The world may once again express political support in Belém for keeping the 1.5°C goal alive. Still, it would be unrealistic to expect any global consensus on the actions and financing required to achieve it.
at the same time, major developed and emerging economies continue to rely on fossil fuels while increasing investments in technologies to reduce emissions, delaying the energy transition.
advocate Hafij Khan made these remarks during a conversation with Mollah Amzad Hossain, Editor of Energy and Power.
advocate Khan is a climate finance expert and Founder and Director Centre for Climate Justice-Bangladesh (CCJ-B), member of multiple global working groups, including the SCF-SDF, GCF-CE, and the Advisory Group to the Executive Director of the Loss and Damage Fund under the World Bank. COP30 negotiations on various climate agenda items are ongoing.
the first week of technical-level discussions is coming to an end. How much progress has been made? Look, COP negotiations follow a continuous process.
in that sequence, during the first week in Belém, deliberations moved forward on climate finance, the mitigation work program, the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA), transparency frameworks, and more.
the number of indicators for the adaptation framework has been brought down below 100, which is positive. But it would be wrong to say that there has been any breakthrough.
there remains a considerable gap between the expectations of developing-country negotiators and the positions of developed countries. Now the unresolved issues are moving to ministerial-level negotiations.
i don’t want to be pessimistic; certainly, we may see progress in some areas.
usually, negotiators receive political direction from the Leaders’ Summit at the beginning of a COP. What was achieved this time? Normally, the Leaders’ Summit takes place in the first few days of the COP, but this year it was scheduled at the last moment for 6-7 November.
the Summit produced a declaration emphasizing the protection of multilateralism in climate action. Leaders from both the Global South and North reaffirmed their commitment to keeping the 1.5°C goal within reach. However, they offered no commitments on the financing needed, whether for the climate funds or for adopting ambitious NDCs.
one pledge came for USD 5.6 billion for Brazil’s proposed Tropical Forests Forever Fund. But no country offered new commitments to the Loss and Damage Fund, which is disappointing. Leaders from the US, Russia, China, and India-countries responsible for around 50% of global emissions-were absent. How is this affecting negotiations? You are absolutely right.
the absence of heads of state or government from these major emitters created frustration at the Summit.
this frustration is reflected in the declaration as well. We know that political signals from leaders help negotiators move forward. This year, such direction was missing, resulting in a somewhat disoriented first week of negotiations. Leaders from 134 Global South countries demanded a tripling of grant-based adaptation finance and increasing public-sector contributions to climate funds. However, the Global North offered no meaningful response. Brazil invested heavily in climate diplomacy this year. How effectively is the COP Presidency steering negotiations on issues like finance and the 1.5°C goal? Yes, Brazil has engaged extensively in climate diplomacy. But it would be an exaggeration to say the Presidency is strongly driving COP30 towards turning commitments into action.
they are more active than Azerbaijan but weaker than the UAE’s presidency last year. However, it appears the Troika may try to deliver two roadmaps in the final week: The Baku-Belém Roadmap for USD 1.3 trillion, and a political declaration to keep 1.5°C alive.
the Loss and Damage Fund has so far received no new commitments at COP30. Yet the Fund has called for proposals for disbursing USD 250 million. How prepared is the LandD Board to deliver finance quickly? Under the Barbados Implementation Modalities (BIM), the LandD Fund has issued a call for proposals to affected countries. Each country now has up to six months to submit its project proposals based on its specific loss and damage contexts. Funding decisions will be made quickly once proposals are reviewed under BIM.
as far as I know, Bangladesh has already begun preparing its proposal and is expected to submit within the deadline.
one of the biggest items is the Baku-toBelém Roadmap for USD 1.3 trillion. Negotiations aim to determine how, and from which sources, this annual finance can be mobilized by 2035. How is this progressing? Look, despite good progress in the negotiation text, many issues still remain unresolved – meaning they are placed within brackets.
in Baku, countries agreed that from 2026, the global community would provide $300 billion annually to the climate fund.
the LDC Group is strongly pushing for a strategy to ensure this commitment is delivered.
at the same time, they have demanded the unpaid portion of the previously committed $100 billion per year. But on this issue, the gap between negotiators from developed countries and developing countries remains very wide. However, negotiations are progressing positively on the roadmap for mobilizing $1.3 trillion per year by 2035 from public, private, and innovative sources.
the COP Presidency is also trying to move this agenda forward. Civil society organizations around the world are pressuring COP30 to finalize the Belém Mechanism for Just Transition. They are demanding that a Just Transition roadmap be finalized within the next three years, starting from here.
is this issue on the negotiation table? Look, all climate impact-related work is linked to Just Transition.
although there are differing views, discussions are progressing positively. However, there is no sign that the civil society demand for a Belém Just Transition Roadmap will see any meaningful advancement in the negotiations. COP Belém is expected to adopt the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA). How far have negotiations progressed on finalizing the indicators-whether keeping them at 100 or reducing them? And what direction is the discussion taking regarding increasing adaptation finance, especially the demand that 50% of climate finance be allocated to adaptation? You are right. Work on this has been ongoing for a long time.
the indicators for adopting the GGA are now close to finalization. Based on these, national adaptation plans will need to be revised. This means that institutional and human capacity, as well as technological support, must be strengthened as part of the means of implementation.
this will require substantial financing. Beyond the long-standing demand for allocating 50% of climate finance to adaptation, the LDC Group is now demanding that adaptation finance be tripled and made grant-based.
even if COP30 adopts the GGA, it is unrealistic to expect significant progress on securing the required financing for its implementation. World leaders believe there is no alternative to keeping the 1.5°C goal alive to avoid a climate catastrophe. This is tied to emission reduction plans or NDCs, which require massive investment. How successful do you think COP30 will be in keeping the goal alive? The Troika’s core message is a very short sentence: ‘Keep 1.5°C alive.’ But achieving it is monumental.
the IPCC has already warned that global temperature is on track to reach 2.7°C in the early part of this century.
at Glasgow, the world agreed to keep 1.5°C alive and adopted the phase-down of coal decision. But momentum faded at Sharm El-Sheikh.
in Dubai, the decision to transition away from fossil fuels revived hope. However, now several major polluting countries are arguing not for reducing fossil fuel use, but for using technologies to reduce emissions. Meanwhile, the world has fallen behind the Dubai goals of tripling renewable energy capacity and doubling energy efficiency by 2030.
to achieve net zero, greenhouse gas emissions must fall by 60% by 2035 – but the world is far off track.
the NDC Synthesis Report shows that even if all 64 updated NDCs are fully implemented, emissions would fall by only 17% by 2035 compared to 2019 – far below what is needed.
therefore, the world must adopt much more ambitious NDCs. But the countries responsible for 50% of global emissions are not showing a strong willingness.
the Mitigation Work Program must also be significantly strengthened.
and all this requires huge investments, which must come from developed countries. But there is no assurance of that.
it seems likely that the Belém Declaration will once again reaffirm the commitment to keep 1.5°C alive. But how it will be achieved – that remains a big unanswered question.