in foot traffic who are likely to shop as they wait for fireworks or hotels seeking wealthy diners.

Serena Hotels, Safari Park Hotel, and Kwetu by Hilton were among the hotels whose dinners with fireworks drew impressive numbers.

By Tuesday, the booking at Safari Park, which welcomed 500 guests, was at 75 per cent according to Samson Mwangangi, the assistant sales and marketing manager.

‘[It is] showing good signs. We have Sanaipei [Tande] here. We’ll have the fireworks and everything,’ he said, ‘there are people who are booking just to come for the fireworks and dinner, but now we have the accommodation; people who are on the all-inclusive [package] who want to go over for the dinner. The all-inclusive was very good in terms of numbers.’

This is the third year that Safari Park is offering a New Year carnival, and Mr Mwangangi said the reception shows a ready clientele.

‘We started picking up slowly, but now we feel like this year is really the peak,’ he said.

At Serena Hotels, crossover dinners and fireworks will be held at the establishments in Nairobi and Mombasa. Those in wildlife areas keep off fireworks lest they spook the animals.

James Manyeki, the marketing manager at Serena Hotels Kenya, told BDLife that at the Nairobi Serena, there would be ‘a live band music, and there will be fireworks.’

Mr Mwangangi said the capacity was 250, and that by noon on Wednesday, 235 had booked.

‘The fireworks display at Serena has always been an excellent choice. It is very competitive. Last year, it was ranked as one of the top five firework displays,’ he said when asked why the demand was high.

‘Our 2025 New Year’s Eve fireworks dinner is fully booked. We wanted to go big, bringing together fireworks by the pool, DJ music, and a family-style buffet,’ said Mourine Oloo, director of brand and marketing at Kwetu Nairobi, Curio Collection By Hilton, adding, ‘our rooftop bar and restaurant is also fully booked, underscoring what has been a remarkable end to the year.’

Some of the hotels charging up to Sh18,000 per couple, and by Tuesday the dinner slots had been snapped up.

Shopping malls

Malls also brought out their A game. Imaara Mall, for instance, which drew huge numbers on December 24’s fireworks, has been running a campaign encouraging patrons to cross over to 2026 at CJ’s Restaurant, one of its tenants. It has also promised a rhumba party and a night of afrobeat and amapiano music.

Two Rivers Mall, on the other hand, ran a campaign promoting its food souk – a market that features many vendors selling different types of food.

The New Year fireworks display will last 30 minutes.

Meanwhile, at Sarit Centre, the establishment made the New Year’s Eve all about entertainment. At its expo centre, versatile Asian musician Rohan Mukati was set to hold a show in Kenya for the first time. Sarit Centre was selling tickets to the event.

Fireworks in estates

Besides gatherings to welcome the New Year, Kenyans also go big on firework displays at their homes and corporate spaces, a trend that brings brisk business to those who deal in the aesthetically explosive products.

Brian Musee, the owner of Miles High Fireworks in Nairobi, has been in the business since 2019.

‘It has not been so different from other years because people have been celebrating year in, year out. So, the demand has just been like it has been . since we started in 2019, only that now we have improved our delivery because, over the years, we’ve been learning,’ he said.

According to Mr Musee, the fireworks that fly off the shelves fastest are medium-range products like rockets and prompt tanks, popularly known as baruti.

‘Most of our customers are families who want options that are safe and won’t make too much noise. But hotels, corporations and businesses also take part in celebrations, so they go for bigger packages. Basically, everyone in Kenya is celebrating,’ he said, pointing to a trend where individual and corporate celebrations often overlap.

Safety, he emphasised, is non-negotiable.

‘Our staff are adequately trained for firework handling and safety. We don’t sell to children who are not accompanied by adults, because only adults can follow instructions properly. Every customer is given detailed guidance on how to handle fireworks safely, and we also provide emergency procedures in case anything goes wrong,’ explained Mr Musee.

Even the smallest items like firecrackers that cost a few hundred shillings, come with safety instructions to ensure every celebration is accident-free.

Mr Musee was also excited about the emerging trend of coordinated firework shows, a novelty that is quickly gaining traction in Kenya.

‘The biggest trend reaching our country now is firework shows. Many businesses want the best shows, and we provide professional technicians to organise them. This year, we’re running over 15 shows across the country, all professionally coordinated. There’s a difference between a simple firework and a proper firework show, and that’s what we’re focusing on,’ he said, hinting at a shift in the industry towards large-scale, visually spectacular displays.

He said that the business faces challenges, but his company has found ways to manage them.

‘Demand has always been high, but previously we struggled with capacity, limited outlets and staff. This year, we’ve expanded with outlets in Nairobi, Meru, Mombasa, and Nakuru, so we’re able to handle the peak season better. The main challenge now is just making sure we keep up with the high expectations of our customers.’

Looking ahead, Mr Musee sees the fireworks market in Kenya continuing to grow.

‘We definitely expect it to grow further. In the next five years, fireworks won’t just be about individual items; you’ll see entire coordinated shows becoming the standard. We want to be the biggest fireworks show company in the country, setting a new benchmark for celebrations,’ he said.

Affordability, he added, is key to making fireworks accessible for all: ‘Our price ranges are very fair, from as low as Sh10 to as high as infinity. If you even have a budget of a million, no matter your budget, you can enjoy fireworks.’

For Mr Musee, the combination of safety, variety, and spectacle is what keeps Kenyans coming back for more.

When highs and lows are guaranteed in life and in investing, coaches and financial advisors would call for stoicism-never getting too high or too low on outcomes.

Investors in cryptocurrencies have been on a roller-coaster in 2025, experiencing the highest of highs and the lowest of lows, all packed in 12 short months.

Bitcoin, the premiere cryptocurrency touched an all time high of $124,752 (about Sh16 million) on October 6, 2025, but has since lost almost one third of its value, plunging to $87,338 (Sh11.2 million) as of December 23, 2025.

Despite their proposition as a hedge during periods of uncertainties, investor jitters have been the greatest undoing for the asset class as doubts on the path of US interest rates and lofty tech stocks valuations spill over into crypto.

For the nearly one million Kenyans invested in cryptocurrencies, 2025’s highs and lows have been a comparable test of faith in an asset class often qualified as high risk by critics.

According to data from Statista, the number of cryptocurrencies users in Kenya was projected to reach 733,300 this year, growing from just 10,000 users eight years ago in 2017.

Global cryptocurrency exchange Bybit ranked Kenya as the world’s fifth-largest market by cryptocurrency transaction volumes in its 2025 World Crypto Rankings.

Only Ukraine, the United States, Nigeria and Vietnam ranked higher, underlining the thriving cryptocurrencies ecosystem in the country.

Holders of the digital asset in Kenya are keeping the faith against market swings, avoiding a fire sale of the currencies which have delivered mega gains in the past.

Between 2015 and 2025, Bitcoin has risen by over 200-fold or 20,184 percent from its December 1, 2015, price-a mere $430.57 (Sh55,517).

The year 2017 delivered the largest upswing in the cryptocurrency, rallying 1,368 percent from $963.74 to $14,156.40 according to data compiled by Yahoo Finance. Investors in the asset class have known when to bundle up and avoid getting frostbite including the mega 2022 slump which was dubbed the crypto winter.

Bitcoin fell by 64.2 percent to $16,547.50 from $46,306.45 as Sam Bankman-Fried founded crypto exchange FTX went burst.

Theo Mwangi a techie based in Nairobi invested in cryptocurrencies for the first time in 2018 when he worked for a blockchain hub.

Today, he reckons that about 40 percent of his investments are held in cryptocurrencies with the figure rising further when stablecoins are added to the mix.

He takes the recent plunge by cryptocurrencies in stride bracing for further volatility in 2026 but expecting the market to turn at some point down the line.

Theo perfectly fits what can be termed in the cryptocurrency community as holders.

HODL is a popular term in the cryptocurrency community that began with the misspelling of the word ‘HOLD’ but has evolved into a rallying call and an investment strategy with HODL becoming an acronym for Hold On for Deal Life.

‘I see a pump around March-April because of the US primaries, but after that I expect another year of sideways movement and possibly lower prices. I see a pickup happening towards 2028 from historical trends,’ he says.

‘Holding (holding in crypto terms) is a good strategy over a long-time frame, say four years where a minimum 2x (two-fold) gain is always achieved. The 2028 halving event will likely take Bitcoin above $500,000 (Sh64.4 billion).’

The supply of Bitcoin falls by half every four years (the halving) reducing the supply of the cryptocurrency which is usually expected to result in higher prices when demand for the digital asset is sustained.

Theo supports his view on cryptocurrencies based on his understanding of the value provided by the technology and its adoption by legacy institutions.

According to him, only a fraction of the global population is invested in cryptocurrencies now, but the number is set to rise.

Peter Mwangi, the country manager of YellowCard, a provider of stablecoins infrastructure is another crypto bull, having invested in the digital assets even earlier than Theo in 2016.

Having seen bouts of market downturn, Mwangi who only holds Bitcoin is sticking in as he foresees mega returns and value over the long-term.

‘Bitcoin is an asset I have held for a long time. For the last five years, I have made at least a 20 percent annual return. It could fluctuate and I have experienced it before,’ he says.

‘I believe that Bitcoin will rally to $1 million (Sh128.9 million). I am holding onto the asset until it changes my life.’

The return of President Donald Trump to USA’s White House was seen ushering a new era for digital assets with the administration being seen as more receptive to the industry.

Trump has come good on supporting the industry by legislating the Genius Act which paves way for the legalisation of stablecoins- a form of cryptocurrency that holds its value at a ratio 1:1 with fiat money like US dollars.

He has also made appointments of officials in regulatory agencies who are seen as pro-crypto, instilling confidence for the industry bulls.

Some of Trump’s policies have, however, done some damage on the asset class this year including the setting of tariffs which has added to geo-political tensions-a catalyst for the cryptocurrency rout in 2025.

Cryptocurrencies have also made waves in traditional finance with the world’s largest asset fund manager, BlackRock for instance creating a crypto exchange traded fund which owns about 780,000 bitcoins.

US lender JPMorgan Chase is on its part considering lending against clients’ crypto holdings.

The selloff of cryptocurrencies by institutional investors has rattled market participants as their exit is seen as weightier than the historical speculation of retail investors.

The Kenyan government has also made moves to embrace digital assets by passing the Virtual Assets Service Providers Act, which sets the ground for the regulation of cryptocurrencies including setting modalities for the issuance of local coins and stablecoins in the future.

Novice cryptocurrency investors have however found themselves with an even rockier 2025 as fraud perforates the industry.

Thousands of Kenyans have alleged foul play after a cryptocurrency platform promoted by a senior Seventh-day Adventist (SDA) pastor collapsed, wiping out investments estimated in the millions of shillings.

Earlier in December, users of the crypto and forex trading platform known as Optcoin woke up over the December 14 weekend to find that the platform had disappeared and were directed to a new one requiring at least Sh24,000 in registration fees per user to unlock lost funds.

This came about six months after another popular cryptocurrency and forex trading platform CBEX went bust with client accounts emptied.

‘Today morning, I woke up with like $6,000 (Sh773,640) in my crypto wallet. But around 7pm, it had been cleared to zero,’ an investor told the Business Daily in April.

The total wipeout of investor funds through some trading platforms has revealed the proliferation of fraud in the industry ahead of authorities including the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) and the Capital Markets Authority (CMA) swoop to drain the swamp and curb malpractices in the ecosystem.

With the rollout of senior school in 2026, tutor shortage in Kenya is expected to deepen due to insufficient funding of the Teachers Service Commission (TSC).

A biting staff shortage in schools has resulted in burnout, crowded classrooms and a lack of subject specialists required for the proper implementation of the Competency-Based Education (CBE).

A recent report by Usawa Agenda and Zizi Afrique paints a picture of a stretched education system, with a teacher deficit of more than 100,000 across the ladder – from early childhood centres to technical training institutions.

This is despite the country having nearly 40,000 registered experienced and qualified teachers aged 45 and above but not employed by the TSC.

‘There is still a deficit of at least 72,000 teachers in junior school. That, obviously, is a matter of concern, yet the commission can only employ as many teachers as taxpayers can afford,’ said Mr Peter Kega, a TSC official at the Directorate of Teacher Professional Management, during a recent stakeholder forum.

The TSC was given Sh387.7 billion in the current financial year, with several key areas such as the conversion of interns to permanent and pensionable terms, remaining unfunded.

Mr Kega added that the commission is exploring ways to utilise teachers in primary school, now that the number of classes has been reduced from eight to six.

The teacher gap in junior school came to the bare when the Kenya Kwanza government took the decision to domicile Grades Seven, Eight and Nine in primary instead of secondary school as had been planned by the Jubilee administration under then-president Uhuru Kenyatta.

The previous government had invested billions of shillings in building classrooms in secondary schools to accommodate the anticipated increase in learner numbers.

TSC had focused more on hiring secondary school teachers. The abrupt shift to domicile junior school in primary schools caught the commission unprepared in terms of teacher adequacy and capacity.

‘We are not so much concerned about the transition to senior school because the 130,899 teachers in secondary schools will soon be handling senior school learners,’ Mr Kega said.

Even with recent recruitment, the commission appears unable to keep pace with the growing demand of the CBE, which requires subject specialists.

During a question-and-answer session in the Senate, Murang’a Senator Joe Nyutu demanded to be informed why junior school teachers were being assigned subjects outside their areas of training.

The senator said it was a matter of concern, given its impact on instructional quality, content accuracy and learners’ preparedness for the three senior school career pathways.

A study by the People’s Action for Learning (PAL) Network found that not all children who reach Grade Nine in low and middle-income countries can read with comprehension or perform basic arithmetic.

In response, Education Cabinet Secretary Julius Ogamba said measures were being taken to address the challenge, including reserving 60 percent of upcoming recruitment for Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM)-trained teachers.

The government says it plans to hire 24,000 teachers by January 2026, bringing the total number recruited by the current administration to 100,000.

‘Over the past two years, the TSC has recruited 76,000 teachers and contracted 20,000 junior school interns to deliver the curriculum,’ TSC Acting CEO Eveleen Mitei said during the release of the 2025 Kenya Junior School Education Assessment (KJSEA) results.

Due to budgetary constraints, the commission is unable to hire intern teachers on permanent and pensionable terms, resulting in discontent, low morale and even court cases.

A junior school teacher recently moved to court to challenge TSC’s decision to extend internship contracts from 12 to 24 months, amid claims of favouritism in confirming some.

There are reports of interns of a previous cohort being hired on permanent and pensionable terms after working for only a year.

A TSC report tabled before the Senate Committee on National Cohesion, Equal Opportunity and Regional Integration showed that five ethnic communities – Kalenjin, Luhya, Kamba, Kikuyu and Luo – secured more than two-thirds of the recent applications for junior school teachers.

The report indicates that 67 percent of the 68,313 JSS teachers hired during the Kenya Kwanza administration came from these five communities, with the Kalenjin taking the largest share at 15.7 percent (10,769), despite accounting for just 13 percent of the country’s population.

The Luhya came second at 15.3 percent (10,466), followed by Kamba at 13.9 percent (9,557), Kikuyu at 12.8 percent (8,799) and the Luo at 12.7 percent or 8,721.

Claims of bias have also emerged regarding the recruitment of older teachers.

In May, lawmakers raised concerns that the commission had been overlooking a significant pool of experienced and qualified teachers just because they were aged 45 and above.

A ruling by the Employment and Labour Relations Court in 2019 found the age restriction by the TSC discriminatory and in violation of the right to equal opportunity.

The National Assembly Committee on Education maintains that a teacher can be recruited up to two years before retirement, noting that it is not an individual’s fault for not being employed earlier.