Category: Business Daily

The Nairobi City Water and Sewerage Company (NWSC) has warned that the suspension of Tata Chemicals Magadi’s operations could disrupt water treatment in the capital.

The utility firm said its three main water treatment plants use soda ash to control the level of hydrogen ions in water, commonly referred to as pH. NWSC revealed that it relies on Tata Chemicals Magadi for more than 360 tonnes of soda ash every month.

‘The Magadi facility… shutdown converts a routine, low-risk water treatment step into an emergency requiring substitute chemicals, new water treatment chemical dosing equipment and intensified water quality monitoring,’ the utility said.

Water pH measures the concentration of hydrogen ions in water, indicating how acidic or alkaline it is. The pH scale ranges from 0 to 14, with 7 being neutral. pH values less than 7 indicate acidity, whereas a pH of greater than 7 indicates a base.

Magadi is the only domestic manufacturer of natural soda ash in Kenya. Nairobi Water uses the chemical to adjust the pH of treated water and stabilise it against corrosion in distribution networks.

The High Court last week declined to lift the July 28 suspension of Tata Chemicals Magadi’s operations over a licensing and compliance dispute with the government. Tata Chemicals’ dispute centres around alleged royalty obligations and compliance with licensing, export reporting, community agreements, local employment and environmental rules.

The government says the company does not hold a current mining licence because its application was still being processed.

It also says the firm received several notices over alleged royalty arrears. The firm denies owing royalties.

The High Court last week declined to lift the firm’s suspension, ruling that the decision had already taken effect when the mining company moved to court.

Nairobi Water has warned the shutdown leaves utilities relying on costly imports because there is no other known operating natural soda ash source in East Africa.

The utility said the locally available hydrated lime is not a matching substitute to soda ash because it can increase the risk of line scaling and blockage, pH swings, elevated turbidity, residual aluminium and higher maintenance and safety burdens.

‘One key advantage (of soda ash) over other locally available alternative alkalis is that it dissolves fully into a true solution, allowing for precise, stable dosing,’ Nairobi Water said.

Last week, the court said it was not required at this stage to determine the merits of the dispute. The case is expected to return to court on October 6.

Tata Chemicals is also involved in a separate Supreme Court case with the Kajiado County Government over land rates and royalties, with the county demanding Sh17.45 billion for alleged arrears between 2013 and 2018.

Absa Group says it bought 189.38 million shares from the bank’s minority shareholders from the 895.9 million stocks the multinational had offered to purchase, representing a 21.1 percent subscription.

It got the shares, equivalent to a 3.49 percent stake in Absa Kenya, from 2,045 shareholders out of the 66,771 minority investors in the Kenyan bank.

Absa Group, which held around 68.5 percent of Absa Bank Kenya, offered Sh34.50 per share to buy stocks from minority investors in a transaction that was expected to lift its stake by up to 16.5 percent.

But 64,726 minority shareholders skipped the tender offer, leaving Sh24.4 billion of Sh30.8 billion of war chest that Absa has set aside for snapping the shares on the table.

Analysts linked the under-subscription to the surge in Absa’s share price at the Nairobi bourse, which narrowed the premium that the South African multinational had offered in the tender.

Absa stock opened trading at Sh29.20 at the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE) on June 19, the day its parent firm announced the tender offer, which closed on August 11.

The share stood at Sh33.65 on August 11 and closed trading at Sh34.40 on Wednesday.

‘The offer appears to have underperformed mainly because shareholders viewed the offer price of Sh34.5 as insufficient relative to Absa’s earnings potential, dividend track record and the stock’s recent price appreciation,’ argued James Kinya, research and global markets analyst at Rock Investment Bank.

‘Looking at the current share price, the premium appeared less compelling and thus minority investors had little incentive to give up future upside. Moreover, the offer also gave larger shareholders less certainty that all shares they tendered would be accepted, which may have further reduced their willingness to participate,’ added Mr Kinya.

The bank on Tuesday more than doubled its interim dividend to Sh0.50 per share despite reporting a 9.8 percent decline in net profit for the half year ended June 2026.

The lender reported a net profit of Sh10.5 billion in the half year to June, down from Sh11.6 billion posted in a similar period last year.

Its management attributed the profit drop to a lower interest rate regime, one-off costs and a slump in forex earnings.

Absa Group will earn Sh1.95 billion from the interim dividend for the 71.99 percent stake.

South African banks have been stepping up acquisitions in East Africa, filling a vacuum left by retreating European banks ?and riding a wave of increased continental trade and investments into energy and infrastructure.

South Africa’s slow growth and mature sector are pushing its biggest banks to expand elsewhere.

Nedbank agreed earlier this year to acquire a majority stake in Kenya’s NCBA, beating South African rival Standard Bank, which operates in Kenya as Stanbic, to the prize.

Kenya’s appeal lies in its gateway role to the East African Community, a fast growing bloc expanding by at least 5.0 percent a year.

Absa is likely to return to shareholders with an improved offer, having identified the acquisition as a key to widening its presence in the retail market.

In its offer document, the group also left open the option of acquiring additional shares through open market trades or a new, improved tender should the offer fail to hit its target.

‘Absa Group reserves the right, subject to obtaining any necessary approvals from the Capital Markets Authority (CMA) or any other relevant regulatory authorities…to launch one or more additional tender offers in relation to Absa Kenya, or otherwise to acquire additional shares through on-market transactions in Absa Kenya, following the close of the tender offer,’ Absa Group said in its tender offer document.

Should the bank exercise its right to approach Absa Kenya shareholders again for more shares, it would mirror the actions of rival South African lender Standard Bank when it acquired an additional 15 percent stake in Stanbic Kenya from 2018 at a cost of more than Sh5 billion.

Standard Bank launched its tender offer in May 2018, seeking an additional 59 million shares at a price of Sh95 apiece that would have raised its holding in Stanbic from 60 percent to 75 percent.

The offer failed to hit its target after getting an extra 8.01 percent at the closing period, raising ownership to 68 percent.

The bank later sought and obtained approval from the CMA to bridge the gap to 75 percent through open market share purchases.

It bought the additional shares over the next four years, ultimately hitting the 75 percent target in May 2022.

“Kenya is a strategically important market for Absa Group and remains central to our East Africa growth ambitions,” Charles Russon, Absa’s group executive for Africa ?regions, said earlier.

He added the proposal reflected confidence in the bank’s leadership, strategy and long-term growth prospects, as well as Absa’s commitment to supporting Kenya’s economy.

Absa Group, South Africa’s third-biggest lender by assets, said it intends to maintain Absa Kenya’s listing on ?the NSE after the transaction.

The group added it does not plan to alter the bank’s business strategy, management team, staffing levels or day-to-day operations.

Absa’s Africa Regions ?business contributed 31 percent to group headline earnings in 2025.

That same year, Kenya contributed about 19 percent of the profits in the Africa regions portfolio.

Car and General has joined a select group of stocks at the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE) that have recorded triple-digit percentage gains in the last three years, offering relief to owners who sat on low valuations during the bourse’s prolonged bear run between 2015 and 2023.

The diversified trading company with interests in mobility, engines, poultry, property and other goods, has reported higher profits and dividend payouts this year, adding fuel to the price rally that set off just over a year ago.

It announced a four-fold growth in net profit to Sh2.6 billion in the six months to June, from Sh637 million in the first half of 2025. The company raised its interim dividend to Sh1 per share from Sh0.30 a year ago.

‘The first round of speculation from mid-2025 was about the value of the company’s property assets, where a back of the envelope calculation showed that the stock was trading below the value of the assets,’ said Wesley Manambo, a senior research associate at Standard Investment Bank.

‘With the core business doing well and the company reporting higher profits, the momentum has carried on as more investors jump in to speculate on the stock.’

As the share price continues to rise, so has investor activity on the stock, indicating that demand is going up even as those who have booked large capital gains cash out to book the profits.

In July, the stock was trading an average of 5,200 shares per day, with weekly volumes settling at between 17,000 and 36,000 shares.

In August, the weekly volumes rose to between 90,000 shares and 208,000 shares, with a daily average number of shares traded of 34,500 shares.

Since the beginning of 2024, companies such as East Africa Portland Cement (EAPC), Kenya Power, Uchumi Supermarkets, Africa Mega Agricorp (formerly trading as Kenya Orchards) and KenGen have led the market with gains of between 400 percent and 1,500 percent.

These gains were driven primarily by local retail investors who have made a gradual return to the market as share prices lifted from the previous bear run. Retailers are likelier to speculate on stocks that are seen to be within reach due to low nominal share prices, even when there is a risk of losses due to some companies having weak fundamentals.

Others with outsized gains of more than 100 percent in the period include Home Afrika, HFCB, Flame Tree Group, Britam Holdings, and the NSE.

Large cap firms Safaricom, KCB Group, Co-operative Bank of Kenya, I and M Group have also seen their share prices go up by more than 100 percent within the past two years, boosting the overall valuation of the bourse to a record Sh4.08 trillion from Sh1.44 trillion at the beginning of 2024.

The same sun, the same solar technology, but radically different financing costs: renewable energy capital costs are about three times higher in Africa than in Europe, making clean energy more expensive before a single panel is installed.

Africa faces a profound energy paradox. It has vast untapped renewable potential, from geothermal resources to abundant solar radiation, yet accounts for only 4 percent of global energy consumption. About 570 million people still live without electricity, while 923 million lack access to affordable clean cooking technologies.

Clean energy is increasingly becoming the cheaper option as technology costs fall. Between 2010 and 2024, the levelised cost of electricity fell by about 90 percent for solar photovoltaic and 93 percent for battery storage.

Yet Africa, home to 20 percent of the world’s population and its youngest population, receives only 2 percent of global renewable energy investment. In 2022, clean energy spending was about $25 billion, far below what is needed to achieve universal energy access and global climate goals.

The problem is largely financial. Renewable energy projects in Africa face financing costs two to four times higher than similar projects in Europe or North America.

Kenya, for example, receives far more solar radiation than Germany, giving it a natural advantage in solar generation. Yet Germany has attracted significantly more renewable energy investment.

The weighted average cost of capital for renewable energy projects averages about 12 percent in Africa, compared with 3.8 percent in Europe. Investors demand higher returns to compensate for perceived continental risk. Consequently, the cost of money often outweighs the cost of technology.

The irony is stark. Africa possesses about 80 percent of the world’s platinum reserves, 50 percent of cobalt and 40 percent of manganese-minerals essential to the clean-energy transition-yet pays a premium for renewable technologies.

Africa’s challenge is therefore not a technology deficit but a financing deficit. Governments must strengthen institutions, improve policy and regulatory frameworks, reduce investment risks and mobilise cheaper, longer-term capital.

Lowering the risk premium would unlock investment, expand energy access and enable Africa to capture greater value from the global clean energy transition.

Key among this is the shift to defined contribution pension schemes where members’ benefits are informed by investment returns.

Therefore, for every shilling not remitted, a member loses the principal but also years of compounded investment income they can never recover.

The inference of this is that employers should put a deliberate effort to remit on time so as not to jeopardise the wellbeing of their employees. Data from the Retirement Benefits Authority (RBA) shows that unremitted contributions across Kenya’s retirement benefits sector stood at Sh73.14 billion in December 2025. These figures include real deductions taken from workers payslips that were never transferred to the schemes meant to grow and safeguard them.

The credibility of the sector rests on employers’ remittance as a non-negotiable obligation rather than a discretionary expense to be deferred when budgets tighten. When a payroll deduction are directed towards other pressing costs, it implies that quietly borrowing from their own employees’ futures, without consent and without collateral.

It is worth reflecting on what the Sh73.14 billion represents, not just as unpaid contributions but as a foregone investment income. Pensions schemes do not hold members contributions in cash. Schemes invest members’ contributions in line with the investment guidelines issued by the RBA, and as per individual scheme’s prudent investment policy.

Had the Sh73.14 billion been remitted to pension schemes, it would have been invested in a mix of assets classes including government securities, equities, immovable property, offshore, private equity and other alternatives. This will in turn deepen the capital markets and propel economic development arising from pension savings.

Applying the industry’s reported investment performance for the period, in which the sector’s investment income reached Sh291.5 billion against an asset base of Sh2.5 trillion, that Sh73.14 billion would have generated Sh8.4 billion in investment income, an 11.5 per cent return.

Assessing the performance of this portfolio using reported industry actual asset class returns, the assets would have generated 13 percent in Government securities, 10 per cent in guaranteed funds, 48.9 per cent in quoted equities, 6 percent in immovable property and 11.5 percent in offshore and other alternatives. Members would have earned Ksh11.48 billion in investment income, a 15.7per cent blended return.

This dimension of the remittance gap thrusts workers trust of the pension system in the balance. Trust is the single most important asset a pension scheme holds, perhaps even more than the assets under management. Workers who discover at retirement that their years of deductions were never remitted do not simply lose money, they lose faith in their employers and pension schemes.

Pension schemes have a duty to press for full and timely remittance from employers, but we also have a duty to be transparent to our own members about compliance levels. Members trust should be earned through visibility rather than assumed through silence.

RBA has proposed a statutory clearance mechanism in which sponsoring employers would only access disbursements or statutory funds from the National Treasury upon proof of full compliance with their remittance obligations. RBA has also proposed enhancing penalties and personal liability for the accounting officers responsible for defaults.

The Kenya Revenue Authority (amendment) Bill, 2026, would extend to KRA the enforcement toolkit it already applies to tax defaulters.

This means the Government is moving to treat an unremitted pension contribution with the same rigour as it treats an unpaid tax bill.

Closing this remittance gap will require three things working in harmony.

First, proactive enforcement so that the cost of non-remittance is higher than the short-term convenience of withholding a remittance.

Second, personal accountability so that non-remittance is not hidden behind institutional anonymity. Third, pension schemes need to embrace transparency to members so that members can access the contributions history.

The profit drop follows a 34.8 percent decline in interest earned from government securities, with the lender having reduced its investment in Treasury bills and bonds to Sh96.9 billion from Sh103 billion a year earlier.

StandChart increased its lending to the productive private sector, with its loan book growing 11.1 percent to Sh169.2 billion, faster than the 6.4 percent expansion of its deposit base to Sh309.1 billion.

This comes at a time when private sector lending in the country rose to 10.4 percent in June following an aggressive push by the Central Bank to lower interest rates and spur borrowing.

‘Total interest income declined 17.5 percent, driven by lower income from government securities and loans and advances amid declining interest rates,’ said Sterling Capital in a note to investors.

‘Net interest income fell 19.8 percent to Sh12.3bn, as the decline in interest income was not offset by a meaningful reduction in interest expense,’ added the note.

StanChart’s total operating expenses declined during the period, driven by lower loan loss provisions as its gross non-performing loans improved 6.5 percent to Sh9 billion.

StanChart is the second large international lender, after Absa, to increase its interim dividend despite a profit drop.

StanChart has disclosed intentions to sell some of its property holdings as it scales back physical presence in the country in favour of digital banking.

Some of the properties on sale include its headquarters, the Chiromo Building located in Westlands, which was valued by the lender at Sh1.411 billion.

The bank announced it sold its iconic Treasury Square building in Mombasa and the Nyeri branch last year.

Small schemes are increasingly turning to guaranteed pension funds to shield members’ savings from market volatility and secure predictable returns, driving assets in the products to Sh597.1 billion by June 2026.

Data from the Retirement Benefits Authority (RBA) shows that assets held in guaranteed funds rose by 14.3 percent during the first half of the year to Sh597.1 billion from Sh522.4 billion in December 2025.

The growth has lifted guaranteed funds’ share of the pension industry’s Sh3.09 trillion assets under management to 19.35 percent, up from 18.59 percent six months earlier.

A guaranteed fund is an insurance-based investment product that puts money in assets such as equities, bonds and index funds while providing a minimum guaranteed value at maturity or upon death regardless of drops in the financial market.

RBA attributed the sustained expansion of guaranteed pension funds to the growing preference among smaller schemes for capital protection amid unstable interest rates.

‘This sustained growth shows that a substantial segment of smaller schemes continues to favour capital protection, ease of administration, and stable returns offered by approved issuers in a fluctuating interest rate environment,’ said RBA.

The growth of guaranteed pension investments comes as pension managers increasingly rebalance portfolios away from traditional fixed-income investments following the easing of monetary policy.

The Central Bank Rate fell to 8.75 percent in February and remained at that level through June, putting pressure on returns from new government securities and bank deposits.

The guaranteed-funds market is, however, becoming increasingly competitive. RBA data shows the top five issuers-Jubilee Insurance, ICEA Lion Life Assurance, Britam Life, Kenindia Assurance and GA Life-controlled 83.4 percent of the segment at the end of June.

Jubilee Insurance emerged as the market leader after its guaranteed-fund assets rose 15 percent to Sh136.6 billion, overtaking ICEA Lion, whose portfolio increased seven percent to Sh135.4 billion.

‘A major highlight for the period was a shift in market leadership: Jubilee Insurance grew by 15 percent to reach Sh136.61 billion, overtaking ICEA Lion,’ said RBA.

Britam Life Assurance retained third position after its portfolio increased by 13 percent to Sh87.22 billion, while Kenindia posted one of the strongest gains among major players, rising by 27 percent to Sh81.04 billion.

GA Life rounded out the top five after growing its portfolio by 15 percent to Sh57.8 billion.

The competitive pressure was also evident further down the market. Sanlam Life Assurance increased its guaranteed assets by 28 percent to Sh4.7 billion, while Prudential Life grew 24 percent to Sh4.8 billion.

Capex Life recorded the fastest percentage increase, although from a much smaller base, with assets rising by 224 percent to Sh112.4 million.

At industry level, guaranteed funds remain the fourth-largest asset class after government securities. Government securities accounted for Sh1.43 trillion, or 46.35 percent of total pension assets, followed by quoted equities which surged to Sh443.35 billion, taking a 14.37 percent share.

The shift towards equities and alternatives has been reinforced by the strong recovery at the Nairobi Securities Exchange, where pension funds benefited from valuation gains. Quoted equity holdings increased by 41.7 percent during the first six months of 2026.

However, while guaranteed-funds growth shows that larger schemes and fund managers are increasing exposure to equities, offshore investments, private equity and other alternatives, smaller schemes continue to place a premium on capital preservation and predictable investment outcomes.

KCB Group targets to raise Sh100 billion by October 2026 as the first tranche of a five-year Sh300 billion medium-term note (MTN) programme, setting the stage for a significantly large capital mobilisation initiative if approved by regulators.

An MTN is a debt instrument used by corporations and financial institutions to raise capital. It usually matures in five to 10 years, offering a middle ground between short- and long-term debt.

KCB expects to list the first tranche in November, which would push the value of issued and outstanding corporate bonds at the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE) to about Sh205.3 billion.

The Sh300 billion programme is the largest corporate debt programme announced in Kenya, although KCB executives say the size is achievable given the potential to raise funds in both local and foreign currencies.

KCB Group Chief Executive Officer Paul Russo rejected suggestions that the programme was overly ambitious.

‘I actually think Sh300 billion is not ambitious,’ he said on Wednesday when the lender launched a Sustainability Bond Framework.

‘The moment you start splitting local currency and foreign currency, you start realising why the Sh300 billion is actually rational,’ he said.

KCB Investment Bank Managing Director, Maurice Opiyo, said that the plan is to issue the note in both Kenyan shillings and US dollar denominations, with the currency split of either 50:50 or 60:40, although the final structure would depend on market conditions.

KCB plans to issue green, blue and sustainability bonds as part of the fundraiser programme, with proceeds targeted at projects and activities with environmental and social benefits.

‘The launch of the sustainability bond framework is a natural progression of the work the group has been doing over the last two decades to structure innovative financing solutions and support investments that have a meaningful economic and social impact. This is about bringing capital, purpose and accountability and using finance as a force for good while creating sustainable value for all our stakeholders,’ Mr Russo said.

Under the green bond category, eligible projects include renewable energy, energy efficiency, green buildings, clean transportation, sustainable forestry, waste management and sustainable water-related projects. Renewable-energy investments can include solar, wind, hydro and qualifying geothermal projects.

The blue bond category will finance projects supporting the sustainable use of marine and freshwater resources. These include sustainable fisheries and aquaculture, low-emission maritime transport, water-quality monitoring and related infrastructure.

The sustainability bond category combines eligible green and social projects, allowing KCB to direct funds towards both environmental and social priorities.

Among the social projects targeted is affordable housing, including financing aligned with the Affordable Housing Programme; developer loans for green-certified affordable housing; and concessional refinancing through Kenya Mortgage Refinance Company (KMRC). The framework also targets micro small and medium enterprises led by women and youth.

The framework comes as demand for corporate debt has strengthened following several successful issues.

Safaricom’s green bond attracted bids worth Sh41 billion against a Sh15 billion target, while KMRC’s sustainability-linked bond received bids of about Sh9 billion against a Sh3 billion target.

The renewed activity follows years of weak corporate bond issuance after the collapse of Chase Bank and Imperial Bank, whose defaults badly damaged investor confidence in the asset class.

KCB says its latest initiative builds on its existing green-financing activities. The bank has disbursed more than Sh187 billion in green loans since 2022, including Sh48.8 billion last year to projects covering renewable energy, sustainable agriculture, green buildings, clean transportation, water management and climate-smart investments.

Knowledge tells you what to do. It does nothing about whether you actually do it. And the gap between the two is where almost everything happens’ –Nisha Shah.

On the Kenyan business scene, and in your organisation, does everything move in cycles, or in a straight line? Is there really a way to get ahead – to master evolution – on the business performance curve? What can one of the world’s most astute investors teach us about big picture patterns and cycles?

Ray Dalio built his roughly $20 billion fortune by founding and scaling Bridgewater Associates into the world’s largest hedge fund.

Performance varies significantly by year, generally in the range of a 11 to 12 percent annual return, with a record-breaking 33 percent gain in 2025. Starting the firm from his two-bedroom apartment in 1975, he grew it by pioneering systematic global macro investing, a unique corporate culture, and risk-managed strategies — paying attention to cycles.

Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order is Dalio’s 2021 book that examines history’s most turbulent economic and political periods to reveal why the times ahead will likely be radically different from those we’ve experienced in our lifetimes.

Dalio studied recent major empires, the Dutch, British, US and China -putting into perspective the ‘big cycle’ that has driven the successes and failures of all the world’s major countries throughout history.

Cycles define us

Everything in our universe moves in cycles. Planets orbit stars, stars orbit in galaxies, and time itself flows forward while repeating patterns like seasons and day-night cycles that define our reality. Moving from the universe and the macro of national economies, to the micro of the firm, it helps to notice cycles.

A S-curve is a useful way to think about the life cycle of a company, or development partner. You will notice your organisation rarely grows at a constant rate. It moves through phases where growth accelerates, but eventually slows as it approaches limits, and eventually declines, unless it creates a new source of growth. Just about every enterprise goes through four points on an S curve.

S Curve: experimentation

First stage is experimentation when product-market fit is uncertain and growth is slow. Second, often comes rapid growth where customers, revenues and capabilities compound. Maturity is the third phase with growth slowing and the market becoming saturated, with senior management assuming that past success will continue. Last, is decline, defending the old business, instead of reinventing it.

Key insight is that in stage 3 can look deceptively successful. Revenue may still be rising, profits may still be good and the company may have a strong brand. But the underlying growth engine is weakening.

Take Red Tree Design, a successful furniture manufacturer that develops an efficient factory, producing its established product range.

Initially, more production, with quantities of scale mean lower unit costs and higher profits. But eventually, with ‘more of same’ products flooding the market, it becomes saturated, competitors copy the product, customers’ tastes change, machinery becomes outdated and the company’s fixed-cost structure becomes a burden. In essence: the company’s capacity has grown faster than its ability to create new value.

Temptation is the ask: ‘How can we improve the existing business?’ But the smart manager, when approaching the top of its S-curve should instead ask: ‘What business should we create before the current business starts declining?’ Ideal is that you don’t wait until the old business is collapsing. You deliberately build the next S-curve while the existing S-curve is still healthy.

Instead of the old S-curve — innovation – growth – maturity then decline. Consider a new S-curve – experiment – discover – growth – then maturity

It’s a tough call, but the smart company begins investing in the second curve before the first one peaks. The astute aim isn’t simply to extend the life of the old curve. It is to transfer the organization from one curve to another.

Diagnosis — ask five questions

For some quick diagnosis, ask these five questions

1. Where are we on the current S-curve? Are we accelerating, plateauing or declining?

2. What is producing our growth? Is it new customers, existing customers, pricing, market expansion, or new products?

3. Are returns on additional investment falling? If doubling marketing, people, branches or equipment produces progressively less growth, one may be approaching the ceiling.

4. What assumptions made our current business successful? Are those assumptions now becoming liabilities? 5. Where is our next S-curve? What new customer, problem, technology, business model or market could create the next wave?

The counter-intuitive lesson is that the most dangerous moment for a company may not be when it is losing money. It may be when everything is going well, but growth is becoming increasingly difficult. Risk is that a company that waits for obvious decline has usually waited too long.

Don’t manage the company to maximize the current S-curve. Manage it to create the next one — the next evolution — before the current one peaks.

‘The reason people typically miss the big moments of evolution coming at them in life is because they experience only tiny pieces of what’s happening. We are like ants preoccupied with our jobs of carrying crumbs in our very brief lifetimes instead of having a broader perspective of the big-picture patterns and cycles, the important interrelated things driving them, where we are within the cycles, and what’s likely to transpire’ advises Dalio.

Over the years, I have built, deepened and deployed capital while working to strengthen confidence in our markets. That experience has given me a clear view of what mutual prosperity through trade and investment can unlock, and what will define the next chapter of US-East Africa relations.

The American narrative is shifting from aid to trade. The priority now is to ensure that this shift delivers mutual prosperity, not just market access. For the partnership to thrive, it must be built on mutual investment, durable commercial co-investment and local value creation.

East Africa was the continent’s fastest-growing region for the second consecutive year, according to the African Development Bank’s 2026 outlook. Regional growth accelerated from 4.3 percent in 2024 to 6.6 percent in 2025 and is projected to moderate to 5.9 percent this year before recovering to 6.4 percent in 2027.

That growth points to expanding consumer markets, rising demand for infrastructure and services, and businesses seeking capital and international partnerships. Investment will build productive capacity, create jobs and enable local companies to participate more fully in regional and global value chains.

The extension of Agoa offers relief by restoring duty-free access to the US market for African products. But the greater opportunity lies beyond that: long-term investment in manufacturing, infrastructure, logistics, technology and competitive regional value chains.

East Africa is increasingly a strategic growth market as global companies reassess supply chains and seek new regional platforms for expansion.

The region’s appeal also lies in its potential as a gateway to the African Continental Free Trade Area’s single market. It offers investors an opportunity to build export-driven growth while deepening East Africa’s role in continental commerce.

Seven sectors are likely to drive growth and investment: manufacturing, the digital economy, energy and infrastructure, agriculture, health, the creative economy, and critical minerals and supply chains. For East Africa, the issue is not simply where raw materials are sourced, but how supply chains are managed to capture more value and create jobs locally.

Governments must create conditions in which businesses can invest with confidence through predictable regulation, efficient institutions, competitive fiscal frameworks, transparent procurement, integrated markets and credible pipelines of investment-ready projects.

The United States, meanwhile, has a strategic interest in East Africa that is best matched by long-term commercial commitment.

The upcoming US-East Africa AmCham Business Summit, hosted by Am-Cham Kenya and its peers in Rwanda, Tanzania, Ethiopia and Uganda, provides a timely opportunity to accelerate capital flows and turn commitments into investable projects, commercial agreements and supplier partnerships.