Category: Business Day

The naira’s real effective exchange rate is now arguably the most competitive in two decades, a development hailed as a major milestone for Nigeria’s economic policy.

Yemi Kale, group chief economist and managing director of Afreximbank, made this observation in his keynote address titled ‘Reform and Resilience: Strengthening Nigeria’s Economic Foundations’ at The Platform Nigeria event in Lagos.

Kale explained that, in practical terms, Nigeria is no longer compelled to sell scarce foreign exchange at subsidised rates. Exporters have also been freed from the penalties of an overvalued currency, creating a healthier environment for trade and investment.

The introduction of a more flexible exchange rate regime acts as a natural shock absorber, allowing the currency to adjust gradually to fluctuations in oil prices or global economic conditions, rather than triggering sudden crises in the balance of payments.

Investors have responded positively to these reforms, as reflected in rising foreign exchange reserves, which climbed from approximately $32.9 billion at the end of 2023 to over $38.8 billion by mid-October 2024. By mid-2025, verified foreign exchange backlogs had largely been cleared, and reserves had surpassed $42 billion, a three-year high, signaling renewed confidence in Nigeria’s economic outlook.

For businesses, the new foreign exchange system has been transformative. Companies no longer waste energy lobbying for scarce official foreign exchange allocations and can instead focus on improving productivity and competitiveness.

A more competitive naira has made Nigerian products more affordable on the international market, stimulated non-oil exports, discouraged wasteful imports, and encouraged local production.

Non-oil exporters and domestic companies reliant on imported inputs have reported stronger earnings, while Nigeria’s trade balance is reportedly improving.

The naira’s performance on the foreign exchange markets underscores these positive trends. On Thursday, October 2, 2025, the currency converged at N1,455 per dollar in both the official foreign exchange market and the parallel (black) market, effectively closing the long-standing exchange rate gap.

At the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM), the naira appreciated by 1.4 percent, with the dollar quoted at N1,455.23, up from N1,475.34 at the end of September. Similarly, in the parallel market, the naira strengthened by 2.7 percent to close at N1,455, up from N1,495 just two days earlier.

Bala Moh’d Bello, a member of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), attributed the naira’s relative stability to tighter liquidity conditions, growing investor confidence, and recent reforms in foreign exchange management.

He noted that speculative activities in the foreign exchange market have declined significantly, enhancing transparency and supporting market-based price discovery. Bello added that this stability is expected to persist in the medium term, supported by rising reserves, which stood at $40.11 billion as of July 18, 2025, enough to cover about 9.5 months of imports.

Kale further emphasised that these reforms have strengthened macroeconomic management by providing the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) with clearer policy signals through a unified, more market-reflective, and rules-based exchange rate system. This shift has enhanced the effectiveness and credibility of monetary policy, laying firmer foundations for sustainable growth.

‘Reforms are not merely policy adjustments but deliberate, strategic decisions aimed at stabilizing the present and securing a prosperous future,’ Kale said. ‘They require patience, persistence, disciplined execution, and the capacity to follow through.’

However, these reforms have come with a painful short-term cost that was not sufficiently cushioned. Inflation, which had already accelerated after the removal of petrol subsidies, surged further following the naira float, as imported goods, central to family consumption and critical inputs for manufacturers became more expensive.

This experience is not unique to Nigeria. When Egypt floated its pound in 2016, inflation quickly exceeded 30 percent within months. However, Egypt managed to restore investor confidence and stimulate growth by allowing the currency to reach market-clearing levels, coupled with efficient and targeted social safety nets that cushioned vulnerable households from the initial cost shocks.

Unlike Nigeria, Egypt expanded food subsidy cards and rolled out cash allowances to low-income families, providing a valuable lesson: stabilising the currency market is fundamental to long-term economic health, even if it causes short-term price turbulence.

Strengthening Nigeria’s social protection systems will be critical to ensuring the long-term benefits of reform are more widely and equitably shared, he said.

Early evidence indicates that despite the initial hardships, Nigeria’s foreign exchange reforms are opening doors to a more diversified and export-oriented economy.

The transparent foreign exchange regime has attracted a surge of foreign portfolio inflows (FPIs), which help stabilise the naira in the short term.

Yet, foreign direct investment (FDI), essential for job creation and industrial capacity will take longer to rebound as investors continue to test the staying power of reforms, especially given Nigeria’s history of policy reversals.

Monetary policy adds another layer of complexity. The surge in portfolio inflows has been supported by the CBN’s decision to maintain policy rates above 20 percent. While this approach supports short-term liquidity and reserve accumulation, it also discourages long-term FDI.

Investors often prefer the almost guaranteed returns of government securities offering close to 20 percent over the risks associated with longer-term productive investments. This creates a trade-off between short-term liquidity stability and long-term capital formation.

As inflation gradually eases, Kale said the CBN is expected to shift its focus from attracting foreign portfolio inflows to encouraging FDI by carefully lowering interest rates in a sequenced manner.

Timing will be crucial: cutting rates too soon could reignite inflationary pressures, prolong reform-induced hardships, and undermine exchange rate stability; waiting too long risks crowding out domestic investment and critical FDI necessary for industrialization and job creation.

On the occasion of Nigeria’s 65th independence anniversary, Kale’s message is clear: hope grounded in action, resilience, and strategic reforms can unlock a prosperous future for the nation.

The Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) has said that Nigeria must begin to act urgently to transform ongoing economic reforms into sustainable growth and shared prosperity for citizens, warning that failure to consolidate the current phase could erode the hard gains made so far.

The Economic group highlighted a seven-point focus area at the ongoing Economic Summit in Abuja, on Monday, that must underpin the next stage of reforms, which includes a renewed focus on industrialisation and enterprise growth, infrastructure development and unlocking investments.

The group also highlighted fiscal sustainability, inclusion, strengthened institutions and improved security as critical drivers for the next phase of the reforms.

According to NESG, these reforms will not only bring gains for Nigerians but can also unlock the ambitious $1 trillion economy.

Olaniyi Yusuf, chairman, NESG, in his opening remarks, commended the government for taking ‘courageous steps’ to remove fuel subsidies, unify the foreign exchange market, and initiate tax reforms, but acknowledged that Nigerians are currently in grief for these changes. He stressed that the real test now lies in converting reform gains into tangible improvements in productivity, competitiveness, and inclusion.

‘If we stop here, we risk losing the progress that has been so courageously won. The challenge before us is to move decisively into the consolidation phase, embedding reforms in ways that drive jobs, growth, and inclusion, while laying the foundations for long-term transformation that will secure prosperity for every Nigerian’, he said.

He framed Nigeria’s reform journey around three distinct phases: stabilisation, consolidation, and acceleration, and called for deliberate policy action to move from the first to the second phase.

‘For the mother wondering how to stretch her infant, for the young breadwinner searching for opportunity, and for the small business trying to stay afloat, reforms must not only stabilise our economy, they must also translate into opportunity and prosperity.’ Yusuf said.

The NESG chairman said the country’s economic recovery remained fragile despite signs of improvement, as growth averaged 3.7 per cent in the first half of 2025, up from 2.9 per cent in the same period last year, while oil production has risen to 1.6 million barrels per day amid improved security in the Niger Delta. Yet, inflation at 20.1 per cent, weak capital inflows, and rising living costs continue to squeeze households and businesses.

He also warned against a narrow focus on Internally Generated Revenue (IGR) at the expense of business growth, saying it will ‘will kill the goose that lays the golden egg’.

On industrialisation, he said, ‘We must build industries that will produce locally, anchor them to local value chains, output processing, renewable energy, and light manufacturing. SMEs that account for 96% of our businesses must have access to affordable finance, stable power, and technology.’

He said investment in infrastructure, especially transportation, renewable power, efficient logistics, and digital connectivity, will ensure competitiveness.

The NESG chairman said Nigeria must also ensure policy predictability, transparent regulations to attract and protect investment.

For fiscal sustainability. Nigeria must strengthen revenue generation, manage debt prudently, and align fiscal and monetary policies to foster growth while keeping inflation in check. Economic reforms must be felt through improved education, healthcare, food security, and jobs, especially for women and young people.

He urged Nigeria to strengthen its institutions, arguing that lasting reforms depend on systems, not personalities. Regulators, he added, must enable rather than stifle business growth.

Beyond consolidation, Yusuf said Nigeria must prepare for an ‘acceleration phase’ driven by structural transformation, human capital development, and global competitiveness. He stressed industrialisation, infrastructure, investment, inclusion, and institutions, the ‘five I’s’ – as the pillars that will anchor this long-term transformation.

He also urged collaboration between government and the private sector, describing the latter as a ‘co-driver of transformation, not merely a beneficiary.’

While acknowledging that vested interests, weak institutions, and governance gaps have slowed reform implementation, Yusuf reaffirmed the NESG’s commitment to act as a bridge between policy and execution.

Omoboyede Olusanya, Vice Chairman of NESG, speaking on the ambitious target for $1 trillion economy by 2030, said it is achievable but Nigeria ‘can’t continue to do the same thing and expect to have a different outcome’.

For him, one of the biggest things that must happen is industrialisation driven by agricultural production, noting that the yield is still low. In addition, he said Nigeria must build the infrastructure that would drive industrialisation.

According to him, attaining the target would mean moving a significant part of the citizens out of poverty.

He noted that Nigeria, currently at $225 billion, would need an additional $745 billion to the GDP in four years at 15% annual GDP growth. Thus, Olusanya said effort levels need to be unprecedented, urgent, immediate, and collaborative

‘If you think that China at its peak was doing 11%, that tells you the phenomenal work that needs to be done’, he said.

To accelerate progress, Olusanya urged sustained investment in technology, human capital development, and macroeconomic stability with favourable interest rates that would allow investment to thrive.

‘We cannot get pure macroeconomic stability in an environment where we keep seeing high interest rates. The interest rates today are to be tuned on to encourage investment’, he urged.

LASACO Assurance Plc has emphasised the importance of early investment in the future of Nigeria’s next generation and the stimulation of insurance right from the grassroots.

The insurance Company believes that grooming the next generation will require financial literacy and building the right culture through strategic investment in schoolchildren.

Sesan Oki, head, Internal Control and Compliance, at LASACO who represented the MD/CEO during the official commissioning of a state-of-the-art ‘Lasaco Smart Class’ in Agindigbi Junior grammar school, Ikeja emphasized that the project represents more than a donation; it is an investment in the future of Nigeria’s next generation and the stimulation of insurance right from the grassroots.

‘At Lasaco Assurance, we recognize that education and technology are the twin pillars of progress. The Lasaco Smart Class is not only a contribution to improved learning outcomes, but also a deliberate effort to nurture young minds with the values of foresight, security, and preparedness which insurance represents,’ he stated.

By integrating digital literacy with insurance consciousness, Lasaco Assurance is reaffirming its leadership as a forward-thinking organization that goes beyond business to positively impact lives a The launch of the Lasaco Smart Class marks the beginning of a broader CSR agenda focused on education, innovation, and community empowerment.

The Smart Class initiative underscores Lasaco Assurance Plc’s drive to enhance digital literacy, bridge educational gaps, and promote technology-driven learning environments in underserved institutions.

Fully equipped with modern digital tools, the facility is designed to empower students with 21st-century skills, preparing them to thrive in a rapidly evolving, technology-first world.

In addition to providing digital resources, the Lasaco Smart Class is also strategically positioned to instil the culture of insurance awareness in young learners, fostering early understanding of the role of insurance in financial security, risk management, and sustainable growth.

Jerry Adams, the executive chairman, Kaduna State Internal Revenue Services (KADIRS) has said that the remarkable increase in tax compliance is the direct result of the leadership style of Governor Uba Sani.

He disclosed this on Monday at the KADIRS headquarters in Kaduna while hosting a delegation from the Fiscal Responsibility Commission on a collaborative visit aimed at strengthening institutional ties and promoting synergy between both agencies.

Adams acknowledged KADIRS’ critical role in monitoring revenue growth in Kaduna.

In his remarks, Sani Rabiu Bako, Executive Chairman of the Kaduna State Fiscal Responsibility Commission, commended KADIRS as a key revenue-generating institution, highlighting its strong performance.

Bako, who commended KADIRS for its role in advancing the Governor’s agenda, requested the submission of regular monthly allocation reports to strengthen compliance monitoring across MDAs. He also offered condolences over the recent passing of a KADIRS staff member.

Notable attendees included Muhammad Lawal, Executive Director of Revenue Operations; Ishaku Hakimi Mazangona, Director of Area Revenue Office Coordination; unit heads; and representatives from the Kaduna State Fiscal Responsibility Commission.

President Bola Tinubu has defended his administration’s sweeping economic reforms, insisting that every policy decision has been guided by ‘a pursuit of balance between economic logic and public expectation,’ even as he acknowledged the pain Nigerians continue to face in the transition period.

Speaking through Vice President Kashim Shettima on Monday at the opening of the 31st Nigerian Economic Summit (NESG) in Abuja, the President said the government’s tough choices were beginning to yield tangible results across key sectors – including improved revenue generation, debt management, and macroeconomic stability.

Tinubu said, ‘There is no single decision we have taken that is not guided by the pursuit of balance between economic logic and public expectation. Every reform we have introduced has emerged from deep reflection, difficult conversations, and the courage to act in the national interest.’

He noted that Nigeria’s economy expanded to $372.8 billion in 2024, up from $309.5 billion in 2023, while total revenue rose from $19.9 billion to $25.2 billion within the same period. The country’s debt-to-GDP ratio, he added, stood at 38.8 per cent, well below the 60 per cent limit prescribed by both the Fiscal Responsibility Act and the ECOWAS threshold.

‘Our tax-to-GDP ratio has now nudged towards 13.5 percent, up from barely 7 percent a few years ago,’ he said.

‘These are not mere statistics; they tell the story of a nation committed to reform and renewal. It shows that our decisions, though tough, are restoring fiscal confidence and investor trust.’

He further disclosed that Nigeria’s fiscal deficit had dropped sharply, with the debt service-to-revenue ratio declining to less than 50 per cent, compared to 97 per cent before the administration came into office.

Despite the improvements, Shettima admitted that the benefits of these reforms had not yet fully translated into jobs or relief for citizens.

‘I admit that this growth has not yet fully translated into enough jobs for our people, but we are closing that gap,’ he said, noting that the administration was prioritising agriculture, solid minerals, and small business financing to create sustainable employment.

Among other initiatives, the government has established a ?200 billion integration fund to support small and medium-scale enterprises (SMEs) and launched the New Hope Local Economy Programme, targeting all 8,809 wards across Nigeria’s 774 local government areas.

Tinubu, through the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, also highlighted tax reforms as key to boosting domestic revenue and reducing dependence on oil. He cited the recently enacted Tax Reform Act and new revenue administration laws as major steps in this direction.

‘These reforms will take low-income earners off the tax bracket, ensure fairness in corporate taxation, and strengthen digital innovation in tax administration,’ he said.

‘We are simplifying processes, blocking leakages, and ensuring that every kobo counts.’

On infrastructure, the President said the government was currently constructing over 2,700 kilometres of superhighways and 440 road projects nationwide, alongside new rail lines and bridges.

He described such investments as ‘the axis of national prosperity and a pathway to long-term productivity.’

As he declared the summit open on behalf of the President, Shettima reaffirmed Tinubu’s commitment to an economy that is ‘stable, industrialised, and humanised.’

‘We will stabilise prices and the naira, industrialise our economy, humanise governance, and ensure that every citizen feels respected and served,’ he concluded.

He added, ‘The government is ready to receive and implement recommendations that will align with our deliberations through the relevant ministries, departments, and agencies.

‘My fellow Nigerians, we are not condemned to low growth, high cost, and low cost. We’ll stabilise.

‘We’ll industrialise. We’ll humanise our economy. We’ll stabilise prices and prices.

‘And we will industrialise food, power, logistics, and technology.

‘We’ll humanise governance so that every citizen feels respected and served.

‘On this note, I want to dwell on something that is very dear, a topical issue that is very dear to the hearts of every Nigerian.’

Turning to the ongoing tension between organised labour and the private sector, Tinubu made an emotional appeal for restraint and cooperation.

He also addressed the Dangote Refinery dispute, urging all stakeholders to avoid actions that could jeopardise the country’s economic recovery and investor confidence.

‘If we had invested $10 billion in Microsoft, Amazon, or Google, it would probably be worth $80 billion today. But we chose to invest in this country, and we owe it to future generations to protect that investment from harm,’ he said.

Calling for ‘caution, retrospection, and a deeper sense of reality’ from both labour and the private sector, the President warned that the refinery issue must not be allowed to escalate into a national economic setback.

‘Aliko Dangote is not an individual; he is an institution,’ Tinubu said firmly. ‘How we treat him will determine how outside investors will see us. Nigeria is greater than PENGASSAN.

‘We must protect investments and safeguard our economic stability. The government will not shy away from addressing labour concerns, but we must do so responsibly.’

He confirmed that the Federal Government was engaging the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) to pilot solutions that promote industrial harmony and protect strategic national investments such as the Dangote Refinery, which he described as a ‘critical national asset.’

‘We cannot call the whole nation to answer because of issues that we can resolve through constructive dialogue,’ he said.

‘The Nigerian Economic Summit Group is taking more than a person’s interest in the matter. The government will expect piloting recommendations from the NESG.

‘In addressing this issue, the government is also taking steps to protect the industry and ensure industrial harmony for the good of the nation.

‘This is a refinery that was financed through a combination of equity investment, debt finance, and loans from local and foreign banks.

‘The refinery has to function. And we cannot call the whole nation to answer because of issues that we can advocate in a certain approach later.’

The 31st Nigerian Economic Summit, themed ‘Building a Prosperous and Inclusive Nigeria by 2030,’ gathered top government officials, diplomats, business leaders, and policymakers to deliberate on strategies for inclusive national growth.

Global leaders in information and communication technologies will convene at the World Telecommunication Development Conference 2025 (WTDC-25), to address the pressing challenge of connecting the 2.6 billion people worldwide who remain offline.

Organised by the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) and hosted by the Government of Azerbaijan, the conference, scheduled to take place from November 17-28 in Baku, Azerbaijan, aims to create a roadmap for universal, meaningful, and affordable connectivity to bridge the global digital divide.

Doreen Bogdan-Martin, ITU secretary-general, in a press statement, said for the 2.6 billion unconnected, digital development is more than a technical challenge.

‘It is a test of our collective commitment to an inclusive, sustainable digital future for all. WTDC-25 is our moment to transform that commitment into action so that everyone, everywhere can benefit from technology,’ Bogdan-Martin averred.

The conference, held every four years, will prioritise the digital development needs of least developed countries (LDCs), landlocked developing countries (LLDCs), and small island developing states (SIDS), where connectivity remains a significant hurdle.

According to ITU estimates, only about one-third of populations in LDCs and LLDCs are online, underscoring the urgency of targeted action. Under the theme ‘Universal, meaningful, and affordable connectivity for an inclusive and sustainable digital future,’ WTDC-25 will see ITU Member States set priorities for the ITU’s Telecommunication Development Sector (ITU-D) for 2026-2029.

These priorities will focus on fostering socio-economic development through technology, with an emphasis on resilient infrastructure, innovation, and inclusivity.

‘Sustainable digital transformation calls for bold, human-centred action coupled with investment in resilient infrastructure, innovation and inclusiveness. WTDC-25 is our chance to define the next steps together with our members and partners to bridge the multiple digital divides to make meaningful connectivity a reality for everyone,’ said Cosmas Luckyson Zavazava, director of ITU’s telecommunication development bureau.

Azerbaijan’s role as host highlights its growing leadership in digital transformation. Hosting WTDC-25 in Baku, the first in the Commonwealth of Independent States, is an honour and a historic vote of confidence from the ITU, forged over three decades of partnership since 1992. Providing the venue for this important conference underscores Azerbaijan’s rising leadership in meaningful connectivity and sustainable digital transformation, and our determination to shape the future of global telecommunications and digital inclusion,’ said Rashad Nabiyev, Azerbaijan’s minister of Digital Development and Transport.

As the 2030 deadline for global development goals approaches, WTDC-25 will reaffirm the critical role of digital technologies in advancing well-being, protecting the planet, and boosting prosperity for all. The conference is poised to deliver actionable solutions to ensure no one is left behind in the digital age.

Nigeria’s U20 side, the Flying Eagles, have booked their place in the Round of 16 at the ongoing FIFA U20 World Cup in Chile after earning a hard-fought 1-1 draw against Colombia in their final group game on Sunday.

The result means the seven-time African champions will face Argentina at the Estadio Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos in Santiago on Wednesday, a repeat of the quarter-final encounter at the 2001 tournament hosted by Argentina, where Nigeria won 2-0 in San Juan.

Flying Eagles goalkeeper Ebenezer Harcourt was instrumental in keeping the Flying Eagles in the contest, pulling off key saves in the 23rd and 26th minutes to deny Colombia an early lead.

Nigeria, however, looked the more adventurous side, striking the woodwork multiple times through Tahir Maigana, Kparobo Arierhi, and Suleman Sani, who kept the South Americans under constant pressure.

Colombia took the lead six minutes after the restart when Kener Gonzalez finished off a clever assist from Neyser Villareal, but the Flying Eagles refused to be deterred, pressing relentlessly for an equaliser.

Defender Odinaka Okoro came close in the 76th minute, seeing his header saved after connecting with a Maigana cross. The breakthrough finally came in the 86th minute when captain Daniel Bameyi calmly converted from the penalty spot after a Colombian defender handled Maigana’s goal-bound effort.

Nigeria nearly snatched victory late on, but Arierhi’s 89th-minute shot was blocked inside the box, ensuring the points were shared.

The Flying Eagles now shift their focus to a high-profile knockout showdown with Argentina.

Governor Hope Uzodinma of Imo State has tasked the Board and Management of the Anambra-Imo River Basin Development Authority to work hard in order close the gaps that exist in water sector, agriculture, power, food security, livestock among others in the South-East and Nigeria, in the course of discharging their duties.

He gave the challenge when he received the Agency’s new team led by Emmanuel Anosike, the Chairman and a Senator on a courtesy visit at the Government House Owerri.

Governor Uzodinma urged the Board and Management to galvanise the Agency’s programmes to be able to address critical areas that exist in the areas within their mandate.

The governor, who congratulated members of the team on their appointments, advised them to avoid project duplication, but cooperate with State Government-owned agencies to harmonise their projects to get the SMEs, adding, ‘and call us for any possible assistance or support.’

He expressed confidence in the integrity of the new Board, given the background of the Chairman, Anosike, and the Managing Director of the Agency, Emeka Nduka whom, he said, ‘are very conversant with the original objectives for setting up that platform and the expectations of the people, and how the organisation will, in collaboration with other agencies, facilitate development in all sectors of the economy.’

Governor Uzodinma advised the Board to avoid project duplications and cooperate with State Governments to address the needs of the people. ”As you do that not only Imo State, the South East but Nigeria will be better for all of us,’ he stressed.

He further urged the Board to hit the ground running as Imo State is indeed happy to play host to the Agency and has them as partners.

‘If you desire more land, don’t hesitate to approach the government. We need to plant what we eat and eat what we plant,” Uzodinma noted.

Earlier, Anosike said that their visit was ‘to pay courtesy call on the host Governor, Senator Hope Uzodinma after the inauguration of the Board in May, 2025.’

He expressed appreciation to President Bola Tinubu for finding them worthy of the appointment and to Governor Uzodinma for his magnanimity, recommendation, and facilitating their appointments in November last year.

Nigeria has never lacked reform blueprints. From the mid-2000s banking consolidation to fuel subsidy removals, privatisation, and exchange-rate adjustments, policymakers have repeatedly promised turning points.

Yet for most Nigerians, these reforms have felt like waves that rise and fall without lifting living standards. The pattern is familiar: bold technical fixes are introduced, optimism briefly spikes, and then the gains evaporate. The real issue is not the absence of ideas, but the weakness of the institutions meant to carry them through.

This is the context in which the 31st Nigerian Economic Summit (NES #31), scheduled for October in Abuja, assumes unusual significance.

Themed ‘The Reform Imperative: Building a Prosperous and Inclusive Nigeria by 2030’, the summit will focus on three guiding pillars: reforms, resilience, and results and explore sub themes such as industrialisation, investment flows, infrastructure, inclusion, and institutional strengthening.

Among these, the emphasis on building strong institutions may prove to be the most critical.

When institutions fail, reforms falter

Policy inconsistency, corruption, fragile regulatory frameworks, and poor governance have long undermined Nigeria’s economic transformation. The 2014 power sector privatisation promised to unlock billions in investment, yet the absence of a robust regulatory regime and entrenched governance flaws left households facing blackouts and businesses reliant on diesel generators.

In 2016, the adoption of a managed float for the naira was meant to stabilise the currency, but opaque implementation and conflicting signals from regulators deepened investor anxiety.

More recently, the removal of fuel subsidies and the unification of exchange rates under President Bola Tinubu in 2023 were praised by multilateral lenders, yet the immediate social costs – soaring transport fares, higher food prices, and suppressed wages – have left citizens sceptical that reforms work for them.

The lesson is clear: technical reforms cannot thrive in the absence of credible institutions. Without trust in governance, every policy shift is seen not as an opportunity but as a threat. As Niyi Yusuf, Chairman of NESG, recently argued, reforms may deliver a short-term cushion, but only institutions can guarantee long-term results.

He went further, warning: ‘What is required now is a second wave of reforms; structural, deliberate, and transformative.’

Faruq Quadri, CEO of SPEC-MATRIX, added that institutional weakness remains the bottleneck for every well-intentioned policy and economic reform.

Nigeria’s institutional deficit

Nigeria’s institutional fragility is not abstract. The judiciary struggles with delays and perceived political influence, eroding contract enforcement. Regulatory agencies, from power to aviation to oil, are often underfunded and vulnerable to capture by vested interests.

Anti-corruption campaigns have been high-profile but inconsistent, with enforcement appearing selective. This combination has weakened both domestic and foreign investor confidence, while also fuelling public cynicism.

Data underline the scale of the challenge. Nigeria ranked 145th out of 180 countries in Transparency International’s 2023 Corruption Perceptions Index, slipping behind several African peers. The World Bank’s Worldwide Governance Indicators show persistent weaknesses in regulatory quality and rule of law.

Meanwhile, the IMF has repeatedly highlighted policy reversals and lack of coordination as constraints on growth. These institutional gaps explain why Nigeria’s economy, despite its scale and resource base, has struggled to sustain growth above population expansion for much of the past decade.

As Yusuf told business leaders earlier this year: ‘Nigeria will only rise when we produce what we consume and consume what we produce.’ That vision, however, demands institutions strong enough to enforce discipline and sustain reform momentum.

Reform without institutions is reform without results

At NES #31, delegates will no doubt debate industrialisation and investment flows, but the more fundamental question is whether Nigeria can build institutions capable of sustaining these reforms. Without stronger oversight, credible regulation, and greater policy continuity, the cycle of reform and relapse is likely to persist.

The stakes could not be higher. Nigeria’s median age is just 18, with millions entering the labour market each year. If institutions remain weak, reforms will fail to generate the jobs and opportunities needed to absorb this demographic surge. On the other hand, credible institutions can unlock the benefits of Nigeria’s youthful population, abundant resources, and growing markets.

For Nigeria, the summit offers a chance to break the cycle. Reform is imperative, but reform without institutions is reform without results.

On Monday, just hours after unveiling his cabinet, Sébastien Lecornu, the 39-year-old prime minister walked out of the Hôtel de Matignon, coat buttoned, voice tight, and announced his resignation. In doing so, he became the shortest-serving prime minister in the history of France’s Fifth Republic.

Lecornu’s resignation capped one of the most turbulent political stretches France has seen in years. The country has burned through five prime ministers in less than two years, each undone by the same problem, a parliament too divided to govern and a presidency running out of allies. For president Emmanuel Macron, Lecornu’s sudden exit was a personal and political blow.

The French presidency said in a statement on Monday that Macron has accepted his close ally’s resignation.

Born in 1986 in Eaubonne, north of Paris, Lecornu’s story is not one of privilege but of early ambition. His father worked in aviation, his mother was a medical secretary. By 19, while most of his peers were still in university, he was already a parliamentary assistant-one of the youngest in the National Assembly. He studied law at the prestigious Université Paris II Panthéon-Assas, but his education was always secondary to his true classroom, politics.

Lecornu cut his teeth in Normandy’s rough-and-tumble world of local politics. At just 28, he became mayor of Vernon. Three years later, he was president of the Eure Departmental Council-the youngest in France at the time.

Those who worked with him describe him as meticulous, reserved, sometimes too serious, but utterly committed. His blend of technocratic skill and modest charisma made him a rising figure in the conservative party, Les Républicains.

But Lecornu was never an ideologue. WhenMacron burst onto the national scene in 2017, promising a centrist ‘new way’ of doing politics, Lecornu made the jump, abandoning the traditional right to join the president’s movement.

His loyalty was rewarded, he served successively as minister for local authorities, minister for overseas territories, and, eventually, minister for the armed forces-a post he handled with quiet competence during France’s recalibration of its military role in Africa and its support for Ukraine.

That steadiness, that soldierly composure, was precisely what Macron prized when he appointed Lecornu as prime minister last month. France had just seen the fall of François Bayrou’s government after parliament refused to back his austerity budget. The National Assembly was hung, its factions locked in ideological trench warfare. Lecornu was tasked with doing the impossible, uniting them.

He tried. Over his short weeks in office, Lecornu reached out across the aisle, meeting party leaders, pledging a new method of governance. He promised to end the use of Article 49.3-the constitutional shortcut that allows governments to bypass parliamentary votes-and to rely instead on compromise. He promised to form a government of ‘rupture’, signalling a break from the Macron loyalist circles that had dominated power for nearly a decade.

But when his cabinet list was released on Sunday evening, the rupture looked more like repetition. Of the fifteen ministers, ten were holdovers from previous governments. None came from the left or far right. Bruno Retailleau, interior minister and a senior figure on the right, expressed his dismay on X: ‘The composition of the government does not reflect the promised break.’ Within hours, opposition parties announced they would vote the cabinet down.

By Monday morning, Lecornu faced the inevitable. Standing outside Matignon, he spoke in a clipped, disappointed tone: ‘I was ready for compromise,’ he said. ‘But all parties behaved as if they held absolute majorities. It wouldn’t have taken much for this to work, but egos got in the way.’ His words captured both the exhaustion and futility of French politics today-a landscape fractured by mutual suspicion and pride.

Marine Le Pen, whose far-right National Rally now commands the largest single bloc in parliament, wasted no time. ‘The only wise thing to do now is to hold elections,’ she declared. ‘The joke’s gone on long enough.’ On the left, the message was similar: Macron had lost control; the government was no longer credible.

France’s financial markets reacted within minutes. Stocks tumbled on the Paris exchange. Investors feared that without a functioning government, France’s already precarious budget-its debt at 114 percent of GDP, deficit at 5.8 percent-would spiral further. Lecornu’s government, in theory, was to stabilise that. In practice, it had not even begun.

In political circles, Lecornu’s downfall has sparked sympathy as well as resignation. ‘He was the last loyalist,’ said one Macron adviser quoted anonymously in Le Monde. ‘If even he couldn’t survive, it means the system itself is breaking.’

France is a country where governing has become nearly impossible. The president’s centrist bloc lacks numbers; the far right and far left refuse to cooperate; and the middle ground-the space Lecornu tried to occupy-has all but vanished.

When he left Matignon, Lecornu’s final words were reflective, almost rueful. ‘You can’t be prime minister when the conditions simply aren’t t here,’ he said. ‘The country deserves better than endless gridlock.’

For Lecornu-once the youngest departmental president in the nation, once the steady hand at the defence ministry, now the shortest-serving premier in modern history-stands as both symbol and casualty of a political system that has forgotten how to govern itself.