Category: Business Daily

Kenyan Eurobond yields have eased in recent weeks, defying jitters which have seen interest rates on similar instruments from advanced economies like Japan and the US rise.

The falling yields is a signal of Kenya’s opportunity to raise cash cheaply in the internal capital markets through instruments like Eurobond.

Yields on all but one Eurobond have fallen since the US Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate earlier this month, the first since July 2023, maintaining debt affordability for Kenya which seeks to return to the markets later this year with a Sh105.8 billion ($815 million) new Eurobond.

The 11-year Eurobond maturing in 2036 has registered the largest yield contraction at 0.165 percentage points, falling to 9.087 percent on September 24 from 9.252 percent on September 15.

The 12-year Eurobond maturing in 2038 also fell by 0.1 percentage points while other Eurobonds registered declines of between 0.041 and 0.09 percentage points. The 12-year 2032 Eurobond was the only to buck the trend, as its yield rose by 0.024 percent in the period.

The ease in the Eurobond yields, which contrasts sharply with rising interest rates on bonds in advanced economies, has been attributed to sustained appetites for risk by global investors alongside improved fundamentals for emerging and frontier economies like Kenya.

‘Compression of credit spreads has been broad-based but sharpest among low-rated sovereigns, aided by earlier Federal Reserve easing,’ said analysts at global credit rating agency Moody’s in a note.

‘Despite renewed policy-tightening risks, recent balance-sheet repair, stronger policy frameworks and favourable commodity terms of trade support EM (emerging markets) resilience.’

A credit spread refers to the extra yield or interest rate that investors demand for taking on the risk of a riskier bond with the same maturity date.

In this case, the spread refers to the return offered by an instrument like a 10-year dollar bond issued by Kenya versus the return paid by a similar US bond.

Kenya has seen improved economic fundamentals in the past year despite emerging shocks like the US-Iran crisis where stability has been underpinned by recent credit rating upgrades.

In January this year, Moody’s upgraded Kenya’s long-term foreign currency sovereign credit rating from ‘Caa1’ to ‘B3’, noting that the country’s near-term risk of default had fallen.

The agency also noted that Kenya’s external liquidity position had improved, supported by higher-foreign exchange reserves, a narrower current account deficit and a stable currency.

S and P Global Ratings also revised Kenya’s long-term sovereign credit rating from ‘B-‘ to ‘B’, with a stable outlook in August last year, while the short-term sovereign credit rating was affirmed at ‘B’.

Since the start of the Middle East war in March 2026, Kenya has seen a deterioration in some of its fundamentals like the current account deficit, as costlier fuel inflates imports, resulting in a wider trade deficit.

Other fundamentals like the exchange rate have held steady supported by resilient foreign exchange reserves which have recently been topped by the State’s sale of a 15 percent stake in Safaricom to Vodacom and proceeds from Sh97.2 billion ($750 million) financing from the World Bank at the end of June.

Kenya’s foreign currency reserves closed last week at Sh1.95 trillion ($15 billion) or an equivalent 6.1-month import cover.

The lower Eurobond yields are a pivotal measure of debt affordability for Kenya in the international capital markets as it prepares to issue a new Eurobond by December.

The National Treasury annual borrowing plan for the 2026/27 cycle pencils an issuance of Sh105.8 billion ($815 million) in the second quarter of the current fiscal year.

Bond yields in advanced economies like the US and Japan have seen a significant jump in recent weeks on worsening fiscal and inflation outlooks.

Last week, the US 30-year bond hit its highest level since before the 2008/09 financial crisis underlining the demand for greater compensation by investors.

The US Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate for the first time in more than three years on rebounding cost pressures from the Iran war while the country is also expected to fund a wider budget deficit.

Higher US Treasury yields are however expected to prop up overall borrowing costs for emerging and frontier economies like Kenya, in the long-term.

‘Despite narrower credit spreads, overall external borrowing costs for many emerging markets sovereigns remained steep because of large US debt issuance, higher real rates and a fading convenience yield-the value that investors place on liquidity and safety-have contributed to higher US Treasury yields and offset much of the benefit from spread compression,’ Moody’s added.

In May, Dangote Petroleum Refinery returned to court in Lagos. It asked the Federal High Court to strike down petrol import licences that Nigeria’s downstream regulator had just granted to the state oil company and six private marketers, allowing 720,000 tonnes of petrol into a country that now has Africa’s largest single-train refinery on its own coast.

The dispute is about the meaning of one clause. Section 317(9) of Nigeria’s Petroleum Industry Act, 2021 requires the regulator to promote local refining and allows it to license imports only where domestic supply falls short.

Dangote reads that as an obligation: once it can supply the market, imports must stop.

The regulator and the state oil company read it as a discretion: imports remain lawful whenever they are needed to keep the country supplied. The state oil company went further, telling the court that the refinery’s prices were high and unstable, and that imports had to continue to keep a monopoly at bay. The case is due for hearing on October 7.

On Monday this week, a different court gave a different answer. Three of the marketers had sued the regulator, complaining that it had issued their import licences irregularly, and had at times refused to renew them. The court in Abuja agreed, held that the refusal was in direct breach of the Act and ordered the regulator to keep issuing them once the statutory conditions are met.

So Nigeria now has one court asked to cancel import licences and another ordering that they be issued. A third case, over whether the regulator may even inspect a refinery sitting in a free zone, waits on another judge.

Two legitimate principles are in conflict. The first says once a local refinery can supply the market, the market should be left to reward efficiency.

The second says a strategic national investment should not be undone by cheaper cargo from abroad. Nigeria’s law does not say which one wins, or when, so the courts must decide.

Every regulator in East Africa will read the Lagos judgment, because it will be among the first in Africa to say if a local-refining clause gives a refiner the right to exclude imports. Pure protection would create a private monopoly with the blessing of the state.

Pure laissez-faire might starve a strategic plant. The sound answer lies between; protection conditional on best value for the consumer. Kenya faces the same choice, and sooner than many suppose. Ground is to be broken in Lamu today for a 700,000-barrel-a-day Dangote refinery costed about $16 billion, with 30 percent of it offered to Kenya and two of its neighbours.

The plant deserves our support. However, the investor has asked for protection against cheap refined imports, while the rules on pricing, offtake and the rights of state shareholders are still to be written. Support must come through law, not litigation.

There is a harder question beneath that one. A state that has put public money into a plant will be expected to buy from it, and the government has indicated that it would stand behind any shortfall in the offtake commitments of the region.

But what happens on the day an imported cargo lands in Mombasa cheaper than the product refined in Lamu? Does Kenya buy the dearer barrel to protect its investment, or the cheaper one to protect motorists? President Yoweri Museveni put that question to the region two weeks ago, though from the other end. He said Uganda had for years bought fuel through middlemen in Kenya at prices it should never have paid, and cut its costs the moment it began sourcing for itself.

Whatever one makes of the exchange that followed, the principle is the right one: no state should pay more for fuel out of loyalty to an arrangement, and a refinery that is a partner in one decade can become the middleman of the next. The answer is to write the trade-off down before the money goes in.

Every shareholder state’s offtake commitment should be capped in volume, priced at no more than import parity and reviewed on a fixed cycle. If the refinery beats the world price, the commitment costs nothing. If it cannot, the shortfall is a subsidy, and a subsidy must be voted by Parliament and shown in the budget, not buried in a shareholders’ agreement.

The timing makes the matter more pressing. Kenya’s government-to-government fuel arrangement with the Gulf suppliers, brought in as a stop-gap in 2023 and extended year by year since, is running to the end of this year, and the country must decide what follows it.

That decision cannot be taken in isolation. Kenya cannot bind itself to buy Gulf product on long credit terms and, at the same time, promise the same barrels to Lamu; nor should it revert to the Open Tender System (OTS) without asking how a domestic refinery fits within it.

Expiry of the arrangement presents an opportunity. The rules that replace it should be written with the refinery in view, so that Kenya does not find itself paying twice for the same product, or bound to one supplier just as it acquires another.

Nigeria also shows how the loading gantry can be turned into an instrument of control. In late August, the Lekki refinery stopped selling petrol to the six marketers who hold import licences and turned instead to those who do not import.

The plant that competes with imports can also decide who may buy its product. Kenya’s downstream sector is built on many oil marketing companies trading under the OTS, most without large depots. If Lamu may choose its customers, the independents become second-tier buyers paying a second margin, and the motorist never sees the benefit of local refining.

An open door at the port with a closed gate at the gantry is still protection. None of this can be done by agreement alone. Kenya’s energy laws were written for a country that imports every litre it burns, and they must now be realigned to a country that will refine its own. The Energy Act, 2019 gives the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority its powers over the petroleum business, but says nothing about how a dominant local refinery is to be licensed, priced or held to open access.

The pricing regulations under it fix the pump price from an imported landed cost; that formula has no meaning once the product is made in Lamu. The OTS will need a place for local product without shutting the door to a cheaper cargo. The Special Economic Zones Act, 2015 must be read, and if need be amended, so that its incentives never displace the powers of the safety standards and environmental regulators.

The Competition Act, 2010 must reach a plant that will hold most of the region’s refining capacity. The Public Finance Management Act, 2012 must govern any offtake guarantee the republic gives. Because refined products are taxed at the border under the East African Community customs law, any protection Kenya promises must be squared with its partners before it is promised.

The measure for every one of these changes is the same: not what the investor asks for, nor what the market would prefer, but the national energy security interest of Kenya. That means a secure supply, at the lowest sustainable price, from more than one source, under a regulator whose powers run everywhere the product does.

A refinery serves that interest when it is one pillar of supply. It undermines it when it becomes the only one. The task, then, is to legislate what Nigeria is now litigating.

Five terms belong in the host government agreement, and in law, before any final investment decision. First, open and non-discriminatory access to the refinery gantry, at a published price, for every licensed oil marketing company that meets safety and credit criteria.

Second, a pricing rule anchored on best value for the consumer, perhaps crude cost plus a regulated and audited refining margin. Any protection must depend on the refinery beating import parity.

Third is structural separation. Kenya Pipeline Company must remain an independent, regulated carrier and the refinery should not own the pipeline and a dominant retail network. Fourth, a strategic import window of 10 to 15 per cent kept open after commissioning, to cover maintenance shutdowns, maintain price stability and give the shareholder states a measured route to cheaper product when Lamu cannot match it.

Fifth is full regulatory reach. Whatever special economic zone status the plant enjoys, the energy, standards and environmental regulators must keep their full powers to inspect, sample and enforce.

The lesson from Lagos is not that Nigeria failed. It is that when the law leaves a question open, the courts must answer it, and they answer it one case at a time. Nigeria built first and is now settling the rules through litigation.

Kenya still has time to settle them before it builds. If we anchor those rules on the national energy security interest and best value for the consumer, Lamu can be what it promises. If we do not, we shall find ourselves asking the same questions, in our own courts.

Kenya will acquire extra shares beyond the 10 percent the country has been allocated in Aliko Dangote’s Lamu refinery if other East African countries opt out or buy few stocks.

The regional governments have been offered up to 30 percent of the refinery, with Kenya’s allocation set at 10 percent as Ethiopia and Rwanda expressed interest in getting a piece of the Sh2 trillion refinery, whose construction begins Wednesday.

National Treasury Cabinet Secretary John Mbadi said Kenya could raise its stake if neighbouring countries fail to exercise their equity options in the refinery that is projected to process 700,000 barrels of crude daily.

‘If other governments are not going to take up, we can increase that and have more for Kenya and even have individual investors,’ Mr Mbadi said on Tueday.

Kenya’s 10 percent stake is an equivalent of around Sh200 billion investment.

Mr Mbadi did not disclose when Kenya would buy the shares or the source of funds for the proposed shareholding.

He added that the ownership structure has not been finalised, with the government first focused on getting the Nigerian investor to start building the refinery.

‘What is important is we are putting up a refinery for East Africa. The investor identified and has the confidence to invest in the economy,’ the minister said.

Kenya recently established the National Infrastructure Fund (NIF), which is a corporate investment vehicle designed to finance large-scale public projects through a market-driven model rather than relying on national budget allocations and sovereign debt.

The Lamu project is being developed by the Nigerian billionaire Dangote with backing of the Africa Finance Corporation (AFC).

The groundbreaking is after months of negotiations over ownership, financing and regional participation.

The refinery is planned for land within the Lamu Port-South Sudan-Ethiopia Transport (LAPSSET) corridor and will form part of a wider petrochemical complex incorporating related industries and infrastructure.

It is expected to process crude from Kenya’s South Lokichar fields alongside supplies from other parts of East Africa, southern Africa and international markets, with the port of Lamu providing a maritime link.

The refinery is expected to serve a regional market that remains heavily dependent on imported petroleum products, with the project intended to increase local refining capacity and strengthen fuel supply chains.

Kenya’s participation comes as the country prepares to begin commercial crude production in Turkana, with the first oil targeted for December and initial exports expected in early 2027.

Kenya’s initial crude output will, however, be far below the refinery’s planned capacity, meaning the plant will require additional crude from other producers and international markets to operate at scale. Dangote said governments investing in the project, including Kenya and Rwanda, would be allowed to spread payments for their equity stakes over four years.

‘We have made it very simple and easy for them to fund their own equity. They are not putting their equity in one day,’ he said, adding Rwanda had sought a 10 percent stake, a request that is being discussed.

Other countries besides Kenya and Rwanda have also expressed interest in investing in ?the refinery, Dangote said, without naming them.

The Lamu refinery will source crude from regional producers, including Kenya, which is racing to begin oil production from its own deposits, as well as from overseas suppliers in the Middle East and the United States, Dangote said.

‘You don’t go and build a refinery for only one source of crude. ?You take different types: Middle Eastern crude, American, WTI, so you mix them up,’ he said, adding he expects annual revenues of $30 billion (Sh3.87 trillion) from the Lamu refinery.

The groundbreaking marks the formal start of a project that Dangote says will take about three years to construct, putting potential commissioning to around 2030.

The shareholding offer opens the door for individual investors to participate, potentially broadening ownership of one of the continent’s biggest planned energy investments.

Kenya at the moment has no operating refinery of comparable scale, while the former refinery in Mombasa has remained mothballed after shifting to an import-storage and distribution model.

The government estimates the project could create about 60,000 jobs, though the final number will depend on the scale of construction and associated industries that materialise around the refinery.

The investment is also expected to increase activity at Lamu port, which will handle construction cargo, crude imports and petroleum products while strengthening the commercial case for the wider LAPSSET corridor.

The port of Lamu has three operational berths, while subsequent development is expected to include liquid-bulk facilities that could support petroleum handling and other industrial activity around the refinery.

The investment comes as Dangote expands his African refining business, with his 650,000-barrel-a-day Lekki refinery in Nigeria already operating and serving as the model for the Kenyan facility.

Investors in collapsed e-commerce startup Copia Kenya are unlikely to recover anything as the company heads into liquidation after its assets were found to be insufficient to meet its liabilities.

“As of March this year, Copia’s realisable assets stood at Sh206.6 million, while its liabilities ‘substantially exceed that amount,’ according to court filings by the company’s administrators seen by the Business Daily.

The company had raised $123 million (Sh15.9 billion) across eight funding rounds, making it one of Kenya’s most-funded technology startups.

Its investors include the Kenyan venture capital firm Enza Capital, UK-based Lightrock, the US International Development Finance Corporation, Netherlands-based Goodwell Investments and Dutch family-backed impact investor DOB Equity.

Copia was founded in 2012 by former Silicon Valley executives Tracey Turner and Jonathan Lewis. Its model used digitally enabled, locally based agents as order and delivery points, allowing rural consumers to order products through the platform.

The startup expanded rapidly and attracted substantial investor backing before its funding difficulties forced it to scale back operations.

After Copia’s collapse, Ms Turner and Mr Lewis jointly started another e-commerce firm known as Stahili, owned by Copia’s US-based holding company, Copia Holding Company. Stahili is described as an online consumer-data analysis company.

Copia failed to secure additional funding as 2024 began, laid off over 1,000 workers and was placed under administration in May that year.

The administrators, Julius Ngonga and Makenzi Muthusi, of audit firm KPMG, later proposed liquidating the firm, saying the firm could no longer be sustained as a going concern.

But the move has been delayed after two suppliers moved to court to challenge the liquidation, arguing that it would add administrative costs without improving the outcome for unsecured creditors – businesses or lenders that provide money, goods or services without holding a legal claim over specific assets as collateral.

The High Court has struck out the case and appointed Mr Ngonga and Mr Muthusi as joint liquidators of the collapsed startup.

‘Julius Mumo Ngonga and Anthony Makenzi Muthusi are hereby appointed as the Joint Liquidators of Copia Kenya Limited (In Liquidation),’ the court said in a liquidation order dated September 17, 2026.

Under liquidation, the appointed liquidator identifies and sells a company’s assets and distributes the proceeds to creditors according to the law.

Secured creditors, such as banks holding collateral, are paid first, followed by preferential creditors including employees.

Unsecured creditors are paid thereafter, but they receive nothing if assets are insufficient.

A company’s investors are paid last because the law treats them as equity claimants, not creditors.

They only receive a payout if there is a surplus after all liquidation costs and liabilities are fully satisfied, which means Copia’s assets will not cover the billions of shillings investors had pumped into the e-commerce firm.

After preferential claims and liquidation costs, including liquidators’ remuneration, statutory advertising and professional fees, Copia’s unsecured creditors are unlikely to receive any distribution. The administrators have estimated creditors’ claims and administration costs at Sh169.5 million, leaving little for paying creditors with preferential (priority) claims.

Tuffsteel Limited is owed Sh13.3 million for goods and services supplied to the company, while Jastan Traders Limited is owed Sh793,022.

Tuffsteel had opposed the proposed liquidation without full disclosure and accountability over Copia’s assets and liabilities, the asset realisation process undertaken during administration, any disposal or transfer of assets, the company’s financial records and the conduct of its directors and administrators.

The supplier also argued that there was a risk of the company’s assets being dissipated, concealed, transferred or improperly disposed of, and sought orders restricting such transactions pending a full accounting and verification process. Jastan also opposed liquidation unless safeguards were put in place to protect unsecured creditors and ensure their claims were properly accounted for.

The court, however, found no evidence of wrongdoing by the administrators.

‘Neither affidavit identifies specific evidence demonstrating that the Joint Administrators acted fraudulently, dishonestly, in bad faith or in breach of any express provision of the Insolvency Act,’ the High Court said.

You’re on your way to a job interview and have your water bottle or coffee with you. Do you walk into the interview carrying it, given that most office workers carry one anyway?

It might seem like a small detail but, on TikTok, a recruiter expressed her dismay at GenZs showing up to interviews with a takeout drink.

HR and etiquette experts say that while it may seem like a minor detail, it can contribute to the overall first impression a candidate makes.

‘If two candidates are closely matched, softer factors such as communication, interpersonal skills and professional etiquette could become relevant,’ he adds.

‘The interview starts from the moment a candidate enters the room. Yes, recruiters may notice a candidate carrying a beverage, but it would not influence their assessment on one’s qualifications and attributes such as communication, teamwork and leadership,’ says Tuesday Chege, a global HR and leadership coach with experience in life, leadership, career and transition coaching.

However, he advises candidates not to carry a drink into an interview to avoid any distraction or misinterpretation.

‘An interviewer could choose to assess the candidate again without the beverage to remove any doubt,’ he says.

For Nthenya Macharia, an etiquette and personal branding consultant at Nthenya Consultancy, the drink may signal how seriously a candidate has approached the interview.

‘The cup does tell me something about how they have approached the moment,’ she says.

Nthenya says candidates should consider whether they have thought about the setting or simply carried their everyday routine into an important meeting.

‘Etiquette is about making choices that fit the occasion and put others at ease,’ she says. ‘The question is less ‘Are drinks allowed?’ and more ‘Does this feel appropriate here, with these people, at this moment?”

Holding a cup throughout the conversation can make a candidate appear preoccupied, while placing it on an interviewer’s desk without invitation can come across as presumptuous and creates the risk of a spill.

‘If a drink is appropriate, keep it discreet and out of the way,’ she says. ‘The conversation should have your full attention.’

Context matters. A candidate meeting a prospective employer in a café is in a different situation from one attending a panel interview in a boardroom. A creative workplace where colleagues routinely meet over coffee may also have different expectations from a traditional corporate office.

But a relaxed workplace does not necessarily mean a relaxed interview.

‘A casual dress code is not automatically an invitation to treat the interview casually,’ Nthenya says. ‘You still need to show that you understand the occasion.’

Chege adds despite workplace cultures becoming more relaxed, candidates should research the organisation and present themselves appropriately rather than assume that every interview follows the same conventions.

Nthenya points to other small behaviours that can shape an interaction, including checking a phone while waiting, wearing sunglasses while indoors, arriving with food to finish, speaking dismissively to reception staff, or opening an interview by complaining about traffic or a former employer.

She pays particular attention to how candidates treat people outside the interview panel.

‘Courtesy should not begin only when the person with the hiring decision walks in,’ she says.

Her simplest test is to ask: ‘Will this help me be present for the conversation, or will it compete for attention?’

If the answer is the latter, she suggests leaving the coffee or water bottle outside.

‘Bring your preparation, your curiosity and your courtesy,’ she says. ‘The coffee or water can wait.’

When Rajen Shah left Kenya after Form Four to further his studies, he had his sights set on a career in pharmacy. But he dropped out to venture into banking with only high school education.

‘I moved to the UK to study pharmacy, and even worked at one for a year, but I didn’t quite like it. I was trying to decide whether to continue pursuing pharmacy when I started applying for jobs in a lot of places, as we all do. That’s how a role came about at State Street [State Street Bank UK]. I started on an apprenticeship, but I now have a degree and an MBA from the London Business School,’ he tells the BDLife.

Today, Rajen is Citi’s global chief operating officer (COO) for technology and business enablement. He is at the core of the technological shift happening in banking.

Before joining Citi, Rajen served as vice president, group audit at Deutsche Bank and as a senior auditor at Lehman Brothers.

Over the years, he says he has seen banking change. In 2026, artificial intelligence (AI) is leading this change as banking services increasingly go digital.

For instance, in the UK, where he is based, Revolut, a digital-only neobank, has surged in popularity, putting pressure on traditional institutions such as Citi and offering a glimpse of what the future of banking might look like.

Rajen believes that while the medium of delivery shifts in this new technological era, the heart and core of banking will remain: customer experience and trust.

‘Ultimately, we are in the business of moving money and safeguarding assets. What our clients want when looking at all these digital journeys is trust from a global brand,’ he says.

While AI opens a plethora of opportunities, there are concerns over its impact on jobs. Standard Chartered Group CEO Bill Winters’ remarks in May 2026 on AI replacing back-office roles, which he termed ‘lower-value human capital’, have resulted in controversy that banks like Citi would leverage the technology to cut jobs.

For Rajen, however, anxiety around AI closely mimics similar concerns around the entry of the desktop computer, the ATM and even the smartphone into banking.

‘Every time we automate processes, we become better. We basically become better and find the value proposition that our clients want,’ says Rajen, who this year marks his 13th anniversary with the multinational investment bank and financial services firm.

Career roles

Over the course of his career at the institution, he has held several senior roles, including chief auditor for data quality and global chief administrative officer for enterprise operations and technology.

‘I didn’t have a mobile phone when I grew up in Kenya, but as I got the mobile phone, my expectations changed, and in some cases, I would say they dramatically increased. I think this is how we are all evolving.’

Workers, especially software developers, are being pushed world over to use AI in their everyday workdays, amplifying business costs as each firm angles to squeeze out the most benefits from the technology.

The workers and their bosses have described token maxing, where each staff member has been assessed on their AI use in output, almost to a fault.

Rajen, however, argues that not everything needs an AI fix, drawing the example of why a Ferrari is not always the right vehicle for every driving situation.

Life without a jacket

Having grown up in Mombasa where he owned no jacket, he describes borrowing one during his travels to the capital, Nairobi, as an analogy for the cautionary tale of not forcing technology where no use case exists.

‘I never owned a jacket when I lived in Mombasa, and the only time I needed one was when I travelled by the then 12-hour train to Nairobi once a year for about three days. I would borrow a jacket for the three days. I did not need to invest in that jacket.’

Rajen credits much of his career trajectory to being willing to take on new challenges. Over the years, people around him have nudged him to take risks and venture into unfamiliar territory.

Risk taking vs being bold

But he is quick to draw a distinction between being bold and simply taking chances. The risks, he says, should be calculated, grounded in experience, skills and personal interests.

‘It’s about taking and making informed choices, not necessarily just taking a chance at the wild. You need to have the ability to give something of value to the role. You also need resilience and a strong thirst to learn and improve yourself,’ says Rajen, who, away from work, runs a nonprofit that supports disadvantaged children and communities around the world through education and infrastructure projects.

On September 17, 2026, the world marked World Patient Safety Day under the theme ‘Safe care for non-communicable diseases,’ accompanied by the call ‘Safe care for life!’

It is an important theme because non-communicable diseases such as cardiovascular conditions, cancer, diabetes and chronic respiratory diseases do not follow the logic of a single hospital visit. They require continuous care, repeated decisions, multiple providers and, often, years of interaction with the health system.

WHO estimates that around one in every 10 patients is harmed during healthcare, with approximately half of that harm considered preventable. The WHO Global Patient Safety Report 2024 also estimates that at least one in 20 patients experiences preventable medication-related harm, with 53 percent of such harm occurring at the ordering or prescribing stage.

Yet much of the conversation around patient safety remains focused on what happens within a clinical encounter. We think about the wrong medicine, a delayed diagnosis, an avoidable infection or an error in treatment. Those risks are real.

But in the digital age, there is another safety problem that deserves greater attention: what happens between one healthcare decision and the next. A patient may receive safe care today yet face avoidable risk tomorrow when relevant medical history does not follow them.

A laboratory result may exist but not reach the clinician who needs it. A prescription may be changed in one facility while another provider continues working with outdated information. A referral may be issued but never completed.

A patient may move between public and private providers, hospitals, laboratories and pharmacies, while the responsibility for connecting those encounters falls largely on the patient.

This is where I believe we need to rethink patient safety. For chronic diseases, safety is increasingly a question of continuity. The scale of the challenge is significant.

WHO estimates that non-communicable diseases (NCDs) account for 74 percent of deaths globally, while cardiovascular diseases, cancers, chronic respiratory diseases and diabetes together account for the overwhelming majority of premature NCD deaths.

I would argue that one of the most consequential patient-safety gaps in modern healthcare lies between one decision and the next.

Sometimes it is a series of small disconnects that nobody notices until they become consequential. Chronic disease management exposes patients to precisely this risk because the patient’s journey is longer than the institutional systems that support it. Healthcare organisations may each perform their individual roles effectively, yet the overall journey can remain fragmented.

This matters particularly in Africa, where healthcare journeys are rarely linear.

The burden of NCDs is also becoming increasingly significant across the continent. WHO estimates that 1.6 million people between the ages of 30 and 70 die prematurely each year from one of the major NCDs in the African Region, accounting for 63 percent of all NCD-related deaths.

A patient may begin treatment at a primary care facility, undertake tests elsewhere, seek specialised services at a referral hospital and purchase medicines from a private pharmacy. Insurance may finance some parts of that journey while the patient pays directly for others.

The patient experiences this as one healthcare journey. The health system, however, often manages it as a collection of separate transactions.

That should make us pause.

Why are we still designing healthcare systems around institutions when illness is experienced by individuals?

Kenya’s growing digital health infrastructure offers an opportunity to address this challenge. The burden is substantial: according to WHO’s 2025 Kenya Annual Report, non-communicable diseases account for 41 percent of all annual deaths and 50 percent of hospital admissions nationally. At the same time, Kenya is building the infrastructure needed to support more connected care.

The Ministry of Health reported in 2025 that the Health Information Exchange was being developed to facilitate the sharing of patient information across facilities, while the Digital Health Act provides for shareable and portable personal health records and health-data portability.

The direction towards shared and interoperable health information has the potential to improve continuity of care by allowing relevant clinical information to follow the patient rather than remain trapped within individual institutions. But we should be careful not to confuse digitisation with safety.

A hospital can eliminate paper and remain fragmented. A patient can have multiple digital records that don’t communicate. Technology does not automatically solve fragmentation; poorly connected technology can digitise it.

The scale of digitisation is already considerable. In January 2025, Kenya’s Ministry of Health reported that its digital health programme included a Health Information Exchange, e-claims processing, the SHA Registration Portal and deployment of digital hospital management systems.

The Ministry also reported that 91 percent of health facilities in Mombasa County had been digitised through the TaifaCare system at the time.

Interoperability, therefore, should no longer be treated merely as a technical ambition. It should increasingly be understood as patient-safety infrastructure.

This is one of the most important opportunities presented by digital health platforms. Properly designed connected systems can help healthcare professionals access relevant information, support better continuity, reduce unnecessary duplication and create a clearer view of the patient’s journey. But technology must be designed around the patient rather than around the transactions of the institutions using it.

The real value of digital transformation is therefore not simply its ability to collect information. It is its ability to improve the healthcare system’s capacity to notice.

Artificial intelligence and advanced analytics will become increasingly important in this regard. They can identify patterns, anomalies and emerging risks across volumes of information that would be difficult for individuals to analyse consistently. The real objective should be to help the right person notice the right thing early enough to make a difference.

Technology should reduce cognitive burden, not add to it. It should help prioritise attention, not create digital noise disguised as intelligence.

Patient safety also requires us to reconsider what we mean by patient engagement. Giving someone access to an application is not automatically empowerment. There is an important difference between empowering patients and transferring institutional responsibilities to them.

Digital platforms should enable patients to understand their treatment, access relevant information and participate meaningfully in decisions about their health. But the burden of making a fragmented system work should not be transferred to the patient under the language of empowerment.

WHO’s 2026 campaign explicitly emphasises that people living with non-communicable diseases should be partners in safe care and that risks must be addressed across the continuum of care, including homes and communities, not simply within hospitals. Africa already offers important lessons. In Kenya, patient navigation models in cancer care demonstrate that safety is also about helping patients successfully move through a complex healthcare journey.

A study of the Kenyatta National Hospital patient navigation programme involving 1,126 adults with cancer found that greater exposure to navigation was associated with improved understanding of diagnosis, treatment duration and required clinical services, while patients in the 2019 survey had lower odds of delaying the start or continuation of treatment.

Technology, therefore, should not merely automate existing processes. It should make the patient’s journey more coherent.

That requires a more demanding standard for innovation.

We should not ask only whether technology is faster. We should ask whether it reduces the risk of harm. We should not ask only whether a platform processes more transactions.

We should ask whether it improves continuity. Systems will fail. Information will sometimes be incomplete. Networks will go down. Human beings will make mistakes. Algorithms will not always be correct. The question is whether the system makes those failures visible, recoverable and less harmful.

The conversation on safe care for non-communicable diseases should therefore move beyond the individual clinical encounter. The challenge before us is to make the entire healthcare journey safer.

The safest healthcare system of the future may not be the one with the most sophisticated technology. It may be the one in which fewer critical things are lost between one decision and the next. Where medical history follows the patient. Where missed care is noticed before it becomes a crisis. Where technology helps healthcare professionals see connections they would otherwise miss. Where patients are active partners in their care without being expected to hold the entire system together.

That is the promise of patient safety in the digital age.

And perhaps the most important principle is also the simplest: the patient experiences one journey, even when healthcare is delivered by many institutions. Our responsibility is to ensure that the gaps between those institutions do not become gaps in safety.

Kenya’s public debt is no longer a future risk; it is a present fiscal constraint. By June 2026, total public and publicly guaranteed debt had reached Sh13.01 trillion, up from Sh11.81 trillion a year earlier.

At 69.5 percent of GDP in February, debt was already 14.5 percentage points above Parliament’s 55 percent anchor, with Treasury projecting a return to that threshold only by October 2028. More troubling is the cost of carrying this burden as debt service exceeded Sh1.35 trillion in nine months.

The temptation to finance continuing fiscal deficits through additional borrowing must, therefore, be resisted. Kenya cannot tax, refinance and borrow its way out of a debt problem created by borrowing. The central question is no longer simply how much government can borrow, but how intelligently it can manage liabilities already on its balance sheet.

Public-finance theory offers a useful lens. James Buchanan explains the political attraction of borrowing: current policymakers receive the benefits while part of the cost is transferred to future taxpayers. Richard Musgrave reminds us that excessive debt service can distort resource allocation and weaken fiscal stabilisation by crowding out productive expenditure.

Mancur Olson, meanwhile, shows how organised interests can secure public spending while its costs are dispersed across society. The financial dimension is equally important. Hyman Minsky warns that periods of apparent financial stability can conceal growing fragility when institutions continually refinance their obligations.

Olivier Blanchard’s work shows that debt sustainability depends critically on the relationship between interest rates and economic growth. Reinhart and Rogoff similarly highlight the risks associated with persistently elevated public debt, while Joseph Stiglitz emphasises the importance of what borrowed resources actually finance.

Borrowing that expands productive capacity is fundamentally different from one that sustains recurrent consumption.

This is why Kenya needs to move from passive debt financing to active liability management. Treasury’s shift from short-term Treasury bills towards longer-term bonds can reduce rollover risk, but it is only one element of a broader strategy.

Kenya should establish a national loan swap framework, approved by Parliament and governed by transparent rules on valuation, disclosure, risk limits and the use of savings.

The framework should incorporate currency, interest-rate and development swaps. With roughly 44 percent of public debt external, currency exposure remains a significant vulnerability. A well-structured currency swap can hedge foreign-exchange risk and make the shilling cost of external debt more predictable.

Interest-rate swaps can similarly exchange floating-rate exposure for fixed-rate payments, protecting the budget against adverse movements in global interest rates. Such instruments may not reduce the principal owed, but they can materially improve predictability of debt service.

The more transformative opportunity is debt-for-development, particularly conservation swaps. International experience demonstrates that these are no longer experimental instruments. Barbados has used debt conversions to support marine conservation and climate resilience.

Ecuador’s $1.6 billion debt-for-nature transaction and Belize’s $364 million conversion combined debt restructuring with long-term conservation financing.

Kenya has assets that could support an equally strategic approach. Its forests, water towers, wetlands, rangelands and marine ecosystems are not merely environmental resources; they constitute economic infrastructure.

They regulate water, sustain agriculture, support tourism and strengthen climate resilience. A national conservation debt swap could, therefore, restructure part of Kenya’s expensive debt in return for legally protected, independently verified conservation commitments.

Savings could support restoration of forest ecosystems, degraded catchments and the Indian Ocean blue economy. Carbon markets could also complement these arrangements where carbon rights are clearly defined and projects independently verified and local communities receive an equitable share of benefits.

Such transactions must, however, be treated as sophisticated financial operations rather than free money.

Every swap should demonstrate a positive net-present-value outcome, disclose contingent liabilities and counterparty risks, and specify how savings will be used. Fiscal gains should be ring-fenced for productive investment rather than absorbed into recurrent expenditure, with independent institutions monitoring both financial and conservation outcomes.

Kenya will not restore fiscal space simply by borrowing more. Nor will taxation, austerity or refinancing alone resolve the problem. The country needs a sovereign balance-sheet strategy that reduces financial vulnerability while protecting and expanding the productive assets on which future growth depends.

Loan swaps offer precisely that possibility. Properly designed, they can turn debt management from a defensive exercise into an instrument of fiscal restructuring, economic resilience and national asset preservation. Kenya does not need more debt; it needs smarter management of the debt it already has.

Anyone who has spent time in rallying knows that success is never about speed alone. A powerful engine counts for little if the suspension, tyres and navigation are not working together. Winning comes from creating the right conditions for people and machines to perform at their best. The same principle applies in business.

Today, every business leader is asking the same question: how can we use artificial intelligence(AI)to become more efficient, innovative and competitive? Organisations across East Africa are investing in AI, cloud technologies and digital solutions to transform how they operate.

As businesses accelerate their technology investments, there is another question that deserves equal attention: are our workplaces ready to help people unlock the full value of these technologies?

Many offices across East Africa still operate much as they did a decade ago. They were designed for a different era, with fixed layouts, traditional ways of managing building and spaces built around employees being in the office every day.

Yet the way people work has changed significantly. Teams now collaborate across locations, employees move between home, offices and client sites and businesses expect technology to help them work smarter.

The workplace can no longer be viewed simply as a physical location where people come to work. It has become a strategic business asset that influences productivity, employee experience, operating costs and an organisation’s ability to attract and retain talent.

In today’s competitive environment, employees are looking beyond salary when choosing where to build their careers. They want workplaces that support collaboration, wellbeing and productivity. They want environments that remove unnecessary frustrations and allow them to focus on doing their best work.

This is where intelligent workplaces are becoming increasingly important.

Technology is helping organisations create environments that respond to the needs of employees while improving business performance.

Intelligent buildings can automatically adjust lighting, temperature and ventilation to create more comfortable working conditions while reducing unnecessary energy consumption. Meeting spaces can be managed more effectively, making it easier for teams to collaborate.

Data from workplaces can help leaders understand how spaces are being used and make better decisions about future investments.

These may seem like operational improvements, but their impact goes much further. When employees have better working environments, they can collaborate more effectively, stay focused and deliver better outcomes. At the same time, organisations can make better use of their office space, reduce costs and improve sustainability.

This is particularly important across East Africa, where businesses continue to face rising energy costs and increasing pressure to operate more sustainably. Traditional workplaces often consume resources regardless of how spaces are being used. Intelligent workplaces can respond to actual demand, reducing waste and helping organisations operate more efficiently.

The workplace can also play a role in improving business resilience. Instead of waiting for critical equipment such as cooling systems or other infrastructure to fail, organisations can use technology to identify potential issues early and address them before they become major disruptions. For industries such as banking, healthcare, manufacturing and aviation, where downtime can have significant consequences, this capability is increasingly valuable.

Another opportunity is the ability to create digital models of buildings before making major investments. This allows organisations to test different scenarios, from redesigning office layouts to improving energy efficiency, and make decisions based on evidence rather than assumptions.

The most successful workplaces are not necessarily those with the latest technology. They are the ones where technology is almost invisible. Employees are not thinking about sensors, automation or building management systems; they are simply able to collaborate more easily, work more comfortably and focus on delivering value to clients.

That is the true measure of an intelligent workplace. Technology should serve people, not the other way around.

As organisations continue to invest in artificial intelligence, they should not overlook the physical environments where employees spend much of their working lives. Technology alone does not create competitive advantage. Every organisation can invest in AI tools, cloud platforms and software.

The organisations that stand out will be those that create workplaces where people can use these technologies effectively to innovate, collaborate and deliver better results.

East Africa has repeatedly demonstrated its ability to embrace new approaches, from mobile money to digital banking and cloud adoption. The next opportunity is not simply about adopting more technology. It is about creating the right conditions for people and technology to work together.

The workplace is no longer just a business expense. It is an enabler of productivity, innovation and resilience. Organisations that recognise this will be better positioned to attract talent, control costs and compete in an increasingly digital economy.

In the race to build future-ready businesses, the winners will not be those that simply adopt the latest technologies. They will be those that create environments where people and technology can work together to deliver their full potential.

On October 1, China will celebrate its 77th National Day, commemorating the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949.

Ordinarily, that anniversary would belong to one nation, singing the National Anthem, a National Day flag-raising ceremony, vibrant flower displays and reflections on decades of transformation. But this year, China’s celebration arrives carrying something larger than national symbolism.

Just days ago, leaders of the expanded Brics family concluded the 18th Brics Summit in New Delhi. India officially handed the Brics chairmanship to China for 2027, making Beijing the host of the 19th Brics Summit and the custodian of what Chinese leaders have called the beginning of the bloc’s ‘third golden decade’ of cooperation.

These are not separate stories. They are chapters of the same conversation. A conversation about development, partnership and the growing confidence of the Global South in shaping its own future.

From an African perspective, the conversation began long before Brics, before the Belt and Road Initiative, before Chinese built railways crossed East Africa or Chinese solar panels powered villages across the continent. It began with solidarity between newly independent nations seeking a greater voice in an international system.

China’s National Day, viewed through African eyes, feels like attending and celebrating the anniversary of a friendship that has matured over generations.

Going back to history, in October 1971, when the United Nations General Assembly voted on Resolution 2758 to restore the People’s Republic of China’s seat at the UN, African countries played a decisive role within the coalition that supported Beijing’s return.

Twenty-six African states voted in favour of the resolution, reflecting the continent’s growing diplomatic influence during the post-colonial era.

Beijing has never forgotten that moment. During the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation Johannesburg Summit in December 2015, President Xi Jinping remarked that ‘although China and Africa are separated by great distances, their friendship is deep-rooted and has grown stronger over time, forged through decades of standing together, supporting one another and pursuing mutual benefit and shared progress’.

Chinese leaders have long described Africa as ‘a sincere friend and reliable partner’.

He further added that ‘China and African countries are true friends in times of hardship, and such friendships must never be forgotten’, maintaining that regardless of how the international landscape evolves, the principles of equality, mutual trust and mutual support will remain the foundation of China-Africa relations.

Chinese leaders have long described Africa as ‘a sincere friend and reliable partner’.

That sentiment continues to shape China’s diplomacy. Since 1991, China’s foreign minister’s first overseas visit of the year is always to an African country. 2026 marked the 36th consecutive year for that respected tradition, with Foreign Minister Wang Yi visiting Ethiopia, Somalia, Tanzania and Lesotho from 7-12 January 2026.

The relationship that began with diplomatic solidarity now evolving into one of the world’s largest South-South partnerships.

There is a quiet elegance in this history. In 1971, Africa helped amplify China’s voice within the world’s premier multilateral institution. More than half a century later, China is advocating for a louder voice for Africa and the broader Global South in global governance, increasingly within Brics.

History remembers who stood beside it.

To appreciate China’s development story, and to understand why the China-Africa partnership carries weight today, it helps to remember where China began. In 1949, when the People’s Republic of China was founded, the country’s economy was worth only about $40-50 billion, with a GDP per capita of just $23.

It was ranked among the lowest countries in the world, with only a handful of nations recording lower incomes per person. Today, it is the world’s second-largest economy.

But numbers become meaningful when they travel beyond borders.

They become stories of solidarity translated into actions. African nations stood with China at a defining moment in its return to the United Nations, extending diplomatic support when China was still finding its place in the international system. Years later, Beijing’s engagement with Africa is an extension of that shared history translated into development cooperation. A partnership built on the idea that progress is strongest when it is shared.

Take for instance the Global Development Initiative (GDI), proposed by President Xi Jinping in 2021 during the UN General Assembly. 5 years later, more than 2,000 development projects and initiatives have been implemented or are underway across participating countries, covering poverty reduction, food security, healthcare, education, digital development and green growth.

Across Africa, the cooperation has become tangible.

Chinese companies have participated in the construction of railways connecting ports to inland markets, highways, deep-water ports expanding trade capacity, hydro-power stations, airports and industrial parks. China has become one of the most significant builders of physical infrastructure across Africa in the twenty-first century.

For many African countries, China’s rise did not remain a distant economic observation. It arrived through those ports, industrial parks, classrooms, hospitals, highways and marketplaces.

Beyond infrastructure, China has remained Africa’s largest bilateral trading partner for more than 15 consecutive years. Trade between China and Africa has grown from approximately $10 billion in 2000 to well over $290 billion annually, making it one of the defining economic relationships across the Global South.

Another milestone came through China’s expansion of the zero-tariff policy, granting duty free market access to China for 53 African countries that maintain diplomatic relations with the country.

Coffee from Ethiopia. Avocados and macadamia nuts from Kenya. Sesame from Sudan. Cashews from Tanzania. Cocoa products from West Africa. For African exporters, this access has been quite transformative.

The next chapter of the partnership is increasingly multilateral. At the Brics Summit in New Delhi, President Xi Jinping called for a stronger commitment to multilateralism, people-centred development, a more just international order, and deeper cooperation in areas such as artificial intelligence, industrial supply chains, special economic zones and services trade.

As China prepares to chair Brics in 2027, the significance of that vision will lie in its implementation.

For Africa, these priorities align closely with long-standing aspirations for greater representation in global institutions, expanded development finance, technology cooperation, industrialisation and institutional reforms, and a stronger voice in shaping the future of the Global South.

Expanded Brics now brings together 11 member states, representing nearly half of the world’s population and about 40 percent of global GDP. Its flagship institution, the New Development Bank (NDB), has approved 139 projects worth $42.9 billion in infrastructure and sustainable development, while increasingly providing financing in local currencies, including the yuan, rand and rupee, to help reduce exchange-rate risks for developing economies.

Africa is already seeing Brics cooperation translate into development financing. South Africa, a founding Brics member, has secured about $6.6 billion from NDB for 15 projects spanning renewable energy, transport, water infrastructure and urban development, while Egypt received a $500 million NDB loan for transport and energy projects.

As China celebrates their national day, many Africans can reasonably see China’s anniversary as a moment to reflect on a partnership that has shaped parts of Africa’s own development journey.

For the student studying on a scholarship in Shanghai, the engineer working on an industrial park in Ethiopia, the entrepreneur exporting agricultural products to China under expanded market access or the commuter riding the SGR in Kenya. China’s story really intersects with Africa’s. And maybe that is what South-South cooperation was always meant to become. Countries sharing experiences and mutual learning.