Remember sacrifice of Ninoy-Atienza

A FORMER lawmaker and one of the few surviving opposition leaders during martial law has reminded Filipinos to not forget the sacrifice of martyred senator Benigno ‘Ninoy’ Aquino, who was assassinated as he returned from exile 43 years ago.

‘Ang brutal na pagpatay kay Ninoy ang siyang gumalit at gumising sa ating mga Pilipino na nagmamahal sa ating bayan [The brutal murder of Ninoy outraged and awakened Filipinos who love their country],’ former House Deputy Majority Leader Lito Atienza said in a statement.

The former three-term mayor of Manila and Environment secretary was one of a handful of opposition lawmakers who were elected to the Interim Batasang Pambansa in 1984.

Because of Ninoy’s sacrifice, Filipinos ‘found in themselves the strength to take a stand and defend the truth, democracy and our freedoms against the abuses of those who led us during martial law,’ he added in his statement, mostly in Filipino.

‘Nawa’y huwag nating makalimutan ang kalahagahan at mga aral ng kabayanihan at sakripisyo ni Ninoy para sa ating bayan [May we not forget the significance of the lessons and sacrifice Ninoy made for our country],’ he concluded.

Ninoy’s murder at the airport tarmac that now bears his name fanned the flames of an already expanding national movement for democratic restoration, sparking protests culminating in the 1986 Edsa peaceful revolt.

China, Indonesia agree to deepen defense ties in high-level talks

China and Indonesia agreed to deepen their military, maritime and technology cooperation in high-level talks in Jakarta on Friday, underscoring Beijing’s growing regional reach at a time of renewed uncertainty over US security commitments in Asia.

Indonesian Defense Minister Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin, after meeting his Chinese counterpart Dong Jun, said both countries will expand personnel exchanges and defense-industry cooperation to strengthen military capabilities. Hours later, Foreign Minister Sugiono and China’s Wang Yi agreed to explore greater market access for key Indonesian commodities and deepen cooperation in artificial intelligence, communications satellites, energy and minerals.

Wang said the countries would restart fisheries cooperation and promote joint development in the South China Sea, while working toward concluding talks on a regional code of conduct. Sugiono said they also committed to continuing the Jakarta-Bandung high-speed rail project, using sustainable financing and efforts to increase passenger volumes.

The meetings came ahead of a second foreign-and-defense ministerial, or ‘2+2’ dialogue due later Friday, and add a new strategic layer to a relationship underpinned by roughly $155 billion in two-way trade last year. They also highlight President Prabowo Subianto’s effort to deepen ties with both Beijing and Washington, which are competing for influence in the region.

Indonesia and the US in April established the Major Defense Cooperation Partnership covering military modernization, training, exercises and operational cooperation. Still, many in Asia are questioning Washington’s commitment to the region, especially after President Donald Trump abruptly curtailed exercises with South Korea.

Indonesia’s closer China ties also build on the first 2+2 dialogue in Beijing in April 2025, when Jakarta and Beijing agreed to deepen security and maritime cooperation, including intelligence exchanges, coordinated operations and stronger coast guard ties.

The foreign ministers on Friday also launched the first Indonesia-China Comprehensive Strategic Dialogue and welcomed discussions on a five-year action plan for 2027-2031.

China has pushed for a broader strategic role for the partnership. Dong said the countries should deepen security cooperation through Association of Southeast Asian Nations frameworks and serve as an example of defense ties among Global South nations. He also called on them to thwart the ‘malicious intentions of external forces,’ according to a simultaneous translation.

But the sensitivity of that cooperation was on display just over a week before Wang and Dong’s visit. China described an interaction between Chinese and Indonesian warships east of Taiwan as a joint ‘navigation exercise,’ while Indonesia called it a routine passing exercise by a frigate returning from Russia and stressed that it wasn’t related to war-fighting.

Taiwan, which China asserts is its territory, condemned the maneuver.

The closer security cooperation also comes despite longstanding differences in the South China Sea. A 2024 joint statement between Prabowo and Chinese President Xi Jinping referred to ‘joint development in areas of overlapping claims,’ prompting concern that Jakarta was softening its opposition to Beijing’s sweeping maritime claims. Indonesia later said it didn’t recognize China’s nine-dash line or any overlapping maritime claims, including in waters near the Natuna Islands.

Defense ties could extend further into weapons procurement. Indonesia has been considering buying Chinese-made Chengdu J-10 fighter jets, although no contracts have yet been finalized.

Economic cooperation remains central to the relationship. Sugiono said the two countries agreed to strengthen local-currency transactions and financial collaboration, while Wang said Indonesia had committed to providing a fair, transparent and conducive business environment for Chinese companies.

There have been some corporate frictions. Chinese companies have complained that tighter Indonesian nickel policies are raising costs and threatening investments, while China’s embassy warned that the policy changes could put about $50 billion of existing and planned investment at risk.

Canadian provincial leader says Trump is a ‘bad person’ as Canada weighs concessions for trade deal

The premier of a Canadian province launched a blistering attack on US President Donald Trump on Thursday, calling him a ‘bad person’ and ‘not to be trusted’ and urging Canada to keep fighting rather than rush to make concessions in trade talks with Washington.

Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew said Canada has leverage in the talks even as his province weighs restoring U.S. alcohol sales at Prime Minister Mark Carney’s urging to help secure a deal that would avert threatened 50% US tariffs.

‘Everybody knows the American president by now, he’s erratic, he’s irresponsible, and he’s not to be trusted. And this is the person that we were supposed to make a deal with, and we’re going to make additional concessions for it. That’s why I say you can’t make a good deal with a bad person, because who’s to say it’s not going to be undone?’ Kinew said. Dominic LeBlanc, the federal minister responsible for Canada-U.S. trade, said Thursday the two countries were close to finalizing an agreement after he returned to Washington to meet again with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer.

‘We’re very close. We continue to make progress,’ he said, adding that Canadian officials would remain in Washington to keep working on the deal. Trump has called the emerging agreement ‘very fair’ to both sides, while tariffs on about $20 billion worth of Canadian imports have been postponed until 12:01 a.m. Saturday. Neither side has released the full terms.

Despite his criticism of Trump, Kinew said Manitoba may go along with Carney’s request as part of a ‘Team Canada’ approach. But he urged consumers to keep buying Canadian even if U.S. products return to provincial liquor stores. Other provincial leaders, including the premiers of Saskatchewan and Nova Scotia, have publicly backed the direction of Carney’s negotiation.

Newfoundland and Labrador Premier Tony Wakeham said all premiers agreed during Wednesday’s call with Carney to return US alcohol to store shelves, although not every premier has publicly confirmed that position.

‘I think we should fight. I think Donald Trump is very weak. I think America is weaker around the world today than it was a year ago. He’s about to get slaughtered in the midterms and the cost of living is the number one issue and he’s completely out of touch with the cost of living of Americans,’ Kinew said.

‘We’ve got the upper hand. They are back on their heels right now. They are coming to us for a deal right now.’

Restoring alcohol sales a sticking point

Kinew said he understood Carney’s request to mean that restoring US alcohol sales was effectively necessary to complete the deal. The provincial bans on US alcohol have been a particular irritant for the Trump administration, which has pressed Canada to remove restrictions that sharply reduced American liquor sales.

Provincial governments do not have a veto over the overall Canada-U.S. agreement, but they control measures such as liquor sales and some procurement rules that have become part of the negotiations.

Eight of Canada’s 10 provinces restrict or ban U.S. alcohol-measures imposed in retaliation for Trump’s previous tariffs on Canadian goods and amid anger over his repeated talk of making Canada the 51st US state.

Kinew said Carney strongly pressed premiers to restore U.S. alcohol sales while other details of the agreement were still being finalized. ‘I wouldn’t say that he was begging us, but what is the step before begging?’ Kinew said.

Ontario, Canada’s most populous province, is especially important. Its government-run LCBO, one of the world’s largest alcohol purchasers, sold nearly 1 billion Canadian dollars ($723 million) worth of US products annually before pulling them from shelves last year.

Ontario Premier Doug Ford, who has clashed with Trump before, has not yet commented on the emerging deal.

Kinew said Canadians should not buy American products even if they return.

‘When we put the American booze back on the Liquor Mart shelves, Canadians, leave it there. Spend your money on Canadian products that are going to employ people in our country and that have an administration that respects Canada,’ Kinew said.

Kinew also said Manitoba could agree to remove formal restrictions on US companies and products, including procurement preferences, while continuing to favor Canadian suppliers in its own purchasing.

Kinew said he preferred to keep fighting, noting the U.S. Republican president’s tendency to levy extremely high import taxes and then retreat. He mentioned what’s known as the ‘TACO’ trade, an acronym coined by The Financial Times’ Robert Armstrong that stands for ‘Trump Always Chickens Out.’

‘Do we expect that this is going to be the end of Donald Trump?,’ Kinew said.

Quebec Premier Christine Fréchette, meanwhile, said Carney had answered many of her questions about the emerging agreement but stopped short of endorsing it while the province assesses the economic impact. She said Quebec could restore U.S. alcohol to shelves at the SAQ, the Quebec government corporation that controls most wine and spirits sales in the province, but stressed that the decision would be Quebec’s.

Robert Bothwell, a professor emeritus of Canadian history and international relations at the University of Toronto, said Kinew’s criticism reflects a broader Canadian view of Trump. ‘Kinew speaks for Canada,’ Bothwell said. ‘The majority of the Canadian people hates Trump.’

SBMA seeks proposals for ?7-B Subic airport project

THE Subic Bay Metropolitan Authority (SBMA) has opened to competing private-sector proposals a P7-billion project to rehabilitate, expand, and operate the Subic International Airport (SIA) under a 25-year concession.

The project entered the comparative challenge stage after SBMA approved an unsolicited proposal from US-based investment company Cerberus Asia Pacific Investments LLC, the Public-Private Partnership (PPP) Center said on Thursday.

‘Through the Comparative Challenge process, the SBMA invites interested and qualified local and foreign private sector challengers to submit comparative proposals for the modernization, expansion, operation, and maintenance of one of the country’s strategically located aviation assets,’ the PPP Center said.

Under the unsolicited proposal process, Cerberus, as the original proponent, may match or improve the most advantageous offer submitted by a challenger. This means that the project has not yet been awarded to a private operator.

The comparative challenge began on April 27, while the instructions to prospective challengers were released on July 31.

Structured as an Operate-Rehabilitate-Add-Transfer arrangement, the project will require the winning private partner to operate and rehabilitate the airport, build additional facilities, and eventually return the assets to SBMA at the end of the concession.

The 25-year concession may be extended subject to performance conditions agreed upon by the government and the private operator.

Much of the airport’s existing structures and interior facilities have deteriorated and will require major repairs, according to the project brief.

The project also includes the extension of the airport’s Runway End Safety Area (Resa) and coordination with the Civil Aviation Authority of the Philippines (CAAP) and the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) on aviation safety and weather services.

‘The Project also includes upgrades, new developments, and the acquisition of equipment to expand airport capacity, improve operational efficiency, and support new service offerings such as commercial cargo and government warehousing operations,’ the PPP Center said.

These include two warehouse buildings with a combined floor area of about 22,400 square meters and a 32,000-square-meter aircraft staging and parking area under the proposed Midway Apron Development.

Located within the Subic Bay Freeport Zone, the airport covers about 1.74 million square meters. It has a 2.7- kilometer runway capable of accommodating large commercial aircraft.

According to the PPP Center, the concessionaire may earn from cargo handling, warehousing, airport charges, commercial leasing, logistics services and other aeronautical and non-aeronautical activities. It will also pay business taxes, airport management fees, and a share of its revenues to SBMA.

It added that SBMA will retain oversight of the airport and assist the private operator in securing permits and coordinating with aviation and other government agencies.

The PPP Center initially valued the SIA project at P5.31 billion when the Cerberus proposal entered the government’s PPP pipeline in 2025, before raising the estimate to P7 billion in the revised bidding timetable.

DOLE seeks midyear wage checks to help workers

MINIMUM wages could be reviewed more frequently under a proposed midyear assessment meant to catch sharp price increases before they significantly erode workers’ purchasing power, according to the Department of Labor and Employment (DOLE).

The proposal would give regional wage boards a regular basis to reassess rates outside the usual cycle, including when extraordinary economic conditions emerge.

Labor Secretary Francis N. Tolentino said the National Wages and Productivity Commission (NWPC) and Regional Tripartite Wages and Productivity Boards (RTWPBs) should not wait for workers to file petitions or for conditions to worsen before reviewing existing wage rates.

‘Rather than wait for a petition or for conditions to become dire enough to force an emergency wage order, this commission should now think of producing a midyear wage and price assessment every midyear,’ Tolentino said.

The assessment would track first-half consumer price movements and measure their impact on lower-income households and the real value of minimum wages across regions.

Tolentino also wants clear criteria that would allow regional wage boards to initiate reviews on their own when warranted.

Such a mechanism could allow boards to respond faster when global or domestic developments push up prices and weaken workers’ purchasing power.

‘What we owe the Filipino worker is not just a single generous gesture at the year’s end followed by silence until the next crisis forces our hand,’ Tolentino said.

He said wage-setting should remain flexible and evidence-based, with regular checks on whether current rates still reflect conditions faced by workers and employers.

The proposal comes as the latest Metro Manila minimum wage increase remains covered by a court injunction.

While respecting the order, the government must keep looking for other lawful ways to respond to changing economic conditions, Tolentino said.

‘We should not be held hostage by a court injunction. However erroneous it might be, we have to respect it at the moment,’ he said.

‘We have to find other means to be flexible enough to respond to the conditions as they emerge-means outside the court but within the legal parameters provided for by the Labor Code of the Philippines,’ Tolentino added.

NWPC Executive Director Maria Criselda R. Sy, meanwhile, said wage decisions should put human dignity at their core as the commission and regional boards reviewed wage concerns, upcoming consultations and productivity initiatives.

Tolentino said the broader goal is to make wage-setting more transparent, evidence-based and responsive while balancing the needs of workers and employers.

US ramps up Cuba sanctions and detentions of Americans returning from the island

President Donald Trump’s administration is increasing pressure on Cuba by imposing more economic penalties on industries in the heavily sanctioned socialist country and broadening enforcement of laws that bar Americans who visit the island from dealings with government-owned or -affiliated businesses.

The Treasury and State departments announced Thursday that they are leveling new penalties against nine state-owned mining, metal and construction companies along with the leadership of the Cuban Institute of Friendship with the Peoples, or ICAP.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the institute is responsible for sponsoring ‘a vast subversive network in the United States aimed at identifying, cultivating, and radicalizing’ Americans. ‘Just days ago, the regime attempted to use Communist kingpin and despot Fidel Castro’s 100th birthday to reinvigorate this subversive network, ferrying a new brigade of international sympathizers to Havana to network with regime officials,’ Rubio said in a statement.

‘The Trump Administration will not stand by while a hostile foreign power seeks to exploit our freedoms-none of which are afforded to its people-by misleading and corrupting American citizens with lies, spy tradecraft, and other malfeasance as part of the regime’s raison d’être of exporting Marxism, racial resentment, and Communist violence across the world,’ Rubio said.

Trump’s Republican administration has steadily ratcheted up pressure on Havana, threatening it with potential military intervention even when mired in a conflict against Iran, while also boosting economic sanctions designed to cut off funding for the Cuban government. An oil blockade that the U.S. imposed on Cuba after the American military raid that ousted Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, whose country provided Cuba with subsidized oil, has plunged the already economically crippled island into full-blown crisis.

Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez rejected the sanctions in a post on his official X account, asserting that the United States and Rubio are pursuing the ‘deliberate aim of harming’ the economy ‘to prevent the provision of basic services to the population.’

‘In his failed obsession with Cuba, he is now targeting executives and officials from ICAP-an institution that, for over six decades, has promoted friendship, international solidarity, justice, and peace-the exact opposite of what the Secretary of State has always championed in his corrupt policy,’ Rodríguez wrote.

The latest sanctions follow an operation at the Miami airport last weekend in which several American citizens returning from Cuba after participating in events marking Castro’s birthday were briefly detained, according to US officials. Some of them had their cellphones and other personal electronic devices seized for inspection, the officials said.

US authorities had been prepared to detain dozens of returning

activists for secondary screening, but far fewer were found to meet the criteria for the enhanced questioning by Customs and Border Protection agents, the officials said.

The officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because details of the operation have not been made public, said those detained were eventually released and allowed to enter the US.

PHL insurance penetration slips to 1.96%, says Insurance Commission

THE Philippines’ insurance penetration rate slipped below the government’s target in the second quarter, falling to 1.96 percent, data from the Insurance Commission (IC) showed.

Insurance penetration, or the ratio of total insurance premiums collected to the gross domestic product (GDP), stood at 1.96 percent in the second quarter, 0.8 percentage points lower than the 2.04 percent recorded in the previous quarter.

Compared with the same period last year, the rate increased by 0.16 percentage points, from 1.8 percent, due to a ‘substantial increase’ in premium collections by insurance companies, IC said.

Second-quarter combined premium collections of the insurance industry jumped by 16.24 percent to P282.91 billion from P243.39 billion a year ago.

Bulk of the premium collections was accounted for by the life insurance industry, which rose by 17.91 percent year-on-year to P229.98 billion from P195.05 billion, driven by variable life insurance products.

Meanwhile, premium collections by the non-life insurance industry also grew by 9.96 percent to P44.19 billion from P40.18 billion a year earlier.

Mutual benefit associations (MBAs), likewise, posted a 7.06-percent increase in total contributions, which went up to P8.73 billion from last year’s P8.15 billion.

Insurance density, or the average spending of each individual on insurance, also expanded by 15.24 percent to P2,468.63 in the second quarter from P2,142.19 in the comparable period last year.

Total benefits paid by the entire industry surged by 16.69 percent year-on-year to P90.87 billion from P77.87 billion.

Other key indicators also posted increases, with total assets and net worth reaching P2.761 trillion and P515.549 billion, respectively.

‘The Commission views these developments as encouraging indicators, underscoring rising public awareness of financial protection, greater insurance adoption, and growing confidence in the insurance industry,’ IC said in a statement.

Win: Senate oversight to balance budget reforms with infra spend to boost growth

AMID concern about balancing good governance reforms with boosting infrastructure spending to reverse a steady slide in growth, the Senate will continue to exercise strict oversight of the country’s infra spend to safeguard public funds and ensure every peso delivers tangible benefits to Filipinos.

Senate President Win Gatchalian gave this assurance on Friday after the Department of Budget and Management (DBM) reported that the government remains on track to meet its P1.3-trillion infrastructure spending target this year despite a five-month slide in public works disbursements.

‘This highlights the need for stricter scrutiny of government infrastructure spending. The Senate will continue to uphold the transparency and accountability measures we embedded in the budget,’ said Gatchalian. As former chair of the Senate Committee on Finance, he spearheaded landmark budget reforms to strengthen fiscal transparency and accountability.

DBM data showed infrastructure spending declined by 42.9 percent to P269.4 billion from January to May, compared with P471.5 billion in the same period last year due to stricter review of infrastructure projects.

‘Infrastructure spending is a key driver of economic growth and job creation. We will ensure that public works funds translate into real economic gains, free from the leakages that have plagued past projects,’ he added.

Iranian oil supply to Chinese refiners squeezed by US blockade

The amount of Iranian oil that’s readily available to Chinese buyers is rapidly running out, showing the effectiveness of the US blockade of the country’s ports at choking off revenue to Tehran.

About 40 million barrels of the Islamic Republic’s crude is sitting on vessels near Singapore, in an area that’s a popular ship-to-ship transfer location for oil heading to China, according to Kpler. However, only 10% of that, or two supertanker cargoes, remains unsold, the data intelligence firm said, citing market participants.

The US renewed its blockade in mid-July, and a growing flotilla of Iranian ships are now trapped. At least 41 million barrels of oil is now stuck on vessels inside the Persian Gulf, as are 22 empty tankers, according to Kpler. That’s a blow not only to Tehran, but also to China’s independent refiners, or teapots, the main customers for the crude.

‘Buyers could face virtually no new Iranian supplies available for late-September delivery onwards,’ said Muyu Xu, a senior crude analyst at Kpler. The Iranians can now charge more, given that almost no supply is available, she said.

The squeeze is already showing up in prices. Offers for the Iranian Light grade have risen to as much as $3.50 a barrel above ICE Brent this week, compared with a discount of around $3.50 just a week earlier, Kpler said.

The US is now preparing to ramp up economic measures against Tehran, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent vowing to hit the country with the ‘greatest coordinated economic isolation in the history of the world.’ While details have not yet been released, Chinese ports or refiners that take Iranian oil could be targeted, which would risk worsening the rift between Washington and Beijing.

The hoard of Iranian oil floating off Singapore had previously been growing due to weak demand in China. The recent purchases suggest a possible pickup in consumption by the teapots, who may now have to seek alternative supplies or cut run rates from October.

BSP has space to tame inflation-HSBC

DESPITE weaker-than-expected growth, the central bank has the space it needs to bring inflation back to where it should be, according to HSBC’s Senior Asean Economist Aris Dacanay.

As such, Dacanay said in a report on Thursday: ‘We expect the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) to tighten its monetary reins further by 25bp [basis points] in each of its two remaining rate-setting meetings this year, bringing the policy rate to 5.50 percent by year-end.

Dacanay said the bank expects the BSP to tighten further next week by 25 basis points to 5 percent as a ‘signal to the economy’ that the central bank is on top of inflation.

The HSBC’s Senior Asean Economist said this is in response to the second quarter 2026 BSP sentiment surveys published in July, which show 12-month-ahead inflation expectations of consumers rising to 9 percent, while it rises to 5.6 percent for businesses.

Too early to declare victory over inflation

While data shows there is ‘less urgency’ to tighten monetary policy aggressively, Dacanay said: ‘We think it’s still too early to declare victory over inflation.’

‘Risks to inflation are still heavily skewed towards the upside,’ added the HSBC officer.

For one, he emphasized that renewed tensions in the Middle East have brought back oil prices to above $90 per barrel, while ‘the worst of El Niño has yet to arrive.’

‘Though the effects of El Niño will likely be felt in the fourth quarter of this year, retail rice and vegetable prices have picked up, even as global rice prices have already dipped. The only component keeping food inflation down is a sizeable drop in pork prices, driven by an ongoing global supply glut,’ said Dacanay.

Still, he said the largest inflation risk to consider is the minimum wage hike in Metro Manila.

‘The 12-percent wage hike in the capital-the highest in two-decades-risks setting a precedent for other regions. If other regions follow suit, we estimate inflation could rise by more than a percentage point,’ added Dacanay.

All in all, the bank’s Senior Asean Economist said: ‘High and sticky inflation cannot be confidently ruled out, which we think will keep the BSP’s foot gently rested on the monetary brakes, at the very least.’

FX risks

Apart from inflation, he also took into account risks tied to the USD-PHP exchange rate, which hit an all-time weakest intraday level of P61.995 on Thursday, nearly touching the P62-per-dollar level.

‘The BSP could, therefore, help stabilize the peso by building a buffer against potential Fed action through rate hikes,’ said Dacanay.

This, he added, would be helpful since the spready between the BSP and Fed policy rates, in real terms, is ‘currently minimal. if not flat.’

‘After all, it seems liquidity conditions in the economy (based on excess liquidity) have been marginally tightening due to the BSP’s recent interventions in the FX market,’ the economist said.

‘A rate hike can, therefore, deliver a similar outcome, without having to dip into the central bank’s reserves,’ he also noted.

How far can the BSP go?

Dacanay underscored the need to get a ‘sense’ of what the ceiling is in monetary tightening.

‘Of course,the BSP wouldn’t want to tighten the monetary reins more than necessary. That said, we think the BSP has room to tighten beyond next week’s meeting if it needs to,’ added Dacanay.

Dacanay cited the stable asset quality as one of the factors that could give the central bank enough room to tighten.

‘Non-performing loan ratios for universal banks and consumer loans have remained steady,’ Dacanay said, adding that even the ratio of loans being restructured to total loans issued has remained ‘flat.’

Moreover, he said financial risk ‘seems manageable’ so far.

‘Although interbank lending has fallen lately, the spread between the interbank lending rate and the safest short-term asset (in this case, local 3-month T-bills) has been stable,’ said Dacanay.

This suggests, he said, that banks’ risk aversion hasn’t increased despite slower economic growth.

As a result, Dacanay pointed out that loans to both businesses and households, while softening, continue to grow.

‘And they are growing much faster than nominal GDP growth, suggesting that leverage in the economy continues to build,’ he explained.

One indicator, however, is worth watching: the banking system’s capital adequacy ratio (CAR), which he said has deteriorated by 0.9 percentage point from the start of the year to March due to losses in local bond values.

‘This helps explain why the BSP opened a relief scheme for banks, allowing unrealized losses on peso-denominated government bonds to be excluded from regulatory capital calculations,’ said Dacanay.

Nevertheless, he said at 15.6 percent, the CAR remains ‘well above’ the BSP’s mandated threshold of 10 percent and can therefore absorb a few more rate hikes, he also noted.

‘Though an exact ceiling for monetary tightening may be hard to pin down, we think the BSP can go beyond than just a ‘one and done’ next week,’ said Dacanay.

The Monetary Board, the highest policymaking body of the BSP, is set to hold its fourth scheduled rate-setting meeting on August 27,2026.

The BSP has raised the key interest rate by a total of 50 basis points since the start of the conflict in the Middle East on February 28, delivering two separate quarter-point rate hikes at the Monetary Board’s rate-setting meetings held on April 23 and June 18.

At the Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) briefing before the House Committee on Appropriations on Monday, BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona Jr. said: ‘The Monetary Board will meet next week to decide the next policy action. We are prepared to take further steps as necessary to ensure that inflation returns to target.’

The target of the BSP remains at 3-percentage average inflation plus or minus 1 percentage point tolerance range.