Category: Energy and Power

Bangladesh’s gas sector is entering a phase of cautious optimism after years of decline, but the path to recovery remains uncertain and heavily conditional.

the country faces a large and persistent supply deficit, and closing it will depend on completing the 150-well drilling program, connecting Bhola to the national grid, expanding LNG infrastructure, and securing foreign investment. While Petrobangla claims new momentum, experts question its capacity. Without stronger coordination and timely decisions by the next government, the gas crisis is likely to endure.Bangladesh’s gas sector is slowly inching out of a long period of uncertainty, giving policymakers and energy experts their first real reasons for cautious optimism.

after years of declining production and recurring shortages, some believe the country could start to see an improvement in supply by the early 2030s. Still, it remains far too soon to say how much of today’s shortfall can realistically be closed. Right now, Bangladesh needs about 4,200 MMCFD of gas each day, but falls short by roughly 1,500 MMCFD.

if the government can enforce efficiency, curb waste, and keep total demand near 4,500 MMCFD by 2030, experts say the deficit may at least stop widening – and could even begin to shrink. But that outlook rests on several critical conditions.

the Energy Division and Petrobangla stress that Bangladesh must complete the remaining 130 wells under the 150-well drilling program and connect the promising Bhola gas fields to the national grid.

one senior Petrobangla official, requesting anonymity, noted that the situation might already be improving had the government not cancelled LNG projects approved under a special act or stalled the rig agreements needed for drilling. Looking ahead, he said meeting the 2030 goal will require staying on course with the 150-well plan, adding at least one additional FSRU, and accelerating the land-based LNG terminal so it can begin operating by 2031. Experts Remain Skeptical about Petrobangla’s Capacity Energy experts are not convinced about the success of Petrobangla’s drilling plan. They argue that neither Petrobangla nor its subsidiary companies possess the management or technical capacity to complete the plan by 2030. Petrobangla, however, disagrees, saying experts are basing their skepticism on past performance.

the organization claims that over the past two years, both the Energy Division and Petrobangla have adopted a new results-driven approach to gas exploration and development. For the first time, nine rigs are operational in Bangladesh, and the number will increase to 11 starting in January next year. With this capacity, Petrobangla believes drilling at least 30 wells per year should not pose a major challenge. However, the continuation of this momentum will depend on the policy direction of the incoming government.

over the past 125 years, Bangladesh has drilled 100 exploration wells – the most recent being the 100th well in Jamalpur. In total, 258 wells have been drilled onshore and offshore. Since 2009, several onshore exploration plans have been undertaken, but none have achieved significant success.

this has shakenconfidence in Petrobangla and BAPEX’s ability to execute their drilling plans. Former BAPEX Director Murtaza Ahmed Faruque said, ‘I do not believe that Petrobangla and BAPEX will be able to complete the 150-well program by 2028. I will be satisfied if even half of the plan is implemented.’ Why is there Still Hope around the 150Well Plan? As domestic production declined rapidly, the government approved a plan in 2022 to drill 46 wells, including 16 exploration wells, with the hope of restoring production to 2,000 MMCFD.

the plan is expected to add 618 MMCFD of new domestic supply within three years. Later, the plan was revised to 50 wells, with a new target of adding 648 MMCFD. So far, 19 wells under the 50-well plan and one well from the 100-well plan (20 in total) have been drilled.

according to Petrobangla, these wells have collectively added 210 MMCFD of production capacity, though only 90 MMCFD has been connected to the national grid due to pipeline gaps. Work on another seven wells under the 50well plan is ongoing and expected to be completed by January next year.

of the remaining 23 wells, seven will be drilled by BAPEX and 16 by contractors.

of these, 18 wells are at the DPP stage, 17 are approved, and one is awaiting approval. Petrobangla expects to complete the entire 50-well program by June 2026, adding another 438 MMCFD. But due to infrastructure gaps, only about half of that may be added to the national grid.

a Petrobangla official, requesting anonymity, said: ‘The biggest success so far is that we have slowed down the decline in production from national companies.

once the full 50-well program is completed, output from national companies should stabilize, and may even increase slightly.’ However, production from IOC-operated fields continues to decline by 140-150 MMCFD per year, a trend expected to continue.

the 100-Well Program: Ambition vs Reality Petrobangla has already initiated work on the 100-well program.

a total of 21 DPPs have been finalized: 20 approved and one pending.

the plan includes 52 exploration wells, 17 development and appraisal wells, and the rest workovers. Field implementation will begin in July next year. Petrobangla acknowledges that it will not be possible to finish all 100 wells by 2028. But with sustained effort and increased rig capacity, it believes the full program can be completed by 2030. Former Petrobangla Director Engr.

ali Iqbal Md. Nurullah offered a practical proposal: ‘Achieving the target is essential, but the strategy must change. Contractors must be given clusters of 6-10 wells with strict deadlines and strong monitoring. This would significantly increase the chances of meeting the targets.’ However, the Energy Division claims that an external monitoring committee has been formed to ensure that contractors and BAPEX can complete their work on time.

in addition, a daily monitoring committee of Petrobangla and company representatives is also active. Because of this, there is no scope for falling behind the target. Petrobangla sources say that if the 150-well drilling plan, including four deep-drilling wells, is completed, total production capacity will increase by 1,133 MMCFD (648 + 985).

as a result, during this period, national gas field production can be raised again to 2,000 MMCFD. However, during the same period, IOC-operated fields will see a significant decline in output. But the essential condition is that work to connect Bhola to the national grid must begin immediately, without losing even a single day. Bhola’s Gas and the Challenges in Reducing Shortage Bhola currently has nine gas wells, five of which are in production.

although the capacity is 100 MMCFD, due to low local demand, production is restricted to 60-80 MMCFD. Work is ongoing to bring the remaining four wells online.

under the new plan, 10 additional wells will be drilled in Bhola.

once all 19 wells are operational, Bhola’s production capacity could reach 320-520 MMCFD.

therefore, pipeline construction to connect Bhola to the national grid must begin immediately.

even though the issue has been discussed for nearly 25 years, no implementation steps have been taken.

the interim government likely lacks enough time to decide on building the pipeline. Therefore, whichever elected government comes to power must take up and implement the pipeline project without delay. Gas Import and Infrastructure Expansion Bangladesh currently has an LNG import capacity of 1,100 MMCFD, and with available pipeline facilities, 1,050 MMCFD can be imported.

the two FSRUs can receive and regasify 114 LNG cargoes per year.

the interim government has fully utilized the FSRU capacity this year to reduce industrial gas shortages. Under the previous Awami League government, agreements were made to expand LNG import infrastructure: ? A third FSRU contract was signed with Summit Group ? A fourth FSRU in Kuakata was initiated with U.S.-based Excelerate Energy ? Negotiations were underway with two entities to import RLNG from India via pipeline These were all executed under the Speedy Supply of Power and Energy Act. However, the interim government halted the ongoing negotiations and canceled the third FSRU contract with Summit – now pending in court.

officials at the Energy Division and Petrobangla, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that there is no alternative to gradually increasing LNG imports to address the gas shortage. Yet the interim government has taken no effective steps to expand infrastructure after canceling previous agreements.

thus, once a new government takes office, it must urgently resume negotiations for LNG infrastructure expansion and review canceled agreements for faster results.

a new FSRU would take at least 3 years to install.

a land-based terminal would take 5-6 years.

additionally, new transmission pipelines must be constructed simultaneously.

otherwise, increased LNG imports will not help reduce shortages. Foreign Investment in Oil and Gas Exploration Petrobangla has finalized draft offshore and onshore PSCs to attract foreign investment for oil and gas exploration. Preparations for bidding have also been completed. However, according to one Energy Division source, the interim government is unlikely to approve the final PSCs.

therefore, the elected government must quickly approve the draft PSCs after taking office. Petrobangla believes that tenders can be invited within 3-4 months thereafter.

onshore, the Chittagong Hill Tracts are considered highly promising.

if PSCs are signed with IOCs, success may come within 3 to 5 years.

offshore exploration, however, may require 8-10 years to yield results. Because energy companies are hesitant during the interim government period, PSCs are not being finalized.

a newly elected government is expected to restore investor confidence. Chhatak Gas Field and Legal Issues A long-pending case between Petrobangla and Niko involving a section of the Chhatak gas field is yet to receive a verdict. Although the hearing is complete, the financial liability determination order has not been issued.

as a result, Petrobangla cannot undertake any new exploration work in Chhatak, which is widely regarded as a promising structure.

once the court verdict is delivered, exploration can begin, potentially leading to major discoveries. Because the field is close to the national grid, new production can be connected quickly, playing a crucial role in reducing the ongoing gas crisis. Conclusion For the first time in the country’s history, nine drilling rigs are running at once, a rare moment of momentum in Bangladesh’s long-stalled gas sector. Within the next few months, that number is expected to rise to 11. Petrobangla argues that with this capacity, it should be possible to finish the remaining wells under the 150well program, including four deep wells, within the planned timeline.

at full pace, the rigs can drill around 30 wells a year. But drilling alone won’t solve the crisis. The bigger hurdle lies in connecting new production to the national grid. Several wells, especially those in Bhola, remain stranded without transmission links.

unless pipeline construction begins early next year and the Bhola fields are integrated without delay, much of the new gas will remain unusable.

the third FSRU also needs to be operational by 2029 for the supply outlook to meaningfully improve.

if all these pieces fall into place, Bangladesh could raise its total gas supply to around 3,500 MMCFD by 2030, with domestic output potentially climbing back above 2,000 MMCFD. But that outcome depends on something the sector has struggled with for years: coordination. Previous attempts to ease shortages have repeatedly faltered because exploration, production, grid expansion, and LNG infrastructure were pursued in isolation. This time must be different.

the incoming government will need to move quickly, pushing forward ongoing projects and launching new ones, to prevent the gas crisis from dragging on for yet another decade.

A fire broke out at a wood pile within the Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant in Ishwardi upazila of Pabna district recently.

abul Hashem, senior station master of Rooppur Green City Fire Service, said the fire erupted at an abandoned wood pile along the Padma River on the eastern side of the power plant and quickly spread.

on information, eight firefighting units rushed to the scene and managed to extinguish the blaze after nearly an hour.

the wood had been stored for use in the construction work of the project, he said.

Fakir Technologies Limited, a concern of the Fakir Fashion family, has officially launched Bangladesh’s first multi-scale Battery Energy Storage System (BESS), marking a significant leap toward a smarter, cleaner, and more sustainable energy future. With a commitment to transforming Bangladesh’s energy landscape, Fakir Technologies has successfully deployed three scalable BESS solutions under the ZERO brand.

these systems are designed to meet the diverse power needs of industries, commercial establishments, and households by integrating seamlessly with both solar and grid power sources. ZERO ensures uninterrupted and cost-effective electricity supply, significantly reducing dependency on diesel generators, carbon emissions, noise pollution, and maintenance expenses.

Bangladesh Bank (BB) has relaxed regulations governing power-import payments, allowing authorized dealer banks to make outward remittances for electricity purchases under governmentapproved cross-border arrangements without obtaining prior approval for each case from the central bank.

in a circular issued recently, the central bank said the move aims to streamline and facilitate smooth payment settlements for power imports transmitted through the national grid under bilateral agreements approved by the government.

under the new directive, banks are permitted to remit funds to foreign beneficiaries for electricity purchases from abroad, subject to several conditions.

the circular also stressed that banks must comply with all foreign exchange regulations, including Know Your Customer (KYC) requirements and Anti-Money Laundering/ Combating the Financing of Terrorism (AML/CFT) standards, along with routine reporting to Bangladesh Bank. Additionally, in cases where power purchase transactions require customs formalities, payments will be allowed following the standard import procedures, the circular added.

Shell plc reported strongerthan-expected third-quarter 2025 earnings on Oct. 30, buoyed by robust operations, higher trading contributions, and steady upstream performance in key regions.

the oil major posted adjusted earnings of $5.4 billion, topping the company’s own forecast of $5.09 billion. The result compares with $6 billion in the same quarter a year earlier and $4.26 billion in second-quarter 2025. Cash flow from operations (CFFO) totaled $12.2 billion, down from $14.7 billion a year earlier. Cash capital expenditure was at $4.9 billion for the quarter. ‘Shell delivered another strong set of results, with clear progress across our portfolio and excellent performance in our Marketing business and deepwater assets in the Gulf of Mexico and Brazil,’ said chief executive officer Wael Sawan.

Sheik Moinuddin, special assistant to the chief adviser, said that the Bangladesh Road Transport Corporation was preparing to commence the procurement process for 340 new single decker CNGpowered air-conditioned buses soon.

this project aims to mitigate the transportation crisis within Dhaka city and across the country while promoting ecofriendly transportation.

the initiative involves a project cost of approximately Tk 1,133.46 crore. Funding is derived from two key sources, the government of Bangladesh, contributing Tk 304.83 crore, and a loan from the economic development cooperation fund of South Korea, covering Tk 828.63 crore. BRTC officials anticipated that an international tender would be called within one month, with the entire procurement scheduled for completion by December 2027.

Department of Environment (DoE) has carried out a series of mobile court across the country to curb the use of hydraulic horns, control noise pollution, and prevent the stockpiling and sale of banned polythene. DoE’s Monitoring and Enforcement Wing and the Bangladesh Road Transport Authority (BRTA) jointly conducted the drive in Dhaka’s Rampura area.

The mobile court took action against six vehicles which were fined Tk 16,000 for using hydraulic horns and creating excessive noise, while eight horns were confiscated.

The BRTA also filed 11 cases and dumped two buses during the operation. DoE officials said the nationwide drives will continue to protect the environment, control noise pollution, eliminate banned polythene use, and promote environmental sustainability.

Nearly 80 percent of the world’s poorest, or about 900 million people, are directly exposed to climate hazards exacerbated by global warming, bearing a ‘double and deeply unequal burden,’ the United Nations warned recently. ‘No one is immune to the increasingly frequent and stronger climate change effects like droughts, floods, heat waves, and air pollution, but it’s the poorest among us who are facing the harshest impact,’ Haoliang Xu, acting administrator of the United Nations Development Program, said in a statement. COP30, the UN climate summit in Brazil in November, ‘is the moment for world leaders to look at climate action as action against poverty,’ he added.

According to an annual study published by the UNDP together with the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative, 1.1 billion people, or about 18 percent of the 6.3 billion in 109 countries analyzed, live in ‘acute multidimensional’ poverty, based on factors like infant mortality and access to housing, sanitation, electricity and education.

Bangladesh’s natural gas reserves are dwindling fast, pushing the country to depend heavily on costly spot purchases of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to keep industries and power plants running.

Experts warn that unless new gas fields are discovered and production begins from untapped reserves, the country’s local supply could run dry within the next eight years. Petrobangla data shows that of the 29.74 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of extractable gas reserves discovered so far, 21.08tcf has already been extracted.

Only 8.66tcf remained as of June 2024. Daily output from domestic fields has fallen to around 1,800 million cubic feet per day (mmcfd), down a third from 2,700mmcfd in 2017. ‘Local production is declining but demand is rising in every sector,’ said a senior official at Petrobangla. ‘To meet the gap, we have no choice but to increase LNG imports.’

Amid ongoing global conflicts and shifting political priorities, COP30 in Brazil faces the uphill task of reigniting stalled climate action.

The article paints a vivid picture of the growing disconnect between scientific warnings and policy decisions- especially on emission reductions, adaptation funding, and renewable energy targets. With the world’s biggest polluters still holding back updated pledges and climate funds falling far short, it emphasizes that only strong global cooperation, creative financing solutions, and genuine political will can keep the 1.5°C goal alive and prevent climate ambitions from slipping away.

The world today is gripped by war, division, and a renewed struggle for dominance.

The Middle East remains on edge, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict shows no sign of resolution.

As a result, the focus of developed nations has increasingly shifted toward military buildup and defense expansion rather than global cooperation.

Once the torchbearers of climate ambition, these countries are now channeling resources into security and geopolitical influence.

The return of protectionist trade policies, such as former U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff measures, has further rattled the global economy and deepened uncertainty.

Adding to this drift, the United States has withdrawn from the Paris Agreement for the second time, leaving a troubling void in global climate leadership.

Against this turbulent backdrop, the world’s attention is now turning to the Brazilian city of Belém, located in the heart of the Amazon, where leaders and negotiators will gather under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) for the 30th Conference of the Parties (COP30).

Beginning on November 10, the summit will aim to find common ground on how humanity can shield itself from the escalating threats of climate change and pollution.

The venue itself – the Amazon rainforest, often called the ‘lungs of the planet’ – is a poignant reminder of what is at stake. Yet, even before discussions begin, disappointment hangs heavy in the air. Developing countries and civil society groups are dismayed by the lack of ambition shown in the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), the emission-reduction commitments central to the Paris Agreement. Despite multiple extensions, only 67 of the 193 signatories have submitted their updated NDCs (version 3.0), representing just 30% of global emissions.

The world’s largest polluters – the United States, the European Union, China, and India – have yet to deliver theirs, leaving countries responsible for 70% of carbon pollution conspicuously silent. Under the Paris Agreement, every signatory is legally obliged to submit an NDC, but this fundamental obligation is being ignored at a time when action has never been more urgent.

The UNFCCC’s recent Synthesis Report paints a sobering picture.

Even if all current pledges are fully implemented, global emissions will drop only 6% by 2030 and 17% by 2035 compared to 2019 levels.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), however, warns that emissions must decline by at least 60% by 2035 to achieve net zero by 2050.

The gap between rhetoric and reality has never been wider – and the longer it persists, the harder it will be to limit global warming to 1.5°C, the critical threshold for avoiding catastrophic climate disruption. Climate negotiations have always been a delicate balancing act between science and politics. Within the UNFCCC framework, decisions are made not through voting but by consensus, making progress painfully slow and often hostage to national interests.

This process, while inclusive in theory, has too often allowed politics to overshadow science and ambition.

The result has been a cycle of promises unfulfilled and targets unmet, even as the planet’s temperature and climate risks rise relentlessly. When asked about this, Professor Mizan R. Khan, Technical Lead of LUCCC, said: ‘It is now clear that keeping global temperature rise within 1.5°C is nearly impossible, as we are already approaching that level.

But keeping the 1.5°C target alive as a pressure point is essential.

If the world fails to reduce emissions significantly, the temperature could rise by 2°C by 2050 and reach 2.7°C or higher by the end of the century, leading to devastating consequences for humanity.’ Professor Dr.

Ainun Nishat added: ‘There is no alternative to keeping the 1.5°C goal alive.

Although temperatures may exceed projections by 2050, they could stabilize later.

I believe the global leadership in Belém will take necessary steps to ensure that the 1.5°C target remains alive.’ According to Mirza Shawkat Ali, Director at the Department of Environment, China now accounts for 23% of global emissions, followed by the United States at 13%. ‘The positive side,’ he said, ‘is that China is making massive investments in renewable energy expansion.

Although the U.S. withdrew from the Paris Agreement, several states continue to implement emission-reduction programs.

However, developed countries are showing little interest in providing the investments needed to limit temperature rise to 1.5°C this century.

Therefore, it would be unrealistic to expect major breakthroughs in climate financing from the Belém negotiations.

Still, discussions will likely continue on how to increase the climate fund from USD 300 billion per year starting in 2026 to USD 1.3 trillion by 2035.

The reality, however, is that according to the Global South’s position, such financing cannot come entirely from the public sector-it will gradually decline.

Hence, there is no alternative but to explore how to mobilize funds from the private sector and innovative sources, while continuing to pressure high-emitting nations to contribute.’ Amid this uncertainty and frustration, COP30 will commence in Belém on November 10 and continue until November 21, with one day’s break.

Historically, Brazil has played a strong role in climate diplomacy.

According to Ziaul Haque, Additional Director General of the Department of Environment: ‘Brazil is doing its utmost to keep the 1.5°C goal alive and secure financing.

The country has sent 15 letters to nations around the world seeking support for these objectives, and ministerial-level dialogues have been held on the matter.

However, the level of success remains uncertain, as current geopolitical realities are not in Brazil’s favor.’ Negotiators believe that the ‘Baku to Belém Roadmap for USD 1.3 Trillion’ will receive the highest priority at COP30.

Based on the Baku decision, the annual climate fund floor must rise from USD 100 billion to USD 300 billion by 2026, and the roadmap to reach USD 1.3 trillion by 2035 will be discussed.

According to Dr. Manjurul Hannan Khan, Executive Director of the Nature Conservation Network (NACOM): ‘The world is far behind in setting a new scale for climate finance.

It’s unlikely that the Belém negotiations will achieve significant progress toward the USD 1.3 trillion roadmap target.’ However, Ziaul Haque remains cautiously optimistic: ‘Brazil will continue its efforts to identify concrete sources of climate financing and announce a roadmap.

It is true that full funding cannot come from the public sector-it will decline gradually.

Therefore, we must clarify how the private sector can contribute to climate funds, alongside exploring ways to engage charities and wealthy individuals in climate financing.’ In essence, innovative financing means finding ways to raise funds through taxation on the wealthy and levies on airlines and shipping lines.

The key challenge now is to define how such financing mechanisms can be established.

It is expected that the Belém negotiations will focus more on identifying these financing channels rather than merely obtaining pledges of new funding. Many climate experts believe there is little chance that historically high-emitting countries will, on their own, provide sufficient contributions to climate funds.

Therefore, emerging economies must also be pressured to step up and contribute to financing efforts.

In an interview with Energy and Power, Md.

Shamsuddoha, Chief Executive of the Center for Participatory Research and Development (CPRD), said: ‘It is becoming increasingly difficult to secure financing for climate action – particularly as grants. For example, in 2024, the total global development assistance amounted to USD 1.3 trillion, of which only 5.6% was in grants, while 80% came in the form of loans.

Therefore, mobilizing investment to keep global temperature rise within 1.5°C has become one of the biggest challenges of the 21st century.’ To exert pressure on developed countries to fulfill their commitments, the Civil Society Federation has organized a three-day ‘Fotila’ campaign during the Belém COP. During a discussion on the issue, an Additional Secretary of the Economic Relations Division (ERD) AKM Sohel said that since independence, Bangladesh has received commitments of USD 187 billion in foreign assistance, of which USD 107 billion has been disbursed.

Of this, 94.73% came as loans, while only a small portion was in grants across various sectors.

Therefore, it is unrealistic to expect that all climate finance will come as public sector grants.

Instead, the Global South’s negotiators and civil society should push for arrangements allowing climate-vulnerable countries to access loans at 1% interest rates.

Alongside discussions on the new dimensions of climate finance, there will again be debate on finalizing the definition of ‘climate finance.’ The Standing Committee on Finance will present its recommendations, but it is unlikely that developed and developing countries will reach an agreement.

There is also a significant discrepancy between the OECD’s accounting of climate finance and that of international NGOs like Oxfam.

As a result, there will likely be discussions on establishing a dedicated institution under the UNFCCC to monitor and oversee global climate finance flows – though no concrete decision is expected yet.

According to Professor Ainun Nishat, ‘It is unlikely that a decision will be made to establish such an institution now.

However, these issues can be reviewed under the framework of the Global Stocktake (GST).

The next GST will be held in 2028.’ While the Baku COP was dubbed the ‘Finance COP,’ the Belém COP does not yet have a distinct label.

However, one thing is nearly certain – from COP30, the world will adopt the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA).

Still, it remains unclear how much financing can be secured to implement it. Mirza Shawkat Ali believes that by reducing the number of indicators to around 100, the world will be able to finalize the GGA framework in Belém.

However, the real test will be how successfully countries can secure financing, technology transfer, and capacity-building investments to implement it.

It is expected that the Belém discussions will emphasize ensuring that each country finalizes its National Adaptation Plan (NAP) in line with the GGA framework.

As in every COP, negotiators will again push to allocate 50% of total climate finance to adaptation activities. When asked about the matter, Dr. Mizan R. Khan said: ‘The world is currently preoccupied with wars and tariffs.

Some developed countries are unwilling to provide financing, while others that want to invest in climate funds lack the capacity due to geopolitical constraints.

Therefore, I don’t expect major progress in financing.

The GGA will likely be approved, but implementing national adaptation plans will require USD 6-7 billion annually – and it’s unclear where that money will come from.’ Under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, carbon trading was adopted at the Baku COP, and discussions will continue in Belém to make it more effective.

In an interview with Energy and Power, Ziaur Rahman, Founder and CEO of Recycle Jar Ecosystem Ltd., said: ‘Bangladesh has significant potential to access large-scale funding for climate action through carbon trading.

By 2030, the global voluntary carbon market is projected to reach between USD 800 billion and USD 1.0 trillion.

If Bangladesh prepares properly, it could easily claim a 1% share of that market.

However, to achieve this, Bangladesh must establish a national carbon exchange, following the example of other countries. We are currently working toward that goal.’ Bangladesh’s NDC also includes provisions for mobilizing climate finance through carbon trading.

However, Dr. Manjurul Hannan Khan pointed out that: ‘While the project approval authority has been finalized, Bangladesh is still far behind in developing the necessary human resources – project developers and validators – needed to access carbon finance.

The country must strengthen its institutional capacity to fully benefit from carbon trading.’ To limit global temperature rise to 1.5°C, the world has no alternative but to take ambitious emission reduction actions.

Although the deadline for submitting NDCs has passed, only 67 countries, including Bangladesh, have submitted theirs.

According to the NDC Synthesis Report, the countries responsible for 70% of global emissions have yet to submit updated NDCs.

Even if all existing commitments are fully implemented, global emissions would fall by only 17% by 2035, whereas achieving the 1.5°C goal requires a 60% reduction during that period.

The report estimates that implementing 64 submitted NDCs will require USD 1.97 trillion, of which USD 1.07 trillion is expected to come from international assistance, while domestic investments will cover only USD 225 billion.

Bangladesh’s NDC follows a similar pattern – it estimates that achieving a reduction of 85 million tonnes of carbon emissions by 2035 will require USD 116 billion in investment, of which USD 90 billion is expected from global sources.

There is no doubt that discussions in Belém will be lively and intense over carbon emission reduction and Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). What makes this even more pressing is that even the European Union – which has traditionally led on emission reduction – has not yet submitted its updated NDC.

According to Ziaul Haque, the Belém COP could create an opportunity to encourage remaining countries to submit their NDCs.

Although following the International Court of Justice’s (ICJ) advisory opinion on climate impacts, it was expected that countries would present ambitious and effective emission reduction plans, that has not happened in practice.

At the Dubai COP, the Loss and Damage Fund was finalized.

So far, only USD 779 million has been pledged to the fund, and since Dubai, there has been no additional commitment.

The fund’s management board has decided to allocate USD 250 million to vulnerable and affected countries under specific projects.

The fund will become operational from the Belém COP, starting with a call for project proposals.

However, the Leaders’ Summit, scheduled for November 6-7 in Belém, is unlikely to bring new pledges to the fund, leaving the Global South pessimistic about fresh financial commitments.

To achieve the global goal of reducing carbon emissions and stabilizing temperatures, countries must gradually phase out fossil fuel use.

At the Dubai COP, countries agreed – without specifying a timeline or method – to transition away from fossil fuels. Yet, no progress was made on this at Baku, and there are no visible signs that it will advance in Belém either.

However, the world is working to finalize a Global Just Transition Roadmap. Global civil society expects that Belém will see the conclusion of a ‘Belém Action Mechanism for Global Just Transition,’ which will enable collaboration among Parties and stakeholders.

The plan is to continue this work until COP32, by which time a final roadmap for implementation could be adopted.

Alongside the decision to phase out fossil fuels, the Dubai COP also saw a global agreement that by 2030, every country will triple its renewable energy capacity and double its energy efficiency.

So far, 44 submitted NDCs have reiterated commitments to triple renewable energy capacity. Countries such as China, India, and those in the European Union are already working toward this goal.

However, experts note that to triple renewable capacity by 2030, an annual growth rate of 4% is needed – whereas current growth remains at 2% or less.

The world is also lagging in achieving its target to double energy efficiency.

The hopeful sign is that Bangladesh – which currently lags in renewable energy deployment – is expected to significantly increase its capacity by 2030, meeting its target. Moreover, Bangladesh’s annual growth rate in energy efficiency is 1.5%, indicating that the country is on track to meet its goal.

In an interview with Energy and Power, Dr.

Shahi Md.

Tanvir Alam, a Bangladeshi researcher working with the Czech Republic’s Just Transition Project, said: ‘The European Union has set a target to achieve 43.5% renewable energy capacity by 2030, but in reality, it aims for 45%.

In 2023, EU countries invested a total of USD 1.18 billion in expanding renewable energy, while at the same time providing USD 204 billion in subsidies for fossil fuels.

At this investment rate, the renewable energy target will not be achieved. Moreover, to double energy efficiency, an annual growth rate of at least 4% is required, but currently, it is only 2-3%.’ Although there has been little visible progress globally in reducing fossil fuel consumption, massive investments are being made in carbon reduction technologies – such as carbon capture and storage (CCS). Countries like China are investing heavily in renewable energy, but they continue to maintain substantial investments in fossil fuels as well. Meanwhile, the world has embraced nuclear power as a form of non-carbon electricity.

Apart from a few European countries, many nations are now planning large-scale investments in nuclear energy.

It is being observed that both developed and emerging economies are increasing their investments in domestic energy sectors – particularly in military and security spending – thereby reducing their capacity to contribute to climate finance.

However, M. Zakir Hossain Khan, Cofounder and Managing Director of Change Initiative, disagrees with this justification.

He stated: ‘Last year, the world invested more than USD 4.0 trillion in the military sector and provided USD 1.3 trillion in fossil fuel subsidies.

Investing in the military for self-defense will not protect them from future environmental risks.

Therefore, the Global South must become more active in pressing these countries to invest in climate action.’ Climate negotiations are, in essence, driven by two forces – science and politics. Within the framework of the UNFCCC, decisions are not taken through democratic voting but through consensus.

As a result, global climate negotiations are controlled by politics rather than science, causing repeated failures in both strategy and implementation in addressing climate impacts.

Still, hope remains.

The Belém summit presents an opportunity to revive global commitment and rebuild trust.

Brazil’s leadership, rooted in both moral authority and environmental symbolism, could help steer negotiations toward meaningful outcomes. For that to happen, delegates must move beyond empty pledges and focus on actionable commitments: transparent carbon reporting, accelerated renewable energy transitions, and equitable climate financing mechanisms that empower the most vulnerable.

If COP30 can restore the spirit of shared responsibility that once defined global climate action, it may yet keep the 1.5°C goal alive.

The world cannot afford another round of promises without progress.

The time for hesitation has passed – what Belém needs to deliver now is conviction, cooperation, and a clear roadmap for survival.