Category: Business Daily

The Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) has withheld dividends to the Treasury for the first time in seven years despite declaring a surplus of Sh65.8 billion, hurting State revenues.

The banking regulator retained profits in the race to increase capital to Sh100 billion ahead of 2027, up from Sh60 billion.

I’ve been reading The Power of a Positive No: Save the Deal Save the Relationship – and Still Say No by William Ury, the author of the earlier bestseller, Getting to Yes.

Ury is an experienced mediator, at levels from the corporate to the national, and he is a co-founder of the Harvard Law School Negotiation Programme. I found his writing very helpful. just as I do the related Disagreeing Well initiative at University College London, where I was an undergraduate.

Kenya’s recent decision to begin repaying part of its loans to China in yuan rather than US dollars marks a quiet but powerful shift in how the country manages its external finances.

This move is not just about debt repayment mechanics-it’s a deliberate, forward-looking step toward fiscal prudence, economic flexibility, and a stronger strategic partnership with China.

For years, Kenya and many other developing nations have faced the challenge of managing dollar-denominated debt. Every time the US Federal Reserve adjusts its interest rates, the ripple effects reach Nairobi.

The strengthening of the dollar often translates into higher repayment costs, depreciating local currencies, and tighter budgets. Kenya’s pivot to the yuan is, therefore, both practical and timely – it is about aligning with a more stable, predictable, and mutually beneficial system.

By servicing its Chinese loans in yuan, Kenya is expected to save roughly Sh26.4 billion annually in interest and exchange costs.

This is a substantial financial relief that can support domestic priorities such as infrastructure maintenance, healthcare investment, and job creation.

In an economy where every shilling counts, the ability to redirect hundreds of millions in savings toward development is no small achievement.

But this decision is about more than numbers. It is about economic sovereignty. The yuan arrangement reduces Kenya’s dependence on the dollar and spreads currency risk more evenly across its external obligations.

When debt is diversified across multiple currencies, the government can manage fluctuations effectively and protect public finances from global shocks. The yuan, with its growing international usage and stability, offers a viable and forward-looking option.

This approach also reflects the natural evolution of Kenya’s relationship with China.

Over the past two decades, Beijing has become Nairobi’s largest bilateral lender and a key development partner, supporting transformative infrastructure projects like the standard gauge railway, major highways, and renewable energy installations.

Using yuan for repayment aligns seamlessly with the scale and depth of this partnership. It reduces unnecessary conversion costs, simplifies transactions, and enhances financial efficiency in bilateral trade.

Kenya’s embrace of the yuan is not just a financial adjustment – it is a statement of confidence in a multipolar world.

It affirms the country’s commitment to prudent economic management, global partnership, and national self-determination. In an era of shifting financial power, Kenya has chosen progress over passivity – and that makes all the difference.

Beyond Kenya, the use of the yuan in international finance is gaining momentum. Countries across Asia, the Middle East, and Africa are increasingly incorporating the Chinese currency into their trade and financial systems.

This shift reflects confidence in China’s economic strength and stability, as well as recognition of the yuan’s growing role as a global reserve and settlement currency. Kenya’s adoption of this model therefore positions it ahead of the curve – as part of an emerging network of economies that are embracing multipolar financial cooperation.

Importantly, Kenya’s decision is not about rejecting the dollar but about broadening options.

Economic diversification, in all its forms, is the cornerstone of resilience. Just as a well-balanced investment portfolio spreads risk, a diversified foreign exchange strategy shields the country from single-currency volatility.

By incorporating the yuan into its financial toolkit, Kenya gains more control over its fiscal destiny and builds confidence among international partners that it can adapt to global trends intelligently.

The yuan’s growing accessibility further supports this transition. China has established currency swap arrangements and financial settlement platforms that make yuan transactions easier for its partners.

This means Kenya can access yuan more efficiently, conduct trade smoothly, and repay loans without the friction of converting through third-party currencies. It is a system designed for cooperation and shared benefit.

What Kenya has done is therefore both practical and visionary. It demonstrates that sound economic management involves thinking beyond convention.

For decades, the dollar has been the default global currency, but that dominance has not always served emerging economies well. Kenya’s willingness to innovate – to structure its finances around currencies that complement its trade and development partnerships – shows a maturity that others in the region would do well to emulate.

The implications of this move extend beyond debt repayment. It represents a confident expression of Kenya’s place in a changing global order – one where emerging economies are shaping new financial norms based on cooperation, trust, and shared growth.

By strengthening its monetary ties with China, Kenya signals that it is ready to engage global partners on its own terms, guided by mutual respect and strategic vision.

In the long term, this shift could enhance Kenya’s creditworthiness, reduce exposure to external shocks, and attract new investment from partners who value stability and innovation.

It also reinforces Kenya’s role as a regional economic leader, setting an example for other African nations seeking smarter ways to manage external obligations and unlock fiscal space.

‘When will I afford marriage?’ This has become the quiet question many young professionals, some who are earning six-figure salaries, are asking themselves as they plan their financial futures.

Kevin Karanja, a 37-year-old finance professional, is not married despite having a steady job, decent income, and investments.

Children with blood disorders, including sickle cell anaemia and leukaemia, will soon be able to undergo bone marrow transplants in Kenya, eliminating the need to travel abroad for the procedure.

This follows the establishment of the region’s first paediatric bone marrow transplant centre at Gertrude’s Children’s Hospital in Nairobi.

Kenya needs a minimum of Sh30.45 billion ($235 million) investment to produce biofuel (sustainable aviation fuel) for airlines and replace up to 15 percent of the current jet fuel, according to a study by the World Bank.

The study shows that the funds can be used to set up the Hydrotreated Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA) facilities that can produce up to 4,000 barrels per day (BPD) of biofuel by refining vegetable oils and waste oils.

An oil marketer has lost its attempt to overturn a Sh578.56 million tax demand from the Kenya Revenue Authority (KRA) for filing the appeal 10 days out of time.

Evon Energy International Limited had sought the intervention of the Tax Appeals Tribunal to overturn the claim, but all its arguments were thrown out for filing crucial documents past the legally permitted time.

With the long rains here, now is a good time to talk about financing the agricultural sector, the sufficient lack of which continues to hinder the sector from unleashing its true transformative potential.

Despite agriculture accounting for 34 percent of the general economy and generating about one out of 10 formal jobs, the sector receives minimal funding. Data from the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) shows the agricultural sector received Sh134.2 billion in credit out of the total Sh3,797.5 billion extended to businesses, accounting for just 3.53 percent of the total private sector credit.

Manufacturing accounted for Sh580.2 billion of loans to the private sector, or slightly more than four times what went to agriculture. To be fair to commercial lenders, they are shy about lending to the sector because it is a risky affair.

Last year, Kenya faced its worst flooding in over two decades, and just a year before, the country experienced the most severe drought in 40 years, both of which devastated crops and livestock production.

Still, agriculture is an important sector for the economy because it offers the path of least resistance towards poverty reduction.

After all, increasing productivity is simpler than other sectors. For example, to boost productivity a combination of availing the right seeds, fertilisers, and credit, as we have seen in the maize sub-sector, which hit an estimated record 70 million bags in 2024, up from 48 million bags in 2023 or a 46 percent increase.

This was attributed to the availability and stocking of the right fertilisers and seeds. This bumper harvest is not only creating jobs, but it’s also directly benefiting Kenyans by significantly reducing the price of maize flour, their dietary staple.

The above example is evidence that financing the agricultural sector by providing funds for purchasing quality fertilisers, seeds, pesticides, feeds, and other inputs can have a palpable effect on lives and livelihoods.

However, how can we effectively lend to the sector while managing risks and ensuring returns for lenders? Partnering with companies that are using technology to overcome these hurdles offers a promising solution. Agri-fintechs are such companies. These startups are using technology-driven insights to enable them to better lend to players in the agricultural value chain in better ways than traditional lenders, which even the banking regulator recognises.

The CBK’s November 2024 Agricultural Sector Survey Report highlights an improvement in access to credit for the agricultural sector, attributing this in part to digital lending, which effectively reaches businesses in the agricultural value chain in remote areas lacking brick-and-mortar banks or saccos.

Despite its immense potential for improving lives and livelihoods, the sector is underfunded. Therefore, there is an urgent need for innovative agricultural financing. Partnering with agri-fintech companies offers a promising solution not only for Kenya but also for the rest of Africa.

Agri-fintechs are also more adaptable or malleable to the realities of the agricultural sector value chain. For example, the cash flow cycle for the agricultural sector is different than other sectors.

The lion’s share of funding is often required ahead of the planting season but sales happen after harvesting which is months away.

Even where there are financial products that reflect these dynamics, traditional lenders are more comfortable working with larger firms in the sector and not SMEs, who have relationships, collateral, etc. but these only make up a small percentage of the larger agricultural value chain, leaving many underserved.

Speed is also one area where agritechs have an advantage over other mainstream lenders.

Speed is particularly important because often it can mean the difference between missing an opportunity or making a loss. Agri-fintech solutions facilitate rapid lending decisions, often within days, a crucial advantage given the unpredictable nature of rainfall patterns or market demands.

In most Nairobi satellite estates, progress has meant concrete, gates, and a quiet disappearance of neighbourly ties. But as new gated communities rise and glass, Gikambura somehow seems unchanged. It feels like a village that remembers itself even as it grows.

Here, amid Kiambu’s quiet hills, neighbours still share flour and stories, farmers still deliver milk at dawn, and men and women still meet in chamas, bringing cash in hand rather than M-Pesa transfers. That enduring sense of community is Gikambura’s quiet charm in a county racing toward modernity.

When the Covid-19 pandemic struck in early 2020, Africa found itself waiting at the back of the queue for vaccines and financial support.

Whereas wealthier nations secured vaccine doses in advance, most African countries had to wait for months because they lacked domestic manufacturing capacity and emergency financing buffers.

When help finally arrived, it was through global donation mechanisms such as COVAX (Covid-19 Vaccines Global Access).

It was yet another painful reminder of how dependence on external aid often leaves the continent vulnerable. More importantly, it underscored the need to urgently mobilise domestic capital and provide local solutions to our challenges. In other words, how can we unlock the vast pools of capital already within our borders instead of relying on aid?

The recent aid cuts are yet another reminder that we should strive to build independence and resilience, thereby reducing our dependence on donations.

Over the years, I’ve seen African innovators with brilliant ideas struggle to find funding, not because their ideas are not viable, but because financiers are too cautious to provide the initial capital required to test new ideas or markets due to perceived risks.

This has led to a development paradox of sorts. Sample this: The continent faces a $200 billion (Sh25.9 trillion) annual gap in financing the Sustainable Development Goals.

Yet Africa has more than $2 trillion (Sh259 trillion) lying dormant in pension funds, insurance companies, and sovereign wealth funds.

This capital could fund the hospitals, schools, clean energy, and job-creating enterprises the continent urgently needs.

This clearly shows that Africa does not lack capital; all it requires is risk-tolerant capital. Most private investors, such as pension funds and insurance companies, still perceive investing in social ventures as too risky. This is precisely where catalytic capital comes in.

Catalytic capital refers to risk-tolerant funding that absorbs early risk so that later investors can come in safely to scale.

It funds innovation, supports testing of new products, services, markets, and derisks social investments to make them attractive to private capital. It is the kind of capital that helps test concepts until they become attractive to private capital for scaling.

In simple terms, it is the ‘patient money’ that helps build bridges between philanthropy and profit. It can come from philanthropies, development finance institutions, governments, or even visionary corporates who are willing to test new models before the market catches up.

Without catalytic capital, countless game-changing African enterprises will remain trapped in what some call the ‘missing middle’ – too big for grants, too small or risky for commercial loans. These are the enterprises that could transform healthcare, agriculture, education, and clean energy if only they could access the right kind of financing.

And time is not on our side. Africa’s population is expected to double by 2050. The continent needs to create about 15 million jobs annually by 2030 to absorb new entrants into the labour market.

Yet our small and medium enterprises, the engine of employment, remain underfunded. At the same time, climate change, food insecurity, and gender inequality are deepening.

If we fail to mobilise the catalytic capital required to crowd in private capital now, the continent risks deepening poverty, worsening unemployment, and remaining highly vulnerable to future crises.

One of the biggest misconceptions about social investments on the continent is that Africa lacks investable opportunities. That is not true. Across the continent, entrepreneurs are innovating daily – from solar irrigation systems in Kenya to telemedicine platforms in Nigeria, and affordable private schools in Ghana. What they lack is early-stage capital that can absorb risk and prove commercial viability.

Another misconception is that you can’t make money while doing good.

The truth is that social investments can be profitable for social investors. Standard Chartered’s Opportunities 2030 report shows that sectors such as healthcare, education, and agriculture offer both strong financial returns and deep social impact. Profits in development are not bad when they are fair. They make social solutions sustainable and reduce their dependence on grants.

It is encouraging that we are already seeing examples of catalytic capital in action across Africa. In several countries, guarantee mechanisms have been used to unlock debt financing for small and medium-sized enterprises once considered too risky by banks.

In South Africa, similar guarantees have enabled medical students from underrepresented backgrounds to access education loans.

In Kenya, social impact bonds have supported reproductive health services for thousands of young women. In all these cases, philanthropic capital was used to derisk the programme to pave the way for scaling by other funders.

To make catalytic capital work, governments, philanthropies, and private investors must work together. Governments can formulate enabling policies and deploy limited public funds in catalytic ways through results-based financing or co-investment funds.

Philanthropies can provide risk capital and technical assistance. Private investors can then come in to scale proven models. Together, these actors can reduce risks and unlock larger flows of private capital.