THE hypothetical 2028 tandem of Vice President Sara Duterte and Sen. Robinhood ‘Robin’ Padilla continues to lead the pairing of Naga City Mayor Maria Leonor ‘Leni’ Robredo and Sen. Paolo Benigno ‘Bam’ Aquino IV.
Nonetheless, its advantage has narrowed substantially, according to the latest Tugon ng Masa (TNM) survey of OCTA Research.
The Duterte-Padilla tandem registered 48 percent of the national voter preference, compared with 36 percent for the Robredo-Aquino tandem, giving the former a 12-percentage-point lead. Another 16 percent of respondents remained undecided.
OCTA pointed out that the 12-point gap is the narrowest recorded between the two hypothetical tandems to date, pointing to a continuing tightening of the potential 2028 matchup.
In previous commissioned surveys conducted in 2025, the gap between Duterte-Padilla and Robredo-Aquino ranged from approximately 20 to 25 percentage points. The latest result therefore represents a substantial reduction in the lead enjoyed by the Duterte-Padilla tandem, according to OCTA.
The survey results provide an early indication that the hypothetical contest could become more competitive as the 2028 elections approach. However, the figures remain a snapshot of voter preferences nearly two years before the scheduled elections and should not be treated as an election forecast.
The latest findings also come amid other signs of movement in the Duterte-Robredo political matchup. In a separate Q2 2026 TNM survey, Duterte led Robredo in a hypothetical presidential head-to-head matchup by 43 percent to 34 percent, a nine-point margin that was down from 11 points in the first quarter. OCTA said the national movement was modest, with Duterte’s support declining while the undecided or uncommitted bloc increased.
The survey data also showed that voter preferences vary depending on the vice-presidential partner paired with each potential presidential candidate. Earlier Q2 results involving Robredo and Sen. Raffy Tulfo versus Duterte and Sen. Imee Marcos, for example, showed Robredo-Tulfo at 45 percent and Duterte-Marcos at 42 percent, a three-point difference that OCTA described as statistically a toss-up given the survey’s margin of error.
For the Duterte-Padilla versus Robredo-Aquino matchup, however, the latest national figures remain separated by 12 points.
The Q2 2026 TNM survey, according to OCTA, was conducted through face-to-face interviews from July 4 to 11 among 1,200 male and female probability respondents aged 18 and above. It has a national margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points at a 95-percent confidence level. Subnational estimates for Metro Manila, Balance Luzon, the Visayas and Mindanao have a margin of error of plus or minus six percentage points.
OCTA described the TNM as an independent, non-partisan and non-commissioned nationwide survey that it conducts regularly and releases as a public service.
With 16 percent of respondents still undecided in the Duterte-Padilla versus Robredo-Aquino hypothetical matchup, OCTA said the latest survey leaves a substantial portion of the electorate outside either tandem. It said the narrowing from the 20-to-25-point margins recorded in 2025 nevertheless marks a notable shift in the relative standing of the two pairings.
OCTA said the figures underscore that while Duterte-Padilla remains ahead in this particular hypothetical contest, the distance between the two tandems has contracted significantly from earlier measurements.