Avery strong El Niño could unleash a chain of food, water, health and livelihood crises through 2027, prompting authorities to step up early interventions and contingency planning to prevent severe shortages from triggering broader social disruptions in drought-hit communities.
Government agencies and United Nations organizations on Thursday warned that the looming climate phenomenon could set off cascading impacts across food production, water supply, public health, energy security and livelihoods, particularly in vulnerable communities already coping with poverty and recurring disasters.
The warning comes as the Niño-3.4 index, a key indicator of warming in the tropical Pacific Ocean, surged to an unprecedented 3.7 degrees Celsius above average, according to the Department of Science and Technology-Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (DOST-PAGASA).
While the term ‘super El Niño’ is widely used, PAGASA said the official classification remains a ‘very strong El Niño.’
For the Philippines, the climate event is expected to unfold in two stages.
According to Ana Liza Solis, chief of PAGASA’s Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section, the country has already experienced the first phase through enhanced southwest monsoon rains that brought flooding and heavy rainfall in several areas during recent months.
The next phase is expected to be more prolonged, marked by suppressed rainfall, extreme heat and worsening drought conditions that could persist into 2027.
‘In the Philippines, a very strong El Niño means facing a severe two-phase climate crisis, with heavy rains followed by intense drought and extreme hot temperatures through 2027,’ Solis said.
PAGASA forecasts below-normal rainfall in most parts of the country until at least May next year, with western sections of Luzon, Mimaropa, Panay, parts of the Visayas and Mindanao among the areas most exposed to prolonged dry spells.
As of October 19, the weather bureau had recorded nine provinces under meteorological drought, 30 under dry-spell conditions and 14 under dry conditions. Areas already experiencing drought include Albay, Camarines Sur, Camarines Norte, Eastern Samar, Siquijor and Misamis Oriental.
The effects are already beginning to emerge.
Solis said reports from local stakeholders indicate that parts of Siquijor and Camarines Norte are experiencing water stress and water scarcity. Water regulators have likewise reduced allocations from Angat Dam as part of efforts to stretch supplies serving Metro Manila.
‘We still have rain, so we need to catch the rain using our balde. But once we don’t have rain, we need to use tabo,’ she said, urging households to conserve water while supplies remain stable.
Agriculture is expected to be among the hardest-hit sectors.
Officials cited Department of Agriculture (DA) projections showing agricultural losses could reach P20 billion, potentially affecting between 2.8 million and 4.6 million farmers, fisherfolk and other food producers.
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Dulce Carandang, assistant representative for programme of the Food and Agriculture Organization Philippines, said preparations need to begin long before drought conditions intensify.
Drawing lessons from a drought-response project in Isabela during the 2023-2024 El Niño, Carandang said every dollar invested in anticipatory action generated roughly seven dollars in avoided losses.
Government agencies and development partners are promoting climate-smart agriculture, crop diversification, solar-powered irrigation systems and localized climate advisories to help farmers adapt to increasingly unpredictable weather patterns.
Health officials warned that the consequences extend well beyond farms and reservoirs.
Olivia Lawe Davies, deputy representative of the World Health Organization in the Philippines, said prolonged drought and extreme heat could increase cases of heat exhaustion, heat stroke, malnutrition, dengue and water-borne diseases while straining health-care facilities.
‘We’re really talking about preparedness and not alarm,’ she said. ‘When we have early warning, the key is to use it.’
Children are expected to be among the most vulnerable.
Andreas Wuestenberg, officer-in-charge representative of UNICEF Philippines, noted that more than 97 percent of Filipino children are exposed to multiple climate-related hazards. He said particular attention should be given to the estimated 5.9 million children already living in poverty, whose families have fewer resources to cope with prolonged drought and rising food insecurity.
The United Nations also highlighted another consequence of worsening climate shocks: displacement.
Tristan Burnett, chief of mission of the International Organization for Migration in the Philippines, said climate-related disasters and livelihood losses are increasingly influencing migration and displacement decisions.
‘The Philippines remains one of the countries most affected by disaster displacement globally,’ Burnett said.
He stressed that resilience measures should allow families to remain safely in their communities rather than being forced to relocate because of climate-related pressures.
The issue of social tensions surfaced during the briefing when reporters asked officials about worst-case scenarios should drought conditions worsen significantly.
Jose Harry Barber, officer-in-charge of the Office of Civil Defense’s Disaster Resilience Service, said scenarios such as civil unrest are part of standard contingency planning but emphasized that authorities are not seeing warning signs of such developments.
‘I saw that in my crystal ball, which is lowbatt [low battery],’ Barber joked. ‘It is template planning. No red flag yet.’
Solis noted though that severe drought conditions during the 2015-2016 El Niño contributed to unrest in Kidapawan, underscoring the importance of acting early before shortages become acute.
For officials, the lesson from previous El Niño events is not to wait until reservoirs run low, crops fail and communities begin to feel the full impact.
Instead, the focus is on translating forecasts into action.
The government has activated a nationwide response involving agencies responsible for agriculture, water management, disaster preparedness and social protection, while UN agencies are supporting anticipatory action programs, climate-risk forecasting, cash assistance and resilience-building initiatives.
Officials repeatedly stressed that while the forecasts are concerning, the goal is to prevent a climate shock from evolving into a humanitarian crisis.
‘Climate shocks do not have to become a humanitarian crisis,’ Burnett said. ‘We have the science, we have the forecasts, we have the knowledge, and we have the tools to act early.’