Category: Business Daily

Analysts have raised concerns over the valuation method used to determine the Sh34 per share price at which the government is selling a 15 percent stake in Safaricom to South Africa’s Vodacom Group Limited, warning the deal could be undervalued.

They further warn that the transaction will give the multinational a controlling 55 percent stake in what could limit the government’s influence in the telco’s strategic direction.

The Institute of Certified Public Accountants of Kenya (ICPAK) said that basing the transaction price primarily on a 33.9 percent premium to the trading price of Safaricom’s shares in the 180 days before Vodacom filed its buyout disclosure relies on historical market data and liquidity conditions rather than Safaricom’s intrinsic value.

“There is a need to link the proposed premium to Safaricom’s expected future earnings, sector outlook, and relevant macroeconomic trends, rather than relying solely on historical trading metrics,” Professor Elizabeth Kalunda, the ICPAK chairperson said.

“This will enhance clarity of the valuation methodology and strengthen public trust in Kenya’s Capital Markets.”

Prof Kalunda said the market premium approach may not fully capture the company’s long-term growth prospects, future cash flow potential, or strategic importance to the State.

The submissions were made before the National Assembly’s joint committee on Finance and National Planning and Public Debt and Privatisation.

The deal, in which the Treasury is selling a 15 percent stake in Safaricom to Vodacom for Sh204.3 billion, needs to be approved by Parliament among other entities. If it is concluded, the government will retain a 20 percent interest in the telco.

The ICPAK’s concerns came even as regulators led by the Communications Authority of Kenya (CA), the Capital Markets Authority (CMA), and the Competition Authority of (CAK) welcomed the deal, telling lawmakers that the price was competitive and the transaction is unlikely to negatively affect the market.

“The preliminary position of the Authority (CA) is that the request for the proposed change in shareholding can be accomodated considering that: there is no local shareholding threshold requirement under policy, the transaction retains local equity participation through the government of Kenya, and the transaction has been approved by the Cabinet,” David Mugonyi, the CA’s Director General said.

ICPAK and the Technology Service Providers Association of Kenya, an industry association, meanwhile say the buyout price of Sh34 per share was set without a publicly disclosed methodology.

“Independent benchmarking or third-party validation is minimal. The proposed price of Sh34 per share has not been accompanied by a clear explanation of the valuation methodology, raising concerns over price discovery and accountability,” Prof Kalunda said.

“The proposed price of Sh34 per share has not been accompanied by a clear explanation of its methodology, raising concerns over price discovery and accountability.”

A business property in Nairobi, which is linked to Kiambu Governor Kimani Wamatangi, was demolished barely 24 hours after a court barred Kenya Railways from evicting its occupants or demolishing it, raising concerns over alleged defiance of judicial authority.

The demolition of the property, which is located near Nyayo National Stadium, proceeded despite court orders preserving the property pending resolution of the dispute. This escalation intensifies a legal battle over land rights, tenancy protections, and adherence to the rule of law.

The dispute involves Superclean Shine Enterprises Limited against Kenya Railways Corporation and the Attorney-General.

The company operates on Plot No. 209/1618 along Douglas Wakiihuri Road, a prime location near Nairobi’s sports and transport hub.

Court documents reveal that the firm sought legal intervention in December 2025 after railway officials allegedly issued verbal eviction threats without written notice.

The company claims these threats culminated in demolition plans scheduled for December 22, prompting urgent court action. It says that more than 600 police officers had been deployed at the scene.

On January 13, 2026, a magistrate’s court in Milimani issued orders restraining Kenya Railways, its agents, or any affiliated parties from evicting, dispossessing, or interfering with the property. The court also prohibited the intended demolition until the dispute was heard.

Despite the injunction, bulldozers demolished the structures the following day, sparking accusations of contempt of court.

Superclean Shine asserts it has occupied the land for over 20 years under a valid lease issued by Kenya Railways. The firm provided bank deposit slips from September, November, and December 2025 as evidence of consistent rent payments, supporting its claim of lawful tenancy.

‘The respondents’ actions are deliberately designed to bypass due process and undermine this case, despite clear court orders requiring them to file responses within ten days-a deadline that has since lapsed,’ said Faith Wambui, the company’s director.

The company argues that under the Land Act, eviction requires due process, including written notice and court-sanctioned procedures-none of which were allegedly followed before the demolition.

In affidavits, the firm’s management detailed losses including business disruption, property destruction, and harm to hundreds of employees’ livelihoods.

‘Kenya Railways’ actions flagrantly violate our constitutional rights to property and fair administrative action under Articles 40 and 47, as well as Land Act provisions,’ Ms Wambui stated.

While the property’s reported ties to Governor Wamatangi have drawn public attention, court filings focus solely on tenancy rights, with no allegations of wrongdoing against him.

Kenya Railways has not publicly explained why it proceeded with the demolition despite the court order. The Attorney General, named in the suit as the state’s legal representative, has yet to respond.

Superclean Shine is now seeking contempt charges against those responsible and further protective orders. The firm wants the court to uphold the lease’s validity and mandate lawful eviction procedures.

The demolition has transformed the case from a tenancy dispute into a potential constitutional clash.

This case mirrors other conflicts between Kenya Railways and long-term tenants in Nairobi and beyond, often tied to redevelopment plans and railway corridor reclamation.

In the first part of this reflection, I explored why African founders often struggle not because they lack intelligence, effort, or ambition, but because they are building inside environments shaped by instability, friction, and unspoken rules.

I argued that strategy alone is insufficient in such contexts, and that founders need a way of organising how they navigate pressure, people, meaning, and decision-making.

This second part turns inward.

Because long before companies collapse or succeed, founders experience alignment or fracture within themselves. It is this internal alignment, more than any external factor, that determines whether a founder sustains momentum or quietly burns out.

Over time, I stopped seeing the founder journey as a sequence of stages. In African contexts, founders rarely graduate from one phase to another. Instead, they cycle through recurring problem zones, arcs of tension that resurface as businesses evolve. These arcs are not theoretical. They are lived.

The first arc is external chaos. This is where many founders begin and often return. It shows up as unpaid bills, regulatory unpredictability, informal gatekeeping, political interference, and contracts that reward compliance slowly and punish it quickly.

Founders stuck here often believe they have a strategy problem, when in reality they are navigating institutional friction. This arc exerts pressure primarily on the strategic and social states. It forces difficult trade-offs, tests trust, and tempts short-term survival decisions that undermine long-term value.

Closely following is the arc of internal turmoil. This is quieter, but more corrosive.

It emerges when founders begin to wear identities that help them survive, the tireless hustler, the confident leader, the unbreakable provider, while privately feeling fragmented.

Ambition borrowed from peers, family, or society replaces personal conviction. Success becomes validation rather than contribution.

Here, the mindset and spiritual states are under strain. Founders appear functional, even successful, but feel increasingly disconnected from why they started.

Then comes the arc most founders recognise only in hindsight, mental and emotional strain. This is where anxiety, burnout, and decision fatigue live.

Founders here are still performing, sometimes even excelling, but the cost is rising invisibly. Relationships thin out. Creativity dulls. Decisions become reactive.

Emotional suppression is mistaken for discipline. This arc primarily attacks the emotional state, but its effects bleed into leadership tone, culture, and timing.

Some founders, particularly those who survive early chaos, eventually encounter the arc of legacy tension. This does not arrive during crisis, but during transition. Growth introduces complexity. Success brings governance challenges.

Control becomes harder to maintain. Trust fractures surface. Founders fear winning almost as much as failing because success demands a different version of themselves. This arc presses hard on the strategic and social states, forcing a shift from survival instincts to stewardship, a shift many founders are not prepared for.

Finally, there is the arc of purpose and continuity. This is the least discussed and most misunderstood. Founders here ask quieter questions. Why continue? What does this mean beyond me? What am I building toward, not just building from? Without space to integrate meaning, achievement amplifies emptiness rather than fulfilment.

This arc confronts the spiritual and mindset states directly. Many founders feel lost here precisely because nothing is wrong on paper.

What matters is this. Founders often occupy multiple arcs at once.

A business can be scaling while the founder is emotionally depleted. A founder can be strategically correct while spiritually misaligned. A company can survive external chaos while quietly eroding internally.

This is where the five internal states, social, emotional, strategic, spiritual, and mindset, become not abstract concepts, but practical diagnostic tools.

The social state governs how founders relate to people, power, and proximity. Misreading this state leads to betrayal, isolation, or false security. The emotional state governs how pressure is processed.

When neglected, unprocessed emotion hijacks decision-making or leaks into leadership. The strategic state governs timing and trade-offs.

Without alignment, founders confuse motion with progress. The spiritual state governs meaning and integrity. When ignored, founders lose their internal compass even while succeeding externally.

The mindset state governs interpretation. Scarcity narratives and fixed identities quietly shape every choice upstream.

Most founder crises occur not because one of these states is broken, but because they are misaligned.

Strategy says exit. Emotion says endure. Social pressure says stay visible. Mindset says quitting equals failure. Spiritual discomfort whispers, but is overridden.

So nothing moves.

After years of navigating this tension, I began asking a different question when faced with dilemmas. Which internal state is in rebellion right now? The answer almost always revealed the real blockage, and with it, the path forward.

What I am describing is not a framework to adopt or a system to install. It is a conceptual model, a way of organising reality that helped me move when effort alone stopped working. It has been tested, refined, and corrected across more than two decades of building in African contexts.

African founders deserve models that reflect their realities. Global case studies offer context, but they rarely address the social cost of failure, the emotional tax of endurance, or the cultural weight founders carry. Worse still, our institutions rarely document failure honestly, even though it holds the richest lessons.

As we step into a new year, my invitation is simple. Do not only set goals for growth, scale, or capital. Set intentions for alignment.

When you face a decision, pause and ask, where does this tension sit, socially, emotionally, strategically, spiritually, or in mindset?

The way forward is often hiding there.

Leadership does not become less lonely by climbing higher. It becomes less lonely when you understand yourself more clearly. Sometimes survival turns back into progress not through pushing harder, but through listening more honestly to the part of you that has been asking to be heard.

The value of cash handled by mobile money agents, including those linked to banks and telecommunications firms, fell by a record Sh430.3 billion in the first 11 months of last year, signalling a shift in payment channels, heightened tax scrutiny and a tighter liquidity environment.

Data from the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) shows that cash handled by the agents fell to Sh7.514 trillion between January and November last year, down from Sh7.944 trillion in the same period in 2024.

‘This might be as a result of a range of factors,’ said an official who heads a digital payments department in a local bank, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

‘We are seeing tighter liquidity and a relatively high interest rate environment, which is pushing individuals to hold funds in interest-bearing accounts rather than cash.’

The agents sampled by the CBK, the financial sector regulator, include those of telecommunication companies such as Safaricom’s M-Pesa and banks through their agency banking shops.

The historic drop also comes at a time when Kenya’s payment infrastructure has undergone significant changes, with small-value transactions -such as settling matatu fares or grocery bills- now increasingly done through mobile phones rather than cash, reducing the need for trips to agents to withdraw money.

Banks have also made a more aggressive entry into the digital payments space that was once the preserve of M-Pesa by charging lower fees than telecoms operators in some cases.

Since the inception of M-Pesa in 2007 and the subsequent rollout of agency banking, cash handled by agents has fallen only once, in 2023, by a small margin of Sh35 billion.

Despite the decline in cash handled by agents, data from the national statistician points to improved economic performance last year compared to 2024, suggesting that fewer trips to agents by Kenyans do not necessarily signal economic distress.

For example, in the first nine months last year, the size of the economy, or gross domestic product (GDP), expanded at a faster rate compared to the same period in 2024, data published by the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) shows.

Other leading economic indicators -such as money supply, stock market performance, exchange rate stability, and cement consumption- also point to increased transactions, as Kenyans engage in a flurry of economic activity.

The Covid-19 outbreak year of 2020 and the following year recorded the sharpest increases in cash handled by agents, as the CBK implemented emergency measures to cushion Kenyans against the adverse effects of the pandemic.

The biggest jump came in 2021, when transactions rose by Sh1.639 trillion as customers took advantage of zero fees on mobile wallet-to-bank account transfers, depositing money into their mobile wallets at no cost. Free mobile-to-bank transfers ended in December 2022.

At the time, M-Pesa agents benefited from increased bank deposits via the mobile money platform due to the removal of transfer fees.

The telecoms operators paid the agents commissions of Sh28.21 billion in the year to March 2021, up from Sh23.82 billion the year before as M-Pesa-to-bank transactions surpassed bank-to-M-Pesa transfers for the first time.

Officials of M-Pesa Africa attributed the significant jump in deposit volumes to customers using M-Pesa to deposit money they would have otherwise deposited directly with banks.

However, this has been changing, with some traders avoiding agents for fear of being tracked, said the banker.

The increased use of digital platforms for taxes, levies, fees, and government services might also have discouraged cash payments and further reduced cash in circulation.

‘Stronger scrutiny of large cash transactions by banks and regulators discourages high-value cash usage, pushing businesses toward traceable electronic channels,’ said the banker.

In the 11 months to November 2025, the number of mobile accounts grew by 7.21 million to 89.1 million accounts, while active agents rose by 26 percent to 4.7 million agents.

The divergence points to weakening cash-in and cash-out activity, a key revenue source for agents.

Agents earn a commission for deposits and withdrawals they process.

The Kenya Revenue Authority intensified the use of digital transaction data to improve compliance, particularly among SMEs.

Digital payments, including mobile money, were targeted as a critical component of broadening the tax base.

Analysts say the increased linkage between mobile payments and tax enforcement encouraged some cash-dependent businesses to limit withdrawals or reintroduce cash transactions, especially in sectors such as retail trade, hospitality, and transport.

As cash handling declines, growth opportunities are shifting toward merchant acquiring, embedded finance, digital lending, and SME payments platforms, where margins are higher, and cash is less central.

Regulators say the challenge is to encourage digital payments for efficiency and transparency while ensuring enforcement does not unintentionally push small traders back into cash-heavy operations.

The number of Kenyans who sought government services physically and were served through Huduma Centres rose to 14.12 million in the year ended June 2025, reflecting continued reliance on in-person access despite Kenya’s push towards digital government.

Data from the National Treasury shows that 14.12 million people were served physically at Huduma Centres in the year ended June 2025, up from 13.5 million the previous year.

The increase highlights a paradox in Kenya’s public service reforms: while online platforms such as eCitizen have expanded, millions of citizens still rely on face-to-face interactions to access essential government services.

“Customers served through Huduma Kenya Service delivery platforms [or] number of customers (in millions) served annually through Huduma Kenya Service (HKS) delivery platforms 14,121,167 in 2024/2025. over 13.5 million customers were served every year,” said Treasury.

“Seven (7) Huduma Centres were constructed by the National Government Constituencies Development Fund (NGCDF) and operationalised by HKS,” added Treasury.

Kenyans continue to visit Huduma Centres because they bring together some of the country’s most essential and frequently needed government services under one roof, reducing the time, cost and confusion of navigating multiple offices.

The centres offer services such as national ID registration and replacement, passport applications, birth and death certificate processing, driving licence services, business registration, NHIF/SHA and NSSF enrolment, tax (KRA) assistance, police clearance certificates and access to social protection programmes.

Many of these services require biometric capture, document verification or physical signatures, making in-person visits unavoidable despite the availability of online portals.

The numbers have been rising since 2022/23, increasing from 13.52 million to 13.5 million in 2024 and reaching 14.12 million in 2025.

The rise to 14.12 million surpassed the government’s target of serving 14 million customers across various Huduma Centres in the year ended June 2025.

The government has announced plans to expand the number of Huduma Centres across the country as part of efforts to improve access to public services.

Some of the centres are located in Naivasha, Malindi, Meru and Kibwezi, among other towns.

The increase is attributed to changes in national identification systems, rising demand for passports and the transition to new health and social security schemes, which have driven repeat visits, particularly among first-time applicants and those updating records.

In 2024, the State Department for Immigration said it issued 621,805 passports and successfully streamlined the passport issuance process. ‘As of 9th June 2025, despite having notified applicants by text messages, we have 57,334 uncollected passports,’ said Principal Secretary, State Department of Immigration and Citizen Services, Dr Belio Kipsang, mid last year.

According to a study by the University of Nairobi on e-government services at Huduma Centres, the surge in in-person visits also exposes persistent gaps in Kenya’s digital transformation.

Limited internet access, low digital literacy and frequent system outages continue to lock out many citizens from online services. For others, the complexity of digital platforms or lack of trust in completing sensitive transactions online makes Huduma Centres a safer and more reliable option.

A recent joint report by the Communications Authority of Kenya and the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics shows that only about 35 percent of Kenyans use the internet, while computer access remains low at roughly 11.6 percent.

Internet use is far higher in urban areas such as Nairobi than in rural counties like Turkana, West Pokot and Marsabit.

These gaps in access and digital literacy leave many citizens unable to complete online government transactions, making Huduma Centres a vital point of service for essential documents and social support programmes.

Fired State officers and public servants look set to continue enjoying cheap repayment of car loans in a controversial move aimed at spurring uptake of the State Officers and Public Officers Motor Car Loan Scheme Fund.

The Treasury has proposed that officers and civil servants dismissed on disciplinary grounds will not have their repayment terms revert to higher commercial rates. The average commercial bank lending rate stood at 14.88 percent as at November last year.

Additionally, the Treasury wants to lower the interest rate on the loans to four percent from the current five percent.

Since its inception in 2015, the State Officers and Public Officers Motor Car Loan Scheme Fund has grappled with dismal uptake, with slightly above Sh324 million disbursed. The fund is allocated hundreds of millions of shillings every financial year.

The controversial move comes amid growing disciplinary cases in the public service, with the number of civil servants fired rising to 858 in the year ended June 2024, a jump of 67.5 percent from 512 a year earlier.

‘Following consultation between the National Treasury, the Salaries and Remuneration Commission and the Public Service Commission, it has also been found necessary to effect the following amendments to the regulations; Reduce the applicable interest rate from five percent to four percent,’ Treasury CS John Mbadi says in the proposals.

‘Delete clause stating that the interest rate will revert to commercial terms for officers leaving the service on disciplinary grounds.’

The government rolled out the State Officers and Public Officers Motor Car Loan Scheme Fund in 2015 in a bid to make public service more attractive amid increased competition from the private sector for top talent.

Under the scheme, beneficiaries enjoy interest rates of five percent and a loan repayment period of five years. The fund is open to all civil servants and State officers, excluding those earning less than Sh20,000 and those serving in the Judiciary and Parliament.

Treasury projects that adoption of the two proposals will help lift the number of beneficiaries from 106 in June 2024 to 1,125 by June 2028, and also push uptake from Sh324 million to Sh2.267 billion over the same period.

A survey conducted by Treasury across ministries, departments and agencies shows that the five-year repayment period and restrictions barring beneficiaries from deploying the vehicle for commercial use during the repayment period are derailing uptake of the loans.

The Auditor-General has on several occasions flagged the dismal uptake, warning that billions of shillings lying idle in the kitty should be channelled to pressing and priority items, concerns that Treasury has cited in its latest push.

‘The low absorption of loans threatens the very existence of the Fund. It is a pointer to an issue concerning the sustainability of the Fund. There is a risk of the funds allocated to the Fund being recalled,’ Mr Mbadi added.

Italian firm Guala Closures SpA, which supplies closures for wines, spirits, and glass-bottled water, plans to acquire a 47-year-old Kenyan firm specialising in the manufacture and sale of plastic caps and metal crowns.

Guala has applied for regulatory clearance to acquire a 100 percent stake in Metal Crowns Limited (Kenya) at a yet-to-be-disclosed price. The Metal Crowns stake is held by Mantiax Investments Limited.

The proposed transaction has been notified to the Comesa Competition Commission, which has launched a formal inquiry into the deal. Completion of the transaction will allow Guala to enter the plastic closures market for non-alcoholic beverages, complementing its current portfolio.

‘The parties submitted from the target group (Metal Crowns) perspective that the proposed transaction is expected to bring operational efficiencies and present an opportunity for the sellers (Mantiax) to realise their investment in the target group,’ reads the commission’s inquiry notice.

Guala is a global player in specialty closure solutions for the beverage sector. The firm already has a local unit in Kenya called Guala Closures East Africa Ltd, which it set up in 2017. The company’s other units in Africa are in South Africa and Nigeria.

Guala began Nairobi operations in 2018 with a plant dedicated to serving the local spirits market with complex anti-counterfeiting closures integrating advanced technologies. The firm uses the Nairobi unit to serve other markets, including the Democratic Republic of Congo, Eswatini, Madagascar, and Zimbabwe.

The targeted company, Metal Crowns, was incorporated in 1978 and has production plants in Nairobi (Kenya), Dares Salaam (Tanzania), and Hosur (India). Some of its key customers are Coca-Cola, Pepsi, Castel, Heineken, Diageo, and AB inBev.

Metal Crowns manufactures the tops in Kenya and sells them locally as well as to countries such as Burundi, Ethiopia, Malawi, Rwanda, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. In addition, it sells plastic closures in DRC, Kenya, Mauritius, Rwanda, Uganda, and Zambia.

Previous disclosures by Guala in October last year, when it signed the sale agreement, showed Metal Crowns generated aggregated revenues of approximately pound 32 million (Sh4.8 billion) in the 12-month period ending July 2025.

Guala wants to use the acquisition to expand its presence in East African markets, which it argues are fast-growing, supported by favourable demographics, economic development, and rising consumption.

‘By combining our international expertise with Metal Crowns’ local strength, we aim to build a solid platform to drive sustainable growth and innovation across the region. Leveraging Metal Crowns’ longstanding relationships with global customers, we expect to gain further opportunities to expand into other East African countries,’ said Andrea Lodetti, CEO of Guala, when the agreement was signed.

According to a notice issued by the Comesa commission, the acquisition will be assessed under Articles 24 and 26 of the Comesa Competition Regulations to determine whether it is likely to substantially prevent or lessen competition within the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa region.

Guala and Metal Crowns have told the regional competition watchdog that there are limited geographic overlaps between their operations.

The two firms explained that the overlaps are confined to Zambia and Zimbabwe and relate only to the sale and distribution of metal crowns. They further indicated that they do not have a vertical relationship in the Comesa region.

Africa faces a defining moment in its global engagement as the United States signals a retreat from multilateral leadership and tightens access to its borders.

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These shifts are not isolated policy adjustments but structural changes with far-reaching consequences for diplomacy, development, and the global power balance. How African states respond will determine whether this moment accelerates continental autonomy or entrenches new forms of marginalisation.

The shrinking engagement of the United States with international institutions marks a significant departure from decades of multilateral cooperation.

The announced intention to withdraw from 66 international organisations reflects a broader pivot away from cooperative global governance toward transactional diplomacy guided by narrow national interests.

For Africa, this poses a threat to platforms that have long enabled collective advocacy on climate resilience, development finance, labour standards, and fair trade.

Multilateral forums have historically amplified African voices within an unequal international system.

Through these institutions, African states secured technical assistance, coordinated regional positions, and negotiated for development priorities often overlooked by powerful actors. A reduced US presence weakens these mechanisms and risks shifting agenda-setting authority toward actors whose strategic objectives may diverge from Africa’s long-term interests.

The retreat from multilateralism coincides with a tightening of the United States visa regimes affecting African nationals. Financial bonds reaching fifteen thousand dollars, prolonged processing delays, and partial visa suspensions introduce powerful non-tariff barriers. These restrictions disrupt business travel, academic exchange, innovation partnerships, and diaspora engagement that are essential to economic growth and knowledge circulation.

Mobility remains central to Africa’s development trajectory. African students, researchers, professionals, and entrepreneurs contribute disproportionately to cross-border knowledge networks and investment flows. When access is constrained, the consequences extend beyond individual inconvenience to systemic economic costs, including reduced innovation, weaker remittance flows, and diminished global competitiveness.

Economists increasingly argue that restrictive visa regimes deepen structural inequalities rather than enhancing security outcomes. By limiting African participation in global knowledge systems, these policies risk isolating talent and slowing growth across multiple sectors.

For a continent with a youthful population and expanding human capital, mobility restrictions undermine one of Africa’s most significant comparative advantages.

These shifts unfold within a global context marked by intensifying geopolitical competition. China has consolidated its position as Africa’s largest trading partner through infrastructure investment, development finance, and sustained diplomatic engagement.

The European Union, while maintaining historical ties, is recalibrating its strategy in response to global uncertainty and the United States’ retrenchment. This evolving landscape presents Africa with both vulnerabilities and strategic openings.

Reduced access to Western-led platforms challenges African states to protect development gains achieved through decades of engagement. At the same time, it encourages diversification of partnerships and a reassessment of dependency patterns that have long constrained policy autonomy.

The erosion of predictable alliances demands more agile diplomacy and greater continental coordination.

Regional integration now assumes heightened importance as a buffer against external shocks. The African Continental Free Trade Area offers a framework for expanding intra-African trade, harmonizing regulations, and strengthening collective bargaining power.

Alongside African Union mechanisms, it provides tools for policy coordination, dispute resolution, and engagement with external partners from a position of greater unity.

Strengthening regional institutions can reduce reliance on single country gateways and mitigate vulnerability to abrupt policy shifts abroad. Collective negotiation enhances Africa’s leverage in trade, climate finance, and development cooperation.

It also reinforces a sense of shared destiny that transcends national boundaries and supports long-term stability.

South-South cooperation is emerging as a pragmatic response to restricted Western access. Visa-free travel agreements, alternative scholarship pathways, and regional research collaborations help preserve mobility and innovation.

Expanding partnerships with Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America diversifies opportunities while reducing exposure to unilateral restrictions imposed by traditional partners.

Recent initiatives by countries such as Ghana demonstrate how proactive policy choices can safeguard openness. By facilitating visa-free access and promoting continental mobility, African states can maintain economic exchange and cultural interaction even as external barriers rise. Such measures reinforce Africa’s commitment to integration and shared prosperity.

Failure to adapt to these changes carries significant risks. Reduced multilateral funding, constrained human mobility, and fragmented diplomacy could deepen Africa’s marginalization within global governance structures. Without strategic recalibration, the continent may find itself reacting to external decisions rather than shaping outcomes aligned with its interests.

Conversely, this moment presents an opportunity to assert agency and redefine Africa’s global engagement. Diversifying diplomatic partnerships strengthens resilience and reduces dependency. Investing in regional integration enhances internal markets and collective strength. Championing mobility as an economic necessity supports innovation and inclusive growth.

Africa’s response must be deliberate and coordinated across governments, civil society, and the private sector.

Ministries responsible for foreign affairs, trade, education, finance, and climate policy must align strategies toward shared objectives. Continental advocacy on visa regimes and mobility rights should become a priority within global forums.

Strategic foresight is essential in navigating an increasingly multipolar world. Traditional alliances are no longer guaranteed, and competition for influence is intensifying. Africa must therefore articulate clear priorities, protect development interests, and engage multiple centers of power without compromising sovereignty.

The retreat of the United States does not predetermine Africa’s decline within the international system. Outcomes will depend on choices made today regarding integration, partnership diversification, and institutional strengthening. With cohesive strategies and proactive diplomacy, Africa can transform uncertainty into leverage.

Ultimately, this period will define Africa’s role in the next phase of global relations. The continent can either remain vulnerable to external policy shifts or emerge as an architect of its own engagement. Strategic clarity, regional cohesion, and sustained investment in human capital will shape which path prevails.

Africa’s future influence rests on its capacity to adapt with confidence rather than apprehension. By embracing autonomy while remaining globally engaged, the continent can secure a more equitable position within the evolving international order. This moment demands leadership, unity, and vision equal to the scale of the challenge.

Kenya is a nation of entrepreneurs. We excel at perfecting existing businesses as well as creating innovative solutions to bring value propositions in new ways to new customers in new markets.

Not surprisingly, much research and commentary go into how new companies or existing firms with new products enter various markets. As a species, humans are fascinated with novelty which brings us to love our imagination of new products and services.

January often arrives with loud promises. Vision boards, resolutions, motivational quotes and well-meaning advice dominate conversations.

Yet as the year settles, many professionals quietly realise that despite hard work and ambition, progress feels slow, confusing or blocked altogether. Careers stall. Teams underperform. Frustration builds.