Category: Business Mirror

DESPITE a looming downward revision to this year’s economic growth target, economic managers are holding on to a 6-percent growth goal for next year, banking on governance cleanups to restore trust among the public and investors.

On the sidelines of the Senate plenary debates on next year’s national budget last Monday, Department of Economy, Planning and Development (DEPDev) Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan told reporters that the government is still sticking to its 6 to 7 percent growth target for 2026 to 2028.

‘I think we can go on with that. Because, as we have been saying, we have to learn the lessons that we have learned from this year to ensure that they won’t recur next year,’ Balisacan said.

A clean-up in governance and mechanisms, particularly in project planning, implementation and monitoring, will make the system more efficient, according to Balisacan.

‘I think 6 to 7 [percent] should be doable next year. But of course, that assumes that we can really address the issues that have faced us and confronted us,’ the country’s chief economist said.

Balisacan said the economy can still hit a 6-percent growth in the medium term to catch up with its neighbors in the region.

‘The potential of the economy is 6 to 7 percent. So if you are growing below that, you are underutilizing your capacity. You should grow and go back to that growth as soon as we can because otherwise, we won’t achieve the ‘AmBisyon Natin 2040,” Balisacan added.

Balisacan was the architect of the ‘AmBisyon Natin 2040’ when he served as Chief Economist at the tailend of the Benigno S. Aquino III administration. By 2040, the Philippines is envisioned to become a high-income country.

Meanwhile, outgoing Finance Secretary Ralph G. Recto is also expecting that the economy will expand by 5 to 6 percent next year, lower than the Cabinet-level Development Budget and Coordination Committee’s target.

‘Realistically, for next year, [the growth] will be from 5 to 6 [percent] because we’re coming from a low base. And then it will take some time, maybe a quarter, before we can go back to a regular growth rate,’ Recto told reporters.

The country’s fundamentals, Recto assured, are ‘okay,’ and by showing accountability, the trust and confidence of consumers and businessmen will be regained.

DBCC targets to be revised

Despite their optimism, the country’s economic managers will meet and review their macroeconomic targets.

‘There’s going to be a DBCC meeting to talk about the changes,’ Balisacan said, noting that the GDP target for this year is ‘quite likely’ to be revised.

‘Our concern is to ensure that we can mobilize all the resources that have been programmed for the year that are not included in the anomalous projects,’ Balisacan said.

The DBCC is composed of the principals of the Department of Budget and Management (DBM), DOF, DEPDev, as well as the Office of the President and the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas.

The role of the DBCC is primarily to review and approve the macroeconomic targets, revenue projections, borrowing level, aggregate budget level and expenditure priorities and recommend to the Cabinet and the President of the consolidated public sector financial position and the national government fiscal program.

Still, Balisacan remains optimistic that the economy will grow at least 5 percent in the fourth quarter this year.

Meanwhile, Recto said the economy will only expand by 4.7 percent to 4.8 percent in the fourth quarter, below the government’s target.

‘What we will miss is the growth rate, unfortunately. But moving forward, everything will be upside. Because we’ve already seen where the problems are,’ Recto added.

Recto: Deficit will be as target this year

The country’s deficit level, however, will be as target at P1.561 trillion this year, according to Recto.

‘Whatever our deficit target is for the year, including the debt, we’re not borrowing more than that,’ the outgoing Finance chief said.

Although the government failed to meet its revenue target in the third quarter, given the slowdown in economic growth, Recto said expenses will be reduced to still meet the deficit target.

‘We’re not reducing capital outlay,’ Recto cleared, but reducing the supplies, materials, as well as travel expenses will help lessen the costs for the government.

The government’s revenue collection reached P3.366 trillion as of end-September this year, up by 2.24 percent from P3.292 trillion a year ago.

This makes up 74.46 percent of the government’s full-year revenue target of P4.520 trillion.

If you’ve been living life in fast-forward, pausing only when your phone dies or when burnout finally catches you, here’s your invitation to slow down. Breathe. Step outside the scroll for a moment. Maybe even climb a mountain.

High above the clouds in Santa Maria, Laguna, the Santa Maria Music and Film Festival (SMMFF) is returning on December 6, 2025, ready to gather dreamers, wanderers, storytellers, and anyone craving a break from the noise. Set along the Sierra Madre ridgeline, the festival turns nature into a cinema, the sky becomes your ceiling, the mountains become your walls, and the wind carries the soundtrack. It’s a space where you can finally See What Others Can’t.

A Festival Built on a What-If

SMMFF didn’t begin as a huge production or a polished corporate baby. It started with one filmmaker, Jennifer Maliwanag, asking a simple, almost childlike question:

‘What if people watched films somewhere they could finally breathe?’

In 2023, she transformed her family’s mountain property into an open-air cinema not because it was easy (spoiler: it wasn’t), but because the idea felt alive. The trail was rugged, the wind unpredictable, and the logistics were definitely not for the weak-hearted. But when that first film played under the cold December sky, everything made sense.

Seven films. A handful of people. A ridge lined with jackets and blankets. And a quiet moment where everyone looked up and, for a second, saw what others couldn’t.

That night didn’t just entertain people. It moved them. It reminded them that stories feel different when you watch them closer to the clouds.

The 2025 Edition: Bigger Horizon, Same Heart

Now on its third year, SMMFF has grown but without losing the magic of the first climb. For 2025, the festival welcomes 39 finalist films from 17 countries, the strongest from a year-long cycle of selections. These films come from Japan, Korea, Italy, France, the U.S., Canada, Austria, Sweden, the Philippines, and more.

They’re stories that challenge, comfort, disrupt, heal, and question. Stories that remind you that the world is bigger than your feed, that there are perspectives, struggles, joys, and cultures waiting outside your usual screen. These are films you watch when you’re ready to See What Others Can’t.

Only the year’s winners will be screened on the mountaintop, keeping the evening tight, intentional, and powerful.

Why It Feels Like Home Up Here

Because it’s the opposite of the city rush.

The opposite of deadlines.

The opposite of noise.

Here, nothing feels forced. No one’s trying to impress you. Nobody cares about your OOTD. You’re all just humans sitting on a ridge watching stories unfold with Mt. Banahaw, Mt. Cristobal, Mt. Sembrano, Laguna de Bay, and the Pililla windmills quietly standing guard.

The light shifts. The air gets colder. Your phone’s notifications fade into the background. And suddenly, it’s just you, the sky, and the kind of stories that hit deeper when you’re far above everything else.

It’s the perfect space to disconnect from the world and reconnect with yourself.

Your Guide for the Night

December 6, 2025

4:00 PM – 8:30 PM

Santa Maria Open Air Cinema, 143 Summit, Brgy. Pao-o, Santa Maria, Laguna

Free with advance registration (limited seating)

Bring:

A light jacket (it will get cold), comfy shoes (this is a mountain!), and a refillable bottle for the hydration stations.

Come early. Stay late. The best moments often happen in the quiet parts before and after the show.

Meet the Team Behind the Climb

Jennifer Maliwanag – Festival Director

Multi-awarded filmmaker whose work pushes Filipino creativity to new heights.

Rex Lopez – Producer and Creative Lead

A seasoned creative shaping narrative and production with global experience.

Jerico Maliwanag – Film Creator and Communications Lead

Storyteller, editor, and the mind behind the festival’s visual identity.

See What Others Can’t, Literally

SMMFF isn’t just an event. It’s a reminder to slow down, look up, and let yourself feel something real. To witness stories in a place where the world feels quieter, kinder, and more possible.

If you’ve been waiting for a sign to pause.this is it.

Sign up for your free ticket. Come see what others can’t.

IN September 2023, Australia launched our blueprint for increasing two-way trade and investment with Southeast Asia in ‘Invested: Australia’s Southeast Asia Economic Strategy to 2040.’

Invested 2040 was born out of a simple truth: that Australia’s security is linked to Southeast Asia’s economic prosperity. Now with over two years since the strategy’s launch, it is time to reflect on what we’ve achieved, and what more we can do.

The international landscape has changed considerably since 2023, with increased uncertainty, unprecedented disruptions to global trade, and heightened geopolitical tensions. At times like these, we all need to increase and diversify our trade and investment networks. Strengthening our commercial engagement helps to sustain and increase regional prosperity and resilience.

Australia is committed to the rules-based multilateral trading system, while remaining a strong advocate for free, fair and open trade. As an Asean Dialogue Partner for over 50 years and a Strategic Partner to the Philippines, we are a reliable partner that this country, and Southeast Asia can count on.

Australia is fully committed to boosting economic ties with the Philippines. Our bilateral trade reached over P400 billion last year. Two-way investment also grew to nearly P300 billion in 2024, including Philippine investments in Australian renewable energy and port infrastructure.

This year, we successfully upgraded Asean’s highest quality trade agreement-the Agreement Establishing the Asean-Australia-New Zealand Free Trade Area, which will hike market access, reduce business costs, and foster greater trade and investment.

We are working hard to grow these numbers further. Our countries recently agreed to expand air services from 35 to 60 flights per week, with a further increase to 70 flights in 2026. In December, Jetstar will commence direct flights from Perth to Manila and establish a new Brisbane to Cebu route, strengthening our visitor economies. The opening of Western Sydney International Airport in 2026 will offer 24/7 operational flexibility to support Southeast Asia’s fast growing travel sector.

We’ve also improved visa access, including for Filipinos, by reducing red tape and making it easier for Southeast Asian companies to do business in Australia.

Australia’s Business Champion for the Philippines Shemera Wikramanayake launched ‘Invested: The Philippines to 2040-Opportunities and Pathways for Australian Investors.’ This report explains to prospective Australian companies why they should invest here. It highlights the Philippines’ economic strengths, reforms, and opportunities for Australian investors in resources, infrastructure, green energy, education and skills, the digital economy and agribusiness.

Our efforts are translating into groundbreaking Australian investment in the Philippine energy, resources and services sectors. For example, President Marcos Jr. recently awarded four exploration licences to Australian oil and gas companies to help strengthen the local energy security. Our investors have funded this country’s first lithium-ion battery manufacturing plant.

But more can be done to increase Australian investment. Over the last 18 months, the embassy has held seven business missions to raise awareness about opportunities in the Philippine education, mining and energy sectors. We are seeing promising opportunities in the digital economy, education, and infrastructure sectors.

Last month, Australia’s Prime Minister Albanese announced two more investments under Southeast Asia Investment Financing Facility to support Australian investment into the region: an AU$175 million equity investment into Industry Fund Management’s Investors’ Asia-Pacific Fund, and a AU$77-million equity investment to assist Plenary in establishing a new Southeast Asia private-public partnership platform fund for greenfield infrastructure projects across Southeast Asia, including the Philippines.

That is why Invested 2040 is in our mutual interests. Through international trade and investment, we gain the goods, ideas, and efficiencies to strengthen our economies and build opportunity and prosperity together.

THE Embassy of Switzerland in Manila successfully conducted the third edition of the ‘Day of the Future’ on November 13 across the country.

Held every second Thursday of November, this year’s Day of the Future brought together Swiss companies, Filipino students, and educators for a nationwide celebration of career discovery and vocational inspiration.

The DOF is an annual initiative in Switzerland, known locally as Nationaler Zukunftstag, where young learners are immersed in real workplace environments to gain

insights into future career paths. In the Philippines, the program is implemented under the Swiss Cultural Fund, which supports and promotes cultural, educational, and youth-focused initiatives.

Now in its third year in the local setting, the Day of the Future continues to expand its reach and impact. Along with the Embassy of Switzerland, the following Swiss companies simultaneously opened their doors to more public school students across the archipelago: Endress+Hauser, Roche Philippines, Holcim Philippines, Novartis Philippines, SGS, Partners Group and Sateco.

Each firm designed its own full-day program featuring workplace tours, interactive demonstrations, hands-on activities, and mentorship sessions, allowing learners to directly experience a variety of professional fields: from science and engineering to finance, pharmaceuticals, and advanced manufacturing.

‘More than a corporate social responsibility function of Swiss companies operating in the Philippines, we hope this tradition would eventually be embraced by more local firms. The Day of the Future is an ideal avenue for exposing our learners to formal office settings, while arousing their curiosity about professional life and appreciating the Swiss culture of work in the country,’ said the embassy’s Senior Project Manager and Assistant to the Ambassador Diana Chan, who led the activity’s rollout in Partners Group.

These Philippine-based activities were conducted in parallel with the programs held in Switzerland, reinforcing the shared commitment of both countries to empowering the next generation.

This year’s Day of the Future was organized in close collaboration with the Department of Education, whose support was instrumental in selecting participating public schools nationwide and ensuring that students were able to fully engage in the day’s activities. It received the embassy’s appreciation for its continued partnership in strengthening educational opportunities for Filipino learners.

At its core, the Day of the Future aims to highlight the importance of vocational training-a cornerstone of Switzerland’s globally recognized education system. By exposing young Filipinos to diverse professions and real-world work environments, the initiative seeks to broaden their career horizons and encourage them to explore multiple paths to success.

The Swiss Embassy and the Swiss Cultural Fund remain committed to supporting youth development through programs that promote curiosity, practical learning, and future-ready skills. With each edition, the Day of the Future continues to grow as a meaningful bridge between Swiss expertise and Filipino potential, according to the embassy.

November 14, 2025. In a landmark move for Filipino entrepreneurship, Luxe Beauty and Wellness Ventures Corp. announced that its flagship brand, Luxe Slim, is now officially available in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, through a strategic alliance partnership with ZK Summit Holdings Inc.

The announcement was made during a press conference held at Luxent Hotel, Quezon City, where company executives unveiled plans to make the brand’s signature wellness products more accessible to global consumers.

A Collaboration Driven by Purpose

The Dubai expansion is made possible by KPC Importation Services – Dubai, under ZK Summit Holdings Inc., founded by Ms. Mary Cruz, PhD, DBA, MAEd, LPT, and Co-Founder Mr. Khelvin P. Cruz, CPA, MBA. Their strong leadership and business expertise play a major role in Luxe Slim’s successful entry into the UAE market.

‘Before silang pumasok sa isang bagay, kailangan sigurado sila. That’s why I am very grateful din na the fact na nakipagpartner sila with us, it means ganun sila katiwala that LuxeSlim is really going global.’

– Ms. Anna Magkawas, President, Luxe Beauty and Wellness Corp.

Luxe Slim has become a trusted name in wellness, offering healthy slimming coffee, slimming juices, and beauty smoothies that empower individuals to maintain a healthy and active lifestyle.

A New Chapter for Global Wellness

The Dubai expansion marks a new era for Luxe Slim-one where Filipino brands stand confidently alongside global leaders in the health and beauty sector. This milestone reflects the power of collaboration, authenticity, and a shared passion for holistic wellness.

‘In terms of the Filipino community in Dubai, Luxe Beauty and Wellness, matutulungan nila ang mga kababayan natin doon na hindi mag-work forever. Since si Luxe marami na silang napayaman dito sa Pilipinas, pwede nila maging stepping stone ito para umalis na sila sa work at mag-business sila.’

– Managing Director, ZK Summit Holdings Inc. – Dubai and KPC Importation Services Dubai

‘Let’s now open the doors for OFWs to transform their hard work abroad into long-term negosyo and generational wealth through LuxeSlim.’

AMBASSADOR Massimo Santoro, the European Union’s envoy to the Philippines, doesn’t just represent 27 nations-conducting them like a grand opera company.

In Manila, where diplomacy demands both discipline and artistry, Santoro has become the ‘maestro’ of sorts of a sprawling ensemble, ensuring that every voice-from the sopranos of sustainability to the tenors of security-blends into one resonant performance.

After spending more than seven years at the EU headquarters in Brussels, he deliberately chose Asia as his next stage.

‘I wish to be [here], because I didn’t know it,’ he recalls.

Now, he leads a delegation of 43 personnel in Manila, supported by a chorus of 19 resident embassies of Belgium, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Germany, Ireland, Greece, Spain, France, Italy, Hungary, Malta, the Netherlands, Austria, Poland, Romania, Slovenia, Finland, Sweden, and Norway.

Together, they form a formidable diplomatic opera troupe, reinforcing Manila’s role as one of Asia’s most important European stages.

The art of consensus: An opera without discord

SANTORO’S ‘maestro’ title was given in jest, but it fits well.

Asked how he manages the complexities of coordinating 27 nations, he simply laughed a bit: ‘Wow.for myself, that’s torture. [And I seem to] love that.’

Like an opera conductor, his role is not to silence, but to synchronize. He describes EU’s ambassadors in Manila as ‘very strong and solid,’ and rarely needing to call for a formal vote on matters of discussion or digression.

‘I never have a single votation.it’s such a good dialogue,’ he quips.

This mirrors the bloc’s broader foreign policy tradition. Under the Common Foreign and Security Policy, decisions are usually made by unanimity-every voice must sing the same note before the curtain rises.

In rare, exceptional cases, the EU allows qualified majority voting-a ‘different tempo’-where at least 55 percent of member states, and representing 65 percent of the EU’s population, must agree.

It is in this operatic discipline that Santoro thrives.

‘The fact that the group is very compact is known to [our headquarters],’ he explained. ‘This means that whenever I propose some possible ideas, they know these are already locally backed.’

Policy in unison: A ‘libretto’ of values

ON foreign policy, Santoro insists that unity is instinctive.

‘By definition, around the table, all completely agree,’ he says. ‘The debate is never about whether to act, but how.’

The EU’s stance is rooted in defending a rules-based international order. The EU envoy explains that ‘we are in favor of the international order-not anti-somebody.’

Whether addressing Russia’s aggression in Ukraine or tensions in the West Philippine Sea/South China Sea, the principle he says remains consistent: ‘The same one anywhere.’

Here, the EU’s libretto is clear: The score is written in favor of law, and not unilateral improvization.

Before issuing statements on maritime disputes, the EU aligns with ‘like-minded’ partners such as Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States-ensuring its ‘aria’ is part of a larger ensemble, rather than a lone voice.

Mindanao: A development area

SANTORO’S opera extends to Mindanao, where development cooperation is a central theme.

His ‘recipe for sustainability’ blends public support with private investment: ‘Public grants are important, but long-term success is done by [our development partners].’

Since 2020, the EU has committed some pound 140 million worth of assistance to the Southern Philippines, underscoring the region’s importance.

His first mission trip there was like an overture, setting the tone for an extended performance. He witnessed firsthand how EU programs support normalization for former combatants in the Bangsamoro Region-helping them transition from conflict to livelihoods.

‘Taken away from fighting and assigned to a specific project, they make their own money-thanks to something not related to fighting,’ the EU envoy explained.

Cultural exchange: The ambassador’s solo

THE ambassador from Italy is equally passionate about making the EU accessible to Filipinos, especially the youth. His team travels to the provinces, engages with universities, and collaborates with influencers because, as he puts it, ‘social media is very important.’

A polyglot-fluent in Italian, English, French, and Russian-he has also begun learning Filipino.

‘Mahirap, pero interesanteng wika (It’s a difficult language to learn, but interesting),’ he says with a smile.

He admits the language’s complexity, with its numerous prefixes and infixes, poses a challenge, but learning them gives ‘meaningful respect for where you are.’

For him, diplomacy is not just a career, but ‘a kind of mission.’ He thrives on interaction, as ‘I tend to be a very social person. it’s [all] about people.’

Outside the halls of diplomacy, Santoro has embraced Philippine life.

He has snorkeled with his family in Coron, Palawan, savored Baguio’s strawberries, and even braved sampling durian by convincing himself that it tasted like cheese.

He laughs about Filipino sweet-style spaghetti-‘an abomination’-but celebrates the opening of a Filipino fast-food chain branch in the City of Milan as ‘another aspect of the Filipinos’ footprint.’

In all, Santoro’s work is less about wielding power, but rather on orchestrating harmony. Like an opera conductor guiding a troupe, he ensures that each of the EU’s 27 voices in the country sings in tune-never overpowering and always aligned.

The melody is one of shared values, the rhythm is dialogue, and the performance is a diplomatic opera staged across continents.

THE estimated overall damage from typhoons Tino and Uwan surged to over P4 billion, the Department of Agriculture (DA) said Tuesday.

In a statement, the DA said its latest estimates showed the storms caused farm damage worth P4.13 billion and wiped out around 19.2 million metric tons (MMT) of production across 43,882 hectares.

This affected crops, coconut farms, livestock and poultry, fisheries, agricultural infrastructure, and machinery.

As such, the DA said over 65,000 farmers across 14 regions are set to receive indemnification checks worth P571 million from the Philippine Crop Insurance Corp. (PCIC) as compensation for farm damage brought by typhoons Tino and Uwan.

PCIC President Jovy Bernabe said that about 65,176 insured farmers from 14 regions were affected by the two typhoons as of November 11. Most of the farmers cultivate rice, corn, and high-value crops.

Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel Jr. said this forms part of the government’s assistance package to help producers recover swiftly.

He added that wider crop insurance coverage is becoming increasingly critical as climate change intensifies the frequency and severity of extreme weather events.

‘Hopefully, more of our agricultural stakeholders can be covered by the PCIC so the sector can better cope with disasters,’ Tiu Laurel said.

The DA said initial assessments indicate losses of around P147.3 million for rice, P55.6 million for corn, and P224.3 million for high-value crops.

Bicol region recorded the highest number of claimants at 10,958, with potential payouts estimated at P119.4 million, according to the agency.

Bernabe noted that regional PCIC teams would extend assistance on the field and expedite claims processing to prevent cash-flow disruptions for affected farmers.

‘We have issued strict instructions to our regional staff to continue assisting farmers and speed up the processing of their damage claims,’ he said.

HIGHLY urbanized cities (HUCs) generated an estimated P9.78 trillion in total economic output in 2024, according to new figures from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA).

The latest Provincial Product Accounts results showed that HUCs accounted for 44 percent of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP).

Manila joined Quezon City and Makati in the group of HUCs posting trillion-peso economies, with Quezon City contributing the largest share to the national GDP at 6 percent. It was followed by Makati with 5.4 percent and Manila with 4.7 percent.

Rounding out the 10 biggest contributors were Taguig at 3 percent; Davao City, 2.6 percent; Pasig, 2.3 percent; Parañaque, 1.65 percent; Pasay, 1.61 percent; Cebu City, 1.5 percent; and Mandaluyong, 1.4 percent. Together, these cities made up 30.5 percent of national output.

In terms of growth, Puerto Princesa posted the strongest annual expansion at 9.8 percent. It was followed by Iligan at 8.8 percent; Butuan, 8.7 percent; Tacloban, 8.2 percent; and Davao City, 7.9 percent.

The next five cities with the fastest increases were Bacolod at 7.7 percent; Makati, 7.35 percent; Malabon, 7.27 percent; Iloilo City, 7.1 percent; and Cebu City, 7 percent.

All HUCs recorded growth in 2024 compared with the previous year, with every city in the top ten outpacing the 5.7-percent national GDP growth rate.

The PSA said the compilation of Provincial Product Accounts had been carried out across all regions starting 2024.

The system was formally adopted in 2025 following the approval of a PSA Board resolution.

The Department of Labor and Employment (DOLE) has allocated P40.48 million in emergency employment aid for workers affected by Typhoon ‘Uwan’ in Cagayan Valley.

In a statement on Monday, DOLE-Region II said the amount will fund the Tulong Panghanapbuhay sa Ating Disadvantaged/Displaced Workers (TUPAD) program for more than 7,000 beneficiaries whose jobs or livelihoods were disrupted by the typhoon.

TUPAD is a short-term emergency employment program that provides temporary income relief to workers affected by disasters, economic shocks, or displacement.

Under the scheme, beneficiaries will be deployed for 10 to 20 days of community-based work, including clearing debris, removing fallen trees, conducting minor repairs, and assisting in other early recovery activities in their localities.

They will also be paid based on the highest prevailing minimum wage in the region.

According to DOLE-Region II Director Jesus Elpidio B. Atal Jr., the regional office is prioritizing assistance for workers whose incomes were interrupted by Uwan.

He said emergency employment continues to be one of the agency’s fastest interventions during calamities.

Provincial offices have been directed to coordinate with local government units to profile affected workers, validate lists, conduct orientations, and ensure the timely payout of wages.

Beneficiaries are expected to begin their assignments once these preparatory steps are completed.

Most recent data from the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) showed that nearly 1.40 million residents in Cagayan Valley were affected by Typhoon Uwan.

A total of 124 cities and municipalities in the region also suspended work as the storm swept through Northern Luzon.

When Donald Trump and Xi Jinping met in Busan, South Korea on October 30, the Chinese leader called Trump a ‘helmsman’ and praised his statesmanship. You might wonder if Xi was being sincere or simply trying to be polite. After all, this is the same Trump who threatened 100 percent tariffs just weeks earlier, only to settle for a truce that, according to industry sources, brought tariff levels down to roughly 47 percent on Chinese goods and 33 percent on American products.

Perhaps the sweet talk worked. China agreed to pause rare earth export controls, curb fentanyl precursor chemicals flowing into the United States, and buy American soybeans. In return, Washington suspended port fees on Chinese ships and relaxed the 50 percent rule barring exports to companies majority-owned by restricted Chinese entities.

While Xi has praised other leaders during tense summits, Dennis Wilder, a former senior US national security official, noted he had never heard Xi flatter an American president before. Alexander Campbell, formerly of Bridgewater Associates, estimates that due to China’s property crisis, its banks need a lifeline of roughly US$1 trillion each year, supported by a trade surplus of similar size. This is existential, almost life-or-death economics.

Trump’s chaos-as-strategy forced China to reveal its strongest card: rare earth minerals. Beijing controls roughly 69 percent of rare earth mine production and more than 90 percent of processing capacity, according to the latest industry reports. By making its restrictions global rather than bilateral, China scared other countries into seeking alternatives.

For Philippine businesses, the Trump-Xi dance offers uncomfortable lessons. The Philippines exported tens of millions of metric tons of nickel ore to China in 2024, accounting for the vast majority of our nickel exports, according to industry estimates. That concentration leaves our mining sector extremely exposed if China cuts steel production to manage its property crisis and trade pressures, potentially causing sharp revenue drops, layoffs, and long-term supply chain disruptions for Philippine exporters. Nickel prices have remained narrowly trapped for months amid trade tension, translating into revenue uncertainty for Nickel Asia, Global Ferronickel, and every mining operation in Surigao and Palawan.

The semiconductor sector faces similar exposure. Electronics products account for a significant share of our exports, and the Semiconductor and Electronics Industries in the Philippines expects only modest growth in 2025, reflecting ongoing global competition, supply chain disruptions, and tariff uncertainties.

That projection predates Trump’s discussions of additional tariffs on microchips. When Trump and Xi trade blows, our assembly and testing facilities risk losing orders as supply chains fragment.

The business response should be immediate. Nickel exporters need to lock 3-to-5-year supply contracts with Japanese and South Korean steel mills before the next trade escalation. These contracts should include price floors tied to London Metal Exchange benchmarks to hedge against volatility, so companies can price ore properly instead of shipping raw ore at commodity rates while China captures the processing premium.

Yes, diversifying suppliers and buyers means upfront outlays, but getting caught in the tariff crossfire costs more.

These tactical moves reflect a deeper lesson: predictability costs money when dealing with China. When the Philippines won its arbitral case over the South China Sea in 2016, China ignored it and continued building artificial islands. Duterte then spent six years seeking Chinese investment, receiving promises for infrastructure projects. China delivered two projects, both incomplete.

When Indonesia banned nickel ore exports in 2020 to force domestic processing, China scrambled for alternative suppliers. The Philippines could have used that moment to negotiate better terms: processing partnerships, technology transfers, or higher prices for refined products rather than shipping raw ore.

Instead, Manila kept shipping ore at commodity rates while Indonesia built a $22 billion nickel processing industry. We have leverage but refuse to use it, fearing Chinese retaliation. Yet we experience Chinese economic pressure anyway. China reduced Philippine banana imports by roughly 39 percent in 2024, according to preliminary government reports. Being predictably cooperative did not protect our exporters.

The window for adaptation narrows as Trump and Xi maneuver toward their next confrontation. Wilder sees the current truce as a ‘tactical pause’ with details pending. Philippine businesses should prepare for renewed turbulence rather than assume stability will return.

China responds to leverage and uncertainty more than it responds to patience and protocol. Trump forced Beijing to show its rare earth card prematurely, accelerating global diversification efforts. The Philippines should study that sequence instead of repeating Duterte’s mistake of assuming goodwill produces results. We have tried cordial relations for years. The Philippine trade deficit and empty Chinese promises speak for themselves-deceptively quiet, vicious in impact.