Category: Business Daily

Family Bank will consider bringing in a strategic investor in future as it looks to diversify its shareholder base and help lower its founders’ effective stake to meet the regulatory cap of 25 percent.

The bank said in an information memorandum ahead of its listing that it was coming into the market with a relatively concentrated shareholder structure, which calls for efforts to broaden and free more units into its free-float pool.

The bank went public by introduction last Tuesday, listing 1.662 billion shares at a price of Sh18 each. Its disclosures showed that 59.5 percent of its issued shares were collectively held by associates of its founder, Titus Muya, the Kenya Tea Development Authority (KTDA) and an unnamed investor through a nominee account.

The KTDA is the single largest shareholder in the bank at 18.98 percent or 315.63 million shares. Mr Muya and his associates, who include family members and corporate entities Daykio Plantation Ltd, Kenya Orient Life Assurance and Kenya Orient Insurance, have a 35.67 percent holding equivalent to 593 million shares.

‘Family Bank has a relatively concentrated shareholding structure, which may limit the number of shares available for trading and allow significant shareholders to exert substantial influence over corporate decisions,’ said the bank in the information memorandum.

‘Over time, the bank will pursue strategies aimed at broadening and diversifying its shareholder base, including, but not limited to, the onboarding of a strategic investor, subject to regulatory approvals, prevailing market conditions, and the bank’s strategic objectives.’

Family Bank added that it will continue to uphold strong corporate governance standards, including independent board representation and protection of minority shareholder rights.

To diversify the shareholder base, the lender has the option of either issuing more shares to a strategic buyer or having key owners sell a portion of their units to the investor.

Family Bank’s anchor shareholders have also been exempted from the customary two-year lock-in period, giving them freedom to sell their shares on the open market and bring down their stakes, and realise some of the gains after listing.

The bank’s share closed the week at a price of Sh24.50 per unit on Friday, giving its holders a paper gain of 36 percent in the stock’s first week of trading on the NSE.

At the time of listing, Family Bank had 1.662 billion issued shares, drawn from a pool of 2.3 billion authorised shares.

Bringing in a strategic investor by allocating part of the unissued shares would allow the lender to raise additional core capital, but would have the effect of diluting all other shareholders. On the other hand, a sale of a stake by one of the existing owners would not dilute the other shareholders.

Last year, the bank did a private placement, which realised Sh8 billion from accepted applications of 552.05 million shares, although some of these units have yet to be issued as some of the investors await vetting by the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK).

By December 31, 2025, it had only issued 357.45 million shares to investors from whom it received Sh5.18 billion in the issue, leaving a balance of 194.59 million units valued at Sh2.82 billion to be allotted upon receiving the CBK nod.

The lender’s issued shares will, therefore, grow to 1.85 billion from the current 1.662 billion once all the shares are allotted.

The private placement helped the KTDA acquire an additional 103.4 million shares in the bank, while bringing in new shareholders such as Kenya Orient Life Assurance.

For Mr Muya and his associates, the need to comply with the law on ownership limits means that they will likely sell down their stake at some point in the future.

The CBK caps the ownership in a bank by a person and his associates at 25 percent to improve corporate governance and mitigate self-dealing.

The regulator has currently extended a concession to the Muya family to hold a combined stake of up to 31.93 percent. Given that the family’s actual ownership is 35.67 percent, they could seek offload a 3.74 percent stake to comply with the concession before later moving to full compliance.

Scaling down their ownership to 25 percent would mean selling up to 128.7 million shares, assuming the pending private placement shares are fully allotted.

Listed agricultural firms Williamson Tea Kenya and Kapchorua Tea Kenya will dip into their retained earnings to pay larger dividends that surpass their net incomes in the year ended March 2026.

Williamson Tea Kenya tripled its dividend payout to Sh525.3 million in the review period when it returned to profitability, riding on cost cutting.

It had paid a dividend of Sh175.1 million for the prior year. The company reported a net profit of Sh120.7 million in the review period compared to a net loss of Sh166.4 million the year before.

The higher profit saw the firm declare a first and final dividend of Sh15 per share, up from the previous Sh10 per share. The new dividend will be paid on a larger number of shares of 35.02 million units, amounting to the total payout of Sh525.3 million.

Williamson Tea doubled its issued shares in October last year after approving a bonus issue at a rate of one share for each held.

It previously paid a total dividend of Sh175.1 million when its shares count stood at 17.5 million units. This means that its dividend payout has tripled in absolute terms, thanks to more shares and a rise in payout per share.

The new dividend will be paid to shareholders who will be on record as of July 31, as the company taps part of its Sh4.4 billion retained earnings to make the distribution.

Williamson Tea’s share price rallied 13.1 percent to close at Sh150.25 on Friday. Kapchorua, an affiliate of Williamson Tea, also raised its total dividend payout by 140 percent to Sh469.4 million from the prior year’s Sh195.6 million.

The company declared a dividend of Sh30 per share up from Sh25 per share.

Just like Williamson Tea, Kapchorua had made a bonus issue of one share for each held, doubling its share count to 15.6 million shares from 7.8 million shares.

Kapchorua, whose net profit grew to Sh196.9 million from Sh181.1 million, will also use part of its retained earnings to pay the larger dividend. The company has retained earnings of Sh1.6 billion.

Kapchorua’s share price rose 7.5 percent to Sh321.25 on Friday.

Williamson Tea returned to profitability despite sales dropping by Sh708 million to Sh3.4 billion, underlining the impact of lower costs which cut its operating loss to Sh41.5 million from Sh392.2 million. Other items including higher valuation of its plantations and more income from financial investments lifted the firm to the Sh120.7 million net profit.

‘Crop production remains lower than last year due to strict quality controls on bought leaf combined with a dry spell experienced earlier in the year and continued lower than average rainfall,’ Williamson Tea said in a statement.

Kapchorua Tea, a sister company to Williamson Tea, also benefitted from lower costs as revenue declined to Sh1.6 billion from Sh2.2 billion.

Williamson Tea issued a mixed outlook for the tea sector, decrying a higher tax and regulatory burdens.

‘We hope that the opening of the Strait of Hormuz will reduce geopolitical pressures and assist the market but cost pressures and economic uncertainty are expected to continue,’ the company said.

‘The board is increasingly concerned by the continued growth in sector-specific taxes, levies and regulatory costs at both national and county levels which affect the industry’s long-term competitiveness and all stakeholders.’

The Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) is seeking to raise Sh80 billion from the sale of four bonds in July including a partial switch of a security maturing on November 9, 2026.

The government’s fiscal agent intends to collect Sh70 billion from the reopened sale of 10, 20 and 30-year bonds.

The 10-year paper, which has 5.8 years left to maturity, has a coupon or fixed interest rate of 13.49 percent.

The 20-year security has a 13.444 percent coupon and has 15.2 years to redemption. The 30-year bond, first sold in April this year, pays an annual interest at a fixed rate of 12.5 percent.

The CBK has been issuing discounts to investors in long-term bonds in a move that effectively raises their returns to reflect the jump in interest rates compared to when the securities were first auctioned.

The discounts are the result of investors bidding for higher returns in the wake of rising inflation following the rally in the price of commodities led by petroleum products.

When the CBK gives a discount, an investor pays less than the bond’s face (actual) value.

The interest paid is however calculated on the full value of the bond, resulting in the higher total return compared to a situation where an investor pays the full price.

When the 30-year paper was first sold, for instance, investors paid Sh91.0421 per Sh100, giving them a weighted average rate of 13.7554 percent against the coupon rate of 12.5 percent.

The sale of the three bonds closes on July 8. The CBK is also asking investors to switch at least Sh10 billion of their holdings in a five-year bond into a 20-year security.

The five-year paper, which has an outstanding value of Sh47.6 billion, is set to mature on November 9, 2026.

The paper has a coupon of 11.277 percent, making it more attractive to switch to the 20-year security which has a fixed interest rate of 12 percent.

The 20-year paper has 6.3 years left to maturity. The switch option will remain open until July 13, 2026.

The increasing use of switch auctions is aimed at reducing refinancing risk for the government, especially when a large amount is due for redemption in a rising interest rate environment.

Interest rates have crept up in the wake of the US and Israel war on Iran which has driven up inflation in most parts of the world, primarily through higher fuel prices and disruption of supply chains.

An end to the war is expected to ease the inflation pressure, ultimately lowering interest rates and borrowing costs for governments and other borrowers.

‘Concerns about inflation eased during the week due to the decline in global oil prices, as the United States and Iran reached a cease fire agreement, including re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz,’ the CBK said in its latest weekly bulletin.

Kenya lost an estimated Sh187.8 billion due to floods in just six months in 2023 and 2024, exposing the mounting financial burden of climate disasters that has prompted the government to overhaul financing of its emergency operations.

The Treasury has disclosed in a new document that it is adopting a new financing strategy to enhance the capacity of national and county governments to manage disaster risks.

“These impacts [earlier shocks] were further exacerbated by the severe floods in October-December 2023 (short rains) and in March-May 2024 (long rains), in March-May 2024 (long rains), which caused total damage and losses estimated at Sh187.82 billion, further straining public finances and slowing economic recovery,” the Treasury says in the new strategy document.

Under the strategy, the government is seeking to move away from emergency relief, donor appeals, and impromptu budget reallocations towards insurance and other pre-arranged disaster financing mechanisms in the coming years.

This marks a major change in official thinking, treating floods, droughts, and other disasters not merely as humanitarian emergencies, but as fiscal shocks capable of destabilising public finances and undermining economic growth.

“Kenya’s disaster risk profile is becoming increasingly complex and severe,” the Treasury says in the strategy document.

It cites climate change, environmental degradation, urbanisation, and population growth as factors increasing the country’s exposure to disaster losses.

The Treasury says that the devastating impact of recent floods pushed it to rethink its climate-related emergency funding.

The destruction followed one of the country’s worst drought cycles in decades and reinforced concerns within the government that disaster-related costs are becoming too large and too frequent to finance through emergency interventions alone.

Treasury Cabinet Secretary John Mbadi says the strategy is intended to ensure Kenya has predictable financing arrangements in place before disasters strike.

“The Government of Kenya recognises that disaster risks are increasing in frequency, intensity and complexity due to climate change, environmental degradation, urbanisation and other socio-economic pressures,” Mr Mbadi writes in the strategy.

He says the framework seeks to ensure resources are available “before disasters occur, enabling timely and effective action that protects lives, livelihoods, development gains and fiscal stability’.

Under the plan, the government is seeking to move away from a predominantly reactive approach toward a financing system covering prevention, preparedness, response, recovery, and reconstruction.

Unlike the current model, where the government often scrambles to raise money after disasters through emergency appeals, supplementary budgets, or reallocations from development programmes, the new approach seeks to arrange financing in advance.

‘By integrating disaster risk into every stage of the budget cycle and diversifying its portfolio of risk reduction, retention, and transfer instruments, the Government of Kenya is taking the necessary steps to safeguard its economic future,’ the Treasury says.

Treasury plans to expand contingency funds, contingent credit lines, and insurance instruments that can be triggered automatically when predefined disaster thresholds are met.

The aim is to release money quickly without waiting for fresh budget approvals, donor pledges, or emergency fundraising campaigns.

Under the proposed “risk layering” framework, more severe but less frequent events such as major floods, droughts, and epidemics would be covered through pre-arranged insurance and other risk-transfer mechanisms. Smaller and more frequent disasters will continue to be financed through budget reserves and emergency funds.

The Treasury says the objective is to provide “rapid and reliable liquidity after a disaster” while reducing dependence on ad hoc post-disaster financing.

The strategy amounts to an acknowledgement that Kenya’s traditional disaster financing model is under strain. The current disaster management has largely focused on responding to emergencies after they occur rather than on financing preparedness and risk reduction.

Industry leaders have raised similar concerns about Kenya’s response to climate-related risks.

Kenya Reinsurance Corporation managing director Hillary Wachinga in April warned of increased frequency and severity of flood-related claims in recent years, with insured and uninsured losses ranging from Sh10 billion to Sh30 billion annually.

“In Kenya, there is increased frequency and severity of flood claims in the recent past, with these losses oscillating between Sh10 billion to Sh30 billion annually, in terms of both insured and uninsured flood losses,” Mr Wachinga wrote in a media article.

He said the likelihood and impact of natural catastrophe risks are expected to continue increasing because of climate change, rapid urbanisation, deforestation, rising asset values, and human settlement in flood-prone areas.

“The likelihood and impact of NatCat [Natural Catastrophe] risks are expected to continue rising due to climate change, rapid urbanisation, increase in value of assets exposed to these risks, deforestation and human settlement in flood-prone zones as well as inadequate mitigation strategies,” Mr Wachinga wrote.

The warning came after the devastating 2024 floods left insurers facing more than Sh5 billion in claims, raising questions whether existing insurance pricing adequately reflects climate-related risks.

The industry is also bracing for another wave of claims following severe floods in March this year, which destroyed homes, businesses, and vehicles across the country and left 112 people dead, and thousands of others injured or displaced.

“There is also limited knowledge on NatCat insurance protection and low uptake of available insurance protection due to limited availability and affordability,” Mr Wachinga noted.

That gap between rising risks and low insurance penetration is increasingly becoming a national economic concern.

The Treasury’s strategy notes that while Kenya has established a range of disaster financing instruments over the past decade, protection remains heavily concentrated around drought.

Yet floods are emerging as one of the country’s fastest-growing sources of economic losses.

“Coverage remains uneven,” the report says, noting that financing mechanisms remain largely geared towards drought response.

Protection against floods, landslides, epidemics, fires, and other hazards remains limited despite growing exposure. To address the challenge, Kenya Re has proposed the creation of a national flood insurance pool.

The proposed structure would bring together government, , reinsurers, and capital market investors under a public-private partnership arrangement.

Under the proposal, Kenya Re would act as the residual reinsurer and administrator of the scheme.

Licensed insurers writing property risks would cede flood exposures to the pool in exchange for standardised reinsurance protection.

The proposal is designed to address a fundamental market challenge, where flood risks are often too concentrated and too volatile for individual insurers to absorb efficiently.

“Flood risk in Kenya is too concentrated and too volatile for individual insurers to price and fully retain,” Mr Wachinga wrote.

“A pooled structure spreads the risk, brings down the cost, and makes cover accessible, which will drive uptake.”

Kenya Re says the model could mirror Britain’s Flood Re scheme and Trkiye’s Catastrophe Insurance Pool, both established after governments concluded conventional insurance markets could not adequately absorb large-scale disaster risks.

The Treasury’s strategy similarly envisages a greater role for insurance markets, capital market instruments, and private-sector financing in protecting public finances from future shocks.

Treasury officials estimate that Kenya will require nearly $44 billion (about Sh5.7 trillion) between 2020 and 2030 to build resilience against climate-related risks. Available climate finance currently meets only a fraction of those requirements.

The proliferation of micro traders such as food vendors, kiosk owners, boda boda operators and second-hand clothes sellers has pushed adoption of M-Pesa’s Pochi la Biashara wallets ahead of business tills.

The product, which allows traders to receive and separate business funds from personal cash, has surpassed business tills under Lipa na M-Pesa by addressing key merchant pain points such as payment reversals.

Disclosures by Safaricom Plc, the owner and operator of the M-Pesa mobile money platform, show the number of merchants using Pochi has doubled that of business tills.

The number of merchants using Pochi reached 2.1 million in the financial year ended March 2026, up from 1.1 million a year earlier.

In contrast, merchants using Lipa na M-Pesa business tills grew more slowly to one million from 700,000 over the same period.

Three years ago, Pochi had fewer than half as many merchants as business tills, with 292,600 users compared with 606,700 tills.

The higher number of Pochi users also reflects the larger population of micro businesses in the economy compared with small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), which are more likely to use business tills.

Micro appeal

Safaricom launched Pochi la Biashara in 2020 as part of its strategy to drive the adoption of digital financial services among micro-entrepreneurs by allowing them to keep business earnings separate from personal funds in a wallet linked to their M-Pesa account.

‘The product was designed to address key pain points for merchants identified through Safaricom’s own customer feedback, such as mixing personal and business funds and frustrations around customer payment reversals,’ the GSM Association (GSMA) said in a report assessing the impact of the product on entrepreneurs.

Pochi’s key features include dual wallets, Lipa na Pochi, which allows merchants to pay directly using the wallet, airtime sales and direct agent withdrawals.

The product does not allow payment reversals, protecting merchants from customers reversing completed transactions.

Read: Reversal fears drive uptake of Pochi La Biashara service

Merchants also receive mini-statements, access to working capital linked to business activity through Taasi loans, and savings and investment options via the Ziidi Trader platform and the Ziidi Money Market Fund (MMF).

Signing up is straightforward because merchants do not require a new SIM card or till number.

In contrast, merchants using Lipa na M-Pesa business tills must obtain a dedicated till SIM card that cannot be used for other transactions.

Revenue gap

Despite having more merchants on Pochi, Safaricom generates more revenue from business tills, signalling higher average earnings from the Lipa na M-Pesa product.

Revenue from business tills stood at Sh9.3 billion in the 12 months to March 2026, compared with Sh4 billion from Pochi.

Pochi revenue, however, grew at a faster pace, rising 86 percent from Sh2.2 billion in the previous year. Revenue from business tills increased 21.7 percent from Sh7.6 billion over the same period.

Safaricom considers Pochi an increasingly important product within its mobile money business despite its smaller revenue base.

‘Pochi la Biashara is becoming an increasingly important product in Safaricom’s M-Pesa suite and has generated high-margin revenue streams for Safaricom, with ongoing feature upgrades that give a strong competitive edge,’ the GSMA report adds.

Rwanda will shift to a government-to-government (G-to-G) fuel importation deal from August this year, signalling reduced business for Kenyan oil marketers who are still smarting from the loss of the Ugandan market.

Industry executives told the Business Daily that the government of Rwanda has already informed the local players of the changes.

‘They have already written to the oil marketers of their shift to a G-to-G model, which is starting in August this year,’ an industry executive said on Friday.

Sources revealed that OQ Trading, which is the international energy and commodity trading arm of the Sultanate of Oman, will supply Rwanda with fuel under the G-to-G arrangement.

Rwanda’s shift to a G-to-G importation of fuel will close yet another regional market for Kenyan oil firms that have for decades supplied fuel to the tiny East African nation, which is landlocked.

Rwanda largely imports its fuel through Dar es Salaam, with about 30 percent coming through Kenyan oil marketers.

Kenyan oil dealers are still reeling from the loss of the Ugandan transit market, barely two years after the Yoweri Museveni administration shifted to a G-to-G deal.

Uganda had cited expensive fuel as a key reason behind its decision to roll out its G-to-G deal with Vitol Bahrain in May 2023. The Uganda National Oil Company is handling the imports, cutting out the market that had been dominated by Kenyan oil marketers.

Kenya pioneered the G-to-G arrangement in the region with its April 2023 deal with Saudi Aramco, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, and Emirates National Oil Company. The three firms supply fuel on a credit period of 180 days to ease dollar demand and prop up the shilling.

Rwanda’s partner, OQ Trading, is wholly owned by the Omani government. The energy investment company was established in 2006 and is headquartered in Muscat, the capital of Oman. Industry executives reckon that Rwanda has signalled its preference to use the port of Mombasa and Kenya Pipeline Company (KPC)’s network in its G-to-G deal.

Top Rwandan energy officials are expected in Nairobi this week to meet KPC officials.

Rwanda’s reasons for shifting to the G-to-G model remain undisclosed. But like many other countries buying fuel in the spot markets, it was recently exposed due to the US-Israel war that disrupted supplies globally.

Rwanda currently has the costliest fuel in the East Africa region, with a litre of petrol going for $2 compared to $1.704 in Uganda and $1.643 in Kenya.

A litre of diesel is currently going for $1.992 in Kigali, compared to $1.712 in Nairobi and $1.665 in Kampala.

The costly fuel has mainly been blamed on the US-Israel war on Iran, which disrupted supplies, leading to sky-high prices of refined fuel and steep freight charges due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Kenyan oil marketers in the transit market will now be left with the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Burundi, and South Sudan markets. This will, in turn, hurt them, given that a number of these firms primarily play in the transit petroleum market.

Rwanda will now seek allocation in the KPC’s system to store and transport its fuel to the depots from where it will be trucked to Kigali and other parts of the country.

It remains unclear whether Rwanda has already finalised the user agreement with KPC. The agreement will cover critical areas such as ullage, line fill, and user tariffs.

Line fill is the minimum volume of fuel that is needed to occupy the physical space of a pipeline for its efficient flow, while ullage represents the available or required space needed to safely accommodate product expansion, manage batch transfers, or perform line clearing operations without causing overflow.

An oil marketer must meet the ullage and line fill requirements to store and move its product along the KPC system from the import handling tanks at the port of Mombasa to the end stations, from where it is sold to consumers. KPC regulates ullage on its system to curb hoarding and ease congestion.

The marketers negotiate for ullage and line fill with KPC, based on the volumes available and the import quotas. The agreed rates must be approved by the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (Epra).

Epra also gazettes the user tariffs for storing fuel and transporting it along KPC’s systems. The charges cover all oil marketers licensed in Kenya. Kenya currently charges discounted rates on transit fuel, a decision that was made years ago to boost the attractiveness of the port of Mombasa and ward off competition from the port of Dar es Salaam.

Rwanda will now join Uganda in cutting reliance on Kenyan oil marketers for their fuel supplies, moves that are widely seen as efforts by the respective governments to have a greater say in the pump prices.

Rwanda recently formed a State-backed Rwanda National Petroleum Corporation (RNPC) as the State-backed entity responsible for national fuel imports, setting the stage for President Paul Kagame’s administration to start the G-to-G fuel importation deal.

Rwanda bought a stake of less than one percent in KPC in March this year. The acquisition was part of the initial public offering (IPO), where the Kenyan government relinquished its 65 percent stake to private investors and neighbouring countries.

Uganda bought a stake of 20.1 percent in KPC, earning it two board seats and veto over the hiring and firing of the company’s CEO.

As governments in Africa race to expand infrastructure, increase food production and attract investment, a silent crisis continues to undermine these ambitions: land degradation.

Every year, millions of hectares of productive land are lost to soil erosion, deforestation, overgrazing, unsustainable farming practices and poorly planned urban expansion.

The result is declining agricultural productivity, increased food insecurity, biodiversity loss and heightened vulnerability to climate shocks.

Recognising this challenge, the global community adopted the concept of Land Degradation Neutrality (LDN) under Sustainable Development Goal 15.3.

The idea is simple yet transformative: the amount and quality of healthy, productive land should remain stable or increase over time. In practical terms, any degradation caused by development activities should be balanced by restoring an equivalent area of degraded land.

More than 130 countries, including Kenya, have voluntarily committed to achieving LDN by 2030.

The framework follows a straightforward hierarchy: avoid degradation where possible, reduce degradation where it occurs and restore degraded landscapes where damage has already been done.

What makes LDN particularly powerful is its ability to connect multiple development priorities under a single framework. Healthy land supports food production, regulates water systems, stores carbon, conserves biodiversity and sustains rural livelihoods.

Investing in land restoration is, therefore, not merely an environmental intervention but an economic necessity.

Progress towards LDN is measured using three globally recognised indicators: land cover change, land productivity and soil organic carbon. Together, these metrics provide a clear picture of whether landscapes are becoming healthier or more degraded over time.

For Kenya and many other African countries, achieving LDN will require moving beyond tree planting campaigns to embrace integrated landscape management. Sustainable agriculture, agroforestry, community-based forest management and responsible grazing practices must become central pillars of national development strategies.

The private sector also has a critical role to play. Financial institutions, agribusinesses and investors increasingly recognise that degraded landscapes present significant business risks. Supporting restoration initiatives can strengthen supply chains, improve resilience and unlock emerging opportunities in carbon markets and ecosystem services.

Importantly, LDN offers a practical framework for balancing development and conservation. Rather than viewing environmental protection as an obstacle to economic growth, it demonstrates that long-term prosperity depends on maintaining the natural capital upon which economies are built.

The future of Africa’s economies depend on the health of the land beneath our feet.

As the effects of climate change intensify across Africa’s drylands, forests and agricultural regions, restoring degraded land is no longer optional. It is essential.

The road to 2030 is rapidly shortening. If African countries are to achieve their climate, biodiversity and food security goals, land degradation neutrality must move from being an international commitment on paper to a guiding principle for development planning and investment decisions.

This week, the public witnessed a rare display of humility as the usually combative Cabinet Secretary (CS) Aden Duale stood before the High Court and apologised for defying a court order.

Mr Duale, arguably one of President William Ruto’s closest political allies, could have chosen to persist in his defiance. After all, it is the Executive, led by President Ruto, that wields the instruments of State power. But the CS appeared to recognise a timeless truth: while political power is transient, the rule of law is enduring.

For a man whose political career has largely been defined by unwavering loyalty to the President and an unrelenting defence of government policy, the apology marked an extraordinary moment.

It was the first time in years that one of Dr Ruto’s most outspoken lieutenants appeared visibly subdued, acknowledging the authority of a court that had only a day earlier found him in contempt.

Appearing before Justice Patricia Nyaundi, Mr Duale insisted he had never intended to disobey the Judiciary.

He said he had understood the conservatory orders issued by the court to have suspended only the proposed collaboration between Kenya and the United States over the establishment of an Ebola quarantine and isolation facility at a military installation in Nanyuki, not the country’s independent preparedness measures.

“I was driven by a zealous attempt to ensure that public health is always assured,” he told the court.

The apology spared him a possible jail term after petitioners led by the Katiba Institute and the Law Society of Kenya sought to have him committed to prison for contempt. Justice Nyaundi accepted his apology but warned against any future non-compliance.

For many Kenyans, it was an unfamiliar image of one of the country’s toughest political operators. Yet those who have followed Mr Duale’s rise know resilience has been the defining thread running through his public life. It is a resilience that has enabled him to survive political purges, Cabinet reshuffles and changing political tides. Few politicians embody loyalty to the President like Mr Duale.

Since Dr Ruto assumed office in September 2022, the Garissa politician has survived every Cabinet reshuffle. While colleagues have been reassigned or dropped, Mr Duale has remained a constant, moving from Defence to Environment and now Health-an unusual trajectory that reflects the confidence the President has in him. That trust was forged long before the pair ascended to the country’s highest offices.

Mr Duale and Dr Ruto first crossed paths politically in the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), where both emerged as influential figures during the party’s rise in 2007. When Dr Ruto later fell out with ODM leader Raila Odinga following the formation of the Grand Coalition Government, Mr Duale gravitated towards him, becoming one of his earliest and most dependable allies.

He would remain by Dr Ruto’s side through every political reincarnation-from the United Republican Party (URP) to Jubilee and eventually the United Democratic Alliance (UDA)-earning a reputation as one of the President’s most steadfast loyalists. That loyalty came at a heavy political price.

In July 2020, during the bitter fallout between President Uhuru Kenyatta and his then deputy Ruto, Mr Duale became one of the highest-profile casualties of the purge targeting MPs aligned to the Deputy President. He was removed as Majority Leader after nearly eight years as the government’s chief legislative strategist.

Looking back on that episode in his memoir For the Record, Mr Duale described the removal as being fuelled by “betrayal, malice and a senseless witch-hunt”. His only mistake, he wrote, was choosing to stand “on the side of truth and transparency” by remaining loyal to the man who would later become President.

In hindsight, the setback proved temporary. When Dr Ruto won the presidency in 2022, Mr Duale was among the first beneficiaries, joining the inaugural Cabinet and remaining one of its few constants despite successive reshuffles. Long before poli tics, however, Mr Duale was a classroom teacher.

Armed with a Bachelor of Education degree from Moi University, he began his professional life teaching before venturing into business and later politics. He subsequently earned a Master of Business Administration from Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology, combining an educator’s discipline with business acumen that would later shape his political career.

He was first elected Dujis Constituency MP in 2007. He later served as Assistant Minister for Livestock in the Grand Coalition Government before becoming Kenya’s first Majority Leader under the 2010 Constitution, a position he held from 2013 until his removal in 2020.

Whether serving as Defence, Environment or Health CS, Mr Duale has repeatedly volunteered to defend some of the administration’s most controversial policies. None has generated more debate than the rollout of the Social Health Authority (SHA), one of President Ruto’s flagship reforms intended to replace the National Health Insurance Fund (NHIF).

As hospitals complained of delayed reimbursements and patients criticised system failures, Mr Duale emerged as the government’s chief defender of the reforms. He insisted the challenges were temporary and accused critics of spreading misinformation about a programme he argued would deliver universal health coverage. That defence occasionally brought him into confrontation with the media.

In one widely publicised exchange, Mr Duale criticised Nation Media Group’s reporting on SHA, accusing the newspaper of focusing on isolated failures while ignoring what he described as the programme’s successes.

He argued that persistent negative reporting risked undermining public confidence in reforms that were still being implemented. His willingness to confront critics extends beyond the media.

Earlier this year, he engaged in a heated exchange with Kitutu Chache South MP Anthony Kibagendi during a parliamentary committee session after the legislator questioned procurement matters in the Health ministry.

Mr Duale accused the MP of attempting to extort suppliers linked to the ministry-an allegation that escalated an already tense session and reinforced his reputation as a politician who rarely retreats from confrontation.

Friends describe him as forthright. Critics consider him abrasive. Either way, Mr Duale has built a reputation as one of Kenya’s most uncompromising political communicators, rarely tempering his words for political convenience.

Beyond his role as one of President Ruto’s most dependable lieutenants, Mr Duale has also positioned himself as one of the country’s most prominent voices on issues affecting the Somali community.

Over the years, he has consistently spoken against the ethnic profiling of Kenyan Somalis during security operations, arguing that the actions of terrorists should never be used to stigmatise an entire community. Following major terrorist attacks, when calls for sweeping crackdowns intensified, Mr Duale repeatedly urged security agencies to distinguish criminals from law-abiding Kenyan Somalis.

Away from the political theatre, Mr Duale presents a markedly different image. The father of five is known among friends as deeply religious, fiercely loyal and unusually accessible despite occupying some of the country’s most powerful offices. Family, he has often said, remains his anchor amid the turbulence of politics.

For nearly two decades, Duale has fought political battles with the confidence of a man convinced that forceful arguments and unwavering loyalty ultimately prevail.

Yet as he stood before the High Court this week, apologising for disobeying a court order, even one of Kenya’s most battle-hardened politicians appeared to acknowledge a lesson that transcends politics.

In the world, according to Philip Karanja, cars and golf are not just the way to a man’s heart but to his mind too – and, potentially, his bank account. He is, after all, the money guy; the Finance Director, Samsung Electronics East Africa.

Money gets you anything, which is why it is everything. He knows this to be true. But a raise at work won’t raise your children; it makes it easier, but not easy.

“I am a friend to my children, but not their best friend,” he says. This is important, knowing when to put an arm on their shoulder, or when they need a firm hand, especially in the tumultuous teenage years. In his Parenting 101, he is the chairman of his little chaebol, mediating disputes, keeping his eye on trouble spots, putting down rebellions from within.

This habit has earned him a reputation for aloofness, to which he pleads guilty with an explanation. “It’s just the way I carry myself,” he says. “I’m actually the opposite.” It’s true. Ask around, and they’ll tell you that the coolest thing about the money guy is his warmth.

The charge is that accountants are boring. Are you swimming with that current?

An accountant is a cost-conscious person, and a captain of an industry, several of them. So, I think that thinking has changed a lot. And I find the accountants of today are a lot more fun to be around.

What’s something cool about you?

I’m easy to get along with. I am also pretty adaptable to situations, and I am not straightjacketed in terms of expectations.

Are you an easy father too?

Fatherhood is the loveliest thing, actually. My purpose is to mold my children into something much better than myself.

How are you breaking fatherhood rules in your own life?

I have two sons. One of them is about to be a teen, the other one is 11. Fatherhood, for me, is about guidance. Just being present for the children. And of course, be a friend sometimes.

How are you being a different father than your dad?

The fathers of my time were more of kiboko fathers. Disciplinarians. I am also strict, but we have more conversations rather than just caning them. I try to be a model rather than just teach something I’m not practising.

What do you miss about your own childhood?

A lot. The playing, the ease, not thinking about too many issues, and just living in the moment.

How are you remaining childlike in your life now?

Play for me is still very important. I’m active in the gym, and I have taken up golfing. I also try to be easy on myself.

Is golf the final coronation to ‘becoming CEO’?

It should actually be the first step [chuckles]. Sometimes I feel I should have started earlier. It’s a thing when you’re thinking about a retirement plan or when you’re not able to move as much, and basketball is no longer feasible. There is a lot of walking in golf and hitting the balls. Needless to say, it’s a very good area for networking.

What can you tell me about golf that Tiger Woods can’t?

Tiger Woods started playing golf at the age of two or three. I think he would not understand my challenges of picking up golf when I’m much older and not being able to hit a par, like him.

What is it with executives and golf?

Perhaps the way it was introduced, especially in Kenya, it was largely a game for the elite. That thinking is changing slowly. That said, it is expensive to play. The clubs are few, which means membership is expensive.

What’s the most boring part of playing golf?

Looking for other people’s balls when they hit them far away. Actually, one of the things golf teaches you is being very patient with everyone else making mistakes. The target is never the competitor. The target is always yourself. The game you played yesterday is not the same game you’ll play today. So most of the time, you’re playing to defeat yourself, to do better than yesterday.

Have you introduced your sons to golf?

Oh yes, my second-born. We used to do football, but that was not his thing.

And the firstborn?

He has a few challenges with movement. He’s differently abled.

If you can talk about it, how is that like for you – how different is the parenting?

I wouldn’t say it’s much different, but it is challenging because the milestones and progress are not the same as those of other children. And in our country, we are not very prepared for that kind of setup.

Which part of fatherhood has forced you to grow up the most?

Haha! I would say when the children reached five to seven years. They wanted to learn a lot more, so that phase required a lot more of my presence. When they started asking the whys, the whats, and being rebellious, I realised I needed to be more present. And as boys grow up, beyond a certain age, they start challenging the authority of their mum, and that forces the fathers to step up. I didn’t realise something like a voice makes a big difference.

So you’re bringing the thunder?

[chuckles] Oh, yes. Very necessary. I don’t think they challenge the fathers up to about age 15, or sometimes they become reclusive and quiet as teens.

What habit has best served you in your life?

Consistency. Having good virtues and integrity is also very important, especially in my job.

What will I find when I pop open the hood?

I’m a different person to myself at different times [chuckles]. Sometimes I’m an easy-go guy who just wants to experiment. Sometimes I want to leave a legacy and be proud of myself. It’s different acts at different times.

When was the last time you did something for the first time?

In 2018, when I started going to the gym seriously. I just felt very unhealthy and unfit. Going up the stairs was a bit of a problem. At that time, I thought I could do the evening sessions, then I realised I couldn’t and had to go in the morning.

What is your regimen like at the gym?

I’ll wake up at 5am, and I am in the gym by about 6am, and done by 8am, and then to the office.

Anything you’ve learned about yourself from lifting weights?

I’ve learned that there are limits to what I think I can do, a lot of patience needed to grow, and a lot of consistency required to develop. I’ve also learned that it’s a lifestyle rather than an event.

What are you thinking about when you’re in the gym?

I can’t understand anybody who goes to the gym with earphones. I find them strange people [chuckles]. I’m more of a group guy in the gym. I want the group activities. I’m not interested in individual things.

Why not?

They don’t bring out the best in me. Find me where the people are.

Is golf the final coronation to ‘becoming CEO’?

It should actually be the first step [chuckles]. Sometimes I feel I should have started earlier. It’s a thing when you’re thinking about a retirement plan or when you’re not able to move as much, and basketball is no longer feasible. There is a lot of walking in golf and hitting the balls. Needless to say, it’s a very good area for networking.

What can you tell me about golf that Tiger Woods can’t?

Tiger Woods started playing golf at the age of two or three. I think he would not understand my challenges of picking up golf when I’m much older and not being able to hit a par, like him.

What is it with executives and golf?

Perhaps the way it was introduced, especially in Kenya, it was largely a game for the elite. That thinking is changing slowly. That said, it is expensive to play. The clubs are few, which means membership is expensive.

What’s the most boring part of playing golf?

Looking for other people’s balls when they hit them far away. Actually, one of the things golf teaches you is being very patient with everyone else making mistakes. The target is never the competitor. The target is always yourself. The game you played yesterday is not the same game you’ll play today. So most of the time, you’re playing to defeat yourself, to do better than yesterday.

Have you introduced your sons to golf?

Oh yes, my second-born. We used to do football, but that was not his thing.

And the firstborn?

He has a few challenges with movement. He’s differently abled.

If you can talk about it, how is that like for you – how different is the parenting?

I wouldn’t say it’s much different, but it is challenging because the milestones and progress are not the same as those of other children. And in our country, we are not very prepared for that kind of setup.

Which part of fatherhood has forced you to grow up the most?

Haha! I would say when the children reached five to seven years. They wanted to learn a lot more, so that phase required a lot more of my presence. When they started asking the whys, the whats, and being rebellious, I realised I needed to be more present. And as boys grow up, beyond a certain age, they start challenging the authority of their mum, and that forces the fathers to step up. I didn’t realise something like a voice makes a big difference.

So you’re bringing the thunder?

[chuckles] Oh, yes. Very necessary. I don’t think they challenge the fathers up to about age 15, or sometimes they become reclusive and quiet as teens.

What habit has best served you in your life?

Consistency. Having good virtues and integrity is also very important, especially in my job.

What will I find when I pop open the hood?

I’m a different person to myself at different times [chuckles]. Sometimes I’m an easy-go guy who just wants to experiment. Sometimes I want to leave a legacy and be proud of myself. It’s different acts at different times.

When was the last time you did something for the first time?

In 2018, when I started going to the gym seriously. I just felt very unhealthy and unfit. Going up the stairs was a bit of a problem. At that time, I thought I could do the evening sessions, then I realised I couldn’t and had to go in the morning.

What is your regimen like at the gym?

I’ll wake up at 5am, and I am in the gym by about 6am, and done by 8am, and then to the office.

Anything you’ve learned about yourself from lifting weights?

I’ve learned that there are limits to what I think I can do, a lot of patience needed to grow, and a lot of consistency required to develop. I’ve also learned that it’s a lifestyle rather than an event.

What are you thinking about when you’re in the gym?

I can’t understand anybody who goes to the gym with earphones. I find them strange people [chuckles]. I’m more of a group guy in the gym. I want the group activities. I’m not interested in individual things.

Why not?

They don’t bring out the best in me. Find me where the people are.

You mentioned something about your wife – how has your interpretation of the word husband changed over the years?

[chuckles] My paternal auntie told me something very interesting when I was getting married. She said I have to be a friend to my wife, but also I have to be her husband. Many times, a husband has to be a leader. You have to make decisions and collaborate. My definition has changed over time. Friend, husband, father, mentor, it keeps evolving.

What does your wife get to brag about you?

She thinks I’m very patient, even in situations I shouldn’t be. I work best under pressure. She also thinks I’m very particular about details.

How has she influenced how you lead?

I actually consult her on many things. She’s my sponge. I don’t necessarily have to tell her the specifics, but there are many things I’ve run through her so that then she can give me perspective. She certainly has intuition. I’m more of a facts guy. She’s changed a lot of things and approaches that I have had to undertake at different times.

Speaking of, what does your buried life look like?

Growing up, I wanted to be an accountant. My father was a teacher, but I knew I didn’t like being a teacher. Cashiers used to impress me at the bank. Accountants, at that time, looked like they had it [chuckles]. So I wanted to be one.

Have you watched the movie [Accountant]? Is it how accountants really are?

Yes. Some portions are realistic-like having the whole picture of what is going on. Initially, when you become an accountant, you think it’s only a small part of accounting for other people. Then you realise it’s the whole perspective of understanding what money does and what decisions contribute to the value creation process.

What’s a lesson about money that has remained true for you over the years?

Cash is king. Successful companies are not always huge. Sometimes they have huge profits, but most of the time it’s because they have good cash flows that allow them to do things more flexibly. And I think that applies to companies as it does to individuals.

What’s a misconception people have about you?

That I am stuck up. I look serious to most people, so they think I’m not easy to approach. That I’m also very stubborn and sticky. It’s the opposite.

What matters less to you now?

Corporate noise.

What question are you hoping to answer with your life?

Did I create something long-lasting, a legacy for others to grow on or build? Did everybody who came next to me get a feeling that they got more for themselves and a legacy to build on?

Is it true that the higher you climb, the lonelier it becomes?

Yes. There is a level of consciousness one needs to have to expand their network. In the last five years, I have been very conscious that at some level, it gets very lonely, so you need to have the right people whom you can speak to, or the kind of expertise you don’t have, access to it through others. It is a conscious decision.

How are you watering your friendships?

Presence. Friendship is maintained by all the small things we do, like calling them, finding out what is happening in their lives, their children’s lives, and being there for them when they need you.

If you could know the truth to one question, what would you ask?

How much more time do I have to live? [chuckles]

Why is that important?

It’s nice to draw a timeline because there are many things I have yet to achieve. I want to map them out.

What’s on your bucket list?

Farming, that is my retirement plan, and I’d be growing fruits. At some point, I want to start my own consultancy because when you retire, you still have a lot to give.

Give us some good advice.

[chuckles] In the long run, time wins. The only thing that matters is what you do every day, at the time that it matters.

Kenya faces renewed debt-servicing pressure as the fallout from the Iran-Israel conflict threatens to keep borrowing costs elevated for longer, adding strain to a budget weighed down by rising interest payments.

A new forecast by an independent economic consultancy, Oxford Economics, warns that even if recent diplomatic efforts between the US and Iran lead to a lasting truce, the financial fallout from the conflict has already altered inflation and interest-rate expectations across Africa.

The consultancy says Kenya is among countries where expectations of lower interest rates have given way to forecasts of possible rate increases as policymakers grapple with the inflationary effects of higher fuel and food prices.

The report warns that higher borrowing costs will feed into debt-servicing expenses in countries already struggling to contain the growing burden of interest repayments.

‘More concerningly, in other countries, including South Africa and Kenya, monetary policy has shifted direction: expectations of interest rate cuts have given way to forecasts of policy rate hikes,’ analysts at Oxford Economics wrote in a report on Friday.

‘This will feed into higher borrowing costs in two countries that are already struggling to arrest the rise in debt servicing costs.’

The warning comes as Kenya plans to borrow nearly Sh1.15 trillion in the financial year starting July to finance a deficit in the Sh4.82 trillion budget. The Treasury plans to raise Sh1.03 trillion from the domestic market and another Sh116.2 billion through external loans, exposing the country to both local and global borrowing conditions.

Treasury Cabinet Secretary John Mbadi has signalled concern over the potential fiscal fallout from the conflict.

‘This war [in Iran] is very difficult to assess now. And if the war is going to continue, then we may be forced to re-assess our expenditure to align it to realities and revenue collections,’ Mr Mbadi said earlier this month.

The Treasury is under pressure from a growing debt bill that has become one of the largest spending items in government expenditure.

‘If you look at the budget, you’ll realise that the one line that has the highest increase is the CFS [Consolidated Fund Services],’ Mr Mbadi said. ‘This is basically debt repayments and pension. These are numbers that you cannot change because if debts become payable, you will have to pay them.’

Interest payments are projected to consume Sh1.25 trillion in the fiscal year beginning July, up from Sh1.13 trillion in the year ending June 30. The new interest bill comprises Sh986.7 billion in domestic obligations and Sh267.5 billion in foreign debt repayments, compared with Sh883.76 billion and Sh242.76 billion, respectively, in the current fiscal year.

Oxford Economics says the conflict-driven surge in oil prices has complicated efforts to tame inflation, raising the likelihood that borrowing costs will remain higher than previously anticipated.

On June 9, the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) retained its benchmark lending rate at 8.75 percent for a second consecutive meeting, citing uncertainty linked to the Iran conflict. Inflation rose to 6.7 percent in May, the highest level since January 2024, when it stood at 6.9 percent, edging closer to the upper limit of the government’s 2.5-7.5 percent target range.

‘Having considered these developments, including the potentially transitory nature of the conflict, the committee concluded that the current monetary policy stance, with the Central Bank Rate unchanged at 8.75 percent, remains appropriate,’ the CBK said.

Oxford Economics argues that the conflict has effectively reversed expectations of monetary easing in some African economies, including Kenya, as policymakers seek to prevent higher fuel costs from fuelling broader inflation pressures.

The consultancy also warns that external borrowing may become more expensive as the US Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates higher for longer.

‘Furthermore, the US Fed is now also expected to keep its policy rate higher for longer, which will put upward pressure on external borrowing costs,’ the report said.

The report adds that governments will also face pressure from weaker revenue growth and measures designed to shield households from rising fuel costs, making fiscal consolidation more difficult.