WITH the country’s economic growth slowing sharply in the third quarter, economists said fiscal policy execution-especially how the government spends-will be crucial in determining the economy’s performance through 2025.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded by 4 percent year-on-year from July to September, down from 5.5 percent in the previous quarter and 5.2 percent in the same period last year, according to the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA).
Jonathan Ravelas of Reyes Tacandong and Co. said he had expected a stronger 5.6 percent full-year growth but warned that spending delays could stall recovery. ‘For now, monitor fiscal policy execution closely. If spending remains subdued, private sector resilience and investment will be critical to sustaining growth,’ he said in a Viber message.
Meanwhile, UnionBank chief economist Carlo Asuncion attributed the slowdown to tighter financial conditions, weaker government expenditure and persistent external headwinds.
‘Household consumption remained resilient, but weak capital formation and subdued exports underscore the need for stronger public investment and targeted support for trade-sensitive sectors,’ he said.
He added that, ‘Nevertheless, we expect growth to regain momentum, though risks from global demand and fiscal constraints remain.’
From the demand side, household spending grew by 4.1 percent in the third quarter, while government expenditure rose 5.8 percent. Exports climbed 7 percent, and imports grew 2.6 percent, but investment, or gross capital formation, fell by 2.8 percent.
Private consumption accounted for 74 percent of GDP growth, though its contribution, 3 percentage points, was the lowest since the pandemic.
On the other hand, soft spending and weak investment were the main drags, per ING economists, prompting the bank to cut its 2025 growth forecast to 4.7 percent from 5.2 percent.
They also expect the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) to trim policy rates by 25 basis points in December.
On one hand, Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. chief economist Michael Ricafort said the third-quarter slowdown, the weakest in over four years, reflected the impact of recent typhoons, floods and earthquakes that disrupted business operations.
The Q3 2025 GDP brings the year-to-date average to 5 percent, below the government’s 5.5 to 6.5 percent target.
The Philippines’s performance also lagged behind most of its regional peers such as Taiwan, South Korea and Vietnam, where growth accelerated.
Corruption, tariffs continue to weigh
Political uncertainty and tariff changes have deepened the drag on investment, per analysts.
Global macroeconomic firm Capital Economics said that public investments plunged 26 percent year-on-year in the third quarter following the investigation into anomalous flood-control projects mentioned in President Marcos’ State of the Nation Address last July 25.
The decline also rippled through construction and household consumption.
‘Even if large-scale political unrest is avoided, a broadening of the anti-corruption drive could prolong the slowdown,’ the firm said, warning that uncertainty may delay new projects and public procurement.
ING also pointed to the combined effects of the corruption probe and tariff changes. The Philippines’ tariff rate, initially set at 17 percent, was raised to 19 percent in July, erasing its trade advantage within Asean.
‘Corruption scandals put government spending under intense scrutiny, leading to a sharp pullback in investments,’ ING said.
For Ricafort, investor confidence could recover if governance and sustainability reforms are implemented.
For its part, the Department of Finance described the third-quarter slowdown as ‘a temporary hiccup’ caused by underspending and assured that fiscal reforms and more efficient infrastructure budgeting will drive a stronger rebound in 2026. (See: https://businessmirror.com.ph/2025/11/08/infra-fiascos-impact-q3-growth-a-mere-4/)
Lowering expectations?
Ravelas has revised his growth forecasts to 5.3 percent for 2025 and 5.6 percent for 2026, reflecting slower fiscal momentum.
Asuncion, meanwhile, said easing inflation and a more accommodative stance from the BSP could cushion the economy. Inflation held at 1.7 percent in October-unchanged from September and below the 2.3 percent posted a year ago.
Ricafort noted that average GDP growth from January to September stood at 5 percent, but quarter-on-quarter expansion slowed to 0.4 percent. Moreover, investments, agriculture and government spending declined, though exports rose 1.4 percent.
He said holiday spending and improved weather could lift growth in the final quarter.
Capital Economics also expects two more 25-basis-point rate cuts within the current cycle, while ING said subdued public spending may continue to temper growth despite a likely rebound in consumption and agriculture.