Category: Daily Monitor

In President Donald Trump’s crusade to bring Greenland under the control of the United States, he has repeatedly invoked the danger posed by a Chinese or Russian takeover of the massive resource-rich, icebound island.

In a speech to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, on Wednesday, Trump described Greenland – which is part of Denmark, a NATO ally – as an ‘almost entirely uninhabited and undeveloped territory, sitting undefended in a key strategic location between the United States, Russia and China.’

Experts on China’s Arctic, defense and foreign policies say that Beijing has neither the ability nor any obvious plans to imminently conquer the island of 57,000 people that sits around 4,800 miles away from Chinese waters, beyond the ice sheets of the North Pole.

What Beijing does have, however, these analysts said, is wide-ranging ambition to expand its presence across the Arctic region in ways that pose new security concerns for Europe and North America.

‘Naturally, Greenland features in China’s Arctic security agenda because it is important to U.S. and European security, just as it was in World War II,’ said Anne-Marie Brady, an expert on China’s polar policies at the University of Canterbury in New Zealand.

Rather than deterring Chinese activity, Trump’s showdown with Europe over his plans to annex Greenland will likely give Beijing an opening to reengage with Nordic countries that have become increasingly wary of Chinese activities, analysts said.

European nations have already shown they are willing to meet almost all U.S. demands short of handing over sovereignty – including strengthening Arctic security and allowing access to Greenland’s resources, said Adam Lajeunesse, an associate professor of public policy at St. Francis Xavier University in Nova Scotia, Canada.

But ‘a break in the relationship with the United States’ could get Arctic countries working with China again, Lajeunesse said.

Trump on Wednesday appeared to back down from his threat to impose tariffs on European allies when he announced a ‘framework’ deal to bolster security in Greenland and across the Arctic.

Why is China interested in the Arctic?

Despite the fact that China’s northernmost point sits 900 miles from the Arctic Circle, Beijing considers itself a ‘near-Arctic state’ and has been active in trying to shape international rules and norms governing activity in the region.

Beijing likes to emphasize the scientific, environmental and commercial dimensions of its Arctic ambitions, but it has also officially designated the region a ‘strategic new frontier’ to be secured under Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s drive to match U.S. military capabilities even in peripheral domains.

‘It’s very difficult to split the economic interests that China has from its strategic or security-driven interests,’ said Helena Legarda, an analyst at the Mercator Institute for China Studies, a Berlin-based think tank. ‘They’re all interlinked.’

As China’s economic interests in the region grow, so does its desire for a greater security footprint.

‘They want to first expand its presence through economic and scientific and diplomatic means,’ said Matti Puranen, an associate professor at the Finnish National Defense University in Helsinki. ‘Then, in the future, they could argue that they have to be able to also project military power in the region to safeguard those interests.’

How does Beijing view Trump’s plans for Greenland?

Beijing, which is angling to secure and extend a trade truce with the U.S. when Trump makes a state visit to China this spring, has tried to distance itself from the furor over Greenland’s future.

The U.S. should stop using the pretext of a ‘China threat’ to pursue its own interests, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson said on Thursday.

Chinese analysts, however, are hopeful that Trump’s brash tactics will demonstrate to Arctic nations that Beijing is the more reliable partner.

The U.S. revival of ‘imperial-style political logic’ is starkly different from China’s approach in the region, said Wang Chuanxing, a professor at the Center for Polar and Oceanic Studies at Tongji University. He described Beijing’s effort as ‘neither unilateral or exclusive but rather working within existing international rules.’

Chinese analysts have also voiced concern that Trump may want to revisit Greenland’s Cold War role as a secret base for American nuclear-armed bombers. That concern will only be heightened with Trump’s assertion Thursday that the U.S. would ‘have all military access that we want’ in Greenland under a new framework deal.

This is likely to be seen as a significant provocation and a reason for China to accelerate its already extensive efforts to match American nuclear weapons capabilities, including by developing nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines.

‘China remains highly alert to the possibility that the United States could use Greenland and its control over the Arctic to build forward bases’ that would improve U.S. abilities to launch ‘preemptive’ nuclear or conventional strikes on China, said Zhao Minghao, deputy director of the Center for American Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai.

What has China achieved in the Arctic?

After more than two decades of gradual progress, China is now on the cusp of establishing itself as an Arctic power.

From two permanent research bases in Norway and Iceland, and witha fleet of five research icebreakers, Chinese researchers have started pushing the boundaries of exploration below the sea ice.

Chinese researchers have also expanded efforts to map out fishing grounds, subsea oil and gas reserves, and critical mineral deposits along the underwater volcanic vents of the Gakkel Ridge, as part of global efforts to dominate deep-sea mining.

Over a 98-day mission last year, crewed submersibles completed 43 dives up to depths of 5,277 meters, in what state media hailed as a breakthrough for China’s ability to navigate and surface amid thick ice floes.

These increasingly advanced capabilities give Beijing an edge in the scramble for the control of resources and shipping lanes that are being made accessible as global warming melts ice caps.

They also come with security implications for the U.S. and other Arctic countries. Knowledge of seabed topography, weather patterns and ocean currents could be critical as China looks to expand its military presence in Arctic waters, including potentially patrols of nuclear-armed ballistic missile submarines.

As summer lengthening thins the ice, China has sent more ships through the Northern Sea Route that connects Asia to Europe via Russia’s northern coast, where Chinese companies have expanded infrastructure investment to help build what it calls the ‘Polar Silk Road.’

For now, the prospects of a trade boom are limited. Chinese container ships made 14 voyages along the route in 2025, up from 11 the year before and seven in 2023.

But, when the weather permits, the 20-day journey can take about half the time needed to send goods through the Strait of Malacca and the Suez Canal. That not only gives China faster access to European markets, but it also serves as a backup plan for accessing oil and gas if southern maritime choke points are one day blocked.

Does China have a presence in Greenland?

Despite Beijing’s growing presence elsewhere in the Arctic, Greenland is one place where Chinese companies have consistently failed to establish a foothold.

In 2017, Denmark, citing security concerns, rejected an attempted takeover of an abandoned naval base by a Chinese company. A Chinese bid to expand three airports was withdrawn in 2019 after it drew scrutiny from the Danish government. Several attempts by Chinese mining companies to extract iron ore or rare earth metals have stalled or been blocked by local authorities.

Across northern Europe, ‘the stated ambitions of Chinese investment into the Arctic and the number of proposed projects far superseded the number of realized projects,’ said Anders Christoffer Edstrom, a researcher at Nord University Business School in Norway who has studied these projects. ‘Greenland is a stark example of that.’

Where is China gaining its Arctic foothold?

When it began its foray into the Arctic, China hoped to partner with European nations. But Xi’s increasingly assertive foreign policy and his intensifying competition with the U.S. have led to far more scrutiny of Chinese deals in Europe,exacerbated by Beijing’sindirect support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

As a result, China’s Arctic activity has focused on the waters along Russia’s northern coast and around to Alaska. Russia’s historical resistance to partnering with Beijing in the region has waned as Moscow has become more dependent on Beijing for economic support and components with military applications to sustain its assault on Ukraine.

In early 2023, the China Coast Guard signed a deal with Russian counterparts to strengthen cooperation on maritime law enforcement in polar regions. The two countries have increasingly conducted joint patrols and research missions in areas of the Bering Sea northwest of Alaska patrolled by the U.S. Coast Guard.

There is plenty of room for future cooperation that would match Beijing’s industrial prowess with Russia’s Arctic experience. With Russian shipbuilders struggling to secure parts and financing, Beijing is well-placed to renovate or replace its aging icebreakers or provide components and investment in the small nuclear reactors used to power remote bases, analysts have said.

‘Previously, a big barrier to China maintaining a military presence in the Arctic was Russia,’ said Brady, the New Zealand academic. ‘Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, this barrier has been removed.’

The Uganda Medical Association (UMA) has urgently called on the government to grant incarcerated Opposition politician and medical professional, Dr Kizza Besigye, immediate and unrestricted access to specialised medical care. In a strongly worded January 22 statement signed by newly elected president, Dr Frank Asiimwe, the association expressed deep concern over the reported deterioration in Dr Besigye’s health.

‘We must recall that Dr Besigye is not only a seasoned national leader but a medical professional who played a gallant role in preserving the lives of our freedom fighters,’ UMA stated. ‘At a time when they had no other medical option(s) and their lives were in mortal danger, he availed his skills and laid down his life against all odds to ensure their survival,” the statement read.

Reflecting more deeply on the situation, the doctors highlighted the broader implications of what Dr Besigye,69, is going through. ‘Given this history of service and sacrifice, it is only fitting that his own medical dignity be upheld today. And if a doctor that has ever saved lives of people in power can be denied health care in his own country, at his old age, how confident can we be that we, that having treated millions of ‘nobodies’, when our time to need help comes, we will get the attention or sympathy of powerful people that know us not?’ the UMA statement reads in part. It adds: ‘Does our service and sacrifice even matter? Or is it other matters that really matter? Is it the good work we do now or the perceptions of our actions that could cross certain lines that really define the value of our lives?’ Last Tuesday, reports emerged of Dr Besigye’s urgent transfer from Luzira Prison to a medical facility in a critical state.

‘We strongly advocate for Dr Besigye to have unrestricted access to his personal physicians and specialised medical care,’ the UMA appealed. It added: ‘The State bears the responsibility for ensuring the health and physical well-being of all persons in its custody. This concern holds for all who are incarcerated, in government detention centres, their charges notwithstanding.’ Dr Besigye, a four-time presidential candidate, holds a Bachelor’s degree in Medicine and Surgery (MBChB) from Makerere University. He was President Museveni’s personal physician during the Bush War (1981 to 1986). Dr Besigye was arrested in Kenya in November 2024, and now faces charges of illegal possession of firearms, ammunition, and treachery, among others.

Demand for full internet restoration

In the same statement, UMA also asked the government to fully restore unrestricted internet access to the pre-election levels, warning that the ongoing disruptions are severely hampering healthcare delivery across the country. The UMA leadership said the restrictions have hindered critical functions such as coordination among healthcare facilities, telemedicine consultations, access to online medical resources, and real-time communication essential for patient care and emergency responses. ‘The recent disruptions to internet and mobile money services have created significant obstacles for the medical community.These are not just communication tools; they are public-health lifelines,” the statement reads in part.

On emergency referrals and financial access, UMA said the inability to share diagnostic images and specialist consultations via digital platforms ‘delays life-saving interventions’. ‘With mobile money being a primary payment method, restrictions hinder families from paying for emergency surgeries, medicines, and ambulance services in real-time,’ the UMA stated. It added: “We notice that these restrictions are slowly being eased, but they can currently be described as epileptic, and this is not good enough for delivery of 21st-century health care.’ Several internet users in Uganda continue to report an inability to access social media platforms or applications like WhatsApp, Twitter, and Facebook, about two weeks after the shutdown by the authorities. Some internet users are reportedly employing a Virtual Private Network (VPN), a technology that protects its users by encrypting their data and masking their IP addresses.

VPN hides their browsing activity, identity, and location, allowing for greater privacy and autonomy, and enabling access to some of the restricted websites or applications. For WhatsApp, sometimes a user in Uganda is able to see texts without using a VPN, but the user is often unable to download images and videos. This limitation on a widely used communication platform is concerning, especially for the medical community sharing information through pictures and images with senior colleagues or peers to aid diagnosis or treatment. The recently concluded general election on January 15, which included presidential and parliamentary polls, brought significant disruptions to daily life in a country heavily reliant on a cash-based economy, mobile money, and public transport.

In the days leading up to and during the election period, authorities imposed a nationwide internet shutdown, citing security concerns. Public transport, particularly long-distance bus companies that ferry patients to Kampala (home to major facilities like the Uganda Cancer Institute and other national referral hospitals), largely suspended operations due to safety fears amid heightened tensions and security concerns. These combined disruptions, including internet and mobile money (cash withdrawal), halted transport, and challenges accessing cash, created barriers to healthcare access, especially for vulnerable groups.

Police are investigating an attempted break-in at the Mukono Electoral Commission (EC) offices over the weekend, in which assailants reportedly targeted ballot boxes for Mukono North Constituency.

According to security sources, the attack appeared aimed at tampering with the ballot boxes to create grounds for a court petition seeking a recount.

The returning officer, Emily Amongin, had last week declared Abudallah Kiwanuka of the National Unity Platform (NUP), the incumbent, winner of the January 15, 2026 parliamentary elections with 15,017 votes, beating former minister Ronald Kibuule of the National Resistance Movement (NRM), who garnered 11,176 votes.

Police spokesperson Rachael Nakiwala confirmed the attempted attack, saying officers acted swiftly to prevent the suspects from entering the premises.

‘Our officers responded in time and successfully blocked the suspects from entering the Electoral Commission offices,’ Nakiwala said.

The situation was tense because the offices were in total darkness, according to authorities.

District Police Commander Benard Mugerwa reportedly led the response and blocked the suspects, while officers continued patrolling the area after the electricity supply to the premises was cut off.

On Monday, all elected members of parliament from Mukono district held a joint press conference condemning the attempted break-in.

‘We strongly condemn this attack and any attempts to interfere with the electoral process,’ one of the MP elects said.

The incident follows a controversial announcement last week by Amongin regarding the Mukono district LCV chairperson elections.

She initially declared Johnson Muyanja Ssenyonga of NUP the winner at around 3:00 pm, with 51,686 votes, defeating Francis Lukooya Mukoome of NRM, who received 50,254 votes, and independent Lauben Ssenyonjo, who got 2,995 votes.

Later, NRM leaders, led by District NRM chairperson Haruna Ssemakula, stormed the EC office shortly after Muyanja’s declaration.

They held Amongin in a separate room for several hours before she announced Lukooya as the winner, with 52,523 votes, while Muyanja received 52,105 and Ssenyonjo 3,095 votes.

Local NUP officials insist that Muyanja’s victory was legally obtained and vowed to defend it.

When President Museveni and his National Resistance Army (NRA) captured Kampala on January 26, 1986, they promised a ‘fundamental change’ from decades of coups, economic collapse, and State violence.

Forty years later, the National Resistance Movement (NRM) party remains in power, making it one of Africa’s longest-ruling political movements and Museveni the most consequential post-independence leader in Uganda. Mr Museveni’s grip on power was reaffirmed in the just-concluded January 15 presidential election, where he secured a seventh elective term after garnering 71.65 percent of the total votes cast. Daily Monitor takes a snap-look into the 40 years of the NRM, detailing its achievements and misses.

ICYMI: Mamdani’s bombshell book explodes Museveni, Amin myths

How has democracy evolved in the NRM reign?

39 years of the NRM: Fundamental change or chant in politics?

Revisiting Museveni ‘fundamental change’ speech

Economy

Uganda’s economy remains strong and resilient, with the government projecting accelerated growth over the medium term, driven largely by oil and gas production and sustained macroeconomic stability. The country was recently ranked seventh by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) among the world’s fastest-growing economies. In the 2025/2026 Financial Year, the economy is projected to grow by seven percent, rising to an average of at least eight percent annually over the next five years. With the onset of commercial oil and gas production expected in 2026, the government projects double-digit growth, including a 10.4 percent expansion in the 2026/2027 financial year.

In nominal terms, Uganda’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is estimated at Shs251.4 trillion (about $69.6 billion) in 2025/2026, while income per capita is projected to rise to $1,393 (Shs4.9 million), up from $1,263 (Shs4.4 million) last year. Export earnings grew by 26 per cent to $9.3 billion in the 12 months to March 2025. The shilling remains Africa’s most stable currency, appreciating by 6.1 per cent over the past year, supported by strong foreign direct investment, export growth, remittances, and disciplined monetary policy. Inflation stands at 3.6 per cent, among the lowest on the continent. Government attributes the growth outlook to targeted interventions, including capitalisation of the Uganda Development Bank, the Parish Development Model, Emyooga, and expanded support to small businesses, alongside improved revenue mobilisation and economic diversification.

Education

The NRM government introduced Universal Primary Education (UPE) in 1997, which abolished school fees and dramatically increased primary school enrolment from 2.2 million children in 1986 to over 5.3 million by 1997, and to more than 8 million in subsequent years. The government later introduced Universal Secondary Education (USE) to accommodate the increasing number of UPE graduates, further expanding access to education. Enrolment in secondary schools and universities has grown substantially over the decades. University enrolment, for example, rose from 5,390 students in 1986 to over 2 million by 2025, largely attributed to the increased number of universities.

The country, which had only one university in 1986, now has 12 public universities and about 45 private ones across all major regions. In addition, the number of schools has increased significantly, with efforts to ensure every parish has a government primary school and every sub-county a government seed secondary school. The government has progressively increased teacher numbers and salaries across different levels of education, especially for science teachers, aiming to improve teacher attendance and motivation.

A new competence-based curriculum for lower secondary education was rolled out in 2020, shifting focus from memorisation to the practical application of knowledge. Further, the government introduced the ‘Skilling the Girl Child’ programme that aims to empower underprivileged and vulnerable girls aged 15-30 with free, practical vocational skills such as tailoring, hairdressing, baking, and weaving to foster self-reliance, create jobs, reduce poverty, and enable them to start their own businesses, thereby boosting economic independence and improving community livelihoods.

Infrastructure

Uganda’s road network has undergone significant expansion and modernisation since the 1990s, transforming transport and trade across the country.

Today, the national road network spans over 170,000 kilometres, including paved highways, major feeder roads, and urban roads connecting all regions.

Key infrastructure projects under the NRM government include the Kampala-Entebbe Expressway, the Northern Bypass, Jinja-Kampala highway upgrades, and numerous district and rural road improvements. These have enhanced accessibility, reduced travel times, and supported economic activity, particularly in agriculture, trade, and tourism.

Investments in bridges, including the high-tech Jinja Bridge, are among the flagship infrastructure projects the government highlights, unlike before the 1990s, when Uganda’s road network was limited and in poor condition, with many rural areas inaccessible, especially during rainy seasons. Paved roads were also concentrated around major towns and Kampala, while most districts depended on deteriorating gravel roads.

Energy

The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development recently indicated that electricity generation has increased from about 150 megawatts in 1986 to more than 2,000 megawatts today. In 1986, the entire country had only one hydropower plant, Nalubaale (formerly Owen Falls Dam), with a maximum generation capacity of 150 megawatts. But the country now has four large hydropower plants at Nalubaale, Kiira, Isimba, and Karuma, with a combined generation capacity of 1,163.2 megawatts.

Other small power plants across the country have added another 888.8 megawatts, bringing the installed electricity generation capacity to 2,052 megawatts.

Government plans to commence investment in new hydropower plants at Ayago in Nwoya District (840 megawatts), Kiba in Oyam District (400 megawatts), and Oriang in Nwoya District (382 megawatts). Funding for these power plants was included in the 2025/2026 national budget. With oil and gas production expected to commence in 2026, the government projects a new phase of growth, although concerns remain over debt, governance, and environmental risks.

Security

The general security situation in Uganda remains calm, with national borders largely secure, except for spillover effects from conflicts in eastern the DR Congo, South Sudan, the Sudan, and Somalia. These challenges include the influx of refugees and asylum seekers, illegal immigration, and the proliferation of small arms. The capacity of national security agencies, including the Uganda Police Force, and the Internal Security Organisation, supported by the UPDF, has been strengthened to combat crime and safeguard Ugandans. Joint FARDC-UPDF operations against the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) in eastern DRC are ongoing and have recorded significant achievements.

Health

Health Uganda’s health sector has seen significant improvements since 1986, with the government investing heavily in infrastructure, services, and human resources. Health facilities now include Health Centre IIIs in every sub-county, Health Centre IVs in each constituency, district hospitals in every district, and regional referral hospitals. Key institutions include Mulago National Referral Hospital, Kawempe National Referral Hospital, the Uganda Heart Institute, and Mbarara Regional Referral Hospital.

Kawempe and Mulago also provide specialised maternal and neonatal care, supporting reproductive health and reducing maternal mortality. The government has also heavily invested in the Uganda Cancer Institute and two regional cancer centres, the Uganda Heart Institute, as well as intensive care units and imaging centres at referral hospitals. Preventive healthcare, immunisation programmes, and community outreach have strengthened access to quality healthcare nationwide.

Misses

Despite notable gains, challenges persist.

Corruption

Corruption continues to drain public resources, with the most recent IGG report estimating the country lost about Shs9.1 trillion to graft annually between July 2023 and June 2024. The report highlights widespread bribery, embezzlement, misappropriation of funds, and abuse of office across ministries, departments, and local governments. High-profile investigations have included dozens of cases involving government agencies such as the Uganda Revenue Authority and Kampala Capital City Authority, with recommendations to recover billions of shillings. Long-standing scandals continue to resonate. The controversial Temangalo land saga, in which the National Social Security Fund (NSSF) acquired land under disputed circumstances, has been a subject of public debate for years.

The Karamoja iron sheets scandal saw government officials implicated in the diversion of relief materials meant for vulnerable communities, with ministers charged over missing roofing materials. The Chogm scandal remains one of the most high-profile corruption cases in Uganda’s recent history. It centred on alleged financial misconduct during preparations for the 2007 Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting, where audits and parliamentary inquiries reported hundreds of millions of dollars were lost or unaccounted for amid accusations of inflated budgets, irregular contracts, and mismanagement. While some stolen resources have been recovered, corruption continues to erode public trust, reduce service delivery, and divert funds from key sectors such as health, education and infrastructure.

Unemployment

Unemployment remains a major socio-economic challenge, particularly among the youth, according to the latest Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS) findings. The national unemployment rate stands at about 12.3 percent, equivalent to around 1.4 million Ugandans aged 15 and above without work but actively seeking employment. Uganda’s labour market is struggling to absorb the growing number of graduates entering the job each year. Some 700,000 students graduate from universities and tertiary institutions annually, yet only between 90,000 and 238,000 secure formal employment.

DON’T MISS: 700,000 Ugandans spend over a year jobless – report

Political intolerance

Politically, the NRM’s longevity has generated controversy among the public. The 1995 Constitution initially entrenched democratic safeguards, including presidential term limits, which were later removed in 2005. The political landscape began to shift in the mid-2000s. In 2005, Parliament removed presidential term limits, clearing the way for Museveni to run indefinitely. The following year, multiparty politics was reintroduced, ending the Movement System but ushering in a more competitive and contentious electoral era.

Opposition parties emerged more visibly, particularly the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) and later the National Unity Platform (NUP). Elections since 2006 have been regularly held but consistently disputed, with Opposition candidates alleging intimidation, vote-rigging, and abuse of state resources. Critics argue that while the NRM has maintained relative stability, the political space for Opposition, civil society, and independent media has often been restricted. From the 1980s onward, measures such as arrests of political opponents, restrictions on party activities, and limits on press freedom have been reported, but often justified in the name of national security.

High-profile Opposition figures, including the NUP’s Robert Kyagulanyi, aka Bobi Wine, and former FDC party presidential candidate, Dr Kizza Besigye, who has been in prison since last year, have faced harassment and arrests, reflecting a long-standing pattern of suppressing dissent. Observers say while Uganda has held regular elections, the credibility and fairness of some of the polls have been questioned, and internal party dominance by the NRM has often limited genuine political competition.

The bad in education and health

While the NRM government has recorded achievements in education and health, significant gaps remain, affecting service quality and access. The challenges include overcrowded classrooms, insufficient teaching materials, and understaffed schools, particularly in rural areas. Although Universal Primary Education (UPE) and Universal Secondary Education (USE) expanded enrolment, many schools struggle to maintain quality due to low teacher motivation, poor infrastructure, and limited supervision.

The country has experienced rampant teacher strikes, especially from the arts teachers, while salaries for their science counterparts were increased at their expense. Technical and vocational education has not kept pace with labour market demands, contributing to a mismatch between graduate skills and available jobs. Additionally, student performance in national examinations remains uneven, reflecting persistent inequalities in regions. In the health sector, Uganda continues to face shortages of medical personnel, stock-outs of essential drugs, and inadequate health infrastructure, especially in rural communities.

President Museveni has acknowledged this problem and indicated he is going to fight drug theft in health facilities to address this challenge. Despite investments in referral hospitals and specialised institutes, maternal and child mortality rates remain high, and many health centres lack functioning equipment. The uneven distribution of health workers and services exacerbates inequalities, leaving vulnerable populations underserved. Observers argue that while reforms have expanded access, the focus on quantity over quality continues to limit meaningful human development.

Poverty

The latest Uganda National Household Survey (UNHS) by the Uganda Bureau of Statistics (Ubos) shows that Uganda’s national poverty rate declined to 16.1 percent in 2023/24 from 20.3 percent in 2019/20, signalling notable progress in reducing income poverty. This translates to about 7 million Ugandans still living below the absolute poverty line of $1 per day (about Shs3,500).

Rural areas bear the brunt of deprivation, with 19.4 percent in poverty, compared to 10.3 percent in urban centres. However, stark regional disparities persist, with Karamoja recording a 74.2 percent poverty rate, the highest in the country.

In sum, as Uganda marks 40 years of NRM party rule, the debate has moved beyond liberation. The central question is whether a movement borne out of rebellion can successfully manage renewal, institutional strength, and eventual transition in a youthful, rapidly changing society.

A dusk raid on the home of NUP leader Robert Kyagulanyi on Friday by what is believed to be the State’s security apparatus has opened an old wound in Ugandan politics. Arthur Arnold Wadero sounded out the Leader of Opposition in Parliament, Mr Joel Ssenyonyi, about how his NUP party is dealing with the aftermath of the raid.

What is update within the party following the dusk raid on your leader’s home?

It is shocking that a regime that says it won by 71 per cent is operating with such fear. People are abducted who, now eight or nine days later, we don’t even know where they are. We have cells that are full of our leaders and supporters who were picked up. Many of them are polling agents who were picked up and so on.

Yes, the home of our leader has been raided twice-yesterday [Friday night] was the most gruesome one because they broke doors. You look at all these things and wonder.

Why is the regime which says that it is loved by the people who apparently gave it 71 percent in so much fear and operating in such panic?

If there is anybody they are interested in, why don’t they send summons to come and present themselves?

Of course, they told me [that] they are not the ones commanding the operation. It must be Muhoozi [Kainerugaba, the Chief of Defence Forces] with all these things he has been tweeting-‘Bobi Wine I am coming for you. I will kill you.’ And all of that drama.

So it is obvious they know [that] they don’t have the favour and support of the people. They know [that].

Has tension escalated, and if so, how can we de-escalate?

Of course, people are worried. Many of our leaders and supporters are worried. If you can kidnap and abduct leaders at the level of deputy president [in charge of] western [region], deputy president [in charge of] northern [region], John Mary Ssebufu is on our Election Management Committee, and nine days late their whereabouts are not known. So others will obviously be concerned too because this regime operates in a very criminal manner. The way Idi Amin used to do things.

If people are suspected of committing an offence, why don’t you arrest them as the law prescribes and then produce them in court? What is worrying is that we don’t know if they are still alive. We don’t know in what shape they are.

What is the latest medical status of Barbie Itungo, Bobi Wine’s wife?

I went there in the night yesterday [Friday night] actually, when I got that alert. I found [that] there were over 100 military men. Some were outside. Others were on the inside. Some were in uniform. Some ere in plain clothes. [Some were] masked. They also denied me access to the premises.

What are the safety measures that the party is putting to insulte other party members from such arrests?

We are not a criminal entity. We are a legally recognised entity and a political party. Our activities are legal. This is an election that had been scheduled. So we are going about activities and not breaking any law. If they wish to continue breaking, then the law is criminality. That is up to them because there is no offence that we are committing by participating an election and mobilising [voters].

Yes, there is fear, but we are not going to close shop as a political party. We will keep doing what we have to do after all, we are not breaking any law.

So what next?

I think the country is at a crossroads. We are at place that is precarious as a country because you get into an election and the regime rigs in a very unprecedented manner. So somebody was asking that, this 71 per cent victory, why are people not rejoicing and in excitement as it should be? The voter turnout continues to dwindle. Why? Because people are of the view that my vote will not be respected. It does not count. That is a dangerous place to be at as a country because then, people might begin to think of other avenues of dealing with bad governance, and that is not good for us as a nation. So increasingly the population is being pushed in that corner where their vote does not count, and they think what we do as a country.

Parliament resumes next Tuesday. What sort of redress should we expect?

Parliament is a platform which those of us elected into have and use. The problem is that the Speaker tries to gag us, but we shall not allow that dictatorial tendency. So we will not keep quiet about these ills that are happening in our country, and we shall keep using it as a platform. At least [Speaker Anita] Among did not invite me there or anybody. We were voted as we will use that platform.

President Museveni is today expected to honour 33 individuals as the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) marks 40 years in power, celebrating achievements since it took control of government in 1986 after a five-year guerrilla war in the Luweero Triangle. The recipients, drawn from politics, business, public service and other sectors, will receive various national and party awards, including the Crested Crane-Grand Commander, National Independence Diamond Jubilee Medal, Nalubale Medal, Masaba Star, Luweero Triangle Medal, Personal Sacrifice Award and the Meritorious Service Award. Among those to be decorated at the fete to be held at Kololo Independence Grounds is businessman Harshad Maganbhai Barot, who will receive the Crested Crane-Grand Officer award, one of the country’s highest civilian honours.

The Distinguished Order of the Crested Crane (Grand Officer) is a prestigious Ugandan national honour conferred by the President for exceptional service in the public or private sectors. Mr Barot, 67, the lone recipient in this category, is the founder of the Tirupati Group. He arrived in Uganda in 1993 with starting capital of about $150 (then approximately Shs179,250) and began his entrepreneurial journey as a door-to-door hawker selling household items. Over the years, he has grown into one of Uganda’s prominent property developers, focusing on affordable commercial and residential infrastructure, particularly for small and medium enterprises (SMEs). In 2006, Mr Barot ventured into providing cost-effective housing and commercial units aimed at supporting SMEs.

His breakthrough came in 2008 with the development of Tirupati Ovino Mall in downtown Kampala, which houses more than 250 shops and helped revitalise the area into a major commercial hub. This was followed by the launch of Tirupati Mazima Mall in 2012, further expanding access to affordable trading space for hundreds of entrepreneurs and boosting local economic activity. Other notable developments under the Tirupati Group include Tirupati Heights in Naguru, Tirupati Kampala Arch Centre, Tirupati Half London, Tirupati Nkumba Village and Tirupati Business Park in Kyebando, which hosts more than 200 SMEs and employs over 1,500 Ugandans.

The Kyebando Business Park, inaugurated by President Museveni in 2015, has since become one of the country’s flagship SME hubs, credited with decongesting Kampala, promoting industrial growth and supporting entrepreneurship. Mr Barot has attributed his business success to the peace, stability and favourable investment climate fostered under the NRM government. Beyond business, he has invested in community development through the LEELA Foundation, which focuses on empowering girls, women and the elderly through skills training, community services and social support initiatives. Through both private enterprise and public-sector partnerships, Mr Barot has participated in government projects aligned with national development goals, with his developments serving as centres of employment, innovation and economic growth.

According to organisers, the NRM @40 awards are intended to recognise individuals whose contributions align with the party’s legacy and its role in Uganda’s political and economic transformation over the past four decades. Speaking ahead of today’s celebrations, the Minister for the Presidency, Ms Milly Babalanda, said the event will be special, featuring a parade by the UPDF, Police, Prisons and the Uganda Wildlife Authority.

‘President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni will on this occasion confer different categories of medals to 33 Ugandans. These are distinguished Ugandans who have sacrificed for their motherland in different ways for it to reach where it is today,’ Ms Babalanda said last Friday during a media briefing at the Uganda Media Centre in Kampala. January 26 marks the day when NRA fighters captured Kampala, ending the rule of the Uganda National Liberation Army (UNLA) junta led by the late Gen Tito Okello Lutwa. This year’s celebrations are themed: ‘Tribute to the patriots who ushered in a fundamental change.’

Women in Nakivale and Oruchinga refugee settlements have been urged to embrace the government-supported Generating Growth Opportunities and Productivity for Women Enterprises (GROW) Project as traditional donor funding continues to decline.

The call was made during a business training organised by Enterprise Uganda at St Kaggwa Training Centre in Bushenyi District, which brought together women refugees engaged in small and micro enterprises.

Settlement leaders said shrinking humanitarian support, particularly food and cash assistance, has made economic self-reliance increasingly urgent for refugees who have lived in Uganda for many years.

Ms Monica Mugisha, the settlement commandant for Nakivale Refugee Settlement, said donor funding cuts had affected nearly all sectors in the settlement, creating gaps that programmes such as GROW are expected to help fill.

‘We have been experiencing reduced funding across sectors. With GROW coming on board, it is supporting women who are already active in business but lack the capacity to scale,’ Ms Mugisha said.

She noted that although other organisations had previously offered training in Nakivale, their reach was limited.

‘GROW has the capacity to reach a bigger number of women. This will help them not only to grow their businesses but also to manage their households better and seek opportunities beyond the settlement,’ she said.

Ms Mugisha added that Uganda’s refugee policy, which allows freedom of movement, enables women refugees to operate businesses outside settlements, including in nearby towns such as Mbarara.

At Oruchinga Refugee Settlement, the commandant, Mr Charlie Tofias, said the near withdrawal of food and cash assistance by the World Food Programme (WFP) had accelerated the shift toward livelihood-based interventions.

‘Most refugees are now off food and cash assistance. We are looking at self-sustainability, especially because many of them have been here for a long time,’ Mr Tofias said.

He described the refugee situation as increasingly protracted, with limited prospects for resettlement or return.

‘We cannot depend on donors forever. Projects like GROW, supported by the World Bank, allow refugees to grow small businesses into sustainable enterprises,’ he said.

Mr Tofias said empowering women was central to household stability and community cohesion.

‘When a woman is economically empowered, the whole family benefits. Children go back to school, health improves and households become more stable,’ he said, adding that Oruchinga no longer receives new arrivals but still struggles with poverty.

‘A developed refugee population contributes to a calm and stable Uganda. These people are here to stay, and supporting their development is in the national interest,’ he said.

The training focused on business planning, opportunity identification and basic market research, areas that facilitators say are often overlooked by small-scale entrepreneurs.

Mr Andrew Nuwagira, a Monitoring and Evaluation specialist at Enterprise Uganda, said many refugees start businesses without sufficient planning, which limits growth and sustainability.

‘We trained participants on how to identify viable business opportunities, understand their customers, choose business locations and set prices,’ Mr Nuwagira said.

He said the training also encouraged participants to learn from existing businesses and to plan before expanding.

‘Our expectation is that by the end of this programme, participants will be able to grow existing enterprises and, in some cases, start new ones more strategically,’ he said.

Mr Charles Ocici, Director General of Enterprise Uganda, said the GROW Project deliberately targets women because they have historically been confined to informal and micro enterprises, limiting national productivity.

‘For decades, women have been left at the lower end of the private sector. That means we have underutilised half of our population,’ Mr Ocici said.

He said empowering women entrepreneurs has multiplier effects beyond business.

‘A woman improves not only national output but also household productivity and welfare. She influences how resources are used within the family,’ he said.

Mr Ocici said Enterprise Uganda brings more than two decades of experience in private sector development, focusing on business skills, planning and access to finance.

‘We train women to appreciate planning, resource mobilisation and how to graduate from microfinance to commercial and development banks,’ he said.

Participants described the training as transformative.

Ms Medius Kembabazi, a refugee entrepreneur, said she realised that poor financial discipline had held back her business.

‘I learned that I was stealing from my own business by using profits and even capital for personal expenses,’ she said.

She said the training taught her to reinvest profits and value non-financial capital such as time, attitude and knowledge.

‘I have learned that I am my first capital. My mindset matters if my business is to grow,’ she said

At the turn of the 20th Century, physicist Albert Einstein embarked on a quest to develop a ‘theory of everything’-a single, unified framework that could explain all fundamental forces and the interactions between elementary particles, ideally without relying on quantum mechanics. However, as our understanding of nature has evolved, the pursuit of such a grand theory has proven increasingly elusive, if not impossible. In contrast, areal planning science has moved in a different direction. Rather than seeking to unify through reductionism, it has developed frameworks that embrace complexity and inclusivity.

In planning, we arguably do have a kind of ‘theory of everything’-a framework that allows for the meaningful participation of all actors, even within fragmented sectors. This integrative approach makes it possible to coordinate diverse interests and systems within a common planning process, offering a level of unity that the physical sciences continue to seek. It is important to emphasise the final point in the previous statement: the lack of collaboration between Ministries, Departments, and Agencies (MDAs) often complicates service delivery. Rather than working together toward shared outcomes, MDAs tend to operate in silos, each zealously guarding its mandate.

This disjointed approach leads to duplication of activities, as each entity meticulously plans its own interventions-even when these are clearly part of a broader chain contributing to a common programme output. The result is that resources, which could have been pooled and directed toward a more coherent and impactful intervention, become scattered, misused, or even wasted. Against this backdrop, I wish to demonstrate the value of adopting a land use planning framework as a coordinating mechanism. Such a framework helps to clearly locate actors and align them around common interventions.

By mapping roles, responsibilities, and interdependencies, land use planning can foster collaboration, concentrate expertise where it is most needed, minimise duplication, and reduce the wastage of both time and resources. Most importantly, it helps to relieve the fatigue often experienced by local populations who are otherwise repeatedly engaged by different MDAs operating in parallel and at varying times. Land use planning is a 10-step process that begins with a planning phase in which goals are set, terms of reference defined and agreed upon, and a work plan prepared.

This is followed by analysis of problems within the planning area, identification of opportunities for change, evaluation of land suitability, and appraisal of alternatives based on environmental, economic, and social considerations. The process then proceeds to selection of the best option, preparation of the land use plan, implementation, and finally monitoring, whose outcomes may necessitate revision of the plan. Each step requires the engagement of appropriate actors drawn from mandated sectors, whose expertise and sectoral interests guide the process. The toolkit applied is expansive and varies at each stage, creating opportunities for meaningful multi-sectoral participation.

A key point of convergence for these actors is problem analysis, during which the existing land use situation is examined and constraints identified, including where they occur and who they affect. Overall, the land use planning process provides a unique platform for MDAs to articulate and address sector-specific issues within a shared spatial context, thereby enhancing coordination and reducing costs that would otherwise be incurred through separate consultations.

Before 1986, Uganda’s sporting landscape was stark. The country had several playing grounds, but only one facility that truly deserved to be called a stadium – the War Memorial Stadium at Nakivubo. Everything else fell short of international standards.

Fast forward four decades and the picture could not be more different.

Today, Uganda boasts two major public international-standard stadiums the Mandela National Stadium, Namboole and the newly constructed Hoima Stadium alongside the privately owned St. Mary’s Stadium, Kitende.

Supporting these are smaller but vital facilities such as Fufa Stadium, Kadiba, the Fufa Technical Centre in Njeru (built with Fifa funding) and the refurbished Wankulukuku Stadium. Still in the pipeline are the Akii-Bua Olympic Stadium in Lira City and the Philip Omondi Stadium in Lugogo, under construction by Kampala Capital City Authority.

This is the short version of a stadium infrastructure boom that has unfolded under the National Resistance Movement (NRM) government led by President Yoweri Kaguta Tibuhaburwa Museveni.

But how did it all begin?

The birth of Namboole

The idea of a modern national sports complex dates back to 1968 during Milton Obote’s first term. Political instability and funding constraints, however, meant the plan survived six regimes without materializing.

That changed after the NRM came to power on January 26, 1986.

In 1987, the government identified and acquired 147 acres on Namboole Hill. A year later, on December 14, 1988, Uganda signed an agreement with China for a $24 million interest-free loan to construct the stadium, a figure that later rose to approximately $36 million due to inflation and delays.

Construction, led by Chinese experts, began in 1993 and was completed in 1997. The Mandela National Stadium was officially opened on January 26, 1999, marking 13 years of NRM rule. A year earlier, South African icon Nelson Mandela visited the site alongside President Museveni, thanking Uganda for honouring his legacy by naming the facility after him.

More than just football

Although Namboole has hosted rugby and athletics, football has been the biggest beneficiary. The stadium has served as the home of the Uganda Cranes and a central venue for the Uganda Premier League.

Yet the NRM government’s infrastructure drive has extended beyond football.

In 2012, Stephen Kiprotich’s historic Olympic marathon gold in London captured the nation and the President’s attention. Museveni pledged to build a high-altitude training centre in Kapchorwa and a decade later, he delivered.

The state-of-the-art Kapchorwa High Altitude Training Centre, completed at a cost of over Shs29b, sits 2,500 metres above sea level on 45 hectares. Commissioned by the President alongside First Lady and Education and Sports Minister Janet Museveni, the facility features an artificial turf track, athletics track, field facilities, hostels and auxiliary amenities.

Afcon 2027 bonanza

In 2022, when CAF opened bidding for the 2027 Africa Cup of Nations, FUFA President Eng. Moses Magogo made a bold move. Alongside Kenya and Tanzania, Uganda submitted a joint bid, one that required unprecedented political backing.

President Museveni personally engaged his Kenyan and Tanzanian counterparts and unlocked the funding needed to make the bid credible. This triggered Phase II renovations of Namboole, which was upgraded to international standards and went on to host the highest number of matches during the 2024 African Nations Championship (CHAN).

Phase III is now underway. Once complete, Namboole will expand from 39,000 to 60,000 seats and include a four-star hotel, a multi-purpose indoor arena, a retractable roof, an Olympic-size swimming pool and state-of-the-art VIP lounges.

Beyond Kampala, the Afcon push has delivered two new stadiums. The 20,000-seater Hoima Stadium was commissioned on December 24, 2025 after a record 12-month construction period by Turkish firm Summa at a cost of about $130 million. It features hybrid turf, Var technology and an indoor arena.

In Lira City, construction of the 20,000-seater Akii-Bua Olympic Stadium was launched on January 29, 2025 at an estimated cost of Shs470b, with completion expected by the end of the year. The complex will include an eight-lane running track, an Olympic-size swimming pool, a 2,000-seat indoor arena and parking for over 1,000 vehicles.

Training facilities in Wankulukuku and Kyambogo University have also been upgraded ahead of Afcon 2027.

Money, law and structure

President Museveni long argued that once peace was secured, the government would invest heavily in sports and tourism. That promise has been matched with funding.

In just five years, the sports budget has surged from Shs17b in FY 2020/21 to over Shs508b in FY 2025/26. Government now fully supports national teams, alongside awarding bonuses and incentives to athletes.

To cement these gains, the President signed the National Sports Act, 2023 into law, repealing the outdated 1964 legislation. The Act establishes a strengthened National Council of Sports, protects land designated for sports, creates an independent National Anti-Doping Organisation and introduces a structured athlete rewards scheme.

Uganda’s Minister of Information, Communications Technology and National Guidance, Dr Chris Baryomunsi, has urged National Unity Platform (NUP) leader, Mr Robert Kyagulanyi, who is in hiding, to return home, arguing that the state was not looking for him as reports suggest.

Mr Kyagulanyi, who challenged President Museveni in the recently-concluded presidential polls but finished second, escaped from his home in Magere, Wakiso District, on January 16 following a night military raid.

He said security had planned to arrest him following the January 15 polls, whose results he has rejected.

‘There’s no need for him to be in hiding. Nobody wants him. He’s not under pursuit by the police or the army. I’m now speaking as the government of Uganda. He’s free to come from wherever he’s hiding. He should return to his home, be calm and observe law and order. He should stop the drama and theatrics, trying to cause a story where there’s no story. The presidential elections and parliamentary elections are now done. We are now focusing on the remaining few elections to complete the process, and we move on with delivering our manifesto, which we pledged to Ugandans,’ Dr Baryomunsi told NBS TV on Sunday evening.

According to the minister, Mr Kyagulanyi “incited his supporters to look for the vote, protect it and demand it.”

So, how can he go to demand his vote from a bush or wherever he’s hiding? We know where he is, and he’s just safely there, but it’s just cowardice. He can go to the courts of law if he thinks he has evidence that he was rigged. In my own district, Kanungu, he garnered 12,000 votes, which is a big percentage, yet he didn’t even have agents…He has nothing to tell his supporters. He just created a wrong feeling that he was getting stronger, and yet when he led the opposition in the last five years, he could not persuade anybody. Instead of mobilising Ugandans, he was rather creating conflicts within his own party. He never endeared himself to people in places where he had no support,” he added.

The minister also said the police and military presence at My Kyagulanyi’s home is to monitor “the kind of visitors who go thetre and the kind of interaction” they engage in.

However, Mr Baryomunsi’s statement contradicts President Museveni’s son, Gen Muhoozi Kainerugaba, who said they were looking for Mr Kyagulanyi, whom he described as a ‘coward.’

Gen Muhoozi, who is widely seen as the heir apparent to the Ugandan presidency, also refuted reports that UPDF soldiers beat up Mr Kyagulanyi’s wife, Barbra Itungo, during another night raid at Mr Kyagulanyi’s home by the military on January 23, 2026.

‘My soldiers did not beat up Barbie…Kabobi’s wife. First of all, we do not beat up women. They are not worth our time. We are looking for her cowardly husband, not her,’ Gen Muhoozi who acts as the Chief of Defence Forces posted on X in the wee hours of Monday morning.

The electoral commission declared President Museveni the winner of the disputed elections with 7,946,772 votes, representing 71.65 per cent of the total valid votes cast, securing him a seventh consecutive term in office. Mr Kyagulanyi was given 2,741,238 votes (24.72 per cent) in his second attempt to dislodge the former guerrilla leader who has been in power since 1986.

Mr Kyagulanyi rejected the results, describing them as “fake” and claiming they have “zero backing”. His rejection is based on several claims of systemic fraud and state-led repression. According to him, there was ballot stuffing countrywide and “cooked up” figures by the Justice Simon Byakama-led electoral commission following the widespread failure of Biometric Voter Verification Kits, which forced a resort to manual registers.

Following the polls, several arrests and night raids have been conducted at Mr Kyagulanyi’s home and at his supporters’.

Speaking from her hospital bed on Saturday afternoon, Ms Itungo said the assailants who descended on her at around 10 pm on January 23 broke windows and the door before making their way into the house. Ms Itungo accused the attackers of having molested her. She said one of them had ripped her night garments apart.

‘He went back behind me.I was wearing a biker, and on top of it I was wearing a knight shirt. He held the trousers of the nightie and pulled me up. He held and then pulled the shirt of the nightie from the back. The buttons of the shirt broke, and he stayed with my shirt. I was forced to go and sit in a corner. Some of them were unbothered. Others looked the other way,’ she said.

Ms Itungo said the rough treatment she was subjected to was precipitated by her refusal to acquiesce to a demand to give the assailants the password to her mobile phone handset. The attackers went away with mobile phones and other electronic gadgets. Ms Itungo said she suspected that the attack in which she and all the people in the compound suffered severe beatings was possibly aimed at breaking her husband’s spirit and compelling him to come out of hiding.

‘I think the intention was to break Bobi’s spirit so that he comes out of hiding, but I encourage him to stay strong. He should not come out until it is safe,’ she said.

Ms Itungo said she also suspects that the raid in which two of their dogs were shot and killed could also be about planting evidence to set the ground for bringing trumped-up charges against her husband. ‘They could have planted things in our home to come up with claims that my husband is involved in acts of terror,’ she said.

The raid on Bobi Wine’s abode came hours after Mr Muhammad Muwanga-Kivumbi, one of NUP’s top honchos, was remanded to custody.

The NUP leadership is already under a lot of pressure following the detentions of Ms Jolly Tukamushaba, the party’s Deputy President for western Uganda, and Lina Zedriga, the Deputy President for northern Uganda. Critics say the arrests and dusk raid on Bobi Wine’s abode is intended to have a chilling effect on the party, its members, and planned operations.

The Leader of Opposition in Parliament, Mr Joel Ssenyonyi, however, said the party will not cower to such intentions.